Weekly Articles "Road to Riches" by Rich 'Tighty' Prew
The Road to Riches: Weekend of 2nd-3rd October
Coming up this weekend
- Horse Racing, On the flat at Ascot, Newmarket and Redcar. Over the jumps at Fontwell and on the all-weather at Wolverhampton
- Football, Premier League matches include Liverpool v Manchester City
- Rugby Union, the Rugby Championship continues, South Africa v New Zealand and Argentina v Australia
- Cricket, The IPL resumption continues
- Golf, the Shriners Hospitals for Children Open on the USPGA and on the European Tour the Spanish Open
- Tennis, ATP BNP Paribas Open at Indian wells and ATP Japan and China Opens
Free tip
Rugby Championship Round 6 South Africa v New Zealand, Gold Coast, Saturday 11.05am
Last weekend New Zealand secured the 2021 Rugby Championship title with a 19-17 victory over their same opponents this week, South Africa at the same venue in Townsville.
Prior to that match New Zealand had won four out of 4 scoring 170 points, conceding only 56 and scoring 23 tries against Australia and Argentina. It’s not a surprise that the first South Africa match was very different in nature against a side with a very different style (punishing defence, kick chase and kick for territory the staples of their attacking game) and it took a 78th minute penalty to take the lead for the final time in a game where the lead changed hands seven times
Before last week’s defeat South Africa had 2 wins and 2 losses, losing both matches to an improving Australia side by 2 and then 13 points.
We should expect more of the same this week. The All Blacks were pressed into numerous handling errors by the South Africa defence, whilst the breakdown forwards competed relentlessly. The fact that South Africa scored their try from a spilled high kick cemented that tactic for the rest of the game and it remains frustrating, for the neutral, to see South Africa make little attempt to utilise their outside runners with ball in hand
I see New Zealand winning again, there is no doubt about their attacking capability and now they have shown they can hang in a game against sheer power and probably can execute better this week but it is likely to be another close run thing.
10 points New Zealand to win by 1-12 points at 2/1 with Betfrair Sportsbook, 15/8 with Paddy Power, 8/5 Betfred.
Ashes to Ashes?
For England only one home Test win this summer represents their worst performance in summer series since 1999. All year selections have been made, including much rotation of players, with two key series in mind taking place this winter, The Ashes and the T20 World Cup.
Whilst the T20 team is settled and performs consistently well the Test team has both underperformed and has a number of ongoing issues.
While no-one could have foreseen the circumstances of Ben Stokes' break from cricket and also with injuries to a slew of fast bowlers a constant theme, an inexperienced batting line-up has not performed and decisions over spin-bowling haven’t been made with the long term in mind largely brought about by not playing spinners all summer,.
This time last year Dom Sibley, Zak Crawley and Ollie Pope seemed set to be half of England's Ashes top six in what would have been the end of a two-year build-up for the young batsmen. After a difficult winter in India, Sibley and Crawley were dropped over the course of the home games this summer and Pope only returned to the side at the end of the India series.
In place of Sibley (Test average 28.94), Crawley (28.34) and Pope (32.16) have come for Haseeb Hameed (35.90), Dawid Malan (28.62) and Jonny Bairstow (33.70) but none are fixtures in the side yet.
The absence of Stokes has also had a knock-on for England's spinners as they have been left out as England tried to balance a team without an all-rounder. Moeen Ali has been a temporary solution as late order batsman and spinner but has now retired from Test cricket.
As ever, England's batting will largely depend on Joe Root who has scored three times the runs of any other England batsman in 2021. Root has never made a century in nine Tests in Australia. If that does not change, it is hard to see England returning home with anything other than a heavy defeat. England could yet have Anderson and Broad opening the bowling in the first Test at the Gabba for the fourth successive Ashes tour. Despite their records Anderson has won only three of his 18 Tests in Australia, Broad one of 12.
It looks a bleak picture, if of course the tour goes ahead as planned given the tough COVID restrictions in Australia.
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The Road to Riches: Weekend of 25-26th September
Coming up this weekend
- Horse Racing, On the flat at Chester, Haydock, Newmarket and Ripon. Over the jumps at Market Rasen and on the all-weather at Chelmsford City
- Football, Premier League matches include Chelsea v Manchester City
- Rugby Union, the Rugby Championship continues, New Zealand v South Africa and Australia v Argentina
- Formula One, the Russian Grand Prix in Sochi
- Cricket, The IPL resumption continues
- Golf, the Ryder Cup
- Tennis, ATP Laver Cup and Sofia Open
Free tip
The Cambridgeshire Handicap Newmarket 3.35pm Saturday by Neil Channing
For a few years it looked like there was a big disadvantage to be drawn high in this race but the last five winners came from 28, 29, 21, 29 and 25 so we can throw that out of the window. Looking at the place horses the high numbers have also done better in the last five years. I don't think I'm going to be too dogmatic about the draw here but I'll lean towards high. I will narrow the field by avoiding those at bigger than 25/1 due to the danger of betting things at bigger prices known as the favourite/longshot bias. The idea here is that you'll lose your money more slowly if you randomly bet shorter priced things than longer priced as the prices are closer to the "real price" of things happening at the shorter end of the market. The exchange markets definitely understand this concept and they are happy to let things that the bookies make 33/1 go to 46.0 but the bookmakers can't follow as they are offering each-way terms that are "too generous" and would be hugely overbroke. What we need to do is find horses that are close to their Betfair price and benefit from the enhanced place terms that the bookies offer without betting at under the odds on the win. If we stick to shorter prices that will be much easier to do.
Bubbling Over.
The cancellation of the fifth Test between England and India denied the series an end on the field after a chain of events that began when India head coach Ravi Shastri tested positive for Covid-19 during the fourth-Test, forcing three other staff members to isolate. When another member of the backroom team, a physio, tested positive on Thursday, India cancelled training and then the match two hours before the start of the first day.
India were 2-1 ahead in the series and whether or not they are ultimately deemed to have forfeited the match the cancellation has financial implications for the ECB, Old Trafford, broadcasters and sponsors, initially with full refunds for 80,000 spectators. A forfeiture would give England the match, a share of the series and World Test Championship points, to be ruled upon by the ICC.
The BCCI has offered to reschedule the match, although that is more likely to be a standalone Test, rather than the fifth match in this series. India are due back in the UK next summer for three Twenty20 and three one-day internationals.
The India players, along with some from England, left for the resumption of the IPL, the tournament having been postponed with rising coronavirus cases in India in May and it is widely felt that at least in part the Old Trafford postponement is connected to the IPL.
As for England, prospects for the winter’s Ashes series in Australia are uncertain. Some England players have indicated they may pull out of the tour if their families cannot join them in Australia. Australia has some of the strictest Covid-19 protocols in the world. The five Tests in December and January are due to be played in five states, each of which have their own rules, adding a further layer of complication.
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If you bet £10 per point on every recommended bet since launch you would be winning + £42,703.40 All bets have an ROI +2.39%
A £4000 bank betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth £46,703.40 a 1068% increase
The Road to Riches: Weekend of 18th-19th September
Coming up this weekend
- Horse Racing, On the flat at Ayr, Catterick, Newbury, Newmarket and on the all-weather at Wolverhampton
- Football, Premier League matches include Tottenham Hotspur v Chelsea
- Rugby Union, the Rugby Championship continues, New Zealand v Argentina in Perth
- Cricket, T20 Blast finals Day at Edgbaston
- Tennis, ATP Moselle in Metz
Free tip
Cricket, T20 Blast finals Day
A rarity this year for finals day with all four teams coming out of the South Group. The semi final draw is as follows
Hampshire v Somerset 11am
Kent v Sussex 2.30pm
It’s a very competitive line up as evidenced by the prices in the winners market
Somerset 5/2
Sussex 5/2
Kent 11/4
Hampshire 3/1
A point to note that in mid-September, in a competition marginalised by the advent of the Hundred and squeezed into a late slot, weather problems are a probability which will increase results and toss variance.
What of the four teams? Kent won the South group, then comfortably beat Birmingham in the Quarter final. Hampshire crept into the Quarters in 4th place in the group then squeaked past Notts in a low scoring Quarter. Somerset beat Lancashire in a high scoring Quarter final in Taunton. Sussex made the quarter finals despite five no result matches in 14 group games then beat Yorkshire in the Quarter chasing 180 to win
I do like the look of Sussex, as they have all bases covered from Tymal Mills, recently restored to the England T20 team for the upcoming World Cup , with pace to Rashid Khan with leg spin and a high powered batting line up with hitters throughout.
Lots of variance around, but they are my idea of winners here
10 points Sussex to win the T20 blast at 5/2 generally
The Long Game
It is widely known that the Houston Texans have been speaking with potential trade partners for quarterback Deshaun Watson and are speculated to have been offered a first-round draft pick, and a conditional pick that could turn into a first-round pick, which they turned down.
Meanwhile journeyman quarterback Tyrod Taylor has begun the season as the starter, with 47 starts in 10 NFL seasons. Watson, who has thrown more touchdown passes the last two seasons (59) than Taylor has thrown his entire career (54), is not going to play.
Watson is going to collect $10.54m in base salary this season, despite the fact he doesn’t ever want to play for the Texans and the Texans have no intention of ever letting him play for them. This all started last winter when national media first reported Watson wanted out of Houston for reasons related to his belief that Houston ownership had broken promises to him. A number of teams enquired about trading for him, unsurprisingly because Watson is a Top 10 NFL quarterback and only 26 years old.
Then Watson’s enormous legal problems came to light as a number of women asked Watson to pay damages for what they allege is improper sexual conduct during massage sessions. When Watson dismissed those claims as extortion, the women filed lawsuits. And the number of women doing so grew to 22 all alleging Watson sexually assaulted them or engaged in sexually inappropriate behavior during massage sessions. Eight of those women plus two others who had not filed civil suits spoke to the Houston police and filed criminal complaints.
Despite charges and counter charges, the Texans spent part of the spring still not seriously engaging teams about a trade, although the Houston Chronicle was the first to report the team would require three first-round picks and two second-rounders to move Watson.
“That’s about right, but it’s a negotiation so we figured that would be the starting point,” the NFL source said. “We didn’t think they’d actually be serious about that price with all that’s hanging over his head.”
It seems everyone understands the legal resources make giving up the significant resources Houston wants for Watson currently impossible. It also seems Houston understands their desire to get top value in exchange for Watson is not currently possible. So the Texans are going to wait for the legal issues to be resolved, and play the long game.
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Betting Emporium results
The detailed results page has been updated as have the spreadsheets with the detailed bets. They can be found by clicking RESULTS
If you bet £10 per point on every recommended bet since launch you would be winning + £42,703.40 All bets have an ROI +2.39%
A £4000 bank betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth £46,703.40 a 1068% increase
The Road to Riches: Weekend of 11th-12th September
Coming up this weekend
- Horse Racing, On the flat at Bath, Chester, Doncaster, Lingfield and Musselburgh and on the all-weather at Chelmsford
- Football, Premier League matches include Leicester City v Manchester City and Leeds United v Liverpool
- Rugby Union, the Rugby Championship continues, New Zealand v Argentina in Perth
- Cricket, the fifth Test match between England and India at Old Trafford
- Formula One, the Italian Grand Prix
- Golf, the Fortinet Championship on the USPGA and the Dutch Open on the European Tour.
Free tip
Italian Grand Prix, Sunday 2pm
Now into the second half of the F1 season with Verstappen and Hamilton in a tight battle at the top of the drivers Championship with Red Bull just having the edge on raw pace over Mercedes through most of the season.
In the “finish in the top 3” market prices are as follows
Hamilton and Verstappen 2/7
Bottas 8/11
Norris and Perez 5/2
Perez, Red Bull’s second driver, had a new engine fitted before the last race in Zandvoort and the team will have a pace advantage over over Mclaren (Norris, same price as Perez to podium) and an improving Ferrari, which generally performs better in slower corners. Monza however is all about engine power and straight line speed.
If we then look at the prices being offered for Bottas v Perez there is a big discrepancy. Bottas, now in his last year with Mercedes is consistent but lacks raw pace.
Perez has only 1 win and 1 podium in 13 races this season, a disappointing return in his first season at Red Bull, where he was brought in to support Verstappen and mount a two pronged attacked on Mercedes, but 5/2 looks a great value price here.
10 points Sergio Perez Top three finish Italian Grand Prix at 5/2 generally
Threading the Needle
Jacksonville Jaguars coach Urban Meyer ruffled some feathers last week with comments about vaccination status affecting roster decisions, and the team had to explain what their head coach really meant when he told the media that a player’s COVID vaccination status “was certainly in consideration” when the team were making decisions on roster cuts.
The Jags released a statement that attempted to reframe Meyer's comments in a way that wouldn't get him in trouble
“Availability is one of the many factors taken into account when making roster decisions,” the team said in a general statement issued Wednesday morning, with no specific name attached to it. “We have vaccinated and unvaccinated players on our roster, and no player was released because of their vaccination status. Ultimately, decisions are based on a player’s ability to help the Jaguars win. We educate our players and respect personal decisions as it pertains to the vaccine. We want to keep our players, staff and families safe as we comply with protocols related to both health and safety and competition on game days.”
The agreed rules of the league and the union prevent teams from considering vaccination status when making employment decisions. However, those same rules also create a very strong incentive to shed players whose availability will be impacted by vaccination status. That’s the needle the Jaguars are now trying to thread, given Meyer’s remarks.
A month ago an NFL memo clubs that if a game cannot be rescheduled during the 18-week season in 2021 due to a COVID outbreak among unvaccinated players, the team with the outbreak will forfeit and be credited with a loss for playoff seeding and the team responsible for a canceled game because of an outbreak among unvaccinated players/staff will be responsible for financial losses and subject to potential discipline from the commissioner. The memo was widely interpretated as an attempt to strong arm players into vaccination
Unvaccinated players could be available far less over the course of the season due to the time they have to miss if they are exposed to COVID-19, test positive, or miss a day of their mandated daily testing. Vaccinated players miss far, far less time if they're exposed or test positive, and currently they're not required to be tested every day.
"Availability" is, at least in part, a fancy way to say "yes, we are considering vaccination status" without actually saying it. But Meyer didn't use those words. Instead, he said the quiet part aloud and admitted that he considered vaccination status.
An NFLPA spokesperson meanwhile said that his union had opened an investigation into Meyer’s comments.
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Betting Emporium results
The detailed results page has been updated as have the spreadsheets with the detailed bets. They can be found by clicking RESULTS
If you bet £10 per point on every recommended bet since launch you would be winning + £42,703.40 All bets have an ROI +2.39%
A £4000 bank betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth £46,703.40 a 1068% increase
The Road to Riches: Weekend of 4th-5th September
Coming up this weekend
- Horse Racing, On the flat at Ascot, Haydock, Kempton, Thirsk and Wolverhampton and over the jumps at Stratford.
- Football, World Cup Qualifying Matches
- Rugby Union, the Rugby Championship continues, Australia v New Zealand in Perth
- Cricket, the fourth Test match between England and India at The Kia Oval
- Formula One, the Dutch Grand Prix
- Golf, the BMW PGA Championship at Wentworth.
- Tennis, The US Open continues
NFL 2021 Regular season
The new season begins next Thursday. Weekly write ups throughout the seventeen week season
Read what to expect here
Sign up for the 17 week regular NFL season for just £50 here
Free tip
NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year
It seemed like a forgone conclusion that Trevor Lawrence would be the first pick of the 2021 NFL Draft since he led Clemson to a national championship as a freshman back in 2018. As expected, the Jacksonville Jaguars selected him No. 1 overall, and now he heads into his debut season leading a deep crop of talented rookies and understandably Lawrence is favourite for the Offensive rookie of the year title in 2021, won last year by Justin Herbert of the Chargers
First some data:
Just three wide receivers have won the award over the last 22 seasons.
No tight end or offensive lineman has ever won the award.
Last season marked the first time since 2006 that a player from the AFC won the award.
Despite the profile and importance of the Quarterback position, four of the last eight winners have been running backs. As a general rule, it’s easier for a running back to have a rookie impact than it is a wide receiver.
That said, the current RedZoneSports ante- post market for this season has five Quarterbacks at the head of the market
Lawrence 7/2
Jones (Patriots) 6/1
Fields (Bears) 15/2
Lance (49ers) 15/2
Wilson (Jets) 15/2
Harris (Steelers running back) 17/2
Pitts (Falcons Tight End) 10/1
16/1 bar
Apart from Lawrence, named as the starter for week one onwards, each of Fields and Lance are unlikely to play 16 games with head coaches (rather conservatively) going with veteran Quarterbacks to start the season and that provides some of the value elsewhere in the market. Jones has seen his price halve after the release of Cam Newton at the Patriots and Wilson could be a very live play with the Jets investing in a number of skill position players alongside him my suggestion for value is Najee Harris the Steelers running back.
Pittsburgh understands that Roethlisberger, now a seventeen-year veteran, may no longer be capable of carrying an offense with his arm. Harris gives the Steelers a bruising three-down back that is going to get 400+ touches if he stays fit. Harris is a tenacious runner with good vision and the agility to make tacklers miss when needed. He should stack up rushing yardage, but his ability as a pass catcher and touchdown maker could be the difference if he is to win the award.
10 points Najee Harris Offensive Rookie of the Year 17/2 RedZoneSports
Revision
Queensland will host eight of the remaining Rugby Championship Tests after a Covid-enforced change to the schedule.
New Zealand and Australia are currently subject to lockdowns and the All Blacks cancelled two games including their Bledisloe Cup match in Perth.
But Queensland, largely free of coronavirus, has been deemed safe to host all four nations.
The new fixtures will be double-headers over four weekends from 12 September.
The Championship kicked off at Eden Park in New Zealand on 14 August, with the hosts thrashing the Wallabies 57-22.
South Africa then hosted two games against Argentina, winning both to top the table, before the competition was thrown into jeopardy as New Zealand's snap lockdown after a first COVID case in six months led to cancellations.
Three venues in Queensland will now stage the forthcoming rounds, except for the Australia-New Zealand game which is still set for Perth this coming weekend.
The Gold Coast will host New Zealand v Argentina and Australia v South Africa in a back-to-back double-header on 12 September in round three, as well as the round-six ties. The other rounds will be played in Brisbane and Townsville.
StattoBets Dave Monthly Subscription
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Monthly subs are £50 a month and can be cancelled at any time. You can sign up here.
Betting Emporium results
The detailed results page has been updated as have the spreadsheets with the detailed bets. They can be found by clicking RESULTS
If you bet £10 per point on every recommended bet since launch you would be winning + £42,703.40 All bets have an ROI +2.39%
A £4000 bank betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth £46,703.40 a 1068% increase
