'Stattobets Dave' Football (up until 30th Nov 2019)
Slovenia - Morning Pick
ASK Bravo v Rudar Velenje - Slovenia
A really quick one here, so I won't go into mounds of detail as this kicks off just before 12noon. (11.45am).
The team news from NK Bravo in the Slovenian 1st Division is not great - Ovbokha Agboya (16 apps, 2 goals), David Brekalo (6, 0), Alen Krcic (11, 0), Aljosa Matk (17, 6) and Ibrahim Arafat Mensah (16,2) are all out, and having had a look at the depth in the squad it looks like the replacements available are significant downgrades - a mixture of youth players or aging journeymen. The above all all suspended, so there isn't even a chance of the magic sponge coming to the rescue at the last minute in this one.
This is a match between two really poor sides - Bravo have lost their last four matches now for a combined goal difference of 1-9 and have won just one of their last seven home matches in all competitions. Rudar are just as poor in fairness, but the team news is the determining factor here and it's worth a small bet on the visitors at a tidy 3/1.
4pts Rudar Velenje to beat ASK Bravo at 3/1 (Bet365, Betfair Exchange 11/4)
National League - 23rd November
Dover v Solihull
Two sides in cracking form meet at the Perry’s Crabble Stadium on Saturday, as Andy Hessenthaler’s Dover face Solihull Moors. It’s 10th v 3rd, but just five points split the pair so the gulf isn’t as great as that stat makes it appear.
Solihull are in terrific form right now, landing nine wins in their last 13 matches in all competitions, so will travel south full of confidence. There are however a couple of reasons to be wary of the visitors. The first is that they’ve been pretty busy lately – FA Cup involvement has seen them progress to the second round, while they have also been playing in the Scottish League Challenge Cup, giving them an extra match at the end of October. Since the start of October they have played 11 matches in total. Then we have the fact that their recent shot data has been well below their actual results – pointing to a slight over performance potentially. The third doubt is around their away form. While Moors have won nine home games, they have banked the maximum points in just two away matches this season.
Moving onto Dover, we have a side who have shown steady improvement since the appointment of Hessenthaler last season. Their results may not have quite matched the lofty heights of Solihull’s lately, but they have still achieved a very solid set of outcomes. Beating a handy Yeovil side 1-0 away last week was notable, while they also downed Southend in the FA Cup, got a point at Fylde and beat Eastleigh prior to that. All in all, a decent little run. In an ideal world I would definitely like a lot more home form here – their 2-3-5 record this season is admittedly shocking, but there is room for improvement and the 17/10 offered with Bet365 or 13/8 with a range of other layers is big enough to persuade me to play small on Dover here.
8pts Dover to beat Solihull Moors at 13/8 (General) - take 17/10 with Bet365 if you can.
Sao Bento v Londrina - Brazil Serie B - Tonight!
A real quick preview on this one which kicks off tonight - in a couple of hours time.
This is a fixture between two poor sides in the Brazilian second tier. Sao Bento prop up the table, while Londrina are just three places above them in the table. Just three points split the pair as we approach the end of the season and there is everything to play for. It's certainly true that Sao Bento will need a miricle to stay up now, but with this fixture being against another side in the relegation zone, it's hugely important they win - a draw isn't good enough.
Now team news is where we get excited here - Londrina are reporting a host of players out for this one, including Matheus (20apps) their regular keeper, Augusto Silva (19 apps, 1 goal), Silvio (12/0), Breno (12/0) and Alermao Teixeira (11/0) from defence, plus Higor Leite (24/1), Matheus Neris (11/0) and Andre Moritz (9/0) from the midfield. However you look at it, that's got to be a big problem for any side.
Sao Bento won their last match 3-1, and although they haven't been winning many, they have at least gone eight matches now without losing by more than the odd goal. They are being competitive. Londrina by contrast have lost five of their last six and away from home have now lost 10 of their last 11 on the road.
Sao Bento have to be the call here - available at 8/5 with Bet365 or 2.6 on the exchanges.
15pts Sao Bento to beat Londrina at 8/5 (Bet365, Betfair Exchange)
Scottish FA Cup - Saturday November 23rd
Just one pick this week in the Scottish FA Cup, where Edinburgh City warrant our support when they entertain Annan Athletic in a battle to reach to the 3rd Round.
Edinburgh have already demonstrated their intent in the competition by fielding a very strong team in the 1st round, so their league form can be relied upon as a decent gauge here. Having won 10 of their last 14 matches bodes really well therefore, and their home form this season reads 8-1-1. One of those home matches was of course a 4-0 mauling of Anna in September, so this fixture should not scare James McDonaugh’s side here.
A glance at Annan’s recent results suggest a little hit and miss over the past month or two, but of their four wins, two have come against a shambolic Brechin, plus a further draw in the FA Cup 1st Round 1stLeg against the same side. Their shot data recently puts them comfortably as a lower-mid table outfit, and we look like having a similar season to that of last year – a dominant side at the top (Cove), hunted by a decent side (Edindburgh) but not a lot more behind them.
Annan are more than beatable here, and with a decent market drift now taking the home side out to 4/5, we should ride into battle here with a decent bet.
30pts Edinburgh to beat Annan at 4/5 (Betfair Sportsbook, Marathon, Will Hill, Betway)
St Mirren v Ross County - Saturday 23rd November
The SPL is shaping up into a really interesting division this season. We have a cracking title race with Celtic and Rangers locked together on 31 points each, and just a single goal splitting them, while behind Aberdeen, Motherwell and Kilmarnock just six points separate 6th-12th.
Top of that lot are Ross County, but their performance data leaves serious question marks about their ability to maintain that position. Their five defeats this season have all been by heavy margins – losing 4-1 to Livingston, 3-0 to Aberdeen, 6-0 to Celtic, 4-0 to Rangers and 3-1 to Aberdeen in their second meeting. Two of their three wins have come by the odd goal – a 90th minute winner against St Mirren, and an 88th minute winner at Motherwell against ten-men.
They face St Mirren again this weekend, who despite being bottom of the table have a number of factors well in their favour in this one. Their overall season goal difference is actually better than that of Ross, and you only have to look at some of their results to see it wouldn’t take a huge improvement to really make a difference. They have conceded more than one goal in just six of their 16 games this season, and more than two just twice.
Over the season, St Mirren have landed 46% of shots in their matches and 40% of shots on target. By comparison Ross County have landed 37% of shots and 33% of shots on target.
St Mirren should be closer to even money in this one – perhaps even odds-on, so get the 5/4 while it’s still available.
16pts St Mirren to beat Ross County at 5/4 (General)