Weekly Articles "Road to Riches" by Rich 'Tighty' Prew
The Road to Riches Weekend of 28th-29th January
** A date for your diary: Our 2017 pre Cheltenham dinner with our expert panel will be on Saturday March 11th in London **
Coming Up this weekend…
- Football, FA Cup fourth round weekend. The African Cup of Nations Quarter finals.
- Racing, Jumps meetings at Cheltenham, Doncaster and Uttoxeter. All weather meetings at Kempton Park and Lingfield.
- Tennis, The final weekend of the Australian Open.
- Golf, on the European Tour the Qatar Masters in Doha. On the USPGA the Farmers Insurance Open at Torrey Pines.
- Cricket, The second T20I between India and England in Nagpur. In Australia the Big Bash League final between the Perth Scorchers and the Sydney Sixers..
Premier League Darts by Nigel Seeley
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Premier League Darts (Thu 2nd Feb - Thu May 18th 2017) |
Includes the outright analysis and bets and weekly write ups all the way through to Finals Night!
Nigel is a long term winner on the darts. If you had bet £10 a point on all his darts packages since 2014 you would be winning £1729.10 with a ROI +5.81%
Free Tip
NFL Super Bowl
Our Super Bowl package includes all Neil's Super Bowl game analysis PLUS all his infamous prop bets with several write ups covering all the markets you expect, and more. Look out for Neil's article "What to Expect for Your Money and One Free Bet" in the next 48 hours too.
Subscription to the package costs £25 here
This (a joint effort between Neil and myself) is a taste of the analysis you can expect for £25, as part of ten plus bets over the next week.
Here we will cover the First Touchdown scorer market.
First things first, which team might get the ball first? The legendary Patriots coach Bill Belichek really established the trend now prevalent in the NFL for teams to win the toss and defer (kick the ball away to the opposition so as to get the ball at the start of the second half). Up to 70% of games see a deferral over the 2014-2016 seasons. We’ve covered reasons for this before, ranging from the possibility of an extra possession in the game by having the ball at the end of one half and the start of the next and having the ball at the start of the second half after half time adjustments and when the crowd is quiet.
Suffice to say the Patriots are very likely to defer. The Falcons head coach Dan Quinn (a coach with a defensive background) tends to defer too. This approach is slightly at odds with the results it produces as the Falcons defense has had problems starting games all season. For example they gave up touchdowns on the opening drive of six consecutive games against the Chargers, Packers, Bucs, Eagles, Cardinals and Chiefs during the regular season yet still (most recently in the play-offs against the Seahawks, who scored on the opening drive) they defer.
All in all, especially at a neutral venue, not much to suggest one team is more likely than the other to get the ball first.
This season the Falcons were the highest scoring team in the NFL with 540 points in the regular season or 33.8 points per game and this average figure increased in the second half of the season. The Falcons have a lot of weapons, playing in an innovative scheme and the skill players are supported by a very good offensive line to protect the quarterback, where a previous weakness in the early years of Matt Ryan’s career has become a roster strength.
In the conference Championship game against the Packers, eight Falcons players had receptions, which is not atypical for them but for a First touchdown scorer bet this is an issue. Any of those 8 are candidates, plus at least 5-6 on the other side.
Opening drive touchdowns though have become a given in Falcons games. Going back to mid November Atlanta have scored a touchdown on their first possession for 8 games in a row. Atlanta took the opening kickoff in the NFC Championship Game (they were deferred to) and marched 80 yards on 13 plays to score a touchdown, to give the most recent example.
Here of course the Falcons go against The Patriots’ number one defense (15.6 points per game given up) and the old adage is that “defense wins championships” but in this market we are only concerned with the first score.
All the above considered we are going to concentrate on the Atlanta offense and try to narrow down a first touchdown scorer list and consider how a great coach will try to stop this offensive juggernaut. It has almost become a cliché to say (and so successful has he been at it) that Belichek always looks to take the main threat away from the opposition in his defensive scheme. Here that is the superb wide receiver Julio Jones. The expectation is that he will have him double covered (Malcolm Butler, with safety help) and try not to get beaten deep by big plays. Much like when a previous iteration of the Patriots took on a hugely explosive offense “the greatest show on turf” the St Louis Rams in 2001 and beat them (as big Super-bowl underdogs), the aim is to disrupt the flow of the offense, chip receivers at the line of scrimmage and make it much tougher for the quarterback to have open skill players, and particularly here make sure Julio has as tough a time as possible..
Assuming the primary aim is to limit Jones’ effectiveness that creates opportunities elsewhere, most notably in the number of players the Patriots can commit to defending the run (“in the box” near the line of scrimmage). In the running game Atlanta have a formidable one-two punch.
Devonta Freeman and Tevin Coleman combined for 2,482 yards from scrimmage and 24 touchdowns this season, the most of any duo in the NFL. In the divisional round victory over the Seahawks the pair combined for 102 rushing yards, 102 receiving yards and a touchdown apiece. In the Conference Championship game big plays in the passing game were prevalent, yet the pair still combined for nearly 150 yards and a touchdown each.
Freeman tends to get the first down work, Coleman is particularly effective on third downs. Coleman's 13.6 yards-per-catch were better than any running back in the league this year. The Atlanta offensive coordinator (and probably the new San Francisco 49ers head coach) whose scheme has proved so effective is Kyle Shanahan and Coleman was quoted this week as saying that he appreciates how hard Shanahan works to create positive matchups for the backs by splitting them wide among other wrinkles, even though it can make for "a lot of plays and a lot of things for us to remember."
Obviously this market is fraught with difficulty for this game with so many potential options. This is somewhat reflected in it being a market with a 8-1 co-favourites of three (Freeman, Julio and Blount) and no less than eleven players shorter than 20-1 in the betting.
The argument for Tevin Coleman is about his effectiveness in this scheme and the likely match-up in this game and at 12-1 generally he’s under-rated compared to Freeman here
10 points Tevin Coleman First Touch down Scorer Super-Bowl LI 12-1 Bet365, BetVictor, William Hill
A 48 Team World Cup
Before the first anniversary of his election win, new FIFA President Gianni Infantino's ruling Council approved his flagship manifesto pledge and from 2026, 16 more teams will qualify for the World Cup finals. Infantino’s plan involves 48 nations playing in 16 groups of three teams, with the top two progressing to a 32-team knockout stage. There are 211 countries in FIFA and so nearly a quarter of them will qualify. Infantino’s original proposal was for a 40-team World Cup, made to persuade floating voters from various FIFA confederations during the presidential campaign.
FIFA’s internal research has suggested the expanded format will increase revenues by from the finals by £800m, raising total profits from an event to £3.5bn. In addition there will be additional places for under-represented continents like Africa, which only has five places in Russia in 2018 whilst Europe will have 14 finalists, despite being similar-sized confederations. The 48-team format adds no additional burden for players because teams can still only play a maximum of seven games. The number of games rises from 64 to 80 but the tournament is still completed in 32 days and within 12 stadiums.
Despite those benefits, there are many who have criticised the expansion, particularly among the sport's traditional powerhouses. The German federation president said: "My main worry is that the attractiveness of the matches will suffer."
His view is probably influnced by Euro 2016 which expanded from 16 to 24 finalists and produced some humdrum group stage games. The more limited teams became adept at defensive tactics designed to frustrate more talented opposition. Some of these “limited” teams did well, though, and some bigger teams struggled to adjust to their tactics.
One commentator opined that a 48-team World Cup "will only add to the ennui around the international game. What it will do is reward the pedestrian, the unexceptional, those who could not exist in a genuinely elite environment." Another countered that “"A three-team group offers intriguing possibilities There will be little room for countries trying to play it safe in the opening match. As for FIFA's floated idea of every group match being settled by penalty shoot-outs to prevent a result in the final match being contrived, why not? We are happy to accept that happens in all the knock-out games, so why be so precious about the group matches?”
The new format ensures there will be fewer early eye-catching head-to-heads between leading sides. With the tournament starting with 16 groups of three, the potential 16 European finalists will be separated. So there won't be a repeat of games such as the 2014 group stages when Germany played Portugal and England met Italy.
"The general level of football is increasing all over the world," Infantino said. "Increasing the size of teams that can participate in the World Cup will increase the investment in football development."
Whilst of course the original plans for this expansion were all about FIFA politics elections and money, Infantino’s argument for the expansion of the World Cup to accelerate global growth of the game is clear. It remains to be seen whether it will be a televisual spectacle to match the tournament we are used to.
Brodders Football Analysis
Brodders Football Analysis: January 2017 to date: +£3481 betting £10 a point, +ROI 52%
Last year Brodders followers betting just £10 a point won £15,780 with a ROI + 11.09%. Sign up to Brodders match analysis and recommended bets here for £50 a month. You are free to cancel at any time.
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Euro & other Football by Brodders (monthly) |
- Long term profit over 3 years. Following all bets subscribers are winning £19,292 (£10 a point, average bet £150) +ROI 4.84%
Bookmaker reviews and advice
Getting the best price available is very important for all those who take their betting seriously.
Please open an account with all those bookmakers on the page on this link that you do not already have an account with using the links provided.
Betting Emporium results
The detailed results page has been updated as have the spreadsheets with the detailed bets. They can be found by clicking RESULTS
£10 per point on every recommended bet since launch in Feb 2013 would be winning £32,622 (as at 13th January 2017)
All bets have an ROI +4.21% and Horse Racing has a ROI of +6.25%
A £4000 bank (see FAQ re bank-roll requirements) betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth £36,620 an 816% increase
The Road to Riches: Weekend of 21st-22nd January
** A date for your diary: Our 2017 pre Cheltenham dinner with our expert panel will be on Saturday March 11th in London **
Coming Up this weekend…
- Football, The Premier League fixtures include Manchester City v Tottenham Hotspur. African Cup of Nations Group fixtures continue.
- NFL, The Conference Championships to decide the Super-Bowl teams. In the NFC the Atlanta Falcons host the Green Bay Packers, in the AFC the New England Patriots host the Pittsburgh Steelers.
- Racing, Jumps meetings at Ascot, Haydock and Taunton. All-weather meetings at Lingfield and Newcastle.
- Tennis, The middle weekend of the Australian Open.
- Golf, the Abu Dhabi HSBC Championship and on the USPGA the CareerBuilder Challenge at PGA West
- Cricket, England’s ODI series in India concludes with the 3rd match of the series in Kolkota. The Big Bash League continues in Australia with the final matches in the Group stages.
- Rugby Union, the final round of European Champions Cup Pool games over the weekend
NFL: The Play-Offs and Super Bowl LI
Playoffs package includes: 22nd January: Conference Playoffs. Anyone who signs up to our Playoffs package for £50 will automatically get the £25 Super-Bowl package for free
Super Bowl package includes all Neil's Super Bowl game analysis PLUS all his infamous prop bets.
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NFL Playoffs (Jan 7th - 22nd 2017) |
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Super Bowl LI, Houston, Texas (Sunday Feb 5th 2017) - Includes all of Neil's prop bets on the Super Bowl. |
Australian Open Tennis by Nigel Seeley
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Australian Open Tennis Championships (Jan 16th - 29th 2017) |
The full package is £50 and includes the outrights, all Nigel's match analysis and details of all the bets that we have.
Nigel is an excellent long term winner on the tennis with an ROI +3.84%. If you had bet £10 a point on all darts bets on this website since we launched 3 years ago you would be winning £1299.90
Free Tip
European Rugby Champions Cup: Round 6 Toulouse v Connacht (Sunday 3.15pm)
The final round of pool matches in this season’s European Champions Cup take place this weekend. So far Leinster, Munster, Clermont and Saracens have qualified for the last eight and games this weekend will decide not only the full quarter-final line up but the seedings, with the top four teams gaining all-important home advantage.
Toulouse at home to Connacht is the game of the weekend. Last weekend Toulouse put up a fine performance against Wasps in Coventry and led with a few minutes to go, at which point they were in control of the group. They lost to an opportunist Wasps try with the last play of the game. Connacht meanwhile beat Zebre comfortably and currently lead the group on 18 points.
Wasps are highly likely to reach 22 points with a five point win at Zebre and have the tiebreaker over Connacht so to win the group the Irish province is going to need a bonus point win here, which has to be seen as highly unlikely at Toulouse. Thus it is more likely they are fighting for one of the three runners up spots and losing by less than seven points is the first crucial aim.
Toulouse need to win with a bonus point or stop Connacht getting a bonus point of their own to make it into the last-eight as a very dangerous wild card side
In some ways the fortunes of Toulouse, one of the powerhouses of French Rugby, mirrors those of the national side. In an era where French clubs in general ruled European competition playing with flair and imagination Toulouse won the predecessor competition to the Champions Cup the Heineken cup in 2010 and were French top 14 champions in 2011 and 2012. From 2013 onwards they’ve only made the quarter-finals in Europe twice and not at all in the last two years. They’ve also been less successful domestically, slipping to 5th in the Top 14 last year.
This year, things are looking up. The style is more attractive to watch, with the off-loading game creating more opportunities and they are 4th in the Top 14 and one result away from making it back to the European knockout stages. In common with many French teams there is a big split between home and away form. They’ve won 6 out of 7 home Top 14 games and have only won 3 of 9 away from home.
Connacht were the “Leicester City” of rugby in winning the Pro 12 last year and like the comparison domestic form has ebbed away this season with only 4 wins in 12 games in their league. Their home form in Europe where they beat Wasps, Toulouse and Zebre has them in contention for the last eight still, despite a 15 point loss away at Wasps.
Logic says Toulouse here but that’s no surprise. Toulouse are as short as 1/7 to win the game (Connacht 6/1) and 13 point handicap favourites. Connacht will be fighting tooth and nail for at least a losing bonus point, which would mean they comfortably cover the handicap. They are going to struggle against Toulouse’s power up front though. Toulouse have to score at least four tries and get a bonus point of their own, after all. A Toulouse win by 2-3 scores looks the most likely result to me, which in winning margin markets translates to Toulouse by 11-20 points
At the time of writing most bookmakers are offering 11-15 and 16-20 which when dutched at top prices (PaddyPower) produces 2/1+. Betfair Sportsbook offer us 11-20 at 13/5. I’d take any quote I saw over 2/1 as markets populate over the next 48 hours.
10 points Toulouse to win by 11-20 points at 13/5 Betfair Sportsbook
(or 5 points each Toulouse to win by 11-15 points and 16-20 points at 5/1 William Hill)
Kolpak and Brexit
There has been a recent rush of South African International cricketers joining English counties ahead of the 2017 season and becoming unavailable for international selection. Amongst six South African “Kolpak” players this winter Kyle Abbott and Rilee Rossouw have joined Hampshire and David Wiese has moved to Sussex in the last fortnight. More are expected to follow imminently.
South African domestic cricket pays significantly less than English county cricket and with the South African rand weakening the gap is widening. South African cricket also has a quota system. In September last year, Cricket South Africa announced that a maximum of five white players can be picked in their International teams. This means some white players, such as Abbott and Rossouw, may not get as many chances to play for South Africa and are hence choosing to move to England.
Each English county is only allowed to field one overseas player (or two in the NatWest Blast) and by signing Kolpak players they can effectively upgrade their squads with overseas players without counting them as such. Last season there were 12 Kolpak players in county cricket. In Rugby Union, English rugby teams had no fewer than 72 Kolpak signings in their squads.
The Kolpak rule means that citizens of countries that are part of European Union Association Agreements, which are free trade treaties between the EU and other countries, have the right to work in EU countries.
The rule was made when Maros Kolpak, a Slovak handball player, appealed to the European Court of Justice that he should not be considered a non-EU player in the German handball league as he was a resident of Germany and a citizen of a country that had an Association Agreement with the EU. Kolpak had lost his contract with his German club as they already had two non-EU players. The court ruled in his favour.
South Africa is part of a trade deal with the EU, the Cotonou Agreement, and Kolpak applies. In 2009, the British Home Office ruled that to sign a Kolpak deal, a player must either have a valid work permit for four years in the UK or have earned a specified number of caps in international cricket.
Kolpak players over 18 do not qualify to play for England until they have played seven years for a county and have gained citizenship. Kolpak players can return to play for their home country at the conclusion of their overseas deals.
One of the many potential side effects that went un-noticed during the EU referendum campaign (incredible since there can’t have been many more important things to consider ) was what the result would mean for county cricket. Once Britain leaves the European Union, Kolpak contracts will not be possible. Hence why there is a rush now from counties and Kolpak-eligible players to sign deals before Brexit takes effect and we now know the UK leaves the single market and the ECHJ jurisdiction.
Players are currently able to sign multi-year contracts that will last beyond Brexit. Yet they may still have to leave after Britain departs the EU and that’s likely to produce conflicts between players, clubs, governing bodies and the Home Office. So far, existing Kolpak players who have sought guidance on this from the government haven’t had an answer back.
The debate about the merits of Kolpaks in cricket has been fierce. Some think that the influx of foreigners deprives young English players of opportunities. There is though also recognition that they raise standards across the game.
Brodders Football Analysis
Brodders Football Analysis: January 2017 to date +£2310 betting £10 a point, +ROI 45.7%
Last year Brodders followers betting just £10 a point won £15,780 with a ROI + 11.09%. Sign up to Brodders match analysis and recommended bets here for £50 a month. You are free to cancel at any time.
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Euro & other Football by Brodders (monthly) |
- Long term profit over 3 years. Following all bets subscribers are winning £19,292 (£10 a point, average bet £150) +ROI 4.84%
Bookmaker reviews and advice
Getting the best price available is very important for all those who take their betting seriously.
Please open an account with all those bookmakers on the page on this link that you do not already have an account with using the links provided.
Betting Emporium results
The detailed results page has been updated as have the spreadsheets with the detailed bets. They can be found by clicking RESULTS
£10 per point on every recommended bet since launch in Feb 2013 would be winning £32,622 (as at 13th January 2017)
All bets have an ROI +4.21% and Horse Racing has a ROI of +6.25%
A £4000 bank (see FAQ re bank-roll requirements) betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth £36,620 an 816% increase
The Road to Riches: Weekend of 14th-15th January
Brodders Soccer Write Ups - now including African Cup of Nations - subscribe for £50 a month here (cancel any time)
Bet365 - still offer the best sign up bonus of all. If you don't have an account you need one for the AFCON. Deposit £10 or more and get a 100% matched amount to bet with up to a max of £200. – This is not a just free bet, stakes are returned on winners. So deposit £200 and get £400 to bet with on the African Nations Cup. - CLAIM NOW
Bet365 are also offering streaming for the below so that you can watch the AFCON!
Matches are listed below with exclusions.
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14-Jan |
Saturday |
16:00 |
Soccer |
CAF African Cup of Nations |
Gabon v Guinea-Bissau |
Not available in Gabon, Guinea-Bissau, MENA and USA |
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14-Jan |
Saturday |
19:00 |
Soccer |
CAF African Cup of Nations |
Burkina Faso v Cameroon |
Not available in Burkina Faso, Cameroon, MENA and USA |
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15-Jan |
Sunday |
16:00 |
Soccer |
CAF African Cup of Nations |
Algeria v Zimbabwe |
Not available in Zimbabwe, MENA and USA |
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15-Jan |
Sunday |
19:00 |
Soccer |
CAF African Cup of Nations |
Tunisia v Senegal |
Not available in Senegal, MENA and USA |
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16-Jan |
Monday |
16:00 |
Soccer |
CAF African Cup of Nations |
Côte d'Ivoire v Togo |
Not available in Côte d'Ivoire, Togo, MENA and USA |
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16-Jan |
Monday |
19:00 |
Soccer |
CAF African Cup of Nations |
Congo DR v Morocco |
Not available in Congo DR, MENA and USA |
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17-Jan |
Tuesday |
16:00 |
Soccer |
CAF African Cup of Nations |
Ghana v Uganda |
Not available in Ghana, Uganda, MENA and USA |
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17-Jan |
Tuesday |
19:00 |
Soccer |
CAF African Cup of Nations |
Mali v Egypt |
Not available in MENA and USA |
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18-Jan |
Wednesday |
16:00 |
Soccer |
CAF African Cup of Nations |
Gabon v Burkina Faso |
Not available in Gabon, Burkina Faso, MENA and USA |
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18-Jan |
Wednesday |
19:00 |
Soccer |
CAF African Cup of Nations |
Cameroon v Guinea-Bissau |
Not available in Cameroon, Guinea-Bissau, MENA and USA |
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19-Jan |
Thursday |
16:00 |
Soccer |
CAF African Cup of Nations |
Algeria v Tunisia |
Not available in MENA and USA |
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19-Jan |
Thursday |
19:00 |
Soccer |
CAF African Cup of Nations |
Senegal v Zimbabwe |
Not available in Senegal, Zimbabwe, MENA and USA |
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20-Jan |
Friday |
16:00 |
Soccer |
CAF African Cup of Nations |
Côte d'Ivoire v Congo DR |
Not available in Côte d'Ivoire, Congo DR, MENA and USA |
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20-Jan |
Friday |
19:00 |
Soccer |
CAF African Cup of Nations |
Morocco v Togo |
Not available in Togo, MENA and USA |
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21-Jan |
Saturday |
16:00 |
Soccer |
CAF African Cup of Nations |
Ghana v Mali |
Not available in Ghana, MENA and USA |
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21-Jan |
Saturday |
19:00 |
Soccer |
CAF African Cup of Nations |
Egypt v Uganda |
Not available in Uganda, MENA and USA |
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22-Jan |
Sunday |
19:00 |
Soccer |
CAF African Cup of Nations |
Cameroon v Gabon |
Not available in Cameroon, Gabon, MENA and USA |
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22-Jan |
Sunday |
19:00 |
Soccer |
CAF African Cup of Nations |
Guinea-Bissau v Burkina Faso |
Not available in Guinea-Bissau, Burkina Faso, MENA and USA |
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23-Jan |
Monday |
19:00 |
Soccer |
CAF African Cup of Nations |
Senegal v Algeria |
Not available in Senegal, MENA and USA |
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23-Jan |
Monday |
19:00 |
Soccer |
CAF African Cup of Nations |
Zimbabwe v Tunisia |
Not available in Zimbabwe, MENA and USA |
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24-Jan |
Tuesday |
19:00 |
Soccer |
CAF African Cup of Nations |
Morocco v Côte d'Ivoire |
Not available in Côte d'Ivoire, MENA and USA |
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24-Jan |
Tuesday |
19:00 |
Soccer |
CAF African Cup of Nations |
Togo v Congo DR |
Not available in Togo, Congo DR, MENA and USA |
Coming Up this weekend…
- Football. The Premier League returns, including Leicester City v Chelsea on Saturday evening and Manchester United v Liverpool on Sunday. The African Cup of Nations starts on Saturday.
- NFL. The Divisional round of the play-offs. Two games on Saturday, two games on Sunday as the top two teams in each conference host the wild card game winners.
- Racing Jumps meetings at Kempton Park, Warwick and Wetherby, All-weather meetings at Lingfield and Wolverhampton.
- Tennis: In the week before the Australian Open, ATP Events in Sydney and Auckland.
- Golf: the BMW South African Open on the European Tour and the Sony Hawaii Open on the USPGA
- Cricket, England’s ODI series in India begins in Pune on Sunday. The Big Bash League continues in Australia.
- Rugby Union- the penultimate round of European Champions Cup Pool games over the weekend
NFL: The Play-Offs and Super Bowl LI
Playoffs package includes: 14th/15th January: Divisional Playoffs, 22nd January: Conference Playoffs. Anyone who signs up to our Playoffs package for £50 will automatically get the £25 Super-Bowl package for free
Super Bowl package includes all Neil's Super Bowl game analysis PLUS all his infamous prop bets.
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NFL Playoffs (Jan 7th - 22nd 2017) |
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Super Bowl LI, Houston, Texas (Sunday Feb 5th 2017) - Includes all of Neil's prop bets on the Super Bowl. |
Australian Open Tennis by Nigel Seeley
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Australian Open Tennis Championships (Jan 16th - 29th 2017) |
The full package is £50 and includes the outrights, all Nigel's match analysis and details of all the bets that we have.
Nigel is an excellent long term winner on the tennis with an ROI +3.84%. If you had bet £10 a point on all darts bets on this website since we launched 3 years ago you would be winning £1299.90
Free Tip
European Rugby Champions Cup
Saturday 5.30pm Glasgow v Munster (Sky Sports 2)
With two rounds of pool games to go before the line up for the Quarter-finals is decided, this is the key match in pool 1 where Munster are top on 16 points and Glasgow second on 13 points. Last weekend Munster played superbly against Racing 92 in their re-arranged fixture. The French champions were poor but that should not detract from Munster’s performance in winning in Paris.
Munster have been also-rans in Europe for several years but have matured nicely this season. A teak tough pack features one of the break out players in European rugby in back rower CJ Stander alongside veteran leaders such as Peter O’Mahoney and Donnacha Ryan while they have the form number nine in European rugby in Connor Murray with, if conditions allow, plenty of flair outside in the likes of Zebo and Earls
Glasgow are superbly coached by Gregor Townsend and their team, as befits the most successful Scottish franchise, forms the core of the Scotland national team featuring the likes of Stuart Hogg, Finn Russell, Tommy Seymour, and Jonny Gray. Glasgow has found domestic form in the Pro 12 in the past month and beat Leicester comfortably at Scotstoun earlier in the pool too.
Munster are in a position to qualify as best runners-up should they lose on Saturday but there is no floor for Glasgow. They have to win this game and, probably, their final match in the East Midlands (although a best-placed runners-up berth is possible with seventeen or eighteen points). Glasgow’s issue, compared to Munster, has been picking up bonus points having got only one for scoring four or more tries. Munster have picked up three bonus points.
The two teams have played already twice this season. In the ERCC Munster won 38-17 at home despite playing much of the match with 14 men and in the Pro 12 more recently Munster won 16-15 in Glasgow. Munster have one key factor in their favour for games such as these, namely their defence. So far in the pool they have conceded 42 points and only three tries in 4 games, the best in the competition. In the Pro 14, where they sit second, they’ve conceded just 155 points in 12 games. This defence will I think make the difference here in a real 50-50 game.
Munster are 6/5 underdogs for the game (or 10/11 +2 points on the handicap) These prices are fine but bet I like is the “winning margin” and for Munster to win a close one
9 points Munster to win by 1-10 points 9/4 Coral 21/10 Betfair Sportsbook
Brighton in Bloom
Brighton have lost in the Championship play-offs in three of the last four seasons and last season would have been promoted with their points total in 19 of the last 20 seasons. Going into this season, Ante post prices had Brighton around 10-1 for the title behind the short priced favourites Newcastle at 2-1.
After the first half of this season they are top of the Championship, 17 games unbeaten. and have lost only 2 out of 24 matches conceding 15 goals with clean sheets in nearly 60% of games. Longer term, Brighton have only lost 7 of their last 70 Championship games conceding 57 goals
For Brighton fans it has been a long road to this point. From leaving the Goldstone Ground their journey has taken them to 11 points adrift at the bottom of the league, playing 70 miles away in Gillingham and then the Withdean athletics stadium and then multiple planning applications for a new ground
The key moment arrived in 2009, when Tony Bloom assumed majority control of the club and he has since invested more than £200million in the club including £93m funding central to the move to the Amex Stadium.
This investment has offset the lack of parachute payments that so many Championship clubs at the top of the division in any given year have had. Brighton announced a loss of £25.9m for the financial year to the end of the 2015-16 season following on from a loss of £10.4m the year before, The larger loss was mainly because of investment in the playing squad. Brighton remained compliant with FFP regulations which permit a club's losses to reach an aggregate of £39m over a three-season period.
"Any Championship club without parachute payments wishing to compete for promotion will inevitably make significant losses," Bloom said at the time of the results. "It remains a delicate balancing act for the board as we strive to achieve our ultimate aim."
After the last play off failure in May the short term option would have been to balance the books and consolidate. Instead the club rejected bids of around £25m total for key players Dunk, Knockaert and Stephens and stuck with Hughton, giving him a new 4 year contract. There was only modest investment in new players but retention of players and off-field stability has given Brighton continuity that has paid off handsomely.
A few years ago Brighton played beautiful football under Gus Poyet, without necessarily the end result to show for it. After Poyet there were mis-steps along the way, notably under Sami Hyppia in the first half of the 2014-15 season but the subsequent appointment of Hughton has added a pragmatism to Brighton’s approach.
FFP rules and losses to date do give this season a “now or never” feel for Brighton but if they do make it the combination of investment, a big catchment area for supporters and the stadium/training facilities mean there is the potential for the club to be in the Premier League for a long time. For Brighton fans, who since the mid 1980s have seen all the lows league football has to offer and with the big game against Newcastle coming up, their team is currently eight points clear of third place, 13/10 to win the title, 1/9 to go up and promotion to the Premier League which was unthinkable only a few years ago is now tantalisingly close.
Brodders Football Analysis
Brodders will be following the African Cup of Nations, and the Preview is live now with outright group and top goalscorer bets.
“I'm going to be doing a preview of the African Cup of Nations and covering that tournament with the first games taking place on Saturday.'
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Euro & other Football by Brodders (monthly) |
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- Long term profit over 3 years. Following all bets subscribers are winning £20,216 (£10 a point, average bet £150) +ROI 5.71%
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Betting Emporium results
The detailed results page has been updated as have the spreadsheets with the detailed bets. They can be found by clicking RESULTS
£10 per point on every recommended bet since launch in Feb 2013 would be winning £34,185 (as at 26th October 2016)
All bets have an ROI +4.75% and Horse Racing has a ROI of +6.84%
A £4000 bank (see FAQ re bank-roll requirements) betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth £38, 185 an 855% increase
The Road to Riches Weekend of 7th-8th January
Coming Up this weekend…
- Football. FA Cup 3rd round weekend. All Premier League fixtures are West Ham v Manchester City, Everton v Leicester City, Hull v Swansea and Sunderland v Burnley
- NFL The start of the play-offs, wild card weekend with the 3rd-6th seeds in each conference playing in four games over the weekend.
- Racing Jumps meetings at Sandown, Newcastle and Wincanton. All weather meetings at Kempton and Wolverhampton.
- Tennis: The run up to the Australian Open with the Hopman Cup in Perth and ATP Tournaments in Brisbane, Chennai and Doha.
- Golf: USPGA Tournament of Champions at Kapalua in Hawaii.
- Cricket, The Big Bash League continues in Australia.
NFL: The Play-Offs and Super Bowl LI
Playoffs package includes: 7th/8th January: Wildcard games, 14th/15th January: Divisional Playoffs, 22nd January: Conference Playoffs. Anyone who signs up to our Playoffs package for £50 will automatically get the £25 Super-Bowl package for free
Super Bowl package includes all Neil's Super Bowl game analysis PLUS all his infamous prop bets.
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NFL Playoffs (Jan 7th - 22nd 2017) |
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Super Bowl LI, Houston, Texas (Sunday Feb 5th 2017) - Includes all of Neil's prop bets on the Super Bowl. |
Australian Open Tennis by Nigel Seeley
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Australian Open Tennis Championships (Jan 16th - 29th 2017) |
The full package is £50 and includes the outrights, all Nigel's match analysis and details of all the bets that we have.
Nigel is an excellent long term winner on the tennis with an ROI +3.84%. If you had bet £10 a point on all darts bets on this website since we launched 3 years ago you would be winning £1299.90
Free Tip
The First match of the NFL play-offs sees the Houston Texans host the Oakland Raiders. (Saturday 9.35pm on Sky Sports1)
With Brock Osweiler and Connor Cook starting at Quarterback the over/under for the game is 36.5 points .There hasn't been a lower total in the NFL, regular season and play-offs included, since December 23, 2012. It is the second lowest play-off game points total expectation for a decade.
For the Texans, Quarterback has been an issue for several years. The strength of the defense has kept them competitive but has meant that they have drafted too low to find a franchise quarterback and last off-season they took the plunge in free agency giving Brock Osweiler a mighty contract, which he has struggled to justify. In week 15 Osweiler was finally benched for Tom Savage after throwing back to back interceptions. Osweiler has been benched by two different coaching staffs in two consecutive years with the play-offs on the line. The passing offense immediately sprung into life under Savage.
Last week against the Titans, having already won the division to ensure a home play off game this weekend, Tom Savage suffered a concussion and Osweiler was back in, and with Savage absent for at least this weekend Osweiler starts this match.
For Oakland, a tremendous season and a likely AFC West divisional win (with bye week to follow) was sawn off when Quarterback Derek Carr broke his leg midway through week 16. Such was Carr’s importance to an emerging team that in one fell swoop the team that was seen as Super-Bowl contenders was seen as being play-off also-rans. Matt McGloin replaced him for the Week 17 game in Denver and, compounding the team’s bad luck, exited with an injured shoulder. Oakland lost, The Chiefs won in San Diego to win the division, sending Oakland to Houston in this wild-card round with a rookie third string quarterback Connor Cook playing on the road in the playoffs in his first start. He will become the first QB in the Super -Bowl era to make his first NFL career start during the postseason. The Texans allowed just 214 passing yards per game to opposing passers in the regular season, second to only Denver so its likely to be a baptism of fire.
All these factors are how the markets arrive at a 36.5 point over /under and the Texans 3.5 point favourites. Neil is going to discuss the spreads on Saturday in his play off package here.
Instead I looked at a couple of the sub-markets to see if these quarterback/offense issues that are of course well known gave an angle elsewhere.
I began to look at both defenses to try to back up the evidence of watching with my own eyes through the season. At first glance Oakland’s looks vulnerable. Their strength is up front, particularly with Defensive player of the year candidate Khalil Mack bringing pressure. However Oakland have had a problem in their secondary/passing game all season (which is why Carr’s presence in the offense is so important, he allowed Oakland to be competitive in high scoring games)
Oakland has allowed the most receptions of 20+ (61), 40+ (16) and most Touchdowns of 40+ (7).yards of any NFL team in the regular season.
However, when looking at how the Texans might take advantage of this weakness, I discover that Osweiler was 22 of 86 (25.6%) on passes 15 yards or further downfield on the season. Over the regular season the Texans had a -49 point differential, the fourth-lowest by playoff team since divisional realignment in 2002.
Houston’s defence is their real strength. In 8 regular season home games this year they conceded only 133 points, averaging under 17 per game. Despite being without JJ Watt a really good front seven and an under-rated secondary have presented challenges for all opponents especially at home.
With both passing games in trouble with these quarterbacks, I then looked at the running games. These both look more promising prospects than the aerial game. Houston ranked 8th in the league with 117 yards a game in 2016, with Lamar Miller rushing for 1073 yards. Oakland ranked 6th in the NFL at 120 yards per game rushing this season. Oakland had more of a committee approach at running back. Latavius Murray (788 yards) Jalen Richard (491 yards) and DeAndre Washington (467 yards) all had spells at lead back. Murray has been down to 30% of snaps for Oakland at running back in recent weeks.
Houston has the stronger rushing defense of the two teams, giving up 99 yards per game (12th in the league) compared to Oakland’s 117 (23rd in the league)
I have talked before about NFL away teams wanting to defer on winning the toss and kick to home side to have the first possession, thus getting the ball for start of second half, when a home crowd is quieter and they can benefit from half-time adjustments.
If there was ever a game where getting the ball first might not be an advantage in markets like first touchdown scorer this is it, but the prime candidate given the type of game this is likely to be has to be Lamar Miller. These two teams met in Mexico City earlier in the season and Miller ran for 104 yards and a touchdown and he is likely to get 20+ touches in this game and looks the most reliable first touchdown scorer option at 7-1 with Bet365, if we have to have a bet on anyone scoring a touchdown. It feels that sort of game. We'll see what Neil says!
Beyond the first touchdown scorer market it is likely that Houston will get the ball first. I would be quite surprised if they went down the field to score a touchdown. I would be far less surprised if they got into field goal range and that was the first scoring play.
First scoring play field goal is 11/10 in the markets. First scoring play Houston field goal is 100/30. Either side scoring a field goal as the first scoring play is an outsider to either side scoring a touchdown first, which is a standard pricing for an NFL game. I don’t think that is necessarily correct for this game though with this quarterback match-up and therein lies the opportunity.
Both sides have good field goal kickers, and the game is indoors. Nick Novak set a new single season Texans records for both field goals made (34) and field goals attempted (39), and 87% was Novak’s career best in what was a down year for kickers throughout the league. 39 field goal attempts backs up the relative lack of touchdowns in this offense in 2016.
The most conservative way to play “first scoring play” in an expected 36 point game would be to take the 11/10 on either side scoring a field goal. I prefer the 100/30 on the home side, likely with the ball first.
9 Points First Scoring Play Houston Texans field goal 100/30 BetVictor, Ladbrokes, Coral
A shadow of it’s former self
As I considered what to write about this week I tried to think who won last season’s FA Cup. I got there eventually. Manchester United. Now who did they beat in the final? I scratched my head and eventually remembered Alan Pardew dancing on the touchline. It was Crystal Palace, then. For me, a hard core sports fan who once could recite FA Cup final teams, results and scorers going back to 1970-something, this was somewhat of a shock.
The first week of the New Year and the FA Cup 3rd round has seen a now established ritual of pundits and fans bemoaning the FA Cup’s declining status and making suggestions about how to restore the competition’s relevance.
A generation ago the FA Cup was the premier competition of English football. The league determined who the best side was, but the glory was in the Cup. Cup-final Saturday was the showpiece event of the year, screened on two competing television channels. Third round weekend was much anticipated.
Back in the 80s, Bournemouth beating Manchester United and York City beating Arsenal felt like landmark events. The great shocks were part of the folk culture of the English game, and whilst they occasionally happen nowadays (Bradford beating Chelsea at Stamford Bridge was that rarity, a proper shock that got the pulses of all neutrals going), beating West Ham or Bournemouth reserves, with star players rested after the Christmas programme and ahead of the next Premier League games doesn’t quite hold the same cachet. The FA Cup third round’s position at the end of the heavy Christmas programme now often feels like respite for Premier League managers who can rest weary players against lesser opposition.
There have been a range of suggestions for how to restore the FA Cup to former glories lustre, ranging from the relatively sensible to the gimmicky, but the truth is that football has changed. Clubs can hardly be blamed if they prioritise the league. The FA Cup winners take home £1.8m in prize money; Last season, Leicester won over £100m for winning the league. A financial disparity like that matters in priorities for all the big clubs.
It’s hard also to avoid the thought that part of the allure of the FA Cup was that for a long time the final was the only match to be televised live. Even by the late 80s, there would rarely be more than a dozen league games screened. That added to the sense of showpiece about the final: it was just about the only day when England as one gathered to watch the same game. That sort of event television simply doesn’t exist in the same way any more.
Some of the lack of appeal of the modern FA Cup is self-inflicted by administrators. Minor irritants include doing the draw for the next round before games in the current round are completed and changing so many kick off times for television that the casual fan doesn’t know what to watch when. More clumsily, moving the final away from 3pm on a Saturday afternoon was an odd decision.
Suggestions to revitalise the competition include those that might well be supported and cause least concern such as removing replays, moving the semi-finals from Wembley and ensuring the cup final is once again the last game of the season . Some have even suggested changes that won’t ever happen (making the Champions League champions only, and restoring the Cup Winners Cup) but which it is felt have contributed to the decline of the FA Cup’s prestige. Some suggestions include seeding draws (say into pots as the Champions league does), and ensuring that matches are played at the home of the lowest seed to increase the possibility of giant-killings but perhaps the lower ranked team would need the option to choose to switch venue for bigger crowd revenue.
This year again the FA Cup will gain momentum from the last eight onwards as it always does. The simple fact is though that whatever changes are made to the format the days when it was the piece of silverware everybody wanted have passed. Life, football fans and football itself (especially with the Premier League and Champions League offering such rewards both in prize money and TV/commercial revenue) has moved on.
Brodders Football Analysis
If you had bet £10 a point (average bet £150) on all Brodders’ bets this year you would be winning over £15000
Sign up to Brodders match analysis and recommended bets here for £50 a month. You are free to cancel at any time.
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Euro & other Football by Brodders (monthly) |
- The Euros 2016 for subscribers. Results: +£4,098.30 (betting £10 a point, average bet about £150) +ROI 31.43%
- Long term profit over 3 years. Following all bets subscribers are winning £20,216 (£10 a point, average bet £150) +ROI 5.71%
Bookmaker reviews and advice
Getting the best price available is very important for all those who take their betting seriously.
Please open an account with all those bookmakers on the page on this link that you do not already have an account with using the links provided.
Betting Emporium results
The detailed results page has been updated as have the spreadsheets with the detailed bets. They can be found by clicking RESULTS
£10 per point on every recommended bet since launch in Feb 2013 would be winning £34,185 (as at 26th October 2016)
All bets have an ROI +4.75% and Horse Racing has a ROI of +6.84%
A £4000 bank (see FAQ re bank-roll requirements) betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth £38, 185 an 855% increase
The Road to Riches: New Year Weekend
Happy New Year.: Coming Up this weekend…
- Football. A full programme over the New Year period with two games in the next week for Premier League teams.
- NFL Week Seventeen of the NFL regular season with the Detroit Lions and Green Bay Packers playing to decide the winner of the NFC North as the play-off line up is finalised.
- Racing Jumps meetings on New Years Eve (including at Newbury) and New Years Day (including at Cheltenham).
- Tennis: the start of the 2017 season next week and the run up to the Australian Open with the Hopman Cup in Perth and ATP Tournaments in Brisbane, Chennai and Doha.
- Cricket, the third test between Australia v Pakistan in Sydney, the South Africa v Sri Lanka Cape Town test and the Big Bash League continues in Australia.
NFL: The Play-Offs and Super Bowl LI
Playoff package includes: 7th/8th January: Wildcard games, 14th/15th January: Divisional Playoffs, 22nd January: Conference Playoffs
Super Bowl package includes all Neil's Super Bowl game analysis PLUS all his infamous prop bets.
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NFL Playoffs (Jan 7th - 22nd 2017) |
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|
Super Bowl LI, Houston, Texas (Sunday Feb 5th 2017) - Includes all of Neil's prop bets on the Super Bowl. |
Australian Open Tennis by Nigel Seeley
|
Australian Open Tennis Championships (Jan 16th - 29th 2017) |
The full package is £50 and includes the outrights, all Nigel's match analysis and details of all the bets that we have.
Nigel is an excellent long term winner on the tennis with an ROI +3.84%. If you had bet £10 a point on all darts bets on this website since we launched 3 years ago you would be winning £1299.90
Free Tip
Perth Scorchers v Sydney Thunder (Big Bash, New Years Day)
This year’s Big Bash, the sixth iteration of the successful T20 competition in Australia, is a third of the way through its group stages. One of two games on New Years Day (starts 10.15am UK time) sees the Perth Scorchers featuring Ian Bell and David Willey host the Sydney Thunder.
Perth at home are a formidable proposition, with the travel to western Australia a disadvantage for every visiting team in a tight schedule and windy conditions at the WACA ground so unique. Perth are at the top of the league table after their three games played with 2 victories, including impressively at the Melbourne Renegades last time out, restricting the hosts to 148 and winning by four wickets.
Sydney Thunder have lost all three games played and the latest loss to the Brisbane Heat was sadly typical. The loss of early wickets with the bat didn’t help and then they were in a great position with the Heat 6-63 chasing 158 and the Thunder still lost
Perth are the strongest favourite of any home team so far in this competition at 8/11, with Thunder at 5/4. However it is the sub markets where there is an interesting bet.
Michael Klinger is the all time highest run-scorer in BBL history (1200 runs in under 40 innings) first with the Adelaide Strikers now with the Scorchers. Klinger opens the batting and he is often the player the team bats round. This has been the case for Klinger for many years. Now 35 years old, a technically correct batsman his batting style would seem best suited to the long format, but he has been an exceptional batsman in one-day and T20 cricket worldwide, where his correct stroke-play and good judgment of when to go aerial has been effective.
His T20 record is exemplary. He’s played nearly 130 games and scored nearly 4000 runs at an average of just under 40 and a strike rate of 125 with 40 scores of 50 or more. Klinger scored 72 last time out ( off 55 balls ) to set up the win against the Renegades.
There are the usual caveats for any T20 bet. It’s the shortest format highest variance form of cricket for both individual and team performances. Klinger though is a more reliable proposition than many in the format. Opening the batting he has to survive the power-play overs but if he does so his conversion rate into potential top scorers for his team is high.
The Scorchers are a strong team but their real strength is in the bowling line up. A top five of Klinger, the Marsh brothers, Bell and Turner with Voges to follow is workmanlike but not the deep explosive line up that some of the BBL teams put out game after game. This works in our favour if backing Klinger. Famous last words, there isn’t a 50 off 25 late order hitter in the Perth side to come out of nowhere and sink a bet from an opener who has compiled a 50 over 10 overs plus.
8 points Michael Klinger Top Perth Scorchers batsman (v Sydney Thunder new years day) 3/1 Bet365, 11/4 generally
Offensive Lines...
Week 16 results in the NFL saw the defending Super-bowl champions the Denver Broncos eliminated from play-off contention meaning that with the Carolina Panthers already eliminated neither of last year’s Super-bowl teams will make the post-season, as good an indication as any that parity is alive and well in the NFL as intended. With only a few spots left to be decided in this year’s play-offs starting next weekend, it looks like more than half of the teams in the post-season will be different than those that played in January last year.
One of the biggest indicators of success, or failure, this season has been the good/bad play from NFL offensive lines. An offensive lineman has one of the least sexy, but most important jobs in the NFL. Why are these players important?
- The offensive line is in charge of protecting the QB, the key position on any team.
- The offensive line has to give the QB enough time to throw a pass. Even the best QB in the world is ineffective if he can't get a pass off.
- The offensive line has to block for the QB and the running back, so there are a lot of different situations and ways that they have to move.
- The offensive line has to go up against often tremendous athletes: pass rushers from the Defensive Line as well as blitzers from other positions such as Linebacker and Secondary. People of all speeds, shapes, and sizes are trying to get past you.
With NFL scoring approaching an all-time high, the premium on having a solid offensive line to enable your offense to keep pace is soaring. This trend began around 2010-11. In the 2009 Super-Bowl the Giants used a ferocious pass rush to upset the undefeated Patriots in Super Bowl XLII. It served as a wake-up call for the league, a reminder that teams, even ones as explosive as that Patriots group was, have no chance to win if they can't protect the quarterback.
The template for this trend was established by the Dallas Cowboys, who used three first round draft picks on offensive linemen in the 2011-14 NFL drafts and these players are universally recognised as part of the best O-Line in the NFL today. Of course the right players need to be selected but the Cowboys have hit on all three, all-pros and the core of a unit that has created the protection and stability that has allowed rookies Dak Prescott and Zeke Elliott to enter the league and look so impressive.
Amongst teams in or near the play offs this year the following teams have invested significantly in their offensive lines and have begun to see the benefits:
Oakland Raiders: Primarily via free-agency, created a unit that has been at the heart of one of the most prolific NFL offenses
Detroit Lions: From having one of the worst groups in the NFL, the unit has really developed with the team having invested three of their last five first round draft picks on the offensive line.
Miami Dolphins: Something had to be done here too, the line represented a group of five human turnstiles three years ago. Since then two first round picks have been invested on offensive linemen, supplemented by free agent acquisitions. An effective running game this season is a key reason why the play-offs beckon and why the team can keep rolling despite the loss of their starting quarterback to injury a few weeks ago
Tennessee Titans. A combination of overhauling the running back position through free agency and drafting offensive line (including the most impressive rookie tackle for some time in Jack Conklin) to assist their new franchise quarterback Marcus Mariota have made this team competitive, reaching the edge of the play-off this year from being the worst team in the league in 2015.
Elsewhere the league is littered with threadbare offensive lines, sometimes shredded by injury and sometimes through (often years of) under-investment even on contending teams. The Panthers and Broncos, last year's Super Bowl teams, have two of the worst offensive lines in the league this year. Over the last six weeks, Cam Newton has completed just 91 of 201 passes, 45%, the third worst completion rate in a six game span since 1991 in large part because of lack of protection. The Vikings, who used five different starting-line combinations in their first nine games, saw their season implode in large part due to offensive line problems.
There are a few offensive lines so good they can push a team to the playoffs, but there are many more that are so middling, their organisations must work around them to avoid being shoved backward in the standings. The Seattle Seahawks for example, do so with a fine defensive unit and a mobile franchise quarterback but have still lost games primarily due to offensive line weaknesses, those games affecting their play-off seeding.
Across the NFL there are a number of challenges to developing strong offensive line play. The prevalence of spread offenses in the college game sees players across many positions, but notably a technical job like offensive lineman, come into the pro ranks a way off being ready. There are only so many big men with the footwork to protect effectively and the intelligence to work together to implement complicated offensive schemes. Once in the pros the last players union deal with the NFL limited the number of padded practices for all teams, so cohesion can be difficult to develop. Beyond that offensive lines are units, with five big men working as a group. Free agency has restricted the longevity of many units containing players that take some time to develop. The result for many teams is a shallow talent pool, and offensive lines in flux.
Even when a franchise commits to overhauling the offensive line, it doesn’t always go to plan if the scouting/ draft selection process is flawed. In a period spanning six drafts, the LA Rams used two No. 2 overall draft picks (in 2009 and 2014) on offensive tackles and in 2015 drafted no less than four linemen and still have one of the worst offensive lines in the league. In his rookie season running back Todd Gurley starred. This year, as the unit in front of him underperformed, he has become the first running back ever with 15 games in a single season of 10+ carries & less than 4 yards per carry. He has a chance to make it a clean season sweep in week 17 this weekend.
Finally there is the case of outright under-investment in the position. Since 2007 the New York Jets have drafted just two offensive linemen in the first three rounds, and neither player is still on the team. Amongst their myriad problems, addressing that in April 2017 has to be a priority.
No matter what the offensive line strategies are for NFL teams, sometimes you just need a bit of luck, or to avoid bad luck to be able to make the most of your offensive line investments. This past weekend two of the best young quarterbacks in the NFL Derek Carr and Marcus Mariota suffered broken fibulas during Week 16. For Carr, the tackle that caused the injury was the first time he had been touched by a defensive player all game. In the same game Andrew Luck was under pressure on 50% of his drop-backs.
Since the playoffs began in 1933, no Quarterback with 12+ regular-season wins has failed to start a postseason game. A really tough injury for the Raiders hopes in the post-season and when you look down the list of quarterbacks set to play in the AFC play-offs you realise that over and above anything remaining healthy is the best predictor of success
The Raiders, mentioned above, will start Matt McGloin at quarterback and the Dolphins Matt Moor in the AFC play-offs. Add to those teams the Texans moving to back up Tom Savage and the Chiefs quarterback Alex Smith, a “game manager”. The net result is a huge advantage for the Patriots (with all time great Tom Brady) and the Steelers (with Super-bowl winner Ben Roethlisberger) in this field, irrespective of the roster construction elsewhere of the other play-off teams.
Brodders Football Analysis
If you had bet £10 a point (average bet £150) on all Brodders’ bets this year you would be winning over £15000
Sign up to Brodders match analysis and recommended bets here for £50 a month. You are free to cancel at any time.
|
Euro & other Football by Brodders (monthly) |
- The Euros 2016 for subscribers. Results: +£4,098.30 (betting £10 a point, average bet about £150) +ROI 31.43%
- Long term profit over 3 years. Following all bets subscribers are winning £20,216 (£10 a point, average bet £150) +ROI 5.71%
Bookmaker reviews and advice
Getting the best price available is very important for all those who take their betting seriously.
Please open an account with all those bookmakers on the page on this link that you do not already have an account with using the links provided.
Betting Emporium results
The detailed results page has been updated as have the spreadsheets with the detailed bets. They can be found by clicking RESULTS
£10 per point on every recommended bet since launch in Feb 2013 would be winning £34,185 (as at 26th October 2016)
All bets have an ROI +4.75% and Horse Racing has a ROI of +6.84%
A £4000 bank (see FAQ re bank-roll requirements) betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth £38, 185 an 855% increase
