'Stattobets Dave' Football (up until 30th Nov 2019)
Sky Bet League Two - November 23rd
Cheltenham v Colchester
My League Two ratings make Colchester one of the best sides in the division on currently form and they could barely be better prepared for the trip over to Cheltenham this weekend. The come into this one in a nice run of four wins from their last five matches but perhaps most importantly, a well rested squad at a time in the season when knocks and bangs can really start to catch up with sides.
With their weekend match postponed due to international call-ups and no midweek activity, they get a full 11 days rest ahead of this one and should arrive in tip-top condition. Contrast that with Cheltenham’s preparation which saw them in action on November 9th (Saturday), 12th (Tuesday), 16th (Saturday) and then again on the 19th (Tuesday) thanks to an unwelcome FA Cup Replay. Back to back away trips to Exeter and Swindon won’t have been the longest bus rides, but far enough to leave them potential strugglers here.
They were pretty shocking to be honest at Exeter, registering just a single shot on target in their 0-0 draw, and it’s hard to make them as short as 11/10 in this one. I’d much rather take a chance on the away side here at 21/10 (General)
14pts Colchester to win at Cheltenham at 21/10 (General)
Leyton Orient v Forest Green Rovers
Forest Green are absolutely flying this season – 2nd in the table, and with a game in hand on Swindon above them. Their under-laying data has suggested they have probably used up most of their lady luck this season, but finally they are now starting to put in the types of performance metrics that match their lofty heights which is huge news for their fans. Their season-long shot data has seen them post just 48% of shots in their matches but more lately that’s jumped to 60%, and their recent on-target number is pushing 65%. Both are title winning type numbers, so they have hit the pace at just the right time.
We can scrub off the 6-0 defeat at Walsall in the Mickey Mouse Trophy as manager played several genuine school-boys in his side, while they probably deserved a share of the spoils against Plymouth on Saturday. I’m not concerned with their form.
They face Leyton Orient this weekend – a side who have won just three times in their last 15 matches, including a recent 2-1 defeat to Maldon and Tiptree in the FA Cup. Orient have won just twice at home all season, and so far the replacement for Ross Embleton – Carl Fletcher has won just once in seven attempts, so it already well back from the honeymoon. They’ve enjoyed just 44% of shots in their matches since he took over.
14pts Forest Green to win at Leyton Orient at 15/8 or 19/10 (Ladbrokes, Sky Bet, BlackType, Marathon, UniBet)
Plymouth v Bradford
Plymouth could do with heading north in the division sooner rather than later – they are currently 11th in the division, but are just a couple of points behind the play-offs places. There is a great deal still for them to play for. In fact, despite Bradford being 3rd, the Bantams are only four points better off.
The Pilgrims have been decent enough at home, and under Ryan Lowe most people who know this level would bet on them continuing to improve. Form is strong too – six wins in their last ten matches in all competitions, including six clean sheets, including a pretty well ground out 1-0 at Forest Green over the weekend.
My ratings suggest Bradford are probably over-achieving a bit this season, and they will come into this one having had the added inconvenience of a mid-week FA Cup replay against Shrewsbury before chalking up some chunky coach-miles down to Plymouth.
Neither side can claim to be heavy favourite in this one, but the 13/10 available on the hosts looks like a decent enough price in my eyes and they have plenty of improvement left in them this season.
20pts Plymouth to beat Bradford at 13/10 (General)
Euro 2020 Qualifier - Armenia v Greece - Friday 5pm
Greece have been a poor side for a while now, so it’s a big surprise to see them such heavy favourites to win in Armenia on Friday evening. Looking back over their results in Euro 2020 qualifying tells a sorry tale – especially on the road. They opened up with a 2-0 win in Liechtenstein in March, but since those days of optimism, they’ve had very little to cheer at all.
They drew 2-2 in Bosnia, before losing 3-0 at home to Italy, 3-2 at home to Armenia and 1-0 in Finland. A 1-1 draw with Liechtenstein was pretty embarrassing, and their 2-1 win over Bosnia last time out was too little, too late. The new method of qualification for Euro 2020 means they could yet qualify via their Nation League performance, but for now, the group here is meaningless for them.
It’s a surprise to see Armenia such a big price at home. They are a couple of points better off in the group already, and have already beaten Bosnia (4-2) and Liechtenstein (3-0) at their own place, as well as winning in Athens in June. At 13/5, Armenia look a spot of value, especially with Henrik Mikhitaryan back in the squad.
Perhaps the best way to bet this one would be to split our stakes on the match winner and the the +0.5 Asian Handicap, which is available at 4/5 with most layers, and will pay out if Armenia win the match or get a draw.
10pts Armenia (+0.5) to beat Greece at 4/5 – Asian Handicap (General)
8pts Armenia to beat Greece at 13/5 (Corals, BetFred, Bet365 (27/10), BetVictor, Marathon, Betfair Exchange)
***Betting Emporium tips are offered on a 0-50pt scale. Previous StattoBets followers will have been used to a 1-5pt scale previously**
Sky Bet League Two - Saturday 16th November
Salford welcome Swindon to Manchester on Saturday and the 21/10 available makes plenty of appeal in my eyes.
Salford endured a disastrous start to life in the Football League, winning just one in their opening eight matches (drawing five), but they do seem that have found their feet now, and since the start of September have gone 7-3-4 , and are beginning to look at home at this level – rising to 11th in the table.
It’s true that some of the shot data hasn’t been too impressive – you certainly wouldn’t see me backing them to keep a clean sheet very often for instance, but they are scoring goals which keeps them competitive in any match.
Now Swindon are an interesting case when looking at the data. They kicked off the league with some really top notch performances, and hopes of a promotion campaign would have been fully justified. 30points from 17 games certainly sees them in the frame at the moment, albeit only six points above Salfrod. Performances though have been on the wane, and a 41% shot-ratio of their last six games is simply not good enough if they are to push on for a League One berth for next season.
They are certainly a better side than Salford, but can the hosts really be as long as 21/10 here? Not for me, so it’s a small bet on Graham Alexander’s Reds
10pts Salford to beat Swindon at 21/10 (Bet365, Betfair Sportsbook, Sporting Bet, Betway)
***Betting Emporium tips are offered on a 0-50pt scale. Previous StattoBets followers will have been used to a 1-5pt scale previously**
Scottish League One - Saturday 16th November
Only four points separate Montrose (19) and Peterhead (15), but my data suggests the former are a class above this season, and it’s a real surprise to see them chalked up as long as 19/10 to win at the Balmoor Stadium this weekend.
Let’s first remind ourselves of the historical home/away advantage in this division. Since the start of the 2016/17 season, there have been 605 matches played in Scottish League One, with 259 home wins, 129 draws and 217 away wins. So 43%, 21% and 36% respectively, or put another way, if Team A plays Team A, then you expect to see odds of 11/8, 7/2, 7/4.
So if you can convince yourself that the away side are the better of the two teams involved, your point of reference is around 7/4 for where they would become value.
Montrose come into this match in absolutely tremendous form – six straight wins, beating Peterhead (4-3), Clyde (2-0), Airdrie (3-1), Stranraer (2-1), East Fife (1-0) and Forfar (3-0). Winning three of those on the road will have bred plenty of confidence, and they’ve landed a cracking 73% shot-on-target ratio during that six match run.
Peterhead are in much worse shape. Winning their last two has been good, but prior to that they went five without a win, losing four and conceding four goals on three occasions (to Falkirk, Raith and Montrose) so there are clearly holes to be plugged.
Based on our opening statistics on the away barrier being so low in Scotland, Montrose have to be the value in this one. Bet365 offer 19/10, but we’ll happily tip this one at 9/5 with a couple more firms in anticipation of the Stoke-based firm moving their price.
14pts Montrose to beat Peterhead at 9/5 (Bet365 19/10, Will Hill, Betfred, Betfair Sportsbook)
***Betting Emporium tips are offered on a 0-50pt scale. Previous StattoBets followers will have been used to a 1-5pt scale previously***
National League - 16th November
Harrogate Town have been a funny old side this season – putting together a fabulous run throughout September and October as they built a 10-match unbeaten run. As a regular attendee at the CNG Stadium I must confess to being more than a little baffled at that strong run of results though as they certainly don’t look particularly dominant at this level to my eye.
They make the trip south to Bromley this weekend, having had the not-insignificant distraction of an FA Cup tie with Portsmouth to contend with. It was a BT Sport game with the eyes of the world on them (well a few more than usual anyway), and although the 2-1 score was respectable, in truth, Town gave the ball away poorly throughout the match and we're handed plenty of space by their League One opponents.
Bromley sit top of the pile, and it’s a position I think they are well worth. They’ve recorded an overall 11-7-4 record this season including 7-4-1 at home in all competitions. Overall in the National League they have taken a 55% share of all shots in their matches – bettered only by Barrow, and 58% of all shots-on-target. Their dominance has been in operation in resent matches too despite a few results going against them.
Harrogate have carded a 47% shot-ratio and 50% shot-on-target ratio, which compares pretty poorly to their rivals this weekend.
Bromley are offered at 11/10 with plenty of firms, and that’s the wrong side of evens in my view. Back them to beat Harrogate Town is the advice.
20pts Bromley to beat Harrogate Town at 11/10 (Bet365m RedZoneSports, SportingBet)
