The Road to Riches: Weekend of 20th-21st January

Coming Up this weekend

- Football, Premier League fixtures include Manchester City v Newcastle United

- NFL, Play Offs: The Conference Championships.

- Cricket, the third ODI between Australia and England in Sydney on Sunday

- Racing, Over the jumps at Ascot, Haydock and Taunton. All-weather racing at Chelmsford City and Lingfield

- Tennis, the middle weekend of the Australian Open.

- Golf, the CareerBuilder Challenge at PGA West on the USPGA and on the European Tour the Abu Dhabi HSBC Championship

- Rugby Union, the final round of Pool Matches in the European Rugby Champions Cup

NFL Play offs

Neil's write up on this coming weekend's Conference Championships is available

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Super Bowl package includes all Neil's Super Bowl game analysis PLUS all his infamous prop bets.

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Australian Open Tennis by Nigel Seeley

Analysis of matches for the second half of the Australian Open

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European Rugby Champions Cup Pool Games Round 6 Leicester v Racing92 Sunday 1pm

Going into the last round of Pool matches this weekend, in Pool 4 Munster lead Racing92 by a point and for both five point (maximum bonus point) wins are crucial on Sunday to give themselves a shot at winning the pool first and secondly qualifying for the quarter finals as a runner up if not.

A reminder of the competition format: The five Pool winners and only the three best runners up make the knock-out rounds with the Quarter finals at the end of March.

Leicester are out of contention for the last eight and played a second string team in Castres last weekend and were beaten 39-0. Since their glory days and in recent years Leicester are in transition, cycling through head coaches as they search for a formula to compete domestically (they are down in 8^th in the Aviva Premiership, recently losing six in a row either side of Christmas) and in Europe.

One of the issues they have is a structural one, player age inflation is outstripping growth in the salary cap and so squad depth isn’t what it once was. This is being reflected in results of most of the English teams in the ERCC this season and it is possible that none of the five participants will make the last eight depending on this weekend’s results. Leicester have recruited “flashily” with Jonny May, George Ford and Matt Toomua helping give them a potent back line on paper but lack of speed in the back row is a real issue that is seen repeatedly when coming up against the better sides

Racing92 won a thriller, 34-30, at home to Munster last Sunday and will need a five point win (scoring four tries) here to stand a chance of winning the group or, more likely, a runners up spot for the last eight assuming Munster beat Castres with four tries which they should. Unfortunately for our ante-post bet the Racing win last weekend has probably cost Munster prime seeding (and possibly a home quarter final) assuming they do beat Castres

Of course last weekend’s game was on a “fast track”, the indoor U Arena in Paris and backing a French team away from home is an entirely different proposition. However Racing are a long way into a transition of their own, a side rebuilt after 2016 with a poor season last year but now becoming contenders again (3^rd in the Top 14) They have a big ball winning pack (the match up in the back row here particularly favours Racing) and finishers all over the back line. They will expect to win here and all eyes will be on scoring at least four tries.

The handicap quote of Racing -4 looks off to me,its moved in a couple of points after Leicester picked a team with 13 changes from last week including the return of their international players. Racing should though not only cover but could win by more than a score

10 points Racing 92 to win by 1-12 points at 7/4 SkyBet (11/8 William Hill)

Scorched.

Just after Australia regained the Ashes the seventh season of the Big Bash League began.Over the six previous years the Big Bash’s attendance has doubled. With an extra eight games this year that figure will be even greater and the BBL is expected to expand by a further 16 games soon, possibly heading abroad soon too. A the new TV rights deal begins next season and it should be worth a multiple of the current £11.5m per year contract. The BBL’s average attendance, with crowds full of families, is already among the world's top 10 sporting leagues.

The contrast with the marketing of England’s domestic T20 competition is obvious. England’s new Twenty20 competition which finally launches in 2020 is modelled on the BBL: It will be played in the school holidays, also has eight teams, and there will be a strict salary cap to ensure talent is spread across the teams. Like American sports leagues, the BBL is designed to produce competitive balance. The salary cap and limits on overseas players theoretically render dynasty-building impossible. In an age of growing home advantage in Test cricket, it gives domestic T20 leagues the advantage of unpreditability at the star tof any game.

However just like the NFL, say, where the New England Patriots have been able to overcome the rules designed to lead to competitive balance (all time great coaching and quarterbacking helps..) in the BBL’s six seasons the Perth Scorchers have made five finals. Since Justin Langer became coach, the Scorchers have won it three times in four years. As we reach the end of the group stages in this year's competition, they are top of the table again.

In the short term world of T20 competitions where players play in many teams depending on the tournament the Scorchers are different. This is a year round team because of the continuity between Western Australia’s sides in the longer formats and the Scorchers, all of whom are coached by Langer. That cohesiveness is vital to their success but so too is a professional approach not just on fitness but also in the use of data.

The Scorchers have developed programmes, equivalents of the baseball/Moneyball systems, that give indicators on the opposition, their own team and who they should select for the match-ups. A dossier produced for every match includes which Perth batsmen are best-suited to facing particular opposition bowlers, and which Perth bowlers are best-placed to restrict particular batsmen.

That approach extends to the Scorchers’ recruitment policy where the Scorchers have developed a database comparing their own players with others in various roles to highlight those who will make the biggest difference to the squad. Essentially the analysis allows them to see which overseas player will provide the most value to Perth’s squad, taking into account who they would replace in the side. The model has repeatedly hit upon obscure overseas recruits. Perhaps the best examples are Alfonso Thomas and Yasir Arafat, two quick bowlers with minimal international experience. Amongst players Perth have recruited from England are David Willey, Ian Bell and Tim Bresnan, the latter two long jettisoned from the England T20 international set up.

Ignoring the consensus that T20 is a game of big hitting and thatg is where resources need to be spent, Scorchers captain Adam Voges believes bowlers win T20 games. Accordingly, Perth normally pick five specialist bowlers. They have defended under 150 nine times in the past four years.

The signs for English teams in the two years before our new all singing all dancing T20 franchise tournaent launches is that adopting data analysis leads to a competitive advantage or will til at least everyone does it..

Brodders Football Analysis

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This week Brodders published an in depth ante post Champions League write up covering outrights/ groups/ goal-scorer bets

Long term profit over more than three years. Following all bets subscribers are winning £19,593 (£10 a point, average bet £150) +ROI 3.27% (correct at 3/1/18)

Bookmaker reviews and advice

Getting the best price available is very important for all those who take their betting seriously.

Please open an account with all those bookmakers on the page on this link that you do not already have an account with using the links provided.

There are literally hundreds of pounds on offer from bookmakers just for signing up through Bettingemporium.com

Betting Emporium results

The detailed results page has been updated as have the spreadsheets with the detailed bets. They can be found by clicking RESULTS

If you bet £10 per point on every recommended bet since launch you would be winning + £36,802 All bets have an ROI +3.49%

A £4000 bank (see FAQ re bank-roll requirements) betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth £40,802 a 920% increase

(correct at 3/1/18)

The Road to Riches Weekend of 13th-14th January

Coming Up this weekend

- Football, Premier League fixtures include Liverpool v Manchester City

- NFL, Play Offs: The Divisional Round.

- Cricket, the first ODI of a five match series between Australia and England, in Melbourne on Sunday

- Racing, Over the jumps at Kempton, Warwick and Wetherby. All-weather racing at Lingfield and Wolverhampton

- Tennis, ATP Sydney and Auckland, the final warm up tournaments before the Australian Open

- Golf, the Sony Open in Hawaii on the USPGA and on the European Tour the BMW South African Open

- Rugby Union, the penultimate round of Pool Matches in the European Rugby Champions Cup

NFL Play offs

Neil's write up on this coming weekend's Divisional Round games is available

Package for the playoffs is £50. Sign up here

The Remaining Playoff package includes: 13th/14th January Divisional Playoffs, 21st January Conference Playoffs. (There will be write ups on all games)

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Australian Open Tennis by Nigel Seeley

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European Rugby Champions Cup Pool 4 Racing92 v Munster Sunday 3.15pm

Munster lead Pool 4 with three wins and a draw so far and here face one of their toughest games against a resurgent Racing side who are second in the pool.

These two teams met in the pool stages last year Munster winning both 32-7 and 22-10, the former game an emotional occasion after the original fixture had been postponed due to the untimely death of Munster’s coach Anthony Foley. Earlier this season Munster beat Racing 14-7 in Limerick. Racing have two losses in the pool, losing narrowly in Castres too.

Racing are emerging from a transitional period and a down season last year after finishing runners up to Saracens in the 2016 European Cup. Racing have won their last four games, beginning with beating Castres 29-7 in this pool but it was the 58-6 victory over Clermont last weekend that was the real eye-opener, a result hat lifted them to third in the French top 14. Clermont had picked an inexperienced team for the tie, particularly in the backline, in a bid to rest players ahead of this weekend but still, eight tries by Racing was some going.

As with many French teams, a far more formidable proposition at home than away this is quite the task for a Munster side who have begun to concentrate resources on this competition with losses over the New Year period to Ulster and Leinster in the Pro 14 that has left them well adrift of Glasgow in their conference. These results followed home and away victories over Leicester in rounds 3 and 4 of the ERCC that allowed them to take charge of the pool.

This match has been given a little spice by Racing 92 announcing the signing of the charismatic Munster and Ireland back Simon Zebo five days before the sides meet in this pivotal match.

When on song Racing are a formidable proposition. A “big budget” side from Paris their pack is huge and if it secures front foot ball then the back line is a “who’s who” of finishers, set up by Machenaud and Dan Carter at half back, and led by wingers Imhoff and especially the giant Fijian Vakatawa.

Munster are well equipped to battle this one out though with a minimum aim of achieving a losing bonus point (losing by seven points or less) which should put them in prime position to qualify with Castres at home to follow in their last pool game, a game for which they will be prohibitive favourites. Their chances of doing so will depend on the core of the team which lies in the back row and at scrum half where Peter O’Mahoney and CJ Stander are one of the best defensive units in the world game for province and country and Conor Murray can help them play territory with his kicking game from number 9.That control is going to be essential to stay in the game for as long as possible.

Potential adverse weather won’t be a factor here. Racing now play in the new indoor U Arena.

Outright prices here are Racing 8/13 Munster 13/8 with Munster +4 on the points handicap.

I expect Racing to win and think it’s a huge ask to expect Munster to do so but equallyexpect the streetwise key Munster players to help limit the damage in the pool by getting that losing bonus point

12 points Racing92 to win by 1-12 points at 13/8 BetfairSportsbook, Skybet, 11/8 Ladrbrokes/Coral 5/4 William Hill

The Only Way is Up.

The Cleveland Browns finished the regular season 0-16, their fate sealed with a 28-24 loss to the Pittsburgh Steelers back-ups in Week 17. The loss was followed by an ironic 0-16 parade through the city by fans!

The defeat dropped coach Hue Jackson to a 1-31 record over two seasons, and the Browns joined the Detroit Lions who finished 0-16 in 2008. The 1976 Tampa Bay Buccaneers also finished winless in a fourteen game season.

Hue Jackson now has the most defeats by a coach over a two-season span in NFL history. Owner Jimmy Haslam has already announced that Jackson would return as head coach, saying "I don't think Hue has lost (his) magic." This was a surprise to most observers following a series of baffling in-game coaching and pre-game decisions that turned a team which on paper looked good enough to achieve 4-6 wins into a winless one.

Cleveland lost four games this season by just three points, but consistently shot themselves in the foot with one of the worst red-zone offenses in memory. Rookie quarterback DeShone Kizer led the league in turnovers for an offense that lacked identity mainly from the incomprehensible refusal to lean on the running game even when it was reasonably successful.

Looking ahead there is reason for hope from several factors, if not the coaching. In April’s 2018 Draft the Browns of course have the top overall pick and five selections over the first two rounds as part of the haul amassed in 2017 by now-jettisoned VP of football operations Sashi Brown. Beyond that they have three more picks through Rounds 3-4.

Sashi Brown effectively paid the price for the Browns not drafting Carson Wentz and DeShaun Watson last year but a now happy bi-product of the trade made by the Texans to move up for Watson is that as well as the top pick the Browns have pick 4 too,  the pick that was traded by the Texans. It just so happens that the 2018 draft is a strong one for quarterbacks and the decision over which of Rosen, Darnold, Allen and Mayfield they choose with the first overall pick is a key one

With a quarterback in place, the Browns could take Penn State running back Saquon Barkley with the No. 4 pick. Look at the effect Todd Gurley, Ezekiel Elliott, Leonard Fournette or Alvin Kamara have had on their franchises and Barkley appears to be a talent similar to those young players. Cleveland could also package some of their many later round draft picks to move up in the draft too and get a third first round draft pick.

The roster needs help from top to bottom but new general manager John Dorsey has some young players to build a roster around such as pass-rusher Myles Garrett, receiver Josh Gordon, running back Duke Johnson, Tight End David Njoku and defensive players Emmanuel Ogbah and Danny Shelton.

Add those high draft picks and hopefully take some of the projected $60m in available cap space to acquire free agents (Cleveland wide receivers combined for five TD catches this season. The Browns for example could use a big-time receiver via free agency to strengthen that group)  to the young players on the roster and all the ingredients are in there for a very rapid turn-around.

The usual caveats apply. The team has to talent spot well both in the draft and free agency and there remains a huge question-mark over the coaching but this will be an off-season worth watching as rarely do teams have the opportunity to change their playing staff so rapidly.

GM John Dorsey previously took over as general manager for a Kansas City franchise that was coming off a 2-14 season. He hired Andy Reid, who reinvented Alex Smith, and the Chiefs have reached the playoffs four of the last five seasons. This week he poached Eliot Wolf from the Packers to be his right hand personnel man.

Famous last words, even the Browns shouldn’t be able to mess this up if they give them the time to build.

Brodders Football Analysis

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This week Brodders published an in depth ante post Champions League write up covering outrights/ groups/ goal-scorer bets

Long term profit over more than three years. Following all bets subscribers are winning £19,593 (£10 a point, average bet £150) +ROI 3.27% (correct at 3/1/18)

Bookmaker reviews and advice

Getting the best price available is very important for all those who take their betting seriously.

Please open an account with all those bookmakers on the page on this link that you do not already have an account with using the links provided.

There are literally hundreds of pounds on offer from bookmakers just for signing up through Bettingemporium.com

Betting Emporium results

The detailed results page has been updated as have the spreadsheets with the detailed bets. They can be found by clicking RESULTS

If you bet £10 per point on every recommended bet since launch you would be winning + £36,802 All bets have an ROI +3.49%

A £4000 bank (see FAQ re bank-roll requirements) betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth £40,802 a 920% increase

(correct at 3/1/18)

The Road to Riches: Weekend of 6th-7th January

Coming Up this weekend

- Football, FA Cup third Round weekend.

- NFL, the start of the Play Offs: Wildcard Weekend.

- Cricket, the conclusion of the final Ashes Test in Sydney and the Big Bash League continues.

- Racing, Over the jumps at Newcastle, Sandown and Wincanton. All weather racing at Kempton and Lingfield.

- Tennis, the start of the new season and the run up to the Australian Open. ATP events this week in Brisbane, Chennai and Qatar.

- Golf, the Sentry Tournament of Champions at Kapalua GC in Hawaii.

NFL Play offs start tomorrow

Neil's write up on this coming weekend's Wildcard games is available

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Playoff package includes: 6th/7th January Wild Card games, 13th/14th January Divisional Playoffs, 21st January Conference Playoffs. (There will be write ups on all games)

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Australian Open Tennis by Nigel Seeley

Includes the outright markets, all the match write ups and details of all the bets that we have.

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The FA Cup Ante Post.

Over recent years there has been much written about the waning importance of the FA Cup as a competition, and in particular a disconnect between many top flight fans and their clubs who have demonstrably favour the Premier League in terms of their priorities.

For the clubs,this in understandable enough. At a financial level the FA Cup winners this year will receive prize money of £1.8m, equivalent to the sum awarded for finishing bottom in the Premier League, where the winners receive £38m and each position higher than 20^th receives several million more than the place below.

Against this, for sides unlikely to finish in the Premier League top six the FA Cup winners enter the Europa League at the group stage which might not be the carrot European football once was but is a carrot nonetheless. Or so you would think.

During the last several seasons fighting my growing urge to say “the FA Cup is not a bettable medium anymore, there are too many unpredictable variables if you include team motivation, rotation and priorities” I alighted on an ante-post plan that went as follows

• Sides who might finish in the top six of the Premier League have other priorities
• Sides who might get relegated have other priorities
• However sides who can’t make Europe via the league and can’t go down should really take the FA Cup seriously and have a real go. Some nice draws and the 33/1 will look handy indeed.

Then each season I would watch as sides like Southampton from a couple of seasons ago (not that I hold much of a grudge) pick a squad XI for third round matches and limply exit the competition

Even this season, I watched my own club Leicester City (who can’t go down and won’t finish top six) change eight players from Saturday to Tuesday for a League Cup quarter-final and proceed to lose on penalties against a second XI from a top six side. Just as well I didn’t fancy a trip to Wembley then.

However that game against Manchester City before Xmas was the moment another light bulb came on as I watched Zinkovic, Foden, Diaz, Adarabioyo and others knock it around for Man C. Of course the spending by the top six, Manchester clubs especially, in transfer windows has given top six sides two or sometimes three players per position and it is no longer sufficient to say “Top Six team x will rotate at Championship team y and will be vulnerable” The fact is that the second choice teams in their own right would finish in the top 14 of the Premier League. We don’t even have the perennial fallback of cup upsets caused by conditions. These days almost every side plays on decent pitches

We only need to look at recent FA Cup Winners. In the last decade there is one outlier, Wigan, but the remainder of the winners is a roll call of the big boys (Chelsea x 3,Arsenal x3,City,United). Teams like Palace, Villa, Hull, Stoke and Portsmouth have though made finals.

So this year instead of concentrating on a “they really should be taking this competition seriously” list which in my head this season was Leicester, Burnley and Everton (can’t reach top six, won’t go down), two of which are drawn away at top six sides anyway I thought I would find an angle for the top six sides, and to me that angle is the Champions League.

Five English teams made the last 16 of the Champions League. Furthermore Arsenal have made the last 32 Europa League and, maybe unlikely, but winning that competition is a route back into the Champions League that the Premier League might not provide them this year.

Of the Champions League clubs the draw was kind to City (Basel) not too bad for United and Liverpool (Porto and Sevilla), and tough on Tottenham (Juventus) and Chelsea (Barcelona).Ties are played in mid February, the midweek before and after the FA Cup fifth round

Manchester City will be fighting on four fronts come February and for Arsenal, Liverpool and Tottenham finishing in the Premier League top four is going to be a tight battle. When push comes to shove in February/March, we could see them select very young teams indeed selected in the middle rounds of the FA Cup.

That leaves Manchester United and Chelsea, where finishing outside the top four in the Premier League is unlikely. United should be more confident of progressing in the Champions League than Chelsea, who come the end of February could be left with the prospect of trying to finish second in the league and win the FA Cup, possibly after a Carabao Cup final. Of the top six sides it is they, with more depth than the squad had earlier in the season, that should be motivated to go deep in this year’s FA Cup assuming they lose to Barcelona over two legs.

Of course it is only January and there is the inevitable variance of the cup draws during each round.

Prices at the head of the market are

Manchester City 4/1

Manchester United  6/1

Chelsea 6/1

Tottenham 8/1

Arsenal10/1

Liverpool 10/1

Bar 33/1

10 points Chelsea to win the FA Cup 6/1 Bet365,William Hill,Betfred

Dropped In

With the Ashes series lost before the Melbourne Test, dare say live viewing figures from the UK would have been somewhat lower than earlier in the series. For those diehards still tuned in, the pitch for the match wouldn’t have helped. It was completely dead and completely unsatisfactory.

At a time when Test cricket faces multiple challenges from other cricket formats and other sports it was unhelpful. It was flat and slow but it wasn't easy to play shots on, while it didn't deteriorate at all and there was nothing in it for seam bowlers or spinners at any stage, the sort of pitch you might have seen on the sub-continent 30 years ago.

Of course it was a drop in pitch, cultivated and developed off-site and laid in the run up to the game. Essentially hard as a slab of concrete, turf packed into a vast metal tray simply deadens the ball on contact and the use of these pitches is part of a trend that is increasing through world cricket particularly at multi-use venues such as the MCG where pitch preparation in the winter months plays second fiddle to Aussie Rules. This winter, England play three of their seven Tests on drop-ins, in Adelaide, Melbourne and Auckland.

Interestingly, the trustees of the Sydney Cricket Ground the venue for the current final Test have refused to follow Melbourne and Adelaide, which became a multi-sports venue in 2013, even though the SCG also stages Aussie Rules. They would rather retain the integrity of the traditional cricket pitch and the greater scope it offers for interesting cricket with a balance between bat and ball and especially the deterioration of a pitch through the game, and they cover the cricket square during the Aussie Rules season.

In February the drop-in at Eden Park, Auckland (a rugby venue for six months of the year) could be as boring as Melbourne was. Auckland has been using drop-ins for 20 years and they have rarely been satisfactory so much so that the Auckland Test match, once an annual fixture, has now been staged only twice in the past 11 years.

Drop-in pitches are soon set to feature in England via an initiative to bring cricket to the Olympic Stadium for the 2019 World Cup. A trial match is due to be held there next summer to see if the general facilities are suitable for international cricket. The idea, though, is only to play one-day cricket there, not Tests.

Furthermore with the advent of the new T20 competition in 2019 many existing English venues face the prospect of more wear on small squares as the fixture schedule becomes ever more crowded. The alternative may be between playing matches on tired surfaces and likely low scoring games or dropping in “roads” for high totals and excitement. The latter will probably be seen as the lesser of two evils, with high scoring spectacles being key, but Test Match cricket is as yet untouched in the UK.

Brodders Football Analysis

Sign up to Brodders match analysis and recommended bets here for £50 a month. You are free to cancel at any time.

This week Brodders published an in depth ante post Champions League write up covering outrights/ groups/ goal-scorer bets

Long term profit over more than three years. Following all bets subscribers are winning £19,593 (£10 a point, average bet £150) +ROI 3.27% (correct at 3/1/18)

Bookmaker reviews and advice

Getting the best price available is very important for all those who take their betting seriously.

Please open an account with all those bookmakers on the page on this link that you do not already have an account with using the links provided.

There are literally hundreds of pounds on offer from bookmakers just for signing up through Bettingemporium.com

Betting Emporium results

The detailed results page has been updated as have the spreadsheets with the detailed bets. They can be found by clicking RESULTS

If you bet £10 per point on every recommended bet since launch you would be winning + £36,802 All bets have an ROI +3.49%

A £4000 bank (see FAQ re bank-roll requirements) betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth £40,802 a 920% increase

(correct at 3/1/18)

The Road to Riches Weekend of 30th-31st December

Coming Up this weekend

- Football, the Premier League fixtures see runaway leaders Manchester City at Crystal Palace on New Years Eve.

- Cricket, the final Ashes Test in Sydney begins on 3^rd January and the Big Bash continues.

- Racing, Over the jumps at  Haydock, Newbury and Taunton. All weather racing at Lingfield.

- Rugby Union, Aviva Premiership fixtures include Exeter v Leicester on New Years Eve

MustardBet are back!

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NFL Week 17 New Orleans Saints at Tampa Bay Buccaneers  Sunday 9.25pm

A few weeks ago this column recommended Mark Ingram first touchdown scorer, which went into the slightly unlucky loser column (a shorter column than the “that was a bad bet” one) after he was targeted on a short pass into the end zone on first down and couldn’t haul in the ball for the touchdown, then received the ball on the two yard line on second down and couldn’t run it in. Alvin Kamara proceeded to score the first touchdown.

This weekend I want to try again, because the match up and likely game script also looks right.

To recap on the Saints rushing attack firstly:

• The offense has morphed into a more balanced unit this season as the emphasis has moved away from solely relying on Brees and the passing game
• Adrian Peterson was traded away mid season creating the opportunity for the other backs to increase their snap counts
• Investments in the offensive line in the draft have been successful, creating a reliable running game.

The result of all of this is that the running attack has been a major contributor in a side that is in pole position to win a tough division and the results for both Ingram and the likely offensive rookie of the year have been impressive:

Ingram 1089 rushing yards, 12 touchdowns* 397 receiving yards

Kamara 684 rushing yards, 7 touchdowns, 742 receiving yards 5 touchdowns

(* All 12 touchdowns from week 7 onwards, after the Peterson trade)

The running back combination has accounted for 48% of the New Orleans yardage and 55% of their offensive touchdowns this year. They can become the 1st running back teammates in NFL history to each have 1,500+ scrimmage yards in the same season.

Last week, in what turned out to be a mostly attritional defensive game against the Falcons, Ingram and Kamara received 35 touches combined on 61 offensive snaps, so their workload has showed no sign of reducing.

If the Saints win here, they win the division. No resting of the starters, at least not early in the game, as if they lose and the Panthers beat the Falcons, the Saints are into the wild card positions and won’t host the first play off game. The Saints and Panthers/Falcons now play at the same time.

The Buccaneers are a 4-11 team, and like Neil I am not a huge proponent of the argument that “teams have nothing to play for” (or this is a “must win” game on the other side) but they have injuries on defense and ranked 24^th on rushing defense through 16 weeks. That said they are ranking last of the 32 teams in passing defense so for the Saints it a case of “take your pick”.

The two teams met in Florida in week 9, the Saints won 30-10 and it was Kamara who featured with two touchdowns, one rushing one receiving and 152 total yards. In that game Ingram rushed for 77 yards.

This season Ingram and Kamara combined have elevated the Saints to the 5^th best rushing attack in the league through 16 games. The Saints are 7 point favourites at home in a game in which the total points market shows +/- 50.5 points and the game match up looks excellent for their offense. I could make the case for backing both by dutching Ingram and Kamara but Ingram is the workhorse here, and as in the game a few weeks ago should get the early down opportunities near the goal-line

8 points Mark Ingram First Touchdown Scorer 11/2 (Betfair Sportsbook/Paddypower so far, prices are late going up this final weekend!)

Survival of the fittest.

So far in the European Champions Cup Rugby Pool stages the Irish teams are riding high. In Round 4, for the second time this season, the Irish teams swept the English teams from the Aviva Premiership. Over the course of four rounds, the Irish teams have one defeat in 16 matches in both European tournaments, the Champions and Challenge Cup. In the Champions Cup Leinster and Munster lead their pools and are on course for home times in the Quarter finals

The Irish union has a significant input into the contractual arrangements of the players in each of the four provinces. There is a degree of autonomy for each team but the overriding direction comes from the union. They provide the funding and they exert influence to when the Test players, in particular, are available for Pro14 duty. As a result, their leading players (15 on contracts) have far more built-in rest and recuperation periods than their counterparts in England.

The English Premiership clubs have far more funding at their disposal but are beginning to be hamstrung by a static salary cap and competition for their players notably from France. As this has pushed overall wage levels up their squads lack the depth of previous years as teams cannot hoard talent outside their first team under the cap

England and France are the two countries in the world game holding out against centrally contacting players. It is a power play between old money that resides in the union and the new independent financial clout of private investors who increasingly have come town the clubs.

Yet the international game is seeing a shift back towards central control. Even Wales, have managed to reach a position where they arein a position to try to entice their best players back home, such as George North.

For England’s national team Eddie Jones would like the same control over his players as Steve Hansen (New Zealand) or Joe Schmidt (Ireland) does. These coaches have complete jurisdiction over when, where and how often their players play. Jones has long stressed the need for better levels of fitness. That is an on-going process but it is nigh-on-impossible for Jones to have any direct input to conditioning levels once the season is under way.

The rigours of the domestic programme are such that the prime aim of England’s Test players is survival. For example Saracens (in the middle of a bad run) played at Clermont two Sundays ago in a brutal game and six days later were in Leicester on Christmas Eve, the key players required to play both and this a onth before the Six Nations, a competition in which attrition from injuries (Elliot Daly, Nathan Hughes) is already occurring. Many of the top players have played through a Lions summer, straight into a domestic and International autumn and on into the Six Nations, being pulled by both club and country to front up for both. The underperformance of the English clubs in the ERCC is directly related to their workload, and it is the Irish provinces that have been a beneficiary so far.

The hybrid English system, with built-in blocks of release, may not be ideal for national coaches, but it provides a counter-point to the Test rugby arena. The international game may well generate the bulk of the funding for the sport through the Rugby World Cup and various broadcasting rights deals, providing profile round the globe, but for many fans the fortunes of the clubs is important too. As yet though English rugby hasn’t found the balance. Such is the depth of talent that the English national team has so far been able to withstand the injury absences, but the acid test will be in February onwards in the Six Nations

Brodders Football Analysis

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If you bet £10 per point on every recommended bet since launch you would be winning + £40,648 All bets have an ROI +4.01%

A £4000 bank (see FAQ re bank-roll requirements) betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth £44,648 a 1016% increase

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The Road to Riches: Weekend of 23rd-24th December

Coming Up this weekend

- Football, the Premier League fixtures include Arsenal v Liverpool on Friday night and then a full schedule on Boxing Day.

- Cricket, the Fourth Ashes Test in Melbourne begins on Boxing Day.

- Racing, Over the jumps at Ascot, Haydock and Newcastle. All weather racing at Lingfield.

MustardBet are back!

Tight margins, no account closures and re-bet as often as you like. If you bet the maximum available which is clearly shown on the screen you can bet again afterwards again and again

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PDC Darts World Championship:

Last year Nigel Seeley showed a Darts ROI of 10.83%.and if you have followed all of Nigel’s darts bets on Betting Emporium betting £10 a point (average bet 10-12 points) you would be winning £2028

Free tip

The King George VI Chase at Kempton, Boxing Day by Neil Channing

The highlight of the Christmas racing looks a real cracker this year, (see what I did there?). I'm writing this on Friday afternoon and at the moment it's a nine-runner race but three are 50/1 and bigger on the machine and me old mucker Tea For Two surely won't win this on soft ground and with rain expected tomorrow and on Monday that is what I'm expecting they'll be facing.

We are left with just five horses and although it's possible that the freak but nutty Might Bite just hacks up, on a course that plays to his strengths, I think the race begs us to play each-way.

 I'm having 12 Points each-way Whisper at 9/1 1/5th 123 with Bet365 and SkyBet

Fooled by Randomness?

As I write Burnley are sixth in the Premier League table and, beyond the continued excellence of Manchester City, one of the stories of the Premier League season as we approach Christmas. In the past week Burnley have continued to progress with seven points out of 9 and three clean sheets at home to Watford and Stoke and then at Brighton.

So far this is a remarkable achievement as their average weekly wage (£18,000 per week), is less than the day’s pay of a number of the top players in the league. They have produced five England debutants in the last couple of years.

Beyond the bare facts of the league table there are some remarkable statistical occurrences this season. Firstly Burnley have turned 16 goals in 18 games into 32 points. Of course related to this Burnley have conceded only 12 goals all season.

Expected wins and goals data shows us something unusual. Compared to their actual outcome of 9 wins, 5 draws and 4 losses their Expected Wins (Xwins) are under 5, XDraws 5 and XLosses 8. xG is a paltry 10, xGA (given the number and quality of chances created against Burnley this season) 20 and expected points….16!

Of course under half of a premier league season is a short sample of games and we’ve seen before how teams can both out and underperform their expected results for quite a while and it is not to say that some regression to the mean is imminent and such bucking of conventional wisdom suggests that writing it off as an outlier or a freak of randomness is unsatisfactory. What might the statistical models be missing?

This season according to Opta, no Premier League team has blocked more shots or made more clearances. Ben Mee and James Tarkowski rank second and third in the league in each category. No goalkeeper has made more saves per game than the injured Tom Heaton’s understudy Nick Pope. All of these are required as Burnley has allowed more shots than any other team.

This ight suggest that Burnley are plucky underdogs throwing their bodies in the way of more sophisticated opponents. However the work Burnley put in to achieve the sort of stats highlighted by Opta belies this.

When Sean Dyche arrived in 2012 he began to coach the team specifically on defensive patterns off the ball and players reportedly and repeatedly watched videos of teams from La Liga and Argentina designed to illustrate how he wanted his team to defend as a group. Five years later the methods are still in place all designed to limit the number of “golden” opportunities the opponents might have which involves working intensively on the team’s shape in certain situations, for example a central defender dropping into the line of a shot from a specific position, or the defense squeezing opponents into less dangerous areas.

Dyche explained recently “The way it is designed is to put a player in a position that it is statistically, visually and from experience, harder to score from,” he said. “Or to allow the team to defend more bravely, to step out of their positions to move towards the ball because they know they have cover. It is to make a chance less of a chance.”

Burnley may concede the most shots, but the success of the approach is that it also gives up the “lowest quality of opportunities” to its opponents of all Premier League teams. Last season, Burnley blocked 32% of the shots it faced. This season that figure is 35%. The league average is 27%.

Data from Stratagem shows how Burnley defends. On average, a Premier League team will have five defenders between its goal and an opponent taking a shot on around 9% of the chances it concedes. Burnley does so almost twice as often. Stratagem’s figures show that fewer than 2% of the chances Dyche’s team concede come came when it has less than two defenders between the attacker and goal. The average for the league is 14%.

That the method’s success is not reflected in the analytics described earlier is clear and the models used do not take into account the positions or the numbers of defenders on any given chance. It is also hard to put a figure on team cohesiveness and that element of the team being more than the sum of its parts. Watching Burnley’s back five in person recently, it was the footballing equivalent of a strictly come dancing group dance, all co-ordination and precision of positioning. It is a team, and that cannot always be measured and not to be dismissed as being a product of fluke with a tumble down the table certain to follow

Brodders Football Analysis

Sign up to Brodders match analysis and recommended bets here for £50 a month. You are free to cancel at any time.

This week Brodders published an in depth ante post Champions League write up covering outrights/ groups/ goal-scorer bets

Long term profit over more than three years. Following all bets subscribers are winning £21,758 (£10 a point, average bet £150) +ROI 3.78% (correct at 30/10/17)

Bookmaker reviews and advice

Getting the best price available is very important for all those who take their betting seriously.

Please open an account with all those bookmakers on the page on this link that you do not already have an account with using the links provided.

There are literally hundreds of pounds on offer from bookmakers just for signing up through Bettingemporium.com

Betting Emporium results

The detailed results page has been updated as have the spreadsheets with the detailed bets. They can be found by clicking RESULTS

If you bet £10 per point on every recommended bet since launch you would be winning + £40,648 All bets have an ROI +4.01%

A £4000 bank (see FAQ re bank-roll requirements) betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth £44,648 a 1016% increase

(correct at 30/10/17)