Weekly Articles "Road to Riches" by Rich 'Tighty' Prew
The Road to Riches: Weekend 1st-2nd November
Posted on 27 Oct 2014 11:14 in
Weekly Articles "Road to Riches" by Rich 'Tighty' Prew
Coming Up this weekend
- It is NFL Week 9. After his Thursday night NFL winner, for all Neil's Sunday analysis and selections (including Monday night football) £25 Sign Up Here
- The Premier League continues with the Manchester Derby on Sunday lunchtime a feature. As well as his usual weekly selections, this week Stuart Doyle has written some new Premier league Ante-post tips here
- The US Grand Prix in Austin, Texas this weekend. The third last race of the season with the drivers championship being fought over by the two Mercedes drivers
- Racing includes the Breeders Cup at Santa Anita (see below for Neil Channing's thoughts) and in the UK, Newmarket on the flat and Ascot, Wetherby and Ayr over jumps
- In Golf the European tour heads to China for the BMW Masters.
- In Tennis the ATP BNP Paribas Masters, Paris and the WTA Qatar Airways Tournament of Champions, Sofia conclude
- In Rugby Union the southern hemisphere sides are beginning their autumn tours and the Barbarians play Australia on Saturday afternoon
Free Tip of the Week
The Road to Riches features regular free tips from Betting Emporium writers. Today Neil Channing looks at one of tonight's Breeders Cup Races:
"The race I like at the Breeders Cup tonight is the Filly and Mare Turf at 7.43 pm. Generally when I'm looking for bets on the horses the two things I focus on most are good each-way terms in uncompetitive races and favourites that I want to oppose.
In this one many firms offer 1/4 123 as they have decided to offer that concession throughout the meeting. It's not a massive help in a lot of these wide-open races but in this one there is a shortish-priced favourite and just eleven runners and the terms are very favourable.
The main reason I like this race though is that the favourite just seems like a totally crazy price. Dank won this race last year and she is trained by Sir Michael Stoute and ridden by the best jockey in the world Ryan Moore. This one has managed to races in the year and on both of those she has been very disappointing. Her whole training regime has been compromised by foot and leg troubles. I don't think I'd run to back her at 5/1 so at 2/1 I think you'd have to be insane.
Given that thought you'll be OK betting many of the fancied runners each-way but my choice just looks way more solid than the others.
Stephanie's Kitten is drawn wide but as a hold up horse all that will do is ensure we get a bigger price than we ought to. This is a Grade 1 winner who stays well and goes on the surface. I can't see her being out of the frame and I think the 1/4 123 makes her a great bet.
I'm having 12 Points each-way Stephanie's Kitten at 11/2 1/4 123 with William Hill. "
Bookmaker reviews and advice
Getting the best price available is very important for all those who take their betting seriously.
Please open an account with all those bookmakers on the page on this link that you do not already have an account with using the links provided.
The terms “sharp” and “square” are two of the most commonly used words in a bettor’s vocabulary particularly in the US. Pros versus the Public is another way of expressing it. The underlying assumption, based on the very definition of the two words, is that a sharp opinion is more accurate than a square opinion. In other words, the sharp side (or number) is considered to be more successful against the spread than the square side. Many bettors attempt to identify sharp versus square sides and these days some books will identify these for you as part of their social media marketing exercises.
However one way for a novice bettor to help determine sharp versus square is to analyse line movements and bet percentages. In general, a bookmaker wants to receive roughly the same amount of action on both sides of a game. Thus, when significant amounts of money are wagered on a particular side, the line will tend to move in that direction. In many cases, however, the line will remain stagnant or even sometimes move in the opposite direction. When the majority of bets that are coming in are heavily weighted towards a particular side, the line can still move against that action in a phenomenon known as reverse line movement. This counter intuitive movement defies supply and demand but occurs because of a few factors:
1. The money coming in on the minority (lesser bet) is coming from bettors whose opinions the bookmaker respects (i.e. sharp money)
2. The book itself holds a contrarian view in favor of the minority side. That is, despite the large amount of money being bet on team A, the book still feels confident that team B has a higher probability of winning, thus welcomes even more action on team A to create a position.
Opposite line movement appears to contradict basic economic principles, which state that as the demand for a product increases, so should its price. However, bear in mind; betting is not a truly efficient market because every amount of money bet isn’t created equally. If the bookmaker has good reason to believe that the general consensus is incorrect, he or she will gladly challenge anyone willing to jump on the bandwagon. In short, whether you want to deem the minority as sharp or not, savvy bettors like Neil are aware of opposite line movements and how to identify them.
The general theme in NFL betting, held over many years, is that Squares bet favourites and overs, and high profile teams like the Cowboys, 49ers tend to attract Public money too. Yet there has been an interesting trend this year. Neil explained in this extract from Monday night's column
"Sunday night's result saw big TV games go 19-4 to the OVER this year. The professional syndicates keep betting UNDER and the smaller, public bettors are all getting the lot. In general the bookies are getting killed as the higher volume of money is for the OVER. Tonight's game opened 50 and the professional groups have bet it down to 48.5. In the last 11 games between these two sides the total has gone UNDER 8 times"
Looking behind the numbers in these markets, and comparing them to likely gameflow, can pay off. Monday night's game went Under.. Thursday night's game, with a points total spread bid up by this year's experiences, went under too. As Neil identified "Although the primetime games are now 19-5 to the OVER this year the market has started to compensate and we are getting to play UNDER an inflated total"
Being ahead of the market, and knowing which side is sharp, pays off.
What's on Betting Emporium?
English Football - Premier League Games Stuart analyses the week's games in the Premier League, free to access here
English Football - Championship GamesStuart analyses the week's games in the Championship, free to access here
English Non League Football - Conference Games - Alan looks at Non-League games across Conference National, North and South, free to access here
Football by Brodders - across European leagues, and including Champions League analysis, is available here
Premier League Statistical Analysis – You can read thishere still FREE to all registered users
Betting Emporium results
The detailed results page has been updated as have the spreadsheets with the detailed bets. They can be found by clickingRESULTS
Posted on 20 Oct 2014 13:03 in
Weekly Articles "Road to Riches" by Rich 'Tighty' Prew
Coming Up this weekend
- It is nearly the half way stage of the regular NFL Season, and Week 8 includes the second Wembley game of the year with the Atlanta Falcons versus the Detroit Lions. For Neil's Sunday selections:
- The Premier League continues with a highlight Manchester United v Chelsea tomorrow
- Racing includes flat meetings at Doncaster and Newbury and the first jumps meeting of the season at Aintree
- In Golf the European tour heads to Australia for the Perth International and on the USPGA the McGladery Classic in Georgia.
- In Tennis the final stages of the BNP Paribas WTA Finals , Singapore and ATP Swiss Indoors in Basel, Switzerland
- In Rugby Union the second round of European Champions Pool matches
- In Baseball, games 4 and 5 of the 2014 World Series between the Kansas City Royals and San Francisco Giants, with the Royals 2-1 up after 3 games
Free Tip of the Week
The Road to Riches features regular free tips from Betting Emporium writers. Today its a welcome to Betting Emporium to Jeff "Jaffa Cake" Kimber a long time NBA Bettor and writer, who previews the 2014-15 NBA season that starts imminently....
"The most anticipated NBA season in years starts on Tuesday with more questions than answers about almost all the main contenders.
All the buzz has been around the Cleveland Cavaliers, who in the off season have gone from 66/1 no hopers to 7/2 favourites thanks to the return home of the best player in the game LeBron James.
James and the Miami Heat made it to the NBA Finals, having won the Eastern Conference, in each of the four seasons he spent with his talents in South Beach, and the reaction to his decision to return to his first club has seen the Cavs’ price tumble as the market expects that run to continue.
The supporting cast in Cleveland are arguably better, and unarguably younger and more athletic than James had at the Heat. Kyrie Irving, the reigning MVP of both the All Star Game and the Basketball World Cup, and Kevin Love, a rebounding and three-point shooting All Star in his own right, are the new members of the ‘big three’ and aged just 22 and 26 respectively, have their best years ahead of them.
Coupled with a head coach, David Blatt, who has never taken charge of an NBA team before, it may take a year or two for the Cavs to win it all, just as it did Miami, and 7/2 looks awfully short for a team that hasn’t played together and has a new coach. Perhaps the bookies took enough at 66 and 50/1 to not want to take any more money on Cleveland, they certainly took as much of mine as I could get on!
As LeBron has found, the East is the place to be if you want a run at winning championships, with probably 8 of the best 10 teams found in the Western Conference.
If Cleveland don’t win the East, then surely the Chicago Bulls will. The return from injury of former MVP Derrick Rose, and the upgrade at power forward where Pau Gasol takes over from Carlos Boozer, sees the Bulls take a big stride forward when all around them (bar the Cavs) are stuck in reverse.
Indiana, who had the best regular season record in the East, have lost star man Paul George for the season with a badly broken leg suffered played in a Team USA scrimmage, while Lance Stephenson signed with the Charlotte Hornets.
LeBron and the Miami Heat battled past the Pacers last year to win the East and make the Finals, but without the King, the Heat are also also-rans.
Stan James have the Bulls at 100/30 and pay ½ first two each way, and for those that can that looks like a great bet to nothing. After all, LeBron has said this week he thinks the Bulls are much better than his Cavs, and while there might be some reverse psychology going on there, they definitely have a chance of winning the East. If Stan James won’t accommodate, Ladbrokes 31/20 the Bulls win the East without Cleveland looks fair, if less exciting without the chance of scooping.
In the West, the injury to MVP Kevin Durant has only accentuated how good a chance the reigning champs, the San Antonio Spurs, have.
While the Spurs are brought back all their veterans and look primed to go for one more title run, their closest rivals are reeling from Durant’s broken foot, which is set to keep him out for at least the first month of the season and maybe longer.
Whether he comes back from his first major injury as a professional on time and fighting fit, and how Russell Westbrook, who has suffered a couple of pretty serious injuries himself in the past two seasons, copes with carrying Oklahoma City, remains to be seen, and they’re not a team I’d be hurrying to back at the current 100/30 to win the West or 13/2 for the title.
San Antonio’s performance in dismantling the Heat in last year’s final, probably pushing the game’s greatest player into trading Miami for Cleveland, makes them look the team to beat and the 9/2 at Stan James and 4/1 generally to repeat that success looks more than fair.
I’m opposing Oklahoma in the divisional market too with a small interest in Denver at 25/1 with a few firms. The Nuggets are coming off a disappointing season where five players missed more than 20 games, but are only two seasons removed from being one of the top teams in the NBA. The close season signing of Aaron Afflalo and the return to fitness of Danilo Gallinari gives Denver some hope of landing the Northwest Division, though I won’t be going crazy.
In the submarkets I’ve cooled my interest in Andrew Wiggins at 5/1 for Rookie of the Year. Jabari Parker has been far more impressive in preseason and looks a worthy favourite.
One bet I do like is on the Sixth Man of the Year. Jamal Crawford, who won this award last year and is one of only four players to have won it twice, is rightly favourite. He was great off the bench last season and he isn’t likely to land a starting berth with the Clippers this year either.
At around 6/4 though he’s plenty short enough, and I’ll be looking elsewhere. Greg Monroe looks to be the odd man out in Detroit, and if he moves to the bench this season, as he has in preseason, he’s a real runner in this market.
Stan Van Gundy has inherited the ‘three into two doesn’t go’ problem of Monroe, Andre Drummond and Josh Smith, and rather than try and cram them into the starting line-up, the wily old fox looks to have found a simple solution that could see Monroe, an excellent big man in his own right, flourish against second units this season.
If we can get past the trade deadline without Monroe being traded (having signed just a one year qualifying offer in the summer) the 20/1 with William Hill could be a steal.
I’m having 18 points on Greg Monroe to win the NBA Sixth Man of the Year award at 20/1 with William Hill
I’m having 8 points on Denver Nuggets to win the Northwest Division at 25/1 with a few firms
I’m having 24 points on San Antonio Spurs to win the NBA Championship at 4/1 with various firms"
Bookmaker reviews and advice
Getting the best price available is very important for all those who take their betting seriously.
Please open an account with all those bookmakers on the page on this link that you do not already have an account with using the links provided.
It is common knowledge that to acquire a skill, you have to go up a learning curve. The acquisition of that skill, perhaps becoming a winning bettor, isn't linear and The Pareto Principle states that 80% of outcomes come from 20% of causes.
The ubiquitous nature of 80/20 “Power Laws” (as they are known) has been demonstrated to apply across industries and applications
The issue for bettors is that to be better than the 80%, you need to put in considerably more effort. In the process of trying to become a more successful bettor there is a relationship between success of selections and the effort invested in making them.
Let’s define effort to include time, analysis and resource applied to make your betting selections. Pareto Power Laws suggest that it is possible for the bettors all over the world to match accuracies achieved by 80% of the bettors with only 20% of the input of effort.
But how can such low efforts result in such high dividends? Most of the predictions will be based on the information that is available in huge amount on the web and mainstream media. Collection of this information does not involve more than 20% efforts on your part and in result it is possible making betting as accurate as in case of 80% bettors. Another reason is also that most of the bettors will use the same information and data available online.
However, the curve takes its original shape from this point as any further improvements in the accuracy levels will involve much more effort on the part of the bettors. Reaching the 100% accuracy level therefore will not be achievable with 20% efforts. The power law therefore intensifies as the bettor inches ahead towards getting the compete accuracy.
From here on the marginal improvements in success require proportionality higher effort, with this power law intensifying as you seek to move closer to the Holy Grail of 100%
So what can you do to edge along the curve and pull ahead of the 80% of bettors making minimal effort?
Basic requirements for getting the complete results from the Pareto Principle involves understanding the way the bookmakers work and also understanding how the margins that usually bookmakers hold against bettors. Other “curve improvements” are typically seen from specialisation, and putting effort into less researched, less-efficiently priced markets
A Short cut
Of course accessing tipsters who themselves have (hopefully) advanced along the Pareto curve for themselves is a short-cut for you to “cheat the curve”. At Betting Emporium you have specialists in areas who have the experience, and put in the work for you to enable you to advance up your own curves. The result of this effort is quantified on the results page so that you can show to yourself with more confidence depending on how large a sample size you require that this short-cut might be something that benefits you, and where necessary paying for.
These short-cuts may vary: Someone like Brodders finds events which are less popular, and for which information is less widely available and this has a different Power Law relationship than Neil on the NFL say.
What's on Betting Emporium?
English Football - Premier League Games Stuart analyses the week's games in the Premier League, free to access here
English Football - Championship GamesStuart analyses the week's games in the Championship, free to access here
English Non League Football - Conference Games - Alan looks at Non-League teams in FA Cup 4th Qualifying Round today, free to access here
Football by Brodders - across European leagues, and including Champions League analysis, is available here
Premier League Statistical Analysis – You can read thishere still FREE to all registered users
Betting Emporium results
The detailed results page has all been updated this week as have the spreadsheets with the detailed bets. They can be found by clickingRESULTS
- The Premier League returns after the Iternational break with a full programme of matches.
- The Racing programme features Champions Day at Ascot (see below for Neil's tip) and over jumps one of the first Cheltenham meetings of the autumn.
- In Golf on the European Tour: Volvo World Match Play Championship takes place at the London Golf Club in Kent.
- In Tennis the ATP and WTA Kremlin Cups in Moscow conclude.
- In Rugby Union the European Champions Cup (successor to the Heineken Cup) Pool matches begin
Free Tip of the Week
The Road to Riches features regular free tips from Betting Emporium writers. Today Neil Channing looks at one of the last big races of the 2014 Flat racing season the QIPCO Champions stakes at Ascot
"The Champion Stakes is going to be run on pretty soft, tacky ground at Ascot. The results at Newmarket on softish ground reminded us, if we needed to be reminded, that a change in going can really randomise results, the top horses may not run up to their best and some outsiders may be able to show form we have never seen before on ground they have never encountered. I certainly won't be rushing to back any favourites at Ascot today and I think the headline race offers a great chance to back some outsiders.
The favourite Cirrus Des Aigles will love the ground, could easily win and at 13/8 it is probably priced correctly. We aren't trying to find horses that are priced correctly though so we'll leave this. The 2nd favourite Free Eagle is a horse with a massive potential for volatility in his price. He won a Group 3 race very easily on his last run and his jockey and trainer are saying all the stuff that ought to make the price way too short. I could never consider backing one going into Group 1 for the 1st time at such a short price but again I wouldn't be totally surprised if it won. With the trainer expressing doubts over it even running if the ground is too soft though this would be one to swerve to my mind.
I was always one of the biggest fans of Sir Henry Cecil and Noble Mission running today will remind many people of the great Frankel. This horse is one who was considered to be a complete rogue at the start of the year and it wasn't until they found the key which is to front-run on soft ground that he became a winner and the first group 1 winner at Warren Place since the death of the great man. I think people have cottoned on to the whole Cecil factor, to the fact that the horse will love the ground and not enough to the fact that the stable is generally sadly declining and may be really out of form right now. I could understand the people betting a week ago at double-figure prices but no at around 5/1, in fact I wouldn't take 7/1.
Ruler of the World won a Derby and ran 3rd in this last year off a disappointing Arc. I could easily see the same sort of thing happening here and I wouldn't put you off an each-way bet if that was your plan. I would need a slightly bigger price though.
Ayrad and Sheikhzayedroad are just not good enough and hold no interest to me but the other three runners are all interesting in terms of shooting for a place at a big price and all three could win.
Al Kazeem ran a close up middle of the pack race in the Arc, he stays well and could be suited by the battle they'll have tomorrow. I do just wonder about the really soft ground so I'm going to reluctantly pass. Pether's Moon is definitely a horse that ought to have won more races and he can be annoying when he comes there cruising before forgetting to win. A winner at Group 2 level and a consistent placer at Group 2 and 3 level this horse has not had the chance to contest the absolute top races. I could definitely see an argument for saying that he is improving, that he loves the soft ground, that he travels strongly in 1m4f races and that this slog over 1m2f in a race that might not be the greatest ever Group 1 race could give him a shot at placing at least.
The one I really like though is Western Hymn. This horse won the Sandown Derby trial on real soft ground and then was a little disappointing in the Derby where he was hampered and possibly didn't stay. After a nice long gap the horse won easily in a Group 2 race in France on really soft ground and then got beaten in another one of those when favourite. I love the trainer, I love the fact the horse gets the trip and goes on the ground and I love to bet a 3-year old and to forgive a horse one run.
I'm having 8 Points each-way Pether's Moon at 20/1 1/4 123 with Ladbrokes and some small firms.
I'm having 12 Points each-way Western Hymn at 16/1 1/4 123 with Ladbrokes and some small firms."
Bookmaker reviews and advice
Getting the best price available is very important for all those who take their betting seriously.
Please open an account with all those bookmakers on the page on this link that you do not already have an account with using the links provided.
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For an interview with Neil and Joe published recently in PokerPlayer Magazine "Betting Emporium: Sports betting from the experts" please see here
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Note: London’s Royal Courts of Justice has ruled against the Gibraltar Betting and Gaming Association Legal challenge to the UK's newly passed Gambling (Licensing and Advertising) Act.
Last Friday, a judgement supporting the United Kingdom Gambling Commission's impending introduction of the gaming law's new licensing system, a 15 percent point of consumption tax for gaming operators and new regulatory framework was handed down.
The result of this is that currently unlicensed operators such as Pinnacle will discontinue services to UK customers from the end of this month.
More news on a Pinnacle (and others) licence application when we get it
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Successful sports bettors have skills and talents that allow them to profit in a market where few can. Work ethic, discipline, and a talent for analysing information makes them a rare breed. I look at the amount of diligence put in, say, on the NFL weekly reports on Betting Emporium. One practice that sports bettors on any level should apply to their betting acumen is; review! At the end of any session, be that a day, a week or a season you should be asking yourself these types of questions:
Did I consistently beat the market?
Great indications of a successful sports bettor is their ability to get out ahead of their betting market and hold a ticket with a more advantageous number than the market closes at.
How many fortunate wins/unfortunate losses?
This can be extremely tricky to gauge. It takes a realistic person, but with the right mindset it can be done and is exponentially beneficial. These bets can be defined as games that had an event/series of events that altered what seemed to be a decided outcome. You can be on the "right side" of a game and lose. Conversely, you can be on the "wrong side" of a game and win a bet.
I take for example three games in last week's NFL slate where as a result of late scores in each, one or both of overs and supremacy were all "back-doored" in favour of the public and cost the Vegas books millions.
The Jets (+10 pre-match) were 24-17 down having fought well and were set to cover the spread (80% of bets were the other way), and for the game to go under. The quarterback throws an interception with seconds to go, returned for a touchdown.
The Redskins (+7 pre-match) were 23-20 down late in the game. The game was just about to go under, and the Redskins about to cover. With 29 seconds to go, the Redskins quarterback throws an interception, returned for a touchdown.
Last Monday night the Rams were 24-17 down and with a minute to go threw an interception, returned for a touchdown. Unders lost, overs won...
As a rational bettor, it is not outlandish to chalk all three outcomes down as “Bad Beats” for the player who wagered on the ‘Under’ (Betting Emporium, coincidentally, happened to be this way on a couple of the games) , and an extremely fortunate result for those who dabbled with the ‘Over’. Understanding that we are “gamblers” and a massive swing during the course of a sporting event is not uncommon is important. Whose analysis was right, those who went onto unders, or overs? The outcome doesn't necessarily tell you!
Do I have an unjustified bias when I bet?
While there are numerous trends and styles of betting, many recreational (and some professional) bettors may have a bias towards a certain subset of teams. The difference between the two is professionals have a reason towards, say, siding with home double-digit Underdogs in the NFL, while many recreational bettors routinely pound Favourites and ‘Overs’. Beyond a natural inclination in the two groups of bettors to be either contrarian or momentum players, tracking certain sub-sets and recording your results may not only expose a negative tendency, but allow an investor to realise a strong area in his handicapping. Adapting to a change in the market comes much easier to a bettor who reviews each betting block and deciphers where profitable positions still exist, compared to the player who continually plays into –EV (expected value) situations.
What's new on Betting Emporium?
English Football - Premier League Games Stuart analyses the week's games in the Premier League, free to access here
English Football - Championship GamesStuart analyses the week's games in the Championship, free to access here
English Non League Football - Conference Games - Alan analyses the week's games in the Conference, free to access here
Premier League Statistical Analysis – You can read thishere still FREE to all registered users
Football by Brodders - across European leagues, and including Champions League analysis, is available here
- The Premier League is on an International break for qualifying matches for Euro 2016 including England's game in Estonia on Sunday.
- Sochi hosts the inaugural RussianGrand Prix
- The Racing programme features flat meetings at Newmarket (including the Cesarewitch) and York and national hunt meetings at Chepstow and Hexham
- In Golf on the European Tour the Portugal Masters and on the USPGA Tour the Frys.com Open in Napa, California
- In Tennis the Shanghai Rolex Masters, Shanghai, China.
- In Rugby League, the Super League Grand Final between St Helens and Wigan Warriors
Free Tip of the Week
The Road to Riches features regular free tips from Betting Emporium writers. Today I look at an NFL sub-market for Sunday's game in the NFC North, where the Pittsburgh Steelers meet the Cleveland Browns
Quarterback Ben Roethlisberger of the Steelers has, on an otherwise inconsistent team, been on top form in the last three games having completed 77-of-106 passes (72.6%) for 783 yards (7.39 Yards per attempt) and a 6 touchdowns, no Interceptions. On the opening game of the season against tomorrow's opponent's Cleveland he threw for 365 passing yards and in the second game between them tomorrow Cleveland look unlikely to have top corner Joe Haden available. Even with Haden, the Browns rank 28th (of 32 teams) in pass defense and gave up four TDs to Titans quarterbacks last week. With Haden missing last Sunday, the other starting cornerback Buster Skrine was beaten, in blown coverages, for touchdowns. Cleveland used an undrafted rookie at slot corner. First-round pick at cornerback Justin Gilbert has already been benched. They are allowing an AFC-high 6.37 yards per play
Over the first five games of the season Roethlisberger has thrown 51 times to his top wide receiver Antonio Brown, the next closest being Heath Miller with 31. In week one Brown took the Browns for 116 yards on 5 receptions, with Haden covering him. Tomorrow, without Haden, the Browns have a problem. Their defense is far more effective up front, against the run but they have to guard against the excellent running back Le-Veon Bell. This will make it difficult to double-team Antonio Brown on the outside and leave themselves under-manned against the rush
Looking at the first touchdown market in the light of this potential mis-match, I considered Antonio Brown a 9-2 or 5-1 shot. I was very pleased to see 7-1 about with both Coral and William Hill (will ignore the 15-2 at Paddy Power, non-bookmakers for me and probably for some of you)
Brown is a big play wide receiver, already with 511 receiving yards this season, and five touchdowns. The Receiving yards sub-market tomorrow has him going for 90-95 yards, which if anything undercooks it. 100+ yards which he has done twice this season is a strong possibility
He's a very decent bet to score the first touchdown, a sporting bet to score 2+ touchdowns (as he has done twice this season), a solid overs bet in the 10/11 each of two receiving yards market. My bet here is
10 points Antonio Brown First Touchdown Scorer Pittsburgh Steelers at Cleveland Browns with Coral or William Hill
Bookmaker reviews and advice
Getting the best price available is very important for all those who take their betting seriously.
Please open an account with all those bookmakers on the page on this link that you do not already have an account with using the links provided.
For an interview with Neil and Joe published last week in PokerPlayer Magazine "Betting Emporium: Sports betting from the experts" please see here
"The glass is half full"
For many obvious reasons, optimism is a good character trait to possess. However when it comes to betting your optimistic nature can turn into a liability and affect your betting performance negatively.
The Optimism Bias lets you believe that you are less likely to be affected by negative events than other people, and this bias can be part of everyday life but also part of betting as well.
Optimism does have a very obvious advantage - it feels good. For as long as you can maintain your optimism it will be easier to suppress doubt and negative emotions. For that reason we intuitively tend to find information that reinforces our optimistic outlook. This is one of the manifestations of this confirmation bias.
You can see this when you decide to make a bet. Usually, if researching, you will be looking for arguments that support your bet. In fact you should look for counter-arguments with (at least) the same vigour, in order to judge the merits of the bet as objectively as possible.
This is where statistics can be valuable: They force you to attach some form of objective weight to the facts and establish a consistent relationship between them. Your intuition however will very often lead you to search for more reasons that support your bet, and even violate consistency for the sake of finding these reasons. This leads inexperienced bettors to not place enough weight on reasons that speak against the bet.
Feeling in control improves your optimistic outlook more than would be justified in many cases. A classic example of this is driving. Many people feel there is less of a chance of an accident when they are the ones behind the wheel.
We tend to forget very easily that even the best drivers are still very much at the mercy of the drivers of the other vehicles. No matter what our skills, a huge part of the risk of accident lies with the other drivers, whose behaviour we can't control.
Betting gives you a feeling of being in control as well, but it's a feeling of control that you are likely going to over-estimate. This is because the final result of any given match is often more random than we assume: Red cards, deflected shots, missed field goals, bad bounces of a golf ball, stewards enquiries, the list is long! All of these and more can steer an event in an unexpected direction.
You only have control over what betting odds you are going to accept for any given bet. You're never in control of the actual outcome. This is why successful betting isn't solely about picking winners, it's about getting the right prices too, and once you have done so accepting lack of control and randomness is something you have to live with
What else is on Betting Emporium this weekend?
English Football - Championship GamesStuart analyses the week's games in the Championship, free to access here
English Non League Football - Conference and FA Cup Qualifying Games - Alan analyses Conference and FA Cup Qualifying games this weekend, free to access here
Football by Brodders - across European leagues, and including Champions League analysis, is available here
Posted on 29 Sep 2014 10:30 in
Weekly Articles "Road to Riches" by Rich 'Tighty' Prew
Coming Up this weekend
- It is theFifth weekend of the NFL Season. Neil has had a great start with his weekly write ups, including seven out of eight winning tips last week. For Neil's week five Sunday selections...
- The Premier League continues with Chelsea hosting Arsenal a highlight for Sunday.
- Suzuka hosts the Japanese Grand Prix, typhoon permitting, as the 2014 Formula One season enters its final stages
- The Racing programme includes the Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe on Sunday (previewed below) and in the UK Saturday meetings at Newmarket and Ascot
- In Golf, after the excitement of the Ryder cup, the European tour resumes with the Alfred Dunhill Links Championship on the Old Course at St. Andrews
- In cricket the Champions League T20 final takes place in Bangalore between two IPL teams CSK and KKR and Australia begin a tour against Pakistan in Dubai.
Free Tip of the Week
The Road to Riches features regular free tips from Betting Emporium writers. Today, Neil Channing looks at Sunday’s Prix De L’Arc De Triomphe at Longchamp, the highlight of a card containing seven Group One races
"Some people love the Arc because they consider it to be the pinnacle of the season, a gathering of horses from around Europe to discover which is the best of 3-year olds and older horses and of both sexes over the classic distance. I love the Arc because it isn't a handicap and some firms offer e/w 1/4 1234.
Even if this race was a 20-runner handicap where the bigger priced horses were 33/1 this would be pretty tasty for the place part of an each-way bet but now consider that there are six horses at 66/1 and over who can be given little chance and we are sure to have a good bet whatever we do. We should also consider that in the last twelve years only two horses drawn higher than nine have won. I'm happy to rule out those drawn really high without blinking this time and the horses drawn one have historically found it hard to get a run so we'll throw out Avenir Certain too.
We can also throw out a couple of doubtful stayers in Just Away and Avenir Certain, (just in case you didn't throw her out before). On top of that we'll bin Treve who was so impressive from the wide draw last year but who just hasn't looked the same animal this year and who seems to need a lot of cut in the ground to let herself down. Wouldn't really be that interested in her at double the price.
The high drawn ones we have discarded are Taghrooda, who may not be as great as we once hoped, Ivanhowe and Kingston Hill.
We are left with nine possibles, but I can throw a couple of those out without too much heartache.
Gold Ship looks solid in that he stays all day but he is quirky and may prefer a bit of cut in the ground. Not one to rely on I think. Prince Gibralter would need to improve a fair deal although the faster ground should help and Ruler of the World will surely not be able to be ridden the way he was last time. If he wins it's not as good a race as we thought.
Ectot is definitely interesting and it wouldn't surprise me that much but there are definite trip doubts and he needs to improve and the price does not reflect these things.
Tapestry beat Taghrooda at York but we've now found out that Taghrooda was in season and it's just possible she is not so great as we thought. The last run was poor but she'll like the trip and ground, I just can't see any real value in her at the prices.
Three year old fillies have done great in the Arc, they have a definite advantage at the weights at this time of year and you'd be up £42 if you bet them for £1 level stakes since 2008. The one I like of that group is Harp Star who was badly ridden/unlucky (watch it and decide) last time. She has a slight stamina doubt and a draw of 12 otherwise I think she is pretty decent each-way material at around 7/1.
I'm going to settle on two horses that are drawn low and who definitely stay the trip.
Flintshire is trained by the master. His jockey was one of those ridden to sleep by Frankie last time when the horse was 6/4 favourite. I'm going to forgive that and remember that this is a Group 1 winner over course and distance being offered at 25/1 four places.
Dolniya was also beaten in a trial and also left things a bit late. Ridden by one of the best jockeys, the stable is having a great year and he hasn't got masses to find on form. Seems a big price.
I'm having 10 points each-way Flintshire at 25/1 1/4 1234 with Hills (would rather take 20/1 1234 than 25/1 123 as an alternative).
I'm having 12 points each-way Dolniya at 40/1 1/4 1234 with Bet365, Paddy Power and Betfair Sports (would take 33/1 1234 over 40/1 123)".
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For an interview with Neil and Joe published this week in PokerPlayer Magazine "Betting Emporium: Sports betting from the experts" please see here
Before I started putting together these weekly articles I spoke to Neil and Joe. Well Neil spoke, mostly. One of the points he made was that he frequently saw a confusion between those with specialist knowledge on a sport or sports and those with expertise in sports betting. That stuck with me because what we all see a lot of, particularly in marketing campaigns within the industry, is a proliferation of ex-sports stars becoming tipsters being promoted as experts by bookmakers as if these are tips you and I should follow.
This then reminded me of the "Green Lumber Fallacy". One of the most successful traders to ever buy and sell green lumber – which is freshly cut wood – actually had no idea what he was trading. He spent his entire green lumber career believing the product was just wood painted green, and not newly cut trees.
Nassim Nicholas Taleb in his recent book ‘Antifragile’ outlined a second similar situation: a star Swiss Franc trader who’s inability to locate Switzerland on the map didn’t hinder his ability to make money trading its currency.
These two people simply understand risk, something that many other people do not. Translate that through to betting and replace the word risk with value. While knowing about the sport and the value is obviously the ideal situation, it’s vital to remember that understanding value is as important, if not more so, than knowledge of the sport itself.
It’s understandable that bettors might give weight to the opinion of say an ex-football player with regard to betting on football, but football and betting on football are two completely separate domains. The opinion of the ex-player pushed out by a bookmaker is merely part of a marketing strategy, especially when you see it accompanied by the phrase "My five-fold today is..." because of course the bookmaker wants you to do multiples, and wants you to do multiples on favourites. Even that bastion of Saturday afternoon fun, "Soccer Saturday" have started doing it, either side of adverts for their bookmaking arm "Our multiple today is..."
Since Neil made the point to me, I've been watching things with a keener eye and realise more clearly that:
Just because someone has detailed knowledge or experience of a sport doesn’t mean they have the required knowledge to bet successfully on that sport.
Talking heads/journalists/tipsters love a narrative, a story that neatly explains for example a teams loss of form, and they love even more to back-fit narratives to explain when the story moves in a totally unexpected direction (as is often the case).
Of course, no one is suggesting sports knowledge is totally irrelevant for betting on sport, but the narrative in mainstream media is to refer to talking heads as predictive experts, but this generally means they are rarely appropriately placed to be judging value or making predictions that you should follow.
The inevitable conclusion, of course, is to read Betting Emporium more (funny that). Sports knowledge, yes. Value knowledge....a more important yes.
What's new on Betting Emporium?
English Football - Premier League Games Stuart analyses the week's games in the Premier League, free to access here
English Football - Championship GamesStuart analyses the week's games in the Championship, free to access here
English Non League Football - Conference Games - Alan analyses the week's games in the Conference, free to access here
Premier League Statistical Analysis – Five winning weeks from six for the Premier League Over 2.5 goals analysis and a ROI+13.28%. You can read this here still FREE to all registered users
Football by Brodders - across European leagues, and including Champions League analysis, is available here
