Weekly Articles "Road to Riches" by Rich 'Tighty' Prew
The Road to Riches: Weekend 27th-28th September
Posted on 22 Sep 2014 09:57 in
Weekly Articles "Road to Riches" by Rich 'Tighty' Prew
Coming Up this weekend
- The 2014 Ryder Cup concludes this weekend at Gleneagles and after Day One Europe lead 5-3. Pre-event coverage from Neil Channing is hereSee below for further thoughts/tips from Neil.
- It is thefourth weekend of the NFL Season. Neil has had a great start with his weekly write ups. For Neil's week four Sunday selections...
- The Premier League continues with the Merseyside derby on Saturday lunchtime and the North London derby late Saturday afternoon
- The Racing programme includes flat meetings at Newmarket including the Cambridgeshire Handicap and the Cheveley Park Stakes, Haydock, Chester and Ripon
- Aviva Premiership matches continue with a highlight Northampton hosting Bath
- In cricket the Champions League T20 continues this weekend
Free Tip of the Week
The Road to Riches features regular free tips from Betting Emporium writers. Today, Neil Channing continues his analysis of the Ryder Cup which concludes this weekend....
"When Tighty told me I was down to be the free bet guy for Roads to Riches this week I said I thought it would have to be the Ryder Cup, being as that is THE event of the week. The problem is that by the time you might read this the players will be out for the morning day two fourballs and so it's hard to suggest an in-running bet. I can't give you an afternoon one as we don't yet know who is playing.
Luckily the odds-compilers and the people playing around on Betfair have come to our rescue.
Anyone who read and decided to follow the advice I gave in my Ryder Cup preview the other day should be on Justin Rose top European each-way at 7/1 and Justin Rose Top Englishman at 6/4. With two points out of a maximum five from two games things are looking good for both bets. I don't want to seem blinkered at all but I do believe the price on Rose for top European Points Scorer that is offered overnight is still too big.
Justin has played two games and he'll play tomorrow morning. He is slight odds on to win and for him and Stenson to get to 3 points each, they are 5/1 to tie and both get to 2.5. I think either result will mean they get to play a 4th game in the afternoon but even if they do not and they "just" play four games I would expect them to be around the same price each to win their single. I'm allowing them 0.65 of a point for each of the singles match and the Saturday morning fourball. Even if you think I'm a bit strong there they are at least in for one point from the two and they also have a chance to play Saturday afternoon and be in for at least 0.4 more points on average.
The guys on half or none have almost no chance to catch them and some of their prices would not attract me if you quadrupled them.
It is a bit of a guessing game as to who plays in the afternoon and you might say that Justin wasn't putting all that great and it can't help when a bee stings your thumb, but all I can say is that 6/4 looks more like the price than 2/1 to my mind. You might also say that in your opinion he'll dead heat with Stenson a lot. It's certainly possible, but that would still make you a profit. All I know is that both are playing well, both are on two points but one was 10/1 on this market while the other was 7/1 at the start and they are now close to the same price. If I was told one of the two will play five matches that one is still Justin and not Henrik.
If you wake up and read this and they've teed off I would still suggest checking out the in-running markets.
I'm having 12 points at 2/1 Justin Rose Top Euro Points Scorer with Ladbrokes and Hills (Sportingbet are currently 9/4 if you are quick)."
Bookmaker reviews and advice
Getting the best price available is very important for all those who take their betting seriously.
Please open an account with all those bookmakers on the page on this link that you do not already have an account with using the links provided.
Today a look at a betting bias that has its roots in the field of cognitive psychology, The Bandwagon Effect.
This is a bias based on how we prefer to be comfortable and avoid any social pressure when group-think is on the agenda. We see this across many aspects of life, for example when a new technology or product bursts onto the scene a notable example being the internet in the last half of the 1990’s. Investors went bonkers and group-thought their way to financial disaster. Investors did not want to be left behind while others enjoyed the gains being made in "new economy" stocks.
So, how does this become a betting bias? How many times have you analysed a game, found yourself a bet or bets, only to read a forum, spot a tweet or browse a betting site and notice that there are numerous people taking the opposite side of your bet? You might think that these people have better reasoning than you, or know something you don't. Unless you are detached from the thinking of the crowd, this can result in not following your own judgement or switching sides.
So this is a betting bias based on the fear of being wrong and logically has its basis in odds, and favouring the head of the market. A person who is uninformed or poorly informed and wanting to have a bet will base his opinions on the views of a majority of people.
It is a common occurrence when you look at high profile games that gain a lot of public interest with social media, television and office water-cooler discussions going into overdrive. Often the popular or highest profile team ends up being "over-backed" moving betting lines away from "fair value".
Following on from last week's conclusions on "Recency Bias" what you will often see in Betting Emporium analysis is a look at price trends in the light of public backing, and public versus professional backing, trying to highlight where the Bandwagon has taken prices against the writers' notion of the correct price and benefitting from opportunities that result. We, the reader, can use that judgement to offset the potential Bandwagon effect in our bets. The Professional bettor will ignore the bandwagon and concentrate on his own research and analysis
What's new on Betting Emporium?
English Football - Premier League Games Stuart analyses the week's games in the Premier League, free to access here
English Football - Championship GamesStuart analyses the week's games in the Championship, free to access here
English Non League Football - Conference Games - Alan analyses the week's games in the Conference, free to access here
Premier League Statistical Analysis – FIVE OUT OF FIVE winning weeks so far in the 2014-15 season. You can read this here still FREE to all registered users
Football by Brodders - across European leagues, and including Champions League analysis, is available here
Posted on 15 Sep 2014 10:08 in
Weekly Articles "Road to Riches" by Rich 'Tighty' Prew
Coming Up this weekend
- It is the third weekend of the NFL Season. Neil has had a great start with his weekly write ups with successivewinning weeks to open the season, up over 100 points and over 38% ROI. After another winning bet on Thursday night, for Neil's week three Sunday selections...
- The Premier League continues with Manchester City at home to Chelsea a big game at the top of the table on Sunday
- The racing programme includes meetings at Ayr, Newmarket and Newbury
- The F1 season enters the final six races with the Singapore Grand Prix on Sunday lunchtime, UK time
- Aviva Premiership matches on the third weekend of the season
Next Week: Look out for Ryder Cup Analysis - The 2014 Ryder Cup is at Gleneagles from September 23rd-28th. Coverage on Betting Emporium from Neil Channing
Free Tip of the Week
The Road to Riches features regular free tips from Betting Emporium writers. Today, our first look in this weekly column at Formula One, where one of the great spectacles of the season the night-time Singapore Grand Prix takes place on Sunday.
The season has of course been dominated by the Mercedes team, who have taken best advantage of the sweeping change of regulations with the introduction of electric-hybrid engines, turbo boosts and energy recovery systems and clearly continue to have the best engine package compared to all other suppliers. The result of this is that the Hamilton/Rosberg pair head the market for every Grand Prix, and Singapore is no different with 2/1 the pair, 10/1 bar the front two for the race win.
Singapore though is a street circuit that reduces the effect of the power advantage that Mercedes has, in common with circuits like Monaco and Hungaroring and maximises the aerodynamic package through slow-ish corners. These are ideal Red Bull Racing conditions, and indeed they have won the last three renewals of Singapore.
Of course the competitive environment of 2014 is very different to 2011-13 but the Red Bull performance at Monaco (Ricciardo on the podium) and Hungary (Ricciardo the winner) confirms that on the "slower" circuits where outright power is less than important, the Red Bull package is competitive enough to challenge the Mercedes on certain tracks and in certain circumstances. This race could be one of those.despite the disadvantage of the Renault power unit.
Vettel has yet to win a race this season, but his team mate Daniel Ricciardo has won three times. The pecking order at Red Bull has changed for this year at least with Vettel consistently finishing behind his younger team mate and now suffering another engine problem in practice today.
Ricciardo has only been able to beat both Mercedes where misfortune has struck Hamilton and/or Rosberg but reliability problems are a strong possibility in Singapore. It is a fascinating race because it is the longest race in the F1 calendar at almost two hours, one of the hardest on brakes, with a 100% record of a safety car (one in each of the six races to date at Singapore), a long slow pit stop and a choice of the softest tyres which cannot do the 308km marathon in one stop. It is always a challenge and instinctively I want to find ways to oppose the short-priced Mercedes one-two because of these elements that can "randomise" results.
I am writing before qualifying, of course, and after the first two practice sessions. This afternoon in the second session Ricciardo was only 0.3secs adrift of Hamilton's fastest lap - just 0.1secs adrift of the margin the Australian had said he believed Red Bull needed to be within to have a chance - and on race pace the two Mercedes drivers and Ricciardo looked closely matched.
My idea is to split 20 points as follows:
4 points Daniel Ricciardo to win the Singapore Grand Prix 10-1 Betfred , Skybet or Bet365
6 points Daniel Ricciardo top two finish 3.4 Betfair . Expect better liquidity over the weekend, would take 9/4+ once the fixed odds bookmakers offer the market
10 points Daniel Ricciardo podium finish, 17/20 Betway 5/6 generally including BetVictor or William Hill. Hoping for Evens plus after qualifying, as a saver for the above two bets
- note 2.1 was available with VCBet but we'll record evens for our records
Bookmaker reviews and advice
Getting the best price available is very important for all those who take their betting seriously.
Please open an account with all those bookmakers on the page on this link that you do not already have an account with using the links provided.
Today a look at a cognitive/behavioural bias that Neil mentioned in one of his weekly write-ups last week, Recency Bias
Recency can be a problem for bettors that’s difficult to overcome. You focus on the most recent events you’ve experienced and its easy to neglect older information. We don’t so much integrate new information with the old as use it to overwrite our memories.
For bettors recency may have a couple of different effects. Positive recency makes you a momentum gambler, a sort of living incarnation of a goldfish, forever surprised by the same piece of seaweed. Negative recency makes you a contrarian solidly heading away from short-term trends, some of which may be valid, in search of value. Negative recency is strongly associated with a belief in mean reversion and this can work well in some sports such as the NFL which is structured for competitive balance and against the perpetuation of short term trends. In other sports, perhaps Premier League football, you can go a long time waiting for the top six to revert to the mean, with competitive imbalance persisting helped by TV deals, absence of salary caps and rich owners etc
Recency is a special case of what’s known as the serial position effect, a finding that the order in which information is presented matters greatly to our ability to recall it from memory. To be precise the first items in a list are generally remembered – the primacy effect – and the last ones, the recency effect. Mostly we either fail to remember or misremember the stuff in the middle.
However, the recency effect doesn’t generally just refer to remembering stuff from lists, it’s also used to refer to an autobiographical effect in which people tend to remember stuff that’s happened to them recently more vividly than things that happened further back in the past. "I backed this team last week, they won" and "I am never backing them again after what happened last week" being the types of thoughts we've all gone through!
Positive and negative recency are both observable in normal human behaviour. Perhaps the most common forms of these appear in the “hot-hand effect” and the “gambler’s fallacy” respectively. In the former people erroneously believe that players in certain sports get on a roll and demonstrate a run of success over and above what they’d normally achieve. In the latter there’s an expectation that a run of a particular type in a random process makes a reversion more likely – so a run of red on a roulette wheel makes black more likely next time.
Recency bias is derived from something called Bayesian inference defined as "the process by which the probability estimate for a hypothesis is updated as additional evidence is learned". If you bet, you use it all the time and probably do not know it.
In terms more familiar to the reader, the above definition of Bayesian inference might be stated as "the process by which our evaluation of a horse's/team's/ individual player's ability (or odds in a given context) gets revised as additional evidence is learned".
"Additional evidence" can be anything from a change in the going to an unexpected defeat, from the acquisition by a team of a valuable player to an unexpected victory, and much more besides. Often, the score is one of most misleading statisticss, which is good because this leads to over-reaction and hence value...
So how much should we revise our opinion of sports event upcoming as a result of this latest evidence?
It is impossible to be sure quite how big a part recency bias plays in distorting the betting market, but the suspicion is that it is plenty.
What you as a subscriber to Betting Emporium are doing is asking the writer to combine his thoughts on value, with his opinion of recency, and come to a conclusion. The weight he attaches to the two may vary according to his experience and the characteristics of each sport but in general (and generalisation is difficult in this area) we can see that the Betting Emporium approaches emphasise value over recency, and contrarian over momentum.
What's new on Betting Emporium?
English Football - Premier League Games Stuart analyses the week's games in the Premier League, free to access here
English Football - Championship GamesStuart analyses the week's games in the Championship, free to access here
English Non League Football - Conference Games - Alan analyses the week's games in the Conference, free to access here
Premier League Statistical Analysis – Four winning weeks from four for the Premier League Over 2.5 goals analysis so far this season. You can read this here still FREE to all registered users
Football by Brodders - across European leagues, and including Champions League analysis, is available here
Posted on 8 Sep 2014 10:02 in
Weekly Articles "Road to Riches" by Rich 'Tighty' Prew
Coming Up this weekend
- It is the second weekend of the NFL Season. After a successful first week, look out for Neil's selections on Sunday here.
- The Premier League resumes after the international break with the Saturday lunchtime game, Arsenal hosting Manchester City, a highlight
- The racing programme includes the St Leger at Doncaster and flat meetings at Chester, Bath and Lingfield
- Golf, on the European Tour the KLM Open in the Netherlands: and on the USPGA: the Coca Cola Tour Championship in Atlanta
- Aviva Premiership matches on the second weekend of the season
Free Tip of the Week
The Road to Riches features regular free tips from Betting Emporium writers. Today, Neil Channing takes a look at the final Classic of the flat racing season, the St Leger on Saturday afternoon (Doncaster 3.50):
"All week I've been wondering about the ground for the St Leger but not because I was hoping the would water for Kingston Hill. My interest was purely to see whether cut in the ground might come for Andrew Balding's Scotland, who could have done with some rain. Having backed this horse at Royal Ascot where it squeaked a profitable 3rd over 1m4f in the King Edward VII I definitely had the feeling that further and softer ground would help. I managed to swerve the beast at Goodwood where the ground was very fast and the track is not great for steady staying types but I'm delighted to get a massive price here and the bonus of 1/4 odds over a much more suitable trip.
Obviously I'm glad Doncaster didn't water for one horse and although I think Kingston Hill is admirable, I'd have been really cross if they'd have set a nasty precedent for a solid but unspectacular horse. Snow Sky was cloth and pulled hard at Goodwood and still won and he managed to behave at York but the Goodwood antics put me off at just 5/1. For a 2nd bet I'll take another horse with temperament issues but at least I'll have a massive price to compensate.
Odeon was sweaty, pulled hard and generally seemed uninterested when 40/1 to win the best trial for this at York. Betting Emporium followers were relieved when, despite these antics, our horse got 3rd a few lengths behind Snow Sky. I'm hoping that with better behaviour Odeon can run a little better and even if he runs as last time he'll be pretty close to grabbing a place.
To me the race is pretty wide open and I'm glad to take two bigger-priced runners.
Getting the best price available is very important for all those who take their betting seriously.
Please open an account with all those bookmakers on the page on this link that you do not already have an account with using the links provided.
Pinnacle Sports closes to UK Customers
On thursday Pinnacle released a statement that you can see HERE stating that after September 30th, 2014, they will be unable to offer services to any players resident in Great Britain. This is obviously a disappointment for us, and no doubt our clients, given that Pinnacle ( and SBOBet who announced the same recently) take proper bets, betting to smaller margins and not closing accounts.
The background to this decision is the new Gambling, Licensing and Advertising Act being introduced on October 1st, under which overseas companies advertising remote gambling services to customers in the United Kingdom must hold a licence issued by the UK Gambling Commission. Companies can fill in applications for the licence starting in September.
Currently, those advertising remote gambling services to UK consumers can do so provided they hold a valid licence from within the EU or the White List Territory in which they are established.
The existing tax law was considered to be incentivising companies such as William Hill, Betfair and Ladbrokes to operate their online operations offshore from locations including Gibraltar.
At the same time, a new finance bill being introduced in December will see gambling operators taxed on a place of consumption basis. This means that they will have to pay tax at a proposed rate of 15% on gross gambling profits generated by customers in the UK, regardless of where they are based. To a company like Pinnacle, betting to thin margins albeit in huge volumes, this is also a challenge.
Betting Emporium has two emails from Pinnacle, both in the last few months, stating that they are getting a UK licence and that it will be business as usual. Betting Emporium contacted Pinnacle after their announcement this week and we were told 'We plan on relaunching our application, but cannot provide a timeline.'
The Gambling Commission website shows 'PinnacleSports Application in progress for UK Gambling Licence'
We will update you further as news develops.
Also today a look at the Kelly Criterion
What is the Kelly Criterion?
The Kelly Criterion is a money management focused betting system, it aims to perfectly size your bets based on the value offered. In turn, money management is all about optimising the potential for winning at the expense of excess risk. In essence the Kelly Criterion aims to find the optimal amount of your bankroll to wager on a bet.
The Basic Kelly Criterion formula
BR% = (P*B) – 1 / odds – 1, where we let P be the probability of us winning (in decimal format), B the odds offered and BR% is the percent of the bankroll we should stake according to the Kelly Criterion.
Applying Kelly
After applying this formula to your data you get a positive number for BR% that shows you how much of your bankroll to wager. If the number is negative, it simply means: No bet.
An Example
We are offered 1.91 or in fractional odds of 10/11 that Arsenal will beat Tottenham. You estimate that Arsenal have a 55% chance of winning. If you plug those numbers into the formula above you get BR% = (0.55*1.91) - 1 / (1.91 – 1). Working out the Kelly Criterion then instructs us to bet 5.5495% of our bankroll.
Problems..
They key to this is estimating the exact probability for the outcome you want to bet on, and of course that is subjective. Using the example above to illustrate: If the 55% estimate was slightly off, and the real probability for an Arsenal win was 52% (about 5.5% off the 55% first target) then the Kelly Criterion would tell us to skip the bet.
So, how easy is it to analyse sports events? First, analysing sports events is not a static exercise. It is highly dynamic. New factors bombard us from all angles at all times. To get to a spot-on perfect valuation is an immense task, and most humans have enough problems finding the said value.
Many people will tell you to bet less than the Kelly formula ( betting ½ Kelly, ¼ Kelly and so on )says to bet. Two reasons are generally given for this. The first is that gamblers tend to overestimate their odds of winning and so will naturally overbet. Betting less than the Kelly amount corrects for this. The other is that the Kelly formula leads to extreme volatility, and you should underbet to limit the chance of being badly down for unacceptably long stretches.
Questions on Betting Emporium methodology for bankrolls and staking plans including explanations of our staking plans which balance both risk and reward for customers are answered in the Frequently Asked Questions Section.
What's new on Betting Emporium?
The NFL 2014-15season began on 1st September. Ante-post season bets have been published through August and Neil Channing is providing his legendary write ups on all the games every week for the 17 weeks of regular games.
Ante-post articles for the Superbowl, conferences, divisions, team and player specials are here
English Football - Premier League Games Stuart analyses the week's games in the Premier League, free to access here
English Football - Championship GamesStuart analyses the week's games in the Championship, free to access here
English Non League Football - Conference Games - Alan analyses the week's games in the Conference, free to access here
Premier League Statistical Analysis – Three winning weeks from three for the Premier League Over 2.5 goals analysis. You can read them here still FREE to all registered users
Football by Brodders - across European leagues is available here
Look out for Ryder Cup Analysis - The 2014 Ryder Cup is at Gleneagles from September 23rd-28th. Coverage on Betting Emporium from Neil Channing
Betting Emporium results
Across every sport since inception can be found by clickingRESULTS
The Road to Riches: Weekend 6th-7th September
Posted on 4 Sep 2014 10:24 in
Weekly Articles "Road to Riches" by Rich 'Tighty' Prew
Coming Up this weekend
- It is the first weekend of the NFL Season. Neil Channing has written "NFL 'The New Season Approaches - What To Expect' (Free to read, registration or log in not required.) to coincide with this. You can read it HERE
- The Premier League is on International break with UEFA European Championship 2016 Qualifying matches commencing.
- The T20 cricket International takes place on Sunday between England and India at Egbaston, concluding the India Tour
- The US Open Tennis finals are this weekend at Flushing Meadow.
- The racing programme includes flat meetings at Haydock, including the Sprint Cup, Ascot, Kempton and Thirsk
- Golf, on the European Tour: The Omega European Masters in Switzerland and on the USPGA: the BMW Championship in Colorado
- Aviva Premiership matches as the domestic Rugby season begins
Free Tip of the Week
The Road to Riches features regular free tips from Betting Emporium writers. Today, with the start of the new NFL season upon us, Neil Channing and I have talked and cogitated and have a NFL first touchdown scorer tip in the match between the Minnesota Vikings and the St Louis Rams.
The Vikings have been a frustrating team to follow for several seasons. They've fielded the best running back in the NFL, Adrian Peterson, but had well below par quarterbacks and receivers. Once their defense began to have to be overhauled their results slipped and they have been in the basement of their division for several years.
This off-season, and in the past two drafts, there has been a change in philosophy (at last) to develop a more balanced roster. Off the field, the new offensive co-ordinator is Norv Turner, a former head coach and renowed offensive guru and on the field the first round draft pick from last year Cordarelle Patterson is going to be a star name in the seasons to come. Blisteringly quick, he was superb on kick off returns last year and this year his role expands. He is the number one receiver, in an offense that is opening out, finally, with the hope of consistent quarterback play from Matt Cassell and eventually Teddy Bridgewater.
The Vikings begin this season against the Rams. The Rams have one of the deepest and most talented defensive lines in football. Running on them is going to be tough all season. Their secondary is comparatively weaker and vulnerable to long plays. On the other side of the ball, they aren't the most dynamic offense, and we would be quite comfortable in expecting the Vikings to have a better than 50-50 chance of scoring the first touchdown as a team.
Add to this, the continued presence of Peterson skews the first touchdown scorer market. He's 5/1 favourite, but the match up this week doesn't favour him, and the quote is a bit historic because it reflects the Vikings of 2011-13 not the more multi-dimensional offense that this year should bring
So, looking down the market we see a couple of quotes for Cordarrelle Patterson in the 7/1 15/2 range. Fair enough. However Stan James offer 14/1. If we ignore that because none of us can get on we see Bet365 are up at 12-1 first touchdown scorer.
Patterson scored nine touchdowns in his rookie year. Four receiving (from only 45 receptions all season), three rushing, two on returns. There are many ways to skin the cat on this bet, if we can get 12-1+.
Good luck!
5 points Cordarrelle Patterson first touchdown scorer Minnesota Vikings v St Louis Rams 12/1 Bet365(match is 6pm sunday UK time)
As you know, at Betting Emporium we only want to put up prices and bets in markets that we can avail ourselves of. First touchdown markets in NFL games can be tricky until the day of the game. We might only at this stage see markets from Bet365, skybet, stan James, possibly Betfred so we'll give a back up in case the Patterson price goes, as it might, before many of you see it
So, Monday night Football, the New York Giants at the Detroit Lions. This is a game that should go over the 47 total point quote, which is always a good starting point for touchdown bets. The Lions are the more explosive team with the best wide receiver in the NFL in Calvin "megatron" Johnson, the focal point of the team's offense and which all defenses struggle to stop scoring. 66 touchdowns in 106 career starts and 12 in 14 last season.
We had in our minds that Johnson should be a 4-1 favourite for first touchdown scorer in this game and indeed he is quoted as such at two places. Skybet have put up 11/2 Johnson in this market. This price should be taken, if you can
5 points Calvin Johnson first touchdown scorer Detroit Lions v New York Giants 11/2 Skybet (Monday night football, 1am Tuesday UK time)
Bookmaker reviews and advice
Getting the best price available is very important for all those who take their betting seriously.
Please open an account with all those bookmakers on the page on this link that you do not already have an account with using the links provided.
This is the second of a series of articles on Betting Psychology:
Today: Irrational Escalation:
Irrational escalation is a term often used in psychology, philosophy, and economics. The common element in all these spheres is that irrational decisions about new investments are being made and justified on basis of previous investments, even if it is likely that the new investments are not worth it given the expected outcome. Quotes such as "in for a penny, in for a pound" and "throwing good money after bad" also derive from irrational escalation.
- Irrational escalation in betting
Very often you see bettors that start out placing disciplined bets, but after losing some bets they increase the stakes. Bet size and often also bet selection are then being justified on the basis of previous lost bets (sunk cost) instead of based on estimates of value and bankroll/staking considerations. A bet is not being considered on its own merits, as a discrete event but influenced by past bets that bear no relevance to the new bet, apart from in your own mindset.
Irrational escalation can play a role also for bettors that are winning, for instance if you continue betting or increase the stakes because you have been winning more than usual lately. Of course, there will be times when it is correct that you should continue betting and/or increase the stakes - but make sure you do it for the right reasons and not only because of previous bets.
Another example is when you spend a lot of time researching a match without finding a proper value bet. In many cases you would spend even more time looking at the match, because you had spent so much time already that it seemed like a waste to not have found a bet yet (the thought being that there must be a good bet here just as long as you spend enough time searching for it). In the end you will often place a bet, maybe feeling proud that all the research finally paid off, but subconsciously your bet value estimates have been influenced by the time investment made into research, and the value bet you found in the end was the type of bet you would have dismissed if you were only 30 minutess into the research.
As a general rule, before placing bets you should take a step back and really look at the big picture.
Is your bet and bet size in line with the staking system you are using?
Is your bet a value bet in its own right, based on the information you have available and without any justification of previous investments?
By asking these questions you should be able to avoid irrational escalation.
Betting Emporium writers offer consistent staking policies the methodology behind which are included in the Frequently Asked Questions Section.
One of the key tenets is that no one is forcing us to have a bet, and discipline is key. No chasing, and no irrational escalation......
What's new on Betting Emporium?
As mentioned above The NFL 2014-15season began on 1st September. Ante-post season bets have been published through August and Neil Channing is providing his legendary write ups on all the games every week for the 17 weeks of regular games.
Ante-post articles for the Superbowl, conferences, divisions, team and player specials are here
English Non League Football - Conference Games - Alan analyses the week's games in the Conference, free to access here
Football by Brodders - across European leagues is available here
Look out for Ryder Cup Analysis - The 2014 Ryder Cup is at Gleneagles from September 23rd-28th. Coverage on Betting Emporium from Neil Channing
Betting Emporium results
Across every sport since inception can be found by clickingRESULTS .
The Road to Riches: Weekend 30th-31st August
Posted on 25 Aug 2014 10:33 in
Weekly Articles "Road to Riches" by Rich 'Tighty' Prew
Coming up this weekend
- The third weekend of the Premier League season and a full programme of League and non-league football
- The Third One Day cricket International takes place between England and India at Trent Bridge
- The US Open Tennis continues at Flushing Meadow.
- The racing programme includes flat meetings at Sandown, Chester, Bath and Beverley
- Golf sees the final two rounds of the Italian Open on the European tour and the USPGA Deutsche Bank open in Boston as the qualifying deadline for the Ryder Cup looms
Just two days left to enter our free Premier League competition. Closes Sunday August 31st.
$500 in prizes winner takes all. Simply email your prediction of the final Premier League table this year to us and closest wins. We've had about 20 entries so far so you have a great chance if you enter.
The Road to Riches features regular free tips from Betting Emporium writers.
Today a look at the Colchester United v Peterborough United match in league one tomorrow.
Peterborough United lie second in the table at this early stage with three wins in four games. An exciting, attacking side they have under chairman Darragh MacAnthony and manager Darren Ferguson done very well recruiting players from non-league, helping them prosper and then selling them on to higher leagues. Lee Tomlin (Middlesborough) and Dwight Gayle (Crystal Palace) are the most recent examples.
Last November Peterborough signed Kyle Vassell from Bishops Stortford and it was expected that he would be a back-up striker this season until the club sold the prolific Britt Assombolonga to Nottingham Forest on the eve of the season. This thrust Vassell into the starting line up for the start of the season, after scoring four times in five pre-season games and he has scored four goals in four games in the league since, including the first goal twice and two against MK Dons.
Vassell is a "fox in the box" type, using speed against league one defenders his main weapon. Whilst we would expect Peterborough to strengthen up front before the end of the transfer window, Vassell will be up top at Colchester on Saturday. Colchester look to have a difficult season ahead, with one point in the opening four games.
With Vassell in this form, for this match, the first goalscorer market is interesting.Bet365offer 13/2 Vassell first goalscorer with each way one-third the odds to score anytime. Betfred and BetVictor 6-1 win only is available.
I am going to recommend 4 points each way Kyle Vassell first goal-scorer Bet365 13/2 (one third odds, unlimited places)
But for the records, we will put down 4 points win at 6-1 Betfred or BetVictoras in all likelihood that is a price more of us will be able to avail ourselves of than the 13/2.
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This is the first of a series of thoughts on Betting Psychology:
- Anchoring
The anchoring bias is one of the main causes why many bettors fail to objectively consider all relevant elements before placing their bets. Anchoring is a type of cognitive bias that describes the tendency we have to rely too heavily on just one factor or piece of information when making decisions. The anchor is often set early and is based on the first information we learn about a subject, and there is a bias toward adjusting or interpreting other information to reflect the “anchored” information, thus affecting future thought process and decisions-making.
- Anchoring as a betting bias
Take as an example a big football match. One side has a number of key absentees through injury and suspension and this sets the anchor and all the other information is then interpreted to reflect the anchor. So when the bookmakers change their prices we interpret this only as a confirmation of the anchor and that the team news is very important (instead of considering the updated prices in relation to all other factors).
A sports bettor will start with an implicitly suggested reference point (the “anchor”, such as the team news or the price on offer) and from this reference point make adjustments to reach his own estimate. It is, in other words, the anchor that becomes the starting point for the decision-making, and the bettor makes incremental adjustments based on additional information. This type of process will often create problems for the bettor in reaching the correct decision, because the anchor (whether it is the news that several star players are injured and the team weakened, the market price or a team's current form) is not necessarily the correct starting reference.
- How to avoid anchoring?
That is easier said than done. If you know you want to bet on a specific event, try to make up your own mind up ( helped by Betting Emporium! ) about winning probability and correct price before you check market prices and team news. Because once you know the market price and have read match previews with opinions about latest line-ups etc, the anchor has been set and it will be very difficult to make estimates that are 100% your own.
The above example of sports bettors relying too heavily on team news and neither objectively assessing the value of the news nor taking the updated prices into proper consideration, is something you see often when you read comments on facebook and twitter each weekend about individuals and their betting activity.. The anchoring bias is one of the main reasons why so many sports bettors, even though they mostly follow tips they read about, end up losing money while the tipsters they follow make money. If you see an article on here, with a selection at x and the price moves to y, it does not follow that what applies at price x applies at price y. Hence the focus on which prices are value and prices below which a selection is not a bet in a lot of the Betting Emporium recommendations. The focus is on "value" not short-term "noise".
- "Incredibly Important news!" As a punter you will be battered by “incredibly important” news (here's looking at you Sky Sports News...). One way of avoiding an excessive reliance on short term news and taking prices without value, is to look at when news became public and how the market prices have moved since then. Unless you are very quick (usually less than 15-30mins), the bookmakers will have reacted already and the relevant news included in the updated prices. Sometimes you will notice that the bookmakers first reacted to the news by changing their prices, but then later gradually reverted to their original prices. This can indicate that the importance of the news was hyped and that instead of following it you should re-evaluate all factors before placing your bet.
What's new on Betting Emporium?
US Open continued match analysis is available for £49.99 here
English Football - Premier League Games Stuart analyses the week's games in the Premier League, free to access here
Premier League Statistical Analysis – still FREE to all registered users and available weekly here
English Football - Championship GamesStuart analyses the week's games in the Championship, free to access here
English Non League Football - Conference Games - Alan analyses the week's games in the Conference, free to access here
Football by Brodders - across European leagues is available here
The NFL 2014-15season begins on 1st September. Ante-post season bets and pre-season match selections have been published through August and Neil Channing will be providing his legendary write ups on all the games every week for the 17 weeks of regular games.
