Weekly Articles "Road to Riches" by Rich 'Tighty' Prew
The Road to Riches Weekend of 3rd-4th December
Coming up this weekend
- Horse Racing Over the jumps at Bangor-on-Dee, Doncaster, Newbury and Newcastle and on the all-weather at Wolverhampton
- Football, the World Cup continues, into the knockout stages
- NFL Week Thirteen.
- Cricket, England’s Pakistan test match series begins in Rawalpindi
- Golf The Alfred Dunhill Championship on the DP World Tour.
The World Cup
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Free tip
Gloucester v Northampton Gallagher Premiership 5.30pm Saturday
After the Autumn International series domestic action continues and here two inconsistent sides meet.
8 games into the season Gloucester are 7th with four wins and four losses, three of those four wins have come at home where they have the perennial advantage of a fiercely partisan crowd. In style they are particularly strong at the line out and driving maul and likely to do well in winter conditions over the next couple of months.
Northampton are 4th in the table having also won 4 games but have a much more open style in attack and unfortunately for them in defence. They have scored 266 points in 9 games (Gloucester have scored 201) and conceded 280 (Gloucester, 204). In their five away matches Northampton have conceded 29,27,35,28 and then 45 points.
Gloucester are 8/13 favourites here, Northampton 6/4 and Gloucester -4 on the points handicap
11 points Gloucester -4 points at 10/11 generally
Running Out of Time
After a disappointing Autumn International series England rugby’s 2022 results of 5 wins from 12 games represented their worst showing since 2008. A win against a flat Japan side and a draw against a New Zealand side that self-destructed with ten minutes to go was all England had to show for four games in the Autumn and in general played poorly, with little attacking shape, players were picked out of position and tactically the side seemed a distance off competitiveness against the strongest sides.
In last weekend’s loss to South Africa England were smashed at the scrum and comprehensively lost the aerial battle, both areas being the parts of the game superiority in which is what England’s game plan is predicated on
Where do England go from from here? The 2023 Rugby World Cup is only five competitive games away. First the Six Nations, a tournament in which England have to travel to Wales and Ireland but first could lose to Scotland at home first up. England have only won 1 of their last five Scotland matches.
There is highly unlikely to be a coaching change at this stage, in part because in doing so those that appointed him would be vulnerable themselves. There may be some selection changes but of the big dilemmas – picking both Smith at 10/Farrell at 12, what to do about Vunipola and Tulagi’s waning physical dominance and balance in the back row with England feeling the need to pick a lock at 6 to shore up the line out, only the return of Courtney Lawes from injury as captain is likely to assist, with the last of those three problems.
Looking ahead to the World Cup England have a huge stroke of fortune in that a consequence of the draw having been made in 2020 sees the four strongest sides in the competition, France, South Africa, Ireland and New Zealand all in the other side of the draw.
England fans have been looking forward to a potential quarter final against Australia or Wales but now thoughts have turned to the pool itself. Are England really that strong a favourite to win it over Argentina, their first game opponents next September? If they don’t win it, and finish second in their group the likely path beyond the Quarter Finals would be Australia then South Africa/New Zealand/France.
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The detailed results page has been updated on 1st April 2022. They can be found by clicking RESULTS
If you bet £10 per point on every recommended bet since launch you would be winning + £59,082.60 All bets have an ROI +2.90%
A £4000 bank betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth £63,082.60 a 1477% increase
The Road to Riches Weekend of 26th-27th November
Coming up this weekend
- Horse Racing Over the jumps at Bangor-on-Dee, Doncaster, Newbury and Newcastle and on the all-weather at Wolverhampton
- Football, the World Cup continues
- NFL Week Twelve.
- Rugby Union, Autumn Internationals including England v New Zealand and Wales v Australia
- Golf The Hero World Challenge on the USPGA and The South African Open and the Australian Open on the DP World Tour.
The World Cup
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Free tip
Rugby Autumn International England v South Africa Saturday 5.30pm
The Last weekend of the autumn internationals and it’s been a mixed bag for England to say the least. Now South Africa come to Twickenham, with their renowned forward power. This autumn South Africa have narrowly lost to Ireland and France followed by a comfortable win in Italy. It’s been a mixed year for the current world champions, injured fly half Handre Pollard is a big loss and they’ve been experimenting with some new combinations a year out of the World Cup, but still a big task for England to beat them here.
England were 25-6 down to the All Blacks after 70 minutes last weekend and clearly second best all over the pitch. Struggling at scrum time and the breakdown, there was little sign of creativity outside either. Then as New Zealand went to 14 men and fell off their defensive standards England threw off the shackles and scored three tries in ten minutes to draw leaving Maro Itoje to try to make sense of it all. “Why can’t we play like that for the whole game?” he wondered. It might be churlish to reply “by ignoring your coach and playing with freedom” rather than being constrained by the game plan.
In this game will that final ten minutes prove a turning point or was it just papering over the cracks? England have changed their side to combat the South African forward strength, going back to fielding a lock at blind-side flanker and effectively moving from two line out jumpers to four. The team selected doesn’t suggest an approach beyond gritting it out up front and we are likely to get a close contest in which South Africa are slightly the better team, but this is not what the outright prices suggest with England 8/15 and South Africa available at 6/4.
.South Africa are working without the unavailable Kolbe, Esterhuizen, Reinach, Wiese and Koch on Saturday and have selected two “fetchers” on the bench and no locks, presumably with an eye on dominating the breakdown
If England could refrain from actually drawing this one out of nowhere and let South Africa win a tight one this week, it would be very welcome :-)
15 points South Africa to win at 6/4 with William Hill and Coral/Ladbrokes
The NFL Cycle
The LA Rams won the Super-Bowl in February with an all-star roster built during 2019-21 via big trades (notably Stafford, Miller and Ramsey for a combined four first round draft picks) and big free agency moves. Allied to innovative coaching and with the fortune of all those players staying fit, the team turbo-charged it’s “win now” period of contention and won it all. Fastforward nine months and the team heads to Week 12 of the 2022 season with three wins. The misfortune of seeing injuries to stars Stafford and Kupp is one thing but the season has also displayed the downside of moving all-in during one particular season. That within a salary cap environment loading the roster with stars and their salaries leaves depth a problem if injuries strike. That has particularly been a problem for the offensive line this season, where such is the extent of the attrition that the offense has barely been able to function. Looking forward the team has no 2023 first round draft pick, Aaron Donald has talked retirement once and presumably will do so again if the team is not in contention and now the Rams face a rebuild
At least they have a Quarterback. It’s arguable that the Denver Broncos, who gave up the farm this off-season to acquire Russell Wilson, do not. Hampered by injury, Wilson does not appear to be capable of making second reads in this offense. The Broncos have a strong young defense but now tied to Wilson’s contract for at least three years, and with no top draft picks for the next two, it looks like a long road back for another team with three wins so far this season
At least the New Orleans Saints have four wins, but they have a parlous salary cap situation for next year, traded away their first round pick to the Eagles already and also have no franchise Quarterback. With no salary cap room and few draft picks they too are in for a long haul rebuild as the current talented roster moves past its peak with no scope to replace that talent easily.
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Betting Emporium results
The detailed results page has been updated on 1st April 2022. They can be found by clicking RESULTS
If you bet £10 per point on every recommended bet since launch you would be winning + £59,082.60 All bets have an ROI +2.90%
A £4000 bank betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth £63,082.60 a 1477% increase
The Road to Riches Weekend of 19th-20th November
Coming up this weekend
- Horse Racing Over the jumps at Ascot, Haydock and Huntington and on the all-weather at Lingfield and Wolverhampton
- Football, the start of the World Cup
- NFL Week Eleven.
- Cricket, ODI Series match between Australia and England in Sydney.
- Rugby Union, Autumn Internationals including England v New Zealand and Ireland v Australia
- Formula One, the Abu Dhabi Grand Prix, the final race of the season.
- Golf The Australian PGA and the Joburg Open on the DP World Tour.
- Tennis the Davis Cup Finals
The World Cup
The World Cup in Qatar is underway and Stattobets match plays, following his previews, are included for monthly subscribers to his service. Join for just £50pcm (cancel at any time) here
Free tip
Rugby Autumn International England v New Zealand Saturday 5.30pm
England lost to Argentina and then put over 50 points on Japan in a team with five changes the most successful of which was the re-introduction of Van Poortvliet at scrum-half which led to quicker ball to attack with. It has to be said though that Japan, a very watchable side are not that physical an opponent, and England’s challenge is to be as creative where the forward battle is even and the competition for possession at the breakdown intense.
This is the first of two important weekends for England with this game and South Africa to follow. New Zealand beat Wales comfortably a fortnight ago then Scotland last weekend 31-23 from 23-14 down. Not a vintage display with discipline problems, line out issues and and inconsistent attacking threat which is of course a rarity.
That continues an unsettled period for the All Blacks. Whilst they have won their last six matches they had lost six of their previous eight this year, a poor run that came close to costing coach Ian Foster his job, probably saved by a win in Johannesburg from 23-21 and a man down late in the game in the summer.
Against the All Blacks here they are on a short week the Scotland test being last Sunday and it is their last test of a long year. That said Foster took a minor gamble against Scotland, giving frontliners Richie Mo’unga, Aaron Smith and Tyrel Lomax a rest, and lessening the load on Shannon Frizell and Rieko Ioane. They will all have a key element of freshness this week.
Their scrum is a strength and should match England’s, and we’ll see if England have the creativity to match New Zealand outside. I rather doubt it. New Zealand are 4/6 favourites and -3 on the handicap and England available at 11/8. It looks as if it will be questionable weather and unlikely to be more than a score or two either way in those conditions. I like New Zealand by 1-10 points dutching the two prices available for 1-5 and 6-10 point wins.
8 Points New Zealand to win by 1-5 points at with 4/1 William Hill 5/1 elsewhere
8 Points New Zealand to win by 6-10 points at with 5/1 generally 11/2 Betfair Sportsbook
Template
The day England lost to Bangladesh in Adelaide in 2015 and were knocked out of that 50-over World Cup, they changed approach with aggression in selection and tactics with a template that has since taken them to the knockout stages of all five white-ball ICC events. They have won two, been runners-up once, and ended as losing semi-finalists twice. They have won this T20 World Cup without two of their first-choice bowlers in Jofra Archer and Mark Wood, and without Jonny Bairstow.
The desired team selection has consistently seen them pick hitters through the line-up, one batsman who can dig in and prevent a collapse, batsmen who can bowl both spin and pace, a leg-spinner or a mystery spinner, and some quick bowlers.
In this tournament England’s bowling line up wasn’t as exciting as Pakistan’s but it was efficient notably Rashid and player of the tournament Sam Curran who took 9 of his 13 wickets in the depth overs. Their parsimonious spells enabled the side to force mistakes without having to buy them.
This was accompanied by “horses for courses” tactics. In the Adelaide semi-final they bowled full to discourage hits to the short square boundaries, in the Melbourne final they went short to use the big square boundaries and protect from easier straight hits.
In this tournament England used Moeen Ali down the order to have an experienced batter should it get tight. Ben Stokes was used as the failsafe option to prevent collapses, such as potentially in the final even though his ideal position might be inside the powerplay. Other than that, Jos Buttler and Alex Hales went for it from ball one and weren’t concerned about preserving wickets or setting up platforms.
In recent years there have been signs that England’s approach has filtered down into their domestic T20 cricket and in due course this is going to lead to younger talent already experienced in the approach to filter into the team. The depth is already strong, and is about to get stronger
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Results = points bet 26860 profit +1132.47 ROI +4.22% Full details here
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Betting Emporium results
The detailed results page has been updated on 1st April 2022. They can be found by clicking RESULTS
If you bet £10 per point on every recommended bet since launch you would be winning + £59,082.60 All bets have an ROI +2.90%
A £4000 bank betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth £63,082.60 a 1477% increase
The Road to Riches Weekend of 12th-13th November
Coming up this weekend
- Horse Racing Over the jumps at Cheltenham, Uttoxeter and Wetherby and on the all-weather at Lingfield and Wolverhampton
- Football, the Premier League fixtures before the World Cup
- NFL Week Ten.
- Cricket, The T20 World Cup final on Sunday.
- Rugby Union, Autumn Internationals including Soctland v New Zealand and France v South Africa
- Formula One, the Brazilian Grand Prix
- Golf The RSM Classic on the USPGA and the DP World Tour Championship.
- Tennis the ATP World Tour Finals
Free tip
Rugby Autumn International France v South Africa 8pm Saturday
Two of the favourites for the 2023 World Cup in France meet in this game, France currently 5/2 and South Africa 6/1 to repeat their victory in Japan in 2019.
The two countries are on the same side of the World Cup draw too, which accounts for the juicy looking 6/1 available on South Africa who may have to meet France in the Quarter finals, depending on the outcomes of the France/New Zealand and South Africa/Ireland pool games, they themselves the result of World Cup pools being finalised a full three years before the tournament when world rankings are very different to what they are now.
France began their Autumn season with a thrilling 30-29 win over Australia whilst South Africa lost by three points in Ireland, not quite sharp enough in ten minutes after half time when they conceded two tries. This should also be a very close game.
France are best priced 4/7 and South Africa 19/10 in a place and +6 in a place and generally +5 on the handicap.
France are unchanged, going for a 12th win a row, South Africa have made five changes with Le Roux and de Klerk back. To cover +5/+6 they are going to need to goal-kick better than last weekend in the absence of the currently injured Handre Pollard. Willemse and Kolbe shared the duties and it wasn’t a great success. Lets hope Willemse is more on song for the sake of the +6
11 points South Africa +6 points 10/11 Bet365 and +5 points generally
Changes
A year out from the 2023 England suffered a disappointing start to their Autumn International series losing 30-29 to Argentina last weekend. Yes they will have been rusty and it was a wet day but the match highlighted some familiar failings as much in selection and tactics as anything.
At a top level perspective Eddie Jones has selected 67 players for England and under 50 have more than 10 caps, the constant chopping and changing doesn’t breed continuity (even accepting that these days the incidence of injuries is higher than in past generations) but playing players out of position, notably here Maro Itoje, forced to 6 in the absence of Courtney Lawes doesn’t help either.
Then there is the Ben Youngs conundrum. A wonderful player with over 100 caps but fast service from the base of the scrum/breakdown is not his strength. Behind him the young trio of Jack van Poortvliet, Alex Mitchell and Raffi Quirke are all dynamic and look ready. Why, a year out until the World Cup, are they not getting extensive starting experience now? Were one of them to settle into the team, the effects on getting quick ball to the backs would be advantageous, assuming there is enough of an attacking game plan to utilise that quick ball (not a given!).
On the opening day of the World Cup England play Argentina in their first pool match. Whilst it would be a stretch to say that this result has any bearing on that game 12 months away it nevertheless puts more pressure on the team in the remaining Autumn games ahead of the Six nations, starting with Japan this weekend and then New Zealand and South Africa before the end of the month. Much to prove, and a very stubborn head coach in the way of much change!.
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Results = points bet 26860 profit +1132.47 ROI +4.22% Full details here
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Betting Emporium results
The detailed results page has been updated on 1st April 2022. They can be found by clicking RESULTS
If you bet £10 per point on every recommended bet since launch you would be winning + £59,082.60 All bets have an ROI +2.90%
A £4000 bank betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth £63,082.60 a 1477% increase
The Road to Riches Weekend of 5th-6th November
Coming up this weekend
- Horse Racing On the flat at Doncaster. Over the jumps at Aintree, Kelso and Wincanton and on the all-weather at Chelmsford City
- Football, Premier League fixtures include Chelsea v Arsenal and Tottenham v Liverpool
- NFL Week Nine.
- Cricket, The T20 World Cup continues in Australia.
- Rugby Union, Autumn Internationals including Wales v New Zealand and Ireland v South Africa
- Golf The Houston Open on the USPGA and the Nedbank Golf Challenge on the DP World Tour.
- Tennis the NextGen ATP Finals in Milan
Free tip
Rugby Autumn International Ireland v South Africa 5.30pm Saturday
This has been an excellent year for Ireland team highlighted by the superb series win in New Zealand but the difficulty posed by France in Paris in the Spring when the hosts won 30-24 during the Six Nations is a good indication of the kind of problems South Africa will pose this weekend. Given that South Africa will be in the same pool as Ireland in France next year, and that the French are potential quarter-final opponents, finding ways to live with the game's biggest teams is vital.
The vulnerability of Irish sides to physically superior opponents has been repeatedly exposed in provincial matches, with Leinster's European disappointments over the past four seasons all sourced in power mis-matches. England have twice frustrated Ireland sides in this manner, too and earlier in the year led for a long time at Twickenham and their 14 men only wilted in the final quarter.
If the French attacking game has more ambition than the one South Africa will roll out, the basic principles of the two teams are the same, built on a physical power that few rivals can match. Ireland are the world's No1-ranked team but they and the All Blacks don't rely on pack power as South Africa, France, and England do.
Ireland, on their ascent to the top of the rankings, haven’t played the South Africans since 2017 and this match represents a clash of styles with Ireland superb at the breakdown and South Africa relying on raw power.
Centre Lukhanyo Am and fly-half Handre Pollard are a key to the success of South Africa, and their absences have been keenly felt, with depth behind them not at the same level.
South Africa don't look particularly fearsome at present, but their scrum and driving maul remain extremely difficult to contain.
Prices for this game, which should be extremely close, are very informed by Ireland’s recent results. Ireland are 4/7 South Africa 6/4+ and up to +5 on the handicap.
South Africa finished second in the Rugby Championship winning 4 out of their 6 matches and splitting the series with New Zealand and Australia. That 6/4 price opened my eyes when I saw it for a street-wise, experienced and powerful team that probably will be favourites to beat Ireland on neutral turf in the upcoming World Cup.
12 points South Africa to win at 7/4 BetfairSportsbook and Paddy Power, 17/10 with William Hill, 8/5 Ladbrokes/Coral and Bet365, 13/8 Betfred and BetVictor
Rain or Shine
So far the 2022 Cricket World Cup has seen four matches in the Super 12 stages finish without a result. Of the five games so far in Melbourne, only one has finished as planned, with one other between England and Ireland reaching a result despite being cut short by rain.
The ICC as organisers face a perennial problem in World Cup formats which dates back to the 50-over World Cup of 2007. When India and Pakistan were both knocked out their respective four-team groups in the preliminary stages, it meant they had played only three times and big television audiences were lost. Over the years since then one day competitions have become more bloated. In 2019, each team played nine times before the knockout games began. The good news is that it gave more top level cricket to emerging nations, the bad its tough to maintain interest over longer torunaments.
As organisers the ICC has to help grow the game but has to do so in a way that financially benefits Australia, England and India, the three most influential nations in the sport. You need a tense competitive format that makes sure that the most lucrative teams play lots of games before any risk of being eliminated. Yet October is one of Australia’s wettest months and the ICC are staging the World Cup now as the hosts are touring India in February. So the ever more crowded global schedule is a factor here too.
Then the organisers have to contend with the high variance of the T20 format on top of the weather variance. They wouldn’t have foreseen Zimbabwe defending 4 off the last 4 balls against Pakistan or Ireland beating England in a rain adjusted game. Those results may not improve the finances of the global organisation, depending who ultimately makes it through to the knockout stages.
StattoBets Dave Monthly Subscription - Soccer - Tennis - Darts
Stattobets write ups, analysis and bets are available to monthly subscribers.
Results = points bet 26860 profit +1132.47 ROI +4.22% Full details here
Monthly subs are £50 a month and can be cancelled at any time. You can sign up here.
Betting Emporium results
The detailed results page has been updated on 1st April 2022. They can be found by clicking RESULTS
If you bet £10 per point on every recommended bet since launch you would be winning + £59,082.60 All bets have an ROI +2.90%
A £4000 bank betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth £63,082.60 a 1477% increase
