Weekly Articles "Road to Riches" by Rich 'Tighty' Prew
The Road to Riches: Weekend of 16th-17th October
Coming up this weekend
- Horse Racing, On the flat at Ascot and Catterick and York. Over the jumps at Ffos Las, Market Rasen and Stratford and on the all-weather at Wolverhampton
- Football, Premier League fixtures include Leicester City v Manchester United
- Cricket, The start of the T20 World Cup
- Golf, the ZOZO Championship on the USPGA and on the European Tour the Mallorca Open
- Tennis, The ATP European Open in Antwerp and the VTB Kremlin Cup
Free tip
Gallagher Premiership Rugby Sale v Harlequins Friday 7.45pm
Harlequins finished fourth in the regular season last year then in the play-offs proceeded to beat Bristol from 28-0 down and Exeter 40-38 in two high scoring encounters to win the 2020-21 title. So far this season they have won all three of their games against Newcastle, Worcester and then putting 50 points on Bristol in a thrilling performance last week.
Nick Evans is a very attack minded coach, and his approach harnesses the young talent in the side notably the “next big thing” in English rugby Marcus Smith and he and the other developing players are complemented by veterans such as Danny Care and Joe Marler. A really fun team to watch, capable of scoring out of nothing.
Sale also finished in the top four of the regular season league table last year, and so far this season have had mixed fortunes beat Bath, then drawing with London Irish, losing at home to Exeter and then last weekend away to Gloucester, missing a last kick conversion to win.
Currently Sale have been fielding a relatively inexperienced side as the majority of their marquee players (Curry, De Jager, De Klerk…) have been on downtime after the Lions Tour or Playing in the rugby Championship. Curry and Manu Tuilagi are back this weekend.
Harlequins are in such form that I expect them to win narrowly despite Sale’s returning players this Friday night in Manchester
10 points Harlequins to win by 1-12 points at 15/8 with BetfairSportsbook, 9/5 PaddyPower and 7/4 Betfred
Home and Away
Home-field advantage has been waning in in the NFL. Road teams have a winning record this season, going 42-38 through the first five weeks of the season.
Last year, for the first time in NFL history, home teams had a losing record: Of the 256 games in the 2020 regular season, home teams won 127, lost 128, and one was tied. And in 2019, home teams went just 132-123-1, which was the worst cumulative record for home teams since the advent of the 16-game schedule.
Sportsbooks were among the first to notice the decline in home-field advantage. For decades, the rule of thumb was that home-field advantage was worth about three points on the spread. In the last couple years, that shifted to two points. It’s now around one point.
Whilst the absence of crowds during a COVID season was a factor last season, NFL teams seem to be getting better at silent counts to negate crowd noise, and better at finding ways to travel comfortably and achieve peak performance whether they’re at home or on the road. In today’s NFL, there’s no real difference to playing at home.
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Betting Emporium results
The detailed results page has been updated on 1st September as have the spreadsheets with the detailed bets. They can be found by clicking RESULTS
If you bet £10 per point on every recommended bet since launch you would be winning + £52,096.80 All bets have an ROI +2.66%
A £4000 bank betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth would now be worth £56,096.80 a 1302% increase
The Road to Riches: Weekend of 9th-10th October
Coming up this weekend
- Horse Racing, On the flat at Newmarket and York. Over the jumps at Chepstow and Hexham and on the all-weather at Chelmsford City
- Football, World Cup Qualifying matches include Andorra v England
- Cricket, The IPL knockout stages
- Formula One, the Turkish Grand Prix
- Golf, the CJ Cup on the USPGA and on the European Tour the Andalucia Masters
- Tennis, The ATP BNP Paribas Open at Indian wells continues
Free tip
The T20 World Cup
The ICC World Twenty tournament takes place from 17th October to 14th November in the Middle East, immediately after the conclusion of the IPL at the same venues. The top ten ranking sides are joined by six qualifiers ultimately in a Super 12, two groups of six from which two teams from each go to the semi-finals.
One Super 12 group contains Australia, defending champions the West Indies, England and South Africa, the other India, New Zealand, Pakistan and Afghanistan.
The key point when looking at the competition is that the pitches are likely to be slow and low, and spin bowling important. It is of course a big hitting format but particularly at the back end of the tournament this might not be a high scoring competition
Ante-post odds are as follows
India 5/2
England 3/1
Australia 6/1
West Indies 6/1
New Zealand 7/1
Pakistan 10/1
South Africa 12/1
Each way pays half the odds for a losing finalist.
India of course are favourites, as they should be but the 5/2 doesn’t offer much value. England have a lot of power but might not be best suited to the conditions. Australia look a very skinny price given their bowling strengths are in pace not spin and the same could be said about the West Indies.
Two value plays come in Group B, New Zealand and Pakistan, where it should be two from those two sides and India into the semi-finals. Pakistan have Babar and Rizwan, plenty of spin bowling options and a familiarity with the conditions. What they lack is a reliable middle order/finisher. New Zealand on the other hand are strong, and often under-rated, in all formats and I often find myself having to take their price in these sort of competitions, and usually get a good run.
New Zealand have the pre-eminent world batsman facing spin on slow pitches, Kane Williamson and the likes of Devon Conway and Glenn Phillips in the team give it a ot of batting depth. The side is known for its plethora of fast bowling options but the front line spinners Sodhi and Santner finished joint 3rd in the 2016 T20 World Cup wicket taking lists in India. It’s an adaptable side, and yet they are priced up as fifth favourites.
10 points each way (1/2 1,2) New Zealand to win the ICC 2021 Twenty 20 Cup at 7-1 generally
Tiger Kings?
Having flirted with relegation from the Gallagher Premiership two years ago under the previous coaching regime, the Leicester Tigers recovered to sixth position last year under new Head coach, and former England forwards coach, Steve Borthwick. Now, in the early stages of this season, they have won their first three games to lead the table. In those three wins have come victories over Exeter, Gloucester away and Saracens which was a very tough start.
Leicester are becoming a force to be reckoned with again, which is going to be good news for the national team as the improved results have coincided with the introduction of a number of talented young players many of whom are now being picked for the national squad.
A few years ago Leicester struggled in recruitment from overseas and often in a lack of pragmatism in style. They can’t be accused of that under Borthwick, as they have a gritty hard nosed forward pack, much stronger defence and a strong kicking game. In winger Potter and full back Steward they have a couple of Academy graduates destined for big things and providing the finishing to the possession provided by the forwards.
This season at least its unlikely Leicester will hold off Exexter and Saracens, especially when squad depth is tested by the nternational season, but the club is getting there.
StattoBets Dave Monthly Subscription
Stattobets write ups, analysis and bets are available to monthly subscribers.
Monthly subs are £50 a month and can be cancelled at any time. You can sign up here.
Betting Emporium results
The detailed results page has been updated on 1st September as have the spreadsheets with the detailed bets. They can be found by clicking RESULTS
If you bet £10 per point on every recommended bet since launch you would be winning + £52,096.80 All bets have an ROI +2.66%
A £4000 bank betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth would now be worth £56,096.80 a 1302% increase
The Road to Riches: Weekend of 2nd-3rd October
Coming up this weekend
- Horse Racing, On the flat at Ascot, Newmarket and Redcar. Over the jumps at Fontwell and on the all-weather at Wolverhampton
- Football, Premier League matches include Liverpool v Manchester City
- Rugby Union, the Rugby Championship continues, South Africa v New Zealand and Argentina v Australia
- Cricket, The IPL resumption continues
- Golf, the Shriners Hospitals for Children Open on the USPGA and on the European Tour the Spanish Open
- Tennis, ATP BNP Paribas Open at Indian wells and ATP Japan and China Opens
Free tip
Rugby Championship Round 6 South Africa v New Zealand, Gold Coast, Saturday 11.05am
Last weekend New Zealand secured the 2021 Rugby Championship title with a 19-17 victory over their same opponents this week, South Africa at the same venue in Townsville.
Prior to that match New Zealand had won four out of 4 scoring 170 points, conceding only 56 and scoring 23 tries against Australia and Argentina. It’s not a surprise that the first South Africa match was very different in nature against a side with a very different style (punishing defence, kick chase and kick for territory the staples of their attacking game) and it took a 78th minute penalty to take the lead for the final time in a game where the lead changed hands seven times
Before last week’s defeat South Africa had 2 wins and 2 losses, losing both matches to an improving Australia side by 2 and then 13 points.
We should expect more of the same this week. The All Blacks were pressed into numerous handling errors by the South Africa defence, whilst the breakdown forwards competed relentlessly. The fact that South Africa scored their try from a spilled high kick cemented that tactic for the rest of the game and it remains frustrating, for the neutral, to see South Africa make little attempt to utilise their outside runners with ball in hand
I see New Zealand winning again, there is no doubt about their attacking capability and now they have shown they can hang in a game against sheer power and probably can execute better this week but it is likely to be another close run thing.
10 points New Zealand to win by 1-12 points at 2/1 with Betfrair Sportsbook, 15/8 with Paddy Power, 8/5 Betfred.
Ashes to Ashes?
For England only one home Test win this summer represents their worst performance in summer series since 1999. All year selections have been made, including much rotation of players, with two key series in mind taking place this winter, The Ashes and the T20 World Cup.
Whilst the T20 team is settled and performs consistently well the Test team has both underperformed and has a number of ongoing issues.
While no-one could have foreseen the circumstances of Ben Stokes' break from cricket and also with injuries to a slew of fast bowlers a constant theme, an inexperienced batting line-up has not performed and decisions over spin-bowling haven’t been made with the long term in mind largely brought about by not playing spinners all summer,.
This time last year Dom Sibley, Zak Crawley and Ollie Pope seemed set to be half of England's Ashes top six in what would have been the end of a two-year build-up for the young batsmen. After a difficult winter in India, Sibley and Crawley were dropped over the course of the home games this summer and Pope only returned to the side at the end of the India series.
In place of Sibley (Test average 28.94), Crawley (28.34) and Pope (32.16) have come for Haseeb Hameed (35.90), Dawid Malan (28.62) and Jonny Bairstow (33.70) but none are fixtures in the side yet.
The absence of Stokes has also had a knock-on for England's spinners as they have been left out as England tried to balance a team without an all-rounder. Moeen Ali has been a temporary solution as late order batsman and spinner but has now retired from Test cricket.
As ever, England's batting will largely depend on Joe Root who has scored three times the runs of any other England batsman in 2021. Root has never made a century in nine Tests in Australia. If that does not change, it is hard to see England returning home with anything other than a heavy defeat. England could yet have Anderson and Broad opening the bowling in the first Test at the Gabba for the fourth successive Ashes tour. Despite their records Anderson has won only three of his 18 Tests in Australia, Broad one of 12.
It looks a bleak picture, if of course the tour goes ahead as planned given the tough COVID restrictions in Australia.
StattoBets Dave Monthly Subscription
Stattobets write ups, analysis and bets are available to monthly subscribers.
Monthly subs are £50 a month and can be cancelled at any time. You can sign up here.
Betting Emporium results
The detailed results page has been updated as have the spreadsheets with the detailed bets. They can be found by clicking RESULTS
If you bet £10 per point on every recommended bet since launch you would be winning + £42,703.40 All bets have an ROI +2.39%
A £4000 bank betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth £46,703.40 a 1068% increase
The Road to Riches: Weekend of 25-26th September
Coming up this weekend
- Horse Racing, On the flat at Chester, Haydock, Newmarket and Ripon. Over the jumps at Market Rasen and on the all-weather at Chelmsford City
- Football, Premier League matches include Chelsea v Manchester City
- Rugby Union, the Rugby Championship continues, New Zealand v South Africa and Australia v Argentina
- Formula One, the Russian Grand Prix in Sochi
- Cricket, The IPL resumption continues
- Golf, the Ryder Cup
- Tennis, ATP Laver Cup and Sofia Open
Free tip
The Cambridgeshire Handicap Newmarket 3.35pm Saturday by Neil Channing
For a few years it looked like there was a big disadvantage to be drawn high in this race but the last five winners came from 28, 29, 21, 29 and 25 so we can throw that out of the window. Looking at the place horses the high numbers have also done better in the last five years. I don't think I'm going to be too dogmatic about the draw here but I'll lean towards high. I will narrow the field by avoiding those at bigger than 25/1 due to the danger of betting things at bigger prices known as the favourite/longshot bias. The idea here is that you'll lose your money more slowly if you randomly bet shorter priced things than longer priced as the prices are closer to the "real price" of things happening at the shorter end of the market. The exchange markets definitely understand this concept and they are happy to let things that the bookies make 33/1 go to 46.0 but the bookmakers can't follow as they are offering each-way terms that are "too generous" and would be hugely overbroke. What we need to do is find horses that are close to their Betfair price and benefit from the enhanced place terms that the bookies offer without betting at under the odds on the win. If we stick to shorter prices that will be much easier to do.
Bubbling Over.
The cancellation of the fifth Test between England and India denied the series an end on the field after a chain of events that began when India head coach Ravi Shastri tested positive for Covid-19 during the fourth-Test, forcing three other staff members to isolate. When another member of the backroom team, a physio, tested positive on Thursday, India cancelled training and then the match two hours before the start of the first day.
India were 2-1 ahead in the series and whether or not they are ultimately deemed to have forfeited the match the cancellation has financial implications for the ECB, Old Trafford, broadcasters and sponsors, initially with full refunds for 80,000 spectators. A forfeiture would give England the match, a share of the series and World Test Championship points, to be ruled upon by the ICC.
The BCCI has offered to reschedule the match, although that is more likely to be a standalone Test, rather than the fifth match in this series. India are due back in the UK next summer for three Twenty20 and three one-day internationals.
The India players, along with some from England, left for the resumption of the IPL, the tournament having been postponed with rising coronavirus cases in India in May and it is widely felt that at least in part the Old Trafford postponement is connected to the IPL.
As for England, prospects for the winter’s Ashes series in Australia are uncertain. Some England players have indicated they may pull out of the tour if their families cannot join them in Australia. Australia has some of the strictest Covid-19 protocols in the world. The five Tests in December and January are due to be played in five states, each of which have their own rules, adding a further layer of complication.
StattoBets Dave Monthly Subscription
Stattobets write ups, analysis and bets are available to monthly subscribers.
Monthly subs are £50 a month and can be cancelled at any time. You can sign up here.
Betting Emporium results
The detailed results page has been updated as have the spreadsheets with the detailed bets. They can be found by clicking RESULTS
If you bet £10 per point on every recommended bet since launch you would be winning + £42,703.40 All bets have an ROI +2.39%
A £4000 bank betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth £46,703.40 a 1068% increase
The Road to Riches: Weekend of 18th-19th September
Coming up this weekend
- Horse Racing, On the flat at Ayr, Catterick, Newbury, Newmarket and on the all-weather at Wolverhampton
- Football, Premier League matches include Tottenham Hotspur v Chelsea
- Rugby Union, the Rugby Championship continues, New Zealand v Argentina in Perth
- Cricket, T20 Blast finals Day at Edgbaston
- Tennis, ATP Moselle in Metz
Free tip
Cricket, T20 Blast finals Day
A rarity this year for finals day with all four teams coming out of the South Group. The semi final draw is as follows
Hampshire v Somerset 11am
Kent v Sussex 2.30pm
It’s a very competitive line up as evidenced by the prices in the winners market
Somerset 5/2
Sussex 5/2
Kent 11/4
Hampshire 3/1
A point to note that in mid-September, in a competition marginalised by the advent of the Hundred and squeezed into a late slot, weather problems are a probability which will increase results and toss variance.
What of the four teams? Kent won the South group, then comfortably beat Birmingham in the Quarter final. Hampshire crept into the Quarters in 4th place in the group then squeaked past Notts in a low scoring Quarter. Somerset beat Lancashire in a high scoring Quarter final in Taunton. Sussex made the quarter finals despite five no result matches in 14 group games then beat Yorkshire in the Quarter chasing 180 to win
I do like the look of Sussex, as they have all bases covered from Tymal Mills, recently restored to the England T20 team for the upcoming World Cup , with pace to Rashid Khan with leg spin and a high powered batting line up with hitters throughout.
Lots of variance around, but they are my idea of winners here
10 points Sussex to win the T20 blast at 5/2 generally
The Long Game
It is widely known that the Houston Texans have been speaking with potential trade partners for quarterback Deshaun Watson and are speculated to have been offered a first-round draft pick, and a conditional pick that could turn into a first-round pick, which they turned down.
Meanwhile journeyman quarterback Tyrod Taylor has begun the season as the starter, with 47 starts in 10 NFL seasons. Watson, who has thrown more touchdown passes the last two seasons (59) than Taylor has thrown his entire career (54), is not going to play.
Watson is going to collect $10.54m in base salary this season, despite the fact he doesn’t ever want to play for the Texans and the Texans have no intention of ever letting him play for them. This all started last winter when national media first reported Watson wanted out of Houston for reasons related to his belief that Houston ownership had broken promises to him. A number of teams enquired about trading for him, unsurprisingly because Watson is a Top 10 NFL quarterback and only 26 years old.
Then Watson’s enormous legal problems came to light as a number of women asked Watson to pay damages for what they allege is improper sexual conduct during massage sessions. When Watson dismissed those claims as extortion, the women filed lawsuits. And the number of women doing so grew to 22 all alleging Watson sexually assaulted them or engaged in sexually inappropriate behavior during massage sessions. Eight of those women plus two others who had not filed civil suits spoke to the Houston police and filed criminal complaints.
Despite charges and counter charges, the Texans spent part of the spring still not seriously engaging teams about a trade, although the Houston Chronicle was the first to report the team would require three first-round picks and two second-rounders to move Watson.
“That’s about right, but it’s a negotiation so we figured that would be the starting point,” the NFL source said. “We didn’t think they’d actually be serious about that price with all that’s hanging over his head.”
It seems everyone understands the legal resources make giving up the significant resources Houston wants for Watson currently impossible. It also seems Houston understands their desire to get top value in exchange for Watson is not currently possible. So the Texans are going to wait for the legal issues to be resolved, and play the long game.
StattoBets Dave Monthly Subscription
Stattobets write ups, analysis and bets are available to monthly subscribers.
Monthly subs are £50 a month and can be cancelled at any time. You can sign up here.
Betting Emporium results
The detailed results page has been updated as have the spreadsheets with the detailed bets. They can be found by clicking RESULTS
If you bet £10 per point on every recommended bet since launch you would be winning + £42,703.40 All bets have an ROI +2.39%
A £4000 bank betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth £46,703.40 a 1068% increase
