'Stattobets Dave' Football (up until 30th Nov 2019)
Antalyspor v Gaziantep - Super Liga - Monday 25th November
Antalyspor are a lowly 16th place in the Turkish Super Liga – very much in need of results as they look to climb away from the relegation zone. The performance data suggests they should be reasonably optimistic that it will happen sooner rather than later. A repeat of last season’s 7th place is perhaps already out of reach, but somewhere in mid-table might be a reasonable ambition.
They have landed a respectable 56% shot-ratio this season (156-125) and 51% shot-on-target ratio. They come into this one off the back of a four-match losing streak – hardly encouraging for backers, but their 1-0 defeat at Rizaspor last week saw them win the shot count 33-5 against ten-men, so it’s fair to say luck wasn’t on their side that day. Prior to that they did more than enough to get something from their match with Besiktas in losing 2-1 and matches Sivasspor ahead of that – again without reward. Surely their luck will change soon?
Gazisehir are the opponents this week – currently occupying tenth place, but the performance data suggest that’s an over achievement, with the side recording just 42% shot ratio (108-148) and the same number for on-target efforts. They have also concede 21 goals in just 11 games, so are clearly vulnerable. Their form is better, but only marginally – winning just one of their last six. They also come into this one without centre-half Junior Maranhao, midfielder Abdul Tetteh and centre-forward Muhammet Demir.
10pts Antalyspor to beat Gazisehir Gaziantep at Evens (SportingBet), 2.02 (Betfair Exchange), 2.1 (Matchbook)
Midweek League Two - November 26th
Forest Green v Crewe
I mentioned in the wekeend League Two preview that Forest Green are finally posting the sort of performance data numbers that support their lofty second position in the League Two table.They kicked on again with an impressive 4-2 win at Leyton Orient. The entertain 3rd placed Crewe on Tuesday night, which is a match that currently looks like a pretty significant fixture in the promotion race.
Despite a poor start to the season performance wise, Forest Green rode that out with a strong of good results, and over their last six matches have posted a 66% shot ratio and 73% shot-on-target - both numbers comfortably making them the form team in the division now if we look at the performance data. They have also won four of their last six, and one of those defeats was essentially a youth team in action in the Football League Trophy match. In fact, they are now on a 9-4-3 run in all competitions - not too shabby at all.
Crewe are in equally good form, going 6-5-2 since mid-september. Their performance data hasn't been as strong though - 55% shot ratio over the duration of the season has dipped to 51% recently, while 58% shot-on-target ratio has dropped to 49%.They are a decent side, but they look to be getting over-rated in the market. A 5-0 win over Morecambe will have boosted their confidence following a 4-1 defeat at Northampton. They have a decent record recently, but over the past month it has read just 2-2-2.
8/5 on Forest Green is something of an insult in my view here, and we'll row in with a decent bet on this one.
30pts Forest Green to beat Crewe at 8/5 (Coral, Betway, Betfred, Marathon)
Sheffield Utd v Man Utd - Sunday 24th November
I'm not a big one for tipping too much on the Premier League. There is a rock solid market, which will reflect fully the form and injuries of both sides, and as a result, value is usually fairly difficult to spot - at least on the main markets which hold enough liquidity for us all to share a piece of the pie. Occassionally though, there is a price which just looks too appealling to ignore, and that's the case in this one between Sheffield United and Manchester United.
Chris Wilder has done an absolutely amazing job at Brammall Lane since joining in 2016 - he's won an average 1.78 points per game since taking over and has enjoyed success in every role he has had in management. There is no doubt he's a special kind of leader.
12 games into the season, the Blades find themselves a point better off than Man Utd, building a successful season on a tight defence which has conceded just nine goals in 12 matches now. That has kept them competitive against everyone they have faced this season, including a draw at Tottenham (a game they deserved to win), a 1-0 victory over Arsenal last month, a narrow 1-0 home defeat to Liverpool and a 2-2 draw at Chelsea.
Ole Gunnar Solskjaer remains under pressure at Old Trafford, although a run of five wins in six has eased that pressure somewhat. Away from home they still look slightly brittle in the Premier League League - failing to win at Wolves, Southampton, West Ham, Newcastle and Bouremouth already this season. Would you want to be backing them at even money to win at a very handy Sheffield United side? I'm far from convinced, especially with McTominay, Pogba and Bailly still out, and doubts about Matic as well.
10pts Sheffield United to beat Man United at 3/1 (Corals), 4.0 Betfair Exchange*
National League - 23rd November - Bonus Pick
Stockport v Ebbsfleet
Ebbsfleet fans have been treated to some real excitement of late, with their last nine matches producing 34 goals (3.77 per match). That's resulted in three wins, three draws and three defeats. They clearly have no problems scoring goals, but could do with working a bit harder on closing down chances on their own goal.They will miss Joshua Umerah through suspension, while Albie Morgan has been recalled to Charlton of the Championship so will be unavailable now. Along with a couple of others missing out through longer term injuries, options might be a little limited for Kevin Watson.
Given Ebbsfleet have conceeded at least two in six of thier last nine matches, Stockport will surely fancy their chances in this one. They have now won four of their last seven and have won six of ten at home and are reporting a clear bill of health in this one. Neither side are demonstrating particulalry good shot numbers - especially in the defensive areas, so we'll lean towards Stockport at odds-against prices in this one.
10pts Stockport to beat Ebbsfleet at 11/10 (UniBet, SpreadEx, RedZoneSports)
Zwolle v Fortuna Sittard - Saturday 6:45pm
PEC Zwolle and Fortuna Sittard are probably not expecting much from this season, with both sides well down the order and looking at a season of battling to ensure their survival in the Dutch top flight. One thing they do pretty much guarantee their fans though is entertainment – with goals flowing at both ends for both sides.
Starting with Zwolle, they have scored more than a goal a game this season despite being 16th in the table – scoring 19 in 13 matches. At the other end they have conceded a whopping 32 goals – 2.46 per game! Overall their matches have produced 51 goals so far this season in the League – an average of 3.9 goals per game. Of those 13 matches, 84% have gone Over 2.5 Goals, and 69% have gone over 3.5 goals – including every game they have played at home (4,4,8,4,4,6). Both sides have scored in eight of their 13 as well.
Will Fortuna Sittard play their role in an entertaining match? Again the answer looks likely to be yes. They are a couple of places above Zwolle in the table in 14th, and have scored 18 and conceded 32 in their matches – so 50 goals in 13 matches at an average of 3.84 goals per game.
Their corresponding numbers deliver nine examples of Over 2.5 Goals (69%) and eight where Over 3.5 Goals has landed (62%). Both teams have scored in eight. The data samples are big enough to draw some real conclusions here, and the market looks to be under-pricing goals in this one, in a match which should be tremendously exciting for fans.
20pts Over 3.5 goals in PEC Zwolle v Fortuna Sittard at Evens (General) (Uni Bet will give you 21/20 currently)