Weekly Articles "Road to Riches" by Rich 'Tighty' Prew
The Road to Riches: Weekend of 5th-6th March
- Football, The Premier League including the biggest North London derby in many years on Saturday lunchtime, Tottenham v Arsenal. The latest Premier League Statistical Analysis write up has been published here
- Racing, national hunt meetings at Doncaster, Stratford-on-avon, Kelso and Newbury. On the all-weather at Lingfield
- Tennis, Davis Cup World Group 1st Round matches including Great Britain v Japan in Birmingham.
- Golf, World Golf Championships - Cadillac Championship, Trump National Doral in Miami, Florida.
Premier League Darts (Feb 4th - May 19th 2016)
Weekly coverage by Nigel Seeley for the 2016 Premier League Darts.
The package costs £50. Sign Up here
Cheltenham Festival (Tue 15th-Fri 18th March 2016 Package
Our full Cheltenham Package for all four days of write ups and details of all the bets that we are having is now available at £199.99.
| Cheltenham Festival Tues 15th - Fri 18th March 2016 (Package) £199.99 - Sign up here |
| Cheltenham Preview Dinner (Sat 12th March 2016) £99.99 per ticket - Sign up here |
Free Tip by Neil Channing
Neil has already done some Ante-post Cheltenham previews, an example of which is below to give you a flavour of the Cheltenham coverage in the package above and ahead of the Preview dinner next weekend.
The World Hurdle (Thursday 17th March).
"The first thing to say about this race is that like the Champion Chase I'm not hugely looking to lay the favourite and I don't think the prices of the favourite in either race is hugely wrong. Thistlecrack is a horse that has done really well on soft and heavy ground though. I'm not saying that he needs heavy to win but the good ground we might see on March 17th is something a bit different and the ability to go as well on it should not be taken for granted.
Annie Power is running in the Champion Hurdle and Vroum Vroum Mag is going for the Mare's Hurdle so we are left with a maximum of nine runners under 50/1. Paul Nicholls has two in Aux Ptits Soins and Saphir du Rheu and the latter has run pretty poorly this year. I took it as a negative for both when Sam Twiston Davis worked on the former and chose the latter as his ride for this race just the other day. Kilcooley is another one I ruled out due to it's troublesome and interrupted preparation even though the trainer said the other day that he was now ready to go to this race.
We are left with five horses to possibly bet each-way and I'm ruling out the three Irish horses, Martello Tower, Prince of Scars and Alpha des Obeaux who have been winning and losing slightly lower grade races in Ireland on soft ground.
That leaves me with two and if you were thinking of betting Cole Harden each-way I really wouldn't put you off. Last year's winner has not really had decent ground at all this year and it's also fair to say that his opponents will be wise to his likely front-running tactics. On this ground and from the front though I do think he'll be up there stretching them and it's hard to see him totally dropping out.
The one I want to bet though is Whisper. Nicky Henderson's horse was not quite at his peak going into Cheltenham last year but he still ran Ok. At Liverpool on decent ground he was very impressive. This year he has run twice on bad ground and he hasn't run well but against Thistlecrack at Ascot the market made him 6/4 even though the ground was known to be against him and he was coming there after seven months off. Since then he ran on even worse ground over an inadequate trip. I just think this is the first time he has had his conditions this year and I'm encouraged by his trainer saying that he comes into this race in as good condition as he was in the run up to Aintree last year. I could easily see this horse go off 10/1 and the price just seems massive."
12 Points each-way Whisper at 16/1 1/4 1,2,3 available almost everywhere
note: the race is Non-Runner no bet
The ICC World Twenty20
The World T20 Cricket tournament will be covered on Betting Emporium this month. The qualification rounds begin on 8th march and the group stages (which we will cover) from Tuesday 15th March. Cricket results on Betting Emporium to date, across all formats, are ROI +22.38% on 604 points staked
The cost of the package is £50 here
My work on the event will of course focus on on the field prospects and betting value but its impossible to look at the tournament without an eye on the off-the-field troubles that have afflicted the event. Several of these may affect performances in the event.
Preparation for the tournament has been affected by a number of major problems concerning venues, terrorism threats towards the Pakistan team, another pay dispute involving the West Indies and broadcast rights in some countries.
This week tickets were still to go on sale in some of the eight venues across India. In large part this was because group matches and both semi-finals are due to be held in Delhi. These may yet have to be moved because the city council have refused to sign off new safety certificates for the ancient Feroz Shah Kotla Stadium.
Pakistan announced their squad for the tournament in mid February but were only confirmed this week after permission was finally given by the government to travel to India following terrorism threats against the team. Then yesterday the Pakistan Cricket Board (PCB) threatened again to pull out of the tournament if they did not get a clear message about the security situation from the Indian government. The permission to play in India was put on hold until the team's security was guaranteed. The PCB's move was prompted after the Himachal Pradesh chief minister had expressed his state government's difficulty in providing security for the India-Pakistan clash in Dharamsala, Northern India on March 19.
For the West Indies, their participation was in doubt until very recently due to another dispute with their cricket board the latest of serveral in recent years.
"The difference between the remuneration on offer from previous World Cups to this one is shocking and we cannot accept the terms on offer,”said Darren Sammy, the West Indies Twenty20 team captain "We are looking, even on 2012 figures, at reductions of between 50-80%"
The chief executive of the West Indies Cricket Board said players who did not sign the tournament contracts would be be withdrawn from selection and a public row ensued. Eventually 12 of the original 15 picked by the WICB for the tournament signed and Sammy said that most players will play in the World T20, but the WICB "cannot continue to be unfair and unreasonable" which hardly seems auspicious for their prospects.
Finally cricket fans in Australia face a blackout for the tournament because all local TV networks have passed on the opportunity to buy the broadcast rights for the tournament due to punitive charges imposed by the ICC for the rights.
When the group stages get underway on the 15th, for more than a few cricket administrators in several countries, it will be a relief to have made it.
Brodders Football Analysis
Brodders analysis and write ups throughout January 2016: In total there were 57 bets at an average of just over 14 points each. They showed a profit of +156.89 points and a ROI of 19.16%. February to date Feb +£1449 at £10 a point with an ROI of 22%
If you had bet £10 a point throughout January 2016 you would have won £1568.90
Sign up to Brodders match analysis and recommended bets here for £50 a month. You are free to cancel at any time.
|
Euro & other Football by Brodders (monthly) |
£50 Sign Up Here |
Brodders shows a long term proven profit on his Euro and other football selections. If you had bet £10 a point on every recommended bet since 2014 you would be winning £6169.30.
Getting the best price available is very important for all those who take their betting seriously.
Please open an account with all those bookmakers on the page on this link that you do not already have an account with using the links provided.
Betting Emporium results
The detailed results page has been updated as have the spreadsheets with the detailed bets. They can be found by clicking RESULTS
£10 per point on every recommended bet since launch in Feb 2013 would be winning £12,088.40 (as at 9th February 2016)
A £4000 bank (see FAQ re bank-roll requirements) betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth £16,088.40 a 350% increase
All bets have an ROI +2.30% and Horse Racing has an ROI +6.14%
There is also a Frequently Asked Questions Section
The Road To Riches: Weekend of 27th-28th February
- Football, The Premier League is back after FA Cup weekend including Manchester United v Arsenal, and it is the Capital One Cup final Liverpool v Manchester City. The latest Premier League Statistical Analysis write up has been published here
- Rugby Union, the third weekend of the Six Nations Championship
- Racing, national hunt meetings at Newcastle, Chepstow and Kempton and on the all-weather at Lingfield
- Tennis, ATP & WTA Acapulco, Mexico. ATP Brasil Open in Sao Paulo. ATP Dubai Duty Free Tennis Championships in Dubai and WTA Qatar Total Open, Doha, Qatar.
- Golf, European Tour: ISPS HANDA Perth International,Australia and USPGA Tour: The Honda Classic, PGA National (Champion), Palm Beach Gardens, Florida.
Premier League Darts (Feb 4th - May 19th 2016)
Weekly coverage by Nigel Seeley for the 2016 Premier League Darts.
The package costs £50. Sign Up here
Cheltenham Festival (Tue 15th-Fri 18th March 2016 Package
Our full Cheltenham Package for all four days of write ups and details of all the bets that we are having is now available at £199.99. Sign up here
| Cheltenham Festival Tues 15th - Fri 18th March 2016 (Package) £199.99 - Sign up here |
| Cheltenham Preview Dinner (Sat 12th March 2016) £99.99 per ticket - Sign up here |
Free Tip
Wigan Athletic v Bury League One
Wigan were relegated from the Championship last year, the culmination of a turbulent few years on and off the field with boardroom changes and two relegations. Towards the end of last season David Whelan's grandson David Sharpe took over as chairman and Gary Caldwell as manager, a youthful partnership aiming to restore the club's fortunes. Over the coming summer the club underwent a transformation with the majority of the playing staff that had been relegated leaving and a raft of new signings arriving including the high profile arrival of Will Grigg from Brentford.
Favourites for promotion (the club benefits this season from parachute payments from the Premier League despite now playing two divisions lower) they started the season inconsistently but were challenging for the play-off places by November. They enter this weekend's match in second place, 4 points behind Burton Albion and on a superb run unbeaten in eleven league games since mid-December as their resources tell in this division. In this regard they were able to add to their squad in the January transfer window with the recruitment of the talented midfielder Sam Morsy.
Northern Ireland international Will Grigg has scored 13 goals in 25 games for Wigan this season after scoring 22 goals last season for MK Dons in their season promoted from this division. A one goal in every three game striker over a 200 game career to date, he is a one goal in every two game striker in League one over the last nearly two seasons and 67 games.
For this game Wigan are 8/13 at home to beat Bury, a side in the bottom half. Grigg takes penalties, and has scored two and missed one in the last four games and for a side that is attack-minded, a warm home favourite and in great form the 4/1 first goalscorer price looks interesting, as does the each way-market 1/3 unlimited places to score anytime
6 points each way Will Grigg First goal-scorer Wigan v Bury 4-1 Bet365 1/3 odds unlimited places (4/1 Win only BetVictor)
Steam Moves
Steam moves are a sudden and uniform line movement across an entire betting market. They are the result of money placed at multiple sports-books and, in most cases, occur due to betting groups and syndicates with the resources to “get down” at multiple locations simultaneously. The public don’t bet enough in a short amount of time to produce this kind of rapid movement. Public betting clearly has an effect on the lines, but these sudden moves will almost always be the result of “smart” money.
Historically bettors have tried to chase the line moves and find a slow-moving sports-book that hasn’t moved its line or price. While this can be profitable if the information causing the move is valid, it’s very difficult to consistently chase because you need a huge bankroll, accounts at many sports-books and lots of time to constantly track odds. These days there’s almost no delay in adjusting lines, with most sports-books will adjust to a big move within minutes. Some books use betting software so that they can react automatically to such events.
In addition professionals will understand the desire of bettors to chase these moves and will bet one side of a game to move the number in their favour then “buy-back” even bigger. As a result, it’s extremely difficult to identify which moves are legitimate. Many sports-books will limit players who continually chase these moves.
Blindly betting all perceived steam moves isn’t a sound strategy because it can be difficult to decipher what the move truly means. Some moves have more validity than others. In some cases bettors may get a better price with the opening number, and sometimes with the closing number. Treat steam moves as another piece of information to help determine how and why the line has moved for a certain sporting event.
Brodders Football Analysis
Brodders analysis and write ups throughout January 2016: In total there were 57 bets at an average of just over 14 points each. They showed a profit of +156.89 points and a ROI of 19.16%. February to date Feb +£1449 at £10 a point with an ROI of 22%
If you had bet £10 a point throughout January 2016 you would have won £1568.90
Sign up to Brodders match analysis and recommended bets here for £50 a month. You are free to cancel at any time.
|
Euro & other Football by Brodders (monthly) |
£50 Sign Up Here |
Brodders shows a long term proven profit on his Euro and other football selections. If you had bet £10 a point on every recommended bet since 2014 you would be winning £6169.30.
Getting the best price available is very important for all those who take their betting seriously.
Please open an account with all those bookmakers on the page on this link that you do not already have an account with using the links provided.
Betting Emporium results
The detailed results page has been updated as have the spreadsheets with the detailed bets. They can be found by clicking RESULTS
£10 per point on every recommended bet since launch in Feb 2013 would be winning £12,088.40 (as at 9th February 2016)
A £4000 bank (see FAQ re bank-roll requirements) betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth £16,088.40 a 350% increase
All bets have an ROI +2.30% and Horse Racing has an ROI +6.14%
There is also a Frequently Asked Questions Section
The Road to Riches Weekend of 20th-21st February
- Football, either side of the Champions League last sixteen round matches, it is the FA Cup fifth round this weekend including Chelsea v Manchester City and Tottenham v Crystal Palace.
- Racing, national hunt meetings at Haydock, Ascot and Wincanton and on the all-weather at Lingfield
- Tennis, ATP events in Rio de Janeiro, Delray Beach, Florida and Marseille. WTA Dubai Duty Free Tennis Championships.
- Golf, USPGA Tour: Northern Trust Open in Pacific Palisades, California and European Tour: Maybank Championship Malaysia in Kuala Lumpur.
- Cricket, the second T20 International between South Africa and England in Johannesburg on Sunday
Premier League Darts (Feb 4th - May 19th 2016)
Weekly coverage by Nigel Seeley for the 2016 Premier League Darts. After two of the sixteen weeks Nigel's selections were showing an 14% ROI.
The package costs £50. Sign Up here
Cheltenham Preview Night: Saturday 12th March
Following the success of last year's great Cheltenham Preview dinner we are pleased to announce details of this years.
When: Saturday 12th March 2016 (630pm Champagne reception, followed by four course dinner inc wine)
Where: The Bleeding Heart Restaurant, Bleeding Heart Yard, off Greville Street, Hatton Garden, London EC1N 8SJ
- Lovely dinner in an amazing restaurant
- Excellent panel
- A no waffle preview that is concerned only with making money for all of us
- A chance to meet the Betting Emporium team
Full details and buy tickets HERE
Free Tip by Neil Channing 3.35pm Ascot Chase
Very nice to get a big price winner for the regular Road to Riches followers last week, sadly this week there were a couple of races that had a lot of declarations which I thought might offer us four places but sadly the fields cut-up. We do still have a great race in the shape of the Ascot race which may not be the best ever Grade 1 Chase but which, (hopefully), gives us a lovely eight runners and a good each-way angle.
The favourite Silviniaco Conti would have been odds-on to win this kind of race a year ago and he'd probably eat these horses for breakfast. If he does win people will talk about what a great price he was and how obvious it looked and how you can always forgive a bad run. I tend to think there have been a few bad runs now though and I can't see this as a solid each-way bet. If anything I'd say it's a place lay.
Dynaste is another horse who has more than gone off the boil. I personally never really thought of him as a Grade 1 chaser and I don't think I'd rush to back him in Grade 2 races at short prices.
Triolo D’alene was another one I put a line through quickly. The horse is being aimed for the Grand National and I'm sure it won't be absolutely 100% buzzing here and really knocked about to win. It also, maybe more importantly, will not like the ground much.
I'm also ruling out the other Nicky Henderson horse Ma Filleule, one that I've loved over the years but one that is basically here as a stepping stone to the Ryan Air. It's so hard to peak these older horses for more than one race in a short space of time and I'd rather she runs well here in a nice preparation for the real target.
Amore Alato is an interesting runner but this could be a long way home for him and Savello is interesting in that he flits between hurdles and fences but basically he ought not to be good enough.
I'm certainly tempted by Flemenstar who has run a couple of nice races after coming back from injury and who will love this soft ground. The trip and the journey over would be my doubts and for that reason I don't want to have two bets and rely on a solid run but I was pretty tempted.
The really solid horse to my mind is Royal Regatta. We know the stable and jockey are in form, the horse has won at the track, he likes the soft ground and he definitely stays. If you were looking to find a flaw you might say that he lacks the class to win a decent Grade 1 race but I think we've established that this is far from top class and if we just need to get round in the first three to make a small profit I like the idea of betting one that ought to enjoy himself and that we know will stay. A couple of firms are doing 1/4 123 in this race and that makes this horse a great each-way bet. I'd happily take 6/1 getting 1/4 but at 1/5th odds I'd need 7/1 really.
I'm having 8 Points each-way Royal Regatta at 15/2 1/4 123 with Corals (if that goes then I'd try to get 15/2 win only on Betfair or see if firms go 7/1 when the market has settled a bit).
A different kind of season
With a hat tip to Sporting Intelligence whose table it was, after last weekend’s Premier League fixtures I saw the following table given the last title wins for sides in the current league positions listed
Premier League table (Last English league title)
1: Never
2: 1961
3: 2004
4: 2014
5: 2013
6: Never
7: Never
8: 1990
9: Never
10: Never
Of course much attention is on Leicester, who I confidently predicted would “revert to the mean” when I wrote on the subject in December and notwithstanding a late defeat at Arsenal haven’t yet but the performances of Tottenham, West Ham, Southampton and Watford amongst others are helping break the stranglehold of the recent league winners in the top 4 and for the moment at least top ten with Chelsea sitting in the bottom half.
Last week I had the opportunity to go on a tour of the Leicester City training ground (ostensibly for my son’s birthday, but who am I kidding…) and was struck at the difference from my last visit over a decade ago.
“What’s that?” a lad pointed at a piece of apparatus behind a window
“A cryotherapy chamber. Players go in it and it aids their recovery after games” came the reply
“Here’s the indoor training facilities” said the guide, and the door opened to a hangar-sized building full of equipment, computer terminals and white boards
We moved on.
“Here are the medical and physiotherapy facilities” and in we trotted to a room that resembled a small hospital, again crammed with equipment.
As we neared the end of the tour the Guide spoke conspiratorially “The scouts work in that room” We waited for more, but he smiled and ushered us on.
This is all to illustrate just some of the factors behind the success of one of the sides doing well this season. To my mind the points of difference lie in two areas
a) Facilities outside the top 4 have caught up with the bigger clubs fast. With respect to sports science Leicester have been lucky to avoid lengthy injury absences to players this season (the injury list currently contains one player). Very few muscular injuries has been a continual theme at Leicester for some years and they have been all too frequent at Arsenal, Liverpool and Manchester United amongst others, though clearly the number of games and competitions the bigger sides play in is a factor.
b) Recruitment. For example in the summer the analytics team at Leicester looked for candidates for the kind of midfielder the club needed and Caen’s N’Golo Kante now one of the emerging starts of our league was identified. Two years ago after buying Mahrez for £400,000, a player Arsene Wenger admitted last week he had never heard of when he was transferred into English football, this was another example of where scouting at games was complemented by statistics.
One scout in an article recently said
‘Ten years ago only the top clubs could afford to watch and gather information on players across the world and make informed decisions/ Now that information is available to everyone with the stats.Technology has definitely allowed the so-called smaller clubs to close the information gap.’
We should probably expect that to continue. Once new TV rights deals start, Premier League clubs will share £8billion plus between 2016-2019. TV money now forms such a large part of a club’s turnover that gate receipts are only of marginal importance. Clubs such as Aston Villa, Newcastle and Sunderland are finding this to their cost. A greater predictor of success than historic size and fanbases is the utilisation of resources off the field in sports science and scouting.
Leicester, and other sides progressing fast off the field, once again provide a cautionary tale to taking short match prices about big Premier League names in a division with a greater spread of talent, on and off the field, than in previous years. This will accelerate in 2016-17 and onwards.
Brodders Football Analysis
Brodders analysis and write ups throughout January 2016: In total there were 57 bets at an average of just over 14 points each. They showed a profit of +156.89 points and a ROI of 19.16%. February to date Feb +£1449 at £10 a point with an ROI of 22%
If you had bet £10 a point throughout January 2016 you would have won £1568.90
Sign up to Brodders match analysis and recommended bets here for £50 a month. You are free to cancel at any time.
|
Euro & other Football by Brodders (monthly) |
£50 Sign Up Here |
Brodders shows a long term proven profit on his Euro and other football selections. If you had bet £10 a point on every recommended bet since 2014 you would be winning £6169.30.
Getting the best price available is very important for all those who take their betting seriously.
Please open an account with all those bookmakers on the page on this link that you do not already have an account with using the links provided.
Betting Emporium results
The detailed results page has been updated as have the spreadsheets with the detailed bets. They can be found by clicking RESULTS
£10 per point on every recommended bet since launch in Feb 2013 would be winning £12,088.40 (as at 9th February 2016)
A £4000 bank (see FAQ re bank-roll requirements) betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth £16,088.40 a 350% increase
All bets have an ROI +2.30% and Horse Racing has an ROI +6.14%
There is also a Frequently Asked Questions Section
The Road to Riches: Weekend of 13th-14th February
- Football, the Premier League weekend sees the top four teams meet, Arsenal v Leicester City and Manchester City v Tottenham. The latest Premier League Statistical Analysis write up has been published here
- Rugby Union, the second weekend of the Six Nations Championship
- Racing, national hunt meetings at Uttoxeter, Warwick and Newbury. On the all-weather at Wolverhampton and Lingfield
- Tennis, ATP events in Rotterdam, Buenos Aires and Memphis. WTA events in Taiwan and St Petersburg.
- Golf, European Tour: Tshwane Open in Pretoria and USPGA Tour: AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am in Pebble Beach, California.
- Cricket, the fifth and final ODI between South Africa and England in Cape Town
Premier League Darts (Feb 4th - May 19th 2016)
Weekly coverage by Nigel Seeley for the 2016 Premier League Darts. After two of the sixteen weeks Nigel's selections are showing an 18% ROI.
The package costs £50. Sign Up here
Cheltenham Preview Night: Saturday 12th March
Following the success of last year's great Cheltenham Preview dinner we are pleased to announce details of this years.
When: Saturday 12th March 2016 (630pm Champagne reception, followed by four course dinner inc wine)
Where: The Bleeding Heart Restaurant, Bleeding Heart Yard, off Greville Street, Hatton Garden, London EC1N 8SJ
- Lovely dinner in an amazing restaurant
- Excellent panel
- A no waffle preview that is concerned only with making money for all of us
- A chance to meet the Betting Emporium team
Full details and buy tickets HERE
Free Tip, the Betfair Hurdle (Newbury 3.35pm Saturday) by Neil Channing
Those of you who regularly read my Road to Riches write up will know the drill here. Although the Betfair Hurdle is a massively tough race to find the winner in and it's often one of the most competitive races of the year, it is still a great race in which to have an each-way bet and even if you just got four places that would be the case. The fact that we have a favourite that is under 5/1 and we get five places with a lot of firms mean that you just have to have a bet.
I could definitely see the favourite Blazer winning easily, it is very well in at the weights and it's trained by Willie Mullins plus Barry Geraghty has chosen it when he had a whole squad to decide between. It's hard to take around 7/2 on a horse that is so inexperienced though.
Modus has Nick Scholfield on board which doesn't massively hurt his chance but I can see why Geraghty picked Blazer over him particularly as he may not like the ground. War Sound and the two above him in the weights have a massive task giving chunks away and I reckon Starchitect could be weak in the betting as it may not like the ground, the stable is not totally firing and it's had so long off. Zarib is from a stable in good form but this one is pretty quirky and he too may not like this ground. Forest Bihan is a real dark horse but I'd like something with a little more experience that I'm confident will be thereabouts.
I'm left with three horses at below 25/1 and I'll focus on those.
Sternrubin is solid enough, he cost us a dead-heat when I thought Jolly's Cracked It had won at Ascot last time but he gamely came back after getting headed late on. He is up eight pounds and you can see why Richard Johnson would pick him. I definitely wouldn't put you off but he just doesn't quite quicken the pulse at the prices. If you like to bet three or four though this is one you must save on.
Affaire D'Honneur does not tick my box of being solid and experienced as it has only run once in the UK. The run it produced on it's Kempton debut was pretty encouraging, it has Grade One entries, it comes from a stable in form and has a great jockey. This one was impossible to give a rating to and it could be really well handicapped. I'm going to take a chance at this price.
Agrapart is also from a stable in form and is another who isn't hugely exposed. This one will probably attempt to take up the lead early on and that might make him vulnerable but at the prices I'm happy to take a chance. I certainly feel like Lizzie causes horses to go off at bigger prices than her talents deserve.
I'm having 7 Points each-way Affaire D'Honneur at 10/1 1/4 12345 with several firms.
I'm having 5 Points each-way Agrapart at 20/1 1/4 12345 with Bet365 and Paddy Power.
Point Spreads
Most people view the Point-Spread (or line) as the predicted margin of victory of one team over another. The job though of a bookmaker is to get a balance of staked money on both sides. By achieving this, with c50% of the money being wagered on each team, the bookmaker is guaranteed to make money. The usual odds in point spread bets are 10/11. If the point spread splits the money, the bookmaker effectively uses the money from the losing side to pay the winners and has the extra 10% as margin.
To do this, an odds compiler is really gauging public perception. For example, if Team A is 4 points better than Team B, but the public thinks that Team A is 6 points better than Team B, then the points spread is more likely to be closer to 6 points (public perception) than it will be to 4 points (the realistic difference between the teams). So, the job of a handicapper is to be more right than the general betting public.
The large majority of people that bet on sporting events believe that they are going to win, but the fact is that the large majority of sports bettors lose in the long run. In fact, the average sports bettor wins at a rate of 48%. The break-even mark is 52.4% (you need to win 11 bets for every 10 you lose and 11 divided by 21 is equal to .524). Even the best and most knowledgeable handicappers win at a rate of about 57% to 60% in the long run. Misperceptions exist in the minds of many.
First, there are many sports bettors that think winning 60% of their bets is easy and that they can do even better than that. More than likely, those that think that they win at least 60% of their bets are suffering from selective memory, which entails remembering their winning weeks while forgetting about the losses.. The other popular misconception is that winning 58% of your bets will not make you much money. On the contrary, 58% winners at 10/11 odds will make you profit over the course of the year.
Brodders Football Analysis
We hope that you enjoyed all of Brodders analysis and write ups throughout January 2016. In total there were 57 bets at an average of just over 14 points each. They showed a profit of +156.89 points and a +ROI of 19.16%
If you had bet £10 a point throughout January 2016 you would have won £1568.90
Sign up to Brodders match analysis and recommended bets here for £50 a month. You are free to cancel at any time.
|
Euro & other Football by Brodders (monthly) |
£50 Sign Up Here |
Brodders shows a long term proven profit on his Euro and other football selections. If you had bet £10 a point on every recommended bet since 2014 you would be winning £6169.30.
Getting the best price available is very important for all those who take their betting seriously.
Please open an account with all those bookmakers on the page on this link that you do not already have an account with using the links provided.
Betting Emporium results
The detailed results page has been updated as have the spreadsheets with the detailed bets. They can be found by clicking RESULTS
£10 per point on every recommended bet since launch in Feb 2013 would be winning £12,088.40 (as at 9th February 2016)
A £4000 bank (see FAQ re bank-roll requirements) betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth £16,088.40 a 350% increase
All bets have an ROI +2.30% and Horse Racing has an ROI +6.14%
There is also a Frequently Asked Questions Section
The Road to Riches Weekend of 6th-7th February
- Football, a full Premier league weekend including Manchester Cty v Leicester City on Saturday lunchtime. A Premier League Statistical Analysis write up has been published here
- NFL, Superbowl 50 from Santa Clara, California, the Denver Broncos v the Carolina Panthers
- Rugby Union, the opening weekend of the 2016 Six Nations.
- Racing, national hunt meetings at Sandown, Wetherby and Ffos Las and on the all weather at Lingfield
- Tennis, ATP Open Sud de France in Montpellier, ATP Garanti Koza Sofia Open and ATP Ecuador Open Quito. Fed Cup World Group 1st Round ties.
- Golf, USPGA Tour: Waste Management Phoenix Open at TPC Scottsdale in Arizona. European Tour: Omega Dubai Desert Classic, Emirates GC, Dubai.
- Cricket, the second ODI between South Africa and England in Port Elizabeth
NFL - Super Bowl XLX (inc the prop bets)
Superbowl 50, Carolina Panthers v Denver Broncos is on February 7th
The package costs £25. Sign up here
(If you subscribed to the playoffs the Super Bowl is included)
This is one of the best situations of the whole year for finding excellent value and bookmaker mistakes.
NFL 2014 Superbowl and Playoffs results: 231 points bet, 31.7 points profit, +13.72% ROI
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Free Tip South Africa v England Second ODI Cricket 6th February
In the first game of the five match series in Bloemfontein on Wednesday England went 1-0 up scoring 399 then ahead on Duckworth-Lewis when the rain came midway through the second innings.
On Saturday (8am GMT start) the second game takes place in the coastal town of Port Elizabeth In terms of the outright market for this second game, South Africa 10/11 England Evens sees a shortening of the England price after their first game victory.
Unlike the first game this is not a day-nighter. In day-night ODIs outside the UK there is often a big advantage to winning the toss and batting, putting up a score and then defending a total under lights. The Port Elizabeth match is a day-only game.
England’s approach to ODIs is much changed. Only a year ago the side was eliminated from the group stages of the World Cup in Australasia, followed by a disappointing result on the tour of the West Indies. In this format England had failed to move with the times, new regulations ((two power-plays, only four fielders outside the inner ring for the first forty overs) demanded a more aggressive batting approach than the way England had set up their ODI innings for decades, to accumulate in the early overs and then accelerate at the end.
This changed with the appointment of a new coach in the summer and a new team selection policy going for youth from the swathe of talented players in domestic cricket in the ODI and T20 formats. Results since have been encouraging, losing 3-2 to the number one ranked Australians at the end of the Ashes tour and then winning against Pakistan 3-1 at the end of the UAE tour.
Specifically since the beginning of last summer England have four scores of 350+ and one of over 400. England reached 350 twice in their first 645 ODIs. They have reached it 5 times in 15 ODIs since then. In the first game of this series, England’s 399 was their highest ever away ODI score and was the first time 8 different batsmen have hit a six in an ODI innings. The England ODI team has rebuilt quickly, around a much younger core that is likely to be competitive in every series for the foreseeable future.
Port Elizabeth’s ground is within sight of the Ocean and traditionally offers support for swing bowlers, especially with the new ball. They have been four ODI’s at the ground since 2010, against varied opposition (West Indies, Australia, India and Pakistan) and in those games only 13 of the 53 wickets have fallen to spinners. Steyn has a 6 for and Morkel a 4 for opening the bowling in those games In the outright market. There is not as much toss bias as a day-nighter as both teams will be bowling in identical conditions.
England’s bowling attack in the first ODI saw Willey and Topley take the new ball, Jordan at first change, Rashid and Ali for the middle overs and Stokes as the sixth bowler. Bloemfontein produced blameless batting conditions with little help for the quicks, and Ali took 3 of the 5 South African wickets to fall.
A key question for the Port Elizabeth game will be team selection and rotation. There is Broad to come back in, and possibly Woakes too and Jordan the most vulnerable. What I think we know is that David Willey will take the new ball and herein lies the opportunity. Willey knocked over Hashim Amla early in Bloemfontein and bowled 5 overs up top. He would have then bowled another two in the second power-play and then three at the end of the innings.
At Port Elizabeth having the swinging new ball is an advantage. He will usually bowl the rest of his overs at a time when batsmen are attacking and often against tail-enders. He has become one of the England’s key options at the “death” with his ability to vary pace and bowl yorkers.
So far in a fledgling England career that saw him began well in T20s then move into the ODI side he has 19 wickets in 11 50 over games. Hs strike rate (26) and economy (5.5 runs an over) is right up there in this era of high scores and batsmen friendly regulations.
The top England bowler sub-market is as follows:
Broad 3/1
Rashid 7/2
Willey 7/2
Woakes 4/1
Topley 4/1
Ali 9/2
Jordan 5/1
Stokes 6/1
Two of these players will miss out. Narrowing it down, lets exclude the spinners here, ignore Jordan and Woakes as being inconsistent wicket-takers and suggest that Stokes might not bowl ten overs. That leaves us Broad, Topley and Willey. At the prices the presence of Broad in the market and probably the team creates an opportunity to back Willey, bowling at both ends of the innings in conditions that will suit.
6 points David Willey Top England bowler second ODI 7/2 BetVictor or Ladbrokes
One Direction?
Either side of Trials weekend in the run up to the 2016 Cheltenham Festival much attention has been paid to the dominance of the Willie Mullins yard in National Hunt racing. For the upcoming festival, ante post markets have Mullins at 1/11 to be top Cheltenham trainer, and only 7/4 to train more than 10 winners at the festival. Leading Mullins owner Rich Ricci is just 6/4 to have five or more winners. On Thursday, entries for the next declaration stage were announced with for example Mullins having 18 of 64 entries for the Supreme and 22 of 78 entries for the Neptune. This within the context of a 26% decline in entries for all the novice events at this stage compared to 2015.
Even after Djakadam’s fall over trials weekend, Mullins has ten festival favourites, following on from his record performance of eight winners at the 2015 festival:
- MIN - Supreme
- DOUVAN - Arkle Trophy
- FAUGHEEN - Champion Hurdle
- ANNIE POWER - Mares' Hurdle
- BLACK HERCULES - National Hunt Chase
- BELLSHILL - Neptune
- UN DE SCEAUX - Champion Chase
- KILLULTAGH VIC - JLT Novices' Chase
- UP FOR REVIEW - Albert Bartlett
- LIMINI - Mares' Novice Hurdle
- VAUTOUR - Ryanair Chase and the Cheltenham Gold Cup
Whether this is a good or bad thing or even matters has been a subject of much debate. Perhaps there was a similar debate in the eras of Michael Dickinson and Martin Pipe too.
What the sport has currently is a combination of occurrences that have tilted the balance in favour of one yard. Not only does Mullins have the patronage of one of the most passionate and wealthy owners Rich Ricci but as well as Ricci having deep pockets horses like Min have shown the skill of Mullins’ bloodstock agents in acquiring cheaper horses too. In addition Ruby Walsh described recently as 'a great jockey riding great horses' is 4/11 to be Festival top jockey and only 5/4 to ride three or more winners on the Tuesday of the festival alone.
At the same time as the combination of resources and expertise in Mullins yard is producing so many prospects, the Paul Nicholls and Nicky Henderson yards are, by their high standards, in the doldrums so the top end of the sport appears to lack depth of competition. After 30 years at the top, the Henderson yard recently imported tonnes of Wexford sand to create a Mullins-style gallop in a sign that much like Nicholls and Hobbs deriving knowledge from looking at the Pipe yards fitness techniques a generation ago, Mullins is now seen as the benchmark within the training industry.
One of the consequences of this could be seen on the first day of Cheltenham when Min, Douvan, Faugheen and Annie Power/Vroum Vroum Mag race and potentially (after the near miss last year with Annie Power falling at the last when clear) a big swing for punters and bookmakers alike with big bets rolled up if the first few go in as markets expect. Already, the bookie PR accounts on social media are showing pictures of big Mullins accumulators, presumably in the hope of attracting more of the same and then getting one beat on the day.
One of the reasons they might be doing this is that the dominance of the Mullins stable has reportedly had a negative effect on betting turnover for the festival. When leading contenders such as Vautour and Annie Power are still to be confirmed for a particular race 'non-runner, no bet' markets are the only option. Several Mullins favourites are odds-on six weeks before the festival. Backing alternatives at the meeting last year was often costly and it could be similar this time round, and that makes for a very different Cheltenham Festival this year from some others where Championship races gave us 5/1 the field and punting puzzles to solve in addition to those found in the big field handicaps.
All the factors mentioned earlier, from financial resources to talent in the whole operation, have given us a temporary dominance of one team over the championship contests in ante-post markets. As we saw last year though, in a festival which in many races gave us a glimpse of what many expect to see again this year, the victory of Coneygree in the Gold Cup showed there is still scope for a smaller yard to disrupt the seemingly inevitable flow of big prizes back to County Carlow.
Meanwhile, back to this weekend, and Mullins had five of the 14 entries for Saturday's Scilly Isles Novices' Chase at Sandown with Black Hercules, McKinley, Outlander, Pleasant Company and Pont Alexandre to choose his participants from.
Brodders Football Analysis
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