The Road to Riches 5th-8th April

Coming up this weekend

- Football, Premier League fixtures include Manchester United v Manchester City and Everton v Liverpool

- Formula One, the Bahrain Grand Prix

- Cricket, the start of the IPL.

- Racing, Over the jumps at Kelso, Stratford and Uttoxeter on the flat at Kempton. All-weather racing at Wolverhampton.

- Tennis, Davis Cup World Group Quarter-Finals

- Golf, the Masters at Augusta.

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The 2018 Masters

As a complement to Neil’s work, a look at the Masters but not seeking to focus on the head of the market where all the attention is. So we all know that Tiger is on the way back, that Bubba has been backed from 50/1 into 16/1, that Justin Thomas has been firing all season (4 wins in 1his last 14 starts) and is on the verge of world number one and in general terms there is a big split in the betting market big names/top of the world rankings to the rest with the top 15 33-1 or shorter.

 In terms of the event we know what sort of criteria we are looking for:

- It’s tough to win as a debutant.

Fuzzy Zoeller,1979 (pub quiz staple answer), and that's it

- Good form

Since 2011 form players that season have won the Masters

• Sergio Garcia 2017 pre-masters 1 win, 1 Top 10
• Danny Willett 2016 pre-Masters: 1 Win, 1 Top 10
• Jordan Spieth 2015: 1 Win, 6 Top 10s
• Bubba Watson 2014: 1 Win, 3 Top 10s
• Adam Scott 2013: 1 Top 10 
• Bubba Watson 2012: 3 Top 10s
• Charl Schwartzel 2011: 1 Win, 3 Top 10s.

Specifically a Betfair preview tells me that 8 of the last ten winners have finished in the top thirty in at least one of their two starts before the Masters

- A Long hitter.

Since the course was changed nine years ago every winner has been in the top third in terms of power hitting stats using Distance to Apex (Distance in yards from the Tee to the Apex on Par 4 and Par 5 tee shots) as a proxy.

Augusta is a 7,435 yard Par 72. All fairways are mown towards the tee to minimise run (and it effectively plays around 7,800 yards) so obviously length in the air off the tee is a factor

Making the real difference at Augusta is the ability to reach as many of the par-5s as possible in two shots. Your selection has to be long enough to be competitive.

- Preferably shape it both ways

A number of Augusta's holes are right-to-left doglegs so players who can shape the ball around the corner off the tee will be sought. You’ll hear a lot about being needing to be able to draw the ball to win.

"You don't have to draw the ball as much as people think," said Paul Casey. "You've got to be able to work the ball a bit right to left, but you don't need a big hook. You need a high ball flight, just to land it softly on some of those greens."

Dustin Johnson said: "I think you've got to curve it both ways. I don't think it's imperative to have a draw. You have to have every aspect of your game on here, control of spin, distance control, trajectory”.

- Short game

Putting well is an advantage though the stats suggest its not the huge advantage previously thought, the greens (unless the course comes up soft after bad weather) will be fast though. Scrambling well is a huge asset too.

Other tenets that I regard as “just one of those things” are the poor record of world number ones at Augusta, and the rarity of defending a title. It’s the factors above that help me form a short-list.

I was researching away and wanted to revisit a player we have backed in this column for majors before:

This player is ranked 16^th in the OWGR but is outside the top 20 in the betting and has:

• Six top twenty and four top ten finishes in majors (Tied 4th in the Masters in 2013 and losing in the play-off at the 2015 St Andrews Open included) including as recently at the Open last year (T6) and the PGA (T13).
• He has four top ten finishes this year in ten events and tied seventh in the Arnold Palmer Invitational two starts ago, also finishing T7 at the Tournament of Champions and T8 at Torrey Pines.  Has only one missed cut.
• Top 15% (ranked 30^th out of 213) in Driving distance to Apex year to date on the US Tour.

There are some 10 places around the industry as you probably have heard, albeit at the expense of an inflated over-round and skinnier place terms and whilst all the extra places are important here for this particular player we can get 8 places 1/5 at 60/1 with Bet365 but are asked to take 45 or 40-1 for ten places with Skybet or Coral.

I think Marc Leishman, in betting terms, flies under the radar quite consistently and is reasonably unfashionable which I like. Top 15 in two majors last year. We could do with his putter getting a bit hotter, compared to last year it hasn’t been but he is the sort of player who does hit streaks and when not “on” finishes there or thereabouts a lot.

5 points each way Marc Leishman 2018 Masters 60/1 Bet365 (1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8) 60/1 Sportingbet and Betfred (1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6)

A proper sporting scandal

As we all know The Australian cricket team is currently caught up in an embarrassing cricket scandal. Three players on the team have been suspended for 9-12 months, including the captain and vice-captain after being caught cheating in a Test match in South Africa. The coach, though exonerated from involvement, has subsequently resigned too.

I wanted to write about possible betting angles in the light of the incident, but that’s probably too early but also about the background to why Cricket Australia acted as it did in what most would now agree was administering quite a draconian punishment.

Australia (alongside India and England) is one of the “big three” power brokers in the global game and it is in because of that position that some of what has followed the event has taken a different path than might otherwise have been the case.

In the third test, the Aussies were in a losing position with a first innings deficit and, with the shine from the new ball now past, having trouble getting any of the South African batsmen out. During lunch, Australian captain Steve Smith and specifically vice-captain David Warner hatched a plan to tamper with the ball. Junior player Cameron Bancroft is in the vicinity and is drawn into the conversation. The trio decide to get some sandpaper from a kit bag and are looking to get some dirt on it with the hopes of being able to scuff up one side of the ball. The aim of this is to get the ball to reverse swing, behaving unpredictably and thus increase the possibility of a false shot from the batsman.

Bancroft puts the sandpaper in his trousers and when the opportunity presents itself, he gets some dirt to put on it. He then uses it to scuff up the. The plan goes awry when cameras capture him doing this and when the on-field umpires are informed by the third umpire who is watching this on the TV, they come to ask questions, and shoves the offending item down the front of his trousers. Bancroft shows the officials a sunglasses bag in his pocket as cover. His cover is quickly blown when the cameras also capture the cover-up.

Smith and Bancroft admit wrong-doing at the end of the day’s play. Cricket Australia chief executive James Sutherland was forced to fly to South Africa to clear up the situation. The ICC initially imposed a one match sanction on the players in line with its code of conduct but to Cricket Australia’s credit they soon introduced harsher punishments.

That they did so reflects the importance of cricket to the Australian population. It is commonly said in Australia that the captain of the national cricket team is the second most important job in the land. The role goes beyond sport; it bequeaths a certain moral authority, too. In the last 30 years, three Australian captains have won the Australian of the year award!

“This is a shocking disappointment. It’s wrong,” said Australia’s prime minister, who noted that cricket stars were held in higher regard than politicians. “Our cricketers are role models and cricket is synonymous with fair play. How can our team be engaged in cheating like this? It beggars belief.” All one can say to that high-horsery is, he can’t have been watching this Australian team much recently!

What then happened was that Smith/Warner/Bancroft got caught up in an unstoppable whirlwind of media sensationalism and lack of popularity in the world of cricket. As a result the punishments are disproportionate.

Cheating is a problem in many sports and in my view an instance of ball tampering, albeit blatant and pre-meditated with the lies that followed, is not on the same level as spot fixing or doping but the one year punishments in which the three players are limited to playing club cricket should be a powerful deterrent and are draconian but reflect Australia’s perception of the importance of their cricket team, the stunned reaction of sponsors and broadcasters and Australia’s self-perceived position as a moral arbiter of the game no matter the toxic behaviour of its players in many a series in recent years. Winning, as they were doing consistently, tends to allow such behaviour to be tolerated.

In addition Smith and Warner, two of  the sports highest profile stars, have been sacked from their IPL franchises for the competition due to start in a week and their loss of earnings is projected as between $3-5m each over the time frame of their ban.

Fair play to Bancroft and Smith for tackling their mistakes head on in press conferences, which were a difficult and emotional watch. Being able to own up and take responsibility takes fortitude and hopefully there is a way back for both post ban. For Warner, the agitator of the whole mess, the way back is far less certain. Warner’s failure in his press conference to answer specific questions about whether it was a one-off episode or whether more than three players were involved keeps flaming the fires of suspicion.

From a results and betting perspective the importance of Smith and Warner to Australia’s test team cannot be overstated. Since the start of 2014 they have scored 37% of Australia’s runs in test cricket comfortably the highest proportion by the top to run scorers in any test team over this time span. Smith’s average for Australia of over 60 is second all-time to only Bradman.

2-1 down in Johannesburg and without these key players Australia went off 5/2 and South Africa 4/7 so markets factored in Australia’s weaker prospects quickly as you would expect.

In more general terms, perhaps if this is a deterrent to underhand practice in the international game, and reverse swing becomes less likely (let us assume that many teams practice the dark arts to some extent!) then batting totals will be higher, teams will be harder to dismiss and there might be more draws in test cricket, but it is probably too early to draw that conclusion, but worth watching.

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If you bet £10 per point on every recommended bet since launch you would be winning + £44,418.20. All bets have an ROI +4.06%

A £4000 bank (see FAQ re bank-roll requirements) betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth £48,418.20 a 1110% increase.

(correct at 28/02/18)

The Road to Riches Weekend of 31st March-1st April

Coming up this weekend

- Football, Premier League fixtures include Chelsea v Tottenham Hotspur

- Rugby Union, the European Champions Cup Quarter finals.

- Cricket, the second Test between New Zealand and England in Christchurch.

- Racing, Over the jumps at Carlisle, Haydock and Newton Abbot and on the flat at Kempton and Musselburgh. All-weather racing at Chelmsford City.

- Tennis, ATP Miami Open

- Golf, the Houston Open on the USPGA.

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European Champions Cup Quarter Final Rugby Leinster v Saracens Sunday 1^st April 3.30pm

Saracens are double defending champions whilst Leinster go into the knockout stages as top seeds, a team containing the core of Irish national side supplemented Academy talent such as Larmour and Byrne.

A key to this game will come in player workload and freshness. For while Leinster’s key players rested after the grand slam win Saracens English contingent, minus Farrell, were pressed back into Aviva action game v Quins last weekend and a week later they have to front up at the Aviva Stadium against one of the top sides in this year’s competition, it’s a tough prospect.

Leinster recordedonly their fourth defeat (32-18) of the season in all competitions against Ospreys at the Liberty Stadium last weekend but rested Sexton, Garry Ringrose, Tadhg Furlong and others.  

In an interview this week carried in the Telegraph Sexton said

“I think we've got a great system here. I've been on the other side of the fence [with Racing 92 in France's Top 14] and it can be tough when you are trying to do your best for club and country because you're never going to say no. I remember playing for Racing in the middle of a Six Nations when we were going for a Grand Slam and I had to go and play a game in between those international games. In an ideal world you don't have to play those games. Where we really get looked after is during pre-season and leading up to World Cups and stuff. We are very well looked after.”

This season there has been a shift in the balance of power in the ERCC with only one English team in the Quarter finals and three from the Pro 14 plus the usual strong French contingent.

Leinster won 6 of 6 in a pool containing Aviva champions Exeter, Glasgow and Montpellier and are top of Pro 14 conference ahead of fellow European QF Scarlets. Saracens crept into the quarters as one of the three best runners up, in an indifferent season by their standards where they have lost 6 Aviva premiership games where their squad has been regularly injury hit.

What Saracens have in their favour, and will probably help them keep the match close is that they are streetwise with huge experience in knockout rugby and big game players but have to overcome fatigue and Leinster’s home advantage which is considerable. Leinster are 4/11 outright and -6. The bet I like is

8 points Leinster to win by 1-12 points 13/8 Skybet 6/4 Betfred,Sportingbet

Rest!

Pre-tournament the expectation was that the Six Nations final weekend would see a head to head between England and Ireland for the Championship.  What transpired was a one sided game with Ireland winning the Grand Slam and England losing their third game in a row and finishing fifth in the Championship.

England looked knackered; devoid of energy and impetus, with Ireland dominating collisions but why did England look so lethargic? Explanations have ranged from England’s representation on the 2017 Lions tour to the introduction of those Lions players back in to domestic rugby and the amount of match time the players have contributed  in the season to date to “over-training” under Eddie Jones.

Asked if there is a case for the England players who went on the Lions tour missing the upcoming Springboks series, Toby Flood told Omnisport: "Yes, but I think there is also a case for talking about how hard England train. They talk about how they train faster, quicker and harder than they would want to do and experience in a Test match scenario. That is serious training, Test match rugby is as hard as it gets and if there is bits and pieces coming out with players saying they have had the hardest session in their career towards the back end of the Six Nations....you've got to be sensible.”

In terms of the Lions Tour although there was a large spread in the number of minutes played by each player across the tour there was no real bias towards players in a specific nation with the playing load fairly evenly spread across England, Ireland and Wales.

The final Lions test was on the 8th July. The Pro14 and Aviva Premiership domestic seasons started on the first weekend of September. In simple terms the Irish players had the longest “rest period” between the end of the Lions tour and their return to domestic rugby. 

Maro Itoje returned for Saracens on the opening day of the season and played the full 80 minutes for the first 4 games of the season, while Owen Farrell, who had played every minute of the 3 Lions tests, returned a week later. By comparison, the likes of Conor Murray, Johnny Sexton and Tadhg Furlong returned to action around the end of September.

This means that Owen Farrell’s season was nearly 3 weeks longer than Johnny Sexton’s by the time they met in Twickenham. In 2017-18 Owen Farrell has played 1200 minutes of rugby, Sexton 600!  

Looking at the number of minutes of playing time each player in the match day squad for the England versus Ireland fixture has made during the season the Ireland squad have played an average of 1006 minutes over the season, which equates to 12.6 games. England by comparison have played 1367 minutes on average, or 17.1 games. 

So, not only were the key Irish players who went on the Lions tour, getting a longer rest than the English based players, the Irish squad as a whole has also played fewer games over the season to date.  The combination of these two factors must have a material impact on a game at the elite level.

The major disparity comes in their appearances in domestic rugby. The Irish match day 23 that played against England had only played an average of 4.8 games in the Pro 14. The England squad had played an average of 8.4 games.

Of course this is related to the structure of the game in the two countries, where Ireland’s players are centrally contracted and England’s top players are contracted by their clubs. The difference in structure of the Irish and England game is summed-up by team selections for last weekend. The likes of Itoje, Robshaw, Launchbury all started for their clubs; Sexton, Murray, Best were among those to be rested by their provinces. For England 17 of the Ireland match 23 started in the league this weekend. Two were benched, four injured and none rested.

This is the conflicted position England's players find themselves in.  Something has to give, at some point, doesn't it? England’s top players aren’t chasing the cash because they have to play in the Aviva if they want to play for England. However look at what Farrell has got to do. Saracens have got a Champions Cup quarter-final at Leinster this week then back for the end of the back for the Premiership, off to South Africa, back for a World Cup season, the treadmill is never-ending.

There’s not a game in the Premiership that doesn’t count for something, be it relegation, top six or seven for Europe, top four for the play-offs. The way that salary cap is set means that wages have gone up and teams have had to trim squads, from, 45 to 42 to 41 to 39 this season.

Ultimately this is going to cost England at the 2019 Rugby World Cup, with the structure of the English domestic game (and a fractious relationship between clubs and the RFU) a severe drawback to the prospects of English success. For whilst England’s players trudge from competition to competition the All Blacks for example are operating under the “Irish model”. Between their autumn tour and the start of Super Rugby, their players had 14 weeks off.

There is no sign of change either as there are putative plans to extend the English domestic season to 11 months!

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If you bet £10 per point on every recommended bet since launch you would be winning + £44,418.20. All bets have an ROI +4.06%

A £4000 bank (see FAQ re bank-roll requirements) betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth £48,418.20 a 1110% increase.

(correct at 28/02/18)

The Road to Riches Weekend of 24th-25th March

Coming up this weekend

- Football, A series of International Friendlies including Netherlands v England on Friday

- Formula One, the first Grand Prix of the new season, in Melbourne.

- Cricket, the first Test between New Zealand and England in Auckland continues (just).

- Racing,  Over the jumps at Newbury and Bangor and the start of the new flat season at Doncaster. All-weather racing at Lingfield and Wolverhampton.

- Tennis, ATP Miami Open

- Golf, the WGC Dell Technologies Match-Play at Austin, Texas

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The Lincoln Handicap at Doncaster Saturday 3.35pm by Neil Channing

The Lincoln at Doncaster will be run on fairly soft ground, some people were saying today it would be drying up but it looks like it's raining according to the world wide web. On soft ground the advantage to high numbers is really exaggerated so my plan is to simply focus on those who are drawn 14 and above which leaves us just eight instead of 22 to think about. The other clear trend here is to go for a younger horse, ideally six or younger. From a betting point of view we have 1/4 1,2,3,4 and that gives the edge to the punter on the place part of an each-way bet. With three horses trading at 7/1 and under the horses that are between 12/1 and 20/1 are the ones to focus on, as that is the area where you get the most +ev on the place.

Cricket is becoming two sports with two sets of players and an increasing tension between inherited traditions and the global ambition and broadcasting interest in the shorter formats.

Ten years ago Lalit Modi launched the Indian Premier League. The IPL was set up because there was a void in the market. Modi said last year “India was one of the largest democracies in the world, we had close to 1.2 billion people, and we didn’t have a sport or a league that we could actually call our own.”

Over the past decade, India has created a vast new audience for the shorter form of the game, pouring in billions and pulling the centre of power within the sport to the East. Some of the top talents in the game pulled out of Test cricket to preserve their bodies for the shorter, more lucrative form of the game.

Whereas Test cricket is a test of character in which patience, stamina, attrition and mental toughness are prized, Twenty20 requires a totally different set of skills and the T20 format has prompted plenty of innovation.

Test cricket meanwhile is in a bad way. There are many reasons for this, from insane scheduling (take England, now starting another two Test series 18 weeks into a mammoth winter tour and 58 all out is another jolt to the system) to many flat pitches, the removal of Tests from terrestrial television and modern lifestyles that provide alternative forms of entertainment and a younger generation with a shorter attention span than test cricket demands. Undoubtedly, however, a principal cause of Test cricket’s increasing malaise is the draining of talent, resources, and attention spans towards Twenty20, and the consequent concentration of power within India. 

“Cricket is going to change even more in the next ten years than it has in the previous ten,” England’s one-day captain, Eoin Morgan, said recently. “I’d say, if anything, the formats are getting further and further apart.”

At present there is very little opportunity for any elite cricketer to excel in all three formats concurrently, with India's Virat Kohli perhaps the exception to that. Australia's Steve Smith joined Joe Root in missing the recent T20 tri-series in the wake of a busy winter. He now faces a struggle to regain his place among a team of specialists who took that competition by storm.

Root said of the temptation to specialise in white-ball cricket. "You can't place blame on individuals, there's an issue higher up than that, and I think schedules will have to be changed.If you're playing all three formats, somewhere down the line you're going to have to miss some cricket. Personally, mine's been in T20 series - I'm obviously not going to miss any Test cricket now and, with a 50-over World Cup next year, there's a big focus on playing that.”

Meanwhile there is now little overseas preparation for long tours as there isn’t time in a hectic schedule. Players play a warm-up game or two, then take on hosts five times in a row. In that context, why are five Tests assumed to be better than three or four?

If Test cricket is not to become a museum piece it needs a plan. Luckily, there is still a deep love for the game in England and teams fall over themselves to host us and our group of travelling supporters who provide valuable tourism revenue but without innovation in the long form of the game, the signs are not good for its relevance in the future.

In the meantime the winter tour which will soon (eventually) finish tour has neatly summed up the state of English cricket. The Tests were/are disappointing but the white-ball team is strong and that reflects where priorities lie at the moment. If it ends up with a World Cup win then focussing on white-ball cricket might be said by many to be worth it. To win a World Cup at home would be a massive lift for the game but again, it is the shorter formats that are drawing attention. 

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There are literally hundreds of pounds on offer from bookmakers just for signing up through Bettingemporium.com

Betting Emporium results

The detailed results page has been updated as have the spreadsheets with the detailed bets. They can be found by clicking RESULTS

If you bet £10 per point on every recommended bet since launch you would be winning + £44,418.20. All bets have an ROI +4.06%

A £4000 bank (see FAQ re bank-roll requirements) betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth £48,418.20 a 1110% increase.

(correct at 28/02/18)

The Road to Riches Weekend of 17th-18th March

Coming up this weekend

- Football, The FA Cup Quarter finals and four Premier League fixtures

- Rugby Union, the final weekend of the Six Nations, Ireland going for the grand slam at Twickenham.

- Racing, Over the jumps at Fontwell, Kempton, Newcastle and Uttoxeter. All-weather racing at Wolverhampton.

- Tennis, The ATP Indian Wells Masters in California

- Golf, On the USPGA the Arnold Palmer Invitational at Bay Hill. On the European Tour the Phillipines Golf Championship

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FA Cup Quarter Final Wigan v Southampton Sunday 1.30pm (BBC1)

Earlier this week I had done my notes and found an angle here and then, after 1 win in 17 matches, Southampton sacked Pellegrino. My thoughts turned towards finding another bet in another sport for this weekend. I think the legwork might have been rescued by the appointment of Mark Hughes as the new manager though so here goes…

In League One, promotion chasing Wigan are a tough prospect to face at home. In their last seven games, they have kept clean sheets six times, and all the matches saw both teams not to score and under 2.5 goals. They have only lost two games at home all season and in 18 league games have conceded only nine goals. Overall they have only conceded 23 in 34 (another clean sheet at Bradford on Wednesday) and in the combination of Nick Powell and Will Grigg (he’s on fire) they have 23 goals at the other end.

Southampton have had an extremely conservative tactical approach all season and have scored 13 goals in 14 Premier League away games and 29 in 30 overall but are well organised defensively. They have drawn 13 of 30 league games. Particularly with Austin out, they lack goals but in the back eight the side are compact and well drilled

Now my angle here (there are no replays in the FA Cup from this stage of the competition) was that the game shouldn’t contain many goals and that the  price of 12/5 the draw (in a match where u2.5 goals is 8/13) was too high

Following the sacking the question then became what might a new manager do in his first few days to begin to turn Southampton round. Then it struck me that they made the change now because it is over a fortnight until Southampton’s next Premier League fixture (the whopper for the bottom six that is West Ham away) because of the international break and that the new manager wouldn’t be expected to change much this weekend. Changing now has given them some time and the new manager a fortnight on the training pitch, to do a “Carvahal” rather than a “Pardew” to give the two extremes of new manager “bounce” and “no bounce” in the league this season. Interestingly of the 8 managerial changes in the Premier League up to now seven have seen an improvement in points per game subsequently.

So, I came round to the view that the original anaylsis applies and the draw is the bet.

10 points Wigan and Southampton to draw 12/5 Bet365 and Betfred

A fair fight?

Next weekend sees the start of the 2018 Formula One season and in the off-season Formula 1 (under the control of new owners Liberty Media) and governing body the FIA laid out proposals for the next generation of F1 power units (PU), with improved noise, reduced cost, and a more level playing field among the key objectives.  The hope is that it will create the conditions to facilitate new manufacturers entering Formula 1 as power-train suppliers. New F1 has the target to be the world’s leading global sports competition married to state of the art technology.

Design and development will not be possible until all information is released at the end of this next year, thus ensuring manufacturers continue to work on the current specification unit. In the meantime, the FIA and F1 will also work with the teams to establish power unit test and development restrictions as well as other cost containment measures.

The key features of the proposals presented to manufacturer representatives was:

• 1.6 Litre, V6 Turbo Hybrid
• 3000rpm higher engine running speed range to improve the sound
• Prescriptive internal design parameters to restrict development costs and discourage extreme designs and running conditions
• Removal of the MGUH
• More powerful MGUK with focus on manual driver deployment in race together with option to save up energy over several laps to give a driver controlled tactical element to racing
• Single turbo with dimensional constraints and weight limits

 These Proposals created controversy but they are not the main problem F1 must face which is the funding gap between the teams which ultimately leads to (if 2017 was anything to go by) a two-second gap between the leaders and the rest. There is the huge disparity in the funding made available to some teams against others.

Williams exemplify this gap, using the same Mercedes engines as the champions but finished a distant fifth in the constructors’ standings.

It is unsurprising that the engine changes have created dissension based around the principle of keeping the 1.6-litre engine but ditching the complex and expensive motor generator heat unit attached to the turbo in favour of increasing the power of the kinetic energy recovery system.

The reaction from Mercedes and Renault was not favourable, with both concerned it would require them to design new power units and develop them at considerable expense, promoting a new F1 spending arms race.

Then the Ferrari president, Sergio Marchionne, weighed in, saying such was their distaste for the concept of standardised parts it might be enough to make his team quit F1.

Ferrari are the only team to have been in F1 since the first world championship in 1950 and are it’s most successful constructor, giving them strength in negotiations. With Marchionne emphasising that financial commitments in F1 were of huge importance to the car-maker, he has said he would have no qualms about being the man who took Ferrari out of F1 and that such a move would be “totally beneficial to the profit and loss”.

Formula One Group has made it clear that closer, more competitive racing among a greater number of teams is the aim. Bringing together the leaders – Mercedes, Ferrari and Red Bull – with the midfield who are well off their pace is a goal shared by fans. The test will be how to distribute the revenues from F1 more fairly – and ultimately that is likely to be of more concern, particularly to Ferrari.

Ferrari receive a long-standing team bonus estimated to be worth $68m  They also collected a constructors’ championship bonus of more than $30m last year as do Mercedes, Red Bull and McLaren. Williams receive a $10m heritage payment but even including that, the gap in revenue for last year between Williams team and Ferrari is around $100m.

F1 is aware of this issue is clear. “You need competition, you need the unknown, you need great finishes, you need great dramas. We’ve got to create that,” said the Chief Executive. F1 is attempting to sell a big-picture concept that they need many of the vested interests at the top the sport to adopt. Whether they is able to do so is possibly the most important task they will face and one that will decide whether F1 can enter a new era.

Brodders Football Analysis

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The Road to Riches: Weekend of 10th-11th March

Coming Up this weekend

- Football, Premier League fixtures include Manchester United v Liverpool

- Rugby Union, the Fourth Weekend of the Six Nations

- Cricket, the fifth and final match of the ODI Series between New Zealand and England in Christchurch overnight on Friday. The second Test between South Africa and Australia in Port Elizabeth.

- Racing, Over the jumps at Ayr, Hereford and Sandown. All-weather racing at Chelmsford City and Wolverhampton.

- Tennis, The ATP Indian Wells Masters in California

- Golf, On the European Tour the Indian Open.

Cheltenham Festival Tues 13th - Fri 16th March 2018 (Package)

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Cricket New Zealand v England 5th ODI Christchurch Starts 10pm Friday 9th March

Ross Taylor's stunning 181 not out in Dunedin helped New Zealand beat England by five wickets and level the one-day series at 2-2 with a game remaining. The final ODI takes place in Christchurch on Friday at 22:00 GMT.

England are 3^rd in the ICC ODI rankings, New Zealand 4^th and both sides are in great form in the format. On an otherwise disappointing tour England beat Australia 4-1 either side of the New Year whilst in their recent home series New Zealand beat the West Indies 3-0 and Pakistan 5-0 in ODIs

England are a dangerous ODI side, playing a much more aggressive brand of cricket after their debacle in the 2015 world cup. They bat very deep with a number of all rounders lengthening the order and with the one exception of missing a match winning spinner have talented bowlers with a range of options and despite their tribulations in other formats go well in ODIs. Unlike T20 they aren’t hampered by a lack of specialists and unlike Test cricket if on flat pitches, they can overcome the lack of match winning bowling depth.

New Zealand though are also a fine team able to play in a variety of manners. Guptill and Munro can blast at the top of the order if need be while Williamson and Taylor can accumulate in the middle order. Southee and Boult are experienced quick bowlers and in Mitchell Santner they have one of the fastest developing spinners in the limited overs game

I expected this to be a very closely fought series between well matched sides, 3-2 either way is my expected result and this will be the outcome.

Ross Taylor's stunning 181 not out helped New Zealand beat England by five wickets and level the one-day series at 2-2 with a game remaining.

Jonny Bairstow's 138 and Joe Root's 102 helped England post 335-9, despite a collapse of 21-6 in Dunedin, a middle overs setback that was to prevent them reaching 400 and leave New Zealand a chaseable score. Their big hitters fell quickly, giving themselves no time to settle in. Eoin Morgan and Ben Stokes were caught attempting big shots, Buttler was caught and bowled by Sodhi and the slow bowler's flight deceived Moeen as he returned figures of 4-58

Ross Taylor then played superbly to guide the hosts through the chase. With three runs needed from the final over, Henry Nicholls struck a six to secure an impressive win.

Just 16 months ago, Taylor was struggling to see the way the ball moved, and underwent surgery to remove a small growth from his left eye in January 2017. Since then, he has averaged 65.50 in one-day cricket, with four centuries and nine half-centuries to his name.

For this game at a venue I wanted to look at Kane Williamson who will be batting at three for New Zealand and they will look to base an innings around him

Williamson, one of the best batsmen in all formats of World Cricket,  has made his orthodoxy work and is capable of scoring at a brisk tempo - he has a T20 hundred for Northern Knights and became the quickest New Zealand batsman, and fifth overall, to 3000 ODI runs. For a measure of his consistency, he has two streaks of five or more successive fifty-plus scores in ODIs in 20 months since 2014.

Overall he has 5000 ODI runs at an average of 46 with ten hundreds and 33 fifties and is

100/30 in a place and 3-1 generally to be top New Zealand scorer here even after his 112* in the 3^rd ODI at Wellington. Helpfully for this bet, Ross Taylor who we would expect to be in the top three in the market here, is likely to be out injured.

9 points Kane Williamson Top New Zealand batsman 5th ODI New Zealand v England, 7/2 SkyBet 100/30 Bet365 and William Hill

New Beginnings

Seven NFL teams are in the off-season with new coaching teams. With the NFL combine last week showcasing the talent coming out of college for the upcoming draft and free agency about to start, here is a look at the seven teams to see which direction they might head.

It has long been one of the attractions of the sport for me that the salary cap, draft and free agency produces the possibility for sides to move from the bottom towards the top very quickly. Indeed in each of the last twelve years a side that has finished bottom of its division one season has won it the next and the betting opportunities that produces ante-post.

Just looking at what new coach Sean McVay did in his first season with the Rams shows what can be done in these turn-around situations.

Tennessee Titans: Head Coach Mike Vrabel

As a former NFL linebacker and Texans defensive coordinator, Vrabel comes to Tennessee as a defensive-minded coach. Priority number one for him is going to be helping quarterback Marcus Mariota, whose development stalled in his third year with a 13-touchdown, 15-interception season.

 “We’re going to give Marcus some easy access throws and RPOs [run-pass options],” Vrabel said in his first press conference “We’re not going to run it into eight or nine guys. I believe in screens. I believe in play-action, things [Mariota] does well.”

In other words, Vrabel plans to ditch the Titans’ outdated scheme. Mike Mularkey’s offense wasn’t a good fit for Mariota’s skill set, and its design ran counter to just about everything that earned Mariota the Heisman Trophy. Instead of spreading things out and picking up the tempo, the Titans compressed the field with tight end–heavy formations and ran the ball more than all but seven teams. Despite the fact Mariota was one of the league’s most efficient passers off of play-action, he finished the year ranked just 13^th in play-action attempts, and in the team’s divisional-round loss to the Patriots, Mariota threw just three passes off of play-action fakes.

Arizona Cardinals: Head Coach Steve Wilks

With no starting quarterbacks under contract (Carson Palmer retired) and the brilliant veteran receiver Larry Fitzgerald’s future unresolved, the Cardinals are in the early stages of a rebuild having carried the oldest roster in the NFL last season.

In hiring former Panthers defensive coordinator Steve Wilks, Arizona has at least put its excellent defense in capable hands. Wilks will look to instill the Panthers’ toughness and physicality on defense.

Wilks coached a 4-3 system in Carolina and comes to a team that’s been running a 3-4 defense over the past few years, but those distinctions really don’t matter anymore with the use of so many defensive sub-packages in the NFL. Whether they’re lining up with their hand on the ground or rushing from a two-point stance, the trio of Chandler Jones, Markus Golden, and Hassan Reddick will make for interesting pieces of Wilks’s new system. Considering Wilks’s background is in coaching defensive backs it will be intriguing to watch how he deploys an elite cornerback like Patrick Peterson along with the team’s two dynamic playmaking safeties Tyrann Mathieu and Budda Baker.

Much of the team’s success will hinge on who he and Wilks find for the quarterback spot, with the draft an almost certainty (in a year with 5-6 potential starting quarterbacks likely to be picked in the draft’s first round) and they are likely to be in the Kirk Cousins sweepstakes, albeit as outsiders.

New York Giants: Head Coach Pat Shurmur

Going with former Vikings offensive coordinator and renowned quarterback guru Pat Shurmur looks like a smart choice for a Giants franchise that’s trying to get the most out of the last few years of Eli Manning’s career. Shurmur drew interest for head-coach openings because of the work he’s done with Case Keenum and Sam Bradford during the past two years.

His ability to design schemes that boost efficiency and accentuate the specific skills of his quarterbacks make him a great fit with a passer like Manning who has throughout his career shown the ability to hit some of the toughest throws  on one play, and then throw an interception on the next play. Shurmur, who will be calling plays for the offense, is working with a Giants offense that has a top-tier pass catcher in Odell Beckham Jr. and another couple of talented playmakers in Sterling Shepard and Evan Engram. They could well draft the running back Saquon Barkley at number 2 and that would make for a very powerful looking set of options on offense.

Longer term, Shurmur looks well-suited to usher in the transition away from Manning, whenever that happens. Maybe the team goes with Davis Webb, the Giants’ third-round pick last year, or maybe they use this year’s second overall pick on a quarterback. Either way, Shurmur’s role as the team’s new quarterback "whisperer" will mean he’s under the spotlight.

Defensively, the team brought in former Cardinals defensive coordinator James Bettcher, who will install his version of Arizona’s aggressive scheme and has aready traded for a linebacker, Alec Ogletree from the Rams. The Giants’ talented secondary and strong pass-rushing group should fit really well in Bettcher’s system. The offensive line needs a big, and likely expensive upgrade to allow those skill position players to really make hay. If it falls right this team could be THE candidate for a big rebound next season.

Chicago Bears: Head Coach Matt Nagy

More any other hire, bringing in Nagy from the Chiefs feels analogous to the transition the Rams went through last year from Jeff Fisher’s staff to that of McVay. Nagy cut his teeth as Andy Reid’s offensive coordinator and ended the season calling plays for Kansas City’s West Coast offense, which featured many college-style RPOs and read-option plays. Add in new offensive coordinator Mark Helfrich, who came up under Chip Kelly at Oregon before taking over as head coach in 2013, and the Bears could feature one of the most forward-thinking and fun offenses in the NFL next year.

That Chiefs-style scheme, which marries the college game and the pro game, seems like the perfect fit for quarterback Mitchell Trubisky, an athletic young passer who played in a spread offense in college. Plus, based on what the Chiefs got out of rushing champion Kareem Hunt this season, it’s exciting to imagine what Nagy and his staff will cook up for their two running backs Jordan Howard and Tarik Cohen.

Nagy doesn’t appear to be changing much on defense. Instead, he’s entrusting that high-potential group to incumbent defensive coordinator Vic Fangio, whom the team gave a three-year extension.

Oakland Raiders: Head Coach Jon Gruden

More than any other coaching change this year, the Gruden hire brings uncertainty. After being out of football for the past nine years, it’s fair to wonder how he will be able to pick back up his play-calling duties, and we’ll have to wait and see whether or not Gruden’s system will work in a 2018 NFL. He has already publically eschewed a big use of data for example and players on both sides of the ball are faster and more athletic than they were a decade or more ago. Will he stick to a philosophy that made him a success back in the late 1990s or evolve to throw more and incorporate college-style plays? It’s hard to know exactly what this Oakland offense will look like.

In any case, the Raiders’ success in the short term will hinge largely on what Gruden’s able to do with quarterback Derek Carr, who regressed badly in 2017 along with the rest of this Oakland team. Still, with a 10-year, $100 million deal, Gruden’s clearly going to get a lot of leeway to implement his programme.

Detroit Lions: Head Coach Matt Patricia

Patricia brings to Detroit a defensive scheme based on discipline and versatility and a famously sharp mind. Everyone’s favorite talking point is that he’s a rocket scientist!. The Patriots’ squads under Patricia were hard to define because they change so much from game to game, featuring three-man fronts at times and four-man looks at others. Linebackers are asked to both blitz and drop back into coverage, safeties are often interchangeable with corners, and the team seems to take a different game plan into every matchup, custom-tailored to exploit the opponent.

It’s impossible to take Belichick out of the equation, but Patricia’s earned a reputation for the ability to build a scheme around his players and we can expect Detroit’s defense to feature a nimble, hybrid system in 2018.

On offense the running game needs work, and could well be in receipt of a reasonably early round draft pick but the passing game shouldn't need too much tinkering. Detriot could be another team closer to the play-offs than some think.

Indianapolis Colts: Head Coach Frank Reich

Let down at the altar by Josh McDaniels the Colts may have lucked into a good appointment with the former Eagles offensive co-ordinator Frank Reich who it has to be said is moving at a time when his stock is at its highest but nevertheless he should produce some new thinking for a team that had a very predictable offense last season. Of course the short term outlook really depends on whether Andrew Luck returns to action in 2018 but if he does then this is a potential turn-around story too

They are likely to use the third overall draft pick on a defensive player (the defensive side of the ball has been under-invested in for some time, being rectified in the last couple of seasons) and add to that some innovative offense and the wins (Indy led 9 games after 3 quarters and finished with a 4-12 record) should begin to increase. 

Brodders Football Analysis

Long term profit over more than four years. Following Following all bets subscribers are winning £24,256 (£10 a point, average bet £150) +ROI 3.85% (correct at 28/02/18)

Bookmaker reviews and advice

Getting the best price available is very important for all those who take their betting seriously.

Please open an account with all those bookmakers on the page on this link that you do not already have an account with using the links provided.

There are literally hundreds of pounds on offer from bookmakers just for signing up through Bettingemporium.com

Betting Emporium results

The detailed results page has been updated as have the spreadsheets with the detailed bets. They can be found by clicking RESULTS

If you bet £10 per point on every recommended bet since launch you would be winning + £44,418.20. All bets have an ROI +4.06%

A £4000 bank (see FAQ re bank-roll requirements) betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth £48,418.20 a 1110% increase.

(correct at 28/02/18)