The Road to Riches: Weekend of 4th-5th December

Coming up this weekend

• Horse Racing Over the jumps at Aintree, Chepstow, Sandown and Wetherby and on the all-weather at Wolverhampton
• Football, Premier League fixtures include West Ham United v Chelsea
• Cricket, the first Ashes Test in Brisbane starts on Thursday
• Formula One, the Saudi Arabia Grand Prix
• NFL Week 13

Free tip

The 2021 Ashes

Starting next Thursday in Brisbane, Australia are 1/3 favourites to win the Ashes, England 4/1 outsiders. The schedule is a condensed one, with five Tests in six weeks, though already the Perth Test is rated “50-50” due to the onset of more COVID restrictions and the emergence of the new Omicrom variant. For now though the schedule is as follows:

First Test: 8-12 December - Gabba, Brisbane

Second Test: 16-20 December - Adelaide Oval, Adelaide (day/night)

Third Test: 26-30 December - MCG, Melbourne)

Fourth Test: 5-9 January - SCG, Sydney

Fifth Test: 14-18 January - Optus Stadium, Perth

With the cricketing calendar so congested across all formats and players having been in bubbles for the best part of two years, the trend towards rotating players is going to intensify. England already have this stated aim. So whilst a best England XI undoubtedly features a x year old Anderson and a y year old Broad it seems a stretch to expect them to play five Tests. Although Australia’s first choice bowling line up (Starc, Cummins, Hazlewood, Lyon) is more settled, the same probably applies.

Looking at the odds for Top Series bowler across both teams we have the following

Cummins 7/2

Hazlewood 9/2

Lyon 5/1

Anderson 6/1

Starc 7/1

Broad 10/1

12/1 bar

It’s not a surprise to see Australian bowlers at the head of the market for a team that are such strong favourites at home. When we look at the Australian first choice attack we have the following for their Test records

Cummins 34 matches 164 wickets strike rate of 47.1

Hazlewood 55 matches 212 wickets strike rate of 56.1

Lyon 100 matches 399 wickets strike rate of 64.3

Starc 61 matches 255 wickets strike rate of 49.3

What makes Cummins a worthy favourite is that he has been appointed Captain following Tim Payne stepping down and, with the caveat that he remains fit, looks the least likely bowler along with the spinners to be rotated and rested during the series.

Cummins, as the top ranked bowler in the Test rankings, could be favourite even without the captaincy and thus extra risk of rotation but looks a very solid bet with the protection Captaincy should bring to his place in the line-up.

10 points Pat Cummins Top Series Bowler at 7/2 with Skybet 3/1 with Betfair Sportsbook/PaddyPower. More firms to follow in the run up to Thursday

Unwreck it Ralf

Only five Premier League sides have conceded more goals than Manchester United this season.

Ralf Rangnick arrives on an initial six-month deal, there are plans for a two-year consultancy role to follow and his wealth of experience and tactical nous will be invaluable. Solskjaer's managerial principles were founded upon man-management as opposed to detailed tactical knowledge and Rangnick is the opposite to the Norwegian. Jurgen Klopp, Thomas Tuchel and Julian Nagelsmann all credit Rangnick as a compelling influence, but the true extent of his impact goes beyond those managers.

While Rangnick was the mastermind at board room level behind RB Leipzig's rise to the Champions League, he forged his reputation as a coach and RB Leipzig conceded the fewest goals (29) in the Bundesliga, a better record than champions Bayern Munich (32).

United have fielded a defence that has been worth in excess of £200m in most Premier League games this season, however their back four is statistically one of the worst. Harry Maguire, Luke Shaw and Aaron Wan-Bissaka are all underperforming.

United’s lack of organisation under Solskjaer was never resolved. He could set up a team to defend deep and strike on the break, which brought a series of notable results in big games, but they struggled to break down well-organised defences. This season, the flaw was compounded by the signing of Ronaldo a nostalgia-driven investment, another reminder that United as a club see themselves as being less about the production of effective football than saleable content. 

Suddenly it was no longer possible to sit deep and counter because there was a player who had to be selected up front. With a great midfield, as Real Madrid showed with Casemiro, Luka Modric and Toni Kroos, it is possible to compensate for Ronaldo and his unwillingness or inability to press. Scott McTominay, Fred and Nemanja Matic do not constitute a great midfield. Nor was playing at least 4 of Ronaldo, Fernandes, Rashford, Greenwood and Sancho against the top sides a route to providing cover for an exposed back four.

This is a squad that has been expensively assembled, but it lacks coherence and whoever is appointed will have to face that first of all and that means sales as well as signings. Why was Paul Pogba not offloaded when he might have generated a fee? Why are Donny van de Beek, Eric Bailly, Juan Mata, Alex Telles and Diogo Dalot at the club if there was no place for them in Solskjær’s plans?

If Rangnick can address this glaring weakness at the back, United should duly rise up the Premier League table, but the longer term squad restructuring is the bigger issue awaiting him and the next permanent appointment

StattoBets Dave Monthly Subscription

Stattobets write ups, analysis and bets are available to monthly subscribers.

Monthly subs are £50 a month and can be cancelled at any time. You can sign up here. 

Betting Emporium results

The detailed results page has been updated on 1^st September as have the spreadsheets with the detailed bets. They can be found by clicking RESULTS

If you bet £10 per point on every recommended bet since launch you would be winning + £52,096.80 All bets have an ROI +2.66%

A £4000 bank betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth would now be worth £56,096.80 a 1302% increase 

The Road to Riches: Weekend of 27th-28th November

Coming up this weekend

• Horse Racing Over the jumps at Bangor, Doncaster, Newbury and Newcastle and on the all-weather at Wolverhampton
• Football, Premier League fixtures include Chelsea v Manchester United
• Golf, The Hero World Challenge on the USPGA and the South African Open on the European Tour
• NFL Week 12

Free tip

The Ladbrokes Trophy at Newbury (3pm Saturday) by Neil Channing

Regular readers will know how excited I am to see a 21-runner handicap where bookmakers are offering a very generous 1/4 1234 or 1/5th 123456 which are both very fair and about equivalent. If you can get the 1/5th 1234567 that a couple of firms offer then that is even better. If you have been concentrating on other previews I've done you'll know I'm always keen to stress that we must be careful not to get great each-way terms but then to give up our advantage by taking a price that is way lower than the Betfair win market, which gives us a good idea of the "true price" once it becomes liquid. For that reason I always suggest the need to avoid the favourite/longshot bias trap and so I'll focus on the horses at under 25/1 and that gives us just nine to look at.

Tantalising

A tantalising Six Nations awaits after the conclusion of the Autumn Internationals in which the Northern Hemisphere teams won 7 games and the Rugby Championship 5, the highlight result of which was undoubtedly Ireland beating the All Blacks where only ferocious New Zealand defence prevented a bigger defeat by the more physical hosts. If they had won by 30 points you wouldn’t have been surprised.

Under previous coach Joe Schmidt Ireland were successful but in a very pragmatic style, using the kicking game and territory to beat opponents but usually coming up short against the very best. Under Andy Farrell there are now signs of a more expansive game which you could see during the summer series with a few off-loads though they weren’t firing fully with it. Add in a fierce defence of their own and a lot of depth…against New Zealand the likes of O’Mahoney, Murray and Beirne didn’t make the starting side.

The odds for the Six Nations Championship at the time of writing are as follows:

France 13/8

England 9/4

Ireland 9/2

Wales 8/1

Scotland 10/1

Italy 1000/1

Ireland are not going to be an easy out for anyone, France put 40 points on New Zealand and are peaking with a superb young side, England despite being in a mini-rebuilding phase beat South Africa, Wales are a big price for a side that are defending champions, won four games out of five in 2021 and scored 20 tries and Scotland have a lot of talent, probably not Championship winners but capable of winning 2-3 games.

Perhaps the only thing we can be confident about at this stage is that there is unlikely to be a Grand Slam, already an odds-on bet in ante-post markets

StattoBets Dave Monthly Subscription

Stattobets write ups, analysis and bets are available to monthly subscribers.

Monthly subs are £50 a month and can be cancelled at any time. You can sign up here. 

Betting Emporium results

The detailed results page has been updated on 1^st September as have the spreadsheets with the detailed bets. They can be found by clicking RESULTS

If you bet £10 per point on every recommended bet since launch you would be winning + £52,096.80 All bets have an ROI +2.66%

A £4000 bank betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth would now be worth £56,096.80 a 1302% increase 

The Road to Riches: Weekend of 20th-21st November

Coming up this weekend

• Horse Racing Over the jumps at Acot, Haydock and Huntingdon and on the all-weather at Lingfield and Wolverhampton
• Football, Premier League fixtures include Liverpool v Arsenal
• Rugby Union, Autumn Internationals including England v South Africa, Wales v Australia and France v New Zealand
• Formula One, the Qatar Grand Prix
• Golf, the Joburg Open on the European Tour

Free tip

Autumn Internationals England v South Africa 3.15pm Saturday

A slightly frustrating end to the England/Australia match for us last weekend as a last-minute interception try meant England covered the handicap, though the fact we still had a chance was down to previous profligacy in attack from the hosts, who were genuinely superior to the Australians in all phases of the game. This weekend England’s challenge moves up a notch for where they had a clear advantage against the Australian, in forward power particularly at scrum time, won’t be the case here.

South Africa are the most physical team in World rugby not just in the forwards but in midfield, with the finishing skill of Mapimpi and when he is fit Kolbe as the icing on the cake on the wings. England showed a lot of creativity against Australia, lining up Tuilagi on the wing yet he was popping up throughout the back line whilst Farrell would move to 10 allowing Marcus Smith to distribute from 12 on other occasions. The risk of that approach against the structure and power of the South Africans is that England may have players out of their best positions in a game where they will be expected to defend more.

South Africa are coming to the end of a long season. The effect of their comeback win in the Lions series was felt in two subsequent losses to Australia in the autumn but they are an efficient unit that offer no respite while England are a work in progress, part rebuilding with younger players. I think South Africa will be too streetwise for England who are without Farrell, George and Genge.

8 points South Africa to win by 1-5 points at 5/1 with BetfairSportsbook/PaddyPower, 9/2 Betfred and Skybet

8 points South Africa to win by 6-10 points at 6/1 with BetfairSportsbook/PaddyPower, 11/2 William Hill

Aussie rules

In one of the most important moments in Australian rugby history, Rugby Australia is on the cusp of moving to a more centralised model. After years of being stalled by bureaucracy and political factions, the governing body has managed to convince the states of the necessity of becoming “leaner and meaner”.

Rugby Australia will follow the lead of the Irish Rugby Football Union and New Zealand Rugby, who have for years operated under centralised programs. Rugby Australia will be involved in all the appointments of head coaches, strength and conditioning coaches, player signings as well as have greater control around sponsorship and finance. Rugby Australia is also intent on making sure member unions don’t warehouse players, starving other sides of talent in key positions.

Ahead of the 2019 World Cup, the IRFU brokered a deal to see rising playmaker Joey Carbery move from Leinster to Munster. The deal was done to ensure Carbery could continue his development wearing the No. 10 jersey where he was stuck behind British and Irish Lions playmaker Johnny Sexton at Leinster. By moving to a centralised program, RA would similarly be able to influence where players end up across the five Super Rugby franchisesl All Blacks party | 01:06

A case in point would be Jordan Petaia, where Wallabies selectors are keen to see him play fullback but, at this point, the prodigious talent has played predominantly on the wing or at outside centre with Jock Campbell instead preferred in the No. 15 jersey. But with Campbell not in the selection frame at the Wallabies, Petaia has been denied the chance to play in his preferred position.

StattoBets Dave Monthly Subscription

Stattobets write ups, analysis and bets are available to monthly subscribers.

Monthly subs are £50 a month and can be cancelled at any time. You can sign up here. 

Betting Emporium results

The detailed results page has been updated on 1^st September as have the spreadsheets with the detailed bets. They can be found by clicking RESULTS

If you bet £10 per point on every recommended bet since launch you would be winning + £52,096.80 All bets have an ROI +2.66%

A £4000 bank betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth would now be worth £56,096.80 a 1302% increase 

The Road to Riches: Weekend of 13th-14th November

Coming up this weekend

• Horse Racing Over the jumps at Cheltenham, Uttoxeter, Wetherby and on the all-weather at Lingfield and Wolverhampton
• Football, World Cup Qualifying fixtures
• Cricket, The T20 World Cup final in Dubai
• Rugby Union, Autumn Internationals including England v Australia, Scotland v South Africa and Ireland v New Zealand
• Formula One, the Brazilian Grand Prix
• Golf, the RSM Classic on the USPGA and the DP World Tour Championship on the European Tour

Free tip

Autumn Internationals England v Australia 5.30pm Saturday

Last weekend Scotland edged a tight contest to claim a third consecutive victory over Australia and continue their winning start to the Autumn Nations Series. As a 15-13 implies defences were on top and Australia’s attack missed their absent Japanese-club contingent that had galvanised them in the rugby championship a month or two ago.

England meanwhile warmed up for more serious contests this Autumn with a convincing win over Tonga last weekend. The selections in these games and the upcoming Six Nations are Eddie Jones’ final revamps ahead of run to 2023 World cup with much anticipation over the introduction of Marcus Smith at fly half to accompany the introduction of a number of young backs alongside the return of Owen Farrell.

England have beaten Australia on the last seven occasions they have played but this should be a relatively close contest. Even allowing for their disappointment last weekend and some injuries inthe front row it is surprising to see Australia 9/2 outright and +12 points on the handicap here. England are going to have some growing pains, Australia will be stronger for last weekend

10 points Australia +13 points at Evens generally

Aa-rong

The NFL this week punished Green Bay Packers Quarterback and League MVP Aaron Rodgers not for lying about his COVID vaccine status but for breaking COVID protocols over Halloween. Rodgers might not be willing to receive the COVID vaccine, but he revealed this week that he’s injected himself with just about every conspiracy theory surrounding it.

Rodgers missed last Sunday’s game against the Kansas City Chiefs after being forced to sit out a mandatory 10-days for testing positive for COVID-19 but not being vaccinated against it. This kicked off a week that cratered his public persona following various anti-Vaxx media interviews and the league is looking into fining both Rodgers and asking the Packers to fine him as well over the Halloween party if it’s determined that COVID protocols were broken.

Under the jointly negotiated NFL-NFLPA COVID-19 protocols, which Rodgers strongly criticized saying “some of the rules are not based in science at all”, Rodgers was fined by the league for appearing mask-less at press conferences and attending a Halloween party with many teammates. The Packers themselves were fined $300,000 for violations of the NFL and NFL Players Association protocols, while Rodgers and Allen Lazard were each fined $14,650.

Rodgers has been adamant that the league knew about his vaccination status from the start, meaning the league was allowing Rodgers to make in-person appearances with the press despite unvaccinated players around the league being forced to use Zoom meetings for health and safety reasons.

If the league punishes Rodgers and the Packers now, the optics will once again make it appear as though the league only took action once things it already knew about became public knowledge. This would come on the heels of a similar situation in which the league knew about racist emails that were shared between Jon Gruden and current league executives but didn’t do anything until the emails were leaked to the public.

If they fine Rodgers, they will be going to war with one of it’s biggest stars who seems unafraid to kamikaze his career for the self-satisfaction of feeling like he won the argument.

StattoBets Dave Monthly Subscription

Stattobets write ups, analysis and bets are available to monthly subscribers.

Monthly subs are £50 a month and can be cancelled at any time. You can sign up here. 

Betting Emporium results

The detailed results page has been updated on 1^st September as have the spreadsheets with the detailed bets. They can be found by clicking RESULTS

If you bet £10 per point on every recommended bet since launch you would be winning + £52,096.80 All bets have an ROI +2.66%

A £4000 bank betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth would now be worth £56,096.80 a 1302% increase 

The Road to Riches: Weekend of 6th-7th November

Coming up this weekend

• Horse Racing Over the jumps at Aintree, Kelso and Wincanton, on the flat at Doncaster and on the all-weather at Chelmsford City
• Football, Premier League fixtures include Manchester United v Manchester City
• Cricket, The T20 World Cup matches include England v South Africa
• Rugby Union, the start of the Autumn Internationals including Wales v South Africa
• Formula One, the Mexican Grand Prix
• Golf, the Houston Open on the USPGA and the Dubai Championship on the European Tour
• Tennis, The ATP Finals in Milan

Free tip

Autumn Internationals Scotland v Australia 2.15pm Sunday

Scotland began their Autumn season beating Tonga 60-14 scoring ten tries. They now get Finn Russell, Stuart Hogg, Sam Skinner, Duhan van der Merwe, Rory Sutherland, Huw Jones, Chris Harris and Adam Hastings back and all could find themselves in the starting XV against an Australian side ranked world ranked number three who come here off the back of a much improved performance in the Rugby Championship. Under new coach Dave Rennie after three successive losses against New Zealand their last four results saw them record two wins against South Africa then two against Argentina.

Their squad, and in particular their backline, is packed with young players on an upward trajectory, although their preparations for this tour have been hampered by Japan-based players Quade Cooper, Samu Kerevi (both central to the improvement in form in late summer after their re-introduction to the side) and Sean McMahon withdrawing from the group and choosing club over country

Australia are 3 to 4 point favourites for the game and whilst I expect it to be an extremely competitive contest Australia should have too much for Scotland and I would expect them to win by up to two scores. I am "dutching" the two most likely, in my opinion, margins.

10 points Australia to win by 6-10 points at 5/1 with Betfred and William Hill 

10 points Australia to win by 11-15 points at 8/1 with Betfred and William Hill 

Autumn Internationals

The Autumn Rugby Internationals began last weekend. New Zealand remain a good side, South Africa have just beaten them in the Rugby Championship and with France improving and Australia reunited with some of their better overseas-based players the home unions face a tall order to get many positive results.

England after this weekend’s warm up against Tonga play South Africa and Australia this Autumn, both teams having been together through the last few months for Rugby Championship

The fifth-place finish in last season’s Six Nations Championship and the subsequent Lions tour of South Africa made conditions ripe for a major squad overhaul and Eddie Jones in the selection for these games has picked players such as Marcus Smith, Adam Radwan, Max Malins, Freddie Steward and some other promising young backs who have impressed in the Premiership with a view to accelerating their progress to the 2023 World Cup squad. Meanwhile Saracens trio Mako, Billy Vunipola, Jamie George along with Leicester Tigers fly-half George Ford were left out though Ford was subsequently reinstated because of an injury to Luke Cowan-Dickie.

There is more than enough time to blend together a new team with a fresh style of play and in many ways this is when Jones comes into his own, when the clock is ticking. Short term results may not be good, but the pay-off may come in 2023 and beyond.

StattoBets Dave Monthly Subscription

Stattobets write ups, analysis and bets are available to monthly subscribers.

Monthly subs are £50 a month and can be cancelled at any time. You can sign up here. 

Betting Emporium results

The detailed results page has been updated on 1^st September as have the spreadsheets with the detailed bets. They can be found by clicking RESULTS

If you bet £10 per point on every recommended bet since launch you would be winning + £52,096.80 All bets have an ROI +2.66%

A £4000 bank betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth would now be worth £56,096.80 a 1302% increase