Weekly Articles "Road to Riches" by Rich 'Tighty' Prew
The Road to Riches: Weekend of 12th-13th February
Please note, I am away next week, no column.
Coming up this weekend
- Horse Racing Over the jumps at Newbury, Uttoxeter and Warwick and on the all-weather at Lingfield and Wolverhampton
- NFL The Superbowl
- Rugby Union The second weekend of the Six Nations
- Football, the return of the Premier League
- Winter Olympics continues in Beijing
- Golf The Hero Indian Open and on the USPGA the Genesis Invitational
- Tennis ATP events in Delray Beach, Marseillie, Qatar and Rio
Free tip
Gallagher Premiership: Wasps v Bath 3pm Saturday
Wasps have a 50% record so far this season, won seven lost 7. They beat both Leicester and Saracens at home in January then last weekend beat Exeter away to claim another big scalp.
Bath meanwhile, rooted to the bottom of the table (albeit with no relegation this season) had seen their form pick up slightly beating Worcester and Harlequins for their first wins of the season but it was back to the drawing board last weekend with a 40-3 loss at Saracens including a whopping 20 penalties conceded and 49 missed tackles. There is a new coaching team coming in the summer of 2022 but for now they are going to be heavy underdogs for games like this, especially with Wasps improving.
Wasps are 18 point favourites here and I like them to cover.
11 points Wasps -18 at 10/11 generally
Overtime
After Josh Allen’s sensational performance in the AFC Divisional round for the Bills, the current NFL overtime rules did not give him a chance to match Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs who won the toss, took the ball and scored a touchdown, and he did not touch the ball in overtime.
Playoff teams have a 90% win rate in overtime if they win the coin toss (10 out of 11) and 70% of those wins have come from opening drive touchdowns. The bigger picture though shows a more balanced picture. Of the 163 Overtime games (regular season + playoffs) under the current rules, only 35 of them were decided by touchdowns on the first possession of overtime. This implies that whilst winning the coin toss is important, strategy and execution matters as much if not more.
The following week in the Conference Championship overtime the Bengals stopped the Chiefs and then went down the field for a game winning field goal.
There have been alternative overtimes used effectively by the competing and minor leagues for decades. The Alliance of American Football used alternating first-and-goal from the 10-yard line possessions in overtime. If you scored, you went for two. Both teams get a shot. The XFL had alternating, single-play possessions from the 5-yard line, almost the football equivalent of penalty kicks. Team A runs a play, then team B runs a play. You get two points for each successful conversion in a best-of-five scenario. Go until someone is eliminated.
Last year, the Baltimore Ravens proposed a spot-and-choose scenario, which awards the team that wins the coin toss the right to pick where to spot the ball or whether they want to play offense or defense.
Will a change now be proposed and adopted? We’ll wait and see but perhaps the Bengals stop and subsequent win has relieved some of the pressure for change, which would have been immense if Mahomes had scored on the single overtime possession two weeks running in such high profile games.
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Monthly subs are £50 a month and can be cancelled at any time. You can sign up here.
Betting Emporium results
The detailed results page has been updated on 1st January as have the spreadsheets with the detailed bets. They can be found by clicking RESULTS
If you bet £10 per point on every recommended bet since launch you would be winning + £52,282.40 All bets have an ROI +2.62%
A £4000 bank betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth £56,282.40 a 1307% increase
The Road to Riches: Weekend of 5th-6th February
Coming up this weekend
- Horse Racing Over the jumps at Musselburgh, Sandown and Wetherby and on the all-weather at Lingfield and Kempton
- Rugby Union The start of the Six Nations
- Football, the FA Cup Fourth Round
- Golf The Ras Al Khaimah Championship in the UAE and on the USPGA the Waste Management Open
- Tennis ATP events in Dallas and Rotterdam
Free tip
Gallagher Premiership rugby Bristol v Newcastle Falcons 2pm Saturday
The Premiership continues coinciding with the start of Six Nations. All clubs operate within a salary cap, so the following two months require the depth and youth within squads to be used during the international tournament.
Bristol finished 1st in the regular season league table last two years and lost in the semi-finals of the play-offs to eventual winners Harlequins. This season has been disappointing though, they have won only 4 of 12 league games. Often scintillating in attack, as shown when beating Sale 32-15 in their last league game scoring 5 tries, they have been highly inconsistent and having to turn to younger players in this season’s reduced salary cap environment they have struggled.
Like all sides they’ll miss their internationals for most of February and March, in their case Sinckler, Sheedy and Randall.
Newcastle Falcons have a 5-8 record this season following their 22-32 home loss to Gloucester last Saturday night. This follows on from a 10th place finish last season. They’ll be missing Jamie Blamire and winger Adam Radwan, just called up to the England squad.
I expect a bonus point win for Bristol here, but this is reflected in the spread of -13 which has Bristol winning by a couple of scores but their inconsistency is an issue. The value is the other way
11 points Newcastle Falcons +12 points at Evens Bet365, 10/11 elsewhere
Last sixteen
The Champions Cup round of 16 first-leg games will take place between 8-10 April, with the return legs scheduled for 15-17 April.
The four highest-ranked clubs in each pool - Racing, Ulster, La Rochelle, Leinster, Leicester, Harlequins, Munster and Bristol - will have home advantage in the second leg matches.
Here is the last-16 first-leg line-up.
- Stade Francais v Racing 92
- Toulouse v Ulster
- Bordeaux-Begles v La Rochelle
- Connacht v Leinster
- Sale v Bristol
- Exeter v Munster
- Montpellier v Harlequins
- Clermont v Leicester
The ties have an unusual feel as a series of COVID related cancellations and subsequent 28-0 score-line forfeits during the pool stages meant that the final tables were topsy-turvy. For example Ulster won all four pool games but Cup holders Toulouse had two cancellations and only finished seventh in their pool. The result is a very tough last sixteen tie for both. The same applies to both of the all French encounters. Bordeaux are top of the French top 14 but had to forfeit their game at Leicester and they ended up creeping through the Pool where their “reward” is a tie against last season’s losing finalists La Rochelle.
StattoBets Dave Monthly Subscription
Stattobets write ups, analysis and bets are available to monthly subscribers.
Monthly subs are £50 a month and can be cancelled at any time. You can sign up here.
Betting Emporium results
The detailed results page has been updated on 1st January as have the spreadsheets with the detailed bets. They can be found by clicking RESULTS
If you bet £10 per point on every recommended bet since launch you would be winning + £52,282.40 All bets have an ROI +2.62%
A £4000 bank betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth £56,282.40 a 1307% increase
The Road to Riches: Weekend of 29th-30th January
Coming up this weekend
- Horse Racing Over the jumps at Cheltenham, Doncaster and Uttoxeter and on the all-weather at Lingfield and Kempton
- Football, a full schedule of Football League matches
- Cricket, the England T20 Series in the West Indies continues in Barbados
- NFL Play offs, the Conference Championships
- Golf The Ras Al Khaimah Championship in the UAE and on the USPGA the Pebble Beach Pro-Am
- Tennis the final weekend of the ATP Australian Open
Free tip
West Indies v England 4th T20 International, Barbados Saturday 8pm GMT
The fourth match in a five-game series in Barbados ahead of three test matches in March, with the series standing at 2-1 to the West Indies after their high scoring win on Wednesday.
Back in the 2021 T20 World Cup the West Indies only won one of five Pool games whilst England won 4 out of 5 only to lose to New Zealand in the semi-finals. The West Indies are introducing less experienced players for this series whilst the core of England’s long term T20 squad is intact, only minus those players who participated in the Ashes series.
Kieron Pollard is the West Indies captain and bats number 5. Since 2019 he has top scored in 9 of 33 West Indies T20I’s with a strike rate in the 140s. The pitch for the first game of the series was very two paced and the match low scoring, for the second and third games different surfaces were much truer so that’s a main variable here. There is a risk of a low scoring match, as we go to the later stages of the series the likelihood of playing on use pitches increases. Also the risk of earlier wickets and the mid-to-late batting order getting more time at the crease than prices suggest.
In any case getting price about a dangerous hitter here looks attractive
10 points Kieron Pollard Top West Indies run scorer at 6/1 with Bet365, Betfred and William Hill
What next?
Joe Root spoke about his suggestions to improve the fortunes of the England test cricket team in the wake of their 4-0 Ashes series lost including the following ideas.
His ad-hoc blueprint included the following ideas:
- Revised Championship schedule, with more first-class games in high summer
- Greater emphasis on producing spin bowlers and high pace
- Change to the points system to incentivise high scores
- Experiment with the Kookaburra ball
- Truer batting patches and less extravagant seam movement
For the first point, with the 2022 summer season fixtures just out it is encouraging to see four four day matches to be played in June and July, compared to one last year. Aside from that though it is less obvious how a new consensus that change is required to address the imbalance between a priority on one day formats and the red ball game will be addressed.
As it stands England still has four separate domestic competitions, with The Hundred allocated a dedicated window in the season following last year’s launch. Resistance from counties meant the new city-based tournament was layered on top of the two existing limited-overs competitions and the crowded schedule ensures most red ball cricket is played early or late season.
The squad for the next Test tour in the West Indies will be named next month and whilst we should expect changes in batting especially there aren’t too many options with domestic records better than those selected for the Ashes tour. The problems are considerably deeper than selection policy.
StattoBets Dave Monthly Subscription
Stattobets write ups, analysis and bets are available to monthly subscribers.
Monthly subs are £50 a month and can be cancelled at any time. You can sign up here.
Betting Emporium results
The detailed results page has been updated on 1st September as have the spreadsheets with the detailed bets. They can be found by clicking RESULTS
If you bet £10 per point on every recommended bet since launch you would be winning + £52,282.40 All bets have an ROI +2.62%
A £4000 bank betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth £56,282.40 a 1307% increase
The Road to Riches: Weekend of 22nd-23rd January
Coming up this weekend
- Horse Racing Over the jumps at Ascot, Haydock and Taunton and on the all-weather at Lingfield and Wolverhampton
- Football, Premier League fixtures include Chelsea v Tottenham Hotspur
- Cricket, the England T20 Series in the West Indies begins
- NFL Play offs, the Divisional Round
- Rugby Union, European Champions Cup Pool matches
- Golf The Dubai Desert Classic on the USPGA the Farmers Open at Torrey Pines
- Tennis ATP Australian Open continues
Free tip
European Rugby Champions Cup Pool B Leicester v Bordeaux-Begles Saturday 3.15pm
Leicester beat Bordeaux 16-13 in the reverse fixture before Christmas ahead of two tight victories over Connacht, including 29-28 with the last play of the game in Galway last weekend. They have only lost once this season, at Wasps a fortnight ago and under coach Steve Borthwick are a formidable prospect up front with a strong kicking game led by George Ford and plenty of gas out wide if conditions allow
Bordeaux’s game at the Scarlets was cancelled due to COVID travel restrictions and in round 2 and in the reverse fixture they scored seven tries beating the Scarlets at home 45-10 last Sunday
Bordeaux are top of the French Top 14, eight points clear at the head og the table with 11 wins and a draw in 14 matches to date. They are also very strong up front with a reliable kicker in Jalibert.
This has the feel of a tight contest again, likely to be one score either way with two strong packs, strong defences and kicking games to the fore, on balance taking Bordeaux with the points getting more than a score looks the best approach
11 points Bordeaux-Begles +8 points at 10/11 generally
System down.
Since beginning of December the Premier League has seen 22 successful postponement requests as the Omnicron COVID variant has moved through the country. Aside from that, there is widespread disquiet the clubs are gaming the system. Premier League clubs know that system now and nothing concerns them more than the possibility rivals might have spotted a competitive advantage.
Arsenal were missing “nine or ten players” for their Carabao cup semi final at Anfield. Less than 24 hours later, with the full extent of their problems clear, five further injuries in that game, African Nations absentees and perhaps as little as one Covid positive, the club decided to ask for the postponement of the North London derby. No matter that Ainsley Maitland-Niles and Florin Balogun had been allowed to leave on loan earlier in the week. By Saturday afternoon the game was postponed.
Leicester City and Watford have had three successful postponement applications and nine more clubs have had one or more. Some clubs have argued that their willingness to keep playing through previous Covid outbreaks has put undue stress on their core of available players whose workload would otherwise have been reduced had a full squad been at the manager’s disposal. This, they say, has in turn lead to injuries, not strictly Covid infections, but Covid injuries. Some had to play when they could have done with more recuperation. Arsenal’s position was that this exacerbated the situation and resulted more injuries which ultimately played into last weekend’s situation.
If you consider how desperate the Premier League were to keep the Christmas schedule going, because of the audience advantage it gave them over every other major European league, this really was the last thing they wanted. The first thing to say is that all sides came together to vote on this. The clubs are only subject to the rules and protocols they themselves agreed, and subsequently adapted for the spread of Omicron.
While it has been mooted in some quarters that they should have another vote to change the rules, that simply isn’t going to happen mid-season. It would mean one part of the campaign is played under different conditions to another. It is described as a “non-starter” that would create “integrity issues”.
The Premier League board are presented with the thankless task of adjudication, especially now the reasons for postponement have moved far beyond the relative simplicity of the number of COVID positive cases in the squad.
StattoBets Dave Monthly Subscription
Stattobets write ups, analysis and bets are available to monthly subscribers.
Monthly subs are £50 a month and can be cancelled at any time. You can sign up here.
Betting Emporium results
The detailed results page has been updated on 1st September as have the spreadsheets with the detailed bets. They can be found by clicking RESULTS
If you bet £10 per point on every recommended bet since launch you would be winning + £52,096.80 All bets have an ROI +2.66%
A £4000 bank betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth would now be worth £56,096.80 a 1302% increase
The Road to Riches: Weekend of 15th-16th January
Coming up this weekend
- Horse Racing Over the jumps at Kempton, Warwick and Wetherby and on the all-weather at Chelmsford City and Lingfield
- Football, Premier League fixtures include Manchester City v Chelsea
- Cricket, the fifth Ashes Test in Hobart continues
- NFL Play offs, wild card weekend
- Rugby Union, European Champions Cup Pool matches
- Golf The Abu Dhabi HSBC Championship and on the USPGA the American Express Championship
- Tennis ATP Australian Open
Free tip
European Rugby Champions Cup Pool B Wasps v Toulouse 1pm Saturday
Toulouse, last season’s Champions in this competition, are the favourite again this season. Currently second in the French Top 14 with 9 wins from 13 matches they kicked off their defence of this title with a 39-7 win in Cardiff, against a weakened side at the time recently out of COVID isolation in South Africa.
Wasps meanwhile had the result of their season last weekend narrowly holding on to beat previously unbeaten Leicester in the Gallagher Premiership, to record their fifth win of the season in 12 matches and their first win in the last 8 in all competitions. Quite the shock result as they were missing 17 squad members through injury and illness. They began this tournament with a hope loss to Munster, 35-14.
The match between these two sides in Toulouse before Christmas was postponed due to French COVID travel restrictions. Toulouse are clearly the better side and deserved favourites, 1/3 outright and -9 on the handicap. To be frank, I expected the handicap to be in double figures.
They have only played one game since the 11th December (a narrow league loss to Clermont on New Year’s Day) and will be fresh here and I would expect them to win by two scores plus
20 points Toulouse -9 at 10/11 generally
You can never tell
With fans dressed as clowns in the stands and the No. 1 pick in the 2022 NFL draft in their grasp with another loss, the Jacksonville Jaguars flipped the expected script at the end of a trying season, pulling a massive upset over the Indianapolis Colts on Sunday to win 26-11. Amazingly, it was the seventh straight season the Colts have failed to win their road game against the Jaguars, with six losses in Jacksonville and another in London.
Sunday's result was disastrous for the Colts, who entered the game needing to win or tie to secure a playoff berth. With the Steelers beating the Ravens in overtime, the Colts officially were eliminated from the playoffs.
Even with the win, the Lions victory over the Packers guaranteed that Jacksonville still own the top overall selection for the second straight year and go into the offseason interviewing for another new coaching staff and one of the best cap positions in the league with nearly $60m available for the free agency market
This unexpected loss for the Colts is compounded by them not having their 2022 first round draft pick, traded to the Eagles as part of the deal to bring Quarterback Carson Wentz to the franchise. He played the required 75% of season snaps that meant they lost the pick.
As 16 point favourites going into the game against a one win team, one of the more surprising NFL losses of this or any other season!
StattoBets Dave Monthly Subscription
Stattobets write ups, analysis and bets are available to monthly subscribers.
Monthly subs are £50 a month and can be cancelled at any time. You can sign up here.
Betting Emporium results
The detailed results page has been updated on 1st September as have the spreadsheets with the detailed bets. They can be found by clicking RESULTS
If you bet £10 per point on every recommended bet since launch you would be winning + £52,096.80 All bets have an ROI +2.66%
A £4000 bank betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth would now be worth £56,096.80 a 1302% increase
