Weekly Articles "Road to Riches" by Rich 'Tighty' Prew
The Road to Riches Weekend of 6th-7th January
Coming up this weekend
- Horse Racing Over the jumps at Newcastle, Sandown and Wincanton and on the all weather at Kempton and Lingfield
- Football the FA Cup Third Round
- NFL Week Eighteen.
- Tennis ATP Adelaide International and ASB Classic
- Golf Sony Open in Hawaii on the USPGA and the Hero Cup in Abu Dhabi on the DP World Tour
The NFL play-offs
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Free tip
FA Cup Ante-post
A look a the FA Cup market ahead of the third round this weekend. In the last 25 years, 22 FA Cups have been won by “top six” teams (Portsmouth, Wigan and Leicester are the exceptions) and such is the strength in depth of top six squads now that a similar result should be expected this time. However 13 of the 25 runners up have been from outside the top six, and realistically ante-post bets are looking for an each way return, which requires making the final at ½ the odds 1,2.
The market this time round is 25/1 bar the top 7, including Newcastle as a side with the financial resources to be moving rapidly towards the top six.
Such is the importance of the Premier League and its prize money that most teams will rotate in the FA Cup but the motivation to do so is especially pronounced for teams battling for a top six finish or fearing relegation. A team fighting at neither end of the table can be decent value subject to the usual luck of the draw round by round, with none of the betting attention of the top teams.
A candidate this time is Crystal Palace, currently 12th in the Premier League seven points clear of 18th and with a home third round tie against a Southampton side that have other things on their mind, namely staying up. Palace are available at 50/1 in a place and 40/1 generally, more than twice the odds of the front seven in the market.
I think they can give us a run at a price. Leicester, Villa (both 33/1) and Brentford/Fulham (both 66/1) are also in the sub-set of mid-table teams for consideration. Unlikely to challenge for the top six, will win enough games not to be looking over their shoulders at the drop. Leicester have been picking strong sides through a Carabao cup run, for example. Teams such as this should see the cup as their main (only) way of getting a trophy in seasons where they look safe. Brentford have West Ham at home, Villa at home to Stevenage and Leicester/Fulham are away to lower league opposition. Villa especially look an interesting proposition with much improved form under Unai Emery. We can all pick our favourites for an ante-post selection, mine are below
12 points each way Aston Villa to win the FA Cup at 33/1 Bet365 and 25/1 generally (1/2 1,2)
10 points each way Crystal Palace to win the FA Cup at 50/1 BetVictor, Ladbrokes/Coral and 40/1 generally (1/2 1,2)
Contenders
For the second consecutive season and only the fifth time in the last 28 years NFL teams have had to start 60 quarterbacks in 2022. The record is 64 quarterbacks in 2007.
When the Los Angeles Rams traded for Matthew Stafford before the start of last season, he was healthy throughout his next 21 21 games and led the team to 16 wins and a Super-Bowl. This season Stafford went 3-6 before injuries sidelined him for the season. John Wolford then went 1-2 then Bryce Perkins went 0-1. Baker Mayfield, the club’s fourth Quarterback of the season, has since stepped in and gone 2-1.
The Rams are one of two teams to start four quarterbacks this season. Twenty teams have started two quarterbacks in 2022 and seven of those have been forced to start three quarterbacks.
Since 1995 when teams have been able to keep their quarterback starter on the field they have won 52.4% of their games. When a team has to play a backup quarterback, it wins only 41.6% of the time. When a team had to go to its third option the winning percentage dips to 32.1% and if you had to start a fourth quarterback you won only 30.2% of the time.
There have been 12 teams that have kept their first quarterback on the field for every game this season. Six of those teams lead divisions, two currently hold down wild-card spots and three others remain in the playoff hunt as the regular season ends.
Buffalo (Josh Allen), Cincinnati (Joe Burrow), Kansas City (Patrick Mahomes), Jacksonville (Trevor Lawrence), Minnesota (Kirk Cousins) and Tampa Bay (Tom Brady) all lead their divisions with healthy quarterbacks. The Los Angeles Chargers (Justin Herbert) and New York Giants (Daniel Jones) have both secured wild-card spots with 16-game starters at the quarterback position. Detroit (Jared Goff), Green Bay (Aaron Rodgers) and Seattle (Geno Smith) all remain in the post-season chase with healthy quarterbacks.
San Francisco has done the best job at managing the quarterback position. When first option Trey Lance suffered a season-ending ankle injury on the second weekend, Jimmy Garoppolo stepped in and won seven of his 10 starts. When he broke his foot in the 12th game, Brock Purdy stepped in to win all four of his starts and help the team win the NFC West with an 12-4 record.
Elsewhere rookie Kenny Pickett has won five games as Pittsburgh’s second option at the quarterback position this season as have Andy Dalton of the New Orleans Saints and Taylor Heinicke for the Washington Commanders. Cooper Rush stepped in for an injured Dak Prescott early in the season and won four of his five starts to help the 12-4 Cowboys stay in contention in the NFC East. So it is possible for back ups to keep teams rolling but they are the exception to the rule. Franchise quarterbacks get the $200 million contracts with upwards of $100 million guaranteed because they make teams contenders.
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The Road to Riches Weekend of 17th-18th December
A very Happy Christmas to all readers, the column will be back for the New Year
Coming up this weekend
- Horse Racing Over the jumps at Ascot, Haydock, Newcastle and Fakenham and on the all-weather at Lingfield
- Football, the World Cup Final
- NFL Week Fifteen.
- Cricket, England’s Pakistan test match series continues in Karachi.
- Rugby Union, the European Champions Cup continues.
Free tip
European Champions Cup Pool
Leicester v Clermont-Auvergne Pool B 3.15pm
Both teams won their opening games in Pool B last weekend, Leicester away in Wales at the Ospreys 23-17 and Clermont at home to the Stormers 24-14.
Both sides are not quite the quality of last year’s sides. Leicester were Gallagher Premiership winners but this season are 5th after 9 games with 4 wins, 4 losses and a draw. They may also, at the time of writing, be about to lose Head coach Steve Borthwick and possibly his coaching team to England.
Clermont are only 10th in the Top 14 this season with 5 wins, 6 losses and a draw having finished 7th last season and exiting Europe to Leinster in the last 16.
There is a structural issue in this tournament though with the squad resources available to the French sides far greater to those from the other nations bar Ireland due to differences in salary cap rules. I would expect this to play out in this competition with the latter stages being fought largely by French and Irish sides as was the case last year (only 2 of the last 8 sides were from England, none from Wales and Scotland).
Leicester are 4/11 favourites here, Clermont 100/30. Clermont are +8 on the handicap, which appeals getting more than a score
11 points Clermont-Auvergne +8 points at 10/11 generally
All Change
In 24 hours last week first Wales coach Wayne Pivac then England coach Eddie Jones were sacked.
Pivac had taken over after the 2019 Rugby World Cup but last year the side had only won 3 out of 12 games. He was immediately replaced with his predecessor Warren Gatland who in 12 years had taken the side to win three Grand slams and the semi-finals of the 2011 and 2019 world cups. In his role there's an option to take him through to the 2027 World Cup, and a stipulation about a root-and-branch review of pro rugby in Wales, so its not necessarily the short-term "fixer" role he'd been touted for. On the field there is likely to be a different approach with the end of back rows containing three number sevens and a more pragmatic style, though the problems of the game in Wales persist with under-funding and a weak player-pool.
Eddie Jones had a 73% win rate in his seven years with England including 3 Six Nations titles, a rugby world cup semi-final and away wins at Southern Hemisphere sides. The last year has been difficult though and performances have been way off those which the side should produce given the domestic resources available. Some of that is down to management style, some down to coaching strategy with players showing a lack of flair.
Now nine months away from the 2023 World Cup which of the two changes will work better? Both ultimately are on the same and far easier side of the competition draw
9 months out from RWC which change will work better? Both are in the same, far easier, half of draw for that tournament and in the meantime it’s the Six nations, in which both teams look way below France and Ireland. Wales host England this year, a game which will give us the first sign of what lies ahead in 2023 for both sides.
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The Road to Riches Weekend of 10th-11th December
Coming up this weekend
- Horse Racing Over the jumps at Cheltenham, Doncaster and Hereford and on the all-weather at Newcastle and Wolverhampton
- Football, the World Cup continues, into the Quarter-Finals
- NFL Week Fourteen.
- Cricket, England’s Pakistan test match series continues in Multan.
- Rugby Union, the start of the European Champions Cup
- Golf The Mauritius Open on the DP World Tour.
Free tip
European Champions Cup Pool A Racing92 v Leinster 2pm Saturday in LeHavre
The 2022-23 competition starts this weekend. 24 teams from the top six nations in European rugby and South Africa will compete, the.first year teams from South Africa are included after their recent introduction to the URC with Welsh, Irish, Scottish and Italian sides.
The twenty-four teams are seeded based on their finishing position in end of season playoffs and league positions last season and go into 2 pools of 12 from which the top 8 in each go into the last 16. Each team plays 4 pool matches
Pool A produces a humdinger of a tie for the first weekend when last season’s losing semi finalists Racing host last season’s losing finalists Leinster, who are ante-post 9/4 favouites to win the competition this year (Racing are 8/1).
This year the exciting Racing team are 3rd in the French top 14 with 7 wins from their 11 matches whilst Leinster are top of the URC, played nine won nine.
This match will see the running rugby style of Racing headlined by Finn Russell and the very quick backline but they’ll face a Leinster side that has the core of the very strong Irish National team, tactically strong and very street-wise and experienced. That said the outright prices are an eye-opener. The powerful home side are 11/8 home dogs, Leinster 8/11 and -3 on the handicap. Leinster are very good, but 8/11 away at a top 3 Top14 side? No thanks
15 points Racing92 at 11/8 Coral/Ladbrokes and 13/10 Betfred and William Hill
Changing the game
After the first summer of “Bazball” the England cricket team travelled to Pakistan for their first winter series to be presented with a pitch in Rawalpindi that was truer than the M25. To then win the highest scoring five day teat match of all-time courtesy of a declaration no other side would have made takes England’s approach to the game to the next level.
England scored 921 runs in the game at a whopping 6.73 runs per over and became the first team to score at a run or ball or above in the first innings of a test match and was the first time any team had scored 500+ runs on the first day.
England’s attacking shot percentage in the Test was 59% the highest in Test history. For context since 2015 England have attacked 49% of their balls faced in ODIs and 65% in T20s
Across 2021 England had two different Test centurions, Root (six) and Burns, in fifteen tests neither under 30. In Rawalpindi alone England had three different centurions all 28 or under, Crawley, Duckett and Pope.
McCullum and Stokes are changing the way Test cricket is played. A fearless mindsets gets them in positions to force results, in this game on the most docile pitch. Despite that intent, of course it won’t always be successful but it is game changing.
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A £4000 bank betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth £63,082.60 a 1477% increase
The Road to Riches Weekend of 3rd-4th December
Coming up this weekend
- Horse Racing Over the jumps at Bangor-on-Dee, Doncaster, Newbury and Newcastle and on the all-weather at Wolverhampton
- Football, the World Cup continues, into the knockout stages
- NFL Week Thirteen.
- Cricket, England’s Pakistan test match series begins in Rawalpindi
- Golf The Alfred Dunhill Championship on the DP World Tour.
The World Cup
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Free tip
Gloucester v Northampton Gallagher Premiership 5.30pm Saturday
After the Autumn International series domestic action continues and here two inconsistent sides meet.
8 games into the season Gloucester are 7th with four wins and four losses, three of those four wins have come at home where they have the perennial advantage of a fiercely partisan crowd. In style they are particularly strong at the line out and driving maul and likely to do well in winter conditions over the next couple of months.
Northampton are 4th in the table having also won 4 games but have a much more open style in attack and unfortunately for them in defence. They have scored 266 points in 9 games (Gloucester have scored 201) and conceded 280 (Gloucester, 204). In their five away matches Northampton have conceded 29,27,35,28 and then 45 points.
Gloucester are 8/13 favourites here, Northampton 6/4 and Gloucester -4 on the points handicap
11 points Gloucester -4 points at 10/11 generally
Running Out of Time
After a disappointing Autumn International series England rugby’s 2022 results of 5 wins from 12 games represented their worst showing since 2008. A win against a flat Japan side and a draw against a New Zealand side that self-destructed with ten minutes to go was all England had to show for four games in the Autumn and in general played poorly, with little attacking shape, players were picked out of position and tactically the side seemed a distance off competitiveness against the strongest sides.
In last weekend’s loss to South Africa England were smashed at the scrum and comprehensively lost the aerial battle, both areas being the parts of the game superiority in which is what England’s game plan is predicated on
Where do England go from from here? The 2023 Rugby World Cup is only five competitive games away. First the Six Nations, a tournament in which England have to travel to Wales and Ireland but first could lose to Scotland at home first up. England have only won 1 of their last five Scotland matches.
There is highly unlikely to be a coaching change at this stage, in part because in doing so those that appointed him would be vulnerable themselves. There may be some selection changes but of the big dilemmas – picking both Smith at 10/Farrell at 12, what to do about Vunipola and Tulagi’s waning physical dominance and balance in the back row with England feeling the need to pick a lock at 6 to shore up the line out, only the return of Courtney Lawes from injury as captain is likely to assist, with the last of those three problems.
Looking ahead to the World Cup England have a huge stroke of fortune in that a consequence of the draw having been made in 2020 sees the four strongest sides in the competition, France, South Africa, Ireland and New Zealand all in the other side of the draw.
England fans have been looking forward to a potential quarter final against Australia or Wales but now thoughts have turned to the pool itself. Are England really that strong a favourite to win it over Argentina, their first game opponents next September? If they don’t win it, and finish second in their group the likely path beyond the Quarter Finals would be Australia then South Africa/New Zealand/France.
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Betting Emporium results
The detailed results page has been updated on 1st April 2022. They can be found by clicking RESULTS
If you bet £10 per point on every recommended bet since launch you would be winning + £59,082.60 All bets have an ROI +2.90%
A £4000 bank betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth £63,082.60 a 1477% increase
The Road to Riches Weekend of 26th-27th November
Coming up this weekend
- Horse Racing Over the jumps at Bangor-on-Dee, Doncaster, Newbury and Newcastle and on the all-weather at Wolverhampton
- Football, the World Cup continues
- NFL Week Twelve.
- Rugby Union, Autumn Internationals including England v New Zealand and Wales v Australia
- Golf The Hero World Challenge on the USPGA and The South African Open and the Australian Open on the DP World Tour.
The World Cup
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Free tip
Rugby Autumn International England v South Africa Saturday 5.30pm
The Last weekend of the autumn internationals and it’s been a mixed bag for England to say the least. Now South Africa come to Twickenham, with their renowned forward power. This autumn South Africa have narrowly lost to Ireland and France followed by a comfortable win in Italy. It’s been a mixed year for the current world champions, injured fly half Handre Pollard is a big loss and they’ve been experimenting with some new combinations a year out of the World Cup, but still a big task for England to beat them here.
England were 25-6 down to the All Blacks after 70 minutes last weekend and clearly second best all over the pitch. Struggling at scrum time and the breakdown, there was little sign of creativity outside either. Then as New Zealand went to 14 men and fell off their defensive standards England threw off the shackles and scored three tries in ten minutes to draw leaving Maro Itoje to try to make sense of it all. “Why can’t we play like that for the whole game?” he wondered. It might be churlish to reply “by ignoring your coach and playing with freedom” rather than being constrained by the game plan.
In this game will that final ten minutes prove a turning point or was it just papering over the cracks? England have changed their side to combat the South African forward strength, going back to fielding a lock at blind-side flanker and effectively moving from two line out jumpers to four. The team selected doesn’t suggest an approach beyond gritting it out up front and we are likely to get a close contest in which South Africa are slightly the better team, but this is not what the outright prices suggest with England 8/15 and South Africa available at 6/4.
.South Africa are working without the unavailable Kolbe, Esterhuizen, Reinach, Wiese and Koch on Saturday and have selected two “fetchers” on the bench and no locks, presumably with an eye on dominating the breakdown
If England could refrain from actually drawing this one out of nowhere and let South Africa win a tight one this week, it would be very welcome :-)
15 points South Africa to win at 6/4 with William Hill and Coral/Ladbrokes
The NFL Cycle
The LA Rams won the Super-Bowl in February with an all-star roster built during 2019-21 via big trades (notably Stafford, Miller and Ramsey for a combined four first round draft picks) and big free agency moves. Allied to innovative coaching and with the fortune of all those players staying fit, the team turbo-charged it’s “win now” period of contention and won it all. Fastforward nine months and the team heads to Week 12 of the 2022 season with three wins. The misfortune of seeing injuries to stars Stafford and Kupp is one thing but the season has also displayed the downside of moving all-in during one particular season. That within a salary cap environment loading the roster with stars and their salaries leaves depth a problem if injuries strike. That has particularly been a problem for the offensive line this season, where such is the extent of the attrition that the offense has barely been able to function. Looking forward the team has no 2023 first round draft pick, Aaron Donald has talked retirement once and presumably will do so again if the team is not in contention and now the Rams face a rebuild
At least they have a Quarterback. It’s arguable that the Denver Broncos, who gave up the farm this off-season to acquire Russell Wilson, do not. Hampered by injury, Wilson does not appear to be capable of making second reads in this offense. The Broncos have a strong young defense but now tied to Wilson’s contract for at least three years, and with no top draft picks for the next two, it looks like a long road back for another team with three wins so far this season
At least the New Orleans Saints have four wins, but they have a parlous salary cap situation for next year, traded away their first round pick to the Eagles already and also have no franchise Quarterback. With no salary cap room and few draft picks they too are in for a long haul rebuild as the current talented roster moves past its peak with no scope to replace that talent easily.
StattoBets Dave Monthly Subscription - Soccer - Tennis - Darts
Stattobets write ups, analysis and bets are available to monthly subscribers.
Results = points bet 26860 profit +1132.47 ROI +4.22% Full details here
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Betting Emporium results
The detailed results page has been updated on 1st April 2022. They can be found by clicking RESULTS
If you bet £10 per point on every recommended bet since launch you would be winning + £59,082.60 All bets have an ROI +2.90%
A £4000 bank betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth £63,082.60 a 1477% increase
