Weekly Articles "Road to Riches" by Rich 'Tighty' Prew
The Road to Riches: Weekend of 17th-18th April
Coming up this weekend
- Football, The FA Cup Semi-Finals and five Premier League fixtures including Everton v Tottenham
- Horse Racing, On the flat at Brighton, Newbury, Nottingham and Thirsk. Over the jumps at Ayr and Bangor
- Golf, next week the Zurich Classic of New Orleans at TPC Louisiana on the USPGA and the Gran Canaria Open on the European Tour.
- Tennis, ATP Miami Open
Free tip
IPL Mumbai Indians v Sunrisers Hyderabad 3pm Saturday (in Chennai)
As we reach the end of the first week of the 2021 IPL the Mumbai Indians, Champions over the last two years had a disappointing start losing to RCB narrowly failing to defend 160 then rebounded to stifle KKR and defend 152 in midweek
Sunrisers meanwhile failed to chase 186 to beat KKR last weekend and followed that up with another loss to RCB.
Mumbai’s batting line up is my focus here. Rohit Sharma and Quinton de Kock, now in the side after a period in quarantine after arriving in India, open the batting with Chris Lynn opening in de Kock’s absence during the first game. Yadav, Kishan, Pollard and the two Pandyas round out the top seven. Clearly the opening pair should be favourite in any Top Mumbai batsman market
So far in the tournament Ishan Kishan, batting 4, has scored 28 and 1. He is a player to be backing though (subject of course to short term single game variance in this high variance format). Kishan broke through in last year’s IPL.
Kishan totalled 483 runs in just 12 innings at an average of 53.66 and strike rate of 144.2 having only been introduced to the side after an injury in the team. He hit 29 sixes and ended joint top run scorer in the tournament. The Former India U19 captain recently made his international debut, in the T20 series against England scoring 56 in one of his two innings opening the batting. Now 22 he is maturing, perhaps it’s overstating it to hear him described as the “new Kohli” at this stage but at 9/2 he’s a price that might not be routinely around before too many more IPL games as he continues to develop.
10 points Ishan Kishan Top Mumbai Indians run scorer at 9/2 Skybet 4/1 Betfred, Bet365
Will the Lions roar?
The British and Irish Lions’ summer tour to South Africa is set to go ahead as originally scheduled,
Contingency plans, including staging the three-match Test series in the UK, were being considered due to ongoing uncertainty caused by the coronavirus pandemic. However the Lions board has confirmed to SA Rugby its preference to stick with the initial plan of matches being hosted by South Africa during July and August. Earlier this month, the Lions board had turned down an offer from Australia to stage the tour.
Lions chairman Jason Leonard said in a statement: “We acknowledge that there is a significant amount of work still to be undertaken to deliver a robust Covid-19 countermeasure plan to ensure a successful, safe and uninterrupted tour. SA Rugby will have our full support to help implement this plan.”
The Lions, coached by Warren Gatland, are due to play Test matches in Johannesburg on July 24 and August 7, either side of a game in Cape Town on July 31.
There is still uncertainty about whether crowds will be permitted to attend matches.
President of SA Rugby Mark Alexander said: “There are serious financial implications for SA Rugby should the event take place without any supporters in attendance, and we cannot ignore that in our considerations. But we are determined that the eventual outcome will deliver the best occasion and experience for players, supporters and our commercial partners.”
While there is now a clear path for the tour to proceed, Rugby Football Union chief executive Bill Sweeney made it clear that, if South Africa are unable to host, then it will be cancelled.
A guarantee the country is able to stage it has yet to be given amid fears that a third wave of coronavirus will begin in June. South Africa have been slow in their vaccine roll out and there are cost implications for the hosts if they are unable to welcome fans into stadiums.
One idea to survive from the discussions about a home ‘tour’ is to stage four Tests between the world champions and the Lions, in addition to the send-off game against Japan at Murrayfield on June 26. All four tests could be at altitude after accepting that the traditional touring concept would have to be shelved for this summer.
The original schedule is being reviewed to reduce costs and control the risk of Covid-19 by creating as few bubbles as possible. One option under consideration is that the Lions base themselves in Gauteng Province for six weeks and play all their matches on the Highveld, using the FNB Stadium and Orlando Stadium in Soweto, Ellis Park in Johannesburg and Loftus Versfeld in Pretoria.
The other option is a twin-centred tour, which would involve the Lions playing in Cape Town. If a four-Test schedule was agreed, they could take on the Springboks at the 55,000- capacity Cape Town Stadium.
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If you bet £10 per point on every recommended bet since launch you would be winning + £42,703.40 All bets have an ROI +2.39%
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The Road to Riches: Weekend of 10th-11th April
Coming up this weekend
- Football, Premier League fixtures include Tottenham v Manchester United
- Horse Racing, Over the jumps at Aintree, Chepstow and Newcastle and on the all-weather at Lingfield and Wolverhampton
- Rugby Union, European Champions Cup Quarter finals
- Cricket, the IPL Continues
- Golf, next week the RBC Heritage at Harbour Links on the USPGA and the Austrian Open on the European Tour.
- Tennis, ATP Monte Carlo Masters
Free tip
European Champions Cup Quarter finals
Clermont-Auvergne v Toulouse 3pm Sunday
For the first time, five of the eight Champions Cup Quarter Finals teams are from France.
If one of those teams, Toulouse, are to win their first European trophy in over a decade, they will have to do it entirely on the road, starting in Clermont in the quarter-finals this weekend.
This tie represents two teams who are 4th and top of the French Top 14. Three time European finalists Clermont needed a last minute converted try to win at Wasps last weekend to reach their
11th quarter final. They have plenty of gas out wide, led by the Japanese full back Matsushima alongside Penaud and Fofana but it was their power off the bench that led them past Wasps.
Toulouse, who lost in the semi-finals at Exeter last year, won 40-31 last weekend at Munster having trailed seven points at half time. Toulouse scored all four of their tries after half-time. They were affected more than normal by the late finish to the Six Nations with their French Internationals only returning to club training in the midweek before the game. It took them a while to find some rhythm but once they did their finishing was lethal. In the brilliant Cheslin Kolbe and the French International half-backs Ntamack and Dupont they have match-winners.
Back in the Top 14 at Clermont last September Clermont beat Toulouse 33-30 though Toulouse had two red cards after31 and 49 mins and still led with 10 mins to go.
Clermont is a tough place to go, but such is the strength of the Toulouse team that the visitors are 4/6 outright and -3 on the Handicap to win here (Clermont 6/4). It should certainly be tight, but Toulouse should just prevail
10 points Toulouse to win by 1-12 points at 11/5 Betfair Sportsbook, 2/1 Paddy Power, 3.00 Betfair Exchange in low liquidity and 6/4 Betfred
365
Denise Coates, the head of Bet365, was paid £469m in 2020 in one of the biggest annual pay packets seen yet in British corporate history earning £421m from her salary and a further £48mln in dividends according to the online gambling firm’s annual report.
Coates was already one of the UK’s highest earnings before 2020 but last years’ remuneration saw a near 70% rise on the £277m she earned in the previous year.
According to the HighPay Centre, Coates earned more than the chiefs of every FTSE 100 company combined.
The pay hike came in a tough year as revenues in 2020 fell 8% to £2.8bn due to international sporting events being cancelled because of COVID-19 while profits fell 74% to £194.7m.
Bet365 said it had not cut any staff and did not use the furlough scheme during the pandemic while it had also made an £85m charitable donation to the Denise Coates Foundation.
Coates' pay tops the previous highest earner in Britain by some margin.
That was hedge fund manager and philanthropist Sir Chris Hohn, who runs The Children’s Investment (TCI) fund and in March took home £343m.
Ms Coates, Bet365’s joint chief executive, was the country’s largest taxpayer for the second year running last year, according to the latest annual Sunday Times Tax List. She and her family, who are worth £7.16bn, had a tax liability of £573 million last year and amidst the usual outrage and debate she has previously said she could offshore the business but prefers to ensure she pays taxes to fund public services.
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Stattobets write ups, analysis and bets are available to monthly subscribers.
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Betting Emporium results
The detailed results page has been updated as have the spreadsheets with the detailed bets. They can be found by clicking RESULTS
If you bet £10 per point on every recommended bet since launch you would be winning + £42,703.40 All bets have an ROI +2.39%
A £4000 bank betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth £46,703.40 a 1068% increase
The Road to Riches: Weekend of 27th-28th March
The Road to Riches will be off next week, back for the weekend of 10th-11th April
Coming up this weekend
- Football, World Cup Qualifying matches
- Horse Racing, On the flat at Doncaster, over the jumps at Kelso and Newbury and on the all-weather at Kempton and
- Rugby Union, the final match of the Six Nations Championship
- Cricket, the India-England ODI series continues in Pune
- Formula One, the start of the new season with the Bahrain Grand Prix
- Golf, the WGC-Dell Matchplay in Austin, the Corales Championship in Punta Cana on the USPGA and the Kenya Savannah Classic on the European Tour.
- Tennis, ATP Miami Open
Aintree Festival Package
It’s only two weeks until the Grand National Festival on 8th-10th April. The full package of Neil Channing’s selections and write ups costs £99 and can be purchased here
Free tip
Six Nations France v Scotland Friday 8pm
France came back to beat Wales 32-30, scoring two tires in the last ten minutes to come from ten points behind to give them a shot at winning the Six nations title. Wales picked up a losing bonus point, which means to have any chance of winning the title France must defeat Scotland in this rescheduled match with an attacking bonus point, scoring four tries. It would then come down to points difference, which currently favours Wales 61 to 41.
For long periods of the Wales match France were second best, often trying to force attacking patterns and losing accuracy. Playing 14 against 13 in the last 10 minutes proved crucial. Nowadays with all the young talent that has been introduced to the team since 2020 France have combined their flair with discipline and game management they never had before and are winning these sorts of games. By the time they hit the 2023 World Cup at home, the team will be at its peak and a real threat to win the tournament.
Scotland meanwhile dispatched Italy scoring 8 tries and will have Russell back for this game. The presence of Russell, Hogg and the Scotland backs and an under-rated back row capable of slowing down France’s ball gives them a puncher’s chance but this French side will be going for it and it will be quite the task to stay in the game.
Here Scotland are limited to selecting five English-based players because of an agreement with the Premiership looking for a victory that would take them above Ireland and Friday's visitors into second place in the Six Nations table.
Whether France will win by 20+ points is the big issue. I expect them to score tries. However Scotland have the potential to do so too and ultimately I expect France to fall just short of a tournament winning margin in this game. France are 16 point favourites on the handicap. A Six day turnaround at the end of the tournament will probably assist attack over tired defence, so another high scoring game seems likely
Splitting the stakes around a winning margin just short of France winning the Championship:
6 points France to win by 16-20 points at 6/1 Betfred,
6 points France to win by 11-15 points at 13/2 Betfred, William Hill
Rotation
For the England cricket team, the issue of player workload looks set to reach a critical point at the end of the year as England face the prospect of close to four months away from home on successive tours of Pakistan, Bangladesh, India and Australia.
The first two are a build-up to the T20 World Cup, then the Ashes tour follows soon after. Both are England’s top two priorities this year so choosing the right tours for all-format players such as Ben Stokes, Jos Buttler and Jofra Archer to rest next winter becomes almost impossible.
A host of key players missed the recent 3-1 defeat in India, including Buttler for all but the first Test, while Stokes and Archer missed the two Tests in Sri Lanka in January. The fact is these players are being rested for Test cricket in order to play in a franchise tournament.
Some players will play a full IPL straight after the white-ball leg of England’s tour of India and are also seemingly set to miss the first Test series of the home summer against New Zealand. Resting against burn-out seems unlikely to be successful when players on Test contracts understandably choose to put their bodies on the line for a payday in the IPL.
Stokes, Buttler or Archer are all are paid close to a £1m a year by England and will be key to their hopes in the T20 World Cup and the Ashes. Yet there is little else England can do under the circumstances. It seems certain all of the IPL contingent will be rested for Tests this summer, including in the marquee series against India. At least, from England’s point of view, Archer’s elbow injury problems mean he is likely to miss the IPL
With England leaving for a T20 tour of Pakistan in early October, the T20 World Cup finishing in mid-November and the Ashes likely to conclude in the middle of January, there is next to no chance for a break in the first half of next winter and why England are backing their rotation policy.
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Betting Emporium results
The detailed results page has been updated as have the spreadsheets with the detailed bets. They can be found by clicking RESULTS
If you bet £10 per point on every recommended bet since launch you would be winning + £42,703.40 All bets have an ROI +2.39%
A £4000 bank betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth £46,703.40 a 1068% increase
The Road to Riches: Weekend of 20th-21st March
Coming up this weekend
- Football, FA Cup Quarter Finals
- Horse Racing, Over the jumps at Fontwell, Kempton, Newcastle and Uttoxeter and on the all-weather at Wolverhampton
- Rugby Union, the final weekend of the Six Nations Championship
- Cricket, the India-England T20 series continues in Ahmedabad
- Golf, the Honda Classic at the PGA National on the USPGA and the Kenya Open.
- Tennis, ATP Miami Open
Free tip
Six Nations France v Wales Saturday 8pm
In France’s narrow loss at Twickenham last weekend we watched a match at a level above anything else seen so far in the Championship and the most exciting half of play we’ve seen in a long time in Northern Hemisphere International rugby.
France did fade in the last 20 minutes, which is somewhat of a habit, and indicative that they are not the complete package yet, being predominantly a young team but give it those few years until their home Rugby World Cup in 2023 and they are going to be serious contenders. Not only do they have multiple play-makers and match-winners from 9-15 but they re led superbly and have more talent up front in this generation than in previous teams of the last decade.
France have got plenty to play for here. With their postponed game against Scotland yet to be played, they are still able to win both games and potentially win the Championship.
Wales were clinical in Rome, scoring 7 tries and in style and form a far cry from the side that lost 10 of their first 13 tests under Pivac and 7 out of 10 Tests in 2020. With four wins out of four in this Championship they are a win here away from one of the more surprising Grand Slams!
What is notable is that they have scored 17 tries in 4 games, albeit assisted by playing against 14 men twice, and helped by having a brilliant young finisher in Louis Rees-Zammit on the wing and with George North rejuvenated playing in the centre. Coming up against the French Shaun Edwards coached defense will be a big test.
The fact that Wales are going to have to raise their performance further is indicated by France being 1/3 outright and seven to eight point favourites here. I do expect them to win, and potentially this could be quite high scoring. France by a score or two looks reasonable.
10 points France to win by 1-12 points 2.9 on the Betfair Exchange 9/4 Betfair Sportsbook and 7/4 Betfred
CVC
CVC’s deal with the Six Nations is for a 14.3% share (an exact seventh share) that is worth £365 million. For the RFU, which receives the biggest payment, it equates to £95 million being paid over five years.
CVC has a slice of the combined shared commercial revenue from the six unions that make up the Six Nations and it can influence who the RFU and sell its TV rights and sponsorship to and the six unions have come together to roll their rights for their autumn Tests and the Six Nations into one.
CVC only has one vote in seven on commercial deals. So if, as is pretty much guaranteed, the new TV deal for the Six Nations takes some of the games away from free-to-air TV, this cannot be said to be CVC’s doing. It would require CVC to bring at least three of the unions with it to influence the outcome of a deal.
What the unions have done, in effect, is sold off a share of their future income for a large, more immediate payment presumably used to trigger growth in the game and fill the hole caused by Covid-19.
The single biggest increase in earnings for CVC and the unions is not going to be from the Six Nations Championship but, instead, from the autumn. In future years the Autumn Nations Cup will involve the big southern hemisphere nations and the tournament’s value will grow.
CVC will need to make Test rugby work harder and it believes it can do that with better marketing and use of data. It is widely recognised that the game’s personalities are hopelessly under-promoted. in the meantime, bought itself a lucrative and reliable income stream.
StattoBets Dave Monthly Subscription
Stattobets write ups, analysis and bets are available to monthly subscribers.
Monthly subs are £50 a month and can be cancelled at any time. You can sign up here.
Betting Emporium results
The detailed results page has been updated as have the spreadsheets with the detailed bets. They can be found by clicking RESULTS
If you bet £10 per point on every recommended bet since launch you would be winning + £42,703.40 All bets have an ROI +2.39%
A £4000 bank betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth £46,703.40 a 1068% increase
The Road to Riches: Weekend of 13th-14th March
Coming up this weekend
- Football, Premier League fixtures include Arsenal v Tottenham
- Horse Racing, Over the jumps at Ayr, Hereford and Sandown and on the all-weather at Chelmsford and Wolverhampton
- Rugby Union, the Six Nations Championship continues
- Cricket, the India-England T20 series continues in Ahmedabad
- Golf, the Players Championship at TPC Sawgrass on the USPGA.
- Tennis, ATP Opens in Dubai, Mexico and Monterrey
Cheltenham 16th-19th March 2021
Next week our Cheltenham four-day package, get all of Neil’s write-ups together with the details of all our bets. The full package is available for £199 here
Free tip
Six Nations, Scotland v Ireland Sunday 3pm
This should be a very close game. Scotland of course began the Championship with the huge underdog win at Twickenham and narrowly by a point at home to Wales playing with 14 men for most of the second half. With the Paris game postponed a fortnight ago they might be a bit undercooked but will be fresh with a side that looks genuinely competitive. The pack is not a weakness, the back row is tremendous and of course in Russell and Hogg the back line has some genuine class.
Ireland lost to Wales in Cardiff first up, playing an hour with 14 men, then lost at home to France before beating Italy 48-10 in Rome. Ireland remain a bit of an enigma, never quite playing a convincing attacking style that allows them to dominate against the top sides, a bit of a hangover from the Joe Schmidt era where a side at its peak got results with a very regimented approach but are they are experienced and nuggety and gradually introducing younger talent into the team.
The interesting thing here is that Scotland are home underdogs. Of course current circumstances mean there is a whole debate to be had about lack of home advantage for crowd-less games but it still raised my eyebrow.
I expect this to be a one score game, either way. Scotland are +2 on the handicap and outright Ireland are 8/11, William Hill offer Scotland at 5/4.
10 points Scotland to beat Ireland at 5/4 with William Hill
Changes
UEFA is considering plans to overhaul the first stage of the Champions League proper amid concerns that the competition's leading clubs often qualify from their groups with games to spare.
UEFA want to change the group stage in a way that would create more games (which is not going to be popular with clubs or their managers) but also more games that matter, hence providing greater revenue and more fan engagement. They are suggesting replacing the current system of eight mini-groups with one large league table for all the clubs involved in the group stage. They would then play ten games each and qualification for the knockouts would be determined by their league standing.
One of the options under consideration is that the Champions League could become 36 teams after the current broadcast contract expires in 2024, that enlarged group stage would see the first eight teams immediately qualify for the knockouts, and then the teams ranked ninth to 24th enter a playoff.
The Premier League is believed to have discussed the potential changes, in addition to a new proposal that could see as many as six English clubs qualify for the Champions League in the future.
The system would still determine qualification for all European tournaments by domestic league position (first to seventh for the Premier league), but UEFA can then push the clubs with the strongest historic co-efficient up into their most elite competition depending on a comparison of the strength of co-efficients relative to clubs finishing in the same position in other European Leagues. However, they would still need to finish in the top seven to have their co-efficients considered, and no more than six English clubs would be allowed to qualify for the Champions League in any given season.
It remains to be seen whether all of the plans go ahead, but if UEFA can receive backing from the Premier League and its continental counterparts, we could be watching a very different Champions League in 2024.
StattoBets Dave Monthly Subscription
Stattobets write ups, analysis and bets are available to monthly subscribers.
Monthly subs are £50 a month and can be cancelled at any time. You can sign up here.
Betting Emporium results
The detailed results page has been updated as have the spreadsheets with the detailed bets. They can be found by clicking RESULTS
If you bet £10 per point on every recommended bet since launch you would be winning + £42,703.40 All bets have an ROI +2.39%
A £4000 bank betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth £46,703.40 a 1068% increase
