Weekly Articles "Road to Riches" by Rich 'Tighty' Prew
The Road to Riches 30th-31st July
Coming Up this weekend
- Racing, flat meetings at Goodwood, Doncaster, Newmarket,Hamilton, Lingfield and Thirsk
- Formula One, the German Grand Prix at Hockenheim.
- Golf, the final major of the year the PGA Championship at Baltursol GC in New Jersey. On the European tour the Kings Cup in Thailand.
- Tennis, ATP Rogers Cup in Toronto
- Rugby Union, the Super Rugby semi finals, Hurricanes v Chiefs and Lions and Highlanders.
US Open Tennis August 29th to September 11th by Nigel Seeley
There will be an outright preview following the draw and the package includes all of Nigel's match analysis, write ups and details of the bets that we are having.
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US Open Tennis (Aug 29th - Sep 11th 2016) |
Free Tip
Super Rugby Semi Final: Lions v Highlanders, Johannesburg Kick-off: Saturday 2pm bst
The Super Rugby semi-finals take place this weekend.
The highest seeded team the Hurricanes will play the lowest seeded team the Chiefs in one semi-final, while the second highest seeded team the Lions will play the second lowest seed the Highlanders in the second semi-final.
The top seeded team in the quarter-finals were the Hurricanes and they had a comprehensive 41-0 win over the Sharks in Wellington. Their semi final opponents the Chiefs beat the higher ranked Stormers 60-21 in Cape Town to give an all New Zealand semi-final.
The second semi-final will be hosted by the Lions who were too strong at home in Johannesburg beating the Crusaders 45-25 scoring 5 tries to 3. The Lions, the only non New Zealand team in the semis will play the Highlanders who beat the Brumbies in Canberra 15-9.
In the regular season the Lions had lost at home to the Crusaders (43-37) and the Hurricanes (50-17) but they were quickly out of the blocks last week and after a few nervy moments early in the second half they finished strongly. The Lions record against New Zealand sides this season now comprises of 3 wins and 3 defeats with the other loss coming to their semi final opponents (34-15) in Dunedin back in Round 3.
The Highlanders win over the Brumbies in Canberra last weekend in bad weather was by far the closest of the quarter finals. Against South African teams this season they won at home against the Lions early in the season, then lost at home to the Sharks (15-14) playing the bulk of that game with 14 men and later in the tournament they trounced the Kings (48-18) in Port Elizabeth.
It’s not a secret that the New Zealand sides are the class of this competition but the Highlanders are priced up as underdogs here. Prices are informed by the big recency bias of the Lions beating the Crusaders but the Lions were favoured by circumstances, with the Crusaders injury hit and working off a short week due to travel problems at short notice.
This has meant that the Lions are priced up as 4/5 favourites for the game, the Highlanders 11/10 underdogs with Skybet. Even allowing for home advantage I would have the Highlanders favourites in this game though and expect them to win.
Recommendation 15 points Highlanders 11/10 Skybet, Sportingbet or BetVictor
Regression to the Mean in Sports Betting
Many of us are familiar with the concept of regression to the mean in non-betting facets of life. It's used as a business model and as an investment tool just to give two examples. It also has plenty of practical applications for sports bettors as well in that variables that are more extreme on an initial measurement show a tendency to be less extreme on a second measurement. This is called regression to the mean. Regression to the mean is simply a way of stating that things tend to even out over time, or at least gravitate towards their norms.
Regression to the mean occurs whenever we look at the results of a combination of skill and randomness/luck, present in all sporting contests. In the absence of any readily identifiable other causes, such as injuries or significant player additions, the skill component can remain relatively stable, but, over time, extremes of luck tend to even out. Luck isn’t required to evenly distribute itself amongst teams in time for a last match of the season though!
If you watch sport often you will have a good idea of what regression to the mean is, having seen the basic concept in action on many occasions. Taking a team to reverse its recent form also means that you might get the best of the odds, as a team which has looked exceptionally good recently can be over-bet due to recency bias, while the team in poor form the reverse and those bettors who are not afraid to go against the grain are more likely to be the ones who come out ahead in the long run. It's the opposite of saying, which we all see written many times "team x has won six games in a row and is in great form, they are at home to team y that has no wins in five and therefore should be backed". Bookmakers love this sort of momentum betting, where prices already reflect recent form and no regression to the mean is factored in at all.
So the new football season is just around the corner. When in the next month a team starts out with three wins in their first four games it will be tempting to extrapolate that into a longer term record. However part of what we’ll observe in the team winning those nine points will be due to skill, part is due to randomness. It’s impossible for us to say how big a role each factor played. It’s possible that luck has been on their side so far. By the same token, it’s possible they’re a great team, and that their only loss was due to a bad luck, or the bounce of the ball..
However (and this is a big however), we must suspect some teams of being lucky. If you’ll admit that luck plays at least a small part in the outcome of a football game then we have to view the teams that start off well with some suspicion from a betting perspective.
At a very general level, bad teams aren’t as bad as they look, and good teams aren’t as good as they look, (with exceptions at the extremes each year, an Aston Villa last season for example).
We tend to intuitively understand reversion to the mean in the most extreme cases (we don’t predict that many teams will go undefeated, for example) but less so through the short term cycles of football results that we’ll see in the next nine months.
Brodders Football Analysis
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Euro & other Football by Brodders (monthly) |
- The Euros 2016 for subscribers. Results: +£4,098.30 (betting £10 a point, average bet about £150) +ROI 31.43%
- Long term profit over 3 years. Following all bets subscribers are winning £14,456.80 (£10 a point, average bet £150) +ROI 4.80%
Bookmaker reviews and advice
Getting the best price available is very important for all those who take their betting seriously.
Please open an account with all those bookmakers on the page on this link that you do not already have an account with using the links provided.
Betting Emporium results
The detailed results page has been updated as have the spreadsheets with the detailed bets. They can be found by clicking RESULTS
£10 per point on every recommended bet since launch in Feb 2013 would be winning £25,350 (as at 20th June 2016)
All bets have an ROI +4.08% and Horse Racing has a ROI of +7.7%
A £4000 bank (see FAQ re bank-roll requirements) betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth £29,350.50 a 633% increase
The Road to Riches 23rd-24th July
Coming Up this weekend
- Racing, flat meetings at Ascot, York, Newmarket, Newcastle, Chester, Lingfield and Salisbury.
- Formula One, the Hungarian Grand Prix in Budapest.
- Golf, USPGA Tour the RBC Canadian Open.
- Tennis, ATP Citi Open in Washington, ATP Swiss Open in Gstaad, ATP Kitzbuhel in Austria and ATP Croatia.
- Cricket, the second test between England and Pakistan at Old Trafford continues.
- Rugby Union, the Super Rugby play-off quarter-finals.
The Qatar Goodwood Festival 26th-30th July
Next week, coverage from Neil Channing of one of the racing highlights of the summer. If you had bet £10 a point on all Betting Emporium horse racing since 2013 you would be winning £7070 with an ROI of 7.7%
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Goodwood Festival - Full package (26th - 30th July 2016) |
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US Open Tennis August 29th to September 11th by Nigel Seeley
There will be an outright preview following the draw and the package includes all of Nigel's match analysis, write ups and details of the bets that we are having.
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US Open Tennis (Aug 29th - Sep 11th 2016) |
Free Tip by Neil Channing
Saturday 3.55pm Ascot 7f Gigaset Handicap
The fact that most firms offer five places at 1/4 odds in the Gigaset Handicap at Ascot makes it a terrific race to play each-way on. The field is pretty big with 26-runners but six of them are at least 50/1. As usual in races with this betting shape there is value in betting the horses who are between 1/1 and 20/1 each-way and it's hard to have a bad bet.
I managed to whittle the numbers right down by looking for horses that stay further than this seven furlongs as stamina is sure to be tested off a fast pace and also focussing on fast ground horses.
Fanciful Angel I don't really trust right now, Don't Bother Me may not love the fast ground, Nuno Tristan was pretty impressive last time but without that run I couldn't fancy him and I'd like something more solid, Bossy Guest I can really see the case for but he was 33/1 a couple of days ago, Brazos may want it a little softer and maybe he doesn't stay a yard more than this trip, Heaven's Guest is solid enough as he won this last year to improve on his fourth from 2014. Although he is slightly well in at the weights I think I'll pass on him at the price.
Suzi's Connoisseur is one I'll rule out at a short price given that he barely stays a yard past this trip and Librisa Breeze was absolutely cruising at the Royal meeting when he was beaten by the draw. I'm not sure I want to bet he'll be absolutely at his peak again especially on much faster ground.
Talking of the draw I kept saying during the Royal Meeting that the far side had an edge and I think that could be the same in this race. I'm going to take two against the field and the first one is the top weight Flash Fire who is drawn 6. This horse has run Ok over further, he was close up in the Bunbury Cup and he looks sure to run a solid race from a possibly great draw on ground that suits.
My other runner also ran a great race in the Bunbury Cup and I'm sure they'll finish close together and somewhere near the front. Mutawathea has fast ground form, he stays further than this trip and he also has good all-weather form which often translates well to the straight course at Ascot which is based on sand. Feels like he has to be in the frame.
I'm having 6 Points each-way Flash Fire at 16/1 1/4 12345 with Paddy Power (Sure that will be the general price tomorrow as it's bigger on Betfair right now).
I'm having 9 Points each-way Mutawathea at 12/1 1/4 12345 easily available.
Best of luck. If you win you might want to get the write-ups for all the races at Goodwood next week.
Brexit and the Premier League.
Britain's vote to leave the European Union could mean significant changes if continental players can no longer easily join Premier League clubs. Since the advent of the Premier League and ever larger TV deals hundreds of players from Europe have come to play here. The ramifications for the Premier League after will only become clearer as Britain negotiates its exit terms and ongoing relationship with the EU.
Here are some of the issues:
- Sterling Uncertainty
Britain will still be in the EU for at least two years. The immediate impact of the Brexit vote has stemmed from currency fluctuations amid the uncertainty.
The sharp fall of the pound means transfer fees for European players in particular will rise for British clubs. Foreign players converting pay into in their home currencies will notice they get less after conversion too
Conversely, English players are currently cheaper for continental clubs, although few move abroad in large part due to the high salaries on offer at home.
- Work Permits
With Britain voting to leave the EU more than 100 players now fail to meet the current work permit criteria for non-EU players and therefore could not automatically join other Premier League clubs using the Home Office’s current rules, requiring players to have played in a certain number of their national team’s matches.
There is currently an "exemptions panel" where clubs can argue why it is necessary to grant a visa to a player who doesn't meet the criteria. This has resulted in players such as Dimitri Payet, N’Golo Kante and Anthony Martial, none of whom were established internationals when they joined the Premier League last summer, being exempt.
The current FA Work Permit Regulations are as follows:
- A player from a FIFA ranked top-10 nation only has to have played in 30 percent of games in the two years prior to application to be granted a work permit
- A player from a 11-20 ranked nation must have played in 45 percent of international games
- That rises to 60 percent for the next 10 countries, and 75 percent for countries ranked 31-50
Leaving the EU would mean players from current EU countries would need to meet these criteria to qualify for an automatic work permit. One lawyer commented:
“Clubs will be limited to hiring higher calibre players from highly FIFA ranked EU countries. If the Premier League is limited to these players, this will increase the values, in terms of transfer fees and wages, of acquiring proven and established EU players. Missing out on rising talent will be one of the drawbacks."
- Homegrown talent
The English FA sees the potential for more homegrown players to gain first-team opportunities in the Premier League, and potentially help the national team. However the Premier League will want to protect its status as a leading domestic competition due to its competitiveness and the mult-inational makeup of squads.
With leading clubs also playing in the Champions League and Europa League, they could argue that government needs to provide some form of easier access to players from the continent.
"If Brexit increases the number of English players, that is to be welcomed," FA chairman Greg Dyke said. "But you don't want to lose the best European players coming here."
While the FA was neutral in the referendum campaign, the Premier League backed staying in the EU and will not want the league to be affected when television rights for the next three seasons have generated £8.3bn with more than £3bn of that coming from overseas broadcasters.
- Youth Development
The impact of Brexit might not be seen for a decade as some of the biggest enforced changes could be the makeup of club academies if clubs can no longer sign promising 16-18 year-olds from across Europe. Under the FIFA Regulations on the Status and Transfer of Players Article 19 allows the “transfers of minors between the age of 16 and 18 within the EU or EEA”.
Currently teenagers can be brought to England relatively cheaply for low compensation payouts to European teams rather than paying transfer fees. The hope is players break into the first team or become saleable assets. Clubs like Chelsea also have partner clubs in Europe like Vitesse Arnhem in the Netherlands, to send promising players to gain experience. That might become more difficult.
"European clubs could have a competitive advantage over English clubs when it comes to recruiting promising players at the optimum time of 16 to 18," said a leading sports lawyer. "Youth development is probably the biggest impact Brexit is likely to have."
Brodders Football Analysis
Sign up to Brodders match analysis and recommended bets here for £50 a month. You are free to cancel at any time.
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Euro & other Football by Brodders (monthly) |
- The Euros 2016 for subscribers. Results: +£4,098.30 (betting £10 a point, average bet about £150) +ROI 31.43%
- Long term profit over 3 years. Following all bets subscribers are winning £14,456.80 (£10 a point, average bet £150) +ROI 4.80%
Bookmaker reviews and advice
Getting the best price available is very important for all those who take their betting seriously.
Please open an account with all those bookmakers on the page on this link that you do not already have an account with using the links provided.
Betting Emporium results
The detailed results page has been updated as have the spreadsheets with the detailed bets. They can be found by clicking RESULTS
£10 per point on every recommended bet since launch in Feb 2013 would be winning £25,350 (as at 20th June 2016)
All bets have an ROI +4.08% and Horse Racing has a ROI of +7.7%
A £4000 bank (see FAQ re bank-roll requirements) betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth £29,350.50 a 633% increase
The Road to Riches: Weekend of 16th-17th July
Coming Up this weekend
- Football, No sooner have the Euros finished than the domestic season in Scotland is underway with League cup ties
- Racing, flat meetings at Lingfield, Haydock, Newmarket, Newbury and Ripon. Natinal hunt meetings at Cartmel and Market Rasen
- Golf, the conclusion of The Open Championship at Royal Troon
- Tennis, Davis Cup World group Quarter finals including Serbia v Great Britain. ATP Hall of Fame at Newport, Rhode Island, ATP Swedish Oen and ATP Hamburg
- Cricket, the first test between England and Pakistan at Lords continues
- Rugby Union, the final round of Group matches in Super Rugby ahead of the play-offs
The Qatar Goodwood Festival 26th-30th July
Coverage from Neil Channing of one of the racing highlights of the summer begins in under a fortnight
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Goodwood Festival - Full package (26th - 30th July 2016) |
Sign up here
US Open Tennis August 29th to September 11th by Nigel Seeley
There will be an outright preview following the draw and the package includes all of Nigel's match analysis, write ups and details of the bets that we are having.
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US Open Tennis (Aug 29th - Sep 11th 2016) |
£50 Sign Up Here |
Free Tip
Super Rugby: Crusaders v Hurricanes, Saturday 16th July, Christchurch, KO 06:15 BST:
Super Rugby's Round 17 this weekend is the final slate of games before the Play offs.
Currently the four teams leading their conferences are the Chiefs, Brumbies and in South Africa the Stormers and Lions with the four wild card teams including three of the four remaining new Zealand teams (Crusaders, Hurricanes, Highlanders) and the Sharks from Durban. This weekend will see the play off order iconfirmed.
Saturday’s action starts early morning our time with a New Zealand Conference derby between the Crusaders and the Hurricanes (from Wellington) in Christchurch, in essence a play-off quality match between two good sides.
These two sides are the first of the four New Zealand franchises who have confirmed their play off spots in action this weekend. Only three points separate the four sides and Saturday will determine who will have home advantage in the play offs. Just two points separate the Crusaders and Hurricanes in the table and the winner of this contest will earn the higher seed in the finals and possibly finish top of the New Zealand conference.
The Crusaders ran in 13 tries in demolishing the Rebels last weekend but they have lost 3 of their 5 local derby matches this season, home and away to the Chiefs and also tasting defeat away to the Highlanders. The win kept the Crusaders within a point of the Hamilton-based Chiefs as the contest continues for first place in the New Zealand conference with one regular season round remaining.
The Hurricanes sealed their play off spot with a 28-17 victory over the Waratahs in Sydney last weekend. They have won 3 of 5 New Zealand derby matches with the defeats coming away at the Highlanders and at home to the Chiefs. No more than 10 points has settled all 5 of those local derby matches in the current campaign.
For the Hurricanes, a lot of the responsibility lands on the shoulders of fly-half Beauden Barrett. He has been crucial to their success all season and has continued to develop as a player and is a certain pick for the All Blacks squad. His pace and playmaking ability makes him a danger for any team.
The Crusaders are 4/7 and 5 point handicap favourites to win this match. I see very little between the two sides and think the 2/1 offered by William Hill (9/5 offered by Bet365 and sportingbet) on the Hurricanes to win here is a very interesting price.
10 points Hurricanes to beat the Crusaders 2/1 William Hill (9/5 Bet365 or sportingbet)
England-Pakistan Cricket Test Series.
Pakistan are in England for the second half of the summer and the four test series began this week:
Jul 14- Jul 18 First Test Lords
Jul 22 - Jul 26 Second Test Old Trafford
Aug 03 - Aug 07 Third Test Edgbaston
Aug 11 - Aug 15 Fourth Test, The Oval
Pakistan are likely to be a tougher proposition than Sri Lanka who went through their tour in the first half of the tour winless in all formats. Pakistan beat England 2-0 in the UAE test series last autumn in very different conditions than they will face in England clearly, but they have several world class players capable of causing the hosts problems.
Traditionally Pakistan aren’t the best tourists with team spirit often an issue and memories of the spot fixing disgrace on the last tour of England are fresh but this tour party is well prepared, having travelled over early and in warm up matches looked focussed and fitter than previously.
The test team relies on a few key individuals. Only four of the top six in the batting have experience in English conditions. They feature the current oldest test player in 42 year old captain Misbah Ul Haq, who on Thursday scored his eighth century as captain going past Inzamam for most Test hundreds by a Pakistan captain and Younus Khan (over 9000 test runs at 53) with support from Azhar Ali and Mohammed Hafeez and five of the top six have test averages of over 40
It is the bowling line up though that offers a real threat. Mohammed Amir is one of the best fast bowlers in the world, capable of swinging it both ways at pace and he is supported by Wahab Riaz and Rahat Ali with Imran Khan and Sohail Khan in reserve. Two spinners are in the tour party and one, Yasir Khan, is a very good leg spinner with 76 wickers in his 12 test matches to date about to play his first test match outside Asia. He will cause problems if better weather firms the pitches up for later in the series. For the series, Yasir at 7/2 looked a very decent bet as an alternative to a very short Amir (6/4) for top series Pakistan bowler.
England’s team for the first test had one clear issue to resolve in the absence of the out of form Compton and Gary Ballance has been selected Joe Root is batting at 3. Anderson is missing injured and there is no place for Buttler and Stokes. The fast development of Woakes in the seam bowling department in support of Broad becomes more important with Ball making his debut and Finn often inconsistent as on Thursday where he looked short of rhythm and confidence..
Looking at the betting markets just before the first test England were as short as 4/11 to win the four test series, the draw 5/1 and Pakistan available at 6/1. That’s understandable enough, England are a home team going well against opponents who haven’t performed well in England but it could well be closer series than those outright prices imply.
Not only do Pakistan have the world class players mentioned above but England have a particular vulnerability in their middle order. Cook and Root in the top three are clearly excellent but if Pakistan can get beyond them early the prospect of Ballance and Vince is nowhere near as daunting. England have displayed frequent issues with batting collapses in the last 18 months, often relying on the lower middle order to compile scores for them. England have been 100-3 or worse in 24 of their past 34 completed innings. Add in the absence of Anderson for the first test at least, and Pakistan's threatening bowling attack and it could be that the underdog comes firmly into play during this series.
For example Pakistan were 4/1 for the first test before the toss. Perhaps a team that is not the most reliable of betting propositions, but their talent belies their odds in what should be a competitive series.
Brodders Football Analysis
Sign up to Brodders match analysis and recommended bets here for £50 a month. You are free to cancel at any time.
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Euro & other Football by Brodders (monthly) |
- Covering the Euros 2016 for subscribers. Results: +£4,098.30 (betting £10 a point, average bet about £150) +ROI 31.43%
- Long term profit over 3 years. Following all bets subscribers are winning £14,456.80 (£10 a point, average bet £150) +ROI 4.80%
Bookmaker reviews and advice
Getting the best price available is very important for all those who take their betting seriously.
Please open an account with all those bookmakers on the page on this link that you do not already have an account with using the links provided.
Betting Emporium results
The detailed results page has been updated as have the spreadsheets with the detailed bets. They can be found by clicking RESULTS
£10 per point on every recommended bet since launch in Feb 2013 would be winning £25,350 (as at 20th June 2016)
All bets have an ROI +4.08% and Horse Racing has a ROI of +7.7%
A £4000 bank (see FAQ re bank-roll requirements) betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth £29,350.50 a 633% increase
The Road to Riches Weekend of 9th-10th July
Coming Up this weekend
- Football, The Euro 2016 between France and Portugal in Paris on Sunday
- Racing, flat meetings at Hamilton, Chester, Ascot, York, Newmarket and Salisbury
- Golf, USPGA The Greenbrier Classic and ahead of the Open Championship on the European Tour the Scottish Open from Castle Stuart
- Tennis, the final weekend of Wimbledon
- Formula One, the British Grand Prix at Silverstone.
Free Tip
The 2016 Open Championship returns to Royal Troon in Ayrshire, Scotland this year running next week from Thursday 14th July to Sunday 17th July 2016, featuring the most international field of the four Majors and 156 players.
The Open move from last year’s Old Course at St Andrews, where the true difficulty was primarily the fickle North Sea weather, to a purer links test on the Ayrshire coast. Famous for the aptly named 'Postage Stamp' 125 yard par-3, which is the shortest hole in Open Championship golf, the Old Course is set amongst sand hills and features some of thickest gorse/rough on the Open rota. If the prevailing north-westerly wind is unkind then Troon becomes a nasty challenge
The Old Course at Troon is seen by the professionals as a very fair links test. Since the course was toughened by converting it to a par 71 for the 1997 Open - won by Justin Leonard - the winning scores here have been -12/272 and -10/274. A relatively easy opening six holes is followed by a much tougher closing set of 12 holes. Intimidating tee shots, blind drives, deep gorse, the nearby beach and a very much in-play railway line make for an interesting test.
The R&A have recognised that the Old Course needed to be updated after a 12-year gap between Open visits Billy McLachlan, course manager at Royal Troon Golf Club.said
“We want a traditional links feel, Firm, fast and bouncy. That’s what we’re trying to target for at The Open, and at any time. We’re doing everything we can to get a linksy feel and if the weather goes with us, we will hopefully achieve it.”
“We held The Amateur in 2012 and it wasn’t very nice weather. It was wet and the ground was a bit soft. There was a deliberate decision made then to be more linksy. At that time, we were the softest of the Open Championship courses. We’re on line to where we want to be which is harder, faster and firmer.”
Well-directed power from the tee is a huge advantage. Hitting greens consistently is tough as the combination of wind, fast conditions and green complexes which repel approach shots creates a real ball-striking test. The difficulty of managing the course well from tee-to-green makes a top-class scrambling game 100% essential.
The last four open winners were in the world top 50, and only one of the last ten from outside the world’s top 100. Ten of the last sixteen Champions had won a tournament in the season prior to triumphing at The Open.
Rather than tip up a favourite in a tournament where it is 25/1 bar the top 4, Day, McIlroy, Dustin Johnson and Speith taking out 40% of the market, this column once again is looking for a live outsider.
Chris Wood from Bristol won the PGA at Wentworth in May which moved him into world top 25. One of the emerging European players, he now has four victories, three on the European tour It was his links record that I remembered when thinking about this week’s column.
He was low amateur at Birkdale 2008 finishing tied 5th overall then 3rd at Turnberry the year after. Overall he has played five Opens and has three top 25 finishes. He's finished in the top 10 in the last three Dunhill links too.
A very tall man he is a long controlled hitter and a really good ball striker. I spotted him again when finishing tied 23rd at the US Open at Oakmont recently. Opening with a 75 he then went round in the ultra-consistent 70, 71, 71 and followed this up with 11th at the French open last week
I spotted an interview in Golf digest in which he said
““I love the variety that comes with links golf. Think about it. You can walk onto the fringe of just about any green on a links, drop your ball anywhere and use any club in the bag to chip with. That’s the best part of golf for me. Links golf just gives me so many options. My imagination just goes off. It’s just so enjoyable. Far more than hitting lob wedge after lob wedge out of rough. I remember hitting 4-irons from 140-yards out at Birkdale during the 2008 Open. My Dad was caddying for me. The wind was strong but it was great fun”
When I was looking to a candidate for this column he struck me as one of the few players in that fast emerging group of British and Irish players where the price still gave us something to go at. For example Fitzpatrick was 80-1 for Oakmont and only 50-1 here. Shane Lowry was 125-1 at Oakmont now only 40-1 here. Danny Willett was 66/1 two majors ago, won it and is 33-1 here.
Wood I hope is the next player who we might not be seeing at 80 or 100-1 in majors too often in the future. He withdrew from this week's Scottish Open with a minor neck injury to be ready for Troon and his price, which i have been watching for a fortnight, has drifted a little as a result.
I am tipping here nearly a week in advance of the event and already we are seeing some firms go six places and you can be patient with the below recommendation and possibly see seven places in spots next week.
5 points each Way Chris Wood 100-1 (1/4 1,2,3,4,5,6) Betfred and several small firms, 80/1 generally
Rio Grand?
It is now under a month to the 2016 Summer Olympics (the XXXI Olympiad) in Rio an event for which planning has not gone smoothly with concerns about the Zika virus and various political and infrastructure problems leading up to the event. Over 10,000 competitors from 206 countries compete in 28 sports over 16 days beginning on August 5th.
The betting industry reported twenty-fold growth in turnover from 2008 to 2012 and, while part of that growth undoubtedly came about because of the interest in the London Olympics, it can be expected to grow again for Rio.Athletics is the blue riband event at any Olympics and will dominate the headlines and betting markets over the last 10 days of Rio 2016.
Athletics apart, the tennis competition will see the same kinds of sums traded as on any grand slam while the Under 23 football tournament will be popular too. The Introduction of Golf into the Olympics, notwithstanding the withdrawal of many of the highest profile players is likely to be of betting interest too with the format very similar to any PGA event.
Elsewhere, there will be betting interest in the cycling, rowing, swimming and boxing. However, if previous Olympics are a guide, markets will be relatively illiquid until the latter stages of events. They are more marginal sports from a betting perspective.
Looking ahead to the event PwC economists have stepped up to the starting blocks to produce benchmarks against which performance at the 2016 Olympics can be forecast.
A study found the following factors to be statistically significant in explaining the number of medals won by each country at previous Olympic Games:
- Size of economies (measured by GDP at purchasing power parity (PPP) exchange rates)
- Performance in the previous two Olympic Games
- Whether the country is host nation
In general, the number of medals won increases with the population and economic wealth of the country; but there are exceptions like Jamaica (sprinters) and Kenya (middle distance events) . Jamaica, for example, is projected to win 0.4 medals in Rio for every $bn of GDP, while the same ratio is only around 0.02 for the UK and around 0.005-0.006 for the US and China.
John Hawksworth, PwC chief economist, says:
“David can sometimes beat Goliath in the Olympic arena, although superpowers like the US and China continue to dominate the top of the medals table.
“Now it is no longer the host country, Great Britain may find it difficult to match its exceptional performance in London 2012 – though our model suggests it should remain as high as fourth in Rio with over 50 medals in total.”
“Competition remains strong, as other countries start to invest in elite sport as a way to raise their profile on the global stage, but since Great Britain has retained its very focused funding strategy, it should be possible to sustain the momentum of the last couple of Summer Olympics.”
In 2012 Great Britain won 65 medals including 29 golds and PWC currently expects 52 for Rio.
As host nations generally ‘punch above their weight’ at the Olympics, Brazil is predicted to fare well in Rio, despite the country’s recent economic problems. The model projects they could win 25 medals, up from 17 in London.
Among “special” markets offered in 2012 were which country would top the Medals table, with the US expected to be odds-on (but a good reliable odds on) for Rio. The US were the top nation in 2000, 2004 and 2012. Their only failing was in 2008 in Beijing, where home advantage clearly paid off for the Chinese stars who claimed 51 gold medals to America’s 36.
Having completed a clean sweep of gold medal wins at the last two Olympic Games in Beijing and London, where the Jamaican came in first in the 100m, 200m and 4x100m relay, Usain Bolt will be in Rio attempting to complete a triple hat-trick; the first of its kind in the event’s history.
He claimed a similar treble at the World Championships last August. He will face stiff competition though. Justin Gatlin is running some quick times including the fastest 100m in 2016 in the US trials last weekend
Bolt suffered a hamstring tear during the first round of Jamaica's senior trials in Kingston.
Bolt released a statement which read: "After feeling discomfort in my hamstring after the first round last night and then again in the semi-final tonight I was examined by the chief doctor of the National Championships and diagnosed with a grade-one tear.
"I have submitted a medical exemption to be excused from the 100m final and the remainder of the National Championships. I will seek treatment immediately and hope to show fitness at the London Anniversary Games on July 22 to earn selection for the Olympic Games in Rio."
The result of the injury was to move Bolt out to 4/9 favourite and Gatlin into 2/1
In terms of Great Britain’s Athletics team GB won 4 golds in London and individual event markets are up for Athletics Rio. Mo Farah is 1/3 to defend each of his 5000m and 10,000m titles. Jessica Ennis-Hill is 13/8 favourite to retain the heptathlon title and Greg Rutherford is 7/4 favourite to retain the Long jump title. Realistically there isn’t another British contender for a gold medal and over/under markets for British athletics golds should, when they come out settle around o/u 3.5.
Brodders Football Analysis ** Includes Euro 2016 Outright Preview and Game Coverage **
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All bets have an ROI +4.08% and Horse Racing has a ROI of +7.7%
A £4000 bank (see FAQ re bank-roll requirements) betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth £29,350.50 a 633% increase
The Road to Riches Weekend of July 2nd-3rd
Coming Up this weekend
- Football, Euro 2016 Quarter finals. Germany v Italy on Saturday and France v Iceland on Sunday.
- Racing, flat meetings at Sandown including the Coral Eclipse Stakes, Beverley, Leicester, Carlisle, Nottingham and Haydock.
- Golf, the World Golf Championships- Bridgestone Invitational and the USPGA Barracuda Championships at Montreux GC and on the European Tour the French Open at Le Golf National in Paris
- Tennis, the middle weekend of Wimbledon
- Formula One, the Austrian Grand Prix in Spielberg.
UEFA Euro 2016 (10th June -10th July 2016)
We have incorporated the Euro 2016 coverage into the Brodders section. Betting £10 a point in June on Brodders' bets would have won you £2,945 (ROI +29.3%). You can still sign up, get the remaining Euro 2016 bets and then ongoing European football coverage into the new season and beyond. You can cancel at any time.
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Wimbledon 2016 (27th June – 10th July)
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Nigel Seeley is a long term winner on tennis with a proven three year record on Bettingemporium. The package includes all of Nigel's match analysis, write ups and details of the bets that we are having.
Free Tip Austrian Grand Prix, Sunday 1pm
This weekend the ninth race of the season takes the drivers to the Red Bull Ring and the 2016 Austrian Grand Prix following a facile win for Nico Rosberg in Baku, a weekend in which Lewis Hamilton once again found trouble.
Hamilton currently sits 24 points behind his team mate Rosberg in the drivers’ championship. The Frustration of Baku and the memories of his 2015 performance at Austria will be on Hamilton’s mind in the build up to Sundays’ race.
This is the third modern day Austrian Grand Prix with the previous two both won by Rosberg, last year in a Mercedes 1-2. Two of the three sectors of the track feature long straights with overtaking opportunities and it is only in the twisty last section that the field should be able to live with the Mercedes and its pre-eminent power unit. Mechanical problems aside, a Mercedes 1-2 in qualifying when the engine mode really gets ramped up, is extremely likely.
Behind Mercedes both Red Bull and Ferrari have shown signs of being closer to the very front of the field in recent races primarily on street circuits. It may be tougher on the power tracks coming up here and at Silverstone to challenge for victories. I would expect a sixth win for Rosberg this weekend and he is priced second favourite to Hamilton, 7/4 against 5/4, 7/1 bar the front two.
Another market I am interested in is top 6 finish. All six drivers in the Mercedes, Ferrari and Red Bull teams are priced odds on for a top six finish as is Bottas for Williams. For starters though Vettel has a five place grid penalty which will jumble the grid up and secondly the weather is expected to be extremely mixed all weekend. I am on the hunt for a value alternative to the six market leaders for a top six finish.
The foremost candidates here are the two Force Indias that are Mercedes powered and increasingly competitive since upgrades a few races ago. Perez has two top three finishes in the last three races on comparatively slow tracks whilst Hulkenberg, somewhat overshadowed by his team-mate recently, was in the top six in Monaco. Force India sit fifth in the constructors table and tend to go better than the team in fourth, Williams, in mixed conditions. Perez is as short as 11/10 for a top six finish here, Hulkenberg 13/8. Although wary of drawing too many conclusions from free practice, Hulkenberg ran third in Friday afternon's second practice. He strikes me as interesting value in this market
8 points Nico Hulkenberg Top Six finish 13/8 generally
Brexit, stage left.
The Brexit referendum result gave a great case study of why and how predictive markets, both financial and betting, can get things wrong. After hitting a low of 1.06 with £130m+ traded in the Betfair market "Remain" losing was perhaps the biggest upset in political betting history.
Firstly a look at the performance of and implications for the polling industry.
Brexit polling was all over the place. In particular, there was a divide between polls conducted over the telephone and online. As it turned out the online polls in this referendum were the only piece of information informing the world of the correct risk of a Brexit throughout the campaign. The online polls showed the race very close within a margin of error either side of 50/50, with a slight advantage for the Leave campaign. Throughout the campaign the telephone polls showed Remain comfortably ahead before showing an average 2.7% Remain lead over the final four weeks. The online polls showed Leave ahead more often than Remain, with an average lead for Leave of 1.8% over the same period. In total over the campaign period, 78% of the telephone polls showed a Remain lead, whilst 63% of the online polls showed Leave ahead
Perhaps a subsequent thesis that the samples being reached by telephone pollsters consistently contain too many people who are educated to degree level or higher (remainers, as a whole) proved accurate. Unfortunately throughout the run up to the vote the telephone polling was given more credence than online polling, perhaps a form of confirmation bias by the polling and political establishment.
Seven polling companies issued ‘final’ polls of voting intentions in the EU referendum. While no company forecast the eventual result exactly, in three cases the result was within the poll’s margin of error of +/- 3%. In one case Leave were correctly estimated to be ahead. In the four remaining cases, however, support for Remain was clearly overestimated. This is obviously a disappointing result for the pollsters because every single poll, even those within sampling error, overstated the Remain vote share.
The British Polling Council said afterwards that there would be no enquiry and that "Polling of voting intentions in the referendum was a unique event, and the lessons of this experience will not necessarily be transferable to polling of future general elections"
Turning to the betting markets Remain looked home and dry rated a 94% chance shortly after the polls closed after an on-the-day poll result from YouGov showed a 4% lead for Remain. At 2am on Friday morning the market flip-flopped so that Leave was a 1.99 favourite falling to 1.5 a few minutes later. Leave then drifted and the favourites switched again as the market reacted to every scrap of news, analysis and speculation. As results began to pour in from across the country odds for Remain drifted, hitting 6.0 at 3.45am and then 14.0 by 4.00am ahead of the official declaration after 5am.
It became fashionable during the referendum campaign to observe the betting markets instead of opinion polls for reliable prediction. News websites included live tracking of betting odds on their pages and main news stories would often include references to the betting odds as well as any new polling information. The betting markets however were charting the consensus narrative which in this case, as so often, proved to be wrong.
A reminder that 1/10 or below chances can lose, and of single “one off” event variance especially with no comparators to work off. Furthermore, if we needed reminded, proof that people bet to make money on their political forecasts not to provide an accurate prediction tool. The backlash afterwards against the betting industry was probably not helped by bookie PR before the vote. The Ladbrokes “barometer” and similar concepts from other firms did give the impression that they tried to present themselves as an opinion poll alternative rather than prices reflecting weight of money and perceptions of value.
Brodders Football Analysis ** Includes Euro 2016 Outright Preview and Game Coverage **
Sign up to Brodders match analysis and recommended bets here for £50 a month. You are free to cancel at any time.
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Euro & other Football by Brodders (monthly) |
- Betting £10 a point would be showing a profit of + £11,592
- Long Term Profit - All Brodders bets since January 2014 are currently showing a ROI of +3.98% (over 2150 bets) (at 20th June 2016)
Bookmaker reviews and advice
Getting the best price available is very important for all those who take their betting seriously.
Please open an account with all those bookmakers on the page on this link that you do not already have an account with using the links provided.
Betting Emporium results
The detailed results page has been updated as have the spreadsheets with the detailed bets. They can be found by clicking RESULTS
£10 per point on every recommended bet since launch in Feb 2013 would be winning £25,350 (as at 20th June 2016)
All bets have an ROI +4.08% and Horse Racing has a ROI of +7.7%
A £4000 bank (see FAQ re bank-roll requirements) betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth £29, 350% increase
