Weekly Articles "Road to Riches" by Rich 'Tighty' Prew
The Road to Riches Weekend of 1st-2nd April
Coming Up this weekend
- Football, the Premier League returns after the International break including Arsenal v Manchester City and Liverpool v Everton
- Racing, Flat meetings at Doncaster and Kempton Park, Jumps meetings at Stratford and Uttoxeter with Chelmsford City on the all-weather.
- Rugby Union, the European Rugby Champions Cup Quarter finals
- Tennis, ATP and WTA Miami Open finals
- Golf, on the USPGA the Shell Houston Open,the last tournament before the Masters next week.
Aintree Grand National Festival 6th-8th April 2017 by Neil Channing
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Aintree Grand National Festival (Full 3 Day Package) (6th - 8th April 2017) |
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Aintree Grand National Saturday (8th April 2017) |
French Open Tennis (Roland Garros) 28th May to 11th June 2017
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French Tennis Open (Roland Garros) (28th May – 11th June 2017) |
Includes the outright and all Nigel's match analysis plus details of all the bets that we have!
Nigel is a long term winner on the darts. If you had bet £10 a point on all his tennis packages you would be winning £1281.20.
Premier League Darts by Nigel Seeley
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Premier League Darts (Thu 2nd Feb – Thu May 18th 2017) |
The package includes the outright analysis and bets and weekly write ups all the way through to Finals Night
Nigel is a long term winner on the darts. If you had bet £10 a point on all his darts packages since 2014 you would be winning £1729.10 with a ROI +5.81%
Free Tip
The 2017 Masters
Neil will be publishing a free piece covering all Masters Markets on Wednesday at 7pm. “Go on, you’ve got to do a Masters tip again in Road to Riches” he said. I have fond memories of a year ago obviously, so let’s try again. The aim here isn’t to tip you Dustin Johnson or Jordan Spieth but to attempt to find a contender at a price, preferably unfashionable/under-rated.
We know what sort of criteria we are looking for:
- It’s tough to win as a debutant.
Fuzzy Zoeller,1979 (pub quiz staple answer), and that's it. If he hadn’t already been backed into 20/1 (66/1 six weeks ago) then the “Next big thing” Jon Rahm would have sorely tested my “no debutant” betting resolve.
- Good form
Since 2011 form players that season have won the Masters
- Danny Willett 2016 pre-Masters: 1 Win, 1 Top 10
- Jordan Spieth 2015: 1 Win, 6 Top 10s
- Bubba Watson 2014: 1 Win, 3 Top 10s
- Adam Scott 2013: 1 Top 10
- Bubba Watson 2012: 3 Top 10s
- Charl Schwartzel 2011: 1 Win, 3 Top 10s .
- A Long hitter.
Since the course was changed nine years ago every winner has been in the top third in terms of power hitting stats using Distance to Apex (Distance in yards from the Tee to the Apex on Par 4 and Par 5 tee shots) as a proxy.
Augusta is a 7,435 yard Par 72. All fairways are mown towards the tee to minimise run (and it effectively plays around 7,800 yards) so obviously length in the air off the tee is a factor
Making the real difference at Augusta is the ability to reach as many of the par-5s as possible in two shots. You don’t need to confine a short-list to Dustin or Bubba but your selection has to be long enough to be competitive.
- Preferably shape it both ways
A number of Augusta's holes are right-to-left doglegs so players who can shape the ball around the corner off the tee will be sought. You’ll hear a lot about being needing to be able to draw the ball to win.
"You don't have to draw the ball as much as people think," said Paul Casey. "You've got to be able to work the ball a bit right to left, but you don't need a big hook. You need a high ball flight, just to land it softly on some of those greens."
Dustin Johnson said: "I think you've got to curve it both ways. I don't think it's imperative to have a draw. You have to have every aspect of your game on here, control of spin, distance control, trajectory”.
- Short game
Putting well is a huge advantage, the greens (unless the course comes up soft after bad weather) will be fast and creativity around the greens in the chipping game can help you save shots too
Other tenets that I regard as “just one of those things” are the poor record of world number ones at Augusta, and the rarity of defending a title. It’s the factors above that help me form a short-list.
I was researching away and had a name in mind
This player has:
- Five top twenty and three top ten finishes in majors (Tied 4th in the Masters in 2013 and losing in the play-off at the 2015 St Andrews Open included) l
- He’s won this year (at Bay Hill) with top tens in Kuala Lumpur and Melbourne. Eight events, only one missed cut and six top 25s.
- He’s in the top 25% in the “Distance to Apex” lists this season (ranks 33rd in the overall driving distance stats)
- Has a really good short game. Ranked 2nd on the PGA Tour this season in putting, 19th in birdies and 6th in scoring average
I happened to watch the last round of the Bay Hill Palmer invitational, where he mashed the par fives and finished like a train to win it (and qualify for the Masters) and went away to try to look for what may or may not suit his game about Augusta. I alighted on the instruction section of www.golf.com and am going to reproduce parts here
“I've always been a very handsy player, much like Geoff Ogilvy or Phil Mickelson. I learned the game in windy South Australia without the help of a dedicated coach. I had to figure out my own way to play in a stiff breeze, so I developed the ability to manipulate the clubface with my hands through impact—faster for a draw, slower for a fade”
“Hardly anyone out here plays a straight ball. We hit draws and fades on almost every swing, which allows us to skirt hazards and reach tucked pins. You can't always do that with a dead-straight shot. Get handsy! You'll avoid trouble and set up a lot more birdies. Handsy players are usually great feel players, which comes in, well, handy when you miss greens. My specialty: pulling off tough chips that other players can't”.
Just what you need at Augusta, I thought
So the fun part is that he’s greater than 66/1 in places. The short term form is good, there are plenty of decent results in majors and when “on” we know he can be competitive here. I wouldn't have blinked if I had seen him in the lists at 33/1,say.
5 points each way Marc Leishman 2017 Masters 80/1 Betfred 70/1 Sportingbet 66/1 generally (1/4 1,2,3,4,5)
Skybet are 8 places 1,2,3,4,5 for you lucky people who are accommodated there and despite the state of the bookmaking industry, you might get offered more places at more firms next week in the lead up to the event. For results purposes we will use 66/1 1/4 5 places as currently widely available at the time of publishing when he wins (humour me).
A look ahead to the Lions Tour, a look back at the Six Nations
England retained their Six Nations title but in many ways this was an unsatisfactory title in what was an exciting but flawed championship in which they only performed sporadically and fell at the final hurdle when going for a second successive grand slam in Dublin.
Bonus points were trialled this year in order to “materially improve what we already have and enhance the competition as a spectacle”. The system made no difference, as was always the risk in a Northern Hemisphere tournament in mid-winter.
England retained their title because they burgled a win in Cardiff. It was the only away win in matches involving the old Five Nations countries. England failed to score a try in Dublin for the third Six Nations match in a row. Wales again failed to attack well consistently, stung into action against Ireland in Cardiff and then looking moribund again in Paris a week later. Ireland were at their most effective when a game went according to script and France played at times as if they had training wheels on, tiptoeing their way into a new off-loading style. In matches not involving Italy, Scotland scored 10 tries, the only team to score a try in every match, and were a lot of fun to watch, but lacked some grunt to go toe to toe with England.
It was not a tournament to worry the All Blacks as they look towards the Lions tour. The Six Nations is a commercial success but still does not repsent the best world rugby has to offer. England are closest but the manner of their defeat in Ireland showed they are building towards the next world cup in 2019.
Looking ahead to the summer, as a sports fan I have always loved the Lions tours even if they often provide slim pickings from a betting perspective. New Zealand is the toughest of all the tours and the schedule this time is great for viewers and terrible for the players, described as "ludicrous" by some figures in the English club game.
The Lions play 10 matches on the tour, with the first game taking place at the start of June, just a week after the Premiership and Pro12 finals. Because of the schedule, the Lions will have limited preparation time and will be forced to fly out in separate parties, with those involved in domestic finals travelling to New Zealand in the week of the tour opener. The third and final Test against the All Blacks takes place on 8 July, when clubs will be starting pre-season training ahead of the 2017-2018 campaign. Such is the concern about the schedule that it ha already been announced that the 2021 Lions Tour will only contain 8 matches.
3 June - Provincial union team (Toll Stadium, Whangarei)
7 June - Blues (Eden Park, Auckland)
10 June - Crusaders (AMI Stadium, Christchurch)
13 June - Highlanders (Forsyth Barr Stadium, Dunedin)
17 June - Maori (International Stadium, Rotorua)
20 June - Chiefs (Waikato Stadium, Hamilton)
24 June - New Zealand (First Test, Eden Park, Auckland)
27 June - Hurricanes (Westpac Stadium, Wellington)
1 July - New Zealand (Second Test, Westpac Stadium, Wellington)
8 July - New Zealand (Third Test, Eden Park, Auckland)
Outside the three tests, four of the five New Zealand Super 18 franchises and the Maoris is as tough as it gets.
The Lions have not won a series in New Zealand since 1971
Whilst New Zealand are clearly the top side in world rugby they do have a potential achilles heel (but possibly one that will be felt more in the generation of squads after this one) with player defections to well funded Northern Hemisphere club rugby diluting their talent pool.
However the scale of the task at the end of a long season with that punishing schedule is clear. Markets have the All Blacks 4/11 to win the first test, 2/7 to win the series and 10/11 to win it 3-0.
The Lions tour party and captain is announced at the end of April.
Brodders Football Analysis
Sign up to Brodders match analysis and recommended bets here for £50 a month. You are free to cancel at any time.
If you had bet £10 a point on all Brodders' 2017 selections (average bet 15 points) you would be winning £5,770. Jan ROI+29.51% Feb ROI+8.34% Mar ROI+15.04%
Long term profit over 3+ years. Following all bets subscribers are winning £26,763.40 (£10 a point, average bet £150) +ROI 6.08% (correct at 22/03/17)
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Euro & other Football by Brodders (monthly) |
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Bookmaker reviews and advice
Getting the best price available is very important for all those who take their betting seriously.
Please open an account with all those bookmakers on the page on this link that you do not already have an account with using the links provided.
Betting Emporium results
The detailed results page has been updated as have the spreadsheets with the detailed bets. They can be found by clicking RESULTS
If you bet £10 per point on every recommended bet since launch you would be winning + £40,345.60 All bets have an ROI +4.82%.
A £4000 bank (see FAQ re bank-roll requirements) betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth £44,345.60 an 1009% increase
(correct at 22/03/17)
The Road to Rches Weekend of 25th-26th March
Coming Up this weekend
- Football, the Premier League International break, with England hosting Lithuania in World Cup Qualifying on Sunday
- Racing, Jumps meetings at Bangor, Kelso, Newbury and Stratford with Lingfield and Wolverhampton on the all-weather.
- Formula One, the opening race of the 2017 season, the Australian Grand Prix in Melbourne
- Tennis, ATP and WTA Miami Open in Florida
- Golf, the World Golf Championships Match-play in Austin, Texas and on the USPGA the Puerto Rico Open
- Cricket, the fourth test between India and Australia in Dharamsala. The English domestic season begins with MCC v Champion county Middlesex in Dubai
Aintree Grand National Festival 6th-8th April 2017 by Neil Channing
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Aintree Grand National Festival (Full 3 Day Package) (6th - 8th April 2017) |
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Aintree Grand National Saturday (8th April 2017) |
French Open Tennis (Roland Garros) 28th May to 11th June 2017
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French Tennis Open (Roland Garros) (28th May - 11th June 2017) |
Includes the outright and all Nigel's match analysis plus details of all the bets that we have!
Nigel is a long term winner on the darts. If you had bet £10 a point on all his tennis packages you would be winning £1281.20.
Premier League Darts by Nigel Seeley
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Premier League Darts (Thu 2nd Feb – Thu May 18th 2017) |
The package includes the outright analysis and bets and weekly write ups all the way through to Finals Night
Nigel is a long term winner on the darts. If you had bet £10 a point on all his darts packages since 2014 you would be winning £1729.10 with a ROI +5.81%
Free Tip
Cricket 2017 County Championship Division Two .
This weekend marks the start of the 2017 English cricket season with the MCC v Champion county curtain-raiser. I wouldn’t normally put a six month ante-post bet up in this column but I think this one is rock solid, probably one of the best cricket bets I have seen given the structural dynamics within English domestic cricket.
This season there has been an adjustment to the County Championship with a first division of eight teams and a second division of ten teams (last season: nine teams each). The first division is extremely competitive where almost every side will spend up to the salary cap limit and it would be possible to make a case for six of the eight teams to win what is now a shortened, and therefore in itself from a betting perspective, higher variance season. (Somerset at 8/1if you are asking)
The second division is a less competitive beast. Were you to start off designing English county cricket from a blank piece of paper you probably wouldn’t start with 18 counties. Understandably there are powerful forces that protect the status quo and a lot of us old timers enjoy domestic cricket but that number is dwindling and for many of the smaller counties it is a struggle to make ends meet with small attendances.
Having a ground that stages Test cricket is a big advantage from a revenue perspective of course, and only one of the sides in the second division this season, Nottinghamshire who were relegated last season, has that financial boost from hosting test cricket regularly in a division where at least six of the 10 teams will not spend up to the salary cap, and several sides will comprise up and coming youngsters (these sides have to develop players, getting a Ben Duckett for example through to play for England is worth huge amounts of money for a smaller county) and gnarled veterans but few will contain the consistent match winners you need for promotion.
Over and above that the other “big” side in the division ( Durham ) were relegated into it with a 48 point deduction for this season by the ECB. Over a 14 game season with much of the season shoe-horned into weather affected April-June and September (increasingly marginalised because the revenue from the various one day competitions is bigger and they are scheduled for peak summer) with a maximum of 24 points for each win that means Durham start two games back from the rest. Not insurmountable, but highly unlikely they’ll win the division
I can split the ten teams in this division into a couple of groups
Favourites
Notts, -a big club, test ground, spend up to salary cap, relegated in 2016. Seeing Notts in Division 2 is a bit like looking at Newcastle once relegated into the Skybet football championship. Simply have to be there or thereabouts.
Sussex, relegated in 2015 and likely to be competititive
Kent, a fast developing young side with a lot of talent, second in 2016 (in a year with only one side promoted,unfortunately)
Worcestershire, a yo-yo team between the divisions also with plenty of young talent
The rest
Northants (one day specialists, which is where they concentrate their resources)
Derbyshire
Gloucestershire
Glamorgan (very good youth system, possibly a team for the one day tournaments this summer at a price)
Leicestershire
Durham (points deduction)
Now here we have the quirk that gives us a bet. The ten teams do NOT play each other home and away through this season. They each play 14 games playing five sides twice and four sides once.
Notts, the richest club in the division who retain all bar one of their squad last year (and there is a huge difference especially in the bowling attacks division one compared to division two) play only one of the group of favourites - Sussex, Kent, Worcs (and Durham) - twice (Sussex). They play the following other teams twice: Gloucs, Leics, Derby and Northants. The disparity in resources within the division makes this fixture list look very attractive.
The Notts squad underperformed last year but from top to bottom remains strong and any of all of Riki Wessels, Samit Patel, Brendan Taylor, Harry Gurney, Jake Ball and Alex Hales (Ball and Hales if not on England duty) to name just some of the more familiar names should have big seasons against weaker opposition.
Compare and contrast the Notts fixtures with Sussex and Kent, who should be the closest challengers. Sussex’s home and away fixtures are Kent, Notts, Durham and Worcs, It couldn’t be any tougher. Kent get Sussex and Durham twice
So current prices are
Notts 9/4
Sussex 7/2
Kent 9/2
Worcs 7/1
14/1 bar.
I have been nibbling away at Notts all winter because of the inequities of that fixture list such that I have a virtual shoe box full of tickets tucked under the bed. It was time to make the case here.
20 points Notts to win County Championship division two 9/4 Ladbrokes 2/1 generally
Out of their league
As we all expected a few weeks ago Leicester City are the last remaining Premier League team in the Champions League headed to the quarter-final stages. Undoubtedly helped by a “Europa League quality” group, which they won despite poor domestic form, their tie with Sevilla turned on a tactical change at half time ( return of the high press ) in the first leg in what was to be Ranieri’s last match.
The recent history of English clubs in the Champions league is well known. The Premier League’s decline in Europe can be seen when looking at lists of Champions league quarter-finalists over the past five years. Spain has had 15 teams in the last eight over that time, Germany nine, France six and England only four. At least England is unlikely to be overtaken in the coefficient ranking by Italy or France as a UEFA rule change guarantees four qualification places to each of the four biggest leagues from 2018 and England is presently third. Just as well really.
For this season at least, perhaps English results are a consequence of the unusual Premier League last season with several big clubs not making the top four. Manchester United and Chelsea are the two most successful and experienced Champions League clubs in the Premier League and they both missed out. Instead this season the Tottenham and Manchester City managers both blamed inexperience for early exits, Tottenham’s before Christmas. Arsenal do not lack champions league experience (but possibly in what may be the last throes of Wenger’s reign, lacked organisation and motivation), and being drawn against Bayern Munich or Barcelona year in year out does not help. This season’s 10-2 aggregate loss in the last sixteen might point to the gap in quality growing though.
Part of the difference in results across the major leagues can be explained by the constitution of the leagues and the distribution of domestic TV money. Bayern Munich for example are usually champions and missing out on the Champions League altogether is highly unlikely given the way German football is structured. A few other leagues are the same, it would be almost unheard of given the relative financial resources in La Liga for Real or Barcelona to miss out on the top four. In England there is a top six fighting for four Champions League spots with occasional interlopers and perhaps the prospect of an Everton, say, joining the party in the near future.
While the idea that English performances in Europe are suffering because the Premier League is becoming more demanding may be an oversimplification, some would point out that not having a winter break doesn’t help. Only last week Mourinho, within the context of his side’s run at the Europa league (which may be their route back into the Champions League) stated that the Premier League “doesn’t care” about English teams in Europe and looking at the upcoming fixture scheduling (Leicester have six matches in 18 days after the International break) he has a point.
Over and above all these issues though, a couple of factors are at play. With a few exceptions we could argue about (Hazard, Aguero, Kante, De Gea perhaps) the Premier League still doesn’t attract the really world class players from the top European leagues unless towards the end of their careers and this does not enable them to take on the best sides with confidence, no matter the riches festooned on the teams by the new TV deal.
Secondly the standard of defending by some of the English teams in this season’s Champions League has been left wanting with Arsenal and Manchester City conceding 16 goals combined in the round of 16. Overall this was the highest-scoring round of 16 the Champions League has ever seen, with an average of 3.88 goals per game.
Outliers aside, not only does the Premier League not set up to help its teams in Europe but the open tactics of some of the English teams in the competition this year have shown the differences between the Premier League style and what it takes in this modern era to be successful in Europe.
Brodders Football Analysis
Sign up to Brodders match analysis and recommended bets here for £50 a month. You are free to cancel at any time.
If you had bet £10 a point on all Brodders' 2017 selections (average bet 15 points) you would be winning £5,770. Jan ROI+29.51% Feb ROI+8.34% Mar ROI+15.04%
Long term profit over 3+ years. Following all bets subscribers are winning £26,763.40 (£10 a point, average bet £150) +ROI 6.08% (correct at 22/03/17)
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Euro & other Football by Brodders (monthly) |
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Bookmaker reviews and advice
Getting the best price available is very important for all those who take their betting seriously.
Please open an account with all those bookmakers on the page on this link that you do not already have an account with using the links provided.
Betting Emporium results
The detailed results page has been updated as have the spreadsheets with the detailed bets. They can be found by clicking RESULTS
If you bet £10 per point on every recommended bet since launch you would be winning + £40,345.60 All bets have an ROI +4.82%.
A £4000 bank (see FAQ re bank-roll requirements) betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth £44,345.60 an 1009% increase
(correct at 22/03/17)
The Road to Riches: Weekend of 18th-19th March
Coming Up this weekend
- Football, Premier League games include Manchester City v Liverpool.
- Racing, Jumps meetings at Fontwell, Kempton, Newcastle and Uttoxeter and Wolverhampton on the All weather.
- Rugby Union, the final weekend of the 2017 Six Nations beginning with Scotland v Italy then Wales v France and then England going for back to back grand slams, against Ireland in Dublin
- Tennis ATP & WTA BNP Paribas Indian Wells Opens in California
- Golf, On the USPGA Tour the Arnold Palmer Invitational at Bay Hill
- Cricket, the third test between India and Australia in Ranchi continues.
Premier League Darts by Nigel Seeley
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Premier League Darts (Thu 2nd Feb - Thu May 18th 2017) |
The package includes the outright analysis and bets and weekly write ups all the way through to Finals Night
Nigel is a long term winner on the darts. If you had bet £10 a point on all his darts packages since 2014 you would be winning £1729.10 with a ROI +5.81%
Free Tip
Ireland v England Six Nations 5pm Saturday ITV
Ireland lost in Cardiff in what was a surprisingly poor performance. Notwithstanding disruptions suffered during the game to their key players Conor Murray and Johnny Sexton it was most disappointing that the team did very little with the ball in hand, though part of the credit has to go to Wales defensively.
England stepped up several gears in putting 60 points on Scotland to secure another Championship. I had thought they would win more comfortably than the consensus suggested but of course a 40 point winning margin was way above any expectations.
It will be a different type of game entirely in Dublin with a likely arm-wrestle up front and Ireland capable of playing a territorial game to put pressure on England and restrict them from being able to play in the parts of the field where they were so dangerous against Scotland, with quick ball causing havoc to a re-organised defensive line. Importantly Ireland have looked to revamp their line out, which mis-fired badly in Cardiff and saw them squandering a number of attacking positions with the introduction of Henderson for Toner.
England of course will be highly motivated, not only going for a second successive grand slam but also the 19 game world record for successive international wins. At the start of the championship I thought this was a game that Ireland could win, they were priced as marginal under-dogs at 5/4 and now, four matches into the championship they went 6/4 and drifted to 7/4 on team news yesterday and are now 4 point underdogs on the handicap. During England’s 18 game winning run they have played 7 away games, six of them against top 10 ranked opponents and won those seven games by an average score of 30-19.
Ireland of course, much like Wales last weekend after their poor result the weekend before, have a lot to prove in this game and are likely to be much better than they were in Cardiff though the loss of the world class Conor Murray through injury is a big miss and reduces their chances. As coach Joe Schmidt said the team announcement “we’ll miss his class, his 50 caps and his calm and experience” at what is a really pivotal position.
Eddie Jones recognises it will be tough
“We are anticipating Ireland to be at their best, particularly because they’ve got nothing to fear, which always liberates a team. But we are a different team, we’ve showed that, and we are ready to take it to another level on Saturday.”
On form and looking at the type of game this is likely to be England by 1-12 points at 6/4 plus in the winning margin market looks a decent bet.
10 points England to win by 1-12 points at 13/8 with Sportingbet, 6/4 Skybet, Betfair Sportsbook
Clip Klopp
It's been an inconsistent couple of months for Liverpool, fourth in the Premier League and a point off second with wins over Tottenham and Arsenal yet experiencing defeats against Hull, Leicester and Swansea. They also lost to lower league opposition in the FA Cup and Southampton in the semi final of the league Cup.
Everybody at Anfield is probably sick and tired of the constant accusation that they can only perform against the better sides and are too often found wanting against teams in the bottom half. So far this season this is correct though, Liverpool are top of the top six mini table yet this calendar year alone have dropped eleven points to teams in the bottom half of the table.
The reasons for this go relate to the style of football played by Liverpool and their opponents. Against Arsenal a fortnight ago Liverpool were in their comfort zone of high-pressing, counter-attacking, up-tempo football. Against Burnley a week later Liverpool had territory and possession against a team that “sits in” and the team looked altogether less confident for long spells of a match they eventually won. As Klopp said afterwards this was the first “ugly game” they had won all season.
Liverpool's players look so much more comfortable when faced with an opponent that wants to go toe to toe with them. Liverpool's players don't fear teams like Arsenal or Manchester City, they relish facing them because it allows them to play to their own strengths. Players such as Roberto Firmino, Philippe Coutinho, Adam Lallana, Georginio Wijnaldum and others have looked like world beaters in open games when they can play on the front foot, but they have disappeared too often in the less glamorous games when the opponent has looked to stifle them.
Part of this comes from the sidelines. Klopp’s teams have a defined way of playing with a set Plan A but often Plan B is more of Plan A. Part of this comes from other factors which show that 18 months after the manager’s appointment Liverpool are still a work in progress despite four transfer windows since his arrival.
This is seen in several areas:
- Lack of quality in the back five. Against Burnley the sight of Klavan and Matip getting roughed up by Gray and Barnes was concerning, and still there are issues at goalkeeper
- Lack of leadership across the pitch. Jordan Henderson still has his doubters his leadership skills, but when he's not playing Liverpool are a much poorer team for it. He might not be the most inspirational captain in club history, but take him out and there's virtually no leadership in there at all
- Weak squad depth, which against Burnley saw the only reserve striking option the 17 year old Ben Woodburn, that sees the nevertheless versatile James Milner consistently filling in at left back and has seen Lucas pressed into service at centre back less than convincingly
Liverpool's next games are Manchester City (a) this weekend followed by Everton (h), Bournemouth (h) and Stoke City (a). On recent form and given relative styles of play there's a good chance they'll collect more points from the games with City and Everton than they will from the other two. A win this weekend is of course important and would unquestionably be satisfying for supporters, but victories against Bournemouth and Stoke would be far more significant in the long run.
This difference in form depending on the style of opponent is going to be important for the last two months of the season. On paper the run in looks kind. The final games of the season are against Stoke, West Brom, Palace, Watford, Southampton, West Ham and Middlesbrough. Not a top six team in sight, but at least five of these opponents will sit in,and it is here where the struggles for Liverpool have come.
Getting that top four place and a shot at the Champions League again is important for the summer recruitment needed to address deficiencies in defence and leadership and enable Klopp’s team to genuinely challenge next year winning the ugly games that have been their Achilles heel this season.
Brodders Football Analysis
Sign up to Brodders match analysis and recommended bets here for £50 a month. You are free to cancel at any time.
If you had bet £10 a point on all Brodders' 2017 selections (average bet 15 points) you would be winning £5,770. Jan ROI+29.51% Feb ROI+8.34% Mar ROI+15.04%
Long term profit over 3 years. Following all bets subscribers are winning £23,607.10 (£10 a point, average bet £150) +ROI 5.53% (correct at 02/03/17)
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Euro & other Football by Brodders (monthly) |
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Bookmaker reviews and advice
Getting the best price available is very important for all those who take their betting seriously.
Please open an account with all those bookmakers on the page on this link that you do not already have an account with using the links provided.
Betting Emporium results
The detailed results page has been updated as have the spreadsheets with the detailed bets. They can be found by clicking RESULTS
If you had bet £10 per point on every recommended bet since our launch in Feb 2013 you would be winning + £38,179.90 (2nd March 2017)
All bets have an ROI +4.72% and Horse Racing has an ROI +6.25%
A £4000 bank (see FAQ re bank-roll requirements) betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth £42,179.90 a 954% increase
The Road to Riches: Weekend of 12th-13th March
Coming Up this weekend
- Football, The FA Cup fifth round, four Premier League games and Football League fixtures.
- Racing, Jumps meetings at Ayr, Hereford and Sandown including the Imperial Cup. All weather meetings at Chelmsford City and Wolverhampton.
- Rugby Union, the fourth weekend of the 2017 Six Nations beginning with Wales v Ireland on Friday night, then France v Italy followed by England v Scotland on Saturday.
- Tennis ATP & WTA BNP Paribas Indian Wells Opens in California
- Golf, on the PGA European Tour the Hero Indian Open. On the USPGA Tour the Valspar Championship at Innisbrook
Cheltenham Festival Tues 14th - Fri 17th March 2017 (Four Day Package)
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Cheltenham Festival Tues 14th - Fri 17th March 2017 (Package) |
The full package includes all of Neil's race analysis for the four days and details of all the bets that we will be having plus any ante-post write ups that he does.
Get ready for the 2017 Festival by making sure you have all your bookmaker accounts set up. Bookmaker special offers here
Premier League Darts by Nigel Seeley
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Premier League Darts (Thu 2nd Feb - Thu May 18th 2017) |
The package includes the outright analysis and bets and weekly write ups all the way through to Finals Night
Nigel is a long term winner on the darts. If you had bet £10 a point on all his darts packages since 2014 you would be winning £1729.10 with a ROI +5.81%
Free Tip
Six Nations: England v Scotland Saturday 4pm
England have played poorly at times in all of their three games so far this Championship yet have won all three to take their record to 17 wins in a row under Eddie Jones. Ominously for their remaining opponents Scotland and Ireland they are getting back to full strength too, with the Vunipola brothers now back in the squad.
Scotland have played excellently all Championship, have won both their home games and lost by six points in Paris. A win at Twickenham on Saturday gives them an unexpected Triple Crown.
Scotland have a disciplined and accurate set of forwards and a back line with more creativity and flair than they have had for a long time. Some lack of power in the forwards (without so far a huge penalty count against them when under pressure) is compensated for with dogged defence and huge work-rate and when they secure good possession watch out, the backs can put up points.
It is claimed that teams have been raising their game to play England who have been inconsistently and sloppy in their games. Whether that is true or not, England need to step up and not give away unnecessary penalties, make unforced handling errors and turn over the ball.
England have been second best in the back-row scrap in all three games so far and because of this have suffered at the breakdown. In essence playing a (nonetheless brilliant ) second row Maro Itoje at blind-side and blind-side James Haskell at open-side alongside a back up number 8 in Nathan Hughes they have been outplayed. For Scotland the genuine scavenging open-side Hamish Watson changed the game against Wales and dominated the feted Warburton and Tipuric at the contact area, denying Wales quality possession.
I expect here England will opt for power, against which Scotland struggled at times in Paris, running at Finn Russell at fly half and making him tackle and trying to tie in the Scottish back row. They’ll hope to offload as the French did, work field position and keep the scoreboard ticking over and put the game away with their strong bench when Scotland are tackled out late in the game.
I think England will win and the game might not be as close as many pundits suggest.
In every match England have finished far stronger than the opposition, which suggests both a powerful bench and excellent conditioning. Since the start of 2016 England's average score in the first half is 14-10. In the second half it is a more convincing 18-8. If England finally manage to avoid the sloppy starts that have characterised their Championship then a double digit win is a decent probability
England are 1/5 outright, Scotland 4/1 and England -11 on the handicap. I prefer England to win by 11-20 (12/5) than 1-12 (7/4) in the winning margin markets with Betfair Sportsbook.
If I was playing points spreads England -5 on the second half handicap at 10/11 would be where I was looking.
10 points England to win by 11-20 points 13/5 Coral (5/2 Betfair Sportsbook and Paddy Power)
Normal Service Resumed
Last season, I amongst others wrote articles pronouncing that the “Premier League had changed forever” and that Leicester City’s title was but a symptom of a league with more depth and that the “top six” dominance might be a thing of the past. This season it is "back to normal" when looking at a table that reads: Chelsea, Tottenham Hotspur, Manchester City, Liverpool, Arsenal and Manchester United and the sixth place side five points head of seventh and nine points ahead of eighth.
The notion that there was a substantial change in the Premier League taking place began in August 2015 when Mourinho spoke at the season launch and said.
“Every club has very good players so I think it’s difficult for the top teams in England because of the competitive nature” He continued “It’s also difficult because the other clubs now have players who could play in our teams”
Through the season the theme was repeated by managers and pundits with various reasons put forward as to a seemingly more competitive league. Primary amongst these was that the new TV deal had created a more level playing field, giving every club the resources to attract players from European leagues whilst the English top six couldn’t buy the real superstars to allow them to maintain a difference in squad quality.
Move on a year though and the top six are away and clear again. There is no sense that they can be caught and with the odd exception (Liverpool at lower ranked clubs for example) there are few surprise results.
After Monday’s match with West Ham Chelsea are 22 points ahead of seventh-placed Everton. Last season after 27 games seventh-placed Southampton were 16 points off the top and a sign of the difference is that Chelsea have 66 points this season 10 ahead of the total gained by Leicester who were top this time last year.
Sixteen points separate Manchester United in sixth from West Ham in 11th. At the same 27-game mark last season just seven points was the difference between sixth and 11th.
To put into context just how dominant the top six have been this season, they have accumulatively accrued 328 points. That's some 33 points up on last term. It betters the top-six points at this stage of the 2014/15 season by 25 points, 2013/14 by 11 points and 2012/13 by 26 points.
So what happened to lead to this substantial re-assertion within the league? Firstly the ‘big six’ did the obvious and spent a lot of money. The biggest spenders last summer were in order: City then United followed by Chelsea, Arsenal, Tottenham Hotspur and Liverpool who combined to spend around £680 million. The rest of the league spent £510 million between them.
That £680m might have included Pogba and a 35 year old Ibrahimovic but didn’t include Messi, Neymar and the real difference makers in the current world game. The top six clubs did though attract several new top class managers and in came Antonio Conte and Pep Guardiola and with Mourinho , Klopp, Pochettino and Wenger rounding out the top six club managers (and interestingly,at various points at least three of these names have been under pressure this season) the talent in the ug-out compares favourably with the topof other major leagues.
It might be argued that Leicester City was a wake up call that has rendered all our previous justifications for the end of the dominance of the top six moot. That every time a club like that temporarily challenges the top 4 that is one less space in the Champions league to go round, for example and the response, in on and off field spending was quick and has rendered last season a one season phenomenon. The league has realigned again and competitive balance is weaker.
The fact that six teams are going for the top four is a positive but from that competitive balance viewpoint that there are others below them falling away is disappointing. Although they have collectively spent far less than the top six, there is significant money available and they need to respond to close that gap.
For now though, how the top six fare against one another in the second half of the season will go a long way to deciding the top four places ahead no doubt of another short term cycle of change next summer as clubs respond to the consequences of this season.
Brodders Football Analysis
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If you had bet £10 a point on all Brodders' 2017 selections (average bet 15 points) you would be winning £5,770. Jan ROI+29.51% Feb ROI+8.34% Mar ROI+15.04%
Long term profit over 3 years. Following all bets subscribers are winning £23,607.10 (£10 a point, average bet £150) +ROI 5.53% (correct at 02/03/17)
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Euro & other Football by Brodders (monthly) |
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Bookmaker reviews and advice
Getting the best price available is very important for all those who take their betting seriously.
Please open an account with all those bookmakers on the page on this link that you do not already have an account with using the links provided.
Betting Emporium results
The detailed results page has been updated as have the spreadsheets with the detailed bets. They can be found by clicking RESULTS
If you had bet £10 per point on every recommended bet since our launch in Feb 2013 you would be winning + £38,179.90 (2nd March 2017)
All bets have an ROI +4.72% and Horse Racing has an ROI +6.25%
A £4000 bank (see FAQ re bank-roll requirements) betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth £42,179.90 a 954% increase
The Road To Riches: Weekend of 4th-5th March
Coming Up this weekend
- Football, Premier League and Football League fixtures including Liverpool v Arsenal.
- Racing, Jumps meetings at Doncaster, Kelso and Newbury. All weather meetings at Lingfield and Newcastle.
- Tennis, ATP Opens in Acapulco and Sao Paulo
- Golf, the World Golf Championships, WGC- Mexico and on the European Tour the Tshwane Open in Pretoria.
- Cricket, the second ODI between the West Indies and England in Antigua on Sunday and the second Test Match between India and Australia in Bangalore starting Saturday.
- Rugby Union, the second week of the Super 18 2017 season
Cheltenham Festival Tues 14th - Fri 17th March 2017 (Four Day Package)
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Cheltenham Festival Tues 14th - Fri 17th March 2017 (Package) |
The full package includes all of Neil's race analysis for the four days and details of all the bets that we will be having plus any ante-post write ups that he does.
Cheltenham 2017 Dinner Preview Night and Package Details
We are pleased to announce details of our very popular Cheltenham Preview Dinner for 2017.
It is on Saturday March 11th and full details are here
Premier League Darts by Nigel Seeley
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Premier League Darts (Thu 2nd Feb - Thu May 18th 2017) |
The package includes the outright analysis and bets and weekly write ups all the way through to Finals Night
Nigel is a long term winner on the darts. If you had bet £10 a point on all his darts packages since 2014 you would be winning £1729.10 with a ROI +5.81%
Free Tip
Super 18 Rugby: Highlanders v Crusaders Saturday 6.35am GMT
The 2017 Super 18 Rugby season started last weekend and last season’s semi-finalists the Highlanders started their season with a home local derby, beaten 25-15 by the Chiefs. They trailed 14-9 at the break, gifting the Chiefs a couple of tries in the first half and they went on to lose the try count 3-0. It was a game where these mistakes completely undid the rest of the Highlanders performance as they dominated territory and possession. The Highlanders were 3.5 point favourites to win last week and they had won all three of their home derby matches in 2016 by margins of 1 to 10 points.
The Highlanders are a team that doesn’t have the household names of other New Zealand teams but now that their whole squad has had exposure to the finals campaign of Super Rugby I think they might have the personnel to push for a second championship in three years notwithstanding their opening week loss.
The Crusaders made a winning start although they had to work hard to see off the Brumbies 17-13 in Christchurch, scoring three tries to one. The Crusaders had been supported in the Round 1 betting market with the handicap shifting out from 10.5 points towards the mid teens by kick off and they led 12-3 at the break before “losing” the second half. In 2016 the Crusaders lost a cracking contest to the Highlanders (34-26) at this venue. Fly half Richie Mo’unga was injured last week and could be out of action for up to 10 weeks.
That injury is important because the Crusaders were already fielding the least experienced half-back combination in the New Zealand conference and whilst 1 through 15 they are a dangerous side they lack some squad depth.
The Highlanders are 4/6 favourites to bounce back here, the Crusaders 11/8 and 3 point underdogs. I expect the Highlanders to win and the over 2/1 available with Ladbrokes on a 1-12 point winning margin is my idea of the bet to have.
10 points Highlanders to win by 1-12 points 11/5 Ladbrokes (7/4 Betfair Sportsbook)
The New Manager effect, real or imagined?
Within the context of the current Premier League season after the sacking of Claudio Ranieri last week four of the current bottom six teams have changed managers. No great surprise there, the pressures to stay in the division with associated financial rewards are always an inducement to change for the boards of struggling clubs. For the three clubs where we have some results under the new manager to go on, results have been mixed:
* Swansea under Paul Clement have seen the biggest improvement (having had no positive impact from their change two months earlier to Bob Bradley) with 12 points gained from 21 possible
* Hull under Marco Silva have won 8 points and whilst they remain in the bottom three now appear to have some hope whereas little previously existed
* Perhaps surprisingly given his reputation Crystal Palace have struggled under Sam Allardyce ( who previously kept Sunderland up despite losing 7 of his first 10 games in charge). Until their win last weekend, they had secured only four points from his eight games in charge.
For Leicester, it remains to be seen whether their controversial move will make any difference beyond the win under the caretaker manager on Monday when everyone except their opponents knew they would be fired up.
Outside the Premier League this season, we’ve seen Birmingham City’s surprising move to replace Rowett with Zola be met with a resounding raspberry by the playing staff. Last season as soon as the by then unpopular Mourinho left Chelsea the players immediately picked up downed tools and results improved under Hiddink and on into this season. As much as anything we need to look at playing staffs and their prior and current motivation (or lack of it) as an indicator of whether a quick turn around is likely or not.
We all know about the supposed “new manager effect” to describe the recurring event in which football punters convince themselves that a struggling team’s form will improve because they have changed manager. The mixed results from such changes this season highlight how difficult it is to extrapolate from a series of individual situations and establish that the “new manager effect” is a sustainable theory of just a casual explanation for changes in short term variance and mean reversion.
Over the past two decades a series of academics have conducted studies into new managers and, by and large, the results of these investigations have poured cold water on the idea that one should back sides with a fresh face in charge.
Some of these are as follows:
In 2010, Sue Bridgewater wrote the book “Football Management” and looked at the first six games for new Premier League managers during the period 1992 to 2008 and found some improvements overall. Yet by games 12 to 18 she also found that the points benefit of changing the manager had largely vanished, suggesting that there is only a short-lived gain.
Analysing managerial turnover across 18 seasons up to 2004 in the Dutch Eredivisie, Ter Weel revealed patterns of decline and improvement around the replacement of one manager with another. However almost the same pattern could be observed where managers had not been sacked
A German student conducted a 35-year study of the results in her country’s top domestic football competition. Alexandra Tippenhauer’s father had been sacked from Bielefeld in 1980 and she found that Bundesliga sides which sacked a boss did no better in their next 12 matches than they have done in their previous dozen games.
In Italy De Paola and Scoppa, looked at Serie A seasons 2004 to 2008 and concluded that there was no evidence that managerial change produced any significant improvement in team performance within the same season.
In essence all these studies conclude that what we see under whichever manager is patterns of mean reversion which can be both positive (Chelsea last year to this) and negative (Leicester last year to this) and in some cases extremely so.
Top-level football managers get paid a lot of moneys precisely because of this variance and associated lack of job security and the practical impossibility of replacing a contracted team makes managerial positions often even more precarious in the modern era.
Returning to a subject close to my heart various analyses suggest that Leicester City are around the 13th best team in the 2016-17 Premier League (shots taken, chances created etc). If Leicester were 13th, no change would have been made whether the players liked it or not. If, a big if, short term results improve under a new manager the “new manager effect” will be credited but in reality it will just be the ebb and flow of regression at work.
More particularly when betting look at the individual situations and look at reasons for sacking and then look at the likely motivations of the players. It is within these squads that you will often find the answers, not the abilities or otherwise of a new manager in the short term.
Brodders Football Analysis
Last year Brodders followers betting just £10 a point won £15,780 with a ROI + 11.09%. Sign up to Brodders match analysis and recommended bets here for £50 a month. You are free to cancel at any time.
Long term profit over 3 years. Following all bets subscribers are winning £23,607.10 (£10 a point, average bet £150) +ROI 5.53% (correct at 02/03/17)
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Euro & other Football by Brodders (monthly) |
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|
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Bookmaker reviews and advice
Getting the best price available is very important for all those who take their betting seriously.
Please open an account with all those bookmakers on the page on this link that you do not already have an account with using the links provided.
Betting Emporium results
The detailed results page has been updated as have the spreadsheets with the detailed bets. They can be found by clicking RESULTS
If you had bet £10 per point on every recommended bet since our launch in Feb 2013 you would be winning + £38,179.90 (2nd March 2017)
All bets have an ROI +4.72% and Horse Racing has an ROI +6.25%
A £4000 bank (see FAQ re bank-roll requirements) betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth £42,179.90 a 954% increase
