Weekly Articles "Road to Riches" by Rich 'Tighty' Prew
The Road to Riches weekend of 21st-22nd May
Coming Up this weekend
- Football, the final weekend of the Premier League, with the final place in the top 4 still undecided and the League One Play-Off final between Bradford City and Scunthorpe United.
- Racing, Flat meetings at Doncaster, Newbury, Newmarket and Thirsk. Jumps fixtures at Bangor and Uttoxeter.
- Tennis, ATP and WTA Rome
- Golf, on the US Tour the AT&T Byron Nelson in Dallas and on the European Tour the Rocco Forte Open in Italy
- Cricket, the IPL 2017 final in Hyderabad on Sunday, Rising Pune Supergiants v Mumbai Indians .
- Rugby Union, the Aviva Premiership play off semi finals: Exeter v Saracens and Wasps v Leicester.
French Open Tennis (Roland Garros) 28th May to 11th June 2017
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French Tennis Open (Roland Garros) (28th May – 11th June 2017) |
Includes outright market analysis and all of Nigel's match write-ups with details of all the bets.
Royal Ascot (Full package) 20th-24th June by Neil Channing
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Royal Ascot (Full Package) 20th - 24th June 2017 |
The full package includes all five days of Neil's analysis and write ups plus details of all the bets that we have.
Free Tip:
Aviva Premiership semi-final Saturday 20 May Exeter Chiefs v Saracens (2.45pm);
After Saracens’ victory over Clermont to retain the European Rugby Champions Cup their quest to win the “double double” and retain the Aviva Premiership trophy, a feat not achieved since the great Leicester side of 2001-02, takes them to the South West this weekend.
Saracens have achieved their prime objective. There is just a chance of a small dip in their determination and focus after their win. If that happens, Exeter, with their ability to keep the ball and test Saracens patience in defence could be the side to stop them.
Home advantage helps too. A fortnight ago Saracens picked a weakened team for the last league game of the season at Wasps with play off positions up for grabs and accepted the consequences of losing. The gamble worked in Europe, which has clearly been their priority in a crowded schedule all season
It is strange that the showpiece ERCC final did not end the Northern Hemisphere season and it puts Saracens in an awkward spot with six of the team only three weeks away from the first game of the British Lions Tour of New Zealand. Preparation time for this trip to Exeter is limited and they have to get motivated again in between the massive games for any rugby players’ career that European finals and Lions tours represent.
Exeter recorded an eighth successive bonus-point win a fortnight ago against Gloucester and having finished level with Wasps on 84 points, they have had an extra week to rest and allow key men to regain fitness before meeting the side who beat them 28-20 in the Aviva final at Twickenham last year
Exeter have since improved markedly, outscoring Saracens by 20 tries over 22 games, and Rob Baxter, the Chiefs’ director of rugby, believes they are stronger mentally than 12 months ago, better prepared because they’ve been there before and they were the only side this season not to lose at Saracens drawing 13-13 in January. They have a considerable home advantage in the south west with a passionate crowd and won’t lose anything in the battles up front as they are a rugged team.
It’s not surprising to see Saracens favourites in the markets, best priced 1-2. Exeter as long as 7/4 and 5 point handicap underdogs is interesting for this situational spot though.
I give Exeter a real shot and think 7/4 is too long.
8 Points Exeter Chiefs to beat Saracens 7/4 Bet365 or Betfred.
Luck of the draw
With the British Lions only a couple of weeks away from their tough tour of New Zealand, which features a ridiculous schedule with matches against all five of the New Zealand Super18 franchises as well as three tests, these franchises are on the verge of a first in the Super18.
They have won all 17 games against Australian opposition so far this season. With only eight trans-Tasman contests remaining it is probable that the Australian teams will go the entire regular season without winning a single game against a New Zealand side.
Australian rugby is at a low ebb. Four years ago the last British Lions won a series there 2-1, thrashing the hosts 41-16 in the final test. Last summer England beat Australia down under 3-0. In between they reached the world cup final at Twickenham, helped by a fortunate draw in the knock out stages, but that papered over the cracks of a domestic game that has suffered from a drain of talent to the northern hemisphere and the salary riches on offer here.
Australian rugby’s decline has been coming for more than a decade and has its origins in the 1998-2004 period when the national side was the dominant team in Test rugby. Under coach Rod Macqueen the national side played a patterned style of rugby in which the field was divided into imaginary grids and players were programmed to perform tasks according to where they were positioned on the pitch.
This gave the Australian teams a tactical advantage for a while because players knew exactly what to do wherever they were on the field where for other sides rugby, blinking into the light of a new professional era, was predominantly an unstructured game. In due course opponents caught up but Australian rugby has often remained “rugby by numbers”.
Meanwhile the All Blacks and New Zealand franchises went in a completely different direction. They realised the most important factor was to turnover the ball and win possession in open play. Their five Super Rugby sides all focus on attacking from turnover ball and counter-attack when defences are not set.
This tactical shift by the New Zealanders was a response to Australia’s dominance in the Macqueen era. Macqueen recruited former rugby league internationals to coach the Wallabies’ defence and they were almost impossible to break down, conceding only one try in winning the 1999 World Cup.
The Wallabies’ rugby league-style defence worked well in structured play but was not as effective in broken play. Unlike league, union sees contests for possession which means the ball changes hands regularly. New Zealanders began to attack more and more from turnover ball.
There is a view that lack of depth is Australia’s major problem, particularly after the expansion to five Super Rugby teams, which is being reversed with one team folding at the end of this season as Super Rugby re-organises for next year. The Western Force and Rebels are the two Australian teams in the firing line after SANZAAR revealed last month that two South African and one Australian franchise will be axed from the competition.
A lot of good players are overseas too but Australian rugby also currently falls behind in a couple of areas notably coaching and the absence of effective high performance programmes to get young talent into senior teams quicker. In New Zealand a high performance programme is centralised and the off-loading in the tackle and conditioning of players is given top priority. In Australia high performance has too often been a political football, with each franchise following its own path.
Meanwhile this British Lions touring party has drawn the short straw, playing five franchises which would probably beat a good number of International sides. The side of four years ago in Australia and four years time in South Africa had/have far easier propositions.
Brodders Football Analysis
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Long term profit over 3+ years. Following all bets subscribers are winning £24,601 (£10 a point, average bet £150) +ROI 5.2% (correct at 08/05/17)
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Euro & other Football by Brodders (monthly) |
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Bookmaker reviews and advice
Getting the best price available is very important for all those who take their betting seriously.
Please open an account with all those bookmakers on the page on this link that you do not already have an account with using the links provided.
Betting Emporium results
The detailed results page has been updated as have the spreadsheets with the detailed bets. They can be found by clicking RESULTS
If you had bet £10 per point on every recommended bet since our launch in Feb 2013 you would be winning + £38,877.00.
All bets have an ROI +4.44%.
A £4000 bank (see FAQ re bank-roll requirements) betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth £42,877 an 972% increase
(correct at 08/05/17)
The Road to Riches Weekend of 13th-14th May
Coming Up this weekend
- Football, The Premier League programme sees big games at both ends of the table. Chelsea can win the title at WBA on Friday night. Crystal Palace against Hull is a key game at the bottom of the table.
- Racing, Flat meetings at Ascot, Haydock, Lingfield, Nottingham and Thirsk. Jumps fixtures at Hexham and Warwick.
- Tennis, ATP and WTA Madrid Opens
- Golf, The Players Championship at TPC Sawgrass, and on the European Tour the Portugal Open.
- Formula One, the Spanish Grand Prix in Barcelona.
- Rugby Union, the European Champions Cup Final Saracens v Clermont Auvergne at Murrayfield.
- Cricket, the final IPL group stage games ahead of the knockout phase next week.
French Open Tennis (Roland Garros) 28th May to 11th June 2017
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French Tennis Open (Roland Garros) (28th May – 11th June 2017) |
Includes outright market analysis and all of Nigel's match write-ups with details of all the bets.
Free Tip:
European Champions Cup Final Saracens v Clermont Auvergne, Saturday 13th May, Murrayfield
The climax of the ERCC this season sees holders Saracens defend their title against French side Clermont Auvergne, twice runners up in the competition in recent years, looking to win it for the first time.
Clermont beat Leinster 27-22 in Lyon to book their ticket to Edinburgh. After a brilliant start in a game played at frantic pace they were15-0 up and withstood a comeback to win.
They have a huge forward pack and one of the stand out players in European rugby with Camille Lopez at fly half. His poise, calm and pragmatism was crucial in the semi final with two crucial drop goals. Athough their back line has suffered a couple of key injuries it is lightning quick if that big pack secures them front foot ball.
Saracens are on a run of 17 games unbeaten in this competition the joint longest in European rugby history. They are in many ways the pre-eminent side of the last few years in European rugby, with a squad assembled with a big budget that has recruited a deep squad with pre-eminent talent and a lot of experience of these big games in recent years. Farrell, Itoje and Billy Vunipola especially are world class players and Kruis is the leading line out forward in Europe and back after a long injury lay-off.
Saracens are known for an effective but somewhat prosaic style. They are very street-wise and tactically astute. In this year’s knock-out stages Saracens have revealed the full range of their game. In the home quarter final Glasgow could not live with the speed, accuracy and intelligence of their attacking game. In the Dublin semi-final Munster found the defence of the champions impenetrable before Saracens upped the gears in the second half to win 26-10.
The battle between the two number tens here is going to be a great watch. Owen Farrell tops the points scoring charts with 113 having landed 24 penalties, 18 conversions and a try against Sale Sharks in round four. It was his break and scoring pass to Chris Ashton in the last minute of their pool clash at the Scarlets that saved Saracens' winning run.
While Farrell is deadly when points are on offer, Lopez is the creative force behind the Clermont juggernaut. Like Farrell, Lopez has scored one try in this year's competition, but his seven try assists show he has become the most creative outside-half in Europe.
Saracens have to be clear favourites and that is confirmed in outright prices, where Saracens 1-2 and Clermont 2-1 are the best on offer. Saracens are 5 point handicap favourites.
This should be very close for a long way and the handicap line is keenly pitched. The market I like here is “Winning margin” where Sportingbet have a Saracens win by 1-12 points at 6-4
10 points Saracens to win by 1-12 points 6/4 Betfred or Sportingbet
Trading Places
This weekend Chelsea are on the verge of regaining the Premier League title they won two years ago, only to finish tenth last season as Leicester City won the title..
The surprisingly symmetrical fates of these two clubs have reversed again this season. Chelsea are seven points clear with three games to go. Leicester sacked their manager this season, as Chelsea did the season after they last won the title, and have since recovered with 22 points gained out of a possible 30 under Craig Shakespeare. Chelsea also recovered after Mourinho was replaced by Hiddink last season. If Leicester finish below tenth, they will be the first team to win the title between two bottom-half finishes since Manchester City in 1968. If Chelsea win the league they will be the first-ever club to finish below seventh in between two title-winning seasons.
Clearly a number of factors go into these unusual trends. In Chelsea’s case Conte’s switch to a back three, with Kante/Matic in front allowed him to fit Luiz into a formation where his occasional defensive frailties were protected but where he could still launch attacks. In Leicester’s case Ranieri moved gradually away from the counter-attacking tactics that were so successful last season (in part because teams adjusted their play against them)
Four general reasons also have emerged. Leicester ran hot last season. A simple way to measure this is expected goals (xG). Last year Leicester’s goal difference was 15 better than xG would predict, while Chelsea were under expectation by 4 goals. This year, Leicester weree running 6 goals below expectation under Ranieri though that has improved since. Chelsea are 15 goals above xG over 35 games.
Secondly the transfer of Kante from one team to the other had marked effects on both. For Leicester last year Kante often won the ball unexpectedly and the team could counter-attack against opponents that were not defensively aligned. Leicester scored 26 of their 56 open play goals in “direct attacks” (at least 50% of ball movement went directly towards goal) last season. Kante made 156 interceptions, 10% more than any other player in Premier League history.
There was no great surprise that once he left, Leicester’s ability to counter attacked was lower. This season they have scored only seven of 34 open-play goals from counter-attacks. Meanwhile for Chelsea, a team that often has an abundance of possession and won’t generally score on the counter-attack, Kante has launched 5 counter attack goals. He’s also made 85 interceptions. Chelsea have conceded just three times from direct attacks, compared with 13 last season.
Thirdly the relative performances of the teams’ key flair players have reversed. Last season Mahrez was player of the season and scored 17 goals and had 11 assists. Meanwhile for Chelsea Hazard’s form disappeared and he scored four league goals. This season Mahrez has scored six league goals, three assists, Hazard has rebounded to score 15 with five assists
Finally the absence of European football has been a huge help for Chelsea this season. Last season Leicester had a more stable line-up than any other Premier League club. Ten of the squad were on the field for 86% of the total minutes played and this season with a run to the Champions League quarter finals rotation has been necessary and the incidence of injuries higher. This season, Chelsea have been the ones without European participation, maintaining near 90% commonality of line-up in Premier League games with players fresh for each league game.
In effect both the 2015-16 and 2016-17 seasons are Premier League anomalies where the contrasting form and fortunes of these two clubs are linked yet where the causes of relative success and failure are common between the two.
Brodders Football Analysis
Sign up to Brodders match analysis and recommended bets here for £50 a month. You are free to cancel at any time.
Long term profit over 3+ years. Following all bets subscribers are winning £24,601 (£10 a point, average bet £150) +ROI 5.2% (correct at 08/05/17)
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Euro & other Football by Brodders (monthly) |
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Bookmaker reviews and advice
Getting the best price available is very important for all those who take their betting seriously.
Please open an account with all those bookmakers on the page on this link that you do not already have an account with using the links provided.
Betting Emporium results
The detailed results page has been updated as have the spreadsheets with the detailed bets. They can be found by clicking RESULTS
If you had bet £10 per point on every recommended bet since our launch in Feb 2013 you would be winning + £38,877.00.
All bets have an ROI +4.44%.
A £4000 bank (see FAQ re bank-roll requirements) betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth £42,877 an 972% increase
(correct at 08/05/17)
The Road To Riches: Weekend of 6th -7th May
Coming Up this weekend
- Football, The Premier League programme includes West Ham v Tottenham tonight and Chelsea v Middlesbrough on Monday Night Football.
- Racing, the Guineas meeting at Newmarket. Also meetings on the flat at Doncaster, Goodwood and Thirsk. Jumps fixtures at Hexham and Uttoxeter
- Tennis, ATP events in Munich, Estoril and Istanbul as the clay court season ahead of the French Open continues.
- Golf, on the European Tour the Portugal Open on the USPGA the Wells Fargo Championship in North Carolina.
- Cricket, the domestic international season begins with ODIs against Ireland including on Sunday at Lords.
French Open Tennis (Roland Garros) 28th May to 11th June 2017
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French Tennis Open (Roland Garros) (28th May – 11th June 2017) |
Includes the outright and all Nigel's match analysis plus details of all the bets that we have!
Nigel is a long term winner on the darts. If you had bet £10 a point on all his tennis packages you would be winning £1281.20.
Free Tip:
The 2000 Guineas (Newmarket, Saturday 3.35pm) by Neil Channing.
I'm having 15 Points each-way Barney Roy at 4/1 1/5th 123 with Paddy Power and SportingBet (1/4 123 with Betfred is obviously good if you can).
Is football’s relationship with the gambling industry healthy?
In amongst the column inches last week for Joey Barton’s 18 month ban for betting including on matches he himself played in, there was a statement from Barton, part of which is quoted below
“I think if the FA is truly serious about tackling the culture of gambling in football, it needs to look at its own dependence on the gambling companies, their role in football and in sports broadcasting, rather than just blaming the players who place a bet.
Surely they need to accept there is a huge clash between their rules and the culture that surrounds the modern game, where anyone who watches football on TV or in the stadia is bombarded by marketing, advertising and sponsorship by betting companies, and where much of the coverage now is intertwined with the broadcasters’ own gambling interests.
That all means this is not an easy environment in which to try to stop gambling, or even to encourage people within the sport that betting is wrong.
If the FA is serious about tackling gambling I would urge it to reconsider its own dependence on the gambling industry. I say that knowing that every time I pull on my team’s shirt, I am advertising a betting company.”
He has a point. Burnley are sponsored by Dafabet and the shirts of nine of the Premier League’s other 19 clubs are also sponsored by gambling companies this season. Skybet sponsors the football league and Stoke City are owned by Bet365 to give other examples of the close links between the two industries.
Gambling companies like this space because it's a very, very efficient way to reach their core audience of sports bettors. The most bet upon sports product is football and within that the most bet upon football product is the English Premier League
The culture across football is very pro-gambling and Barton makes the case that football needs to change that culture. He is only the latest in a line of footballers who have had major gambling problems, for example Matthew Etherington and Michael Chopra.
Whilst it is possible to have some sympathy for Barton’s viewpoint it is a simple fact that nobody forces anybody to place a bet, the issues for these footballers concern addiction and lack of control.
John Bramwell, deputy chief executive of the PFA said:
“I think gambling now is very much in the public psyche when you look at the number of gambling companies that are involved in professional sport, not just football, but across the sports. When you watch football now there is a lot of information in front of you about how to bet, companies are making very tempting offers.”
As we all know watching televised football, breaks will flash up the latest ‘live odds’. What is perhaps less obvious is the degree to which gambling takes place among the players. The Professional Players Federation this year conducted a survey which concluded that a significant number of Premier League players ‘under-perform’ due to stresses about potentially dealing with big financial losses. Many high-profile players have since come out to describe the manner in which the ‘Premier League lifestyle’ lends itself so easily to betting problems, and how more needs to be done to tackle the issue.
It is said that the FA has 53 cases of footballers gambling on games within their own division pending. It is looking likely that we will see more of these charges being made in the coming months and years.
Barton’s conviction and statement raises the right sort of questions for the governing body. Is football’s relationship with the gambling industry healthy? Can they live together honestly and harmoniously? Are players given the right sort of advice? Most importantly for the avid supporter, can they trust what they see on the pitch?
Brodders Football Analysis
Sign up to Brodders match analysis and recommended bets here for £50 a month. You are free to cancel at any time.
If you had bet £10 a point on all Brodders' 2017 selections (average bet 15 points) you would be winning £5,770. Jan ROI+29.51% Feb ROI+8.34% Mar ROI+15.04%
Long term profit over 3+ years. Following all bets subscribers are winning £26,763.40 (£10 a point, average bet £150) +ROI 6.08% (correct at 22/03/17)
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Euro & other Football by Brodders (monthly) |
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Bookmaker reviews and advice
Getting the best price available is very important for all those who take their betting seriously.
Please open an account with all those bookmakers on the page on this link that you do not already have an account with using the links provided.
Betting Emporium results
The detailed results page has been updated as have the spreadsheets with the detailed bets. They can be found by clicking RESULTS
If you bet £10 per point on every recommended bet since launch you would be winning + £40,345.60 All bets have an ROI +4.82%.
A £4000 bank (see FAQ re bank-roll requirements) betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth £44,345.60 an 1009% increase
(correct at 22/03/17)
The Road to Riches: Weekend of 29th-30th April
Coming Up this weekend
- Football, The Premier League programme this weekend includes Everton v Chelsea and Tottenham v Arsenal plus the last weekend of the Football League season.
- Racing, the Sandown mixed meeting including the Bet 365 Gold Cup plus meetings on the flat at Doncaster, Haydock, Leicester and Ripon and on the all-weather at Wolverhampton.
- Snooker the final weekend of the World Championships at the Crucible in Sheffield.
- Formula One, the Russian Grand Prix in Sochi.
- Tennis, ATP events in Barcelona and Budapest as the clay court season ahead of the French Open continues.
- Golf, on the European Tour the Volvo China Open and on the USPGA the Zurich Classic of New Orleans in Louisiana.
- Cricket, IPL group matches continue with two double headers this weekend.
French Open Tennis (Roland Garros) 28th May to 11th June 2017
|
French Tennis Open (Roland Garros) (28th May – 11th June 2017) |
Includes the outright and all Nigel's match analysis plus details of all the bets that we have!
Nigel is a long term winner on the darts. If you had bet £10 a point on all his tennis packages you would be winning £1281.20.
Premier League Darts by Nigel Seeley
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Premier League Darts (Thu 2nd Feb – Thu May 18th 2017) |
The package includes the outright analysis and bets and weekly write ups all the way through to Finals Night
Nigel is a long term winner on the darts. If you had bet £10 a point on all his darts packages since 2014 you would be winning £1729.10 with a ROI +5.81%
Free Tip:
IPL 2017 Gujarat Lions v Mumbai Indians (Saturday 3.30pm Sky Sports)
Moving into the second half of the group phase matches in this year’s IPL the contrast between these two sides is quite marked.
Gujarat had a very disjointed start. Some questionable team selection strategies and one of the least effective bowling attacks in the competition meant that they lost thereof their first four games conceding 184/0, 174/4 and 140/1 to opposing batting line ups. Since then in large part due to the introduction of Australian bowler Andrew Tye who has taken 12 wickets in only five matches to be the second highest wicket taker in the competition, results have improved somewhat and Gujarat now have three wins from eight games, still sixth in the league table and outside the play-off spots. The heart of their batting line up, McCullum, Raina and Finch is competitive against any team.
Mumbai have been far more consistent, and come to the match after a week off in 2nd place with six wins from eight games. They have one of the better bowling line ups in the competition. McClenaghan and Bumrah who have combined for 21wickets so far and a batting line up packed with match winners deep into the order
It is that batting order that I wanted to focus on in one of the markets for this game, top Mumbai Indians batsman.
A typical Mumbai batting order this season is as follows
Parthiv Patel (169 runs in 8 matches)
Jos Buttler (230, 8)
Nitish Rana (266, 8)
Rohit Sharma (112, 8)
Kieron Pollard (199, 8)
Hardik Pandya (133, 8)
Krun Pandya (105, 7)
Now in this market the best prices available at sensible bookmakers are
Buttler 3/1
Sharma 100/30
Patel 4/1
Rana 9/2
Pollard 10/1
Pandya x2 16/1
It stood out to me quite clearly. Why is the uncapped 23 year old Indian batsman Nitish Rana fourth favourite here with three firms? He was the fourth best run scorer in the competition this season before this round of matches, he’s hit the most sixes (16) and he bats number three so the vast majority of the time sufficient overs at the crease is not a problem.
It can only be name recognition, or lack of it, by those setting prices.
Rana is fun to watch. Having waited a couple of years in the back end of IPL squads he was picked up by Mumbai for 2017 and he’s hit three 50s in this IPL and top scored the last time these two teams met.
He broke through in domestic cricket for Delhi in one day matches in 2015-2016 when he scored 299 runs and 21 sixes, both the most by any batsman in the tournament. He slumped in the recent domestic season and was dropped.At that point he sought advice on technical flaws from Gambhir and luminaries such as Tendulkar and Jayawardene.
He said this week
“Well I had a few technical issues. As my form dipped and I got out early in a couple of one-dayers, Gambhir spoke to me regarding my technique. After coming over here, I spoke to Sachin sir and Mahela sir regarding the same and both said that Gambhir was right and from the first day I started practicing that way.”
He could now well be included in India’s delayed Champions trophy squad for the tournament here in June.
The usual caveats about T20 betting exist. It’s one match in the shortest format of the game where variance in results and individual performances is high. Anyone can come off, or conversely get a good ball and be out quickly. Tat said, this does have the potential to be mispriced if Rana performs to the potential shown so far in the competition
8 points Nitish Rana Top Mumbai Indians batsman v Gujarat Lions 5/1 Skybet 9/2 Bet365 4/1 William Hill. (4/1 the lower limit)
Exceptional
Recent news that the NFL is considering disciplinary action against a group of players who took part in a charity arm-wrestling event in Vegas has brought renewed attention to the league’s policy on gambling which prevents players using their name to publicise any form of association with a casino. Because the competition was held at the MGM the players face fines for participating.
The current seven page NFL gambling policy was established in 2015 and applies to all NFL personnel. The policy is aimed at preventing the outcomes of games from being influenced by bettors which is obviously a sensible aim. However the policy also includes language about “gambling associations” and “advertising and promotional activities” that “reasonably can be perceived as constituting affiliation with or endorsement of gambling or gambling-related activities.”
At the same time the NFL sanctions various other activities that it accepts. These include:
- Many teams have sponsorship deals with daily fantasy companies.
- NFL owners were early investors in Draft Kings.
- Several teams are sponsored by casinos.
- State lottery advertising carried on training camp jerseys.
NFL policy makes a specific exception for traditional fantasy football (which it promotes on its own website) while making no mention of daily fantasy. The exception is all about money. The NFL’s earnings from fantasy football are expected to exceed the revenues from TV and attendances in due course and it is in the process of licensing fantasy football in Nevada before expanding around the country. Yet at the same time the NFL is in court to prevent New Jersey from legalising gambling on sport.
Meanwhile the league continues to expand the number of games it plays overseas, in markets like London where sports betting on the NFL is not only legal but growing fast.
The most obvious contradiction of all is the Oakland Raiders’ decision to relocate from to Las Vegas
Last October, with casino magnate Sheldon Adelson as a partner, the Raiders won approval from the state of Nevada for $750 million in public money to build a stadium.
One part of the NFL gambling policy prohibits “Using or allowing others to use one’s name and/or image to promote, advertise, or publicize casinos, other gambling-related establishments, or events sponsored by or otherwise marketed or advertised in connection with casinos or other gambling-related establishments.”
That doesn’t seem to apply to an NFL owner who had partnered with a casino owner to get approval for a publicly financed stadium.
Brodders Football Analysis
Sign up to Brodders match analysis and recommended bets here for £50 a month. You are free to cancel at any time.
If you had bet £10 a point on all Brodders' 2017 selections (average bet 15 points) you would be winning £5,770. Jan ROI+29.51% Feb ROI+8.34% Mar ROI+15.04%
Long term profit over 3+ years. Following all bets subscribers are winning £26,763.40 (£10 a point, average bet £150) +ROI 6.08% (correct at 22/03/17)
|
Euro & other Football by Brodders (monthly) |
|
|
|
|
Bookmaker reviews and advice
Getting the best price available is very important for all those who take their betting seriously.
Please open an account with all those bookmakers on the page on this link that you do not already have an account with using the links provided.
Betting Emporium results
The detailed results page has been updated as have the spreadsheets with the detailed bets. They can be found by clicking RESULTS
If you bet £10 per point on every recommended bet since launch you would be winning + £40,345.60 All bets have an ROI +4.82%.
A £4000 bank (see FAQ re bank-roll requirements) betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth £44,345.60 an 1009% increase
(correct at 22/03/17)
The Road to Riches Weekend of 22nd-23rd April
Coming Up this weekend
- Football, A partial Premier League programme with the FA Cup semi finals at Wembley. On Saturday Tottenham v Chelsea and on Sunday Arsenal v Manchester City.
- Racing, on the flat at Newbury, Nottingham and Thirsk. Over the jumps at Ayr and Bangor and Wolverhampton on the all-weather.
- Snooker the middle weekend of the World Championships at the Crucible in Sheffield.
- Tennis, ATP Monte Carlo Masters as the clay court season ahead of the French Open continues.
- Golf, on the European Tour the Shenzhen International in China. On the USPGA the Valero Texas Open in San Antonio.
- Rugby Union: European Champions Cup semi-finals, Clermont v Leinster in Lyon and Saracens v Munster in Dublin.
- Cricket, IPL group matches continue with two double headers this weekend.
French Open Tennis (Roland Garros) 28th May to 11th June 2017
|
French Tennis Open (Roland Garros) (28th May – 11th June 2017) |
Includes the outright and all Nigel's match analysis plus details of all the bets that we have!
Nigel is a long term winner on the darts. If you had bet £10 a point on all his tennis packages you would be winning £1281.20.
Premier League Darts by Nigel Seeley
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Premier League Darts (Thu 2nd Feb – Thu May 18th 2017) |
The package includes the outright analysis and bets and weekly write ups all the way through to Finals Night
Nigel is a long term winner on the darts. If you had bet £10 a point on all his darts packages since 2014 you would be winning £1729.10 with a ROI +5.81%
Free Tip:
Rugby Union European Champions Cup Semi Finals
The matches this weekend, at neutral venues in the home country of one of the semi-finalists, are as follows.
Fifteen of the 42 semi-final matches in the history of the European cup have been won by the ‘away’ club, only a 36% success rate. This is something for both Saracens and Leinster to overcome this weekend
Saturday, Dublin
Munster v Saracens
This could well be a close game for a long way, in part because Saracens’ Owen Farrell and Munster's Tyler Bleyendaal are such accomplished goal-kickers and this season’s tournament top scorers with 97 and 94 points respectively
Saracens are the ERCC holders and dispatched Glasgow with ease in their home quarter final, winning 38-13 with their trademark regimented style that they execute ruthlessly.
Probably the best team in Europe and defending champions this is their sixth ERCC semi final in the modern era and their side has a knowledge of how to win these sorts of games away from home (see Toulon in this season’s group stages where they won a classic). They are and should be favourites here despite having to play an Irish province in Dublin. George Kruis the world class second row is back from a long injury and his line out presence will help ensure the quality ball Farrell needs tolet Saracens play in the right areas
Munster are having a fine and emotional season following the death of their coach in October but what quality of opposition are they beating? Their ERCC group was significantly weaker than Saracens’ and here they are without their famed home advantage that makes them almost unbeatable in Limerick. Here they meet a formidable team. I don't expect Saracens to freeze. The absence of Conor Murray, Munster’s world class scrum half, makes me sceptical.
Saracens are 8/13 outright ( Munster 11/8),Saracens -3 at 10/11 is a viable alternative too
Sunday, Lyon
Clermont Auvergne v Leinster
Clermont, 2nd in the domestic top 14, dispatched Toulon 29-9 in their home quarter-final where they are a formidable proposition, on a tight ground roared on by passionate fans. Here they are without that advantage in Lyon and they also have a perceived issue to overcome, which is near misses in five ERCC’s in a row including losing two finals to Toulon.
Leinster, top of the Pro 12 having won 17 out of 20 league games this season beat Wasps 32-17 in their home quarter final but, with the draw for the knockout stages set before that stage, now have to go to France to play the top seeds in the tournament Leinster have been at the forefront of the renaissance of the Irish provinces in Europe this season and are an experienced side that forms the bulk of the Irish national team.
This should be very close and be won or lost on the battle up front. Leinster are brilliant in wider areas and have a mobile pack that will look to shift Clermont around. Clermont have a typical French top 14 approach, with a massive pack that will try to bludgeon and get superiority up front and play from there. If Leinster hold them and stay in the game, and they should do with a raft of Irish international forwards (albeit missing O'Brien and Heaslip), they have a decent shot as underdogs here
Clermont are favourites and have shortened into 8/15 or so and -3 at 10/11 just as Saracens are in Saturday’s semi. I am going for the upset though
10 points Leinster to win at 9/5 Betfair Sportsbook (7/4 Paddy Power) 8/5 William Hill 13/8 Ladbrokes
Blasted.
The England and Wales Cricket Board (ECB) plans to launch a new domestic T20 competition in three years time, to be played in eight cities, involving new franchises yet to be formed. This tournament will not include all the counties and will not encompass the nine Test match grounds
The prospect of this new tournament has been overwhelmingly unpopular with cricket watchers, a hardy breed of loyal (mostly quite mature in years) fans who just want to see their own team play it. The NatWest Blast has also been a success. Attendances at the competition have grown 63% in the last four years
The majority of the counties did not have much choice to vote it through. The recommendation being voted on included the line
“Each first-class county, which has signed the media deed, would receive a guaranteed minimum annual sum of £1.3 million.”
Most, especially those without test match revenue desperately need the money and are fearful for their futures. That said Essex joined Middlesex in saying they would vote against the change
“It is essential that the County Championship, domestic 50-over and T20 competitions are encouraged to grow, and they must be protected.”
"We believe that as a result of the proposed changes, these opportunities will be reduced, that our income overall will suffer and the first-class game will be diminished, in contradiction to the ECB's objective which is to grow the game in this country."
Domestic cricket in England is not a big-city game. At the county level it works best in places like Taunton, Worcester and Canterbury, that do not support football league teams. The ECB marketing belief is that if they inventsa team and market it cleverly to a large population, they will come. The England players will probably not be involved because they will be playing Test cricket.
Of course the financial upside here is clear, and takes Australia’s Big Bash league as its template. The BBL found new audiences, particularly with families and younger fans and the ECB is hoping to secure a terrestrial TV deal for the new T20 competition here. In Australia, with great weather and large grounds in the middle of their cities, those families have walked up many inspired by what they have seen on free‑to‑air television. That upside here (possibly more difficult to achieve given our weather) exists alongside the risk of alienating the existing supporter of T20 cricket.
In 2020 in England the plan is to guarantee that 10 of the T20 games will be shown on free-to- air TV, which is an interesting development. More than a decade ago, when cricket went onto satellite TV there were assurances from the ECB that viewing patterns were changing so rapidly that this would not affect the accessibility of the game to the public. Now comes the tacit admission that this was not the case.
There will be two T20 competitions rather than one in the 2020 season. The new one, which is designed to be the premier tournament, with three overseas players per squad, will take place in the last week of July and throughout August. The existing NatWest Blast is scheduled for the end of May and June and will inevitably be devalued. Clearly there is a place for a major T20 tournament in the UK with all the trimmings, but is there really space for two?
The ECB is turning its back on the T20 Blast success and embracing a high-risk strategy that involves new teams and new identities. If the same money went into marketing the existing competition and brands as they are expecting to be invested in the new one then you could get the best of both worlds, attract new audiences and take the existing one along too.
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