Weekly Articles "Road to Riches" by Rich 'Tighty' Prew
The Road to Riches Weekend of 8th-9th October
Coming up this weekend
- Horse Racing On the flat at Newmarket and York. Over the jumps at Chepstow, Hexham and Ffos Las and on the all-weather at Chelmsford.
- Football, Premier League fixtures include Arsenal v Liverpool
- NFL the new season continues with Week Five.
- Cricket, England’s T20 World Cup warm ups begin in Australia.
- Formula One, the Japanese Grand Prix
- Golf The ZOZO Championship on the USPGA and the Andulacia Masters on the DP World Tour
- Tennis ATP Florence and Gijon Opens
Free tip
English Premiership Rugby Bath v Gloucester Saturday 3pm
Bath lost 47-38 at London Irish last weekend their 4th Premiership loss on the spin in this new season, this following a dreadful season last seasn in which they finished bottom of the table (with fortuitously no relegation with only five wins from 24 games.
Unsurprisingly that led to a coaching overhaul and in came Johan Van Graan from Munster complete with a new team and new defensive system.
It’s been a difficult start though as the side has conceded 154 points in the four losses. The side is both young and unsettled with major injuries to internationals such as Underhill, Ewels and Obano plus last season’s top try scorer Muir, Coetzee, Spencer and de Glanville. Van Graan has bemoaned the big trauma injuries suffered by his squad and last weekend two more players went down, both with dislocated shoulders.
This week they’ve brought in four players on loan from suspended Worcester including Ted Hill and Ollie Lawrence and they are a side capable of very attractive rugby but it’s clearly going to take a while to translate that into results faced with the current headwinds.
Gloucester last season won 13 Premiership games and finished 5th much improved from the 11th place in coach George Skivington’s first season. They have only played two league games this season, beating Wasps 27-21 and losing right at the death 41-39 to Saracens
Gloucester are six or seven point favourites depending where you look and I expect them to cover
11 points Gloucester -6 points at 10/11 generally
Buzzkill
Wasps reportedly need to find £2 million in the next two weeks working days or the club will go into administration. HMRC issued the club with a winding-up order that prompted the club to file its intention with the High Court to appoint an administrator. £2m is needed to pay a tax bill.
In addition there is a problem surrounding £35m of bonds that the West Midlands club took out after purchasing the Coventry Building Society (then Ricoh) Arena in 2014. Bondholders should have been repaid in May, after they stumped up the cash to allow Wasps to raise money for their business and pay off debts.
The problem, however, is that those investors have not yet been repaid and, theoretically, could call the bond in at any time.
A Wasps statement said that filing a notice of intention to appoint administrators "does not mean the business is in administration but provides a crucial period of grace to continue negotiations with a number of interested parties to secure the long-term future of the group".
It would seem, therefore, that Wasps require time. Regardless, the threat of administration must be looming. It was also reported that Wasps has interest from overseas buyers, while chief operating officer Chris Holland has also been 'linked with a bid' to buy the club.
Mr Holland's company owns Wasps' training ground that was officially opened last summer in Henley-in-Arden
Following Worcester being placed into administration, there is more uncertainty for top Professional rugby in England
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The Road to Riches Weekend of 1st-2nd October
Coming up this weekend
- Horse Racing On the flat at Ascot, Newmarket and Redcar. Over the jumps at Fontwell and on the all-weather at Wolverhampton.
- Football, Premier League fixtures include the Manchester and North London derbies
- Rugby Union, the Rugby Championship, New Zealand v Australia and South Africa v Argentina
- NFL the new season continues with Week Four.
- Cricket, England’s tour of Pakistan continues.
- Formula One, the Singapore Grand Prix
- Golf The Shriners Children’s Open on the USPGA and the Open de Espana on the DP World Tour
- Tennis ATP Astana and Japan Opens
Free tip
English Premiership Rugby Saracens v Leicester Tigers Saturday 3pm
A repeat of the Play-off Final last year between the two sides that finished first and second in the league table, a game Leicester won 15-12 with brilliant defence.
This season, their second back in the top flight after their enforced relegation, Saracens have played 2 won 2 and last weekend beat Gloucester 41-39 away with two tries in the last five minutes and a Farrell kick to win it at the death.
Leicester meanwhile have won two of their three games, with only a narrow loss at Exeter falling behind right at the end before beating Newcastle and Northampton comfortably.
Saracens are 1-2 outright here and 6 point favourites on the handicap. I see this being very close. Whilst Leicester are missing Pollard and Watson and probably not quite the side they were last season the core of their side is a really competitive pack and excellent coaching has their tactics in defence and the kicking game usually spot on. The youngsters outside, notably the likes of Freddie Steward who scored a hat trick against Northampton, provide the firepower when games open up.
I expect this to be a one score game either way.
15 points Leicester +6 points at Evens Bet365 and 10/11 generally
Tension
A new-look County Championship comprising a first division of six teams, trials of the Kookaburra red ball, and a reduction of T20 Blast fixtures from 14 to 10, are among the 17 recommendations made in the men's High-Performance Review published by the ECB.
The review was commissioned in the wake of England's crushing defeat in the Ashes in January and was led by Andrew Strauss.
The report's recommendations are split into four categories, covering the specifics of high-performance, the need to equip players to compete in all conditions around the world, the creation of a domestic structure that is "best for counties, players, fans, and England men's team", and the overarching need to inspire future generations to take up the game.
The headlines under the proposals are
- A ten round County Championship (currently fourteen)
- A short 50 over competition in early season
- A shorter T20 Blast with 5 home matches each (currently eight)
- An unchanged Hundred competition through each August
This is going to be a tough sell, to say the least! Fifteen of the 17 recommendations can be voted on by the ECB board and implemented without recourse to the counties. The remaining two, however, relating to the T20 Blast and the restructuring of the County Championship, will require a two-thirds majority in a ballot of the 18 counties, and will almost certainly be met with opposition from members who face a reduction in first-class fixtures, and executives who rely on revenues from home Blast matches. The review envisages a reduction in a county's days of home cricket from 39 to as low as 26, a 33% fall.
15 counties are member owned and very likely to vote against the proposals. The review would condemn 10-12 Counties to a “feeder” club future with less fixtures. To win 12 votes, 6 would have to vote for their own demise.
Of course there are no easy answers, as the advent of the Hundred and a media deal to which the ECB are committed and the Hundred’s place in the calendar unalterable for now has put much strain on the schedule. Short of abandoning a 50 over competition, or merging counties, the tension between “high performance” and the County game is set to remain unresolved
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The Road to Riches: Weekend of 24th-25th September
Coming up this weekend
- Horse Racing On the flat at Chester, Haydock, Newmarket and Ripon. Over the jumps at Market Rasen and on the all weather at Chelmsford City.
- Football, UEFA Nations League matches including Italy v England
- Rugby Union, the Rugby Championship, New Zealand v Australia and South Africa v Argentina
- NFL the new season continues with Week Three
- Cricket, England’s tour of Pakistan begins
- Golf The Sanderson Farms Championship on the USPGA and the Alfred Dunhill Links at Carnoustie on the DP World Tour
- Tennis ATP Laver Cup at the O2 Arena
Free tip
English Premiership Rugby: Bristol v London Irish 3pm Saturday
Bristol are second in the early Premiership table, a point off leaders Sale with two wins out of two, first 31-29 at home to Bath and then at Wasps 23-8, the first signs of a tightening up of a defence which saw them concede 40 or more points in seven matches last season. Last season the side was very inconsistent, finishing 10th with 16 losses, following two seasons with back to back top four finishes.
This season, having recruited well notably the Leicester captain Ellis Genge a top eight finish and a return to European rugby seems likely.
London Irish finished 8th last season to clinch a European spot and picked up just one win from their final six matches to ruin their chances of the top four and the play-offs where they eventually missed out by 12 points.
This season they scored 45 points at home to the struggling Worcester warriors in week one then lost 22-38 at Northampton last weekend. With the talented young trio of Henry Arundell, Will Joseph, Ollie Hassell-Collins all sure to improve this season they will be looking to improve on 8th place.
Bristol are 4/11 favourites for this game at home, which is reasonable enough on current form and improved prospects for the season and -7 on the handicap, which I would expect them to cover in part because of their improved defence
11 points Bristol Bears -7 at 10/11 generally
Stonewall Jackson
The moment DeShaun Watson signed his five-year, fully guaranteed $230 million contract with the Browns earlier this year, Lamar Jackson’s negotiation with the Baltimore Ravens became much more difficult and, as it turned out, impossible. Watson’s was the first NFL mega contract to be fully guaranteed and it gave a lot of potential leverage to all the top-level quarterbacks and teed it up for players to change the way NFL teams do business, to change the leverage equation from team to player.
Subsequent contract extensions for Derek Carr, Kyler Murray and Russell Wilson reverted to the traditional team-friendly structure for top quarterbacks: two or three years guaranteed and the rest at the behest of the team. Jackson subsequently turned down $133m over 5 years and will play out this year on his $23 million option-year salary and “bet on himself”. His problem is the management-tilted NFL Collective Bargaining agreement gives teams like the Ravens the right to apply the franchise tag at the end of a contract, taking players like Jackson off the market completely, as applying a franchise tag locks them into their team for another year.
Come January, the Ravens will have had their starting quarterback, under contract on a fixed and reasonable rate for five years. And they have the right to have him under contract, albeit at a higher rate, next year and for two years after that. That would amount to eight years before Jackson could even sniff free agency.
Jackson is giving hope to all future elite players that the Watson contract was not an aberration but rather a precedent, and that NFL players truly can get contracts like NBA and MLB players.
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A £4000 bank betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth £62,947.90 a 1474% increase
The Road to Riches Weekend of 17th-18th September
Coming up this weekend
- Horse Racing On the flat at Bath, Chelmsford City, Chester, Doncaster, Lingfield and Musselburgh.
- Football, Premier League fixtures include Chelsea v Liverpool
- Rugby Union, the Rugby Championship, Argentina v South Africa
- NFL the new season continues with Week Two
- Golf The Presidents Cup on the USPGA and the French Open on the DP World Tour
- Tennis ATP Astana, Moselle and San Diego Opens
Free tip
English Premiership Rugby: Harlequins v Saracens 3pm Saturday
Saracens are the 7/4 favourites for this season’s Gallagher Premiership and sat out the first round of matches last weekend. In Saracens' first season back in the Premiership last year following their relegation for salary cap breaches Saracens beat Saturday’s opponents Harlequins at home 34-17 before a late drop-goal saw them to a 15-12 defeat by Leicester Tigers in the play-off final.
Their strong squad lost only a few players during their season in the Championship and their time in the second tier allowed a number of developing players from their academy to get game-time alongside some seasoned internationals and the benefits of that were seen last season.
Harlequins put in a robust defence of their Premiership title last season. They were the only team that finished in the top four in 2021 to return to the play-offs in 2022, but having started well in their semi-final at Saracens they eventually succumbed to their arch-rivals.
Harlequins began this season with a 40-31 win in Newcastle in a game with 11 tries and from trailing 31-28 with 10 minutes to go. They have a fast paced attacking style that only the top teams are going to live with this season, but of course Saracens are one of those teams with a renowned defence and the game management of Farrell and co on top.
The key factor in last weekend’s game in Newcastle was that they conceded 31 points and whilst we should expect their defensive patterns to tighten up once the ring rust disappears that’s not going to allow them to beat Saracens here.
15 points Saracens at 21/20 generally available
A year out
The 2023 Rugby World Cup is a year away and as of now, it looks completely unpredictable. If the game were today France would be odds-on to beat New Zealand on the tournament’s opening night but the last two months have shown that top level rugby has rarely been less stable or predictable.
Scotland, England, Ireland and Wales have all enjoyed at least one victory over a southern hemisphere nation inside the past two months. Argentina won in New Zealand a month ago, and the following week lost to the same opponents by 50 points. Australia beat South Africa in Adelaide and were thumped in Sydney a week later.
In France in 2023 winning seven games on the trot looks a tough prospect for every team at this stage. Take England, drawn in one of the softer looking pools with Argentina, Japan, Samoa and Chile. Where will Argentina be by then, a young team but inconsistent now, will they have matured by the time the tournament starts? The theory is that if England beat Argentina at Twickenham in November they will be odds-on to do likewise in Marseille next September.
Keep Johnny Sexton on the field and Ireland can believe after their terrific series win in New Zealand. England need to fiinally settle on their best, most effective combinations. They are ranked fifth in the world and need to progress this autumn. In that sense, England’s encounter with the All Blacks in November will be a useful barometer.
Between now and then luck will play its part, not least in terms of key playmakers staying fit. No one wants to see France without, say, Antoine Dupont and Romain Ntamack, with the brilliant Racing 92 centre Virimi Vakatawa already forced to retire.
At this stage, there are no less than seven genuine contenders to lift the trophy, and there has been no previous Rugby World Cup tournament you could say that about.
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Betting Emporium results
The detailed results page has been updated on 1st April 2022. They can be found by clicking RESULTS
If you bet £10 per point on every recommended bet since launch you would be winning + £59,082.60 All bets have an ROI +2.90%
The Road to Riches Weekend of 10th-11th September
Coming up this weekend
- Horse Racing On the flat at Bath, Chelmsford City, Chester, Doncaster, Lingfield and Musselburgh.
- Football, Premier League fixtures include Manchester City v Tottenham
- Rugby Union, the start of the new English Premiership season
- NFL the new season continues
- Cricket, The third test match between England and South Africa at the Oval continues
- Formula One, the Italian Grand Prix
- Golf The Fortinet championship on the USPGA and the Italian Open on the DP World Tour
- Tennis The Davis Cup Finals
Free tip
English Premiership Rugby: Exeter Chiefs v Leicester Tigers 3pm Saturday
Last season Leicester Tigers completed their recovery from the foot of the table three years ago to become Premiership Champions under coach Steve Borthwick winning 20 of their 24 regular season games last year. They begin this season at previous champions Exeter who finished seventh last year with 11 losses.
Inevitably within the confines of a salary cap both sides see squad changes this year. For Leicester Ford and Genge have departed and arrivals include South African fly half Handre Pollard and England winger Anthony Watson. What Leicester also have is the fruits of their Academy programme that has begun to send a pipeline of young talent into the first team. Freddie Steward is the highest profile example of this but there are many others which gives them a squad depth that is going to be needed. For Exeter internationals Sam Skinner and Jonny Hill are gone with the highest profile arrival the Australian front row Scott Sio.
In terms of playing style Leicester are very strong up-front and have relied on a good kicking game to get them in positions to play rugby. Exeter achieved their success off a style that favoured close-quarters attack in the forwards from which they were very difficult to stop. Perhaps a little one-dimensional though and teams began to work hard to stop them in that area.
This should be a tight game, but one where I like the visitors to eke out a win priced as slight underdogs.
12 points Leicester Tigers to win at 5/4 with William Hill, 11/10 Betfred
Exodus
English Premiership rugby clubs will discuss introducing an emergency salary-cap dispensation to sign Worcester Warriors players that are forced to leave the financially stricken side in the coming weeks. The proposal would require unanimous support to be passed. It has been reported that Worcester players will be allowed to leave if the club goes into administration having failed to pay wages at the end of August. Should departures follow players such as Duhan van der Merwe, Rory Sutherland, Ted Hill and Ollie Lawrence would be among the most attractive assets.
Under current regulations though it would seem difficult to pick up a job in a Premiership that has been operating under a reduced salary cap with 10 or 11 clubs spending within 5% of the ceiling cap. Others have taken the active decision to stay under it. Any sums paid to former Worcester players could be rendered exempt.
The vast majority of clubs have finalised their playing budgets for this season, with some already completing deals for 2023-24. Decreasing the league’s salary cap to £5m, plus a maximum of £1.4m in credits, was a measure made in 2020 with sustainability in mind.
There is a feeling that future planning in accordance with the cap should be rewarded and that allowing big spenders to bolster their squads at short notice would compromise the integrity of the Premiership. Another consideration is the added sense that endorsing spending sprees could be construed as irresponsible because the number one objective of the salary cap is to maintain financial viability.
Besides anything else, the likelihood is that the Premiership would move to become a 12-team league in the event that Worcester are unable to compete in the new season. Each club would therefore lose a home game and the associated revenue of up to £600,000, depending on attendances. Each Premiership team does have £400,000 to spend beyond the cap for injury cover.
Moves abroad to France, Japan and Major League Rugby in America most likely for Worcester’s top earners, but even those cannot be relied upon given the timing of this situation.
Worcester coach Steve Diamond said last week 'Worcester are just first in the line in being exposed by the frailties of professional sport' and reports over the weekend that the Premiership rugby clubs have reportedly over £500m in combined debts would back that up. Over 20 years of Rugby professionalism in this country and sustainability is a long way off.
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Results = points bet 26860 profit +1132.47 ROI +4.22% Full details here
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Betting Emporium results
The detailed results page has been updated on 1st April 2022. They can be found by clicking RESULTS
If you bet £10 per point on every recommended bet since launch you would be winning + £59,082.60 All bets have an ROI +2.90%
A £4000 bank betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth £63,082.60 a 1477% increase
