Weekly Articles "Road to Riches" by Rich 'Tighty' Prew
The Road to Riches: Weekend of 17th-18th December
Coming Up this weekend
- Football. The Premier League programme includes Manchester City v Arsenal
- NFL Week Fifteen of the NFL regular season includes the New England Patriots at the Denver Broncos.
- Racing includes jumps meetings at Ascot, Haydock and Newcastle and on the all-weather Lingfield.
- Cricket, the fifth test between India and England in Chennai continues.
- Rugby Union, the fourth round of pool matches in the European Champions Cup.
PDC World Darts Championship (15th Dec to 2nd Jan) by Nigel Seeley
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PDC World Darts Championship 2016 |
The full package is £50. An outright preview was published earlier this week and there are ongoing daily updates with all of Nigel's match analysis giving details of all the bets that we are having.
Nigel is an excellent long term winner on the darts with an ROI +5.4%. If you had bet £10 a point on all darts bets on this website since we launched 3 years ago you would be winning £1466.90
Free Tip
European Champions Cup Rugby Pool Match Connacht v Wasps (Saturday 5.30pm)
Connacht were right in the first game these teams played last weekend at 17-20 after an hour, missed a kick to draw level and Wasps, helped by a strong bench, pulled away in the last quarter to record a bonus point win and top the group. It could be a different story in Galway this weekend, a very tough place for visiting teams to play in December weather. The Galway Sportsgrounds are open and facilities are rudimentary and the supporters are raucous and passionate. Connacht had a big advantage at scrum-time in the first match and will be looking to exert pressure on Wasps and keep their dangerous back line on the back foot. Wasps are brilliant with ball in hand but that wasn't easy for long stretches last week with the pack going backwards.
Obviously this is a quick turnaround to tomorrow's game and Wasps have been priced up as 1/2 favourites, Connacht 2/1 in a place and 15/8 underdogs generally at home. Connacht +5 at 10/11 is tempting. I think at a minimum it will be very close and am going to recommend Connacht at 2/1. Wasps have Toulouse at home and Zebre away to come, bonus point wins in those games should win them the pool. A bonus point loss here (lose by less than seven points) wouldn't be the end of the world, whereas Connacht are going to be all guns blazing at home to win it. In his press conference this week Connacht coach Pat Lam said "Without a doubt this game is massively important in the context of our European ambitions."
The Wasps coach Dai Young meanwhile was alluding to the challange and tempering expectations a touch
"We are well aware of the huge challenge ahead of us, against a quality side, at a very difficult place to play. Connacht Rugby have a really passionate set of supporters and we are expecting it to be a fantastic atmosphere, as it always is at the Sportsground. We also expect the weather conditions to be as testing as they normally are in December, so we will need to be efficient with possession and any opportunities that come our way.
“We were really pleased to pick up five points last weekend and I’m sure Connacht were disappointed not to come away with anything. However, I imagine they left confident that they will be able to get something out of this Saturday’s game, having caused us plenty of problems last week. We can’t give them as much ball as we did at the Ricoh Arena. We’ll need to secure more possession and cause them more problems ball in hand than we did then. We know we’ll need to be better than we were last week if we’re to get a result”
10 points Connacht to beat Wasps 2/1 Coral, 15/8 generally
** next week, King George free tips for Boxing Day from Neil**
Goals! (part 2)
Last Saturday set a Premier League record with 29 goals on a match day with six games or fewer. Every home team scored three or more, two games had five goals and two games had six goals. Over the ten matches across the weekend, 36 goals were scored.
Pundits have had a field day. In national newspaper columns this week Ian Wright has called the standard of Premier League defending “appalling and laughable” while Stan Collymore has lamented that “proper defenders” are a “dying breed”.
As of last Sunday from 146 matches played so far this season, 427 goals have been scored, an average of 2.9 goals per match (up to 2009 2.5-2.6 goals per game was the norm across a season). If the present ratio were maintained, the 2016/17 season would finish with 1,111 goals, almost 50 more than the 1,066 in the previous highest-scoring season, in 2011/12.
The number of goals scored in each Premier League game has risen 8% since 2001-02. It’s not a solely English league phenomenon either. Champions League games have seen 16% more goals per game since 2006-07 One of the reasons goals-per-game has gone up in the Champions League is that the gulf in quality between the best and the worst sides has increased and so there are more one sided games, a process exacerbated by the introduction of the Champions Path to qualification in 2009 and more mismatches in the group stages. In this season's group stage there were a record 14 games in which a side has won by four or more goals.
A few weeks ago I postulated that a combination of pressing tactics, the changing financial landscape giving a broader spread of talent across the league (so more teams go for it, fewer set out to shut up shop) and the standard of defending were all part of the trend towards higher goals per game.
Looking at defending specifically the past two weekends have seen the issues writ large. Manchester City have kept two clean sheets all season and prior to the midweek game this week had conceded seven goals in two games and seem to be employing the little used “false number one” tactic. Liverpool have kept three clean sheets all season and allowed Bournemouth to score four a fortnight ago with only limited attempts to “sit” on a lead and see a game out.
Changes to the offside law in 2009 have contributed to a more open and progressive game but over and above that defenders and goalkeepers are no longer selected just for their ability to stop opposing attackers but also for their passing ability (here’s looking at you, John Stones) and that seems to have led to a drop-off in the basic skills of defending.
Defenders lacking technical ability can be exposed by an opponent playing the high press that is in fashion across European football. This is not a problem that can be rectified by a return to a more old-fashioned style of defensive defender as they will not be selected in some teams unless they are also good on the ball.
The result is exciting game after exciting game. Great for the neutral but frustrating for those who celebrate the art of defending
Brodders Football Analysis
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Euro & other Football by Brodders (monthly) |
- The Euros 2016 for subscribers. Results: +£4,098.30 (betting £10 a point, average bet about £150) +ROI 31.43%
- Long term profit over 3 years. Following all bets subscribers are winning £20,216 (£10 a point, average bet £150) +ROI 5.71%
Bookmaker reviews and advice
Getting the best price available is very important for all those who take their betting seriously.
Please open an account with all those bookmakers on the page on this link that you do not already have an account with using the links provided.
Betting Emporium results
The detailed results page has been updated as have the spreadsheets with the detailed bets. They can be found by clicking RESULTS
£10 per point on every recommended bet since launch in Feb 2013 would be winning £34,185 (as at 26th October 2016)
All bets have an ROI +4.75% and Horse Racing has a ROI of +6.84%
A £4000 bank (see FAQ re bank-roll requirements) betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth £38, 185 an 855% increase
The Road To Riches: Weekend of 10th-11th December
Coming Up this weekend
- Football. The Premier League programme includes Manchester United v Tottenham Hotspur.
- NFL Week Fourteen of the NFL regular season includes the Dallas Cowboys at the New York Giants on Monday Night football.
- Racing includes jumps meetings at Cheltenham, Doncaster and Lingfield and on the all-weather at Newcastle and Wolverhampton.
- Golf, on the European tour the UBS Hong Kong Open and on the USPGA the Franklin Templeton Shootout.
- Cricket, the fourth test between India and England in Mumbai continues.
- Rugby Union, the latest round of pool matches in the European Champions Cup.
PDC World Darts Championship (15th Dec to 2nd Jan) by Nigel Seeley
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PDC World Darts Championship 2016 |
The full package is £50 and includes the outrights, all Nigel's match analysis and details of all the bets that we have.
Nigel is an excellent long term winner on the darts with an ROI +5.4%. If you had bet £10 a point on all darts bets on this website since we launched 3 years ago you would be winning £1466.90
Free Tip
European Rugby Champions Cup Rugby Wasps v Connacht Sunday 1pm (Sky Sports 2)
This is a key game in Pool 2. Connacht won the Pro 12 last year, a rare achievement for the smallest of the Irish rugby provinces thay was long viewed by the IRFU as a feeder side to the likes of Leinster and Munster and almost folded just over a decade ago. Irish Provinces are currently limited to four non-Irish eligible (NIE) players and one non-Irish qualified player ("Project Player"). Connacht Rugby is exempted from this under a separate development arrangement and that has helped accelerate their improvement greatly. They have played two won two so far in this season’s ERCC (a narrow home win against Toulouse, a big win in Italy against Zebre). This is their toughest test against the pool favourites, last season’s semi-finalists, who put 82 points on Zebre at home in the first game then scored a last gasp try to get a draw at Toulouse in late October.
Wasps need to win, preferably denying the visitors a losing bonus point ahead of the reverse fixture in Galway next week that is likely to decide the pool. Domestic form doesn’t point to anything other than a home win. Connacht are not the force of last year, lying 8th (of 12) in the Pro 12 league while Wasps are second only to Saracens in the Aviva Premiership despite a season blighted by injury.
Wasps are an exciting team to watch. High scoring potential with renowned attacking ability and in their favour the weather forecast is ok for Sunday. Their plan will be to win the key battles up front and exploit spaces later in the game. In the two games against Connacht bonus points are going to be crucial. In the ERCC sides earn 1 try bonus point for scoring four or more tries, and 1 losing bonus point for being defeated by seven points or fewer. Here Wasps will have their eye on the former, Connacht the latter as every point is going to count with the possibility of only one team from the pool going through to the last eight.
Wasps sit second in the Aviva despite missing big name players for chunks of the current season. Elliott Daly is currently banned after being sent off for England whilst all of Joe Launchbury, Danny Cipriani, Jimmy Gopperth, Kyle Eastmond and Christian Wade have been absent too. They are getting heathlier though. Fly-half Gopperth (a nerveless goal-kicker) and wing Christian Wade play this game while Launchbury is back from suspension. The talented Australian back Kurtley beale was a marquee signing in the summer then suffered a knee injury a day later. He has been in full training for a fortnight and is selected at inside centre for Sunday.
Betting markets for the game tell us that Wasps should win. Wasps are 15 point favourites on the handicap and prohibitively priced on the outright. They key point here is, as the probably better side but sitting second in the pool and going to Ireland next week where the realistic target will be a win and no more ( try bonus points being far less likely ) they have to keep their foot on the gas and go for four tries plus and a win by more than 7 points to stop Connacht earning a bonus point of their own.
Connacht are a combative, their backs (notably star player Bundee Aki a New Zealander in the centre) can create plenty and they are competitive up front but man for man Wasps are the superior side. Unlike last week, hoping for no careless interception tries late on to sink a winning margin bet...
10 points Wasps to win by 11-20 points 9/4 Coral
Bonus Time
Six Nations organisers will test a system that rewards try-scoring and narrow defeats in an effort to promote attacking rugby in the 2017 Championship starting in February. Bonus points systems are commonplace in major rugby competitions for example The Rugby Championship and European Rugby Champuions Cup but until now the Six Nations has resisted them
Here's how the 2017 Six Nations will work:
Winning a match:
- Four points for any win
- An extra point if winning side score four tries or more
Losing a match:
- No points for a defeat
- But losing team can collect a bonus point for scoring four tries or more
- OR if they lose by a margin of seven points or less
Drawing a match:
- Two points each
- An extra point for each side that scores four tries or more
The Grand Slam:
A country than wins all five matches and achieves a Six Nations Grand Slam, will be awarded a further three match points. This prevents them winning the Grand Slam with no bonus points (20 points), but coming second to a team with four bonus-point wins and a bonus-point defeat (22 points).
The system will be reviewed afterwards to determine whether it should be adopted permanently. Most past winners would have remained the same with bonus points factored in, but England would have won the 2013 title rather than Wales.
There has long since been opposition to bonus points in the six nations as the six teams compete on a home or away basis, for each campaign half play three of their five matches at home with the other half playing three on the road. The stumbling block has always the same: the imbalance of home matches. The championship is not a league where teams play each other home and away in the same season. This has the potential to produce some inequities.
Depending on the fixture list in a given year, a team might be playing in the wet in Edinburgh, whilst another trots out on a sunny day and a true surface in Rome. The Six Nations is such a short sprint to the line that such variables can have a disproportionate distorting effect with one team, perhaps, racking up try bonus points in one venue and being handicapped in that pursuit in another.
The decision comes a year after the northern nations failed to provide a World Cup semi-finalist. The rise of Argentina since they began competing in the Rugby Championship was compared with Italy, who have made little progress in the 16 years playing in the Six Nations.
The average number of tries per match in last year’s Six Nations, a particularly stodgy renewal of the Championship, was 4.7 compared to 5.8 in the Rugby Championship. Whether bonus points are a panacea for conservative rugby remains to be seen though. The Championship is frequently played in bad weather and on heavy pitches and in terms of tactics defensive schemes have become much more robust across the major nations. At the lower end of the Six Nations there is also a paucity of flair and talent compared to the Southern hemisphere nations.
Still, the hope is that bonus points reward try-scoring and an attacking style of play that will deliver more tries and greater rewards for fans and players alike and still lead to the drama of the last weekend of the six nations where three games are played con currently and often the title winner is not know until the final whistle on that last afternoon
Brodders Football Analysis
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Euro & other Football by Brodders (monthly) |
- The Euros 2016 for subscribers. Results: +£4,098.30 (betting £10 a point, average bet about £150) +ROI 31.43%
- Long term profit over 3 years. Following all bets subscribers are winning £20,216 (£10 a point, average bet £150) +ROI 5.71%
Bookmaker reviews and advice
Getting the best price available is very important for all those who take their betting seriously.
Please open an account with all those bookmakers on the page on this link that you do not already have an account with using the links provided.
Betting Emporium results
The detailed results page has been updated as have the spreadsheets with the detailed bets. They can be found by clicking RESULTS
£10 per point on every recommended bet since launch in Feb 2013 would be winning £34,185 (as at 26th October 2016)
All bets have an ROI +4.75% and Horse Racing has a ROI of +6.84%
A £4000 bank (see FAQ re bank-roll requirements) betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth £38, 185 an 855% increase
The Road to Riches: Weekend of 3rd-4th December
Coming Up this weekend
- Football. The Premier League programme includes Manchester City v Chelsea. Also the second round of the FA Cup
- NFL Week Thirteen of the NFL regular season includes the Kansas City Chiefs at the Atlanta Falcons
- Racing includes jumps meetings at Aintree, Chepstow, Sandown and Wetherby plus on the all-weather at Wolverhampton.
- Golf, on the European tour the Australian PGA and the Alfred Dunhill Championship in South Africa. On the USPGA the Hero World Challenge in the Bahamas
-Rugby Union, the final Autumn International, England v Australia at Twickenham
PDC World Darts Championship (15th Dec to 2nd Jan) by Nigel Seeley
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PDC World Darts Championship 2016 |
The full package is £50 and includes the outrights, all Nigel's match analysis and details of all the bets that we have.
Nigel is an excellent long term winner on the darts with an ROI +5.4%. If you had bet £10 a point on all darts bets on this website since we launched 3 years ago you would be winning £1466.90
Free Tip
Autumn International England v Australia, Saturday 3rd November
England have won 13 tests in a row and go for a record equalling win against Australia this weekend, last achieved in Sir Cive Woodward's era 2002-3. So far this autumn series England have beaten South Africa, Fiji and Argentina. England were down to 14-men for 76 minutes and they played for 20 minutes with 13 men last weekend, beating Argentina 27-14
The autumn has shown that England, with the strongest domestic pool of players in the Northern Hemisphere, have real strength in depth having gone into the games with the likes of Itoje, Haskell, Nowell and Watson injured and that will be tested further this weekend as injury list continues to grow as another star name in Billy Vunipola has been ruled out for 3 months with a serious injury.
After winning the Grand Slam earlier in 2016 England beat Australia 3-0 on their summer tour. During the early part of their season, Australia were forced to try lots of new combinations and have given 13 new caps since the World Cup. Australia have improved since as the new squad has bedded down, but on their own tour this autumn lost in Ireland last weekend to end their hopes of a clean sweep of games.
Against Ireland, tough opponents and probably the nearest challenger England have in the Six Nations, Australia came back from 17-0 down to only lose narrowly 27-24. Once they settled into the game some of the tries they scored were wonderfully crafted but in terms of basic execution of skills up front and at the breakdown they were found wanting. In the game they conceded 19 penalties and 13 turnovers, compared to 6 and 3 respectively by Ireland.
In the summer tests England won the three matches by 11, 6 and 4 points and although Australia were off-key they still scored ten tries in the three games, a measure of how dangerous they can be when they have the ball. England won with poorer possession statistics than Australia. In particular, England won the third test with less than 35% of the ball, an incredible defensive effort.
The key to this game again will be in the back rows and the breakdown. England’s defence in Australia used Itoje to help counter the threat of Pocock and Hooper and the back row managed to slow down Australian ball and limit the opportunities for broken field play, from which Australia can shred any team. Compared to the summer though England have just Chris Robshaw left from the back row and they may see the new back row combination (Nathan Hughes, Wood and Robshaw) minus Haskell, Vunipola and turnover specialist Itoje in front of them in the second row as the place to start picking England apart.
To fully benefit Australia need parity up front and this will be tough against England who have a pack that at least matches any opponent in the world game and, if necessary, a kicking game that will win territory and attempt to get the visitors forced into playing rugby in the wrong areas of the field. Australia have made four changes from the Ireland game including the Bulky ball carrier Timani at number 8 to help them in that crucial battle to protect Phipps and Foley athalf back, who England targetted successfully in the summer.
It's going to be very close. I think England will win but perhaps not as comfortably as outright odds of England 1/3 Australia 3/1 suggest. Australia are +9 10/11 generally on the point spread which is a tempting bet with the back row battle looking different to that which decided games in the summer. A way of gaining some more value is to back England to win by 1-12 points at nearly 2-1. This is an underdog to England 13+ in the betting yet captures my central expectation that England win by a score plus, but not more.
10 points England to win by 1-12 points 15/8 Coral or 7/4 Skybet
Gogglebox
As mentioned a few weeks ago in this column the NFL has seen the Presidential election as the biggest reason why this season’s NFL ratings have fallen so drastically. This view gained some credence when on Thanksgiving last week the Dallas-Washington game achieved record viewers for a Fox regular season game with 35.1m watching. For the year, NFL ratings are still down in every time slot: Sunday afternoons, Sunday nights, Thursday nights and Monday nights but without the competing distractions of earlier in the season, 35.1m was a huge figure, the largest regular season figure for 21 years.
However later last weekend the NFL's issues were thrown into sharp relief when the Sunday night Chiefs-Broncos game, a big divisional rivalry featuring the superbowl champions, drew an audience 27% lower than the same slot int he same week last year (Patriots-Texans). That said overnight TV rating for last night's Dallas at Minnesota game on NBC+ NFL Network was 14.1m, second best ever for the slot. Perhaps we are finding out the effect of a relevant and successful Dallas Cowboys on the NFL's fortunes.
As a response to ratings trends earlier this season the NFL is focusing on the pace of play as a way to make the sport more TV friendly. In the NFL average game time has increased adding five minutes per game over the past two years. In 2015, games averaged 3:07 and through eight weeks of this season, that figure is up to 3:12. This is against a background of younger viewers watching less television. The idea is that shorter games will keep viewers watching longer. Even with the lower ratings this season, the league’s overall reach number is consistent with previous years. That means that the amount of time that people spend actually watching the games has dropped, which is what primarily is accounting for lower TV ratings.
Here are some ideas that have been discussed by the NFL as they look to adjust to win back viewers. Implementation would require agreement with the networks.
Fewer ad breaks
NFL executives publicly have said that they want to look into this, which makes sense given the volume of complaints about the frequency of stoppages during NFL games. This is the least likely idea to be enacted as the current contracts spell out the number and duration of ad breaks which are required to pay for the contracts with the NFL.
It would not be surprising to see the league experiment with shorter ad breaks in 2018, when it takes “Thursday Night Football” to the market and has the flexibility to negotiate new contracts.
Shorten half-time
This seems like a realistic option that could happen. In the NFL, half-times generally are about 12 minutes long. Once again, any change on halftime length would have to go through the TV networks that run advertising schedules throughout the break and produce half-time shows that also attract sponsors. As long as the networks do not lose advertising revenue, they likely would be agreeable to such a move. .
New replay review system
The NFL’s replay review process is too time-consuming and cumbersome. Referees jog off the field to watch replays for a minute or two under a hood, consulting with the NFL’s replay executives sitting in an office in New York. Then they huddle with other referees, talk to the coaches and announce their decision. The amount of time it takes to review a call is a big problem at home and in the stadium. The league has to speed up that process. The NFL is looking into the idea of allowing people remotely to review close plays, make decisions and relay them to the on-field referees.
Have PA speaker announce penalties
Why do referees announce every penalty? How much time would it save to use the PA system to make the announcements in-stadium and broadcast team to make the announcements on air? The idea being considered in NFL offices is to free up the officials to keep play moving even when penalties are called.
Too many broadcast windows
“Thursday Night Football” is here to stay. So is “Monday Night Football” and “Sunday Night Football.” The NFL makes too much in rights from these packages. Firstly though the decision to allocate games in particular on thursday nights to a wide range of teams has seen a real lack of quality in the games and this can be addressed in scheduling next year. Also recent noises suggest that Sunday morning 9:30am kickoffs (Eastern time) for the London games might be pushed back into the 1 pm window (6 p.m.London time) to run concurrently with other games. For the US audience NFL Sundays that start with the 9:30 a.m. games are filled with more than 14 hours of football. Football fatigue sets in for even the most ardent fan. Against that the afternoon kick offs are popular with our fans, especially those from outside London having to get home late on a Sunday evening.
Brodders Football Analysis
If you had bet £10 a point (average bet £150) on all Brodders’ bets this year you would be winning over £15000
Sign up to Brodders match analysis and recommended bets here for £50 a month. You are free to cancel at any time.
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Euro & other Football by Brodders (monthly) |
- The Euros 2016 for subscribers. Results: +£4,098.30 (betting £10 a point, average bet about £150) +ROI 31.43%
- Long term profit over 3 years. Following all bets subscribers are winning £20,216 (£10 a point, average bet £150) +ROI 5.71%
Bookmaker reviews and advice
Getting the best price available is very important for all those who take their betting seriously.
Please open an account with all those bookmakers on the page on this link that you do not already have an account with using the links provided.
Betting Emporium results
The detailed results page has been updated as have the spreadsheets with the detailed bets. They can be found by clicking RESULTS
£10 per point on every recommended bet since launch in Feb 2013 would be winning £34,185 (as at 26th October 2016)
All bets have an ROI +4.75% and Horse Racing has a ROI of +6.84%
A £4000 bank (see FAQ re bank-roll requirements) betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth £38, 185 an 855% increase
The Road to Riches Weekend of 26th-27th November
Coming Up this weekend
- Football. The Premier League programme includes Chelsea v Tottenham Hotspur.
- NFL Week Twelve of the NFL regular season includes the Kansas City Chiefs at the Denver Broncos on Sunday night football
- Racing includes jumps meetings at Newbury (featuring the Hennessey Gold Cup), Bangor, Doncaster and Newcastle and on the All-Weather Wolverhampton.
- Golf, the World Cup of Golf in Australia.
-Cricket, the third India-England test in Mohali begins. The third Australia-South Africa test match in Adelaide.
-Rugby Union, the Autumn Internationals continue with England v Argentina, Ireland v Australia, Wales v South Africa and France v New Zealand
- Formula One, the final race of the season, the Abu Dhabi Grand Prix.
PDC World Darts Championship (15th Dec to 2nd Jan) by Nigel Seeley
|
PDC World Darts Championship 2016 |
The full package is £50 and includes the outrights, all Nigel's match analysis and details of all the bets that we have.
Nigel is an excellent long term winner on the darts with an ROI +5.4%. If you had bet £10 a point on all darts bets on this website since we launched 3 years ago you would be winning £1466.90
Free Tip
India v England Third Test Betting Preview Mohali, Saturday 26th November 4am UK time start
The third test in the five match series begins in the city of Chandigarh in the Punjab tomorrow morning. India won in Vizag to go 1-0 up.
After England drew the first test the path of the second test match was much more as expected before the series. India won the toss, made 450 and England’s top order batted disappointingly. Once they were all out 200 runs behind India’s total the game was pretty much up on a pitch that deteriorated and helped the Indian spinners as the game went on.
On the fifth day, needing to bat 90 overs plus to save the game, England capitulated as their defensive techniques against spin proved insufficient.
Mohali will be another tough test for the visitors, with India having won five of the last six tests they have played there and drawn the other. One of the best batting pitches in India, traditionally, winning the toss is absolutely vital for England and if not, batting far better in their first innings crucial as on the sub continent there is rarely a way back from a big first innings deficit. Looking at the pitch from videos and reports in the 48 hours before the game its very dry, slightly cracked and it could be a case of “win the toss, bat and win the match”
In the last test match at Mohali, Indian spinners took 19 of the 20 South African wickets to fall in their victory. Such is the disparity for this match in the spin attacks and the way both of these batting line ups seek to combat spin that it would have been a major surprise if the pitch was not dry and cracked this time too.
India are likely to be unchanged after their win. England replace Duckett with Buttler and Broad and Ansari are injured meaning recalls for Woakes and Batty.
Odds for the game are as follows
India 8/13
England 7/2
Draw 9/2
Much like the last test 8/13 India is in the realms of being backable, I would have them 1/2 or shorter if they win the toss and no worse than fairly priced if they don’t. The draw being the outsider of the three options in 1-2-x markets reflects that this is a pitch not expected to last 5 days.
Looking at sub markets and performances in the two tests so far
top England batsman
So far in the series Stokes 233 runs Cook 207 runs , Root 206 runs
top India batsman
Kohli 337 runs Pujara 262 runs Vijay 167 runs
Top England bowler
Rashid 13 wickets Ali 7 wickets Broad 6 wickets
Top India Bowler
Ashwin 11 wickets, Jadeja 6 wickets
Injuries permitting, I would expect Rashid and Ashwin in the bowling ranks and Kohli in the batting to continue to lead the way with the England batting line up too competitive to bet with any confidence in any given innings. There is always the possibility that a batsman at 6 or 7 tops the scoring charts for England and that makes it a tough market to bet
The stand out bet for me in the match is Adil Rashid top England bowler at 5/2 generally but a stand out 100/30 with Skybet. Compare that to having to take 5/4 about Ashwin in the comparable Indian market.
For England conditions won’t suit Anderson and Woakes with the new ball or Stokes at first change and Batty isn’t going to run through a side at this level. I would see the main threat as Moeen Ali (second favourite in the market at up to 4/1) but Rashid has taken a step forward this series and is the biggest wicket taking threat England have in conditions that don’t suit them as a team
9 points Adil Rashid Top England bowler (1st innings) 100/30 Skybet (5/2 generally, we’ll record at 5/2)
Polling and Populism
It’s the 1st January 2017. President-elect Clinton is setting up a meeting with Prime Minister Miliband, who is going to travel to Washington after an EU budget meeting for the period 2017-2022. At which point I woke up.
All three outcomes above (Labour, Remain, Clinton) were odds-on in betting markets and firm favourites in pre-event polling. With all losing the past eighteen months have left the reputation of pollsters badly dented. Failure of the polls in Britain led to calls for regulation. There is talk they should be abandoned altogether in favour of alternative sources of data, or that time would be better spent going to speak to people whose views are not captured by polling companies. Above this high profile polling failures allow another reason for “experts” to be pilloried, as is the current vogue through sections of the media and the populace.We are we are told, in a “post-fact” era. Pollsters and pundits opining on polling trends are another elite to be put back in their place.
Polling is getting harder. Electorates are undergoing substantial changes with voters becoming more volatile and more detached from the parties that they have traditionally supported. In the US there is a growing new majority of millennials, racial minorities, immigrants and secular people creating a fast-moving target for pollsters from election to election.
First the Brexit/US Election comparison.
- In the case of Brexit, the polling picture was mixed. Telephone polls showed a clear lead for Remain, online polls showed a tight race, with leave often ahead. Our media expected Remain to win and wrongly focused only on those polls that agreed with them, leading to a false narrative of a clear Remain lead, rather than a close run thing. Some polls were wrong, but the perception that they were all off is wrong, it was a failure of interpretation.
- In the case of the USA, the polling picture was not really mixed. With the exception of one LA Times poll all the polls tended to show a picture of Clinton leading, backed up by state polls also showing Clinton leads consistent with the national polls.
How wrong were the US polls? Clinton won the popular vote but lost in the Electoral College. That doesn’t get the American pollsters off the hook though: the final polls were clustered around a 4% lead for Clinton, when in reality it looks about 1.5% (equivalent to over 2m votes). More importantly, the state polls were often a long way out. Polls had Ohio as a tight race when Trump won by 8 points. All the polls in Wisconsin had Clinton clearly ahead; Trump won. Polls in Minnesota were showing Clinton leads of 5-10 points, it ended up on a knife edge.
Errors were not evenly spread across the battleground states. In states with a comparative high proportion of white voters without a degree, Trump’s share of the vote was underestimated the most. Errors in state polling contributed to over-confident predictions of the outcome by poll aggregators.
Clinton suffered from a disappointing turnout among Hispanics, African Americans, single women and millennials. Clinton’s total vote fell well below Obama’s in 2008 and 2012. The other change voters, the white men without a degree, did their part too. Concentrated in rural and smaller towns in the rust belt, they became even more consolidated in their support for Trump and turned out to vote in unprecedented numbers. Trump won a huge 49% lead and 72% of the vote among this group.Finally within the non-college-educated white women group Trump won by 27% despite all the publicity about his attitudes to women, a 9% bigger margin than that achieved by Romney in 2012. Late turns across these three segments of voters allowed Trump to win Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania by a percentage point, overcome a loss in the popular vote and win the electoral college.
For pollsters across the world landline penetration is falling, response rates are falling and it seems likely that the people willing to take part in polls are less representative than previously. In the UK our samples seemed to be skewed towards people who were too educated, who paid too much attention to politics, followed the news agenda and the political media too closely. Those with little interest in politics were under-represented in samples and several UK pollsters have since started sampling and weighting by that to try and address the issue. Were the US pollsters to be shown to suffer a similar problem one can easily imagine how it could result in polls under-representing Donald Trump’s support, and so it did.
Polls still provide us with valuable information, if we can accept that they sometimes may be off by a matter of a few percentage points. In close races, these margins of error matter and make political betting markets difficult especially when the “wisdom” of the betting crowd is not formed from those voting most for change. In all three recent “polling errors” the UK General Election, Brexit and the Presidency the result was within margins of errors but in the latter two events especially the trend to “change” and “populism” was not adequately captured.
In the US, Trump and Clinton had the highest unfavourable ratings of any presidential candidates ever. This alone should have suggested that normal rules might not apply, or that the behaviour of voters would be less predictable than usual. Thanks to late swings, so it proved and so began another polling post-mortem.
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The Road to Riches: Weekend of 19th-20th November
Coming Up this weekend
- Football. The Premier League returns after the International Break including Manchester United v Arsenal.
- NFL Week Eleven of the NFL regular season includes the Arizona Cardinals at the Minnesota Vikings and the Philadelphia Eagles at the Seattle Seahawks.
- Racing includes jumps meetings at Ascot, Haydock (including the Betfair Chase) and Huntingdon, and on the All-Weather meetings at Lingfield and Wolverhampton.
- Golf, the Dubai World Championship and on the USPGA Tour the RSM Classic at Sea Island.
- Cricket, the second India-England test in Visakhapatnam continues.
- Rugby Union, the Autumn Internationals continue with Ireland v New Zealand, Scotland v Argentina, France v Australia and England v Fiji amongst the games
- Rugby League, the Four Nations final between Australia and New Zealand at Anfield
PDC World Darts Championship (15th Dec to 2nd Jan) by Nigel Seeley
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A look at Sports Personality of the year. Neil asked me to take a look at the market for Sports Personality of the Year, this year taking place in Birmingham on Sunday 18th December.
First a look at the processes behind the award. A panel of thirty sports journalists each submit a list of ten names. The ten names that feature most frequently are on a shortlist that is published at the beginning of December and the vote itself is a public one, with voting open (online and telephone) only on the night itself during the programme.
The size of the potential vote has decreased from its recent peak which was 2012 and London Olympics Year when Wiggins won with 492k votes and Murray needed 200k votes to finish 3rd. Whilst the size of votes for the winner have held up (2013 Murray 401k, 2014 Hamilton 209k and 2015 Murray 361k) it has taken far fewer votes to make the places since 2012 (third place votes 2013 57k, 2014 99k, 2015 79k)
The demographic of likely voters is a consideration too. The show is on a Sunday evening on BBC1 and, slightly subjective on my behalf this, the demographic is middle class, middle aged and more female than you’d find on Sky Sports say. While there have been winners from sports like Boxing, I have long thought it an advantage for those on the shortlist to have had some terrestrial TV exposure through the year, ideally on the BBC. The voting system is vulnerable to regional campaigns mobilising a vote. For example last year the retiring Rugby League player Kevin Sinfield finished second with 278,000 votes with campaigns in Yorkshire beforehand to get the vote out.
This year of course was the year of the 2016 Rio Olympics and we should expect Olympians to form a good part of the shortlist.
My back of fag packet ten name list was as follows:
Murray
Brownlee
Laura Trott
Bale
Farah
Skelton
Whitlock
Kenny
Joshua
Peaty
Eight Rio competitors there and no room in my list for Froome or Hamilton, for example.
Andy Murray is an overwhelming favourite to win his third SPOTY award. Just before winning last year he led Great Britain to the Davis Cup. Since then he has reached the Australian Open final, his first French Open final, won his second Wimbledon, won Olympic Gold again, won seven ATP titles and risen to World Number One in the era of Djokovic, Federer and Nadal.
Murray was 8-1+ for this award before Wimbledon and 6-4+ before Rio and went odds on before the number one spot was confirmed. He is currently twos-on and I thought he probably should be shorter again. Before I had the chance to take a deep breath and sense check with Neil he told me that he thought Murray could be fours-on in his opinion. We don’t look to put up really short ones in this column, certainly not six weeks out from settlement, but for those who like a short one, 1-2 is too long we think.
Second favourite is Alistair Brownlee at 4-1. His price was steady in double digits after he won his second Olympic triathlon title in Rio, the first man to do this and then plummeted in September after the Triathlon world series event in Mexico where he stopped 700 yards from the finish to help his brother, who had been leading but was suffering from severe heat stroke, finish the event thereby giving up a potential win for himself.
This is the sort of sportsmanship story that the viewers will lap up as the Mexico event moved beyond the rather specialist confines of the triathlon community onto the main news and into the public consciousness. It also helps with this viewing audience that the Brownlees are very nice boys and furthermore there are already regional campaigns (they are very Yorkshire) to get the vote out. In my mind, Brownlee is likely to finish second to Murray.
That leaves us with the rest of a likely shortlist to consider given that in several places (BetVictor, Ladbrokes and, ahem, BoyleSports) we can get three places one-fifth the odds with the rest of the market two places one third (which doesn’t offer much to go at with the front two 1/2 and 4/1)
At the time of writing the market shape is as follows (using best price at BetVictor or Ladbrokes)
Murray 1/2
Brownlee 4/1
Trott 10/1
Farah 12/1
Bale 20/1
Joshua 33/1
Whitlock 33/1
Kenny 40/1
Skelton 40/1
Hamilton 80/1
Ennis-Hill 100/1
I am going to narrow this down and try to find an each-way play for the night. I am going to exclude the following:
Farah – Didn’t make the top 3 (100,000 votes off 3rd) when he won the 5000-10000 metres Olympic double in 2012.He repeated the feat in 2016 but against a more controversial backdrop (coach, training regime). Never felt the public has particularly warmed to him
Joshua – Won the IBF World Heavyweight title in April and would have been a very live contender (a charismatic, popular fighter) if the Klitschko fight had gone ahead in December as originally mooted. As it is, that fight postponed into next year counts against him for this year’s award
Kenny. With three gold medals in Rio (one individual, two team), Kenny is the joint holder of the highest number of Olympic Golds for a British Athlete with 6 alongside fellow track cyclist Sir Chris Hoy. Couple of things count against him in that he quite clearly couldn’t give a toss about awards (sensible man) and is a low profile sportsman in PR terms whereas the new Mrs Kenny, Laura Trott, thrives on the exposure.
Whitlock. During the Rio Games, he first won a bronze medal in the all-round gymnastics event, which was Great Britain's first medal in this Olympic event for 108 years. Days later he won the gold medals in the Men's Floor and Men's Pommel Horse events, becoming his country's most successful Olympic gymnast, and its first Olympic champion in Gymnastics. The question here is the low general profile of a comparatively minor sport with the voting public.
Skelton. At Rio at the age of 58 won the Individual show-jumping gold medal at his seventh Olympics and very emotional it was too. Very nearly made my each-way shortlist, except for the minority nature of the sport (which nonetheless fits at least some of the voting demographic)
Hamilton. At the time of writing he is odds against to retain his F1 World driver’s title with one race to go next weekend. In an Olympic year he can’t win this unless he wins the title and even then it’s no guarantee. Won it in 2014, but didn’t win it on the other two occasions he won the title. With F1 off the BBC the “petrolhead” vote is not what it once was. Instinctively I am pre-disposed not to put my hard earned on anyone who chooses to preserve his bulldog’s sperm for posterity anyway.
Ennis Hill. Retired after winning silver in Rio. High profile popular sportswomen but with Olympic achievement so high this year shouldn’t feature. Might not even be in the short-list
So I have narrowed down my short-list to Trott or Bale
Laura Trott. With four Olympic gold medals, having won both the team pursuit and the omnium at both the 2012 and 2016 Olympics, Trott is both the most successful female track cyclist in Olympic history and Great Britain's most successful Olympic female competitor in any sport at the age of 24. Charismatic, popular and genuine has been in the spotlight a lot since Rio because of her wedding to Kenny. Very very active on social media.
Gareth Bale. The on-field driving force in Wales’ run to the 2016 European championship semi-finals, with three goals in the finals. One of Great Britain’s few world class footballers, playing for the biggest side in the world Real Madrid. Hasn’t previously featured in the SPOTY places but is going to be there or thereabouts this year given the Welsh performance in the Euros. Could attract a nationalistic Welsh vote.
Trott or Bale is a close run thing (probably for third in the voting) in my mind. I am going to recommend Bale at double the price of Trott, a marginal preference but thinking the "Olympic block" vote on the night will get split while the Welsh vote isn't.
6 points each way Gareth Bale BBC Sports Personality of the Year 20-1 each way 1/5 1,2,3 BetVictor (18/1 Ladbrokes)
Goal!
Through the first three months of the 2016-17 Premier League season the current top four teams have all averaged more than two goals a game. The goals-per-game ratio so far this season after 110 games is 2.78 (Opta.) The highest over a Premier League season is 2.81 in 2011-12.
So far this season we’ve seen Chelsea lose 3-0 at Arsenal then, subsequent to moving to three at the back, beat Manchester United 4-0 and Everton 5-0 at home. Arsenal lost 4-3 at home to Liverpool whilst Leicester (admittedly not the side of last year minus Kante) have shipped four goals at both Anfield and Old Trafford. The season has seen two 6-1 results too.
What are the factors that might be causing these unusual scorelines, with one sided matches between the bigger sides?
Firstly more teams are taking an attacking approach to each game. Far fewer teams,even those towards the bottom of the table, set up (or are incapable of setting up) to frustrate their opponents away from home. Yes, we see occasional trademark Mourinho away performances at big teams and the likes of Pulis attempt to keep clean sheets first but the prevailing tactical fashion for high-pressing to turn the ball over quickly means games can be quite one-sided.
I have seen this watching my own side, shorn of the brilliant Kante, continuing to press but this season be pressed far more themselves. On losing possession the defensive midfield is not of the quality it was and the protection offered to the back four far less solid. The result away from home has been conceding a lot of goals. A potential solution, to play the extra midfielder and drop a wide or attacking player has so far not been favoured.
Pressing tactics are in vogue. Liverpool top the table and are excellent to watch, with Klopp’s high press being executed far more consistently than it was last season. They have scored 30 goals in 11 games, four more than the next highest, Chelsea, but have also conceded 14 goals, more than one a game. When Chelsea won the league in 2004-05 they conceded only 15 goals in the whole season. After 11 matches in that season a decade ago Arsenal were the only team to score more than two goals a game.
I wrote at times last season about the changing financial landscape in the Premier League in the new TV deal, where even the teams finishing near the bottom of the table were guaranteed TV income of over £100m pa, and how this was broadening out the spread of talent coming into the league, rather than as previously it being concentrated in a handful of clubs. Perhaps this is being reflected in the tactical approaches of the “smaller” teams in the league.
Two weeks ago Watford, who under Flores last season played a rigid two banks of four with barely a creative midfielder in sight and were very tough to break down, with Deeney in behind Ighalo creating a fifth midfielder when they were without the ball, went to Anfield. Before the game the rhetoric from Deeney was interesting, clearly indicating that they were going to Anfield for a positive result. New head coach Walter Mazzarri played Deeney right up top. Watford went behind and didn’t change approach, remained quite open and chased the game. They lost 6-1.
At the same time Crystal Palace played at Burnley (a stone cold “unders” spot last time Burnley were in the top flight in 2014) and set up to attack. They went 2-0 down and fought back to 2-2. It’s Alan Pardew, he would normally be expected to batten up the hatches take the point and head south job well done. Instead they searched for the winner, and lose in the 94st minute on the counter. Palace have scored 16 goals in the league this season and are 16th place.
Finally we have to consider the standard of defending (and defensive midfielder) where in general terms the standard of player does not match their attacking counterparts. Chelsea have had bids of £60m for Koulibaly and £40m for Manolas rejected by Napoli and Roma respectively, whilst a £60m move for Bonucci is oft mooted. It shows that defenders are at a premium and Conte for one wants to strengthen at the back. For now Chelsea can compensate for the risks involved in playing Luiz in a back four by changing system, but not all clubs have that flexibility in managerial approach.
Brodders Football Analysis
If you had bet £10 a point (average bet £150) on all Brodders’ bets this year you would be winning over £15000
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Euro & other Football by Brodders (monthly) |
- The Euros 2016 for subscribers. Results: +£4,098.30 (betting £10 a point, average bet about £150) +ROI 31.43%
- Long term profit over 3 years. Following all bets subscribers are winning £20,216 (£10 a point, average bet £150) +ROI 5.71%
Bookmaker reviews and advice
Getting the best price available is very important for all those who take their betting seriously.
Please open an account with all those bookmakers on the page on this link that you do not already have an account with using the links provided.
Betting Emporium results
The detailed results page has been updated as have the spreadsheets with the detailed bets. They can be found by clicking RESULTS
£10 per point on every recommended bet since launch in Feb 2013 would be winning £34,185 (as at 26th October 2016)
All bets have an ROI +4.75% and Horse Racing has a ROI of +6.84%
A £4000 bank (see FAQ re bank-roll requirements) betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth £38, 185 an 855% increase
