The Road to Riches Weekend of 25th-26th November

Coming Up this weekend

- Football, the Premier League fixtures include Liverpool v Chelsea

- Cricket, the first Ashes Test in Brisbane

- Racing,. Over the jumps at Ascot, Haydock and Huntingdon. All weather racing at.Lingfield and Wolverhampton

- Tennis, the Davis Cup final, France v Belgium in Lille

- Golf, On the European Tour the UBS Hong Kong Open

- Formula One, the final Grand Prix of the season in Abu Dhabi

- Rugby Union The Autumn Internationals continue including Walesv New Zealand and Scotland v Australia

- Rugby League, the World Cup Semi finals in Australia: Australia v Fiji and x v y

NFL Week Twelve

So far this season Neil is showing a profit of £1250 at £10 a point with a ROI of 11.75%

The cost for sign up for the regular season is now £50

Coming Soon

Free tip by Neil Channing

Betfair Chase, Haydock 3pm Saturday

 I'm having 10 Points WIN Outlander at 5/1 generally

Worst to First

The Houston Astros baseball World Series Victory last month completed a remarkable turn-around. The Astros possessed the MLB's worst record in 2011, 2012 and 2013.  In 2012 they were 40 games under .500 and at one stage lost 25 times in 28 games.

In 2012 Jeff Luhnow was hired from the St Louis Cardinals to be the new general manager and over the next three years he completely transformed the club. Historically it has been difficult to transform losing baseball teams into contenders for structural reasons. Unlike the NFL where a salary cap levels the playing field MLB franchise revenue is derived from locally negotiated TV deals. The bigger the City and the bigger the TV market, the larger the deal. So teams like the New York Yankees, Boston Red Sox and LA Dodgers receive the most, spend the most and are found contending most years. A luxury tax capped over-spending somewhat but the league was still inequitablel.

In 2012 though, baseball enacted a new collective bargaining agreement that greatly incentivised losing teams giving them most money to spend on amateur talent. This began to level the playing field and make it possible for non-contending teams to compete for the best young talent. Houston became one of the prime beneficiaries of this, amassing a deep "farm" system that not only produced on-field talent but also the player capital to trade to acquire pieces from other teams when they were later to move into contention themselves.

In that 2012 season, the five worst teams were the Astros, the Chicago Cubs, the Colorado Rockies, the Minnesota Twins and the Cleveland Indians. All made the playoffs this year and the Cubs and the Astros are the last two world series winners. In the 2012 World Series, the San Francisco Giants played the Detroit Tigers. This season, they were the worst teams in the majors.

The Astros had the first pick in the draft in each of 2012, 2013 and 2014. In 2012 they used the first pick on their now superstar shortstop Carlos Correa. However 2013 and 2014 were less successful. In 2013, they chose pitcher Mark Appel who has not appeared in the majors. In 2014, they took a high school pitcher, Brady Aiken who turned out to be injured.

In subsequent unusual moves, as teams are often financially wedded to their highest profile draft picks,  the Astros bailed out on their two disappointments, not signing Aiken and using the compensatory draft pick they gained as a result on Alex Bregman, now their starting third baseman.. Then after bullpen collapsed in a 2015 division-series loss to Kansas City, the Astros traded with Philadelphia for closer Ken Giles, putting Appel in a five-player package.

Correa reached the majors within three years and won the American League Rookie of the Year Award in 2015. He hit .315 with 24 home runs this season.Giles, meanwhile, converted 34 of 38 save chances this year and has averaged 13 strikeouts per nine innings over two seasons with Houston.Bregman hit .284 with 19 home runs and 17 steals in his first full major league season.

In 2013 Houston began the season with the lowest payroll in the league, $22m. By 2017 Houston’s payroll was $124m,18^th in the MLB and about half the LA Dodgers, who they beat in the World Series, at $242m but their moves had turned them into contenders.

As they became contenders there was another switch in strategy, making a blockbuster trade to acquire all-pro pitcher Justin Verlander from the Detroit Tigers who were now starting their own rebuilding phase. This was the move that helped push the Astros over the top. They won 101 games in the regular season this year and then they won 11 games in the post series and won for the title for the first time in 56 year history.

I am sucker for a good sporting story and big turn-arounds through innovative management. Next? Possibly the Cleveland Browns in the NFL with the NFL's worst record in 2015, 2016 and still winless in 2017. All eyes on the Super Bowl in 2021?

Brodders Football Analysis

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If you bet £10 per point on every recommended bet since launch you would be winning + £40,648 All bets have an ROI +4.01%

A £4000 bank (see FAQ re bank-roll requirements) betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth £44,648 a 1016% increase

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The Road to Riches Weekend of 17th-18th November

Coming Up this weekend

- Football, the Premier League returns after the International break, fixtures including Arsenal v Tottenham.

- Racing,. Over the jumps at Cheltenham, Uttoxeter and Wetherby. All weather racing at Lingfield and Wolverhampton.

- Tennis, the ATP finals in London.

- Golf, On the USPGA the RSM Classic at Sea Island, Georgia and on the European Tour the DP World Tour Championship in Dubai

- Rugby Union The Autumn Internationals continue including England v Australia,  Scotland v New Zealand and France v South Africa.

NFL Week Eleven

So far this season Neil is showing a profit of £1250 at £10 a point with a ROI of 11.75%

The cost for sign up for the regular season is now £50

Coming Soon

Free Ashes series tips

The series begins on the 23^rd November in Brisbane. Last time down under of course England lost 5-0 and expectations are low this time round, especially because of the absence of Ben Stokes, an “X Factor” match winner.

There is especially pessimism about England’s batting described by one cricket correspondent as the “worst to ever leave these shores!” Betting markets reflect this as it is 13/2 bar Cook and Root in the Top England batsman market

However even though they are strong favourites, it feels strange to suddenly vault Australia into an unbeatable force considering the team's batting instability and a mish-mash of results in recent years. Consider the Top Australia batsman market where there are question marks beyond the front two, Warner and Smith

It is a similar story in the fast bowling ranks where clearly Australia have a formidable trio in Starc, Hazlewood and Cummins but England have Anderson and Broad. Beyond the front line stars though, depth is an issue for both sides.

Odds for the first Test are Australia 4/5, England 9/4, the Draw 9/2 and for the series Australia 2/5 and England 7/2, with the draw (and England retaining the Ashes) up to 8/1

The head of the correct score market sees Australia 3-1 and 4-1 as 5/1 and 13/2 favorites respectively.

I think it will be far closer than that, the inevitable incidence of injuries to key players is going to be crucial and Australia just aren’t that superior a side to England and both have similar weaknesses and rely on three or four key players each. The result of the series may depend on good or bad fortune with injuries for those seven or eight key players across both sides. For example if Anderson or Broad go down,you would have to be worried about England’s bowling plan B, but the same applies for Starc and Hazlewood too

Onto some of the value in sub-markets

England Batsman

England obviously have two top class performers in Root and Cook.

There has to be an opportunity to take on the front two for value here given the short prices around them and the issue here surrounds England’s weaknesses in the top order. England have been 50/3 or worse 11 times in last 12months in 14 tests, twice each against South Africa and the West Indies at home last sumer and no less than seven times last winter in Bangladesh and India.

Partnering Cook England have cycled through Hameed, Jennings and now onto Stoneman over that period and have now used at 12 openers since Andrew Strauss retired in 2012.

Beyond that the number three position has been a continual problem and frequently numbers 6-8 have rescued totals, and a batting order with Bairstow at 7 and Moeen Ali at 8 has been an enviable strength, and both will have to move up one in the order with Stokes missing

Clearly Stoneman, Vince and/or Ballance and Malan in top five have a lot to prove and Cook and Root have to be favourites in this market.

Root averages 53.76 in 60 Tests, and has 13-hundreds and 32 fifties in 110 innings. His quality is unquestionable yet what we know the market knows and he’s 6/4.

At 5/2 Cook might be slightly past his best against the best fast bowling. Since 2013 he has “only” scored a test century every 6.3 matches compared to every 3.7 before 2014.

However for value I do think that Bairstow at 13/2 (batting six, avoiding the new ball barrage and able to counter-attack) is interesting value.

England bowler

Who said this about who recently?

"At 35, with almost five back-to-back Test matches, is he going to be as influential? We'd like to say hopefully but realistically? Unlikely. Hopefully he might get a couple of wickets where he is going to be influential."

That was Graham Gooch's assessment of James Anderson and his chances of success this winter. It seems a fair question whether England's record Test wicket-taker can replicate his home form in Australia but Anderson took 24 wickets at 26 in 2010/11 in Australia and his struggles away from home have also been exaggerated as an average of 29.2 since 2010 outside of England shows. After a couple of injury-disrupted years, Anderson also got through all seven summer Tests unscathed.

Of course, if he can stay fit, it remains to be seen whether he can repeat his heroics of seven years ago and again make the necessary adjustments to succeed with the Kookaburra ball on bouncier pitches with less movement through the air and off the seam.

Stuart Broad was involved in just two Tests last time, an injury in the second ruling him out of the remainder of the series. Even if the new ball pair do find their best form this winter, they will be reliant on Chris Woakes and whoever is selected ( I would expect Overton, Curran and Ball to platoon here across a series) as the fourth seamer to provide dependable back-up.

With Anderson and Broad at skinny prices (both 9/4 or shorter) in this market I think Woakes is an interesting price at 7/2. Already described this tour as “back to his absolute best” he is established as third seamer and should particularly suit the well thatched drop in pitch for the day/night pink ball Adelaide test. I had a passing look at Moeen Ali at 6-1, he will play all five matches ( if fit, the recent side strain is a concern) and be the stock bowler even if conditions don’t immediately set up to suit

Australia batting

All eyes here on Smith and Warner who are 7/4 joint favourites in this market with Usman Khawaja 5/1, 7/1 bar.

Smith has scored at a world class of 59.6 after 56 Tests including 20-hundreds and 21 fifties in 104 innings and looks a very solid favourite here,a much more effective batsman on firm true pitches in Australia than over here against the moving ball for example.

Beyond the front three in the market Australia have issues of their own. I think England will be pleased Renshaw (184 in last Test in Australia) and Maxwell (obvious all-round danger) have been overlooked and Bancroft/Shaun Marsh selected.Tim Paine is a real left field selection as wicketkeeper-batsman too. You’d be hard pressed to make the case than any of these five players mentioned are a lock for all five tests

What I do know is that Peter Handscomb will bat 5 all series and has 740 runs in his first ten tests. He appeals most of the relative outsiders at 8-1+.

Australia bowler

Incredibly the much vaunted first choice trio have never played a Test together due to continual injury problems. Mitchell Starc is brilliant, of course and bang in form. He will be looking at England’s top five and trying to contain his excitement. He’s taken four wickets or more 16 times in 36 tests. At 5/4 though prices already assume he’ll have his great series.

Alongside him Josh Hazlewood has featured in 31 Tests so far with 118 wickets. A probing swing bowler, he is the metronome alongside two attacking enforcers and will benefit from the dramas created by Starc at the other end and given his accuracy at 9/4 is better value given there will be technical deficiencies to go at in the England batting.

Backing them up Pat Cummins (9/2) is an outright quick and likely to be a real handful at Adelaide and Perth in particular. First choice spinner Nathan Lyon (11/2) remains in the side.

The three first choice quickshave to be short odds not to get through five tests in a short time span unscathed though. After them Australia's pace stocks have taken a battering with James Pattinson ruled out of the series and Nathan Coulter-Nile suffering a new back injury. Jackson Bird is likely to back the front three up.

Recommendations

7 points Top England batsman Jonny Bairstow 13/2 William Hill 6/1 generally

10 points Top England bowler Chris Woakes 7/2 William Hill 3/1 generally

10 points Top Australia Batsman Steve Smith 15/8 Skybet 7/4 generally

4 points Top Australia Batsman Peter Handscomb 9/1 Ladbrokes/Coral

10 points Top Australia Bowler Josh Hazlewood 9/4 Skybet, Ladbrokes/Coral

4 points Series Correct Score 2-2 at 8-1 William Hill, 7-1 generally

Brodders Football Analysis

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This week Brodders published an in depth ante post Champions League write up covering outrights/ groups/ goal-scorer bets

Long term profit over more than three years. Following all bets subscribers are winning £21,758 (£10 a point, average bet £150) +ROI 3.78% (correct at 30/10/17)

Bookmaker reviews and advice

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Betting Emporium results

The detailed results page has been updated as have the spreadsheets with the detailed bets. They can be found by clicking RESULTS

If you bet £10 per point on every recommended bet since launch you would be winning + £40,648 All bets have an ROI +4.01%

A £4000 bank (see FAQ re bank-roll requirements) betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth £44,648 a 1016% increase

(correct at 30/10/17)

The Road to Riches Weekend of 11th-12th November

Coming Up this weekend

- Football, An International Break for the Premier League with England friendlies against Germany and Brazil and the World Cup Play Offs.

- Racing, Flat meetings at Doncaster and Wolverhampton. Over the jumps at Aintree, Kelso and Wincanton.

- Tennis, the Fed Cup Finals in Belarus, Belarus v the USA.

- Golf, On the USPGA The OHL Classic in Mexico and on the European Tour the Nedbank Golf Challenge in South Africa.

- Formula One, the Brazilian Grand Prix.

- Rugby Union The Autumn Internationals begin including England v Argentina, Wales v Australia, France v New Zealand and Ireland v South Africa.

NFL Week Ten

The cost for sign up for the regular season is now £60

Coming Soon

Free tip

Rugby Union Wales v Australia Saturday 5.15pm BBC2

The month of Autumn Internationals beginning this weekend represent the start of the International season for the Northern Hemisphere sides and the end of a long season for the Southern Hemisphere teams and a chance for all teams to measure progress half way towards the 2019 World Cup in Japan.

Australia have won their past 12 internationals against Wales (including last year 32-8) last losing in 2008 but they arrived in Wales on Monday battle-hardened and buoyed by a Bledisloe Cup victory in Brisbane over New Zealand last month.

The two meet in the 2019 World Cup in Japan. It will be the fourth time they have been pooled together with Wales yet to win. Victory for Australia on Saturday would not only extend the Wallabies’ winning run in the fixture to 13 but give them a psychological advantage before the September 2019 meeting in Tokyo.

Unfortunately for this match Wales are injury hit and do not yet have the depth in their pool of players to withstand such losses.

Wales field an unfamiliar back row with Justin Tipuric yet to train since suffering a thigh injury last month. With the Lions’ captain, Sam Warburton, out until the new year and the player who stood in at openside against Samoa in the summer, Ellis Jenkins, also injured, Wales’s have picked Josh Navidi and Aaron Shingler who have 13 caps between them. In this era where fast ball and winning the breakdown is crucial as the first step to unpicking well-marshalled rugby league style defences the inexperienced Wales flankers have to compete against the excellent Australia captain Michael Hooper, one of the world class players the visitors can field

The scrum-half Rhys Webb, a summer Lion along with Tipuric, is also missing sat out training since suffering a knee injury playing for Ospreys against Clermont Auvergne last month. The selection of Owen Williams at 12 suggests a somewhat conservative “two fly halfs” approach.

Still coached by Warren Gatland, Wales will be spiky and competitive but have yet,over many years under this coaching team, to consistently open up the best defences in their attack with a somewhat prosaic and direct style of play coined “Warrenball”, this despite the talents of Jonathan Davies, Liam Wlliams and the currently injured George North in their back-line.

Australia were at a low ebb after the last World Cup, for example losing 3-0 to England at home two summers ago but have been recovering since with a core of top class players (Folau,Hooper,Genia, Kuridrani to name a few) supplemented by a crop of emerging young players and thus greater strength in depth. Folau misses the tour on a sabbatical but the player who could generate some buzz is NRL convert Marika Koroibete. The former Melbourne Storm winger has four tries in four Tests and looks to have picked up the nuances of rugby defence, and breakdown work, better than any previous Australian rugby league convert.

“We’ll be looking to pick our best side for every Test of the tour,” stressed Michael Cheika this week “These are important matches and we want to be build a consistent, winning mindset and that’s something we want to pass on to next year’s team.”

Their last two games against the All Blacks were significant steps. Firstly they led in the rugby Championship game in Dunedin deep in the second half before losing to a last gasp try, then beating them 23-18 in Brisbane. Anything close to that form here and Wales won’t be living with them for 80-minutes

Yet prices assume a closer game than I do. Wales are were 6/5 a few days ago and have drifted out on the team news, underdogs to Australia at now 4/7 from 8/11. Australia can justifiably be backed at -5 (from -3) on the point handicap at 10/11.

For this column, I think a winning margin of two scores plus is feasible.

6 points Australia to win by 13+ points 8/5 Ladbrokes/Coral, 5/2 Betfred or 12/5 Sportingbet, Betfair Sportsbook

Sitting Up and Taking Notice

The Champions League group stage is now two thirds complete, four games per team played and two each to come and for English clubs the picture is very encouraging indeed. Even before we consider results so far, the Premier League has five entrants this season thanks to Manchester United’s victory in last season’s Europa League but four of the five English clubs top their groups.

Of the 20 matches involving English clubs in the Champions League so far, 15 have been won, four drawn and only one loss, Chelsea in Rome last week.Looking at teams from the other major leagues Spanish teams have played 16, won seven, drawn six times and been beaten three times. The three German teams have so far recorded more defeats than victories – P12 W4 D3 L5.

If our teams were struggling to qualify, it would be discussed non-stop. The reverse is being discussed a bit less even after the stand out result of those twenty games with Tottenham following their point in the Bernabeu with their win over Real Madrid at Wembley. The last time Real lost a group game in the Champions League was October 2012 and only Ronaldo’s late consolation protected their record of only failing to score in only one of 53 group games since that defeat.

Of course it is early days, the likes of PSG and Barcelona lie in wait for later on and the English malaise normally starts in earnest in the knockout rounds, once the gruelling festive fixture programme and lack of a winter break have both taken their toll.

When English clubs made early exits last season Steve McManaman said it was because few Premier League sides were stable enough to permit a sustained challenge in Europe. “Look at last-stage regulars like Real Madrid, Barcelona and Bayern Munich and they don’t change much from year to year,” he suggested. “You just see small nuances here and there, whereas in England the response to an unsuccessful season is often to rip everything up and start again.”

A year ago managers such as Guardiola, Mourinho and  Klopp were rebuilding clubs and squads and Tottenham were still coming to terms with the Champions League. This season every manager in charge of an English Champions League club is now in at least his second season. Guardiola has invested another £200m+ and solidified his defence too, Mourinho has also spent substantially while Pochettino is managing a strong side that is growing in terms of confidence and experience. Of course we can all have doubts about Liverpool’s defence and Chelsea’s squad depth but so far so good

At the same time Bayern have already changed coaches this season, Barcelona lost Neymar and there are rumblings about Zidane at Real. Perhaps not quite a changing of the guard yet, but possibly signs that English representation at the business end of this season’s competition is not a forlorn hope.

Brodders Football Analysis

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This week Brodders published an in depth ante post Champions League write up covering outrights/ groups/ goal-scorer bets

Long term profit over more than three years. Following all bets subscribers are winning £21,758 (£10 a point, average bet £150) +ROI 3.78% (correct at 30/10/17)

Bookmaker reviews and advice

Getting the best price available is very important for all those who take their betting seriously.

Please open an account with all those bookmakers on the page on this link that you do not already have an account with using the links provided.

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Betting Emporium results

The detailed results page has been updated as have the spreadsheets with the detailed bets. They can be found by clicking RESULTS

If you bet £10 per point on every recommended bet since launch you would be winning + £40,648 All bets have an ROI +4.01%

A £4000 bank (see FAQ re bank-roll requirements) betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth £44,648 a 1016% increase

(correct at 30/10/17)

The Road to Riches Weekend of 4th-5th November

Coming Up this weekend

- Football, Premier League matches include Manchester City v Arsenal and Chelsea v Manchester United

- Racing, The 2017 Breeders' Cup at Del Mar in California. Flat meetings at Newmarket and Newcastle. Over the jumps at Ascot, Ayr and Wetherby.

- Tennis, ATP BNP Paribas Masters in Paris and the WTA Elite Trophy in Zhuhai,China.

- Golf, On the USPGA The Shriners Hospitals for Children Open at TPC Summerlin and on the European Tour the Turkish Open.

- Rugby Union As a precursor to the Autumn Internationals which start next week the Barbarians v New Zealand play at Twickenham

- Cricket The Ashes tour begins against a WACA XI in Perth.

NFL Week Nine

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Coming Soon

Free tip by Neil Channing

Sodexo Cup Saturday 3.35pm Ascot

From the Ashes?

The ICC intends to create a nine-team Test championship to run from 2019 and feature a final every two years. A competition that goes beyond the rankings system has been a subject of debate at ICC level for some time. The top nine Test nations would play four series at home and four away over a two-year period, with the league table leading into a final that would decide the outright Test champions. Countries would only meet once in each two year league either home or away. The fixtures would then be reversed next time around.

Test match cricket has been in decline and a championship could add relevance to every game and series and casual fans will be able to associate with a league table more than the current complicated rankings which no one reading this could explain how they are calculated!.

The main challenge for many teams in the new Championship will be to win away from home, a rarity in modern test cricket and there will be quite a lot of league table variance based around the fixture patterns. England would currently expect to be high in the table but if the fixtures fall away in India, Pakistan and Australia say, it will be tough to get to the final.

Fundamentally there are a lot of people against change in cricket and instinctively I am one of them, being a fan of five day test cricket but as ever the broadcasters are key here because with the exception of the Ashes it isn’t easy to create narratives that hit home for many series. Traditionalists will say Test cricket should not be about money however growing the game in new areas such as women’s cricket, grassroots and schools takes a lot of funding and that only comes through broadcast deals.

The average Test match currently lasts for 331 overs and sometimes a Test involves a close finish but the majority of matches finish in four days or less which is where the notion that five day test cricket could be removed and replaced with four day tests being discussed currently comes from. Again the idea (as in county cricket) that teams might have to set up results isn’t something the purists like but the bigger picture is scheduling and the amount of money lost on the fifth day when grounds are empty.

Four-day Tests will also be easier to schedule alongside T20 leagues. Currently in England, in part because of the crowded season, the Test is all over the place with games starting on any day from Wednesday to Saturday.

Fnally the move towards a Test Championship is part of an accelerating rollback of the “Big Three” model that was introduced in 2014 and saw India, Australia and England allocate themselves an increased proportion of revenues from global events. A result of this has been lowered standards and slower development from sides like Sri Lanka and the West Indies and a more equitable revenue model may see a broader more competitive Test game develop over the next decade and hopefully played to a larger audience too.

Brodders Football Analysis

Sign up to Brodders match analysis and recommended bets here for £50 a month. You are free to cancel at any time.

This week Brodders published an in depth ante post Champions League write up covering outrights/ groups/ goal-scorer bets

Long term profit over more than three years. Following all bets subscribers are winning £21,758 (£10 a point, average bet £150) +ROI 3.78% (correct at 30/10/17)

Bookmaker reviews and advice

Getting the best price available is very important for all those who take their betting seriously.

Please open an account with all those bookmakers on the page on this link that you do not already have an account with using the links provided.

There are literally hundreds of pounds on offer from bookmakers just for signing up through Bettingemporium.com

Betting Emporium results

The detailed results page has been updated as have the spreadsheets with the detailed bets. They can be found by clicking RESULTS

If you bet £10 per point on every recommended bet since launch you would be winning + £40,648 All bets have an ROI +4.01%

A £4000 bank (see FAQ re bank-roll requirements) betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth £44,648 a 1016% increase

(correct at 30/10/17)

The Road To Riches Weekend of October 28th-29th

Coming Up this weekend

- Football, Premier League matches include Manchester United v Tottenham Hotspur

- Racing, Flat meetings at Doncaster, Newbury and Wolverhampton. Over the jumps at Cheltenham and Kelso.

- Tennis, ATP Vienna and Swiss Indoor Opens and the WTA Finals in Singapore.

- Golf, the WGC-HSBC Champions in China and on the USPGA The Sanderson Farms Championship in Mississippi.

- Formula One, the Mexico Grand Prix.

NFL Week Eight

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Free tip

Pittsburgh Steelers @ Detroit Lions, NFL Week 8 (Sunday Night Football, 12.30am Monday GMT)

Le’Veon Bell is one of the best running backs in the NFL and importantly in a great situation given the offensive strategy of the Steelers. He’s an unusual runner with a lot of patience. He waits and waits on for a running lane to develop on rushing plays, which is a unique style in today’s game.

Bell held out all summer and reported to the team the week before the season started and understandably perhaps stated the season slowly. However he has since come on strong ande now ranks second in the NFL in total rushing yards with 684 on 169 carries. He has scored four TDs and is averaging 97 rushing yards per game. Bell is also a threat in the passing game, as he's totaled 33 receptions for 214 yards.

Bell has 56% of the Pittsburgh offensive touches, the only running back with over half of his team touches on the season and leads the league with 18 touches inside of the 10-yard line. He had 16 all of 2016. Finally he has 137 touches over the past four weeks, 40 more than the next closest player. Alongside his talent the offensive game plans he works in give him high volume opportunities on a weekly basis.

In this match up the Lions are without their top Defensive Tackle, Haloti Ngata, newly on injured reserve. Before their bye week they conceded over 50 points at New Orleans and this looks a prime opportunity for Bell to run successfully. Detroit is allowing 6.7 receptions per game to opposing backfields, 31st in the league

Typically Steelers quarterback Ben Roethlisberger’s performances away from home are less dependable than at Heinz field. Roethlisberger ranks fifth in the NFL in passing yards this season, going 151-for-244 for 1,745 yards and nine touchdowns. He has thrown eight interceptions, however, so a game plan that gets Bell 25+ touches looks assured.

In three of the last four games, close games with the Steelers ahead, Bell has had 35, 32 and 35 rushing attempts. The exception was the Jacksonville game where he had 15 carries in a game where the Steelers fell well behind and the game situation dictated throwing the ball, and I don’t expect that to be the case here. Overall Bell has 169 rushes in 7 games. His career season high over 16 games is 290 so he is on course to beat that comfortably.

When looking at the touchdown markets here, on the other side of the ball there are factors at play to restrict the scoring potential of the Lions offense. The Lions are likely to be without their number one receiver Golden Tate through injury and in any case Pittsburgh ranks second in the NFL in total defense, allowing 258.7 yards per game. The Steelers' pass defense has been especially strong, allowing an NFL-low 147 yards per game through the air and no more than 65 yards to any one receiver. Their secondary, bolstered by the arrival of Joe Haden (released by the Browns) is talented and deep.

The Lions running game is not that reliable either, certainly for punching in touchdowns in the rushing game in the red zone as it lacks a power back.

As usual I leave discussion of game lines and totals to Neil and instead look at the first touchdown market. A combination of the likely game script for the Steelers away from home and the match up here makes Bell look very attractive.

10 Points Le-Veon Bell first touchdown scorer Steelers at Lions 5/1 Bet365 and Skybet

It’s not All Black

The All Blacks won their fifth Rugby Championship victory in six years this Autumn and of the 20 Bledisloe Cup titles played for so far, New Zealand have won 15 of them.

Clearly the number one side in the world and on course to defend their rugby world cup title in Japan in 2019 their dominance has led to concerns about the competitiveness of International rugby at the very top and whether that might damage the global game.

Sport is a business where a monopoly is not a good thing and at times the All Blacks have looked like the Harlem Globetrotters travelling around looking for someone to play.

Obviously that is not what the IRB, television companies or All Black fans want. They want to be on the edge of their seats every time they go and watch them and not knowing what the result will be.

This isn’t even a vintage All Blacks side yet. Top level rugby now runs in four year cycles with coaching teams attempting to get their sides to peak at the World Cups. In the aftermath of the 2015 world cup the All Blacks entered a rebuilding phase with key retirements such as Richie McCaw and the loss of a number of players to Northern Hemisphere club rugby.

With the introduction of young players there have been some teething problems. The failure to beat the British Lions in the summer over a three test series was a big surprise and then Australia came within two minutes of beating them in Dunedin in September. Then last weekend Australia did the almost unthinkable and beat the All Blacks for the first time in eight games and only the second time in nineteen games.

Even with the Bledisloe Cup decided meaning the game was a “dead rubber” and facing an All Blacks side with six of their first choice XV unavailable, it had the feeling of a important match and certainly an important result for global rugby. Australia, an improving side from the depths of 2016 when beaten 3-0 at home by England, can look to facing the All Blacks as rivals rather than whipping boys

In the short term the result is probably bad news for the Northern Hemisphere sides New Zealand now travel to face on their Autumn tour. “We’ll use the hurt to grow,” coach Steve Hansen said. “A lot of these guys it’s probably their first loss in an All Black jersey. It’s an experience you don’t wash away. You learn your lessons from it and we’ll become a better team for it”

Longer term no one doubts that the players being blooded now won’t be world beaters come 2019. Reiko Ioane for example has nine tries in his first ten internationals. Damian McKenzie at full back is an exciting runner and in the absence of the concussed Beauden Barrett has gained value high pressure goal-kicking experience just to name two stars introduced to international rugby over the past year.

For now though perhaps next time the All Blacks face a top side we can go into the match thinking “will they win?” rather than “how much will they win by?”

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