Weekly Articles "Road to Riches" by Rich 'Tighty' Prew

The Road to Riches: Weekend 7th-8th February

Posted on 2 Feb 2015 09:55 in Weekly Articles "Road to Riches" by Rich 'Tighty' Prew

Coming Up this weekend

- Football,  including the North London and Merseyside derbies and the final of the African Cup of Nations

- Rugby, the start of the 2015 Six Nations on Friday night with Wales v England followed by Italy v Ireland and France v Scotland on Saturday

- Racing, including national hunt meetings at Newbury (the Betfair hurdle, see below), Uttoxeter and Wolverhampton

- Tennis, the ATP tour moves back to Europe with the conclusion of events in Montpellier and Zagreb

- Golf, the  European Tour at the Maybank Malaysian Open in Kuala Lumpur and the USPGA Tour at the Farmers Insurance Open in San Diego, California.

- Cricket, the 2015 Cricket World Cup starts next week in Australasia and warm up fixtures take place across Australia and New Zealand this weekend. A free Cricket World Cup Preview has been published here, and a free Sub Market preview is here


Premier League Darts (5th Feb-21st May 2015)

The 10 player tournament will be held on 16 successive Thursday nights from Feb 5th  through May 21st 2015.

Nigel Seeley published his outright preview this week and is providing weekly updates on all the matches. The first week's selections produced a profit.

The preview begins:

"During the next sixteen weeks we will be giving you all the best tips from this marathon event and after our pre-tournament selection of Gary Anderson at the World Championship we are confident we will nail some big winners again in this one over the next three months"

Premier League Darts (full 16 week package)
£99.99 Sign Up Here

Free Tip of the Week     

This weekend Neil Channing looks at the Betfair Hurdle at Newbury (the 3.35pm race), Britain's richest handicap hurdle.

"The 3.35 at Newbury is one of the most valuable and historic handicaps of the season so that also makes it one of the most competitive. The good news is though that the bookies offer a really generous FIVE places on a 24-runner handicap as they think the competitive nature makes it the perfect situation for a loss leader. It does mean that at 1/4 of the win price you are basically getting a great place bet on any horse and that the negative equity you give up on your win bet will be easily eclipsed by positive equity which you gain on the place. Ironically the bookmakers are putting all their marketing energy into the race that is clearly the worst of the day for them.

The fact that the race is so tough to win means that you must have something up your sleeve that the handicapper has not seen and that is why younger horses do well in this one. The fact is though that the form of last year's Triumph Hurdle and the general form of the juveniles last year has not stacked up. They were useless. I'm going to narrow this down by tossing all the now-5-year-olds out and that gets rid of the front two in the betting plus a few more. I'm going to pick two horses each-way who are both from stables in form, who are both improving. Before I mention them there were three I nearly picked and I could even have five bets in this race, that's how good it is for punters. The nearly ones were Amore Alato who is a decent price with Lizzie Kelly's claim being well worth it, Ballybolley is making his handicap debut, it's a stable I like and a big price, very unexposed and tough to rule out, Jolly's Cracked It is trained by a brilliant young trainer in Harry Fry, the horse tootled round Sandown without doing much last time and it's mark is probably hidden.

The two I'm going for are On Tour who, despite being a seven-year old, has only run four times over hurdles. Definitely will be staying well however soft it goes there and will relish the fast pace that this will be run at. Seems very solid to place for me and he's had a nice break to protect the handicap mark. My main problem with this one is we could have run into the Pricewise horse so it may be hard to get on.

My other horse is Fascino Rustico is also a 7-year old, it's had seven runs over hurdles but this is the first in a handicap. I just love the Skelton yard and this one could be anything. Goes well on soft ground, not so solid to place perhaps and could do with jumping better but a very fair price.

 
I'm having 12 Points each-way On Tour at 12/1 1/4 12345 with many firms.
 
I'm having 8 Points each-way Fascino Rustico at 14/1 1/4 12345 with many firms."

Cheltenham Festival Tuesday 10th - Friday 13th March 2015

Watch Neil's video with his first free tip

Festival Package details coming soon

Open your SportingBet account here to back Neil's free tip and get a £50 FREE bet as well

Choose either 'Bet £5 Get £20' or a '100% bonus up to £100'

Sportingbet Cheltenham Countdown 2015: Champion Hurdle watch HERE


Sign up to Brodders' tips:

All Brodders bets since inception are currently showing a ROI of +7.16% on over 800 bets (at 27th January 2015)

Brodders is currently covering games in the African Cup of Nations in addition to his usual leagues.

Subscription to Brodders' write ups, analysis and bets is £50 amonth. You can join at any time

Subscribe here


Bookmaker reviews and advice

Getting the best price available is very important for all those who take their betting seriously.

Please open an account with all those bookmakers on the page on this link that you do not already have an account with using the links provided.

Skrill and Neteller Accounts: Bonus Cashback

As always we are trying to help our users make the most from their sportsbetting. Here is a simple way to increase your bank roll risk free. If you don't have a Skrill or Neteller account you can open them here and receive great monthly bonuses in association with eWallet-Optimizer, one of our marketing partners, plus plenty of other benefits.

Please use sign up code: bebonus

eWallet-Optimizer

Access great cashback incentives from transfers to bookmaking, gaming and online poker sites, which are credited to you just for opening your accounts through us. If you already have an account, check with us to see if you might still be eligible here.

SKRILL:

  • Monthly cashback bonus 0.4% - 0.5% of transfers (plus any Skrill Loyalty Club Bonus, +0.2% typically, and Promotions).
  • $20 sign up bonus for new accounts too.
  • Faster Skrill VIP upgrades plus extra cash bonus of up to 100 EUR.

NETELLER:

  • Monthly eWallet Optimizer Bonuses with instant NETELLER Pro membership status.
  • Plus better support for both with higher transfer and MasterCard limits.
  • To open your account, simply follow this link to our partner site eWallet-Optimizer and use sign up code bebonus when completing your enquiry: open your Skrill or Neteller account here

There are literally hundreds of pounds on offer from bookmakers just for signing up through Bettingemporium.com


How to Calculate Expected Value

The Expected Value of a bet tells us how much we can expect to win (on average) per bet, and as such is the most valuable calulcation a bettor can make when, for example comparing bookmakers.

What is Expected Value?

The concept of expected value (EV) is used to evaluate which option you should choose to maximise gains and minimise losses. It excludes variables like fun or personal satisfaction. Expected Value (EV) is essentially a positive (+EV) or negative (-EV) indicator that should guide you in making the best decision. EV allows us to estimate what bets are profitable and which ones are not.

How to Calculate Expected Value 

The formula for calculating Expected Value is relatively easy. Multiply your probability of winning by the amount you could win per bet, and subtract the probability of losing multiplied by the amount you stand to lose per bet:

Expected value (EV) = wager + (expected win – expected loss)

For example, if you were to bet £10 on heads in a coin toss, and you were to receive £11 every time you got it right, the EV would be 0.5.

This means that if you were to make the same bet on heads over and over again, you can expect to win an average of £0.50 for each bet of £10.

Sportsbetting Expected Value (EV)

Expected value in sports betting involves the same sort of calculations: you know the house edge but don’t know your real odds of winning and losing. This is where knowledge and experience to estimate them adequately come into play.

Team X is playing team Y. The odds for team X is 4/1. You estimate that team X will win 40% of the time. Your expected value (EV) in betting on team X would be positive.

Expected value (EV) = wager + (expected win – expected loss)

In this scenario, it would look like this:

Expected value (EV) = 1 + ((0.4 x 4) – (0.6 x 1)) => 1.9

This means that betting on team A in such a game would be extremely favourable as you would turn £1 into £1.9 on average.

Another way to calculate EV is the following:

1. Find the decimal odds for each outcome (win, lose, draw)
2. Calculate the potential winnings for each outcome by multiplying your stake by the decimal, and then subtract the stake.
3. Divide 1 by the odds of an outcome to calculate the probability of that outcome
4. Substitute this information into the above formula.

For example, when Chelsea (1.263) play Leicester (13.5), with a draw at 6.5, a bet of £10 on Leicester to win would provide potential winnings of £125, with the probability of that happening at 0.074 (1 over 13.5) or 7.4%.

The probability of this outcome not occurring is the sum of Chelsea and a draw, or 79% + 15% = 93%

The amount lost per bet is the initial wager – £10. Therefore the complete formula, rounding up, looks like:

(0.07 x £125) – (0.93 x £10) = -£0.55

The EV is negative for this bet, suggesting that you will lose an average of £0.55 for every £10 staked.

But if you calculate your own probability and this probability differs from the implied probability of the odds, you could see where to find a positive EV, and therefore the best chance to win.

For example, the odds imply that Leicester only have a 7% chance of winning. If you calculate a 10% chance of winning, the EV for betting on a Leicester win jumps to £3.20.


What else is on Betting Emporium?

Cricket World Cup Preview: Analysis of the World Cup outright which starts next week in Australia and New Zealand, free to access here and free Sub Market preview here

English Football - Leagues and Cups: Stuart analyses the week's games in Premier League and Championship, free to access here

Premier League Statistical Analysis: You can read this here still FREE to all registered users


Betting Emporium results

The detailed results page has been updated as have the spreadsheets with the detailed bets. They can be found by clicking RESULTS

£10 per point on every recommended bet since  launch in Feb 2013 would be winning £13,824 (as at 27-1-15)

All bets have an ROI +5.35% and Horse Racing has an ROI +20.89%

There is also a Frequently Asked Questions Section

The Road to Riches: Weekend 31st January-1st February

Posted on 25 Jan 2015 10:14 in Weekly Articles "Road to Riches" by Rich 'Tighty' Prew

Coming Up this weekend

- Superbowl XLIX in Arizona between the Seattle Seahawks and the New England Patriots on Sunday night

- Football, with Chelsea against Manchester City one of the biggest games of the season in the Premier League

- Racing, national hunt meetings at Sandown, Wetherby and Ffos Las

- Tennis, the final weekend of the Australian Open in Melbourne

- Golf, on European Tour the Omega Dubai Desert Classic and on the USPGA Tour the Waste Management Phoenix Open, Scottsdale, Arizona.

- Darts this weekend sees the PDC Unibet Masters at the ArenaMK and features the top 16 players from the PDC Order of Merit following the World Darts Championship,

- Cricket, preparations for the World Cup continue with the ODI Triangular series between Australia, India and England and ODI internationals between New Zealand and Pakistan


NFL Superbowl (Sunday February 1st )

Neil has published a FREE preview on the Superbowl: you can read it HERE

As well as analysis on the Superbowl itself Neil will also be sharing all his prop bets, and some have already been posted. His record on this type of bet is very good over the years. Last year for Denver v Seattle in Superbowl XLVII we posted 8 winners from 11 bets (73%) with an ROI of 51%

If you subscribed to the NFL playoffs, you do not have to subscribe again and you will automatically have access.

Superbowl XLIX (1st Feb) - Write Ups & analysis including all Neil's prop bets

£25 Sign Up Here


Australian Open Tennis - January 19th to February 1st by Nigel Seeley

Analysis of the final stages of the first grand slam of the season

Australian Open Tennis Championship (full package)
£49.99 Sign Up Here

Free Tip of the Week   

A look ahead to this year's Six Nations which begins next week. The first match of the 2015 Championship is a Friday night fixture between Wales and England at the Millennium Stadium in Cardiff. The following day, Ireland travel to Rome to begin the defence of their Six Nations title against Italy at Stadio Olimpico. Also on the Saturday, France and Scotland get their Six Nations campaigns underway at Stade de France in Paris.

The outright market for the Six Nations currently looks as follows:

Ireland 7/4

England 7/4

Wales 7/2

France 7/1

33/1 Bar

The outright market closely reflects the IRB world rankings, in which Ireland are 3rd and England 4th

Team Previews

Ireland

Defending champions Ireland shortened after an unbeaten Autumn series in which they beat Australia and South Africa. The 14 point win over South Africa was the best by a Northern Hemisphere side for several years. They have several key advantages for this Six Nations. Firstly the schedule, which gives them co-favourites England and France at home. Secondly they have the best player in the Championship at a key position, fly half Jonny Sexton (Ireland are fortunate to have Italy first up, a game Sexton is likely to miss with injury) and thirdly they have a consistent gameplan that they execute ruthlessly

the key game will be their fourth, away in Cardiff

Verdict: Clear favourites, but all the above is fairly priced in

England

Various statistical studies have demonstrated that home advantage is significant in the Six Nations. This is in part because France are such poor travellers but it applies across the six teams. The fact that this year England will have to travel away to face Ireland and Wales does not bode well for them and nor does the current spate of injuries to a number of players. England have more depth than any other team in the competition but it is a big ask to win the championship with this schedule and these injuries even before we consider problems with achieving a consistent style. They are always going to be competitive with their forward strength, but will need a more expansive game to win the title

Verdict: 2-1 or below represents no value at all.

Wales

While England, partly because of injuries, go into the Six Nations without a settled side, Wales have an established line-up: 12 of the regular starters in the 2012 grand slam remain in the most experienced squad in the compeitition. Wales has been plagued by inconsistency since 2012, the form of key players who went to play in France dipped and most recent form from the Autumn is mixed also. A win against South Africa wascounter-balanced by losses against Australia and New Zealand shipping 74 points.

The key here is establishing parity up front, if they do then the back five will do a lot of damage to opponents. It helps also that they have Ireland and England at home

Verdict: Likely to go very close to the title again with 2015 (and the Autumn World Cup) the last hurrah of Warren Gatland's former grand slam winning side

France

More talented than their 7/1 odds suggest, but this is the tougher of their bi-annual schedules, travelling to both Dublin and Twickenham in their three away games. Perennially hamstrung by inconsistent selections, there is more of the same this year with several players selected as first choice in the Autumn Internationals not making the 31 man squad for the Six Nations. There is huge flair in the team out wide and a superb back row, both often let down by problems at the main decision making positions at half-back. If you knew they would perform consistently you would be all over them at 7-1

Verdict: A watching brief for me, sub-market plays should be interesting (points, try-scorers etc)

Scotland

Fast improving under coach Vern Cotter, could finish as high as third. A competitive set of forwards, good half backs, reliable kicking game and some flair in midfield for the first time in several seasons are grounds for optimism.

Verdict: Difficult to see them winning the competition, but expect improvement and at least two wins

Italy

Bottom last year, but a lot closer to the pack than in previous years (a narrow defeat in Cardiff and Scotland needed a last minute drop goal to beat them)  and slowing closing the gap with the rest. More signs of improvement in the Autumn Internationals.

Verdict: They win a game this year, but still get the wooden spoon

Recommendations: I don't think a side wins a Grand Slam this year (one of the better 8/11 shots you will see for those who don't mind a short one) and expect the title to come down to the last weekend and be settled on points difference. Opposing England and Ireland on value grounds, and would consider Ireland the stronger of the two teams in this schedule. I consider Wales as very close to the two favourites and have both of them at home.

20 points Wales to win the Six Nations. Prices above 3/1 (I wouldn't take less) have been going this week, probably related to the raft of injury news around England. 100/30 is around in a few "secondary" places but I'll use 16/5 Sportingbet here  

I'll have some game by game coverage of Six Nations games through the next couple of months, particularly with an eye on Scotland causing a surprise or two


Cheltenham Festival Tuesday 10th - Friday 13th March 2015

Watch Neil's video with his first free tip

Festival Package details coming soon

Open your SportingBet account here to back Neil's free tip and get a £50 FREE bet as well

Choose either 'Bet £5 Get £20' or a '100% bonus up to £100'

Sportingbet Cheltenham Countdown 2015: Champion Hurdle watch HERE


Sign up to Brodders' tips:

All Brodders bets since inception are currently showing a ROI of +7.16% on over 800 bets (at 27th January 2015)

Brodders is currently covering games in the African Cup of Nations in addition to his usual leagues.

Subscription to Brodders' write ups, analysis and bets is £50 amonth. You can join at any time

Subscribe here


Bookmaker reviews and advice

Getting the best price available is very important for all those who take their betting seriously.

Please open an account with all those bookmakers on the page on this link that you do not already have an account with using the links provided.

Skrill and Neteller Accounts: Bonus Cashback

As always we are trying to help our users make the most from their sportsbetting. Here is a simple way to increase your bank roll risk free. If you don't have a Skrill or Neteller account you can open them here and receive great monthly bonuses in association with eWallet-Optimizer, one of our marketing partners, plus plenty of other benefits.

Please use sign up code: bebonus

eWallet-Optimizer

Access great cashback incentives from transfers to bookmaking, gaming and online poker sites, which are credited to you just for opening your accounts through us. If you already have an account, check with us to see if you might still be eligible here.

SKRILL:

  • Monthly cashback bonus 0.4% - 0.5% of transfers (plus any Skrill Loyalty Club Bonus, +0.2% typically, and Promotions).
  • $20 sign up bonus for new accounts too.
  • Faster Skrill VIP upgrades plus extra cash bonus of up to 100 EUR.

NETELLER:

  • Monthly eWallet Optimizer Bonuses with instant NETELLER Pro membership status.
  • Plus better support for both with higher transfer and MasterCard limits.
  • To open your account, simply follow this link to our partner site eWallet-Optimizer and use sign up code bebonus when completing your enquiry: open your Skrill or Neteller account here

There are literally hundreds of pounds on offer from bookmakers just for signing up through Bettingemporium.com


"When the final score doesn't matter"

Before the mid-1980s, NFL bets in Vegas sporting books had been limited to only three options: (1) Moneyline bets; (2) Point spread bets and (3)  Over/Under totals bets. With their clients a small band of hardcore sports bettors, the independent sportsbooks had little incentive to expand betting offerings. Then a new generation of former gamblers managing the large hotel sportsbooks started looking beyond the hardcore bettors to a new customer; casual bettors on Vegas holidays. The hotels courted these inexperienced, recreational bettors by trying to stand out from the crowd. New, more inventive bets were one way to attract attention.

At the same time, Caesar’s Palace started hosting large Super Bowl parties, inviting ex-players and ex-coaches to mingle with the public and draw crowds. For the first time, Las Vegas saw an influx of bettors for the Super Bowl. While the Super Bowl and March Madness basketball continued to grow as the biggest gambling events of the year, prop bets, for a time, still remained an afterthought.

Then came Superbowl XX and a man called William “Refrigerator” Perry, an enormous defensive tackle who the Chicago Bears used on their goal-line offense through the season. Many of us NFL fans in the UK remember him well, as this was the era when the NFL first appeared on our TV screens

With 3:30 remaining in the third quarter, the Chicago Bears led the New England Patriots 37-3. The game as a contest was done and dusted, with one of the most dominating teams of any NFL era about to be crowned Superbowl champions. The Bears’ offense lined up on New England’s 1-yard line. At the snap the Fridge took a hand-off from quarterback Jim McMahon and lumbered into action. He split the defenders and fell into the endzone, the final touchdown of the game.

In the buildup to the game, Las Vegas sportsbooks looking to capitalise on the country’s fascination with the massive rookie had posted odds on whether Perry would score a touchdown. As loud and brash coach Mike Ditka publicly down-played Perry’s role, the odds soared to as high as 75/1. Then the national media picked up the story. As the publicity flowed in to Las Vegas, so did money. By kick-off the odds dropped to 2/1.

The Perry touchdown won hundreds of thousands of dollars for bettors all along the Strip. For the casinos however, that loss would be spare change compared to the millions and millions of dollars they would ultimately make because of that one single play.

After the success of the Perry bet in 1986, Super Bowl prop bets rapidly grew in popularity. By the early 1990s most books offered somewhere between 30 and 50 prop bets for each Super Bowl. Then circumstances well outside of Las Vegas’ control threatened to affect their business on the biggest sports betting day of the year. Beginning in 1990, for six of the next eight years the Super Bowls were one-sided blowouts as NFC powers annually dominated over-matched AFC opponents by lop-sided scores of 55-10, 52-17, 49-26 and 35-21. Even worse, many of these games were predictable blow-outs, and predictable blow-outs generate little betting interest. In response, the casinos needed to provide bettors other incentives to gamble. Prop bets unrelated to the outcome but not resolved until the clock runs out were the obvious answer.

Move forward nearly 25 years and this weekend you will be able to bet on hundreds of Superbowl Props with UK bookmakers. The scope of bets offered around the globe is so wide that you can, if you are so inclined, bet on any of the following this weekend

National anthem

The over/under time on Idina Menzel (of Frozen "Let it go" fame) completing the national anthem is 2 minutes, 2 seconds.

Belichick’s hoodie

You can bet on what colour hoodie Patriots coach Bill Belichick will wear: Grey is odds-on favourite.

Gatorade colour

The colour of the Gatorade that will be dumped on the winning coach can be bet. Orange is a 6/4 favourite.

“Deflated” mentions

How many times will “deflated” footballs get mentioned? The over/under has been set at three times, which seems extremely low.

Gisele sightings

How many times will Tom Brady's model wife Gisele Bundchen be shown on camera? The over/under is 1.5 times

William "The Refrigerator" Perry has a lot to answer for.


What else is on Betting Emporium?

English Football - Leagues and Cups Stuart analyses the week's games in F A Cup fourth round, free to access here

Premier League Statistical Analysis – You can read this here still FREE to all registered users


Betting Emporium results

The detailed results page has been updated as have the spreadsheets with the detailed bets. They can be found by clicking RESULTS

£10 per point on every recommended bet since  launch in Feb 2013 would be winning £13,824 (as at 27-1-15)

All bets have an ROI +5.35% and Horse Racing has an ROI +20.89%

There is also a Frequently Asked Questions Section

The Road to Riches: Weekend 24th-25th January

Posted on 18 Jan 2015 10:03 in Weekly Articles "Road to Riches" by Rich 'Tighty' Prew
Coming Up this weekend

- Football, F A Cup 4th round weekend (see article below)

- Racing, national hunt meetings at Cheltenham, Doncaster and Uttoxeter

- Tennis,  the Australian Open in Melbourne continues with last sixteen matches this weekend

- Golf, on the European Tour the Commercial Bank Qatar Masters in Qatar and on the USPGA Tour the Humana Challenge in California

- Cricket, preparations for the World Cup continue with the ODI Triangular series between Australia, India and England and ODI internationals between New Zealand and India (see tip below)

- Rugby Union, the last pool games of the European Champions Cup will decide the quarter final line up for after the Six Nations in February and March


NFL Superbowl (February 1st 2015)

Neil has just published a FREE preview on the Superbowl: you can read it HERE

As well as analysis on the Superbowl itself next weekend Neil will also be sharing all his prop bets. His record on this type of bet is very good over the years. Last year for Denver v Seattle in Superbowl XLVII we posted 8 winners from 11 bets (73%) with an ROI of 51%

If you subscribed to the NFL playoffs, you do not have to subscribe again and you will automatically have access.

Superbowl XLIX (1st Feb) - Write Ups & analysis including all Neil's prop bets

£25 Sign Up Here


Australian Open Tennis - January 19th to February 1st by Nigel Seeley

Match by match analysis and write ups are ongoing after a successful first week of tips:

Australian Open Tennis Championship (full package)
£49.99 Sign Up Here

Free Tip of the Week   

Today with the cricket World Cup only a few weeks away a look at the game in the current warm-up series between two lively World cup outsiders, hosts New Zealand and Sri Lanka.

The sixth game in the seven match series takes place on Saturday evening our time (10pm start) in Dunedin. New Zealand lead the series 3-1 after scoring 360-5 after falling to 93-5 in the last game.

New Zealand are in the World Cup reckoning because they are a much improved team with an imaginative captain, lots of  batting depth and one of the best seam attacks in world cricket. Sri Lanka have less strength in depth but on their day can beat anyone and it is they that are the focus today, particularly their batsmen.

The core of the Sri Lankan batting has been the same three players for the past decade, Tillekaratne Dilshan and two all-time greats who retire from the one day game after the World Cup, Kumar Sangakarra and Mahela Jayawardene. They fill three of the first four spots in the batting line up and are well ahead of the rest of the team in experience and ability

So far in the four Sri Lankan innings in this series they have scored as follows:

Dilshan 295 runs, 332 balls faced, strike rate 88

Jayawardene 255 runs, 247 balls faced, strike rate 103

Sangakarra 127 runs, 156 balls faced, strike rate 81

Strike rate shows the runs scored per hundred balls faced. Below these three batsman the next highest Sri Lanka scorer has 89 runs, as if we needed it a sign of how dependent the team’s totals are on the “big three”

Dilshan has two centuries in the series and is coming off a hundred in the massive chase on the same ground on Thursday. Formerly renowned as a ferocious hitter and little else, he has changed style since the change of playing conditions in 2012, the onus now on saving wickets at the top of the order, to have wickets in hand for the later power-play and help achieve scores of 300+. This helps explain why his strike rate is lower than Jayawardene’s, typically batting later in an innings.

As we will see in the forthcoming World Cup, those batsmen in and well set in the mid to late part of the innings are going to have a big advantage in strike rates with five fielders mandated to be within the 30-yard circle at all times in an innings with only three fielders permitted outside the circle for the five Power-play overs to be taken by the batting team before the 40th over.

Looking at the “Top Sri-Lankan batsman” sub market for the game on Saturday night sees the following:

Sangakarra 11/4

Dilshan 100/30

Jayawardene 7/2

Bar 11/2

On current form, the favourite looks wrong and priced off his form in 2013-14 and it helps that we can discount so many of the XI outside the three named above from our calculations, in the majority of games. For example Mathews is a late order hitter and Thirimanne has technical flaws. They might come off, but the percentage play when betting on batsmen sub-markets in this Sri Lanka team will always be one of the three stars.

Jayawardene is the most consistent player (three scores of 50 plus in four innings this series, Dilshan is more of a “boom-bust” betting proposition), with the highest strike rate and yet the outsider of the three main contenders.

Ladbrokes will lay us 4/1 too, and i think eh should be joint favourite.

15 points Mahela Jayawardene Top Sri Lanka batsman (6th ODI v New Zealand, Dunedin 24th January) 4/1 Ladbrokes, 7/2 generally available

 


Sign up to Brodders' tips:

All Brodders bets since inception are currently showing a ROI of +7.11% (at 8th January 2015)

Brodders is currently covering games in the African Cup of Nations in addition to his usual leagues.

Subscription to Brodders' write ups, analysis and bets is £50 amonth. You can join at any time

Subscribe here


Bookmaker reviews and advice

Getting the best price available is very important for all those who take their betting seriously.

Please open an account with all those bookmakers on the page on this link that you do not already have an account with using the links provided.

Skrill and Neteller Accounts: Bonus Cashback

As always we are trying to help our users make the most from their sportsbetting. Here is a simple way to increase your bank roll risk free. If you don't have a Skrill or Neteller account you can open them here and receive great monthly bonuses in association with eWallet-Optimizer, one of our marketing partners, plus plenty of other benefits.

Please use sign up code: bebonus

eWallet-Optimizer

Access great cashback incentives from transfers to bookmaking, gaming and online poker sites, which are credited to you just for opening your accounts through us. If you already have an account, check with us to see if you might still be eligible here.

SKRILL:

  • Monthly cashback bonus 0.4% - 0.5% of transfers (plus any Skrill Loyalty Club Bonus, +0.2% typically, and Promotions).
  • $20 sign up bonus for new accounts too.
  • Faster Skrill VIP upgrades plus extra cash bonus of up to 100 EUR.

NETELLER:

  • Monthly eWallet Optimizer Bonuses with instant NETELLER Pro membership status.
  • Plus better support for both with higher transfer and MasterCard limits.
  • To open your account, simply follow this link to our partner site eWallet-Optimizer and use sign up code bebonus when completing your enquiry: open your Skrill or Neteller account here

Matchbook

Matchbook are a genuine bookmaking alternative for UK punters who are missing the likes of innacle and SBOBet. Matchbook are an exchange with good market liquidity and low commission rates (they charge 1.15% commission on all bets). They are very competitive on soccer and tennis and particularly NFL - especially closer to kick off with very thin margins. They also plan to add horse racing in early 2015. Matchbook are a must have for BettingEmporium.com customers. Open your Matchbook account here and get a £25 FREE bet.

There are literally hundreds of pounds on offer from bookmakers just for signing up through Bettingemporium.com

 


"The Cup is a great leveller"

So we are used to being told. In fact, it is arguable that in recent years the betting markets have failed to recognise how comprehensively the FA Cup is now dominated by the bigger clubs, with fewer upsets than ever.

It used to be said that the best team won the Premiership and the luckiest team won the FA Cup. Now the best team, or one of the very best teams, usually win the FA Cup as well.

During the twenty competitions from 1994 to 2014, the FA Cup was won five times each by Arsenal and Chelsea, four times by Manchester United, twice by Liverpool and once by Manchester City and Everton. In fact in the last twenty years there are only two "outlier" winners outside the "big five" at the time, Portsmouth in 2008 and Wigan Athletic in 2013. This is latterly in an era where the financial importance of every Premier League position and qualification for Europe leads too much rotated sides for FA Cup games and you would think more opportunities for upsets. However there is little evidence of it

Inferior teams will sometimes beat superior opponents but in the FA Cup it doesn't happen any more often than it should. We might think back and remember Wycombe winning a quarter final at Leicester. We forget all the other bottom-division teams who did not beat Premiership opponents. In fact, during the last twelve seasons, no other team from the lowliest section of the Football League have won away to Premiership opponents. Psychologically, in our search for the upset, we fail to notice the unspectacular results that are far more routine.

I looked at FA Cup results recorded during the last twelve seasons by Premier League teams against Championship opponents and League One teams against League Two opponents. Premiership teams scored an average of 0.9 goals per game more than Championship opponents and League One teams scored an average of 0.6 goals per game more than League Two opponents.

We can gauge the relative strength of these divisions from the results of clubs promoted and relegated between them. In the same twelve seasons, the average goal difference per game of clubs relegated from the Premiership to the Championship improved by 1.0, while the average goal difference per game of clubs promoted from the Championship to the Premiership deteriorated by 1.0.

The average goal difference per game of clubs relegated from League One to League Two improved by 0.7, while the average goal difference per game of teams promoted from League Two to League One deteriorated by 0.7.

The gap between the Premier League and Championship in one-off FA Cup ties was very similar, though not identical, to what it was in ordinary league fixtures. Likewise, the gap between League One and League Two.

So why might there be fewer upsets now than in yesteryear, despite squad rotation and in some cases questionable commitment to the F A Cup from leading teams?

After all this year, all us romantics had to go on in the third round was a QPR team losing in the third round to Sheffield United and the next biggest shock was probably Rochdale's win over Forest. Both barely registered on the upsets scale compared to an FA Cup round of 25 years ago

a) Squad depth is greater for the top teams than it ever was. The financial resources gained from every growing TV deals have led dramatic wage inflation and to greater strength in depth for top flight teams compared to the rest.

b) Playing conditions are more "big club" friendly. Newer stadiums across the league, undersoil heating..no more sloping pitches, mud baths and reasons for unmotivated Premier league players to mail it in. When AFC Wimbledon hosted Liverpool at the Kingsmeadow Stadium, the pitch was as close to perfect as it could've been - the only thing that gave the game the David vs Goliath feeling was the presence of Adebayo Akinfenwa, whose unorthodox physique and playing style caused Liverpool trouble throughout

There is no evidence for the almost universally accepted belief that the FA Cup is a great leveller, indeed these days it is less true than ever. There have been a few upsets. In the past four competitions we've seen Stevenage 3-1 Newcastle (2011), Leeds 2-1 Tottenham (2013) and Oldham 3-2 Liverpool (2013). Proper surprises, usually no more than one or two per year, which is roughly par, just don't go betting on too many of them happening.


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The Road to Riches: Weekend 17th-18th January

Posted on 12 Jan 2015 10:18 in Weekly Articles "Road to Riches" by Rich 'Tighty' Prew
Coming Up this weekend

- NFL Play-Offs:  The NFC and AFC Conference games.  The play-offs continue this weekend with two games on Sunday. Green Bay, our ante-post Superbowl pick, at Seattle and Indianapolis at New England. For all Neil's play-off analysis and selections through to the Superbowl sign up here

- Football  Premier League and a full Football league programme with Manchester City against Arsenal a highlight on Sunday afternoon

- Racing, national hunt meetings at Ascot, Haydock and Taunton

- Snooker The 2015 Masters concludes at the Alexandra Palace with the O'Sullivan/Robertson semi-final on Saturday at 1pm set to be a cracker. 

- Tennis, the 2015 season continues with tournaments in Sydney and Auckland building up to the first grand slam of the season, the Australian Open in Melbourne next week

- Golf, the new season continues with the USPGA Tour at the Sony Open in Hawaii, and the European Tour's Abu Dhabi HSBC Golf Championship.

- Cricket, warm ups for the World Cup continue with Australia playing India in the Tri-series and South Africa hosting the West Indies in One day Internationals


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DIVISIONAL ROUND - Saturday 10th and Sunday 11th January 2014

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Free Tip of the Week   

For an NFL prop bettor, we are about to reach the best weekend of the year with the Superbowl where odds-setters will offer us a wealth of opportunities. With the two NFL conference games this weekend there is also a wider than normal range to choose from.

Of the two games, New England is a tough prop team to bet, as Bill Belichick is very unpredictable in his game planning versus other coaches. Last week for example saw trick plays and alingnment wrinkles. My focus instead is on the Green Bay at Seattle game, in part because i have ante-post positions on Green Bay recommended which were a motivation to look at the game very closely.

At first glance, Green Bay face a huge task in Seattle. The Seahawks have one of the great defenses and are the first team to lead NFL in fewest points per game and yards per game allowed in consecutive seasons since the legendary 1985-86 Chicago Bears. Seattle have a renowned home advantage and the Packers, with 318 points at home and 168 on the road during the regular season created a record, as no team in NFL history has a bigger home/road points split. On top of that Aaron Rodgers has a calf tear, beat Dallas on one leg and this weekend is likely to be similarly restricted against a far better defense.

I'll leave Neil to talk about points spreads, points totals etc in his NFL Play off package (sign up here) and instead take all of the above and look at what strategy Green Bay have to use to give themselves the best chance of winning. As I found last week, with Denver rather mystifyingly deciding to rely on big plays from an injured Peyton Manning to win rather than running the ball consistently, this might not be the approach adopted but to my mind its their best chance and if correct helps us identify where some prop value may be.

Teams that have been unable to run the football against Seattle fall behind and typically get stuck in passing situations where the defense knows a pass is coming on virtually every play. That plays directly into Seattle’s hands as it allows their pass rush to ignore run responsibilities and just attack the quarterback. With the strength of Seattle’s secondary, the Seahawks have the players to cover receivers in the back end as well.

Seattle kept the Packers in check in their 36-16 win over Green Bay in Week 1. Eddie Lacy was held to 37 yards on 12 carries before leaving with a concussion in the fourth quarter, and the Packers had just 80 yards on the ground. However, the Packers rushing attack is much-improved since then. Over their final eight games (seven regular season games and last week’s playoff game against Dallas), the Packers averaged 137.25 rushing yards per game. That rate would have put Green Bay fourth in the league in rushing if extrapolated over a full season.

“From the first eight games to the second eight games, their rushing stats have flip flopped and that’s a big change in their approach,” Seattle head coach Pete Carroll said.

After watching the Packers rely on Lacy extensively in their win last weekend, I believe Lacy should be the focal point of the offensive game plan in this matchup. Lacy should get more attempts than the first game in the rematch as part of a ball-control game plan designed to alleviate some of the pressure on Rodgers. If Lacy finishes with 25 or more attempts (admittedly this is a very small sample, Green Bay is 3-0 when Lacy receives 20-plus carries in a game this season), the Packers should have a shot.

On the other side, "Beastmode" Marshawn Lynch is priced up as a short first touchdown favourite in every game he plays. Not only are Seattle favourites every week, especially at home, but they are a conservative offense without too much big play potential on the outside and Lynch himself is the focus of the offense. He doesn't represent great value though, 7/2 in places and 5/1 generally

Contrast that with Lacy who we can back at 9/1 first touchdown scorer and should get the carries to make this a really interesting price for all the reasons above. Green Bay may get the ball first (Carolina did against Seattle in the divisional round) and Lacy should be the feature on the first drive. In any case with the combination of the Seattle defense and a fairly workmanlike offense for the home team, we could well get a couple of opportunities to drive for the first touchdown.

10 points Eddie Lacy First touchdown scorer Green Bay @ Seattle 9/1 BetVictor or William Hill 


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"They are on a good run, so they are a good thing today" "They are on a bad run, and its getting worse"

Back the team has not lost any of their last eight games?  but oppose the team who had not won any of their last eight games?

Actually, a perfectly ordinary mid-table team are likely to run up both of these sequences at least once in a season.

A mid-table team will usually win 36 per cent of their games, draw 28 per cent and lose 36 per cent. In other words, they will avoid defeat in 64 per cent of the games they play.  I got out some old Rothmans annuals and flicked through the pages of teams who had finished halfway down their divisions. What I found was that each team I checked did indeed run up at least one sequence of eight or so games without a defeat and another of eight or so games without a victory.

You can be sure that a lot of punters toward the end of each of these good runs were beginning to think that the team had got better, and toward the end of each of these bad runs they were beginning to think that the team had got worse.

In fact, often neither conclusion is true.

Since the start of the Premier League in 1992, the team who won the league failed to win 37 per cent of the games they play. Even Arsenal, when they went unbeaten throughout season 2003-04, failed to win 32 per cent of the games they played. This season (and we might argue that the resources of the top few teams compared to the rest should lead to greater distribution of results top four relative to the rest over the years) Chelsea have failed to win 28% and Manchester City 33% of their 21 games.

In other words, the best teams in England fail to win approximately one out of every three games they play.

As a sequence of good results gets longer, we should progressively upgrade our assessment of the team and as a sequence of bad results gets longer, we should progressively downgrade our assessment of the team but not as dramatically as most people do.

Going back to 1992, fewer than half of teams in the Premier League who won six games in a row won the next game. Similarly, of all the teams who lost six games in a row, fewer than half lost the next game.

All this points to the contrarian approach, seeking value based on price or an angle rather than the momentum of recent results. It is the times that the teams on a strong run lose that the bookmakers love, they are in the vast majority of the weekend's accumulators for starters.


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The Road to Riches: Weekend 10th-11th January

Posted on 5 Jan 2015 09:37 in Weekly Articles "Road to Riches" by Rich 'Tighty' Prew

Coming Up this weekend

- NFL Play-Offs:  Divisional Round week.  The play-offs continue this weekend with four games over Saturday and Sunday in the Divisional Round. For all Neil's play-off analysis and selections through to the Superbowl sign up here

- Football with the return of the Premier League and a full Football league programme. At the top of a closer Premier League than it was, Chelsea host Newcastle and Manchester City are at Everton

- Racing, national hunt meetings at Kempton (including the Lanzarote Hurdle), Wetherby and Warwick (including the Classic Chase)

- Snooker The 2015 Masters begins at the Alexandra Palace on Sunday

- Tennis, the 2015 season has begun with ATP Brisbane which concludes this weekend, the beginning of the Australasian leg of the tour that culminates in the first Grand Slam of the year in Melbourne.

- Golf, the season begins with the European Tour in Johannesburg at The South African Open Championship and the USPGA Tour at Hyundai Tournament of Champions in Hawaii.

- Cricket, a T20 series begins in Johannesburg (South Africa v West Indies) a one day intenrantional series begins in Christchurch (New Zealand v Sri Lanka) and England begin their World Cup Warm up tour in Canberra


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Free Tip of the Week   

This week, to complement Neil's work on the play offs with the NFL Divisional Round this weekend, a look at the final game this weekend (Sunday 9.40pm GMT) when the Indianapolis Colts visit the Denver Broncos.

The Broncos hosted the Colts in the season opener, winning 31-24, having led 24-7. Denver are seven point favourites for Sunday's game. Once again, i have tried to look at the teams and their strengths and likely strategies with a view to looking at sub-market value.

The Broncos have the AFC’s highest-scoring offense, averaging 30.1 points per game. They changed their offensive strategy midway through the season though, moving away from the passing game and becoming much more conservative in play-calling, running the ball a lot more with great success. There may be a couple of reasons for this, both related to the great Peyton Manning who he made more mistakes than usual in 2014, throwing 15 interceptions and was and is suffering with injury niggles too. After passing for 34 touchdowns and 323.5 yards per game in Denver's first 11 games, Manning had only five touchdown passes and 233.8 passing yards per game in the Broncos' last five games of the season.

The Colts won the AFC South on the strength of the conference’s third highest scoring offense, but their defense was too bad to overcome, at times. In all five of Indianapolis’ losses, they surrendered at least 30 points. The Colts gave up at least 42 points in their last three defeats.

The key for Denver here will be to avoid a shoot-out which gives Andrew Luck's offense a chance to be competitive. The way to do that will be to play good defense and run the ball controlling time of possession. Denver’s defense was among the best in the regular season. They ranked ninth against the pass and second against the run, allowing the fewest total yards of any AFC defense. Von Miller and DeMarcus Ware combined to record 24 sacks in 2015. Indianapolis do not have an effective run game and we will see Chris Harris the top cornerback bracketed with T Y Hilton when Indianapolis have the ball.

So, time to look at a familiar name if you read this column. C J Anderson finished with at least 80 yards rushing in each of his last three games and racked up two three-touchdown games down the stretch. No running back in the NFL had more rushing yards (648) or Touchdowns (8) in the final six weeks of the regular season than Anderson.

The last time we backed him, he had five runs from the one yard line in a touchdown-less game at that point, and we had a frustrating "value loser". In the final regular season game he shared carries with Ronnie Hillman, who was returning from injury in what was a "dead rubber" for the Broncos. Anderson had 13 carries, down from 25-30 in his great run of form. I would expect them to revert to Anderson having over 20 carries in this game.

Looking at the opportunity this time, the Colts secondary has been decent, 12th in the league with two effective cornerbacks in Vontae Davis and Greg Toler, but the run defense is comparatively poor. Indianapolis concede 113.4 yards per game on the ground. In the wild card round, even though Cincinnati fell behind early and all but abandoned the run, the Bengals still carried for over 5.2 yards per rush against the Colts. With so much attention paid to Manning and his receivers, Anderson should have a nice game.

So, hopefully, we have a nice confluence of factors here. The match-up favours the Denver running game, and the team's recent strategy has emphasised it compared to other likely touchdown options. With time of possession against an Andrew Luck side crucial, Anderson is going to get plenty of opportunities to score touchdowns.

Although we cannot say it with certainty, its likely that Denver get the ball first too. If they win the toss they will receive and if Indianapolis win the toss, it would be common for the away side to defer and get the ball at the start of the second half. The weather forecast - very cold, blizzards - might also work in favour if the running game compared to receiving touchdowns too

10 points C J Anderson First touchdown scorer Denver Broncos v Indianapolis Colts 8-1 William Hill , 7/1 generally


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"That's a huge momentum changer".

"They have the momentum, they've won eight in a row" 

How many times do we hear phrases like that during or before a sporting event? Plenty!

Well, contrary to media narratives and what we hear each week from pundits and commentators, there is a strong contrary view that sports momentum is a myth. Many of the arguments were expounded in a Freakonomics piece in 2011 which quoted an academic paper from several years ago, called "The Hot hand in Basketball: On the misperception of Random seqeunces" (available in all good bookshops) that argued that a “hot streak” is really just a random sequence that we misperceive to be more meaningful than it is. 

Bettors and fans alike are so keen to attribute a pattern to any sequence in order for it to make sense to them. In the example investigated in the paper above in the NBA, a hot hand in basketball was thought to be someone who was more likely to hit their next shot simply because they landed their last one. But the hot hand phenomenon was dispelled as untrue.

Thomas Gilovich, a professor of Psychology at Cornell discovered the fallacy. He reviewed the stats of the Philadelphia 76ers for one season. Gilovich found that not only were players not more likely to score just because they previously scored, but they actually had better odds of scoring after missing a shot. That means momentum had absolutely nothing to do with how many points a player scored.

It’s easy to mistake that for a pattern, suggesting some kind of meaning or momentum, but it’s really just a pure illustration of randomness itself.

When betting, we may look to recent momentum to help form a strategy. It’s likely to be a strategy largely built on a limited sample size, though. The outcome could deviate (sometimes for the better, sometimes for the worse) especially in small sample sizes, but over a larger period, you’ll generally see performance regress towards the mean.

So if we consider that momentum might be a myth, why all the streaks? What about those patterns? It’s just variance.

Variance is a measure of how far a set of numbers is spread out. With low variance, the set of numbers is close, but with high variance, they are far apart. High variance means that over a small period, you could win some money when you bet based on team or player momentum, but the risk is greater. If you are looking to make money and grow your bankroll in the long run, a better strategy is to stick to bets with low variance and positive expected value

Anomalies are going to happen. Teams are going to win a lot of games in a row (there are 19 and 20 game streaks ongoing in the NBA this season. In the NFL Dallas won 8 away games in a row in this season) and within games there are going to be fantastic comebacks but in a population of thousands of results over long periods of time these are anomalies.

However the statistical world cannot escape “regression to the mean.” Those streaks have very little bearing on what happens next as a predictor of betting value.  

sports momentum is a myth. Just because a team is on a winning streak doesn’t mean they will definitely win their next game. Just because the Irish upset favorites on their path to the top didn’t mean they were going beat the Tide.

Of course Notre Dame’s odds increased with every win of the season, but ultimately, after evaluating different player and team data, it’d be clear that Alabama had a significant advantage to win. Beware of narratives and motives behind them. It’s more positive for the media to sell a game by saying Notre Dame has “grit” and “moxie” than saying “Alabama will clean house.” It all boils down to stats and analysis when it comes to betting on sports.

Making Sense of Things

Bettors and fans alike are so keen to attribute a pattern to any sequence in order for it to make sense to them. For example, in the NBA, a hot hand in basketball was thought to be someone who was more likely to hit their next shot simply because they landed their last one. But the hot hand phenomenon was dispelled as untrue.

It was Thomas Gilovich, a professor of Psychology at Cornell, who discovered the fallacy. He reviewed the stats of the Philadelphia 76ers for one season. Gilovich found that not only were players not more likely to score just because they previously scored, but they actually had better odds of scoring after missing a shot. That means momentum had absolutely nothing to do with how many points a player scored.

Consider the Size

When wagering on sports, bettors may look to recent momentum to help form a sports betting strategy. It’s likely to be a strategy largely built on a limited sample size, though. (A streak is a streak for a reason after all.) The outcome could deviate (sometimes for the better, sometimes for the worse) especially in small sample sizes, but over a larger period, you’ll generally see performance regress towards the Vegas line.

Let’s say the Atlanta Braves won their first six games of the 2013 season. They might be on a hot streak but in a 162 game season, six in a row isn’t much. Before you go to bet on them straight up in the next game, consider this. In 2012, they had a 94-68 win-loss record, meaning they won about 58% of the time. That means they still have the same chances to win that seventh game – it’s not a guaranteed win based on momentum.

Embrace the Variance

Now that we see the momentum’s a myth, what’s with all the streaks? What about those patterns? It’s just variance.

Variance is a measure of how far a set of numbers is spread out. With low variance, the set of numbers is close, but with high variance, they are far apart. For example, the Indianapolis Colts were projected to be below average in 2012. They had an expected win total for the year of 5.5. Surprisingly they were 11-5 on the season, but that’s only because 10 of those wins were by a touchdown or less. Sports bettors may have chosen to wager on them because they were riding high on momentum even though they were projected to lose in many of those games.

High variance means that over a small period, you could win some money when you bet based on a team’s or player’s momentum, but the risk is greater. If you are looking to make money and grow your bankroll in the long run, a better strategy is to stick to bets with low variance and positive expected value

- See more at: http://www.wageronsports.com/sports-betting-strategy/general-betting-strategy/the-myth-of-momentum-in-sports/#sthash.Vda0JBcj.dpuf

sports momentum is a myth. Just because a team is on a winning streak doesn’t mean they will definitely win their next game. Just because the Irish upset favorites on their path to the top didn’t mean they were going beat the Tide.

Of course Notre Dame’s odds increased with every win of the season, but ultimately, after evaluating different player and team data, it’d be clear that Alabama had a significant advantage to win. Beware of narratives and motives behind them. It’s more positive for the media to sell a game by saying Notre Dame has “grit” and “moxie” than saying “Alabama will clean house.” It all boils down to stats and analysis when it comes to betting on sports.

Making Sense of Things

Bettors and fans alike are so keen to attribute a pattern to any sequence in order for it to make sense to them. For example, in the NBA, a hot hand in basketball was thought to be someone who was more likely to hit their next shot simply because they landed their last one. But the hot hand phenomenon was dispelled as untrue.

It was Thomas Gilovich, a professor of Psychology at Cornell, who discovered the fallacy. He reviewed the stats of the Philadelphia 76ers for one season. Gilovich found that not only were players not more likely to score just because they previously scored, but they actually had better odds of scoring after missing a shot. That means momentum had absolutely nothing to do with how many points a player scored.

Consider the Size

When wagering on sports, bettors may look to recent momentum to help form a sports betting strategy. It’s likely to be a strategy largely built on a limited sample size, though. (A streak is a streak for a reason after all.) The outcome could deviate (sometimes for the better, sometimes for the worse) especially in small sample sizes, but over a larger period, you’ll generally see performance regress towards the Vegas line.

Let’s say the Atlanta Braves won their first six games of the 2013 season. They might be on a hot streak but in a 162 game season, six in a row isn’t much. Before you go to bet on them straight up in the next game, consider this. In 2012, they had a 94-68 win-loss record, meaning they won about 58% of the time. That means they still have the same chances to win that seventh game – it’s not a guaranteed win based on momentum.

Embrace the Variance

Now that we see the momentum’s a myth, what’s with all the streaks? What about those patterns? It’s just variance.

Variance is a measure of how far a set of numbers is spread out. With low variance, the set of numbers is close, but with high variance, they are far apart. For example, the Indianapolis Colts were projected to be below average in 2012. They had an expected win total for the year of 5.5. Surprisingly they were 11-5 on the season, but that’s only because 10 of those wins were by a touchdown or less. Sports bettors may have chosen to wager on them because they were riding high on momentum even though they were projected to lose in many of those games.

High variance means that over a small period, you could win some money when you bet based on a team’s or player’s momentum, but the risk is greater. If you are looking to make money and grow your bankroll in the long run, a better strategy is to stick to bets with low variance and positive expected value

- See more at: http://www.wageronsports.com/sports-betting-strategy/general-betting-strategy/the-myth-of-momentum-in-sports/#sthash.Vda0JBcj.dpuf

sports momentum is a myth. Just because a team is on a winning streak doesn’t mean they will definitely win their next game. Just because the Irish upset favorites on their path to the top didn’t mean they were going beat the Tide.

Of course Notre Dame’s odds increased with every win of the season, but ultimately, after evaluating different player and team data, it’d be clear that Alabama had a significant advantage to win. Beware of narratives and motives behind them. It’s more positive for the media to sell a game by saying Notre Dame has “grit” and “moxie” than saying “Alabama will clean house.” It all boils down to stats and analysis when it comes to betting on sports.

Making Sense of Things

Bettors and fans alike are so keen to attribute a pattern to any sequence in order for it to make sense to them. For example, in the NBA, a hot hand in basketball was thought to be someone who was more likely to hit their next shot simply because they landed their last one. But the hot hand phenomenon was dispelled as untrue.

It was Thomas Gilovich, a professor of Psychology at Cornell, who discovered the fallacy. He reviewed the stats of the Philadelphia 76ers for one season. Gilovich found that not only were players not more likely to score just because they previously scored, but they actually had better odds of scoring after missing a shot. That means momentum had absolutely nothing to do with how many points a player scored.

Consider the Size

When wagering on sports, bettors may look to recent momentum to help form a sports betting strategy. It’s likely to be a strategy largely built on a limited sample size, though. (A streak is a streak for a reason after all.) The outcome could deviate (sometimes for the better, sometimes for the worse) especially in small sample sizes, but over a larger period, you’ll generally see performance regress towards the Vegas line.

Let’s say the Atlanta Braves won their first six games of the 2013 season. They might be on a hot streak but in a 162 game season, six in a row isn’t much. Before you go to bet on them straight up in the next game, consider this. In 2012, they had a 94-68 win-loss record, meaning they won about 58% of the time. That means they still have the same chances to win that seventh game – it’s not a guaranteed win based on momentum.

Embrace the Variance

Now that we see the momentum’s a myth, what’s with all the streaks? What about those patterns? It’s just variance.

Variance is a measure of how far a set of numbers is spread out. With low variance, the set of numbers is close, but with high variance, they are far apart. For example, the Indianapolis Colts were projected to be below average in 2012. They had an expected win total for the year of 5.5. Surprisingly they were 11-5 on the season, but that’s only because 10 of those wins were by a touchdown or less. Sports bettors may have chosen to wager on them because they were riding high on momentum even though they were projected to lose in many of those games.

High variance means that over a small period, you could win some money when you bet based on a team’s or player’s momentum, but the risk is greater. If you are looking to make money and grow your bankroll in the long run, a better strategy is to stick to bets with low variance and positive expected value

- See more at: http://www.wageronsports.com/sports-betting-strategy/general-betting-strategy/the-myth-of-momentum-in-sports/#sthash.Vda0JBcj.dpuf

sports momentum is a myth. Just because a team is on a winning streak doesn’t mean they will definitely win their next game. Just because the Irish upset favorites on their path to the top didn’t mean they were going beat the Tide.

Of course Notre Dame’s odds increased with every win of the season, but ultimately, after evaluating different player and team data, it’d be clear that Alabama had a significant advantage to win. Beware of narratives and motives behind them. It’s more positive for the media to sell a game by saying Notre Dame has “grit” and “moxie” than saying “Alabama will clean house.” It all boils down to stats and analysis when it comes to betting on sports.

Making Sense of Things

Bettors and fans alike are so keen to attribute a pattern to any sequence in order for it to make sense to them. For example, in the NBA, a hot hand in basketball was thought to be someone who was more likely to hit their next shot simply because they landed their last one. But the hot hand phenomenon was dispelled as untrue.

It was Thomas Gilovich, a professor of Psychology at Cornell, who discovered the fallacy. He reviewed the stats of the Philadelphia 76ers for one season. Gilovich found that not only were players not more likely to score just because they previously scored, but they actually had better odds of scoring after missing a shot. That means momentum had absolutely nothing to do with how many points a player scored.

Consider the Size

When wagering on sports, bettors may look to recent momentum to help form a sports betting strategy. It’s likely to be a strategy largely built on a limited sample size, though. (A streak is a streak for a reason after all.) The outcome could deviate (sometimes for the better, sometimes for the worse) especially in small sample sizes, but over a larger period, you’ll generally see performance regress towards the Vegas line.

Let’s say the Atlanta Braves won their first six games of the 2013 season. They might be on a hot streak but in a 162 game season, six in a row isn’t much. Before you go to bet on them straight up in the next game, consider this. In 2012, they had a 94-68 win-loss record, meaning they won about 58% of the time. That means they still have the same chances to win that seventh game – it’s not a guaranteed win based on momentum.

Embrace the Variance

Now that we see the momentum’s a myth, what’s with all the streaks? What about those patterns? It’s just variance.

Variance is a measure of how far a set of numbers is spread out. With low variance, the set of numbers is close, but with high variance, they are far apart. For example, the Indianapolis Colts were projected to be below average in 2012. They had an expected win total for the year of 5.5. Surprisingly they were 11-5 on the season, but that’s only because 10 of those wins were by a touchdown or less. Sports bettors may have chosen to wager on them because they were riding high on momentum even though they were projected to lose in many of those games.

High variance means that over a small period, you could win some money when you bet based on a team’s or player’s momentum, but the risk is greater. If you are looking to make money and grow your bankroll in the long run, a better strategy is to stick to bets with low variance and positive expected value

- See more at: http://www.wageronsports.com/sports-betting-strategy/general-betting-strategy/the-myth-of-momentum-in-sports/#sthash.Vda0JBcj.dpuf

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