'Stattobets Dave' Football (up until 30th Nov 2019)
Scottish League Two - Saturday 16th November
Scottish League Two is always a fun division – and there are a couple of bets worth taking small interests in this weekend.
Stirling Albion currently sit 9th in League Two, five points behind Annan Athletic in 6th, but they have a chance to close the gap and move away from Brechin at the bottom this weekend. We’ve been seeing improved results for the hosts since mid-September following a woeful start to the season, and they are now 3-4-1, most recently beating Albion Rovers 3-0 and held onto Cove’s coattails in losing by a respectable 1-0 last weekend.
Recent shot data (53% of shots and 57% of shots-on-target) suggests they are now performing as a mid-table side and I don’t expect their troubles to continue indefinitely. A rise up the table looks on the cards.
This week’s opponents Annan have not matched last season standards. Their home form has been decent, but they’ve lost four from six road trips this campaign, conceding 15 goals. They’ve seen a mixed bag of results overs recent weeks – 3-3-3 over their last nine in fact, and achieving just a 32% shot ratio over their last six games suggests they are definitely not the force they once were.
We’re taking the hosts in this one at 13/10 with a few firms – RedZoneSports, Bet Fred and Bet365 among them.
Our other pick has started to move already, so it might pay to get on today. Queens Park travel to Cowdenbeath who are more than beatable after going five matches without a win now. That included losing 3-0 at Broxburn Athletic, and going down 1-0 to Annan last weekend. Underneath that have achieved just a 44% shot ratio this season, dropping to 40% more lately.
Queens Park make the trip having recently thrashed Brechin 5-2 last time out, and winning 3-0 at Stenhousmuir prior to that. The shot numbers they have posted thus far this season have been incredibly strong – 137-88 is the shot count (61%) and 54-43 on-target (56%). With home advantage so slender north of the border, they look well worth backing at 9/5 in this one.
15pts Stirling Albion to beat Annan at 13/10 (RedZoneSports, Bet365)
10pts Queens Park to beat Cowdenbeath at 9/5 (Betfair, Betway). Plenty of other firms at 7/4.
Tranmere v Wycombe - Sunday 17th November
Tranmere face Wycombe for the second time in seven days on Saturday, and the markets have been favouring the Chairboys ever since opening – backing Gareth Ainsworth’s men into around 5/4. They are close to the top of the table, but I’m not entirely convinced there is enough between these two to justify that sort of price on the away side. Tranmere more than matched Wycombe in the FA Cup on Saturday in a match which ultimately ended up 2-2, so they will be coming together for a third time in the month following this one as well in the replay.
Rovers opened the season in terrible form – winning just once in their opening nine matches, but have improved and have recently secured all the points against Aston Villa U21 in the EFL Trophy, as well as beating Coventry and MK Dons away.
Wycombe are enjoying a tremendous season – second in the division on goal difference only, but there is that feeling that they are over achieving somewhat. Their solid home form has also played a big part – winning 23 of their 33 points in the League at home (7-2-0) while away they have scored just six times in seven matches.Their performance metrics have been on the wane in recent weeks, and they now look more vulnerable than at any point in the season.
Make no mistake, Wycombe are the better of the two teams, but for my money, they have now been overbet in the market here offering us a chance to back Tranmere at a value price of 21/10 with a load of layers.
16pts Tranmere to beat Wycombe at 21/10 (General)
***Betting Emporium Tips are on a 0-50pt scale. Previous StattoBets users will have been used to a 1-5pt scale. Please stake accordingly”
Bolton v MK Dons - Saturday 16th November
Taken as an average, over 13 League One matches this season, Bolton have been poor. Very poor. Their shots against column reads a whopping 261, while they have managed only 109 shots themselves, and that’s before we even start talking about xG numbers! But we don’t evaluate matches based only on season averages, and to do so would be a very dangerous game indeed.
So instead, let’s take a look at Bolton’s record since Keith Hill took charge – and began rebuilding and signing men rather than boys. He’s been in charge since the start of September, since when Bolton have gone 3-5-4. It’s not amazing, but there has been steady improvement and the side are no longer posting the worst numbers in the division and are moving on up. Only time will tell if the lost time at the start of the season, and hefty points deduction prove insurmountable but they are at least breathing.
They take on MK Dons this week, with some firms struggling to split the pair, which is a ridiculous shout in my view.
MK Dons are in a heck of a state – they have now lost 10 of their last 12, and failed to score in nine of those – netting a single goal in each of the other three. They come into this one with the added distraction of playing in midweek against Wycombe in the Leasings.com Trophy and it was no surprise to see Paul Tisdale issued with his marching orders last week.
Russell Martin may well get some reaction, but there is no way they should be as short as 7/4 for the trip up to Bolton, and we’ll back the hosts here before the price moves any shorter. Plenty of firms offer 6/4 and that’s big enough for me to get involved.
20pts Bolton to beat MK Dons at 6/4 (General)
EFL Trophy (Leasings.com) 12th November
Crawley v Oxford
Its’ a complete dead-rubber when Crawley host Oxford on Tuesday night, so it’s surprising to see some really fancy prices pinging around on the hosts. It’s certainly true Oxford have been in tremendous form, and their shot-data supports them being a very competent side indeed, while it’s also true to say that Crawley might not be entirely invested in the outcome given they are already out.
All that said though, this is likely to be a match played between two sets of fringe players, with Oxford already opting to give pitch time to the likes of Jack Stephens, Elliot Moore, Kevin Berkoe and Dan Agyei this season.
Given that fact, we are able to disregard (to a certain extent) the Oxford run of 13 games unbeaten. Sources at Oxford have told me it will be a mixed team in this one – a blend of five or six first teamers, and the rest made up of youngsters, and on that basis I’m prepared to give Crawley a chance here, even with the changes they are looking like make given the bookmakers have completely written them off.
They are available at a shade of odds-on on the +0.75 Asian Handicap Line. That means you’re getting half your stake on at +0.5, and half at +1.0.
We’ll win the whole bet if Crawley get a draw, and get half our stake back if they lose the match by a single goal. Can’t say fairer than that that in my view
10pts Crawley +0.75 at 1.95 (Bet Victor, Bet365)
***Betting Emporium Staking Plan is recommended on a 0-50pt scale. Previous StattoBets followers will have been used to a 1-5 scale***
Cheltenham v Newport
Whilst not a complete dead-rubber, Newport look likely to exit the competition on Tuesday night – they need a considerable reversal in goal difference to have any chance of progressing and it’s hard to see them all that up for this one.
Again there is some guesswork - Cheltenham were taken to an FA Cup replay, so may factor that into their team selection, but playing at home is always a boost and they look to be getting written off too lightly against a side who are all but out now.
The Robins have now gone 7-3-1 in all competitions, so form is very much on their side, while Newport have endured a more mixed set of results. When you look at the teams Newport have put out in this competition so far you see just how much they really care for it – Corey Whitely (2 league starts this season), Nick Townsend (0), Marvel Expitea (0), Taylor Maloney (1) and Dom Jeffries (0) have all started both previous games, while a host of other fringe players have been involved as well.
Cheltenham have been drifting in the markets, and are now out to 11/8 (as long as 7/5 with Coral’s) and that’s certainly a price worth backing for a team who could do with a win, and might need to go to the final whistle to ensure they progress on goal difference.
20pts Cheltenham to beat Newport at 11/8 (Ladbrokes, Corals (7/5), Betway, Bet Victor)
***Betting Emporium Staking Plan is recommended on a 0-50pt scale. Previous StattoBets followers will have been used to a 1-5 scale***
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