Weekly Articles "Road to Riches" by Rich 'Tighty' Prew
The Road to Riches Weekend of 7th-8th May
Coming Up this weekend
- Football, a full schedule in the Premier League including Leicester City v Everton and Tottenham v Southampton. The latest Premier League Statistical Analysis write up has been published here
- Racing, a mixed meeting at Haydock. On the flat Nottingham, Ascot, Lingfield and Thirsk. National hunt meetings at Hexham and Warwick
- Tennis, ATP and WTP Madrid Open
- Golf, USPGA Wells Fargo Campionship and on the European Tour Trophee Hassan II in Morocco
- Cricket. IPL 9 group stage games continue
French Tennis Open (Roland Garros) 22nd May - 5th June
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French Tennis Open (Roland Garros) (22nd May - 5th June 2016) |
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Royal Ascot Full Package 14th-18th June
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Royal Ascot (Full Package) 14th - 18th June 2016 |
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Free Tip
Super Rugby Sharks v Hurricanes, Saturday 7th May, Durban, (kick off 2pm SkySports 4)
This is only the fourth home game of the season for the Sharks who beat Los Jaguares 19-15 at Kings Park back in Round 2 but went down to the Crusaders (19-14) and the Lions (24-9) in subsequent home games. They return home after a three match tour of New Zealand which started with a narrow defeat at the Blues (23-18), peaked with a 15-14 win at the Highlanders and ended last week with a 24-22 loss at the table topping Chiefs. Getting at least bonus points (and losing by no more than five points) out of all four games against the NZ sides so far this season, even if only winning one of the games, is some achievement.
The Sharks are currently outside the play-off spots in the South African group. This has been inevitable all season because of a quirk of the frankly baffling new Super Rugby conference system that this year has seen the Stormers and Bulls scheduled against beatable Australian franchises and the Sharks (and Lions) have to play all five New Zealand teams, three away from home. Their schedule eases from here and they need to put a consistent run together to make the post season. Meanwhile in a play-off spot in the Australasian group, the Hurricanes currently have the 3rd best record of the 5 New Zealand teams.
The Hurricanes handed out a 50-17 beating to the Lions in Johannesburg last week, running in 7 tries and conceding 3. They now have 6 wins and 3 defeats but they have won 6 of the last 7 and 5 of those wins were accompanied by bonus points. This though has been the soft part of their schedule, with wins against non-play off contenders. Playing the Sharks in Durban is a completely different proposition to sticking 40-50 points on teams like the Western Force, Jaguares, Kings and Lions with three of the games in Wellington.
This should be a very close game yet the visitors have been installed as 8/11 favourites with the Sharks 6/4. At worst i would have this as a 50-50 game, considering the Sharks have been running all the New Zealand teams close away from home and the Hurricanes lack some of the structure and power of those sides. The Sharks are a very strong defensive team, and will play territory to try to stifle the Hurricanes attacking threat.
I like the Sharks to win this, outright (+4 on the handicap if you prefer)
15 points Sharks to beat the Hurricanes 8/5 William Hill (down to 11/8 is fine elsewhere)
When Sport becomes a soap opera.
The NFL Draft each April is the culmination of a year long process of NFL franchises scouting players about to leave college before selecting talent to restock their rosters ahead of the new season. Over the years the draft itself has become big business, with an industry of analysts opining over the selections both before, during and after the draft. Draft night itself is televised nationally, and now in the UK too
This year's first round last Thursday night was a dramatic one, even by the NFL’s standards. A few weeks ago the offensive tackle Laremy Tunsil was the consensus number one pick, likely to be drafted by the Tennessee Titans to protect their quarterback Marcus Mariota. Then, with an eye on rebuilding they traded the pick for a number of draft selections to the Rams, in need of a star young quarterback and the industry immediately began to speculate about who might Tunsil, with San Diego at 3 the favourite.
On the day of the draft itself, always littered with mis-information and leaks, the suggestion was that the Chargers would draft Ronnie Stanley at the same position ahead of Tunsil. Checking the thin UK betting markets that afternoon, I noted Tunsil was still 1/8 to be the first Offensive tackle drafted
13 minutes before the draft on Tunsil’s Twitter account a video was posted showing a large man with a huge black gas mask over his head with a bong attached to the end. He is seen adjusting a valve on the right side. There is a little cup attached to the bong that appears to contain a substance that is burning. Then there is smoke everywhere before the man takes the mask off his face and smiles. Tunsil admitted in an ESPN interview that the man in the video was him. Companies do video job interviews all the time. This is not what Tunsil had in mind to make a final impression on NFL teams, appearing to be inhaling something he shouldn’t have been inhaling.
He claims his Twitter account was hacked. “We’re going to try to find out who did it,” he said.
Tunsil gets credit because he didn’t try to talk his way out of it and claim it wasn’t him. He was also telling the truth about getting hacked – his Instagram was apparently hacked after the draft as well, showing alleged text message between Tunsil and a college staff member in which the player requested money.
Ultimately, thanks to bad decisions and the ugly side of social media.one man’s pain and frustration played out before a viewing audience of millions as Tunsil was one of thirty players invited by the NFL to attend the draft in Chicago and as each draft pick passed the camera would pan to Tunsil. Eventually Tunsil became the third offensive tackle drafted, by the Miami Dolphins at pick 13
Tunsil was already carrying some baggage coming into this draft but until the Twitter post, he was a top five pick for sure. Tunsil had already forced teams to do extensive background checks. He and his stepfather Lindsey Miller filed domestic violence charges against each other last year that were eventually dropped. He was also suspended the first seven games last season after the NCAA penalised him for receiving improper benefits.
Tunsil is not the first player to drop so far because of pre-draft drug stories. It happened to Warren Sapp in 1995 and it happened to Dan Marino in 1983. They both went on to have Hall of Fame careers
For now according to SportRac, Jared Goff, the No. 1 pick, is projected to receive a contract worth more than $25 million. The deal for a No. 13 pick will be roughly $12 million. Tunsil may indeed be a big success, on talent alone he would be. For him and the Dolphins though given the various situations he is dealing with, the stakes are high.
Brodders Football Analysis
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Euro & other Football by Brodders (monthly) |
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- Long Term Profit - All Brodders bets since January 2014 are currently showing a ROI of +1.59% (over 2000 bets) (at 15th April 2016)
Bookmaker reviews and advice
Getting the best price available is very important for all those who take their betting seriously.
Please open an account with all those bookmakers on the page on this link that you do not already have an account with using the links provided.
Betting Emporium results
The detailed results page has been updated as have the spreadsheets with the detailed bets. They can be found by clicking RESULTS
£10 per point on every recommended bet since launch in Feb 2013 would be winning £13,968.70 (as at 15th April 2016)
All bets have an ROI +2.44% and Horse Racing has an ROI +4.85%
A £4000 bank (see FAQ re bank-roll requirements) betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth £17,968.70 a 349% increase
The Road to Riches: Weekend of 30th April - 1st May
Coming Up this weekend
- Football, a full schedule in the Premier League with Leicester City at Manchester United on Sunday and Tottenham at Chelsea on Monday night. The latest Premier League Statistical Analysis write up has been published here
- Snooker, the final stages of the 2016 World Championship at the Crucible in Sheffield.
- Racing, the first classics of the 2016 flat season with the 1000 and 2000 Guineas at Newmarket. Also flat meetings at Doncaster, Goodwood and Thirsk. Over the jumps at Hexham and Uttoxeter.
- Tennis, the BMW Open in Munich, the ATP Estoril Open in Portugal and the ATP Istanbul Open in Turkey
- Golf, on the European Tour the Volvo China Open and on the USPGA Tour the Zurich Classic of New Orleans at TPC Louisiana
- Formula One, the Russian Grand Prix at Sochi
- Cricket. IPL 9 group stage games continue
Premier League Darts (Feb 4th - May 19th 2016)
Weekly coverage by Nigel Seeley for the 2016 Premier League Darts.
The package costs £50. Sign Up here
French Tennis Open (Roland Garros) (22nd May - 5th June 2016)
Coverage by Nigel Seeley with outright previews as well as all write ups and match analysis
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Free Tip by Neil Channing:
The 1000 Guineas at Newmarket, 3.40pm Sunday
I decided I'd just look at Sunday's 1,000 Guineas this week. The 2,000 Guineas is certainly an interesting race and there are opportunities to have a +ev bet as it has a perfect "bad" each-way shape...a short-priced favourite that means anything you bet each-way at 1/4 odds gives you a really good place part of your bet.
Rather than get you all to have your accounts restricted I'll focus on trying to find a big-priced winner that hopefully the bookies will pay us while still smiling.
The favourite in the 1,000 Guineas is also trained by Aiden O'Brien. This one was impressive in winning the fillies mile and she seems to go on any ground and will stay. A worthy favourite but I'm not a fan of betting fillies at short prices when these animals are all developing at different rates and we are really guessing at which ones will have improved most.
Lumiere ran well in the Lowther Stakes and was impressive in the Chevely Park but she is a free-running filly who we've only seen over six furlongs and for me she'd be a big doubt to get home, definitely not an each-way bet and probably a decent place lay.
Ballydoyle was beaten just 3/4 length by her stablemate Minding over seven furlongs when she was 5/4 favourite. I can see the argument for saying the horses ought to be close again and she is solid each-way but I can't make a great case for her beating the favourite. she'd be a good bet at evens in a match with Lumiere.
Epsom Icon, Sharja Queen, Fireglow, Aljazzi and Blue Bayou are really not good enough to win at this class so I'll pass on them and that leaves me with eight possible horses to bet each-way. I'll take them one by one...
Midweek is trained by a woman I have the utmost respect for but the horse is so inexperienced and it's actual form is nowhere near good enough. Certainly wouldn't make for a good place bet.
Turret Rocks is held by Ballydoyle on her form in the Marcel Boussac and I can't see an excuse for her to reverse.
Illuminate was beaten by Lumiere in the Cheveley Park and then she ran poorly in the Breeders Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf. She had a lot of runs last year and I don't fancy her to improve enough.
Alice Springs is really the third string for Aiden O'Brien. She was beaten in the trial at Leopardstown and she doesn't look up to this.
The winner of that trial was Jet Setting but it was a heavy ground trial for a filly who was winning a median auction maiden the time before. I just don't get excited by her.
Nathra was 2nd to Minding in the Fillies Mile and she really franked the form by winning well in the Nell Gwyn over seven furlongs on this course. I think the form is very solid and I'm sure she'll run a race it's just the price that isn't that tempting.
I'm going to focus instead on the two fillies that were beaten in the Nell Gwynn. We know that act on the course, they both ran well there and they both appear to want this extra furlong and be happy on any ground. Most importantly though we get pretty decent prices.
Robanne is trained by William Knight who is having a good season and the filly has run three times. She was green when she won her maiden a little unexpectedly and then she was beaten a length and a half into 3rd in the Oh So Sharp Stakes looking like she wanted further. That was the impression I got again when she was 3rd behind Nathra in the Nell Gwynn. Looks sure to be running on and in the thick of it at the business end.
Mix and Mingle had a quiet run followed by a maiden win at even money followed by a valuable nursery win at Newbury as a two-year old. She then ran really well in the Nell Gwynn, coming from off the pace and looking like she wanted further. I suspect she might have the most improvement in her of the three from that race and I'll have a little more on her.
There is just a chance that a couple of bookies offer four places if we wait until Sunday but I still like the 1/4 odds with a shortish favourite and a few I can rule out even though we get just three places. I'm going to take the big prices now.
I'm having 4 Points each-way Robanne at 33/1 1/4 123 with Ladbrokes, Betfred, SkyBet and Bet365.
I'm having 5 Points each-way Mix and Mingle at 33/1 1/4 123 with Ladbrokes and Betfred (not struggling Hills who are clawing back the Cheltenham money by offering 1/5th odds).
When nothing seems to go your way....
Losing runs are a fact of everyone’s betting life and we have to come to terms with them. We’ve all been there and strategies for coping with downswings are essential both financially and emotionally.
Compared to when i first started betting experience has given me a more accepting attitude to the (inevitable) losing runs and reduced some of the poor strategies i was following.
1) Do your Due Diligence Beforehand
* Ensure that the edge of any strategy you are using has been demonstrated over a statistically significant number of bets before backing selections.
* Make sure that the bank you are using is large enough to more than weather the longest losing run you are likely to encounter. This is easy to calculate from your own personal ROI over the sports and types of bets you prefer..
* Never bet with money you cannot afford to lose. A losing run will have a far greater impact upon your psyche if you are relying on that money for something else.
* Keep your betting money entirely separate from your every day money.
* Lean towards strategies that suit your psychology. If you know you are the type of person who is likely to kick the cat and smash the television after half a dozen losers, concentrate your efforts on high strike rate strategies that are less likely to test you.
2) When the Losing Run Hits
* One professional identified that the fifteen minutes after a poorly judged bet or moment of misfortune is the most dangerous time for all punters. This is the time when we are all at risk of getting heated and all reasoning and rationale goes flying out the window as we seek to recoup the losses.
* Avoid time frames in betting, without daily targets or amounts to be won in a certain time period. Instead analyse results calmly away from the action dispassionately, away from the action
* Expect a losing run and how bad it is likely to get and keep detailed records of placed bets. When a losing run occurs you can analyse and revist past losing runs and only start to worry if you start to significanly exceed your longest losing run for a particular sport or strategy. There are a number of reasons for keeping accurate records but this is the most important of them
* Don't be afraid to stop. If you are not feeling confident that you are apply your methods consistently, just take a break. There is always the nagging fear that you will miss a winner that turns it all around but there will always, in the big picture, be a winner down the line.
* Realise that it is human nature to take recent events and extrapolate them into the future. This works both ways. If you’re on a winning streak, you are likely to start calculating future profits based on an abnormal run of results and vice versa. Always look at the bigger picture.
Brodders Football Analysis
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Euro & other Football by Brodders (monthly) |
- Betting £10 a point would be showing a profit of + £4096.70
- Long Term Profit - All Brodders bets since January 2014 are currently showing a ROI of +1.59% (over 2000 bets) (at 15th April 2016)
Bookmaker reviews and advice
Getting the best price available is very important for all those who take their betting seriously.
Please open an account with all those bookmakers on the page on this link that you do not already have an account with using the links provided.
Betting Emporium results
The detailed results page has been updated as have the spreadsheets with the detailed bets. They can be found by clicking RESULTS
£10 per point on every recommended bet since launch in Feb 2013 would be winning £13,968.70 (as at 15th April 2016)
All bets have an ROI +2.44% and Horse Racing has an ROI +4.85%
A £4000 bank (see FAQ re bank-roll requirements) betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth £17,968.70 a 349% increase
The Road to Riches: Weekend of 23rd-24th April
Coming Up this weekend
- Football, a full schedule in the Premier League including Leicester v Swansea and Tottenham v West Brom as the title race intensifies and the FA Cup Semi Finals at Wembley. The latest Premier League Statistical Analysis write up has been published here
- Snooker, the 2016 World Championships continue at the Crucible in Sheffield
- Racing, the new flat season continues with meetings at Doncaster, Haydock, Ripon and Leicester with the end of the national hunt season at Sandown
- Tennis, ATP Barcelona and the ATP Nastase Tiriac Trophy in Bucharest
- Golf, USPGA The Valero Open at TPC San Antonio in Texas and on the European Tour the Shenzhen International in China
- Cricket. IPL 9 group stage games continue
- Rugby Union, European Champions Cup Semi-Finals
Premier League Darts (Feb 4th - May 19th 2016)
Weekly coverage by Nigel Seeley for the 2016 Premier League Darts.
The package costs £50. Sign Up here
French Tennis Open (Roland Garros) (22nd May - 5th June 2016)
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Free Tip by Neil Channing : The Bet365 Gold Cup Sandown, Saturday 4.10pm
The last day of the season should be pretty amazing and they'll be a lot of talk about Nicholls vs Mullins and the chance to see Richard Johnson finally getting his well-deserved title. For us though the most exciting thing is that some firms are giving five places in the race I still think of as the Whitbread.
I'm going to assume the going will get a bit quicker over the next 24 hours and I won't be focussing on horses that want a bit of cut in the ground like Bishops Road. I'll also avoid the beaten Grand National horses like Saint Are, Le Reve, The Druids Nephew, Hadrians Approach, Just a Par and Sir De Champs as it's so hard to peak again so soon for a big race, especially as that one was a really gruelling slog this year.
Theatre Guide is another one I'll rule out as he seems to have had a really long year. Measureofmydreams fell pretty early in the Scottish National so he ought to be fresh but he is another that would want softer ground. Henri Parry Morgan was a little unlucky to run into such a well-ridden opponent in Native River who jumped brilliantly that day but he is another that has had a long season and I'll avoid him.
I like the three of the sub-25/1 shots that I haven't mentioned so far.
Southfield Theatre is a horse that can definitely win. Paul Nicholls has kept the horse fresh for this after he was brought down in a handicap chase at the festival. He goes on any ground but there is a bit of a doubt about him staying this marathon trip and so at this price I'll reluctantly pass.
Regular readers know I am a huge fan of the Neil Mullholland stable and I can't really split his two here. The Young Master will be ridden by Sam Waley Cohen which isn't a massive plus but I don't see it as a negative either. The horse was dropped in the weights for a great run to be 3rd at the Festival and this one looked like he was staying on at the end. I can't see this one being out of contention here and I have to have a bet.
Carole's Destrier possibly found things happening a little quick at Cheltenham and he would certainly not mind a bit of rain, but I do think that this horse is way better when he goes right handed and he likes it here very much. The price is a bit more attractive so I'll make him a slightly bigger bet.
I'm having 6 Points each-way The Young Master at 8/1 1/4 12345 with Bet365 (it's 9/1 with Betfair Sportbook if you are one of the few that can get on but I'd always take a point lower to get an extra place where I can).
I'm having 7 Points each-way Carole’s Destrier at 10/1 1/4 12345 with Bet365 and Betfair Sportsbook
A look at the EU Referendum and Markets
There are just over 60 days to go until the EU Referendum on 23rd June answering the question "Should the United Kingdom remain a member of the European Union or leave the European Union?”
Eligible people can register to vote by midnight on Tuesday 7 June if they have not already done so.
The Betting Emporium team have discussed some potential betting opportunities already, and this is to set the scene for the next couple of months and given one early recommendation.
On the Leave side, “Vote Leave” won official designation over UKIP backed “Grassroots out”. On the other side, the decision was much more straightforward and “Britain Stronger in Europe” is the official Remain campaign. There are the perks that come with the official designation, with more funding, campaign broadcasts, free distribution of information to voters etc.
The government’s official position is for remaining in the EU and leaflets explaining why have been mailed to every household. The Conservative party is split on the issue, with several prominent members of Cameron’s cabinet backing Brexit. Meanwhile, most of the Labour party supports staying in, and Labour votes are one of the key groups the remain side needs to ensure victory given the euro-sceptism of the Tory rank and file.
Telephone polling points to a Remain lead. Online polls suggest a much closer contest, with several even giving Leave a slight edge. At the time of writing the latest phone poll (Comres) has 45-38-17 Remain/Leave/Don’t know whilst the latest Online poll (You Gov) has 40-39-21. This week four phone polls showed a widening Remain lead: ComRes 7% ICM 7% ORB 9%, IPSOS-Mori 10% making six successive polls to report moves to remain compared with their last surveys. It is postulated that the remain leaflet campaign has been in part behind the hardening of Remain numbers in recent surveys.
John Curtice, the Strathclyde University professor who oversaw last year’s accurate election exit poll, has recently said
"Some of the polls are definitely wrong. Until the divergence between online and telephone polls is explained, we are in a cloud of uncertainty and people should absolutely look at the polls sceptically."
There have been over 75 EU referendum polls since the beginning of September 2015. Three polls in April said that one in four British people did not know how they would vote and the current don't know block is around 15% taking the aggregate from all polls
The Betting Markets
In a Betfair market with over £6m matched, Remain is currently trading at 1.44 and Leave at 3.2 with fixed odds markets at 2/5 Remain 2/1 Leave. The range of probabilities for Remain in five leading crowd aggregation sites are 62-70%. The aggregation sites such as Altinis take information from exchanges and markets and combine it with polling forecasts to obtain crowd wisdom and assign probabilities to the outcomes.
Given the current lead in phone polling and the natural bias of the electorate against change as well as the obvious differences in organisation between the two camps, Remain looks to be a justifiable favourite.
Vote Share markets may offer more potential. Sporting Index have the line for Remain between 53-54% which appears consistent with an estimated probability of a win for ‘Remain’ at 2 in 3. A few bookmakers are currently offering “Remain Vote Percentage” Markets and 50-55% is 3.4 on Betfair and 1.54 over 52.5% 11/4.
Betfair also offers a third market, on referendum turn-out with 60-65% a 4.1 favourite ahead of 55-60% at 5.0. The latest ORB poll shows those who want the UK to remain in the EU are becoming more motivated to vote. This research shows that forecast turnout overall is up three points on their forecast to 67% but this is a market that is difficult to get a handle on at this stage.
Overall the view here is that Remain will continue to progress in polls, that a majority of the "don't knows" will break in favour of remain and that Corbyn's well received entry into the campaign will motivate Labour to come out and vote. As an alternative to taking 2/5 remain (shortening to 1/3 on Obama developments in the last 24 hours) we'd consider 55-60% Remain as looking interesting in the region of 4.8 to 5.2 on the exchange.
15 points Remain Vote Share 55-60% 4.8 Betfair
Brodders Football Analysis
Sign up to Brodders match analysis and recommended bets here for £50 a month. You are free to cancel at any time.
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Euro & other Football by Brodders (monthly) |
- Betting £10 a point would be showing a profit of + £4096.70
- Long Term Profit - All Brodders bets since January 2014 are currently showing a ROI of +1.59% (over 2000 bets) (at 15th April 2016)
Bookmaker reviews and advice
Getting the best price available is very important for all those who take their betting seriously.
Please open an account with all those bookmakers on the page on this link that you do not already have an account with using the links provided.
Betting Emporium results
The detailed results page has been updated as have the spreadsheets with the detailed bets. They can be found by clicking RESULTS
£10 per point on every recommended bet since launch in Feb 2013 would be winning £13,968.70 (as at 15th April 2016)
All bets have an ROI +2.44% and Horse Racing has an ROI +4.85%
A £4000 bank (see FAQ re bank-roll requirements) betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth £17,968.70 a 349% increase
The Road to Riches: Weekend of 16th-17th April
Coming Up this weekend
- Football, a full schedule in the Premier League including Leicester City v West Ham United on Sunday.. The latest Premier League Statistical Analysis write up has been published here
- Formula One, the Chinese Grand Prix
- Snooker, the 2016 World Championships begin at the Crucible in Sheffield
- Racing, the new flat season continues with meetings at Newbury, Thirsk, Nottingham and Wolverhampton with national hunt meetings at Ayr and Bangor
- Tennis, the clay court season moves to Europe with ATP Monaco, and Fed Cup World Group semi-finals
- Golf, the RBC Heritage on the USPGA and on the European Tour the Real Club Valderrama Open in Spain
- Cricket. IPL 9 group stage games continue
Premier League Darts (Feb 4th - May 19th 2016)
Weekly coverage by Nigel Seeley for the 2016 Premier League Darts.
The package costs £50. Sign Up here
French Tennis Open (Roland Garros) (22nd May - 5th June 2016)
Coverage by Nigel Seeley with outright previews as well as all write ups and match analysis
The package costs £50 Sign Up here
Free Tip
The world snooker championship starts on Saturday and runs until May 2nd, being played at the Crucible in Sheffield for a 40th consecutive year, the tenth and final ranking event of the 2015-2016 season. It was won last year by 33-1 outsider Stuart Bingham.
During the current season there have been 13 different tournament event winners and 7 different winners of the 9 ranking events and this is the result of a number of factors, all related to the overhaul of the game since Barry Hearn took charge of the sport five years ago. Most notably these include all matches until the very late stages of all tournaments bar the Worlds being played over a much shorter format, frequently the best of seven frames.Whilst the game is frequently said to lack personalities it is probably deeper than ever in terms of the pool of talent and overall standard outside the top 16 and the variance of results over short format matches has meant a real spread of winners.
The format of the World Championships is unchanged, with best of 19 matches in the first round all the way up to best of 35 in the final. This is anachronistic in the modern snooker era. The move made two years ago to completely flatten the qualifying process for the Crucible means all qualifiers whether ranked 17 or 128 have to play three 19 frame matches in the week before the last 32 to reach the Crucible. As we have seen in 2014 and 2015 the 16 players who reach the Crucible to play the top 16 seeds are going to be attuned to 19 frame tournament snooker that the seeds haven’t played all season except for finals.
Let’s start with the draw where the seeds in each quarter are:
First Quarter
Stuart Bingham (defending champion installed as number 1 seed),John Higgins,Stephen Maguire,Ricky Walden
Second Quarter
Neil Robertson,Judd Trump,Mark Williams,Martin Gould
Third Quarter
Ronnie O’Sullivan,Shaun Murphy,Barry Hawkins,Marco Fu
Fourth Quarter
Mark Selby,Mark Allen,Joe Perry,Michael White
And the current outright market as follows:
O’Sullivan 15-8
Robertson 6-1
Trump 7-1
Selby 10-1
Murphy 14-1
Higgins 20-1
Ding 22-1
Allen 25-1
Bingham 33-1
Bar 50-1
Each way terms are ½ 1-2.
Let’s marry up draw and prices and try and chart a way to finding some value. First off Ronnie O’Sullivan who is obviously the class of the field and always going to be a short-priced favourite no matter how few events he plays during the year. He hasn’t got a straightforward draw though, having to beat Hawkins and then last year's finalist Murphy to make the semis. Murphy in particular, provisionally world ranked number four after his recent win in the World Grand Prix is potentially a very tough quarter-final. Neither strike me as great value given the draw.
In the second quarter Robertson and Trump are second and third favourites and seeded to meet in the quarter-finals, a match for which Robertson would be a marginal favourite against the new China Open champion. Both of the top ranked qualifiers Liang Wenbo and Ding were drawn into this quarter, which makes it tougher than it already was.
In the bottom quarter Mark Selby has two semi-finals in ten major tournaments this season and 10-1 reflects some doubts about form and his withdrawal from the last two events for undisclosed personal reasons. He too has an interesting route to the later stages as although Mark Allen typically produces more results overseas than at home, he is a dangerous opponent.
That leaves the top quarter, with Stuart Bingham who has played a huge schedule all season, 14 events worldwide without too much form, one final and a couple of semis to his name in amongst a lot of early exits. He has to be vulnerable here. In the same quarter we find the inconsistent Stephen Maguire who won a couple of matches in the last tournament to retain his seeding for this, Ricky Walden and John Higgins. This, as the outright odds imply with Higgins the shortest at 18-1 for the title, looks much the weakest quarter. I wouldn't be surprised if qualifiers Ali Carter and Alan McManus beat Bingham and Maguire respectively in the top part of this quarter in the first round.
Higgins has won two titles this season following on from his Welsh Open success earlier in 2015 and has actually won the most prize money on the one year rolling ranking list . He’s won this title four times, since when he's been banned and went through several seasons of poor form before his resurgence. Whilst I wouldn't argue that he is back to his best, he might not need to be to win this quarter. Walden was semi-finalist here three years ago, and has two finals in the last three months beating Higgins 6-5 in a semi-final before losing to Trump in China and losing to Allen in the PTC final at Manchester.
With Bingham being the top seed by virtue of his win last year this really opens up this quarter for someone to go deep into the second week. Higgins and Ricky Walden are seeded to meet in the second round and I would have either favourite to beat Bingham/Maguire/Carter/McManus in the last 8. Higgins is 20-1 and Walden 50-1 in a place and I peg one of them to get to the semis. Either would then be an underdog to Robertson or Trump but not a forlorn hope that they could beat either.
The spread of talent beyond Ronnie in the sport is very broad, and although he is brilliant, he's only won twice out of the eleven times he's gone to the crucible as favourite (most recently didn't win as favourite in 2014 or 2015). This year he has his toughest draw for many a year. Let's take on Ronnie with players drawn in the right quarter to have a run, at prices far better value than a few of the names above them in the betting given the shape of the draw. Four of the top six have to play each other before playing anyone from the top quarter.
5 points each way John Higgins to win the 2016 World Snooker Championsip 20-1 Sportingbet, PaddyPower (18/1 generally)
(BetfairSportsbook are at 22-1 for those who can, but we'll record at 20-1)
3 points each way Ricky Walden to win the 2016 World Snooker Championship 40-1 Bet365, Sportingbet, Ladbrokes, Coral
(Betfred are 50-1, but well record at the 40-1 which is more widely available)
Momentum in sport, Fact or Myth
"Having won five in a row, they've really got momentum”. “They haven’t won since Christmas, their form is terrible”. They've got great momentum coming into the final games of the season". These were phrases I heard with an ear on Messrs Stelling, Merson, Le Tissier et al on last weekend's Soccer Saturday.
Throughout sport we are aware of winning streaks, and in football for example strikers scoring goals in successive games and defences keeping rows of clean sheets. I have heard it said a lot about my team this season, Leicester City (yes, I am still waiting for that reversion to the mean ) Momentum has become a word synonymous with Leicester’s season having now taken 93 points in the last calendar year 18 more than their nearest rivals. The “great escape” last season, the great start this, Vardy scoring in eleven games in a row, five 1-0 wins in a row, six clean sheets in a row all show “Momentum” but also the intangible effect of confidence.
We are told that winning is a habit; that confidence is important and if you win you are likely to continue winning. This though fits our desire to find patterns in sport often to fit our narrative as fans and bettors (and the media certainly does it) rather than conclusive proof that teams and players have such momentum.
In 1985 psychologist Tomas Gilovich attempted to disprove the notion of the "hot hand” in basketball. The implication of the "hot hand" is that someone who has hit a basket with their last shot is more likely to hit with their next one: As he began his study 90% of fans surveyed agreed that a player has "a better chance of making a shot after having just made his last two or three shots than he does after having just missed his last two or three shots". However Gilovich found that it was not true. Looking at the Philadelphia 76ers over a season, he found that players who had hit their last 1-3 shots were no more likely to hit their next than players who had missed their last 1-3 shots in a row. In fact, they were slightly less likely. Similar results have been found for winning and losing streaks in sport.
In football the economists Dobson and Goddard looked at every English league match between 1970 and 2009 (over 80,000 games) to see if longer winning, unbeaten and losing runs were observed more often than would be expected by chance. After accounting for team and opposition strength they reached the conclusion that sequences of wins and losses end sooner than expected.
Statistical proof of "momentum" in sport is hard to come by. If your team is going through a losing patch they're just as likely to win the next game as they are when on a nine-game winning streak. Remember it also when the pundit on Match of the Day, after previously confidently predicting a sixth win on the bounce for Leicester and watching them lose unexpectedly to West Ham United this coming Sunday, says "Well, they were due a defeat". No, they weren't. It’s an independent event.
People building narratives around these “patterns” of independent events via natural cognitive biases are how bookmakers make money. Randomness is a more compelling explanation.
Brodders Football Analysis
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Euro & other Football by Brodders (monthly) |
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The detailed results page has been updated as have the spreadsheets with the detailed bets. They can be found by clicking RESULTS
£10 per point on every recommended bet since launch in Feb 2013 would be winning £13,968.70 (as at 15th April 2016)
All bets have an ROI +2.44% and Horse Racing has an ROI +4.85%
A £4000 bank (see FAQ re bank-roll requirements) betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth £17,968.70 a 349% increase
The Road to Riches, Weekend of 9th-10th April
Coming Up this weekend
- Football, a full schedule in the Premier League including Tottenham v Manchester United. The latest Premier League Statistical Analysis write up has been published here
- Golf, The Masters at Augusta, see coverage here
- Racing, The Grand National at Aintree see coverage here, the highlight of a programme including national hunt meetings at Chepstow and Sedgefield, with Lingfield and Wolverhampton on the all-weather
- Tennis, the start of the clay court season with ATPs Houston and Morocco.
- Rugby Union, the European Champions Cup Quarter Finals.
- Cricket.The start of the domestic English season with County Championship games. The beginning of IPL 9 in India.
Aintree Grand National Festival 7th-9th April 2016
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Aintree Grand National Saturday 9th April 2016 |
All of Neil's write ups and analysis and details of all the bets that we are having at Aintree tomorrow
Premier League Darts (Feb 4th - May 19th 2016)
Weekly coverage by Nigel Seeley for the 2016 Premier League Darts.
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Free Tip The 2016 Indian Premier League
Following hard on the heels of the World T20 comes the ninth season of the IPL. The season will have two new teams which will replace Chennai Super Kings and Rajasthan Royals which are suspended for two years (owners spot fixing and match betting, no less) up to 2017. Two new franchise-based teams, Gujarat Lions and Rising Pune Supergiants have been added for two years. Both were allowed to choose five players who represented CSK or RR in 2015.
In all there will be 60 matches in IPL 2016 across ten venues which include 56 Group Stage Matches and 4 Play-off Matches with the final in Mumbai. Squads were drafted first and then added to in an auction process back in March.
The first game is in Mumbai tomorrow, Mumbai v Pune, and the top 4 of 8 teams make the play-off stages after all the teams play each other twice in a group phase. For each macth the teams are allowed to play 4 overseas players
Looking at each in turn
Rising Pune Supergiants – An intimidating batting line-up (Rahane, KP, Du Plessis, Steve Smith etc) with weaker bowling resources. Captained by MS Dhoni
Gujarat Lions - Strong all-rounders (Bravo, Faulkner, Jadeja) with Finch and McCullum up top, captained by Raina as they cherry picked star names from the banned franchises. Good fast bowling options, not a lot of spin in the squad
Royal Challengers Bangalore - The best top four in the business (Gayle, Watson, Kohli and ABDV). Unless Starc and Badree are fit they might have to make a lot of runs to win games as the bowling line up lacks similar firepower.
Kolkata Knight Riders - A no-frills outfit with proven T20 performers including overseas players Shakib, Andre Russell and John Hastings and a potential match-winner in Sunil Narine as long as his remodelled action doesn't see him decline. Twice winners of the IPL in the last four years KKR addressed fast bowling in the auction, a previous weakness
Kings XI Punjab – A team reliant on two overseas batsmen: Maxwell and Miller. The domestic roster is comparatively weak following the side being the lowest spenders at the march auction.
Delhi Daredevils - Light on proven match-winners and superstar power, particularly in the batting line-up which relies on domestic batsmen. Captained by JP Duminy, the bowling line up is vastly experienced including Zaheer Khan and Imran Tahir , while their batting counterparts are young. Including Quinton de Kock all six are 25 or under. Overall they look to be one of the weaker franchises
Mumbai Indians – Defending champions. No obvious weaknesses, strong overseas strength (including Jos Buttler) and lots of options for each position through the squad. Very likely to make the play-offs
Sunrisers Hyderabad - Dhawan, Warner and Williamson represent a terrific top three but that strength isn’t matched down the order. In particular the team lacks quality spinners.
Best odds are as follows:
RC Bangalore 100/30
Mumbai Indians 5/1
Rising Pune 5/1
Kolkota KR 15/2
Gujarat Lions 8/1
Hyderabad Sunrisers 10/1
Kings XI Punjab 12/1
Delhi Daredevils 14/1
Realistically the winner is going to come from the top four sides here, they look to have the advantage in depth and overseas talent and the betting market skews towards the teams with the biggest names, Bangalore (Gayle and Kohli), Mumbai (defending champions) and Pune (Dhoni).
Bangalore are priced because of their star batting power but look short elsewhere in the squad and the price doesn’t offer much value. Mumbai look very strong but with home games on the highest scoring ground in India home advantage is questionable. Rising Pune are a new squad that may take time to gel.
My idea of value is Kolkota Knight Riders at 7/1, a settled team without the stars but with a home advantage due to the often difficult/dry conditions at Eden Gardens as we saw in the World T20 and one of the best spin attacks in the competition to win them home games and get them to the play offs, at which point we'd have a live bet over a few short format games. To my mind they and Mumbai are the most reliable prosepcts, yet KKR are pegged only as fourth favourites.
Bet365 are alone in offering half odds top two before the competition starts (third odds everywhere else, including the 17/2 at Sportingbet)
6 points each way Kolkota Knight Riders 2016 IPL 7-1 Bet365 (1/2 1,2)
The 2016 English cricket season
The domestic cricket season starts this weekend with County Championship games across the country, immediately following England’s run to the final of the ICC World T20 in India where only four successive sixes at the start of the final over prevented a tournament win for a talented emerging side.
This summer England play seven tests, ten ODI’s and two T20i’s against Sri Lanka and Pakistan starting towards the end of May in a more prosaic set of games before heading off on tour to Bangladesh and India next winter.
For the domestic game, change is a constant as the ECB struggles to find an effective role for county cricket in the modern era. 2016 in some ways represents a holding pattern ahead of what are likely to be sweeping changes from 2017onwards. For the County Championship, the there will not be a mandatory toss for games. The away captain will decide whether to bowl or not, as the ECB attempts to ensure decent pitches (and long term promote spin bowling).
"The visiting captain will be offered the opportunity of bowling first. If he declines, the toss will take place as normal. But if he accepts, there will be no toss."
The home team cannot now risk preparing bowler friendly pitches. In addition to the risk of being stuck in by an away captain there are now swingeing penalties for preparing unfit pitches including forfeitng games. All this points to good batting pitches and long seasons ahead for bowling county Pros!
Within the domestic game there is quite the power tussle. Longer term, City based franchise cricket is being considered for the T20 from 2020 onwards (at the end of the current SkySports broadcast deal) On the one hand the combined debts of the 18 counties, estimated at close to £200m, will not be solved just by increasing attendances and a new Twenty20 league remains the most likely method of giving the county game a commercial value of its own. On the other the counties themselves are hugely resistant to losing their identity
Meanwhile the championship will be re-organised into two divisions with eight in the first and ten in the second from 2017. Teams in the top division would play each other home and away but not in the second. T20 cricket will also be played in a mid-summer block. Players and coaches have complained of a confused structure caused by playing too much cricket that sees teams having to switch from Twenty20 to four day cricket.
Back to the 2016 County Championship and Yorkshire are hoping to complete a hat-trick of titles. The promotion of Surrey and Lancashire means that eight of the nine counties with Test grounds are now in Division One, the most since the introduction of two tiers in 2000 and it looks to be an extremely competitive division this year. Within a nine team division the Championship has often had a couple of teams making up the numbers, there being a big gap in resources between the two divisions. Whereas previously teams like Derbyshire or Worcestershire had a sole aim, to stay up, well funded counties like Surrey and Lancashire are aiming to progress towards winning the title in the near future.
County championship prices this season are as follows:
Yorkshire 13/8
Notts 13/2
Warwickshire 13/2
Middlesex 8/1
Surrey 9/1
Durham 12/1
Lancs 16/1
Hampshire 20/1
Somerset 20/1
Each way terms are a fifth top three.
Warwickshire have in recent seasons struggled for runs at times but now they have got Ian Bell and Jonathan Trott, possibly for most of the season if Bell doesn’t make it back into the national side. You can probably pencil those two in for 1,000 runs each. Looking at their line up in warm ups (Chopra, Westwood, Bell, Trott, Hain, Ambrose, Woakes, Clarke, Barker, Rankin, Wright) it looks extremely strong especially when you consider that there are three potential match-winning spinners (Jeetan Patel, Javid and Poysden) in reserve for when pitches are drier.
Last season’s runners-up Middlesex are a very strong bowling side and Nottinghamshire again look competitive. Yorkshire’s own resources will once again hinge on the demands of England, with six players missing chunks of last season because of call-ups and their winter recruit all-rounder David Willey is a key fixture in England's white-ball game but such is their strength in depth that a high finish is once again likely. Hampshire, Somerset and Durham are likely to struggle, whilst Surrey and Lancashire will be looking to establish themselves in the division first and foremost .
For those wanting to tuck away a season long bet Warwickshire each way (three places) at 13-2 (Ladbrokes) should go very close as a value alternative to a short-priced favourite. They'd be very disappointed to finish outside the top three this season.
Brodders Football Analysis
Sign up to Brodders match analysis and recommended bets here for £50 a month. You are free to cancel at any time.
|
Euro & other Football by Brodders (monthly) |
- Betting £10 a point would be showing a profit of + £4126.00
- Long Term Profit - All Brodders bets since January 2014 are currently showing a ROI of +1.65% (over 1900 bets) (at 21st March 2016)
Bookmaker reviews and advice
Getting the best price available is very important for all those who take their betting seriously.
Please open an account with all those bookmakers on the page on this link that you do not already have an account with using the links provided.
Betting Emporium results
The detailed results page has been updated as have the spreadsheets with the detailed bets. They can be found by clicking RESULTS
£10 per point on every recommended bet since launch in Feb 2013 would be winning £11,002.23 (as at 21st March 2016)
All bets have an ROI +1.98% and Horse Racing has an ROI +6.71%
A £4000 bank (see FAQ re bank-roll requirements) betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth £15,002.23 a 275% increase
