'Stattobets Dave' Football (up until 30th Nov 2019)
French Ligue 1 - Saturday 30th November
`12th placed Strasbourg host 9th placed Lyon this weekend, in what's been a disappointing season for the visitors so far. Already they have replaced the man at the top as they struggle to cope with the loss of Tanguy Ndombele to Spurs and Nabil Fekir to Real Betis. Their away form has certainly been part of the problem, with Rudi Garcia's side claiming just a single away win since the opening day of the season. They come into this one off the back of a long trip to Russia to face Zenit St Petersburg on Wednesday night.
Additionally Lyon are reporting that Memphis Depay, Houssem Aouar and Tiago Mendez are all injured, and Fernando Marcal is suspended. Depay is a notable absence after 11 goals in 13 matches this season, while Aouar and Mendez are both significant cogs in the centre.
Strasbourg have benefitted from an early exit from the Europa League, and have now won three of their last four matches - beating Amiens 4-0 last time out, and Nimes 4-1 prior to that. Four consecutive home wins have been banked as well (Nimes, Nice, Montpellier and Nantes) and thier shot data if towards the top end of the form table with a 60% shot ratio. Lyon are currently carding 57% on the same metric.
Strasbourg should be a lively contender in this match.
15pts Strasbourg to beat Lyon at 17/10 (Sky Bet) or 2.76* on Betfair Exchange
National League - 30th November
Bromley let us down in midweek, but I'm prepared to give them another chance as they are a side I really rate highly - as they welcome Yeovil to Hayes Lane.
That 2-1 defeat at Woking leaves them 3rd in the table, but their home record has seen them lose just once in 11 league matches and their recent form isn't as bad as it might appear. A draw and a 1-0 defeat to League One side Bristol Rovers saw them remain competitive throughout, and they then followed up with a 2-0 win at Sutton after those results.
Yeovil enjoyed a realy good tun through September, winning seven in a row, but more recentlly has slipped up a couple of times. They got hammered 4-1 by Hartlepool at home, and then lost again to Dover 1-0 - again at home. Either side of those defeats they were held by Boreham Wood, Wrexham and Aldershot.
Bromley continue to perform at the very top of the shot metrics - their 69% shot ratio over their past six games is as good as anyone, while Yeovil are decent but not posting the same sorts of numbers as their opponents this weekend.
20pts Bromley to beat Yeovil at 11/10 (Bet365 RedZoneSports)
Charlton v Sheffield Wednesday - 12:30 K.O
I'm a big fan of Sheffield Wednesday in general this season, and defintiely feel they haven't quite enjoyed the rub of the green in a great many matches this campaign. My ratings actually put them somewhere around 5th-7th best in the division, and they remain a lively contender to get on a run that would take them towards the play-offs. Gary Monk probably needs a strong run to improve is own personal stock as much as the club do.
All that said, I'm equally impressed with the job being done at Charlton by Lee Bowyer and his team - 23 points this term actually puts them as close to the play-off spots as it does the relegation zone. Defeat at Luton last week could actually be a good thing ahead of this match, with Bowyer surely demanding a solid reaction from his players after that disappointing result.
With Wednesday now without a win in their last five matches, a shock wouldn't be the strangest result come 5pm, and at 3/1 Charlton are surely value in this one. At home they are 4-2-3
12pts Charlton to beat Sheffield Wednesday at 3/1 (General)
Championship - Saturday 30th November
Championship midweek was frustration as I came close to picking Hul to beat Preston, only to see them win 4-0. That was a terrific performance against a very good side, and the Tigers will have to fancy themselves to beat Barnsley this weekend as they seek a fifth win in seven matches. Away from home they have now lost just once since the start of the season so are clearly comfortable under Grant McCann, and there is no doubt he is exceeding pre-season expectations.
A season long shot ratio of 53% gives confidence that they are legitimately a mid-table side in terms of performance levels, and they are doing even better from an expected goals perspective - currently ranking 4th in the division on that metric when looking at open play efforts, although they are considerably lower on total efforts.
They travel to Barnsley this weekend, a side with just one win all season, and whom have conceded 19 goals in 9 home games. A change at the top has failed to sort things out, with Adam Murray without a win seven matches into his tenure, and the Tykes last win was on the opening day of the season now, and last clean sheet was back in August.
Their guests since the first day of the season have scored 4 (Stoke), 2 (Bristol City), 1 (Swansea), 2 (Derby), 3 (Brentford), 2 (Leeds), 3 (Luton), 2 (Chalrton), 3 (Carlisle). That's eight of the last nine netting twice or more!
Hull look worth backing in this one, with BetFred and SportingBet offering 6/4, and Betfair Exchange currently trading at 2.48*. We'll also back Hull goals against the leakiest defence in the section.
12pts Hull to beat Barnsley at 6/4 (Betfred, SportingBet), 2.48 Betfair Exchange*
11pts Hull to score over 1.5 Goals at 10/11 (Bet365, Sky Bet, Bet Victor, Coral, Betfred, Betway, SpreadEx)
FA Cup - Sunday 1st December - Part 2
Paul Lambert is a man who knows how to prioritise. His priority for the football league season 2019/2020 is to return Ipswich Town to the Championship, and that’s his sole goal. He doesn’t care about the cups. And we can back it up strongly with data.
Ipswich have played 17 league games this season and six cup matches. The five players to have started the most league games are Cole Skuse (17 league starts, 0 cup starts), Kayden Jackson (16 league starts, 0 cup starts), Thomas Holy (14 league starts, 0 cup starts) and Luke Chambers (15 league starts, 1 cup start). Flynn Downes, James Norwood and Luke Woolfenden have each made 13 league starts and between them made just three cup starts.
Of those who have been used in the knock-out competitions, we’ve seen the likes of Janoi Donacien, Armando Dobra, Gwion Edwards, Anthony Georgiou, Emyr Huws, Myles Kenlock and James Wilson. I strongly expect to see the same approach again, and that hands Coventry a sizable advantage here.
The match will be played at St Andrews of course, but playing at their temporary home hasn’t been a problem for the Sky Blues – they are 9-3-1 at St Andrews this season – in stark contrast to their 1-8-2 record on the road.
Coventry have been in fine form throughout the season, recording and overall 10-11-3 in all competitions, and should not be under-rated here. Mark Robins fielded a strong team in the 1st Round – as his side won 2-0 at Colchester, and they have every chance of making it through to the 3rd Round and a chance of a big draw.
20pts Coventry to beat Ipswich Town at 27/20 (Ladbrokes, Corals) or 13/10 (General)