Weekly Articles "Road to Riches" by Rich 'Tighty' Prew
The Road to Riches: Weekend of 23rd-24th January
The Road to Riches: Weekend of 23rd-24th January
Coming up this weekend
- Football, the FA Cup fourth round
- Horse Racing, Over the jumps at Ascot, Haydock and Taunton and on the all-weather at Newcastle
- Cricket, The second test match between England and Sri Lanka in Galle continues
- Golf, the American Express Championship on the USPGA and the Abu Dhabi HSBC Championship
Free tip
Big Bash League: Melbourne Stars v Perth Scorchers Saturday 8.15am GMT at the MCG
The Stars are 3rd after 11 games with a 5-6 win-loss record and in a tight scrap for a play off place.
They host the Perth Scorchers who have risen to second in the table with six wins from 10 games to date, all coming after four losses to start the season
The Stars feature very strong line up of domestic players, one of whom is the experienced international all-rounder Marcus Stoinis.
Stoinis tops the run charts for the team with 370 runs in 11 in 10 games, opening the batting. He leads from Glenn Maxwell with 313 runs, the only two batsmen above 200 runs for the Stars this season.
Stoinis has hit form in the second half of the eleven games scoring successively 97*, 34, 47, 13, 43 then 37 in the Melbourne Derby on Wednesday. He is a justified favourite in the Melbourne Stars Top batsman market
10 points Marcus Stoinis Top Melbounre Stars batsman at 2/1 with Betfred and William Hill
Change of Plans
In Rugby Union, the final two rounds of European pool matches that were postponed two weeks ago week will not be rearranged. The games were set to take place over the last two weekends but following a COVID related directive from the French government the two remaining rounds of pool games scheduled for this month were cancelled.
It’s believed there was much anger that eight Bayonne players tested positive following the pre-Christmas game against Leicester. The European Cup governing body reacted by stating their updated protocols would now more closely follow the measures which the French national league uses, but that has not been enough to convince officials in France and instead the Champions Cup and Challenge Cup will go straight to a knockout format in April, likely in a last-16 based off the table before the postponement. European Cup organisers (EPCR) are set to announce the revamped structure of the competitions in the coming week.
It was decided by all three domestic leagues [Premiership, Top 14 and Pro14] that the European tournaments would be completed in April and May before the finals weekend scheduled for the weekend of 22 May in Marseille.
Six Nations officials will hold urgent talks with the French government on Monday after the championship was placed into doubt by the decision, though the French currently intend to fulfil at least the first fixture and have named a six nations squad. Furthermore the reverberations of the disruption are also likely to put further pressure on the British and Irish Lions tour of South Africa in July and August which is in serious doubt.
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Betting Emporium results
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If you bet £10 per point on every recommended bet since launch you would be winning + £42,703.40 All bets have an ROI +2.39%
A £4000 bank betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth £46,703.40 a 1068% increase
The Road to Riches: Weekend of 16-17th January
Coming up this weekend
- Football, the Premier League returns, including Liverpool v Manchester United
- Horse Racing, Over the jumps at Warwick and Market Rasen and on the all-weather at Kempton and Lingfield
- Cricket, The first test match between England and Sri Lanka in Galle continues
- Golf, the Sony Open in Hawaii
Free tip
Big Bash League: Sydney Sixers v Perth Scorchers, Canberra, Saturday 7.40am
The Perth Scorchers were renowned as one of the most innovative T20 teams when Justin Langer was head coach and they won three titles and finished runners up twice. There has been upheaval since both on and off the field
This season the Scorchers started poorly with a no result and three losses in their first four games. They have then won five games in a row to move towards post-season qualification, currently sitting in thirds place in the league table.
My eye here is on the Scorchers batting line-up where Englishmen Jason Roy and Liam Livingstone open the batting. Roy especially is the definition of a “boom bust” cricketer, he’ll come off from time to time but often won’t, meaning a player coming in 3 or 4 will frequently get the majority of the 20 overs to compile a score.
Both Roy and Livingstone have only one 50 in 6 appearances this season, consistency is not their forte.
It is though the hallmark of 33 year old Colin Munro who has been batting at three. A big hitting New Zealander, he missed out on a New Zealand national team T20 contract so headed to the BBL and the Scorchers amongst a number of T20 franchises he has played for in various leagues around the world
Much like the rest of the side Munro started the BBL season slowly but has hit form with three successive 50s in his last three appearances. He is the top Scorchers run scorer this season and has faced the most balls. He missed the win over the Hobart Hurricanes on Tuesday with a short term leg injury but should be back for this game against a Sixers side sitting at the top of the table with seven wins in ten games.
10 points Colin Munro Top Perth Scorchers batsman at 7/2 William Hill,100/30 Bet365
In the Tank.
In week 17 of the NFL against Washington the Philadelphia Eagles had nothing to play for, while a win would clinch a division title and play-off berth for the Football Team. However, an Eagles victory would have put the New York Giants in the post-season instead of Washington.
The controversy came when (since sacked) Eagles head coach Doug Pederson benched starting quarterback Jalen Hurts in the second half for Nate Sudfeld after Hurts had ran for a couple of touchdowns. Washington won and the Giants missed the play-offs. For the Eagles the loss secured the sixth overall pick in this year’s NFL Draft; a victory would have dropped them to ninth.
The Eagles had good reasons to “tank”. It is possible the value of losing the game for the Eagles was equivalent to a second-round pick based on the compensation for trades moving from 9 to 6 in previous drafts.
There is now talk that the NFL should introduce a draft lottery, such as those run in the NBA and NHL. Until the advent of analytics teams in the NFL had a predominant “every game matters” philosophy. It is no coincidence the Eagles, celebrated for using analytics on their Super Bowl run three years ago, are the team that appeared to tank most obviously.
There is a logic to trading away veteran talent and accruing draft capital if you are not in contention for the play-offs. There is also logic to bad teams trying to finish with the worst record when a rare quarterback talent like Trevor Lawrence or Andrew Luck is in the next draft.
A lottery is designed to limit, but not completely negate, the purpose of the draft: to reward the worst teams. The league needs to randomise enough that the marginal benefit to losing a game goes down. The NBA already has one for all the teams who don’t make the play-offs, but it is weighted so that the worst team still has the best chance of getting the top pick. Having a true lottery, where all the non-play-off teams are put into a hat and their Draft order is drawn out at random, could virtually cut out tanking.
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Betting Emporium results
The detailed results page has been updated as have the spreadsheets with the detailed bets. They can be found by clicking RESULTS
If you bet £10 per point on every recommended bet since launch you would be winning + £42,703.40 All bets have an ROI +2.39%
A £4000 bank betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth £46,703.40 a 1068% increase
The Road to Riches: Weekend of 9th-10th January
The Road to Riches: Weekend of 9th-10th January
Coming up this weekend
- Football, the FA Cup 3rd round
- Horse Racing, Over the jumps at Chepstow, Kempton and Wincantion and on the all-weather at Chelmsford City and Lingfield
- Cricket, The Big Bash League in Australia continues
- Golf, next week the Sony Open in Hawaii
- Tennis, the Antalya and Delray Beach Opens
Free tip
FA Cup 3rd round match Newport v Brighton Sunday 7.45pm
The annual quest to find an FA Cup upset at a price resumes! Newport are second in League two, having lost only 4 of 20 league games this season. COVID has of course affected all lower league sides but prior to that Newport had been able to capitalise on cup runs in recent years to strengthen the squad to be in contention in the league.
I often look out for Newport, not just because of good cup form over several seasons but because if drawn at home, at the dual use Rodney parade, conditions can be a real leveller. The ground, home also to the Dragons rugby franchise in the Pro 14 holds under 8,000 for football. It is basic, and a planned relaying of the pitch was postponed when the pandemic hit. Last week’s league game was postponed as the surface was frozen.
Of course Brighton should be favourites. However they have no league wins in 8 games and have slipped to one place above the relegation zone. The cup cannot be their priority, rotation is assured . Over the Christmas period they rotated in the second of the three games over the holidays, at home to Arsenal and I was struck by the drop off between the first choice side and their replacements.
With Newport readily available at 11/2+, its of interest.
10 points Newport to beat Brighton at 6/1 with William Hill. 11/2 with Betfred, BetVictor and BetfairSportsbook
The Jacksonville Jaguars
With the New York Jets winning two games at the back end of the season the Jaguars with 1 win and 15 losses in the just finished regular season secured the number one draft pick in the April 2021 draft. They now look to appoint a new general manager and a new coach ahead of that.
For a side that has one winning season in the last twelve, and has won 42 games in ten years this job is regarded as probably the best one in this upcoming off-season cycle, and not just because this is the first time they will have the first overall pick. Why is this?
- Multiple draft picks in the 1st,2nd,4th,5th and 7th rounds. 11 altogether including 4 in first two rounds
- Second least cap commitments for 2021 with over $100m in projected available cap space, giving them the ability to be a player in free agency too
- Patient ownership (only two general managers and four head coaches despite the poor records of the last decade)
- A “Once in a decade” Quarterback prospect Trevor Lawrence is in the draft
- A Young roster with talent, particularly at wide receiver for Lawrence to come in and work with
All of these factors mean Jacksonville has everything that’s needed to build a perennial contender and they should be considering blockbuster hires at both positions. Whoever is appointed has to lead the team to drafting better. None of the first round picks selected before 2019 are still on the roster and only 2 of the last 14 have made the Pro bowl whilst on the roster, and this mostly from selections made in the top ten picks of the draft.
Now is the time to appoint well, draft well to amass talent and become competitive on a consistent basis.
StattoBets Dave Monthly Subscription
Stattobets write ups, analysis and bets are available to monthly subscribers.
Monthly subs are £50 a month and can be cancelled at any time. You can sign up here.
Betting Emporium results
The detailed results page has been updated as have the spreadsheets with the detailed bets. They can be found by clicking RESULTS
If you bet £10 per point on every recommended bet since launch you would be winning + £42,703.40 All bets have an ROI +2.39%
A £4000 bank betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth £46,703.40 a 1068% increase
The Road to Riches: Weekend of 2nd-3rd January
Coming up this weekend
- Football, the Premier League fixtures include Chelsea v Manchester City
- Horse Racing, Over the jumps at Ayr, Hereford and Sandown and on the all-weather at Lingfield and Wolverhampton
- Cricket, The Big Bash League in Australia continues
- Golf, next week the Tournament of Champions in Kapalua, Hawaii
Free tip
FA Cup Ante-Post
The FA Cup 3rd round takes place next weekend. We know that as in recent years it is not a priority for many Premier League teams, and in this truncated season we are ever more likely to get rotation and in some cases limited motivation from some seemingly tired squads. At least from this year there are no replays to accentuate these problems. That said, “Big Six” sides have won 7 of the last 8 FA Cups and 13 of the last fifteen, testament to strong squads so here we are looking to identify some value ante-post positions outside the big six, each way, and try to bypass some of the rotation and motivation issues by highlighting teams which are not going to be relegated or unlikely to qualify for Europe.
This is trickier this year in a congested premier league table where seven sides look to be in the relegation battle and 2nd to 10th in the table are separated by six points.
Of course any selection will need some luck with draw, all we can do is at least try to get off on the right foot and see where thirds round draws look favourable.
A couple of candidates on my short list were Leeds (concede too many goals) and Wolves (not enough firepower without Jimenez, though the January transfer window may help) with a secondary look at Newcastle (but Arsenal away to start). All should be targeting this competition. No doubt not all will!
Instead I alighted on two teams, 10th and 12th in the betting for the competition which look to be both decent teams and good prices.
The first is Southampton at 33-1, Shrewsbury at home in the third round, nine in the Premier league having only conceded 19 goals in 16 league games, well managed and plenty of scoring options too. I was particularly struck by 33-1 compared to (say) Arsenal at 10-1
The second is West Ham at 40-1, aatStockport in the third round, mid table Premier League side that could go well.
Each way terms are ½ 1,2 and of course these are speculative positions where a lot needs to go right over five months
5 points each way Southampton to win the FA Cup at 33-1 generally
5 points each way West Ham to win the FA Cup at 40-1 generally
The 2023 Rugby World Cup Draw
It has always seemed to me a bit strange to draw the Pools for a World Cup three years in advance, as was the case in Paris before Christmas for the 2023 event that France will host. Seedings based on results in the two years before the draw will of course not necessarily reflect the pecking order when the tournament eventually takes place.
England were drawn in a Pool against Japan and Argentina. Due to COVID Japan have not played since their own World Cup on 2019. Whilst of course a lot can happen in three years we’ll see what impact a year away from internationals has on their future competitiveness.
Argentina have also had problems. Due also to COVID and major changes to Super Rugby the Jaguares side folded, a franchise for whom the bulk of the national side played. That said recent results including beating the All Blacks and drawing twice with Australia are encouraging but the organisational challenges of the next three years are going to be tough to overcome.
The shape of the draw brings England a familiar problem. In the 2019 World cup they faced a knockout stage route of Australia- New Zealand- South Africa, with the third game a “bridge too far”. This route is replicated in the 2023 draw
Looking now France are the fastest improving side in the World and the All Blacks on a modest down curve. They meet in the pool stages (first game of the tournament, anyone?). Ireland once again have been drawn with Scotland, and possibly New Zealand await in the Quarter finals
The full Pools are as follows
A: New Zealand, France, Italy, Americas 1, Africa 1
B: South Africa, Ireland, Scotland, Asia Pacific 1, Europe 2
C: Wales, Australia, Fiji, Europe 1, Qualifier tournament winner
D: England, Japan, Argentina, Oceania 1, Americas 2
StattoBets Dave Monthly Subscription
Stattobets write ups, analysis and bets are available to monthly subscribers.
Monthly subs are £50 a month and can be cancelled at any time. You can sign up here.
Betting Emporium results
The detailed results page has been updated as have the spreadsheets with the detailed bets. They can be found by clicking RESULTS
If you bet £10 per point on every recommended bet since launch you would be winning + £42,703.40 All bets have an ROI +2.39%
A £4000 bank betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth £46,703.40 a 1068% increase
The Road to Riches: Weekend of 19th-20th December
Note: After this week The column will resume on Friday January 1st
Coming up this weekend
- Football, the Premier League returns including Manchester United v Leeds Utd
- Horse Racing, Over the jumps at Ascot, Haydock and Newcastle and on the all-weather at Lingfield and Wolverhampton
- Rugby Union, the 2020-21 European Champions Cup tournament continues
- Cricket, The Big Bash League in Australia
Free tip
European Champions Cup Rugby Pool 2 Gloucester v Ulster Saturday 3.15pm
Ulster began their campaign last weekend with a 22-29 loss to last season’s semi-finalists Toulouse having led 12-0 early on, a creditable performance against one of the tournament favourites in which they scored three tries.
Gloucester meanwhile were thrashed 55-10 at Lyon. There were mitigating circumstances, as they were without the injured Danny Cipriani (who this week has announced he is leaving the club immediately), Billy Twelvetrees, Joe Simpson, Jason Woodward, Freddie Clarke, Matt Garvey, Lloyd Evans, Val Rapava-Ruskin and Jack Stanley.
Coach George Skivington also rested Ollie Thorley, Mark Atkinson, Louis Rees-Zammit, Chris Harris, Jack Singleton, Ruan Ackermann and Ed Slater giving an indication that the game was not a priority compared to others in the pool given the injury absences.
The side that played had four teenagers in the squad and six other starters under the age of 23 against a Lyon side who were unbeaten in seven Top 14 games
Ordinarily Gloucester would be a very tough place to travel, with “The Shed” roaring on the home team but a small crowd will be in place this time. Ulster look the far superior team as a Tier 1 Pro 14 side leading their domestic group having won all eight games in the new season ahead of an also unbeaten Leinster. Last season they lost in the Pro 14 final to Leinster. The side contains a number of current Irish internationals although captain Ian Henderson is injured, but nonetheless a very well-rounded side.
Gloucester are seeded in tier 4 amongst the Gallagher Premiership sides. Last year they finished 7th having only won 8 of 22 league games, a season in which the coaching staff changed after the COVID resumption. In the new 2020-21 season they have so far won one of three games, beating Wasps but losing at Leicester and Harlequins.
Ulster are 1/3 outright favourites and -8 on the point spread.
10 points Ulster to win by 1-12 points at 2/1 with Betfair Sportsbook, 15/8 Paddy Power 7/5 Betfred
A game Changer
An 80 strong group of former rugby players is considering a joint legal action against the game’s governing bodies over the effects of concussions they suffered during their careers.
Meanwhile Rugby World Cup winner Steve Thompson and seven other former players claim the sport has left them with permanent brain damage - and are in the process of starting a claim against the game's authorities for negligence. The group includes former internationals from England and Wales who sustained head knocks during their careers. Since retiring, they are reported to have suffered symptoms such as memory loss, insomnia, migraines and depression.
The potential lawsuit is being hailed as a “game changer”, similar to the action taken by 4,500 former American football players in 2012 against the NFL, which may be forced to pay out $1 billion in compensation.
All eight players to have come forward so far have been diagnosed by neurologists at King's College, London, with early onset dementia and probable Chronic Traumatic Encephalopathy (CTE).
CTE can develop when the brain is subjected to numerous small blows or rapid movements - sometimes known as sub-concussions. The disease can only be diagnosed in a brain after death, but some experts believe if history of exposure is evaluated, it is reasonable to conclude that the risk increases. The embryonic nature of the science around the issue could play a key part in the success or failure of the overall case.
It has been found in the brains of dozens of former NFL players, as well as a handful of deceased footballers, including former West Bromwich Albion and England player Jeff Astle. A re-examination of his brain in 2014 found he had died from CTE.
This week the RFU CEO Bill Sweeney said “It's a very serious moment for us. There is no scientific proof of the causal link between concussion and CTE. There are differences between American football and rugby union. We are worried about reputational risk and we need to allay people’s fears.”
StattoBets Dave Monthly Subscription
Stattobets write ups, analysis and bets are available to monthly subscribers.
Monthly subs are £50 a month and can be cancelled at any time. You can sign up here.
Betting Emporium results
The detailed results page has been updated as have the spreadsheets with the detailed bets. They can be found by clicking RESULTS
If you bet £10 per point on every recommended bet since launch you would be winning + £42,703.40 All bets have an ROI +2.39%
A £4000 bank betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth £46,703.40 a 1068% increase
