Weekly Articles "Road to Riches" by Rich 'Tighty' Prew
The Road to Riches Weekend of 23rd-24th July
Coming up this weekend
- Horse Racing On the flat at Ascot, Lingfield, Newcastle, Newmarket, Salisbury and York.
- Cricket, an England and South Africa ODI match at Headingley
- Formula One, the French Grand Prix
- Golf The Rocket Mortgage Classic in Detroit on the USPGA Tour and the Hero Open on the DP World Tour
- Tennis ATP Atlanta, Croatia and Kitzbeuhel Opens
Free tip
England v South Africa 3rd ODI, Leeds Sunday 11am
Placed at the start of the South Africa tour taking place in the second half of the summer, these three ODIs do not form part of the World Cup Super League and provide an opportunity to test and rest players. For example for South Africa Rabada the fast-bowling frontman will sit out as part of his workload management.
The series takes place ahead of T20 matches and a three test match series in August
On Tuesday in Durham South Africa set England 335 and won comfortably. I am writing before Friday’s second game in Manchester.
Recently England lost their series v India 2-1, drawing contrasts between the short-term result of the Test team under McCullum and the ODI team under Mott, both new coaches. Although the series loss was a lot to do with an excellent Indian seam attack, clearly the dynamic between Tests and white-ball cricket flipped on its head this past week but there is no disgrace in losing to a team with more strength in depth in short-format cricket than any other nation but this was only England’s second home loss in a bilateral ODI series since 2016 and now Ben Stokes has retired from this format, the proliferation of fixtures and formats the major issue with his statement containing a thinly veiled criticism of England’s schedule.
Jannie Malan is the South African opening batsman alongside Quinton de Kock. He’s only played 18 ODIs but in those has 885 runs at an average of 59 with seven fifties and is a good player in all conditions. His three hundreds have included one in Colombo for example. He scored a hundred in the warm up game of this tour and with De Kock the regular favourite in this market despite lower scores recently, priced on reputation, Malan is a value bet for South African top scorer given he opens the batting and the conditions are so benign for batting
He is priced at 7/2 and above for Friday’s game and would expect similar for Sunday
15 points Jannie Malan Top South Africa batsman Sundays 3rd ODI at 7/2+
Squeeze
The ECB have insisted they are "committed to driving progress and increasing the reach" of the Vitality Blast after the competition's 20th season saw a 15% decline in ticket sales compared to pre-pandemic numbers.
Last weekend’s Finals Day at Edgbaston was the competition's earliest-ever finish with The Blast squeezed into a shorter window at the start of the summer in order to accommodate the month-long window for the Hundred, which starts on August 3.
Largely because of many group games taking place on week-nights during term-time the overall attendance figure of 800,000 is down from around 920,000 in 2019, the most recent Blast season in which full crowds were permitted.
There was controversy surrounding the non-availability of six England players for Finals Day in Joe Root, Jonny Bairstow, David Willey (all Yorkshire), Jos Buttler, Liam Livingstone (both Lancashire) and Craig Overton (Somerset), who were playing the third ODI against India instead. The ECB were forced to reschedule the white-ball leg of the India series due to the postponement of the fifth Test last summer, prompting the clash between Finals Day and the end of the ODI series.
As a result of shoehorning the series into “off-peak” summer and the absence of the England stars the competition, no matter the drama on finals day itself, had a second rate feel and yet more evidence of the marginalisation of the county competitions in this new era of The Hundred.
According to the Guardian, next year's Ashes will be over by the end of July, freeing star names for the Hundred. So there will no chance that young people newly attracted to the longer game will be able to follow up their interest by watching competitive Test cricket in the summer holidays
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The Road to Riches Weekend of 16th-17th July
Coming up this weekend
- Horse Racing On the flat at Ascot, Chester, Hamilton, Newmarket, Salisbury and York.
- Cricket, England and India ODI match at Old Trafford
- Rugby Union, Summer tour test matches include Australia v England, New Zealand v Ireland and South Africa v Wales
- Golf The Open at St Andrews continues
- Tennis ATP Hamburg and Swiss Opens
Free tip
Rugby Australia v England 3rd Test in Sydney, Saturday 10.55am
The series decider with both sides having won a game so far in the series. This should be another close game. In both matches so far England have started well, Australia have been disrupted by injuries and then Australia fought back, in the first match to win 30-28 and in the second match England held on to win 25-17.
Both teams see changes because of injuries earlier in the series. For England Itoje and the two first choice sevens Curry and Underhill are out. Australian absences include Jordan Petaia and result in four changes from the last match.
I am intrigued by a couple of factors. Without the two open side flankers England have a back-row of Ludlam, Lawes and Vunipola. Huge, powerful but vulnerable later in the game to pace as the game opens up. Overall England’s back five has three number 5’s, a 6 and an 8. At 9 Eddie Jones has re-selected Danny Care. This surprised me as I thought Van Poortvliet had a great game last weekend. This incites uncertainty over entire tactical approach, which may be the plan. Will England kick as much as they did in Brisbane?
As prices suggest, it would be a surprise for the game to be more than a one score game either way.
Outright odds are Australia 8/11 England 13/10, on the handicap England +2, Australia -2.
I have a preference for Australia to rebound
15 points Australia -2.5 points at 10/11 generally
I can’t put this up as a formal recommendation, but SkyBet have a Double chance market (half time, full time) I think England (first half power, fast starts, tighter game, Farrell penalties to build a score) – Australia (more effective when the game opens up) is a real possibility at 6/1. I’ll be looking tonight to see if its available with more firms
Record Breakers
England came into this summer with one win from their 17 most recent Tests. In 145 years of Test cricket, there have been 57 successful chases of over 275. England have just nailed four in a row chasing down 277, 299, 296 and then a record 378 in just over 75 overs. These represent 4 of top 13 run chases in test history. Over 30% of England's 4th innings match winning hundreds have been scored in the last month.
The can-do culture brought in by Brendon McCullum and Ben Stokes has made the feat of achieving what others once thought impossible seem almost mundane. The star performers have been Root and Bairstow, both averaging over 100 this summer. Bairstow has equalled the record six Test centuries in a calendar year with six tests to come.
After the recent victory over India Root made the point that the bowlers have taken 20 wickets in every Test of the summer despite the flat surfaces and less helpful balls. In finding a way to do so, be it through use of Jack Leach’s spin or James Anderson’s swing, they have more than played their part. With Mark Wood, Ollie Robinson and Jofra Archer still to return, there are grounds for optimism.
There is now a six-week break before England play their next Test against South Africa at Lord’s. No doubt this high variance approach will see some disappointing days. They might have to encounter Cummins/Starc and Hazlewood on a green wicket or Ashwin on a dust bowl and such sterner tests lie ahead. For now though, the resurgence is a lot of fun
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Betting Emporium results
The detailed results page has been updated on 1st July 2022. They can be found by clicking RESULTS
If you bet £10 per point on every recommended bet since launch you would be winning + £58,947.90 All bets have an ROI +2.85%
A £4000 bank betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth £62,947.90 a 1474% increase
The Road to Riches Weekend of 9th-10th July
Coming up this weekend
- Horse Racing On the flat at Ascot, Chester, Hamilton, Newmarket, Salisbury and York.
- Formula One, the Austrian Grand Prix
- Cricket, England and India’s T20 Series and the T20 Blast Quarter-Finals
- Rugby Union, Summer tour test matches include Australia v England, New Zealand v Ireland and South Africa v Wales
- Golf next week sees The Open at St Andrews and the Barracuda Championship on the USPGA
- Tennis Wimbledon concludes and the ATP Hall of Fame Championships next week.
Free tip
T20 Blast Quarter finals
Lancashire v Essex 6.30pm Friday
The Quarter final line up is as follows:
Wednesday Surrey v Yorkshire
Thursday Birmingham v Hampshire
Friday Lancashire v Essex
Saturday Somerset v Derbyshire
Lancashire best Birmingham in the last over of their final group game last Sunday to get a home draw for the knockout stages, and finished their group with 8 wins a tie, a loss and one no result led by Croft and David with the bat and Gleeson with Ball.
Essex finished 3rd in the South Group with 9 wins, 4 losses and one no result including the notable achievement of scoring a massive 250 at Glamorgan in their last group game.
There is a crucial additional factor for this game in that the quarter-finals coincide with the England-India T20 series. This unfortunately means that after 14 group stage matches the best sides are shorn of their international white ball stars at the business end of this competition, undermining the whole tournament. A bi-product of an ever more crowded schedule and specifically The Hundred.
Surrey and Lancashire sides are the sides most affected and specifically here Lancashire are without Phil Salt, Liam Livingstone, Richard Gleeson and Jos Buttler, not that Buttler has been present bar one game in the group stages but the other three have been major contributors in the group stages. Gleeson has taken 23 wickets and Salt and Livingstone have over 500 runs combined.
This all means that Essex, a streaky team with plenty of big hitting firepower and the excellent Simon Harmer the major threat in the bowling attack, have a good chance of the upset here.
15 points Essex to beat Lancashire at Evens generally
Summer Slumbers
A couple of weeks ago I ventured down to the Oval and watched a County Championship match where over four days Surrey scored 673 and Kent replied with 330 and 360-4 whilst a mainly older crowd in gaggles of one or two spectators per row, slumbered in soporific torpor. It was a typical county game this year, where over half of the first division games have ended in a draw.
There are a number of reasons for this. Pitches all year have been dry, in part because groundsmen have been under instructions to replicate Test conditions but other factors have combined with this to produce a dearth of entertainment.
Firstly improvements in drainage technology means that very little moisture is retained in surfaces and too many pitches are not wearing. Pitches are tired as ground staff juggle the competing demands of providing tracks not only for the county game but the existing one day competitions and now the hundred and the expanding women’s game. On top of using these pitches on multiple occasions through a season sides in the county championship are allowed to apply the heavy roller at the end of each innings if they choose. They do tend to choose this as it neuters the impact of the new ball.
The County Championship las seen seven rounds of fixtures in eight weeks. In the first division average first innings scored approach 400 and 32 batsmen average more than 60.
Then there is the Dukes ball which this season has a much smaller seam and gets soft very quickly. The manufacturer has blamed COVID disrupted manufacturing lines and Stuart Broad has described it as like “bowling with plasticine”. They just haven’t swung.
Finally there is the Championship scoring system, with 16 points for a win and 8 for a draw. The 50% ratio for draw points means teams can stay up without winning a single game.
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Betting Emporium results
The detailed results page has been updated on 1st April 2022. They can be found by clicking RESULTS
If you bet £10 per point on every recommended bet since launch you would be winning + £59,082.60 All bets have an ROI +2.90%
A £4000 bank betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth £63,082.60 a 1477% increase
The Road to Riches Weekend of 2nd-3rd July
Coming up this weekend
- Horse Racing On the flat at Beverley, Carlisle, Haydock, Chester, Leicester, Nottingham and Sandown.
- Formula One, the British Grand Prix
- Cricket, the Re-arranged fourth test match between England and India at Edgbaston
- Rugby Union, Summer tour test matches include Australia v England, New Zealand v Ireland and South Africa v Wales
- Golf The Barbasol Championship on the USPGA and the Scottish Open on the DP World Tour
- Tennis Wimbledon continues
Free tip
T20 Lancashire v Birmingham 6.30pm Sunday
This weekend sees the final round of Vitality Blast T20 Group matches. In the North group at the time of writing Birmingham top, Lancashire second and the two teams meet Old Trafford on Saturday.
On Friday Lancashire lost at Worcestershire, Birmingham beat Yorkshire to go top
Birmingham have won 9 of their 13 games whilst Lancs, probably the strongest and most powerful team in the group have been slightly more unfortunate with the weather and have won 7 and tied one of their 13 games with a no result too
Derbyshire are currently level on points with Lancashire and if they win at this weekend this is a crucial game where the winners will ensure a home quarter final given to the top two finishers in each of the two groups
For Lancashire the star performers with the bat have been Stephen Croft with 421 runs at an average of 42 and overseas player Tim David with 364 runs at 36. With the ball Richard Gleeson, once of Northants when they had their very good T20 side a few years ago, has taken 20 wickets.
These are two good sides, both with match winners, but the betting value has to be with the home side
15 points Lancashire to beat Birmingham at 4/5 with Coral/Ladbrokes 4/6 elsewhere
A point to prove
Eddie Jones has turned to some of the old guard for a pivotal tour Down Under this summer as Danny Care is handed a first call-up in nearly four years, while Billy and Mako Vunipola return after being dropped in 2021
England will play three Tests against the Wallabies, with the first taking place in Perth on 2 July.
Eight uncapped players feature in the travelling group: Fraser Dingwall, Tommy Freeman, Guy Porter, Patrick Schickerling, Jack van Poortvliet and Jack Walker, while Henry Arundell and Will Joseph are included as apprentice players.
England are without a total of 10 players due to injury, with Nic Dolly, Alex Dombrandt, George Ford, Joe Launchbury, Louis Lynagh, Sam Simmonds, Kyle Sinckler, Henry Slade, Manu Tuilagi and Anthony Watson left out. Ben Youngs has not been picked due to family reasons, while Joe Marler, Elliot Daly and Max Malins also miss out.
After a disappointing six nations, in which England lacked attacking flair and pace and only just over a year out from the next World Cup England are behind the curve in their preparations and will be firm underdogs in this test series against an improved Australian side on hard, fast pitches at the end of a long season with so many absences.
For the Perth test first up Australia are 8/15 and five point handicap favourites.
StattoBets Dave Monthly Subscription - Soccer - Tennis - Darts
Stattobets write ups, analysis and bets are available to monthly subscribers.
Results = points bet 26860 profit +1132.47 ROI +4.22% Full details here
Monthly subs are £50 a month and can be cancelled at any time. You can sign up here.
Betting Emporium results
The detailed results page has been updated on 1st April 2022. They can be found by clicking RESULTS
If you bet £10 per point on every recommended bet since launch you would be winning + £59,082.60 All bets have an ROI +2.90%
A £4000 bank betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth £63,082.60 a 1477% increase
The Road to Riches Weekend of 25th-26th June
Coming up this weekend
- Horse Racing On the flat at Chester, Doncaster, Lingfield, Newcastle, Newmarket and Windsor.
- Cricket the Test Match series between England and New Zealand continues at Headingley.
- Golf The John Deere Classic on the USPGA and the Irish Open on the DP World Tour
- Tennis Wimbledon starts on Monday
Free tip
T20 Essex v Surrey Friday 7pm
Surrey have been the best team in this season’s Group stages of the T20 Vitality blast, having won 9 of their 11 games and only losing the first last night in Hove with a weakened side. They have already qualified for the knockout stages.
Recent sides have been missing Roy, Sam Curran and Topley on England duty in the Netherlands and Pollard, ruled out through injury. The first three may be in contention to return to the squad for tonight’s game
Through the season their star performer with the bat has been opener Will Jacks with 396 runs at an average of 40 including five fifties in his 10 innings. Only a young player, he already has plenty of experience in the franchise leagues around the world including the Big bash and before long is going to be in England’s set up as a clean striking hitter.
Essex sit in third place in the South Group with six wins and four losses so far. Interesting to see them odds against underdogs at home here where they are very strong and being in a tight battle for one of the four qualification places near the end of the group stages, highly motivated.
Chelmsford is one of the smaller county grounds and the likes of the returning Roy and Curran could certainly fire for Surrey but for consistency, and also opening the batting, the best bet in the top batsman market is Jacks with an opportunity here because the return of Roy as favourite lengthens Jacks’ price. I was going to tip him up at, I hoped, 3/1+ in this market but time is pressing on and no markets are available
Instead I will settle for Essex outright
15 points Essex to beat Surrey at 2.3 on Betfair, 2.28 Matchbook and 6/5 Bet365, Betfred, BetVictor
Bazball
12 months ago England played New Zealand at Lords and turned down a last day run chase at just over 3 runs an over on the last day, and the game petered out to a draw. A year later, the contrast in approach at Trent Bridge last week could not have been more stark.
Having made 553 in the first innings, the sixth highest first innings total in a Test that has ended in defeat, New Zealand lost by five wickets as England chased down their target with nearly 20 overs in hand.
In that chase Jonny Bairstow playing the innings of his life, 136 from 92 balls. Much has been written about the effect of a lot of one day and franchise cricket on Test match techniques but this innings was an example of the upside of that influence for the Test game, where run chases are more attainable due to fast scoring and the experience of pressure in chasing totals.
England’s victory really came down to their first innings, they got themselves up to New Zealand’s total but did so pushing a rate of a little over four-an-over that still left more than five sessions left in the game. So far this series they have attacked 35% of their balls faced, the highest rate since the stat has been monitored by cricviz and others.
Overall under McCullum and Stokes, a change of leadership and a bit of optimism, energy and vibrancy in the team can change things pretty quickly, it seems! This after all is the same team that went to the Caribbean, with the exception of Anderson and Broad and many of the same players that were in Australia.
StattoBets Dave Monthly Subscription - Soccer - Tennis - Darts
Stattobets write ups, analysis and bets are available to monthly subscribers.
Results = points bet 26860 profit +1132.47 ROI +4.22% Full details here
Monthly subs are £50 a month and can be cancelled at any time. You can sign up here.
Betting Emporium results
The detailed results page has been updated on 1st April 2022. They can be found by clicking RESULTS
If you bet £10 per point on every recommended bet since launch you would be winning + £59,082.60 All bets have an ROI +2.90%
A £4000 bank betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth £63,082.60 a 1477% increase
