Weekly Articles "Road to Riches" by Rich 'Tighty' Prew
The Road to Riches: Weekend of 6th-7th March
Coming up this weekend
- Football, Premier League fixtures include Manchester City v Manchester United
- Horse Racing, Over the jumps at Doncaster, Kelso and Newbury and on the all-weather at Lingfield and Southwell
- Cricket, the India-England test series continues in Ahmedabad
- Golf, the Arnold Palmer Invitational at Bay Hill on the USPGA.
- Tennis, ATP Opens in Chile, Marseille and Qatar
Cheltenham 16th-19th March 2021
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Free tip
Millwall v Blackburn, Championship, Saturday 3pm
Gary Rowett’s Millwall sixth in 10th place in the Championship table after two thirds of the season ans have been draw specialists, with 16 draws in 31 games. Until Saturday’s loss at Barnsley they were eight games unbeaten, though five of those results were draws. They bounced back to beat Preston 2-1 on Tuesday night.
They aren’t a prolific side, top scorer Jed Wallace has 7 goals and they’ve only scored 34 overall, but they are solid defensively, only conceding 31 goals or a goal a game on average
Tony Mowbray’s Blackburn side now sit 15th after their 1-0 loss at Reading on Tuesday night. They are right at the bottom of the form table with one point in their last six games, a run that has seen speculation about the manager’s future. Blackburn can score goals, 46 so far this season with (probably) Premier League bound Adam Armstrong having scored 20 of them. Liverpool loanee Harvey Elliott and newly returned from injury Bradley Dack occupy the other attacking positions and five goals scored in the last six games is a poor return for that sort of attacking talent.
There might not be many goals in this game, but given the relative form of the sides 6/4 looks an interesting price
12 points Millwall to beat Blackburn at 6/4 with Betfred and William Hill
Revision
The EPCR have confirmed that the Champions Cup Rugby tournament will go to straight to a round of 16 after tournament organisers announced the revised format for the knockout phase.
The last two rounds of the group stages were cancelled when the French government prevented its Top 14 teams from taking part in cross-border competition due to COVID fears.
The round of 16 will be staged on the weekend of April 2nd-4th with the quarter-finals, semi-finals and final in Marseille taking place as scheduled. A draw made up of the eight highest-ranked clubs in Pool A and Pool B at the time of last month’s suspension will be held on March 9 to determine the line-up for the next two rounds.
Teams from the same league cannot be drawn against one another and those sides that won both pool games on the field (Wasps, Racing 92, Leinster, Bordeaux-Begles and Munster) are guaranteed a home match in the round of 16.
For the Challenge Cup, the eight highest-ranked clubs from the preliminary stage at the time of the suspension and the eight clubs which have not qualified for the knockout stage of the Champions Cup will compete in a round of 16.
The knockout stage qualifiers are:
Racing 92, Leinster Rugby, Wasps, Bordeaux-Begles, Munster Rugby, Lyon, Toulouse, La Rochelle, Scarlets, ASM Clermont Auvergne, Bristol Bears, Exeter Chiefs, Edinburgh Rugby, Gloucester Rugby, RC Toulon, Sale Sharks.
The schedule is as follows:
Round of 16 April 2-4t
Quarter-finals: April 9-11
Semi-finals: April 30, May 1-2
Final: May 22
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The Road to Riches: Weekend of 27th-28th February
Coming up this weekend
- Football, Premier League fixtures include Chelsea v Manchester United
- Horse Racing, Over the jumps at Kempton and Newcastle and on the all-weather at Chelmsford City and Lingfield
- Rugby Union, the latest round of Six Nations matches
- Cricket, the India-England test series continues in Ahmedabad
- Golf, the WGC at the Concession Club in Florida and the Puerto Rico on the USPGA.
- Tennis, ATP Opens in Lyon, Rotterdam, Qatar and Buenos Aires
Cheltenham 16th-19th March 202
We have added our Cheltenham four-day package to our homepage. Get all of Neil’s write-ups together with the details of all our bets. The full package is available for £199 here
Free tip
Six Nations Championship Wales v England Saturday 4.45pm
Wales lead the Championship with two wins from two. Of course they have been slightly fortunate with opponents in both games having a red card in the first half and Wales pulled away from Ireland and Scotland in the last quarter of matches when the extra main told.
In the Autumn Nations Cup, when Wales were at their lowest ebb, Wales lost to England 24-13 at Llanelli and didn’t create much. Now, with some improved form, senior players back and England’s form at the start of the Championship disappointing they are only 7 point underdogs here.
For Wales, whilst the suspicion remains that some of the major players are moving past their best, for now the team certainly looks stronger for the return of the senior players from injury. Only 6 of the team from the autumn start this match, important for a country that doesn’t have the depth of talent pool of France and England. Whilst Wales have yet to embark on the wholesale rebuilding that looks inevitable ahead of the next Rugby World Cup they have at least unearthed what appears to be a major talent in the winger Louis Rees-Zammit who has shown his finishing in both games so far.
England of course were dreadful against Scotland, and performed no better than expected against Italy with key players such as Farrell and Vunipola looking well below par. They should have the edge here in the tight five with Vunipola, George and Sinckler back and the defence remains pre-eminent. However despite these strengths there has been no real sign of attacking brilliance, both in general and especially against Scotland and Italy.
This should be tight, but I would expect England to have the edge and win by a score or two.
10 points England to win by 1-12 points at 6/4 with Betfred and BetfairSportsbook, 7/5 PaddyPower
Watt’s the matter
J J. Watt, the three-time NFL Defensive Player of the Year, is leaving the Houston Texans after 10 seasons wanting a chance to compete for the Super. The Texans, a team in transition (or turmoil) with a new general manager, a new coach and a disgruntled quarterback, agreed to let the face of the franchise for the last decade become an unrestricted free agent and acknowledged the reality of how deeply the veteran defensive end still wants to play for a championship contender instead of being in a rebuilding situation.
So where will he play in 2021? US betting markets have the Steelers as favourites ahead of the The Packers and Buccaneers, the Ravens and the Bears. However you could make the case for the Bills, Browns and Titans too, amongst others
While the Steelers make sense, given the presence of his brothers, T.J. and Derek in the roster, Pittsburgh has a serious salary cap problem in 2021 and they look a bad favourite to me. Watt’s likely objective to get a Super Bowl ring will be harder to achieve in Pittsburgh than in places like Green Bay (in his home state of Wisconsin) or Tampa Bay.
Wherever Watt goes, he’ll bring not just ability but leadership and buzz. Although he’s far closer to the end than the beginning of his career and will therefore most likely not be an every down player, Watt can sell tickets and jerseys and create a bond with a city, as he did in Houston..
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The Road to Riches: Weekend of 20th-21st February
Coming up this weekend
- Football, Premier League fixtures include Liverpool v Everton and Arsenal v Manchester City
- Horse Racing, Over the jumps at Ascot, Haydock and Wincanton and on the all-weather at Lingfield and Newcastle
- Cricket, the India-England test series continues in Ahmedabad next week
- Golf, the Genesis Invitational at the Riviera Country Club on the USPGA.
- Tennis, ATP Opens in Cordoba and Montpellier
Cheltenham 16th-19th March 2021
We have added our Cheltenham four-day package to our homepage. Get all of Neil’s write-ups together with the details of all our bets. The full package is available for £199 here
Free tip
India v England 3rd Test, Ahmedabad starting Wednesday 24th February
With the series tied at 1-1 India and England move to Ahmedabad for the 3rd and 4th tests, the third test beginning next Wednesday. This is Ahmedabad’s 1st test since 2012 in a huge ground where the pitch used to play low and slow. This however has an added variable as it’s a Day/Night Pink ball test starting at 2pm local with around half the play either at twilight or under lights.
In one previous pink ball Test in India, albeit in Kolkota, no India spinners took a wicket in the win over Bangladesh. Typically the world over pink ball tests produce seam friendly conditions for at least part of the play and therefore here the pre-eminent skills of James Anderson and Jasprit Bumrah for their respective sides should be in play with both having been rested for the second test match in Chennai with an eye specifically on the Pink ball test
Of course we should still expect a toss bias in terms of the team batting first, but this far ahead of the game we can possibly expect a fresh pitch unlike the sandy turner produced for India to get back into the series in Chennai. Irrespective of that England were out-played anyway.
I am writing ahead of most sub-market prices being posted for India and England top bowler. The case for both Anderson and Bumrah in those respective markets is pretty clear: Anderson is still England’s best seamer at the age of 28 and his 3-17 in the second innings of the first test on a pitch offering him no help was a match-winning effort. Bumrah took three England wickets in the first innings of the same match. Both performances notable because over the course of the match spinners took 23 of the wickets to fall.
Betfred are up early and have Leach favourite over Anderson for Top England bowler. This looks odd for a first innings before the pitch wears and of course with the pink ball and probably not conditions favouring the spinners early on
10 points James Anderson Top England bowler at 11/4 with Betfred
Floodgates
The NFL lags behind other major US sports in terms of huge player trades. First round draft picks do get swapped in the NFL, but it’s been rare to see two players of significance traded in the same deal.
One of the big reasons why is the concept of dead salary cap NFL contracts often have big bonuses and clauses that made it punitive to the team to trade away a marquee player, especially early in the contract.
The Rams broke the norm by dealing Jared Goff to the Lions for Matthew Stafford in a swap of starting quarterbacks. The Rams included two future first-round picks and a third-round pick to provide Lions value to take on Goff’s contract and ease the impact on Stafford’s dead cap that Detroit carries forward. For the Rams, a side with a superb roster but probably without a Quarterback that could help them win a Superbowl, it’s a win now move. For the Lions, the start of a long term rebuild.
Now it seems more trades will follow. The Philadelphia Eagles are actively trying to trade Carson Wentz, and in doing so will incur a $33.8 dead salary cap hit for 2021, the biggest in NFL history and over double what the Lions are paying to not have Matthew Stafford playing QB in Detroit this year.
Teams have never shown a willingness to make that kind of move before. What the Rams did in sending Goff to Detroit may have opened the floodgates to other big moves.If the Houston Texans ever decide to acquiesce to Deshaun Watson’s desire to leave the team, they’ll also have to carry some major dead cap money. The same is true of the rumours out there about the Raiders and Derek Carr or the 49ers and Jimmy Garoppolo and even Russell Wilson of the Seahawks is agitating. But the Lions proved willing to take on the huge contract for a hefty sum of draft capital. The unusual move seems to be a catalyst for other moves now..
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If you bet £10 per point on every recommended bet since launch you would be winning + £42,703.40 All bets have an ROI +2.39%
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The Road to Riches: Weekend of 13-14th February
Coming up this weekend
- Football, Premier League fixtures include Manchester City v Tottenham and Leicester City v Liverpool
- Rugby Union, the Six Nations Championship continues
- Horse Racing, Over the jumps at Newbury and Warwick and on the all-weather at Lingfield and Wolverhampton
- Cricket, the India-England test series continues in Chennai
- Golf, the Pebble Beach Pro-Am on the USPGA.
- Tennis, the Australian Open continues
Cheltenham 16th-19th March
We have added our Cheltenham four day package to our homepage. Get all of Neil’s write-ups together with the details of all our bets. The full package is available for £199 here
We are very pleased to announce details of our Cheltenham Festival Preview Zoom Dinner Sat March 13th 2021
Free tip
The 2021 Six Nations Scotland v Wales Saturday 4pm
In their famous victory last weekend Scotland dominated England, who played like a team of complete strangers and a number of major players, mostly from Saracens, appeared to be short of match practice.
Whether we are talking about line-out, scrum or the breakdown Scotland won the battles. Scotland were more disciplined, more physical and won the aerial battle too. England made zero clean breaks, an incredible statistic over 80 minutes.
I began wanting to back Scotland about two years ago, which was too early given a number of false dawns since but the signs were there whether from the brilliance of Hogg and Russell to the development of a back row to compete at break-downs. What is new in the last nine months is the maturing of a front five that gives the whole side a solidity, particularly in the scrum, that it previously lacked.
They have now won four games in a row in the Six Nations. In the autumn they won in Wales for the first time in 18 years. On Saturday they won at Twickenham for the first time in 38 years. Although this year they have to go to Paris in this Championship they do have three of their remaining four games at home and you have to say they are Championship contenders.
Wales entered the Championship on a sustained run of poor fun and huffed and puffed to beat a 14 man Ireland side, a man up for nearly 65 minutes. There really wasn’t much sign of improvement in their attacking threat until the extra man paid in the last quarter of the game. A number of their players also haven’t had much rugby and they suffered a number of injuries in the game to Lydiate, Amos and Johnny and Tomas Williams all of whom missing this game. North and Navidi then pulled out during the week. Scotland have had to make three changes too.
A fundamental problem is a number of the stalwart Welsh players are a year or two past their best and a more thorough rebuilding is probably due. At least in Louis Rees-Zammit the winger they have a real star emerging, if they can be creative enough to get him enough ball
Outright prices are Scotland 4/9 Wales 2/1 with Scotland -5.5 the handicap quote, up from -4 on the team news. With the exception of Italy, defences in this championship are really well marshalled. I expect Scotland to win by 1-2 scores
12 points Scotland to win by 1-12 points at 6/4 with Betfred 2.46 on the Betfair Exchange
Squeeze
As the Six nations moves into it’s second weekend but behind closed doors, rugby is dealing with the dual problems of COVID and the legal actions taken by former players diagnosed with early-onset dementia. Meanwhile the British Lions debate their options for the summer tour of South Africa ranging from going ahead as planned, postponing, cancelling, moving the tour to UK venues or even accepting Australia’s offer to host.
Of those options postponing the tour until next year was shot down by England and Ireland who are due to visit Australia and New Zealand in 2021 both tours with lucrative fees attached. The alternative to cancelling the Lions tour is to stage the tour in Britain in the hope that by July spectators would be allowed in grounds thanks to the vaccine roll-out in the UK. While the prospect of the Lions playing at home has not proved popular with supporters it is estimated it would earn the Lions and South Africa up to 50% more. At a time of budget cuts being made by unions and clubs throughout the world, that is attractive to decision-makers.
Meanwhile the impact of Covid continues. Domestic unions and clubs cut wages and made non-playing staff redundant in 2020. The Autumn Nations Cup, a tournament created after the tours to Europe by the major southern-hemisphere unions were called off, was set up to keep the grassroots game alive in Europe. Without the income from Amazon for that tournament, all the unions would have had to make even greater cuts to their spending on the grassroots. However it was devalued by the Top 14 clubs in France, who threatened court action to prevent their players being released for all of France’s six matches in the campaign. They settled with the French Rugby Federation so that no player made more than three appearances
Meanwhile the RFU has hugely reduced its investment in the grassroots after posting substantial losses in the last year. Those cuts and the lack of rugby for 11 months threatens amateur and schools participation as does the concussion lawsuit.
Given these myriad of factors playing out simultaneously and the ever conflicting demands of the clubs and the International federations there still remains little sign of the various stakeholders aligning the sport and maximise its potential.
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Betting Emporium results
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If you bet £10 per point on every recommended bet since launch you would be winning + £42,703.40 All bets have an ROI +2.39%
A £4000 bank betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth £46,703.40 a 1068% increase
The Road to Riches: Weekend of 6th-7th February
Coming up this weekend
- Football, Premier League fixtures include Liverpool v Manchester City
- NFL, Super-bowl LV in Tampa Bay on Sunday night
- Rugby Union, the start of the Six Nations Championship
- Horse Racing, Over the jumps at Musselburgh, Sandown and Wetherby and Doncaster and on the all-weather at Kempton and Lingfield
- Cricket, the start of the India-England test series in Chennai and The Big Bash League Final
- Golf, the Waste Management Phoenix Open at Scottsdale on the USPGA and the Saudi International on the European tour
Free tip
The 2021 Six Nations
Only finally confirmed as taking place as late as this week, this weekend sees the start of the 2021 Six Nations. The teams go into the tournament with the rarity of recent form against each other to look at after the Autumn Nations Cup won by England. England beat France to the Six Nations title last year and go into the 2021 renewal as sort as Evens to win again ahead of France at 5/2 and Ireland at 7/2. In the continuing COVID environment there could be issues ahead with scheduling and team selection for all the sides.
England go into the Six Nations with a long injury list in the forwards including Underhill, Mako Vunipola and Launchbury, also with Sinckler suspended and Marler opting out. What England do have though is unparalleled strength in depth though were the absences to include the likes of Itoje, Owen Farrell or Youngs at any point, prospects become much murkier. They might start slow, a number of key players haven't had any rugby in a month, and they are not going to eviscerate sides but are very tough to beat.
France of course now have a great captain, masses of young talent and particularly on the defensive side of the ball, world class coaching with Sean Edwards. They do though have three of their five games away from home this Championship, notably including at Twickenham
Ireland were top of the table going into the final round of games in 2020 and are on the cusp on a transition from a range of veteran players towards a new generation but for now will be at least a difficult “out” for all their opponents. In terms of their prospects for this title, they have only two games at home, but those games are against England and France.
Wales have only won 3 of their last ten games under Pivac, struggling to develop an attacking style to unlock teams, a problems for several years.
Scotland continue to develop, have Russell and Hogg back in tandem and an improving forward pack. They though have to go to Twickenham and Paris. Winning the three home games is a decent possibility.
For Italy, one win would be progress but continues to look unlikely no matter the young talent coming through as the rest of the teams improve alongside them
It would be quite rare for me to back England for a Grand Slam, for which the firms have them 2-1 + going into the Championship. Three of their first four games are at home: Scotland, Italy, and France, with one away trip to Wales. There is every chance that they travel to Dublin for the final round unbeaten. Of course that will not be easy, with the hosts potentially having the opportunity to deny England the slam but with the brilliant Irish crowd almost certain to still be absent (at least in large numbers) I would have England to win based on their brilliant defence in what we could expect to be an attritional game .
15 points England to win the Grand Slam at 3.7 on the Betfair Exchange 12/5 with William Hill, 11/5 Betfred
A star trade beckons
The rarity of a blockbuster NFL trade is approaching in the off-season after the Houston Texans quarterback DeShaun Watson, unhappy with the team ownership and about being left out of the team’s messy hiring process for a new head coach despite promises to the contrary, has requested a trade
A three-time pro-bowler, in his fourth NFL season just finished on a bad four win team, Watson won the NFL passing yards title. A genuine franchise quarterback, only 25 years old and amazing that Houston allowed relations to deteriorate to this point and it sets up what will be a hot trade market.
Trading Watson would bring the Texans a big haul of draft picks (for a side that has spent several years jettisoning them to acquire veteran talent) but unless the trade also secured a young franchise quarterback in return they could spend the highest pick acquired on a successor to Watson.
Undoubtedly if forced to trade him the Texans would like to trade Watson into the NFC, out of their conference but a significant factor in negotiations will be that Watson has a no trade clause in his contract. He can veto any destination he does not want to get traded to.
The list of candidate teams that will be interested will be long. For most the Jets and Dolphins will be at the top of the list
The Jets acquired first-round picks in each of the next two drafts when they traded safety Jamal Adams to the Seattle Seahawks. They pick at No. 2 overall this year and own two first-rounders (their own and Seattle’s) in 2021 and 2022. With a new Head coach and Sam Darnold approaching the end of his rookie deal, they have both the draft assets and motivation to be in the hunt here, plus they operate in a huge media market for Watson’s commercial prospects.
The Dolphins currently own two first-round picks in the 2021 NFL Draft, including the No. 3 overall selection they acquired from the Texans in the Laremy Tunsil trade, and four total picks in the top 50. They also have quarterback Tua Tagovailoa, the fifth overall pick last year, who could be added to a potential Watson package. Their roster is ready to win now being quite late in their rebuilding process, apart from some offensive skill positions such as wide receiver.
Any viable trade proposal for Watson likely would need to include several first-round draft choices. The Dolphins and Jets can fulfill those requirements while also offering Houston a coveted top-three pick.
Amongst other teams candidates include:
The San Francisco 49ers who have Jimmy Garoppolo under contract for 2021, who could be offered as part of the trade. The new Houston General manager drafted Garoppolo as part of the Patriots front office in 2014.
Washington Football Team started four different quarterbacks this season including three over the final three games, with Taylor Heinicke taking the field for a playoff game after joining the roster last month. There is no obvious starting quarterback on the roster. Washington’s defense has evolved into one of the league’s top units but they might not have the draft capital to compete in the auction without throwing in some starter quality players.
In reality there is little chance that the Texans would trade to a team in their own division but the Indianapolis Colts would be an obvious candidate otherwise. They’re in the market for their quarterback of the future. They’ve got young talent on offense in running back Jonathan Taylor and receiver Michael Pittman Jr. They’ve got one of the best offensive lines in football. And they own the fourth-most salary cap space heading into this offseason, so they have the resources needed to absorb Watson’s contract. A potential Watson-to-Indianapolis trade would immediately make the Colts a Super Bowl contender.
Finally the Denver Broncos have a new general manager, a top ten draft pick this year and good amount of salary cap space available and a young quarterback in Drew Lock where the jury is still out. Most attractive to Watson may be the young trio of wide receivers, Courtland Sutton, Jerry Jeudy and KJ Hamler, and young tight end Noah Fant. Perhaps the Broncos aren’t the “win now in a big market” opportunity that Watson seeks.
StattoBets Dave Monthly Subscription
Stattobets write ups, analysis and bets are available to monthly subscribers.
Monthly subs are £50 a month and can be cancelled at any time. You can sign up here.
Betting Emporium results
The detailed results page has been updated as have the spreadsheets with the detailed bets. They can be found by clicking RESULTS
If you bet £10 per point on every recommended bet since launch you would be winning + £42,703.40 All bets have an ROI +2.39%
A £4000 bank betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth £46,703.40 a 1068% increase
