Weekly Articles "Road to Riches" by Rich 'Tighty' Prew
The Road to Riches Weekend of 8th-9th October
Coming Up this weekend
- Football. The Premier League is on International break. England play Malta on Saturday.
- NFL Week Five of the NFL regular season includes the New York Giants at the Green Bay Packers and the Cincinnati Bengals at the Dallas Cowboys
- Racing, on the flat at Newcastle, Newmarket and York and over the jumps at Chepstow and Hexham.
- Golf, the Alfred Dunhill Links Championship at St Andrews
- Tennis, ATP and WTA China Open in Beijing. ATP Japan Open in Tokyo.
- Formula One, the Japanese Grand Prix
- Rugby Union, the sixth and final round of the 2016 Rugby Championship sees South Africa v New Zealand in Durban and Argentina and Australia meet at Twickenham.
- Cricket, England begin a three match ODI series at the start of their tour of Bangladesh
Free Tip by Neil Channing
The Cesarewitch, Saturday Newmarket 4.10pm
At first glance the Cesarewitch may appear to be so impossible to fathom that it feels like a race to skip but if you did that you'd be making a mistake. Regular readers will appreciate how much value we get, at least on the place part of our each-way bets, when bookmakers offer 1/4 12345 and in this race some are even going 1/4 123456. When you factor in the massive advantage that horses with a low draw have this race is really not that hard at all (it's still hard to find the winner but I'd say it's not that hard to know you've had a good bet which is what we are actually aiming to do). I'll run through the dozen with the lowest draws...
Mistiroc has never been over this trip and probably wouldn't be good enough anyway. Easy to rule out.
Angel Gabrial wouldn't totally shock me. Has been coming down the weights and maybe is just too exposed to win a big handicap but on his day he could win.
The Twisler isn't certain to stay and wants softer ground but even with that is not really good enough and easy to rule out.
The Minch is really unexposed and who knows how good he is but surely he's too inexperienced to win this.
The Cashel Man has let me down big time once this season but I think this horse should improve on his last run now he has blinkers for the 2nd time, we know he stays, he likes it here and the ground will be fine. Looks solid.
Grumeti is a little battler from a stable that does pretty well on the flat. I think this ground will be too fast though.
Oriental Fox was 2nd to Grumeti in this last year but I just think he is old and exposed.
Leah Freyer shows no evidence that she is good enough for this or that she will stay.
Blue Rambler is another young unexposed horse who ought to stay but who probably wants softer ground.
Modem is a good hurdler but getting this trip on the flat is a different matter and the ground will probably be too fast.
Sea of Heaven is better drawn than his stablemate the favourite St Michel and the horse who beat him last recently who I would have liked from a better draw (Sweet Selection). This one is fine on the ground and trip and seems solid.
If I added a 3rd bet it would be Angel Gabrial but I'm going to have two.
I'm having 8 Points each-way Sea of Heaven at 14/1 1/4 12345 with Bet365 (some firms will reveal their place terms and go 5 places later tonight)
I'm having 9 Points each-way The Cashel Man at 14/1 1/4 12345 with Bet365 (would take 12/1 this one happily).
Winter is Coming
With five races to go in the 2016 F1 season, Nico Rosberg now leads Lewis Hamilton by 23 points following Hamilton’s engine failure when almost certain to win in Malaysia last weekend, to continue the mechanical failures that have dogged his attempt to win a fourth driver's championship.
For the casual fan though, it is only the Rosberg/Hamilton battle that has stirred the senses in this season, the last under the current F1 regulations which Mercedes have dominated over the past three years. F1 is in an era of declining viewers and high ticket prices and audiences are down both live and on media. The biggest drama has been off the track as the "what is going to happen to the sport?" question rumbles on.
As it is Mercedes is looking to be a rare team to maintain an advantage through a major rule change when F1's aerodynamic regulations get overhauled this winter. The last two step changes to F1's technical regulations have put an end to periods of dominance for certain teams and brought about new eras in the sport. Big changes to the aerodynamic regulations in 2009 saw 2008's title protagonists Ferrari and McLaren struggle and Brawn GP emerge as champions exploiting a regulation loophole with an innovative double diffuser concept. Once the double diffuser concept was copied by rivals and eventually banned, Red Bull emerged as F1's leading team and win four consecutive titles until the last big regulation change in 2014. At that point Mercedes unlocked the most performance from the current V6 turbo engine regulations and has consistently led the field ever since.
Rivals, and no doubt many fans, are hoping the 2017 rule changes which will see wider cars, wider tyres and revised aerodynamic regulations will produce a change in the pecking order. This might not happen though. Although the chassis regulations are changing dramatically, the engine regulations remain unchanged, meaning Mercedes should retain its power unit advantage. Although Ferrari, Renault and Honda have made modest inroads into the Mercedes engine’s performance advantage through this current season unless Mercedes mis-manages the upcoming shifts on aerodynamics or chassis the likelihood is that they will have the most powerful car again next year
It is hoped that the changes will deliver a more exciting spectacle and make the cars more challenging for drivers. The intention is to reduce lap times by up to five seconds, something that should be easily accomplished in this framework, with lap and pole records likely to tumble at every race.
However there have been concerns that all may not be positive: especially with some fearing that the increase in downforce could hurt overtaking opportunities. Fears of cars still not being able to follow one another (cars overheat and tyres degrade quicker in the dirty air behind the current iteration of F1 cars) should be heeded as it is this that leads to processional races that are so off-putting for the sport as a spectacle. In this era of restricted tyre life a lot of passing is done in the pits. Next year the stint length will still be determined by the tyres. All we'd get is the same as now, just faster, which is no different to a TV audience than it is currently.
Brodders Football Analysis
September was Brodders European football sixth winning month in a row. His ROI for 2016 is +12.25%
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Euro & other Football by Brodders (monthly) |
- The Euros 2016 for subscribers. Results: +£4,098.30 (betting £10 a point, average bet about £150) +ROI 31.43%
- Long term profit over 3 years. Following all bets subscribers are winning £16,801 (£10 a point, average bet £150) +ROI 5.01%
Bookmaker reviews and advice
Getting the best price available is very important for all those who take their betting seriously.
Please open an account with all those bookmakers on the page on this link that you do not already have an account with using the links provided.
Betting Emporium results
The detailed results page has been updated as have the spreadsheets with the detailed bets. They can be found by clicking RESULTS
£10 per point on every recommended bet since launch in Feb 2013 would be winning £30,462 (as at 20th September 2016)
All bets have an ROI +4.45% and Horse Racing has a ROI of +6.9%
A £4000 bank (see FAQ re bank-roll requirements) betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth £34,462 a 761% increase
The Road to Riches: Weekend of 1st-2nd October
Coming Up this weekend
- Football. The Premier League programme includes second v first, Tottenham v Manchester City. Premier League Statistical Analysis and bets for this weekend can be viewed here
- NFL Week Four of the NFL regular season includes the Indianapolis Colts v the Jacksonville Jaguars at Wembley stadium.
- Racing, on the flat at Ascot, Newmarket, Redcar and Wolverhampton. Fontwell Park over the jumps
- Golf, the Ryder Cup at Hazletine National in Minnesota
- Tennis, ATPs Shanghai and Chengdu in China and ATP Malaysia
- Formula One, the Malaysian Grand Prix
- Rugby Union, Round 5 of the Rugby Championship South Africa v Australia in Pretoria and Argentina v New Zealand in Buenos Aires
Free Tip: The NFL at Wembley stadium
Indianapolis Colts v Jacksonville Jaguars Sunday 2.30pm BBC2
The first of this year’s three NFL games to be held in the UK takes place on Sunday with an AFC South divisional game between the Jacksonville Jaguars (notionally the home team) and the Indianapolis Colts.
The Colts are 2.5 point favourites in a game with a points expectation of just under 50. I’ll leave thoughts on line and spreads to Neil in his weekly writing. Instead I’ll look at the teams and some background and see if it leads to some thoughts in the touchdown markets.
I said to Neil last week “I feel like I have been backing the Jags to turn round every year since 2011”, a product of often seeing them as big dogs on the spreads and my hopes of them covering often proving illusory. As a franchise they’ve been in the doldrums for several years and this was meant to be the year that fortunes would improve markedly, and the play-offs were widely expected to be on the agenda. So far, that looks wide of the mark as the team has started 0-3.
The Jaguars haven’t had a winning season since 2007 and this is really not how the NFL is meant to work. The whole ethos of the league is to promote parity, with a salary cap and free agency preventing a few teams cornering the market in talent and the worst teams getting the first chance to pick up the best college players in the annual draft.
Indeed the Jags have built their team in a textbook manner and drafts since 2011 have produced high picks at quarterback, offensive line and most recently pass rusher and cornerback, the “big money” positions within NFL rosters. Having players such as Blake Bortles, Dante Fowler and Jalen Ramsey on rookie contracts at these key positions should produce a competitive advantage compared to having them on more expensive second contracts (enabling the team to be an active player in free agency because of salary cap space compared to teams with big bucks tied up on veteran marquee players) but so far the benefit of this has not been seen. This year a large part of this is down to inconsistent performance from Bortles, who looked to have really developed last year when he set franchise records in passing yards (4,428) and touchdowns (35) having been picked third overall in the 2014 draft but so far this year has thrown seven interceptions in three games and lacked accuracy on his throws. As a result coach Gus Bradley (he of the current lowest winning percentage of any active NFL coach with a 12-39 record since his appointment three years ago) is under pressure.
All that said, playing the Colts who won their first game of the year at home to the Chargers last weekend, represents a decent opportunity for the Jaguars to notch up a result. This is in large part due to the Colts’ deficiencies on the defensive side of the ball where weaknesses are seen on a weekly basis notably at linebacker. Big picture, the Colts have under-invested in the draft on defense and this shows up regularly. So far this season on the small three game sample, the Colts have allowed 95 points and over 400 yards a game to their opponents, ranking in the bottom third of the league.
In terms of first touchdown scorer markets this is a tough game to narrow down the options. The Colts have (even with Donte Moncrieff injured) a lot of big player receivers and a quarterback in Andrew Luck who can make any throw. The Jaguars have four legitimate play-makers on offense too in Robinson, Hurns, Yeldon and Thomas. This helps explain why this is expected to be a 50+ point game.
The angle I prefer is the anytime touchdown scorer market. The Jaguars main Tight End is big money free agency signing Julius Thomas who came across from the Broncos at the beginning of last season after two seasons in which he snagged 24 touchdowns. Almost inevitably (this is the Jags) it hasn’t been the same in Florida but he recovered from an early season injury to score five touchdowns last year. He’s not a flashy route runner but he is a big threat in the red zone (a big man with great hands) and so far this year had 135 yards receiving and a touchdown in the first two weeks of the season before laying an egg in the third game at home to Baltimore last weekend with 2 of 5 for 12 yards, a game in which he injured his elbow.
Thomas didn't practice in the first part of this week and appeared as "questionable" on the injury report, practiced with an elbow in a brace on Friday and is described as a "game time decision" to play this game.
Ordinarily this is the sort of match up that should suit Thomas but instead this may be an opportunity for the second tight end Marcedes Lewis who in recent years has been used primarily as a blocker, having been supplanted as the primary receiving tight end on Thomas’ arrival. In 2010 Lewis had a stand out season with 10 receiving touchdowns, something he hasn’t repeated since not helped by two injury hit seasons that led to the recruitment of Thomas.
So far this season in his secondary role Lewis has one touchdown and seven receptions. Amongst all Tight Ends in the league he is actually top of the charts in (its the NFL, there's a stat for everything...) "yards gained per route run" which tends to suggest he's under-used in the passing game.
The Thomas injury and the weaknesses in the Colts linebacking corps gives a match-up to contemplate here for Lewis.
7 points Marcedes Lewis Anytime touchdown scorer 100/30 Betfred (3/1 Bet365)
(note more anytime prices will be up Saturday, typically)
Ryder on the storm
With eight defeats in the last ten Ryder Cups, the US team are 8/13 favourites to win the 41st renewal of the event at Hazeltine in Minnesota starting today and Neil Channing has written about the event from a betting perspective, free to view, here
It is an important Ryder Cup for several of its major stakeholders. NBC’s ratings fell markedly at Gleneagles in 2014. Viewing figures for the Sunday singles, a session in which Tom Watson’s players dramatically under-performed amidst Phil Mickelson-led back-biting, were the lowest since the network began covering the Ryder Cup in 1991.
Americans switched off from the Ryder Cup because they saw diminishing evidence of a rivalry and in many US Sports administrators govern the sports so as viewers can expect parity and much of the ethos of sports broadcasting is that any team can beat any other. With eight wins in ten events since 1995, NBC has struggled to market this Ryder Cup as an even confrontation.
It was the same in reverse a generation ago in 1977 when a 10th successive US triumph prompted Jack Nicklaus to suggest that the continental Europeans be invited to the competition the golf writer Peter Dobereiner wrote that “in America, the Ryder Cup now rates somewhere between Tennessee frog-jumping and the Alabama Melon Pip-Spitting Championship”.
Increasingly, golf’s showpiece team event finds itself in a fight for the exposure it was once guaranteed on the US sports calendar, competing with the conclusion to the baseball season and the new NFL season. A narrative of disappointment, especially for captain Love who could be only the second leader of a US side to lose twice, risks hastening the Ryder Cup’s slide towards irrelevance in its most significant market.
My ears pricked up when I heard Davis Love make the claim that his US Ryder Cup side “is the best golf team, maybe, ever assembled”. The 1981 Ryder Cup team that beat Europe 18½-9½ is regarded as the best in history, featuring Jack Nicklaus, Tom Watson, Lee Trevino, Ray Floyd, Hale Irwin and Johnny Miller. Only one of the 12 players never won a major. In contrast, only five of Love’s side has won majors, the same as the European side.
The Europe team, notwithstanding its six rookies, actually has more representatives in the world’s top 12 at the moment than the hosts. What Love will have to do to enable his team to justify his claim is fashion a team that plays for each other and not just for themselves as individuals. Successive US teams have been affected by lack of team spirit and factions within the camp.
At the time of writing, with the USA 4-0 up after the first morning foursomews, so far so good for the USA.
Brodders Football Analysis
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Euro & other Football by Brodders (monthly) |
- The Euros 2016 for subscribers. Results: +£4,098.30 (betting £10 a point, average bet about £150) +ROI 31.43%
- Long term profit over 3 years. Following all bets subscribers are winning £16,801 (£10 a point, average bet £150) +ROI 5.01%
Bookmaker reviews and advice
Getting the best price available is very important for all those who take their betting seriously.
Please open an account with all those bookmakers on the page on this link that you do not already have an account with using the links provided.
Betting Emporium results
The detailed results page has been updated as have the spreadsheets with the detailed bets. They can be found by clicking RESULTS
£10 per point on every recommended bet since launch in Feb 2013 would be winning £30,462 (as at 20th September 2016)
All bets have an ROI +4.45% and Horse Racing has a ROI of +6.9%
A £4000 bank (see FAQ re bank-roll requirements) betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth £34,462 a 761% increase
The Road to Riches Weekend of 24th-25th September
Coming Up this weekend
- Football. The Premier League programme includes Arsenal v Chelsea and Manchester United v Leicester City.
- NFL Week Three of the NFL regular season includes the Denver Broncos at the Cincinnati Bengals.
- Racing, on the flat at Chester, Hamilton, Haydock, Newmarket and Ripon and Market Rasen over the Jumps
- Golf, the USPGA Tour Championship at East Lake GC and on the European Tour the Porsche Open in Germany
- Tennis, ATP St Petersburg and ATP Open de Moselle in Metz
Free Tip by Neil Channing -The Cambridgeshire at Newmarket
With 35 runners this one is obviously not going to be easy but the five places offered by a few firms and the six places in one place make it a race where we have a definite edge on the place part of any each-way bet. All we need to do then is find the winner!
I do think we can narrow it down a bit by knocking out anything drawn high, by concentrating on those that stay at least 9f and preferably 10f, by ignoring those carrying more than 9 stone on the basis that you need a little up your sleeve to win such a competitive handicap and to insist that our selections go on fast ground. That ought to get it down to a manageable shortlist.
Taking it in draw order from the horse drawn 12 and down...
American Artist was unlucky at Sandown last time when having his first run for three months having just had his gelding operation. Horses usually need a run after a thing like that and apparently they relax and eat more and grow. This one likes fast ground, he comes from a stable in form and he has won over further than this. I like it.
Dolphin Vista has the right kind of weight and he is a 3-year old which is not a barrier to success. He hasn't won over 10f though and he is maybe not suited by this fastish ground so I'll leave him alone.
Ginger Jack has a fair weight and he was a fair 10th in this race last year. He is knocking on a bit though and it's hard to see him having anything in hand.
Knight Owl is trained by a favourite of mine in James Fanshawe and he has a fair weight. this one will really like the fast pace and he has good form here but possibly he might find the ground a bit lively.
Very Talented is a pretty unexposed 3-year old and seeing as we can't be sure he really stays this trip, loves the fast ground or loves it at this track I think he is easy to ignore when looking for a solid place bet that might win.
Balmoral Castle carries a fair chunk of weight more than he's ever carried to victory so I'll rule him out.
Stipulate carries the 9 stone which is where I cut it off. He hasn't won for ages mostly because he looks badly handicapped and they've been fiddling around running him on all sorts of trips. He will stay.
Ode to Evening is a 3-year old with a fair bit of weight. He has won over further, on this course and on the ground but I do wonder if he can improve enough to win off his highest mark.
Bastille Day should stay Ok and will like the course and the track. In fact if you wanted to throw an extra dart at a big price this would be the one.
Chil The Kite was 6th as favourite in this race four years ago but now he has a chunk of weight and he is obviously older. I don't really think he'll be at his peak which he'll need to be.
Zhui Feng did win over the trip at Goodwood but that is a much easier track and I think he may struggle to get home here with this big field and fast pace.
Master the World was a bet for Betting Emporium at Goodwood where it was beaten into 2nd. The horse was beaten into 2nd a short-head last year in this race but I have to rule him out as he is carrying a large weight. If I picked two horses this would be my other one.
I'm going to stick to just one bet here although if I had four I'd throw in Master the World, Bastille Day and Knight Owl.
I'm having 7 Points each-way American Artist at 28/1 1/4 12345 with Paddy Power or at 25/1 1/4 123456 with Sky Bet
City Limits
A domestic T20 cricket tournament featuring eight new city-based teams running each July has moved a step closer following a vote last week to further explore the proposal.
Representatives of the ECB, the counties, the MCC and the Professional Cricketers’ Association discussed five options for change to domestic T20 and decided to discuss further a tournament that would follow a similar model to Australia’s Big Bash and the Indian Premier League. The tournament would run in conjunction with the NatWest T20 Blast, which will continue to be contested by the existing 18 counties, and would be run centrally by the ECB. It is believed each team would be restricted to three overseas players, with a draft system used to select squads of between 14 and 16 players.
A desire to replicate the success of the IPL and Big Bash is obvious. In England though, it is not assured. Cricket is the number one sport in India. The IPL does not have to directly compete for airtime and column inches with the Premier League for example as English cricket has to. Also cricket is one of the biggest sports in Australia (if not quite as dominant as it is in the sub-continent). Additionally, the huge distances in Australia mean that opportunities to watch the very best players in person are few and far between. Also, both India and Australia have climates more condusive to watching cricket on summer evenings than England.
“We’ve all been looking at how we can use domestic T20 for an even bigger purpose, especially getting more young people to play,” the ECB chairman, Colin Graves, said in a statement. “This format was invented here and is successful worldwide. It can excite new fans, attract the best players and fuel the future of the game, on and off the pitch."
The new format, which is part of the “Cricket Unleashed” strategy, will be considered formally by the ECB board in October.
This has been a hugely controversial move in English cricket, and very unpopular amongst existing county supporters. Counties themselves have feared being marginalised but the likely blow to their attendances and loss of major players for chunks of the season is being softened by payments of up to £1.5m per county per annum. Particularly for counties without test cricket revenue that is a hard sum to turn down and in the end only three of the 18 counties (Surrey, Kent and Sussex not coincidentally three of the counties who market the current T20 competition the best, with high attendances) voted against
The ECB's aim is obvious, over and above broadening cricket's audience. More sponsorship, gate receipts and all the riches TV can bring. Sky would surely be keen. A TV bidding war could be even more lucrative should, for instance, BT Sport show an interest in a new cricket tournament.
Cricket's hardcore are furious about the proposed changes to the structure of the game. They want 18 counties, not eight cities. The ECB believes that the hardcore are the past: An ageing supporter base bringing diminishing attendances every year for the traditional form of the game but it is no wonder that it is mostly older fans who attend county cricket when the biggest four-day games are played on weekdays in April/May and September. The kids are at school and the parents are at work.
It cannot be denied that T20 cricket has brought bigger crowds and new fans, and old-fashioned county members do not begrudge this. But it is a self-fulfilling prophecy: T20 games are given the best fixture slots: midsummer weekend evenings. Of course that is going to bring bigger crowds. Maybe the last round of the county championship season being played this week, a three way fight for the title would bring big crowds if it was played at a weekend.
As it is, English domestic cricket is one step closer to a huge structural change
Brodders Football Analysis
Sign up to Brodders match analysis and recommended bets here for £50 a month. You are free to cancel at any time.
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Euro & other Football by Brodders (monthly) |
- The Euros 2016 for subscribers. Results: +£4,098.30 (betting £10 a point, average bet about £150) +ROI 31.43%
- Long term profit over 3 years. Following all bets subscribers are winning £16,801 (£10 a point, average bet £150) +ROI 5.01%
Bookmaker reviews and advice
Getting the best price available is very important for all those who take their betting seriously.
Please open an account with all those bookmakers on the page on this link that you do not already have an account with using the links provided.
Betting Emporium results
The detailed results page has been updated as have the spreadsheets with the detailed bets. They can be found by clicking RESULTS
£10 per point on every recommended bet since launch in Feb 2013 would be winning £30,462 (as at 20th September 2016)
All bets have an ROI +4.45% and Horse Racing has a ROI of +6.9%
A £4000 bank (see FAQ re bank-roll requirements) betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth £34,462 a 761% increase
The Road to Riches Weekend of 17th-18th September
Coming Up this weekend
- Football. The Premier League programme includes Chelsea v Liverpool on Friday night
- NFL Week Two of the new NFL regular season includes five divisional match ups including the Cowboys at the Redskins and the Dolphins at the Patriots.
- Racing, on the flat at Ayr, Catterick, Newbury, Newmarket and Wolverhampton
- Formula One, the Singapore Grand Prix
- Golf, on the European Tour the Italian Open in Milan
- Tennis, Davis Cup World Group Semi-finals including Great Britain v Argentina in Glasgow
- Rugby Union, the fourth round of Rugby Championship games. New Zealand v South Africa in Christchurch and Australia v Argentina in Perth on Saturday
- Cricket, Warwickshire v Surrey in the Royal London One Day Cup Final at Lords
Free Tip- Rugby Special
Rugby Championship Australia v Argentina 11am UK Time Saturday
The fourth round of the Rugby Championship takes place this weekend, and in Perth Australia host Argentina. So far in the series the Australians were convincingly beaten by the All Blacks home and away before they came from 14-3 down to beat South Africa in Brisbane last weekend.Argentina meanwhile narrowly lost in South Africa in round 1 before winning the reverse fixture at home a week later. They then lost in New Zealand last week.
For this game Australia are 1/3 Argentina 100/30 and Australia 10 point handicap favourites. A conservative bet I could certainly justify would be Argentina +10.
Argentine rugby is in the middle of a transformational stage. A few years ago a side playing Argentina would be assured of a few things. The forwards would be massive. A fly half would kick penalties from everywhere and the backs would come off the pitch in kit as pristine as when it left the wrapper. Playing the Pumas was hugely physical but in scoreboard terms the only way they were going to hurt you was with the boot or if you didn't match them up front.
A couple of years before the 2015 RWC though a change of philosophy emerged with new coaches and a desire to become competitive on the world stage which coincided with their entry into this competition in 2012. The change in Argentine rugby since has been thrilling to watch, including reaching the 2015 rugby world cup semi-final playing some great stuff, attacking from everywhere on the field. Whilst their forwards are still huge, the new generation have developed ball playing skills and given the side a real "all court" presence.
Argentina have only won a couple of games in the Rugby Championship in their first years in the competitition but they are getting closer all the time. An Argentine franchise in super rugby, Los Jaguares, for the first time last year is also giving their players regular exposure to top class rugby.
So far this year in round 1 Argentina led South Africa 13-10 at half time and 23-13 with ten minutes to go, and lost. In round 2 they led South Africa 23-13 with twenty minutes to go and went behind, winning with a late penalty. In Round 3 they led New Zealand early and trailed only 24-19 at half time before getting stuffed in the second half and losing by 35.
Since Australia reached the 2015 Rugby World cup final their form has slipped back, losing a series 3-0 to England earlier in our summer and their come from behind win against South Africa last weekend was their first test win for 9 months. It was only in the second half of that game where they looked something like their old selves but they remain injury hit and lacking a distinctive style of play. Argentina could get very close this weekend.
The suggestion i am going to make here is more speculative than Argentina +10 or even Argentina outright but it does i think play into Argentina being more competitive than ever at this level, their attacking intent meaning they can put up points especially early and Australia's difficulties. At the same time we have to acknowledge that they are less of a threat late in games when lack of bench strength comes into play. It is Argentina half time/Australia full time at 6/1.
8 points Argentina Half-Time/Australia Full-Time 6/1 Coral or BetVictor
Lions Made.
Last week Wales coach Warren Gatland was named as Head Coach of the 2017 British Lions Tour to New Zealand. The task ahead is arguably the toughest any Lions coach has ever faced. Rugby jounalist Stephen Jones described it as “mission impossible" in last week's Sunday Times.
There are many factors that make this tour so tough and Gatland was an obvious choice. He’s been successful on both the club and international stage winning European and Premiership titles with Wasps as well as Grand Slams with Wales. Plus of course he’s been involved with the Lions before coaching on the 2009 South Africa tour before leading the 2013 team to a first Lions series win in 16 years.
The schedule for next summer has been described as “ludicrous”. This is mainly because no one, either Northern hemisphere clubs/home unions and competition organisers or New Zealand rugby, was willing to compromise on the timing of the tour. New Zealand would not consider moving the tour back a couple of weeks to give the Lions time to prepare and neither the Aviva Premiership nor the Guinness Pro12 would move their finals forward. A huge contingent of the squad are likely to be playing for their clubs just a week before the first game of the tour. At the end of a hard season (leading players typically play 50+ games in a season) and with scant preparation time the squad simply will not have the time to prepare adequately.
A simple solution would be to scrap the play-offs in Lions year reducing the season by two weeks or cancel the Anglo-Welsh Cup in those seasons. Or turn the screw on the host country, which makes millions from these tours in match revenue, broadcasting rights, sponsorship and beyond that tourism.
For the moment as the Lions tour manager said at the Gatland announcement "All of rugby is tugging in different directions” and the administration of the game simply isn't joined up and lags the professional game as it has developed on the pitch by several years.
On top of the schedule is the quality of the opposition. Those Lions actually available to play may have a comfortable start with a game against a Provincial XV made up of Mitre 10 Cup players but after that it is relentless. They play all five New Zealand Super Rugby franchises includings half of this year’s quarter-finalists and it is likely that players in the All Blacks squad will be playing in those games the opposite of 2013, when Wallabies were withdrawn from their Super Rugby sides. A week before the first Test they play the Maoris, a side that will relish the opportunity to tear into the Lions and beat them on the last Lions tour. For a lot of the Lions players, dragging themselves round New Zealand after a long domestic season, making the first test fit for selection will be an achievement in itself.
There are three Tests against the best team in the world – back-to-back World Cup winners and a side that has lost just three games since the start of RWC 2011. The All Blacks have not lost at Eden Park since 1994 and are staging two of the Tests in Auckland too. Anyone would think that the All Blacks want to stack the deck.
The Lions have only won a series in New Zealand once, back in 1971, and for all the British and Irish talent at Gatland’s disposal, the odds are hugely against another win in 2017. Beyond that, there is some hard thinking to do. In a professional world the Lions, one of the biggest sporting brands, will struggle to survive if their schedule remains so punishing and the administration continues to be amateur.
Brodders Football Analysis
Sign up to Brodders match analysis and recommended bets here for £50 a month. You are free to cancel at any time.
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Euro & other Football by Brodders (monthly) |
- The Euros 2016 for subscribers. Results: +£4,098.30 (betting £10 a point, average bet about £150) +ROI 31.43%
- Long term profit over 3 years. Following all bets subscribers are winning £13,453 (£10 a point, average bet £150) +ROI 4.34%
Bookmaker reviews and advice
Getting the best price available is very important for all those who take their betting seriously.
Please open an account with all those bookmakers on the page on this link that you do not already have an account with using the links provided.
Betting Emporium results
The detailed results page has been updated as have the spreadsheets with the detailed bets. They can be found by clicking RESULTS
£10 per point on every recommended bet since launch in Feb 2013 would be winning £24,581 (as at 11th August 2016)
All bets have an ROI +3.77% and Horse Racing has a ROI of +5.48%
A £4000 bank (see FAQ re bank-roll requirements) betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth £28, 581 a 614% increase
The Road to Riches: Weekend of 10th-11th September
Coming Up this weekend
- Football. The Premier League returns including the Manchester derby at Old Trafford on Saturday lunchtime
- NFL Week One of the new NFL regular season
- Racing, on the flat at Bath, Chester, Doncaster (including the St Leger), Lingfield and Musselburgh
- Golf, On the USPGA the BMW Championship at Crooked Stick and on the European Tour the KLM Open in the Netherlands
- Tennis, the finals of the US Open
- Rugby Union, the new Aviva Premiership season continues including Leicester v Wasps on Saturday and Exeter v Saracens on Sunday
2016-2017 NFL Content
Ahead of the new season we have published two articles this week, ante-post outrights and player specials and “what to expect for the regular season”. Neil Channing’s coverage begins with week one of the regular season
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NFL 2016 - What to Expect for the regular season |
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NFL 2016 - Neil's picks (weeks 1 -17) |
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NFL 2016 - Outrights and Specials by Tighty |
Free NFL Tip
Occasional NFL Specials Free tips intended to complement Neil's work through the season
San Diego Chargers at Kansas City Chiefs (Sunday 6pm)
A few basics first. When looking at First touchdown scorer markets we ideally want to see three things:
a) We are backing a player on the home team
b) We are backing a favoured team, preferably a strongly favoured team
c) There is an element to the offense/defense match up that suggests a mismatch in the relative strengths and weaknesses of the sides.
Just to expand on point a), why would we favour the home team player? Whilst its not always the case, away teams will frequently defer if winning the toss and allow the home team to get the ball first. For two reasons a) the crowd is at is loudest at the start of the game (somewhere like Arrowhead, home of the Chiefs this particularly applies) so it can be difficult to run an offense and b) they then get the ball to start the second half when i) you have first chance to put in place the half time adjustments and ii) the crowd can be at its quietest before everyone gets back to their seats.
So why might the Chiefs at home to the Chargers be a game to look at in touchdown markets? Firstly the Chiefs, who reached the second round of the play offs last year are seven point favourites against their divisional rivals who,injury hit in 2015, finished with the third worst record in the NFL.
Looking at potential match-ups, The Chiefs are a reasonably conservative offensive side. Ranked 6th (of 32) in rushing last season and 30th in receiving. Their QB Alex Smith is a game manager who isn't known for producing big plays and the staple of the offense is dink and dunk in the receiving game and power running up front. The arrival of Jeremy Maclin and some recent draft picks at receiver gives some more big play potential but philosophically this is a blue collar offense.
The Chargers on defense ranked 23rd last season, and 27th against the rush. Drafting high back in April they sought to help their defense out by selecting Joey Bosa at the third pick of the draft, but he has held out all summer with a contract disagreement. This is recently resolved but he won't play this game.On the other side of the ball, were the Chargers to get the ball first they go against the Chiefs defense, third ranked in the league last year and a formidable unit.
So turning to players, which Chief should we be looking at? Last season the superstar running back Jamaal Charles went down with his second major ACL injury and was lost for the season. He has been recovering but remained out for most of training camp and this week coach Andy Reid has said that he is not ready to return and will be "limited at best" this week. In Charles' absence last season Charcandrick West took over and before Week 8 Spencer Ware (previously released by the Seahawks) was activated from the Chiefs practice squad. In the second half of the season, backing up West, he came on strongly with 403 yards rushing on 72 attempts and 6 rushing touchdowns. In his two games against the Chargers last year, he rushed for 148 yards on 19 carries and scored two touchdowns.
Ware impressed in training camp and pre-season games. He has also added a receiving element to his game, catching eight passes in three preseason appearances after catching six passes total last season. He's shaping up to be a "three down back" so we should get maximum bang for our buck in terms of the number of snaps he is on the field for. Reading through reports from the Kansas City beat writers, the expectation is that Ware will be hammered at the suspect San Diego defensive front.
First touchdown bets are inevitably high variance. A lot of things need to go right and strike rates can be low as we all know, certainly compared to lower variance options like "anytime touchdown scorer". For first touchdown bets I like to follow the simple rules at the start of this write up to try to ensure we have a few variables in our favour in terms of match-ups and likely game flow. Given those apply here, we'll start the season off as follows:
7 points Spencer Ware First Touchdown scorer Kansas City Chiefs v San Diego Chargers at 6-1 with Bet365
I've run out of time waiting for First touchdown scorer prices to go up across the market (apart from Bet365 and a few smaller firms). You could see some 13/2 or 7/1 in the next 48 hours, but will record for our records at 6/1
It only takes one domino to fall….
A few weeks ago published my annual NFL ante-post column in which I stated
“Last year I was reminded more than any other year that this is a very physical game with enormous injury risks. These are impossible to predict except in the sense that you know they are going to happen across the league”
In the final few weeks of the pre-season since, this has once again been a major issue with implications on several of the suggested bets
Firstly I suggested that the Dallas Cowboys could be the NFL’s highest scoring team at 20-1, highlighting that the running game should be extremely good and that if teams concentrated on stopping that with Romo and Bryant fit again then the prospect of single coverage on the outside could mean that the offense was extremely difficult to stop. Furthermore with the Dallas defense looking both sub-par and suspension hit, the team would have to score highly and shootouts were on the agenda.
I then wrote
“Now of course there is a huge caveat. Romo and Bryant have to remain fit.”
A week later, on an innocuous scramble in a pre-season game in Seattle, Cliff Avril tackled Romo on the third play of the game. Down he went, and out of the game. 24 hours later another back injury was confirmed with anything up to a 10 week absence from the line up as a recovery period
This thrusts 4th round draft pick rookie Dak Prescott into the starting line up this Sunday and notwithstanding impressive performances in pre-season obviously has to affect the chances of the offense firing week in week out that the suggested bet needs. The play-calling will have to be simpler and more predictable. If he were to struggle, the Cowboys would put in Mark Sanchez who they picked up on waivers following his release from the Broncos. A competent enough “bus driver” quarterback and no more, he’d be unlikely to help the bet much
Other points related to the bet still apply. The running game should still be one of the pre-eminent units in the league and the defense still looks sub-standard. Interestingly the price in the “Highest Scoring Team” market is unchanged
Then last week in a midweek practice Vikings QB Teddy Bridgewater went down with a non-contact injury that immediately looked serious. Indeed it was, diagnosed the next day as a tibiofemoral dislocation and ruptured ACL that ended his season and possibly worse than that given the severity of the injury. I made the mistake of looking up "tibiofemoral dislocation", just so you didn't have to. Don't.
Previously I had recommended the Vikings to beat the Packers to the NFC North division title at 2-1. This news led to the Vikings going to 5-1 for the division.
The Vikings, with the prospect of a deep post-season run looking less likely having to roll out a back up at QB for the season in their first year in a new stadium acted quickly. They traded two of next year’s draft picks including their first round pick to the Eagles for QB Sam Bradford (with whom the Vikings offensive co-ordinator has worked previously).
A heavy price to pay for a starting quarterback but probably indicative that the Vikings think they are close to having an extremely good team (offensive skill group players upgraded, terrific looking defense) and their window for success might be quite short (Adrian Peterson is 32). Fortunately we are only concerned with this season and not the effects of the trade longer term, which i would argue are negative, mortgaging the future a touch to win now.
The Vikings price came in again, now 3/1 best and, if the rest of the roster is as advertised (I think it is) and if Bradford is much of a muchness with Bridgewater (which could be argued) we should be going in again.
Over and above these two big pieces of news for our ante-post book (at least last year we waited for the regular season games to get hit by injuries…) there are knock-on effects to the rest of our book.
For example:
- Will the Vikings go back to emphasising the run, making it more likely that Peterson leads the league in rushing?
- What does a Romo less Cowboys mean for Ezekiel Elliott’s usage and rushing stats? Is he durable enough to cope in his rookie season? Does it make him more or less likely to be offensive rookie of the year?
- Romo's injury presumably helps the NY Giants to win the NFC East bet, and we'll have a better idea about that after Sunday's Giants at Cowboys game
In the NFL, it only takes one domino to fall…
Brodders Football Analysis
Sign up to Brodders match analysis and recommended bets here for £50 a month. You are free to cancel at any time. Our 2016-17 Championship and Premier League previews are in the Brodders section for subscribers.
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Euro & other Football by Brodders (monthly) |
- The Euros 2016 for subscribers. Results: +£4,098.30 (betting £10 a point, average bet about £150) +ROI 31.43%
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Please open an account with all those bookmakers on the page on this link that you do not already have an account with using the links provided.
Betting Emporium results
The detailed results page has been updated as have the spreadsheets with the detailed bets. They can be found by clicking RESULTS
£10 per point on every recommended bet since launch in Feb 2013 would be winning £24,581 (as at 11th August 2016)
All bets have an ROI +3.77% and Horse Racing has a ROI of +5.48%
A £4000 bank (see FAQ re bank-roll requirements) betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth £28, 581 a 614% increase
