Weekly Articles "Road to Riches" by Rich 'Tighty' Prew
The Road To Riches: Weekend of 19th-20th March
Coming Up this weekend
- Football, .The Premier League this weekend includes the Manchester and North East derbies on Sunday. The latest Premier League Statistical Analysis write up has been published here
- Rugby Union, the final weekend of the Six Nations including England going for the Grand Slam on Saturday evening in Paris
- Formula One, the start of the new season with the Australian Grand Prix in Melbourne
- Racing, national hunt meetings at Uttoxeter, including the Mdlands Grand National, Newcastle, Kempton and Fontwell and on the All-weather at Wolverhampton
- Cricket. The Super Ten group stage games of the World Twenty20 Cup continue including India v Pakistan in Kolkota on Saturday.
- Tennis, ATP & WTA BNP Paribas Open, Indian Wells in California.
- Golf, European Tour: Hero Indian Open and USPGA Tour: Arnold Palmer Invitational at Bay Hill Club & Lodge in Orlando.
Premier League Darts (Feb 4th - May 19th 2016)
Weekly coverage by Nigel Seeley for the 2016 Premier League Darts.
The package costs £50. Sign Up here
ICC World Twenty20 Cricket
The outright preview was published last Sunday The package includes the outrights, all the match analysis and details of all the bets that we are having on the T20 World Cup.
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Cricket: 2016 ICC World T20: 15th March - 3rd April 2016 |
£50 Sign Up Here |
Free Tip : 2016 Formula One Season/Australian Grand Prix betting Preview
2015 saw domination by the Mercedes team and Lewis Hamilton win his third Drivers Championship. Mercedes won 16 of the 19 races, Hamilton 10 alone and the team had no less than twelve one-two finishes and only Vettel/Ferrari were remotely competitive, winning three races.
2016 is a year of stable regulations with no step changes in rules and engine type to really alter the balance of power on the grid. Those regulation changes come next year. Therefore it is unsurprising to see Mercedes 1/5 for another constructor’s championship and Hamilton 8/13 to win a fourth title.
There are two key battles to watch at the Head of the field. Firstly Rosberg won the last three races of last season and should be expected to be very close to Hamilton all year in an identical car. At 100/30 for the title he is better value than Hamilton for an ante-post bet. Secondly Ferrari have made more changes to their car than Mercedes in the off-season as they attempt to step-change performance to catch Mercedes and fight for the championship. Rivals believe Ferrari have benefited in the design of their 2016 car by exploiting a loophole in the limits on wind-tunnel time and computer-aided design research that existed as a result of their new partnership with Haas. At the same time, as the Mercedes was by definition more optimised last year, in theory there is less room for improvement.
At the end of last season Ferrari were matching Mercedes for race pace but lacked the ability to challenge Mercedes in qualifying with no engine mode to match the Mercedes. Typically they were 0.6 seconds off Mercedes in qualifying In testing in Barcelona in recent weeks (subject to the usual caveats about fuel loads and other variables that differ from car to car in testing) the Ferrari appears to be only 0.2 seconds slower per lap than the Mercedes. It will only be in qualifying at Melbourne this weekend when we find out if Ferrari have the capability of qualifying on the front row.
As Rosberg said after testing "We know it is close, but we are not sure if we are ahead or behind."
Taking each driver's fastest time on each type of tyre throughout the second test and correcting for fuel loads you end up with a list of the fastest lap for each team that looks like this:
Mercedes (Rosberg) 1:22.6
Ferrari (Raikkonen) 1:22.9
Williams (Massa) 1:23.4
Red Bull (Ricciardo) 1:23.7
Toro Rosso (Verstappen) 1:23.7
Force India (Hulkenberg) 1:24.0
In race-simulation runs average lap times for the top contenders are:
Hamilton 1:29.1
Rosberg 1:29.3
Raikkonen 1:29.4
Vettel 1:29.5
On this sort of data, Ferrari are far closer than at the equivalent stage last year and Vettel 5/1 each way for the title would be very tempting were it not for each way terms only being two places.
Away from Mercedes and Ferrari last year Williams were the third quickest team but will be under threat this year from Force India, who have looked quick in testing and Toro Rosso who have (2015) Ferrari engines now and taking their testing times improving by up to a second per lap on last year when they ran the uncompetitive Renault engine.
Toro Rosso enjoyed a strong pre-season test, with STR11 notching more miles than any other team, save for Mercedes. They must make the most of opportunities in the early rounds of the championship as there are limited development opportunities on the year-old Ferrari engine, but until others catch up they should be both quick and reliable. Red Bull's Christian Horner has predicted the team could find itself ahead of Red Bull in the opening rounds, yet that is not reflected in betting markets.
I expect another leap forward in results from the prodigious teenager Max Verstappen, who scored 49 points last year with two top six finishes in a car with a horsepower disadvantage even to most of the midfield. Widely thought of as a future world champion not only should the car be qwuick, but he should outperform the car too because of his natural talent. Yet for a top six finish in Astralia Verstappen is 7/4 while Red Bull's Ricciardo for example if 6/5. If Horner is right, and if the evidence of testing is right that the Ferrari engine is producing up to a second in lap speed, 7/4 is an opportunity that isn't factoring this in
Recommendation
8 points Max Verstappen Top Six Finish Australian Grand Prix 7/4 Bet365 and Ladbrokes
Introducing Variability into a Predictable sport, the challenge of betting on F1 in 2016
After several years of domination by Red Bull and more recently Mercedes, in the off-season F1 has sought to liven up the sport with much concern about the absence of racing spectacle in F1. In the words of one F1 team principal rule changes create the potential for "more stress and more mess" and as a bi-product might knock onto more unpredictable betting markets than the last few years when outright markets for individual Grand Prix have been unappetising.
After raising tyre pressures in 2015 and banning team radio around the race starts, for 2016 an almost complete ban on team to driver radio has been introduced as well as new tyre rules, which significantly increase the variables into racing situations. Elimination qualifying, which will see the slowest driver knocked out every 90 seconds throughout the three parts of the session, seeks to build on the wave of unpredictable elements too and mix up starting grids. Bernie Ecclestone was for reversing grids too. Even though that proposal has not been adopted, there is no doubt that we appear to be entering a phase where things are being shaken up.
In terms of the ban on radio communications between drivers and their engineers, for this year, teams will no longer be able to provide continuous information about tyre wear, engine performance and fuel levels to the drivers, except in emergencies. This should lead to more strategy mistakes and an end to the tedious radio commands to, for example, Rosberg to match the engine setting run by Hamilton and formation running throughout much of races. In the drivers press conference ahead of Melbourne Hamilton said
""The changes to the radio rules will have a big impact,"
"The engineers now can't give you prompts or reminders that might affect performance during the race, so you have to remember so much more."
"This even applies to strategy, so when it's shifting throughout the race you won't be in the loop. It will be tough - but hopefully it will make for more exciting races.
Also in an attempt to spice up race strategies in 2016, Pirelli will now bring three - instead of two - slick tyre compounds to each race weekend. Perhaps the most intriguing element of the new rules is that team-mates won't have to mirror each other's selections and we have seen this in some teams for tyre choices for Melbourne including at Mercedes. Tyre construction is different this year too, designedto degrade faster than last year so we should see an extra stop in races introducing more room for variability in races.
So the theory is by introducing variability into qualifying, strategy and tyre choices that races are more interesting. This could have the effect of introducing a) variance to betting markets and b) the potential for more betting opportunities, for example if a Mercedes or Ferrari is out of position on a grid.
All eyes on Melbourne this weekend then.
Brodders Football Analysis
Sign up to Brodders match analysis and recommended bets here for £50 a month. You are free to cancel at any time.
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Euro & other Football by Brodders (monthly) |
Brodders shows a long term proven profit on his Euro and other football selections. If you had bet £10 a point on every recommended bet since 2014 you would be winning £6169.30.
Bookmaker reviews and advice
Getting the best price available is very important for all those who take their betting seriously.
Please open an account with all those bookmakers on the page on this link that you do not already have an account with using the links provided.
Betting Emporium results
The detailed results page has been updated as have the spreadsheets with the detailed bets. They can be found by clicking RESULTS
£10 per point on every recommended bet since launch in Feb 2013 would be winning £12,088.40 (as at 9th February 2016)
A £4000 bank (see FAQ re bank-roll requirements) betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth £16,088.40 a 350% increase
All bets have an ROI +2.30% and Horse Racing has an ROI +6.14%
There is also a Frequently Asked Questions Section
The Road to Riches: Weekend of 12th-13th March
Coming Up this weekend
- Football, A reduced slate of Premier League fixtures because of the FA Cup Quarter-finals featuring Manchester United v West Ham and Everton v Chelsea. The latest Premier League Statistical Analysis write up has been published here
- Rugby Union, the fourth weekend of the Six Nations including the key game for the title, England v Wales at Twickenham
- Racing, national hunt meetings at Ayr, Chepstow and Sandown and on the All-weather at Wolverhampton.
- Tennis, ATP & WTA BNP Paribas Open, Indian Wells in California.
- Golf, European Tour: True Thailand Classic, USPGA Tour: Valspar Championship in Palm Harbor, Florida.
- Cricket. The final World Twenty20 Cup Qualifying group games
Premier League Darts (Feb 4th - May 19th 2016)
Weekly coverage by Nigel Seeley for the 2016 Premier League Darts.
The package costs £50. Sign Up here
Cheltenham Festival (Tue 15th-Fri 18th March 2016 Package
Our full Cheltenham Package for all four days of write ups and details of all the bets that we are having is now available at £199.99
Cheltenham Festival Tues 15th - Fri 18th March 2016 (Package) £199.99 - Sign up here
You may be interested in the following article by Lee Davy talking to Neil Channing:
"Neil Channing: Betting Emporium, Cheltenham and Why God Has a Sick Sense of Humour" here
ICC World Twenty20 Cricket
The outright preview will be published following the final qualifier on Sunday March 13th. So far there are 13-15 outright, player market and team market bets in the preview. The package includes the outrights, all the match analysis and details of all the bets that we are having on the T20 World Cup. See below for an example of the type of game by game coverage to expect
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Cricket: 2016 ICC World T20: 15th March - 3rd April 2016 |
£50 Sign Up Here |
Free Tip : The final Super10 ICC TwentyT20 Qualifying game
Bangladesh v Oman Sunday 2pm Dharamsala
Bangladesh finished runners up in recent Asia cup, beating Pakistan and Sri Lanka along the way and are one of the form sides in world cricket at the moment. The highest ranked side in the qualifiying groups they will be lively outsiders going into group 2 of the super 10 next week, should they make it.
Oman are the lowest-ranked country ever to reach a global tournament, Oman edged out several larger nations at the qualifier in Ireland last year and beat Ireland in their first game of this tournament. Bangladesh will be very short outright to win this match and advance to the Super 10.
In the sub markets for this game against part-time opposition we need to focus on
a) Batsmen in the top 3 of the order - they will get most of the overs against associate country level bowling and
b) Opening bowlers, who both will have the use of the hard ball at the start of the innings and will also most likely be bowling against tail enders at the end of the innings
In this respect there are two interesting players
Tamim Iqbal, Top Bangladesh batsman
Tamim opens the batting for Bangladesh in all formats and is a classy player, with seven hundreds in 42 tests. A hard-hitting fast-scoring stroke player he is ideal to take on the weaker opponents he is facing in this qualifying group.
"I've been talking to the team management, players, coaches on how to go about T20 cricket," Tamim said. "I wasn't doing justice to my talent. I wasn't scoring too many runs in T20s, honestly. So I had to find new ways to score runs in T20s, and I've been quite successful at home and in PSL in Dubai. I try to be more calm, don't try to hit too hard early. If everything goes well, my success chances go higher."
In the opening game against the Netherlands he scored 83 off 58 balls, batting through the innings on the same pitch the match against Oman will be played on. In a 12 overs a side match on Friday against Ireland, in an innings before the rain resumed and the match was abandoned Tamim was dropped on nought then bludgeoned four sixes in his 47 off 26 balls. He is in fantastic form and a class above associate level bowlers.
Al Amin Hossain, Top Bangladesh bowler
In the Asia Cup he was Bangladesh's most consistent performer with the ball, mainly getting the job done at the death overs taking 11 wickets at 12 apiece. He claimed back-to-back three-fors against Sri Lanka and Pakistan. His yorkers are impressive. No other Bangladesh bowler managed more than 5 wickets in the asia cup. Hossain took a couple of wickets in Bangladesh's first game of this tournament. Then against Ireland...
Prices for Sunday's game should be up on Saturday afternoon. Prices below are those available prior to Bangladesh's first two qualifying games, and are what I will be betting assuming they are available for Sunday. Treat them as a lower limit, no bet below those prices.
5 points Tamim Iqbal, Top Bangladesh batsman 11-4
5 points Al Amin Hossain, Top Bangladesh bowler 3-1
Something to watch out for in the Budget.
Last week a Parliamentary Question was lodged by Chris Green MP (Bolton West), and that and the Answer by John Whittingdale MP, Secretary of State for Culture, Media and Sport, was as follows:
Question
“The British Horseracing industry has an economic impact of three-and-a-half billion pounds a year, with Aintree and Haydock being really popular racecourses for my constituents.
“Can my right honourable friend confirm the date when he plans to require offshore bookmakers to make a financial contribution to racing, as those based in Britain already do?”
Answer:
“My honourable friend is absolutely right to draw attention to the importance of horseracing to this country. I can tell him that our aim is to introduce a new funding arrangement for British Racing by April 2017.
“We will create a level playing field for British-based and offshore gambling operators and ensure a fair return from all bookmakers to racing, including those based offshore.
“Racing will be responsible for making decisions on spending the new fund and we will be making further announcements shortly.”
In a press release following this exchange the BHA welcomed the Government’s announcement in Parliament, which follows on from a 2015 budget commitment. That commitment was followed by controversy around Authorised Betting Partners, with which racing is continuing with the prospect of shortfalls in funding before the new arrangements take effect to maintain the current level of Levy funding.
Betfair, bet365, 32Red and BetVictor have so far signed up to the new system. Other established bookmakers like Ladbrokes, Betfred, Coral, William Hill and Paddy Power have yet to agree to ABP status.
Until the budget next Wednesday we won’t know how much extra money will be raised for British Racing and the rate bookmakers will be charged but the BHA has said that funds raised under this new model will pass to Racing to determine how the funds are spent within the sport.
The consequence of the new arrangements should be that the commercial worth of British racing is established, rather than relying on a Levy formulated in the 1960s.
Brodders Football Analysis
Sign up to Brodders match analysis and recommended bets here for £50 a month. You are free to cancel at any time.
|
Euro & other Football by Brodders (monthly) |
Brodders shows a long term proven profit on his Euro and other football selections. If you had bet £10 a point on every recommended bet since 2014 you would be winning £6169.30.
Bookmaker reviews and advice
Getting the best price available is very important for all those who take their betting seriously.
Please open an account with all those bookmakers on the page on this link that you do not already have an account with using the links provided.
Betting Emporium results
The detailed results page has been updated as have the spreadsheets with the detailed bets. They can be found by clicking RESULTS
£10 per point on every recommended bet since launch in Feb 2013 would be winning £12,088.40 (as at 9th February 2016)
A £4000 bank (see FAQ re bank-roll requirements) betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth £16,088.40 a 350% increase
All bets have an ROI +2.30% and Horse Racing has an ROI +6.14%
There is also a Frequently Asked Questions Section
The Road to Riches: Weekend of 5th-6th March
- Football, The Premier League including the biggest North London derby in many years on Saturday lunchtime, Tottenham v Arsenal. The latest Premier League Statistical Analysis write up has been published here
- Racing, national hunt meetings at Doncaster, Stratford-on-avon, Kelso and Newbury. On the all-weather at Lingfield
- Tennis, Davis Cup World Group 1st Round matches including Great Britain v Japan in Birmingham.
- Golf, World Golf Championships - Cadillac Championship, Trump National Doral in Miami, Florida.
Premier League Darts (Feb 4th - May 19th 2016)
Weekly coverage by Nigel Seeley for the 2016 Premier League Darts.
The package costs £50. Sign Up here
Cheltenham Festival (Tue 15th-Fri 18th March 2016 Package
Our full Cheltenham Package for all four days of write ups and details of all the bets that we are having is now available at £199.99.
| Cheltenham Festival Tues 15th - Fri 18th March 2016 (Package) £199.99 - Sign up here |
| Cheltenham Preview Dinner (Sat 12th March 2016) £99.99 per ticket - Sign up here |
Free Tip by Neil Channing
Neil has already done some Ante-post Cheltenham previews, an example of which is below to give you a flavour of the Cheltenham coverage in the package above and ahead of the Preview dinner next weekend.
The World Hurdle (Thursday 17th March).
"The first thing to say about this race is that like the Champion Chase I'm not hugely looking to lay the favourite and I don't think the prices of the favourite in either race is hugely wrong. Thistlecrack is a horse that has done really well on soft and heavy ground though. I'm not saying that he needs heavy to win but the good ground we might see on March 17th is something a bit different and the ability to go as well on it should not be taken for granted.
Annie Power is running in the Champion Hurdle and Vroum Vroum Mag is going for the Mare's Hurdle so we are left with a maximum of nine runners under 50/1. Paul Nicholls has two in Aux Ptits Soins and Saphir du Rheu and the latter has run pretty poorly this year. I took it as a negative for both when Sam Twiston Davis worked on the former and chose the latter as his ride for this race just the other day. Kilcooley is another one I ruled out due to it's troublesome and interrupted preparation even though the trainer said the other day that he was now ready to go to this race.
We are left with five horses to possibly bet each-way and I'm ruling out the three Irish horses, Martello Tower, Prince of Scars and Alpha des Obeaux who have been winning and losing slightly lower grade races in Ireland on soft ground.
That leaves me with two and if you were thinking of betting Cole Harden each-way I really wouldn't put you off. Last year's winner has not really had decent ground at all this year and it's also fair to say that his opponents will be wise to his likely front-running tactics. On this ground and from the front though I do think he'll be up there stretching them and it's hard to see him totally dropping out.
The one I want to bet though is Whisper. Nicky Henderson's horse was not quite at his peak going into Cheltenham last year but he still ran Ok. At Liverpool on decent ground he was very impressive. This year he has run twice on bad ground and he hasn't run well but against Thistlecrack at Ascot the market made him 6/4 even though the ground was known to be against him and he was coming there after seven months off. Since then he ran on even worse ground over an inadequate trip. I just think this is the first time he has had his conditions this year and I'm encouraged by his trainer saying that he comes into this race in as good condition as he was in the run up to Aintree last year. I could easily see this horse go off 10/1 and the price just seems massive."
12 Points each-way Whisper at 16/1 1/4 1,2,3 available almost everywhere
note: the race is Non-Runner no bet
The ICC World Twenty20
The World T20 Cricket tournament will be covered on Betting Emporium this month. The qualification rounds begin on 8th march and the group stages (which we will cover) from Tuesday 15th March. Cricket results on Betting Emporium to date, across all formats, are ROI +22.38% on 604 points staked
The cost of the package is £50 here
My work on the event will of course focus on on the field prospects and betting value but its impossible to look at the tournament without an eye on the off-the-field troubles that have afflicted the event. Several of these may affect performances in the event.
Preparation for the tournament has been affected by a number of major problems concerning venues, terrorism threats towards the Pakistan team, another pay dispute involving the West Indies and broadcast rights in some countries.
This week tickets were still to go on sale in some of the eight venues across India. In large part this was because group matches and both semi-finals are due to be held in Delhi. These may yet have to be moved because the city council have refused to sign off new safety certificates for the ancient Feroz Shah Kotla Stadium.
Pakistan announced their squad for the tournament in mid February but were only confirmed this week after permission was finally given by the government to travel to India following terrorism threats against the team. Then yesterday the Pakistan Cricket Board (PCB) threatened again to pull out of the tournament if they did not get a clear message about the security situation from the Indian government. The permission to play in India was put on hold until the team's security was guaranteed. The PCB's move was prompted after the Himachal Pradesh chief minister had expressed his state government's difficulty in providing security for the India-Pakistan clash in Dharamsala, Northern India on March 19.
For the West Indies, their participation was in doubt until very recently due to another dispute with their cricket board the latest of serveral in recent years.
"The difference between the remuneration on offer from previous World Cups to this one is shocking and we cannot accept the terms on offer,”said Darren Sammy, the West Indies Twenty20 team captain "We are looking, even on 2012 figures, at reductions of between 50-80%"
The chief executive of the West Indies Cricket Board said players who did not sign the tournament contracts would be be withdrawn from selection and a public row ensued. Eventually 12 of the original 15 picked by the WICB for the tournament signed and Sammy said that most players will play in the World T20, but the WICB "cannot continue to be unfair and unreasonable" which hardly seems auspicious for their prospects.
Finally cricket fans in Australia face a blackout for the tournament because all local TV networks have passed on the opportunity to buy the broadcast rights for the tournament due to punitive charges imposed by the ICC for the rights.
When the group stages get underway on the 15th, for more than a few cricket administrators in several countries, it will be a relief to have made it.
Brodders Football Analysis
Brodders analysis and write ups throughout January 2016: In total there were 57 bets at an average of just over 14 points each. They showed a profit of +156.89 points and a ROI of 19.16%. February to date Feb +£1449 at £10 a point with an ROI of 22%
If you had bet £10 a point throughout January 2016 you would have won £1568.90
Sign up to Brodders match analysis and recommended bets here for £50 a month. You are free to cancel at any time.
|
Euro & other Football by Brodders (monthly) |
£50 Sign Up Here |
Brodders shows a long term proven profit on his Euro and other football selections. If you had bet £10 a point on every recommended bet since 2014 you would be winning £6169.30.
Getting the best price available is very important for all those who take their betting seriously.
Please open an account with all those bookmakers on the page on this link that you do not already have an account with using the links provided.
Betting Emporium results
The detailed results page has been updated as have the spreadsheets with the detailed bets. They can be found by clicking RESULTS
£10 per point on every recommended bet since launch in Feb 2013 would be winning £12,088.40 (as at 9th February 2016)
A £4000 bank (see FAQ re bank-roll requirements) betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth £16,088.40 a 350% increase
All bets have an ROI +2.30% and Horse Racing has an ROI +6.14%
There is also a Frequently Asked Questions Section
The Road To Riches: Weekend of 27th-28th February
- Football, The Premier League is back after FA Cup weekend including Manchester United v Arsenal, and it is the Capital One Cup final Liverpool v Manchester City. The latest Premier League Statistical Analysis write up has been published here
- Rugby Union, the third weekend of the Six Nations Championship
- Racing, national hunt meetings at Newcastle, Chepstow and Kempton and on the all-weather at Lingfield
- Tennis, ATP & WTA Acapulco, Mexico. ATP Brasil Open in Sao Paulo. ATP Dubai Duty Free Tennis Championships in Dubai and WTA Qatar Total Open, Doha, Qatar.
- Golf, European Tour: ISPS HANDA Perth International,Australia and USPGA Tour: The Honda Classic, PGA National (Champion), Palm Beach Gardens, Florida.
Premier League Darts (Feb 4th - May 19th 2016)
Weekly coverage by Nigel Seeley for the 2016 Premier League Darts.
The package costs £50. Sign Up here
Cheltenham Festival (Tue 15th-Fri 18th March 2016 Package
Our full Cheltenham Package for all four days of write ups and details of all the bets that we are having is now available at £199.99. Sign up here
| Cheltenham Festival Tues 15th - Fri 18th March 2016 (Package) £199.99 - Sign up here |
| Cheltenham Preview Dinner (Sat 12th March 2016) £99.99 per ticket - Sign up here |
Free Tip
Wigan Athletic v Bury League One
Wigan were relegated from the Championship last year, the culmination of a turbulent few years on and off the field with boardroom changes and two relegations. Towards the end of last season David Whelan's grandson David Sharpe took over as chairman and Gary Caldwell as manager, a youthful partnership aiming to restore the club's fortunes. Over the coming summer the club underwent a transformation with the majority of the playing staff that had been relegated leaving and a raft of new signings arriving including the high profile arrival of Will Grigg from Brentford.
Favourites for promotion (the club benefits this season from parachute payments from the Premier League despite now playing two divisions lower) they started the season inconsistently but were challenging for the play-off places by November. They enter this weekend's match in second place, 4 points behind Burton Albion and on a superb run unbeaten in eleven league games since mid-December as their resources tell in this division. In this regard they were able to add to their squad in the January transfer window with the recruitment of the talented midfielder Sam Morsy.
Northern Ireland international Will Grigg has scored 13 goals in 25 games for Wigan this season after scoring 22 goals last season for MK Dons in their season promoted from this division. A one goal in every three game striker over a 200 game career to date, he is a one goal in every two game striker in League one over the last nearly two seasons and 67 games.
For this game Wigan are 8/13 at home to beat Bury, a side in the bottom half. Grigg takes penalties, and has scored two and missed one in the last four games and for a side that is attack-minded, a warm home favourite and in great form the 4/1 first goalscorer price looks interesting, as does the each way-market 1/3 unlimited places to score anytime
6 points each way Will Grigg First goal-scorer Wigan v Bury 4-1 Bet365 1/3 odds unlimited places (4/1 Win only BetVictor)
Steam Moves
Steam moves are a sudden and uniform line movement across an entire betting market. They are the result of money placed at multiple sports-books and, in most cases, occur due to betting groups and syndicates with the resources to “get down” at multiple locations simultaneously. The public don’t bet enough in a short amount of time to produce this kind of rapid movement. Public betting clearly has an effect on the lines, but these sudden moves will almost always be the result of “smart” money.
Historically bettors have tried to chase the line moves and find a slow-moving sports-book that hasn’t moved its line or price. While this can be profitable if the information causing the move is valid, it’s very difficult to consistently chase because you need a huge bankroll, accounts at many sports-books and lots of time to constantly track odds. These days there’s almost no delay in adjusting lines, with most sports-books will adjust to a big move within minutes. Some books use betting software so that they can react automatically to such events.
In addition professionals will understand the desire of bettors to chase these moves and will bet one side of a game to move the number in their favour then “buy-back” even bigger. As a result, it’s extremely difficult to identify which moves are legitimate. Many sports-books will limit players who continually chase these moves.
Blindly betting all perceived steam moves isn’t a sound strategy because it can be difficult to decipher what the move truly means. Some moves have more validity than others. In some cases bettors may get a better price with the opening number, and sometimes with the closing number. Treat steam moves as another piece of information to help determine how and why the line has moved for a certain sporting event.
Brodders Football Analysis
Brodders analysis and write ups throughout January 2016: In total there were 57 bets at an average of just over 14 points each. They showed a profit of +156.89 points and a ROI of 19.16%. February to date Feb +£1449 at £10 a point with an ROI of 22%
If you had bet £10 a point throughout January 2016 you would have won £1568.90
Sign up to Brodders match analysis and recommended bets here for £50 a month. You are free to cancel at any time.
|
Euro & other Football by Brodders (monthly) |
£50 Sign Up Here |
Brodders shows a long term proven profit on his Euro and other football selections. If you had bet £10 a point on every recommended bet since 2014 you would be winning £6169.30.
Getting the best price available is very important for all those who take their betting seriously.
Please open an account with all those bookmakers on the page on this link that you do not already have an account with using the links provided.
Betting Emporium results
The detailed results page has been updated as have the spreadsheets with the detailed bets. They can be found by clicking RESULTS
£10 per point on every recommended bet since launch in Feb 2013 would be winning £12,088.40 (as at 9th February 2016)
A £4000 bank (see FAQ re bank-roll requirements) betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth £16,088.40 a 350% increase
All bets have an ROI +2.30% and Horse Racing has an ROI +6.14%
There is also a Frequently Asked Questions Section
The Road to Riches Weekend of 20th-21st February
- Football, either side of the Champions League last sixteen round matches, it is the FA Cup fifth round this weekend including Chelsea v Manchester City and Tottenham v Crystal Palace.
- Racing, national hunt meetings at Haydock, Ascot and Wincanton and on the all-weather at Lingfield
- Tennis, ATP events in Rio de Janeiro, Delray Beach, Florida and Marseille. WTA Dubai Duty Free Tennis Championships.
- Golf, USPGA Tour: Northern Trust Open in Pacific Palisades, California and European Tour: Maybank Championship Malaysia in Kuala Lumpur.
- Cricket, the second T20 International between South Africa and England in Johannesburg on Sunday
Premier League Darts (Feb 4th - May 19th 2016)
Weekly coverage by Nigel Seeley for the 2016 Premier League Darts. After two of the sixteen weeks Nigel's selections were showing an 14% ROI.
The package costs £50. Sign Up here
Cheltenham Preview Night: Saturday 12th March
Following the success of last year's great Cheltenham Preview dinner we are pleased to announce details of this years.
When: Saturday 12th March 2016 (630pm Champagne reception, followed by four course dinner inc wine)
Where: The Bleeding Heart Restaurant, Bleeding Heart Yard, off Greville Street, Hatton Garden, London EC1N 8SJ
- Lovely dinner in an amazing restaurant
- Excellent panel
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Free Tip by Neil Channing 3.35pm Ascot Chase
Very nice to get a big price winner for the regular Road to Riches followers last week, sadly this week there were a couple of races that had a lot of declarations which I thought might offer us four places but sadly the fields cut-up. We do still have a great race in the shape of the Ascot race which may not be the best ever Grade 1 Chase but which, (hopefully), gives us a lovely eight runners and a good each-way angle.
The favourite Silviniaco Conti would have been odds-on to win this kind of race a year ago and he'd probably eat these horses for breakfast. If he does win people will talk about what a great price he was and how obvious it looked and how you can always forgive a bad run. I tend to think there have been a few bad runs now though and I can't see this as a solid each-way bet. If anything I'd say it's a place lay.
Dynaste is another horse who has more than gone off the boil. I personally never really thought of him as a Grade 1 chaser and I don't think I'd rush to back him in Grade 2 races at short prices.
Triolo D’alene was another one I put a line through quickly. The horse is being aimed for the Grand National and I'm sure it won't be absolutely 100% buzzing here and really knocked about to win. It also, maybe more importantly, will not like the ground much.
I'm also ruling out the other Nicky Henderson horse Ma Filleule, one that I've loved over the years but one that is basically here as a stepping stone to the Ryan Air. It's so hard to peak these older horses for more than one race in a short space of time and I'd rather she runs well here in a nice preparation for the real target.
Amore Alato is an interesting runner but this could be a long way home for him and Savello is interesting in that he flits between hurdles and fences but basically he ought not to be good enough.
I'm certainly tempted by Flemenstar who has run a couple of nice races after coming back from injury and who will love this soft ground. The trip and the journey over would be my doubts and for that reason I don't want to have two bets and rely on a solid run but I was pretty tempted.
The really solid horse to my mind is Royal Regatta. We know the stable and jockey are in form, the horse has won at the track, he likes the soft ground and he definitely stays. If you were looking to find a flaw you might say that he lacks the class to win a decent Grade 1 race but I think we've established that this is far from top class and if we just need to get round in the first three to make a small profit I like the idea of betting one that ought to enjoy himself and that we know will stay. A couple of firms are doing 1/4 123 in this race and that makes this horse a great each-way bet. I'd happily take 6/1 getting 1/4 but at 1/5th odds I'd need 7/1 really.
I'm having 8 Points each-way Royal Regatta at 15/2 1/4 123 with Corals (if that goes then I'd try to get 15/2 win only on Betfair or see if firms go 7/1 when the market has settled a bit).
A different kind of season
With a hat tip to Sporting Intelligence whose table it was, after last weekend’s Premier League fixtures I saw the following table given the last title wins for sides in the current league positions listed
Premier League table (Last English league title)
1: Never
2: 1961
3: 2004
4: 2014
5: 2013
6: Never
7: Never
8: 1990
9: Never
10: Never
Of course much attention is on Leicester, who I confidently predicted would “revert to the mean” when I wrote on the subject in December and notwithstanding a late defeat at Arsenal haven’t yet but the performances of Tottenham, West Ham, Southampton and Watford amongst others are helping break the stranglehold of the recent league winners in the top 4 and for the moment at least top ten with Chelsea sitting in the bottom half.
Last week I had the opportunity to go on a tour of the Leicester City training ground (ostensibly for my son’s birthday, but who am I kidding…) and was struck at the difference from my last visit over a decade ago.
“What’s that?” a lad pointed at a piece of apparatus behind a window
“A cryotherapy chamber. Players go in it and it aids their recovery after games” came the reply
“Here’s the indoor training facilities” said the guide, and the door opened to a hangar-sized building full of equipment, computer terminals and white boards
We moved on.
“Here are the medical and physiotherapy facilities” and in we trotted to a room that resembled a small hospital, again crammed with equipment.
As we neared the end of the tour the Guide spoke conspiratorially “The scouts work in that room” We waited for more, but he smiled and ushered us on.
This is all to illustrate just some of the factors behind the success of one of the sides doing well this season. To my mind the points of difference lie in two areas
a) Facilities outside the top 4 have caught up with the bigger clubs fast. With respect to sports science Leicester have been lucky to avoid lengthy injury absences to players this season (the injury list currently contains one player). Very few muscular injuries has been a continual theme at Leicester for some years and they have been all too frequent at Arsenal, Liverpool and Manchester United amongst others, though clearly the number of games and competitions the bigger sides play in is a factor.
b) Recruitment. For example in the summer the analytics team at Leicester looked for candidates for the kind of midfielder the club needed and Caen’s N’Golo Kante now one of the emerging starts of our league was identified. Two years ago after buying Mahrez for £400,000, a player Arsene Wenger admitted last week he had never heard of when he was transferred into English football, this was another example of where scouting at games was complemented by statistics.
One scout in an article recently said
‘Ten years ago only the top clubs could afford to watch and gather information on players across the world and make informed decisions/ Now that information is available to everyone with the stats.Technology has definitely allowed the so-called smaller clubs to close the information gap.’
We should probably expect that to continue. Once new TV rights deals start, Premier League clubs will share £8billion plus between 2016-2019. TV money now forms such a large part of a club’s turnover that gate receipts are only of marginal importance. Clubs such as Aston Villa, Newcastle and Sunderland are finding this to their cost. A greater predictor of success than historic size and fanbases is the utilisation of resources off the field in sports science and scouting.
Leicester, and other sides progressing fast off the field, once again provide a cautionary tale to taking short match prices about big Premier League names in a division with a greater spread of talent, on and off the field, than in previous years. This will accelerate in 2016-17 and onwards.
Brodders Football Analysis
Brodders analysis and write ups throughout January 2016: In total there were 57 bets at an average of just over 14 points each. They showed a profit of +156.89 points and a ROI of 19.16%. February to date Feb +£1449 at £10 a point with an ROI of 22%
If you had bet £10 a point throughout January 2016 you would have won £1568.90
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