Weekly Articles "Road to Riches" by Rich 'Tighty' Prew
The Road to Riches Weekend of 18th-19th February
Coming up this weekend
- Horse Racing Over the jumps at Ascot, Haydock and Wincanton and on the all-weather at Lingfield and Newcastle
- Football Premier League Fixtures include Newcastle v Liverpool.
- Cricket the first test match between New Zealand and England in Tauranga continues
- Tennis ATP Opens in Marseille, Qatar and Rio
- Golf The Honda Classic on the USPGA and the Indian Open on the DP World Tour
The Cheltenham Festival
Neil’s package of selections for the Cheltenham Festival in mid-March costs £199 and you can subscribe here
Free tip
Gallagher Premiership Bath v London Irish 3pm Saturday
Two sides in the bottom half of the table meeting in the Six Nations break weekend. Bath with only 4 wins from their 12 games sit second bottom whilst London Irish have just the five wins from 13 games, good enough for 7th
Bath finished 13th last season and appointed a new coach Johan Van Der Graan from South Africa via Munster. Despite considerable investment in overhauling the squad, improvements were limited in the first half of the season but form has picked up either side of Christmas. Going into the last game at Sale they had won four of their last six Premiership matches and then only lost to Sale 30-27 to a last minute try having been down to 13 men in the second half. They have the third best defensive record in the division and are getting healthier. With the squad supplemented by ex-Worcester players Ollie Lawrence and Ted Hill they’ll be hopeful of climbing a few places through until May.
London Irish finished 8th last season and have some notable results recently. In their last game they beat Harlequins 42-24 and beat Saracens too before a disappointing Champions Cup where they were bundled out of the pool stages with just the one draw in four matches.
With Bath improving and strong defensively, at home they are 8/13 outright and three-point handicap favourites but the value is Irish outright at 11/8 and 6/4 in a place
10 points London Irish to beat Bath at 6/4 Betfair Sportsbook, 13/10 Bet365, BetVictor, Ladbrokes/Coral
Transition
Test cricket is inexorably transitioning to a two-tier system with the big three – India, Australia and England on full schedules and the remainder of the teams playing much less long format cricket. As an example South Africa are scheduled to play just 28 Tests in the 2023–2027 cycle. South Africa don't have a three-match Test series now for two years and have gone from four and five-Test series to three and now to two. There are other examples too. Such is the crowded nature of the cricket calendar that the New Zealand England series just starting is only two matches. There's no way that many countries can build or sustain a Test cricket system when your national team is playing so little
There is real interest in franchise leagues now, and the white-ball game. Smaller countries are always going to be more affected because it really is about the economic equation in the end, and most countries now have franchise leagues. It's really tough for the smaller Test-playing nations to rely on the Test game to survive as the financial support from the ICC to host series is insufficient and the cost of running series exceeds revenue from them given waning demand for tickets
This disproportionately affects sides in addition to South Africa such as the West Indies, Sri Lanka, New Zealand and Bangladesh whose governing boards don’t have the resources that the Big three have. It also affects countries like Zimbabwe, Afghanistan, Ireland, Scotland, Netherlands who want to play Tests but cannot because the cash is not there to host, so the growth of the game is being affected.
The ICC needs to make Test cricket a viable proposition for all Test-playing nations, otherwise we will end up watching three international teams – Australia, England and India – playing Test cricket against each other.
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The detailed results page has been updated on 1st January 2023. They can be found by clicking RESULTS
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A £4000 bank betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth £61,936 a 1448% increase
The Road to Riches Weekend of 11th-12th February
Coming up this weekend
- Horse Racing Over the jumps at Newbury, Uttoxeter and Warwick and on the all-weather at Lingfield and Wolverhampton
- Football Premier League Fixtures include West Ham v Chelsea and Leeds v Manchester United.
- Rugby Union the second round of the Six Nations Championship
- Tennis ATP Opens in Rotterdam and Delray Beach
- Golf The Genesis Invitational on the USPGA and the Thailand Classic on the DP World Tour
The Cheltenham Festival
Neil’s package of selections for the Cheltenham Festival in mid-March costs £199 and you can subscribe here
Free tip
Six Nations Round 2 Ireland v France 2.15pm Saturday
A match that has long been identified as the key game for the destination of this year’s championship and billed as a grand slam decider.
Last weekend Ireland opened their campaign with a 34-10 over Wales scoring 27 points in the first 25 minutes and leading 27-3 at half time. They dominated the go-forward phases and the contact area. Ireland are effectively taking Leinster's team and sticking it into an Ireland jersey and playing exactly the same way. With the intricacy of their attack and the understanding they have no surprise they have early cohesion, compared to other teams.
This was achieved without scrum-half Gibson-Park and tight head Furlong, two key player losses that persist for this weekend but Ireland is a squad with depth.
France won in Rome 29-24 against a much-improved Italy side. Their bonus point win was their 14th in a row, despite turning in their most ill-disciplined and disjointed performance in ages. They conceded 18 penalties in Rome the most ever by a Shaun Edwards-coached side in 20 years. I’d expect them to be much better this weekend with the rust knocked off them last weekend.
Where Ireland had the better of the close quarters against Wales this will be a huge contest, and likely to be a very close game. Under Andy Farrell Ireland are the world’s top ranked side but they’ve yet to beat France including when France won when last in Dublin, 15-13 in 2021
Home advantage should enable Ireland to win a close one probably closer than Ireland 4/9 France 2/1 implies. Ireland are 5 point favourites on the handicap
10 Points Ireland to win by 1-7 points at 11/4 Betfair Sportsbook/Paddy Power 5/2 BetVictor
Crossroads
Barely a week goes by during the rugby season without some controversy on the disciplinary front. Just about the one consistent factor right now seems to be inconsistency. Controversy with refereeing, poor tackle technique and foul play are all regularly under the microscope. In particular there has been huge debate over the contrasting way incidents of head contact are being handled. The RFU has contributed to the uncertainty by issuing guidelines first for the amateur game of tackles only below waist height, guidance reversed quickly in response to the uproar that followed.
Yet again, the game finds itself at a crossroads following events of recent weeks. The ever- increasing focus on dementia cases and litigation puts an even greater onus on the powers-that-be to find a way of reducing head contact and concussion.
The game is still dealing with the legacy of years of rugby league-influenced coaching where the emphasis was on upright, ball-and-all tackles designed to prevent defence-splitting offloads. That became ingrained in the sport and moving away from that is clearly proving a challenge. Yet it’s that technique which is behind much of the concerning contact we see whether it be head-on-head or shoulder on head.
So the game needs to decide whether it is really serious about stamping it out and getting players to lower their tackle height. There is an argument that the only way to change behaviour once and for all is to have a zero tolerance approach when it comes to head contact as a result of upright tackling.
At present, there is perhaps too much focus on mitigation where we look for factors that allow sanction to be reduced to a yellow card. In particular, the issue of force and the difference between dominant and absorbing tackles has taken centre stage.
Yet judging force is such a subjective thing and even if a tackler isn’t smashing into an opponent, significant damage can result from a collision. By the same token, a lack of intent or an impact being accidental doesn’t change the scale of the impact, so really shouldn’t come into the disciplinary process.
At the moment, contention and confusion abounds. We need a much simpler and more straightforward framework when it comes to head contact, with fewer caveats, and there needs to be clarity and consistency, moving away from mitigation and enforcing the kind of change in behaviour which saw the spear tackle eradicated.
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Betting Emporium results
The detailed results page has been updated on 1st January 2023. They can be found by clicking RESULTS
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A £4000 bank betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth £61,936 a 1448% increase
The Road to Riches Weekend of 4th-5th February
Coming up this weekend
- Horse Racing Over the jumps at Musselburgh, Sandown and Wetherby and on the all-weather at Lingfield and Kempton Park
- Football Premier League Fixtures include Tottenham v Manchester City.
- Rugby Union the start of the Six Nations Championship
- Tennis ATP Opens in Cordoba, Dallas and Montpellier
- Golf The Phoenix Open on the USPGA and the Singapore Classic on the DP World Tour
The Cheltenham Festival
Neil’s package of selections for the Cheltenham Festival in mid-March costs £199 and you can subscribe here
Free tip
Six Nations Round 1: Wales v Ireland Saturday 2.15pm
Last year in Dublin Ireland beat Wales 29-7 on their way to the Triple Crown. This game should be much closer.
Home defeats against Italy and Georgia underpinned Wayne Pivac’s departure less than a year out from the World Cup, so returning Wales coach Warren Gatland has little time to try and turn things around for Wales. As most of the squad are familiar with him and his style (strong defence, good kicking game, fierce competition at the breakdown) then that should be relatively straightforward.
Wales do though remain underpowered in the forwards though, and when up against teams such as France, England and Ireland, it will likely be hard to compete in the power stakes within contact or at the set-piece. Their key players are also beyond their peak years too. Ken Owens is 36 yet still Wales' best hooker, second row Alun Wyn-Jones is now 37, while back-row Justin Tipuric is 33, fly-half Dan Biggar is 33, and full-back Leigh Halfpenny is 34. For Gatland and these players, its eyes on the Autumn World Cup then no doubt a more substantial overhaul for 2024 onwards but for now though, this is a team with 952 test caps and very streetwise.
Many of the squad come into the Championship in good form. Fifteen Ospreys players have made the squad. The Welsh regions have been very poor in recent seasons, but this year the Ospreys have picked up landmark Heineken Champions Cup victories at Montpellier and Leicester Tigers, as well as beating the French side at home to book a Round of 16 spot.
Ireland won 4 out of 5 games last year and are favourites for the Championship this. World ranked number one after winning a Test series in New Zealand last year, then toppling South Africa and Australia they of course draw on the players from the pre-eminent European side Leinster with key players including lock Tadhg Beirne, Openside Josh van der Flier who was named World Player of the Year for 2022 after a prolonged period of great performances and Jonny Sexton, still the best fly-half in the country though he comes into the tournament fresh from injury and without a prep.
Ireland should win of course and are best priced 4/11 to do so, Wales 2/1 up to +7 on the handicap. I don’t think the winning margin will beyond a score or at most 10 points though. Gatland will have Wales set up to play territory, to compete at the breakdown and spoil
12 points Ireland to win by 1-12 points at 8/5 Betfred 6/4 Bet365
England won only one of the last 17 Test matches that they played under Joe Root, culminating in an 1-0 series defeat last spring in the Caribbean. Under their new skipper and coach, however, it's been nine wins and only one defeat in 10 for England with constant attack and bold declarations. Last summer in Birmingham, England chased down 378 to beat India by seven wickets. Earlier in the season targets that previously would have daunted them against New Zealand were also overhauled at Lord's, Trent Bridge and Headingley. “Bazball” faces its greatest test this summer in a home Ashes series.
What other examples have there been in sport in which a change of style has transformed results? Thanks in part to Hollywood perhaps the best known is the baseball side the Oakland Athleticss. In 2001 they finished second in the American League West. They lost a trio of star players. Expectations were gloomy. Using 'Moneyball' techniques Billy Beane signed a number of 'under-the-radar' free agent players; they embarked on a winning sequence of 20 successive games, and finished top of their division that year.
Then of course there are the “Cinderella” stories such as Leicester City, Premier League champions in 2015/16 under Claudio Ranieri, after finishing 14th the previous season and Greece unexpectedly winning the 2004 European Football Championships.
Of course, there is work to do for the England cricket team. This summer's Ashes is followed by a trip down under 2025/26. Until it's adopted by other countries it won't be a game changer outside this present English regime. Only time will tell whether it's a freak run of results or it assumes a legacy across the wider game.
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Betting Emporium results
The detailed results page has been updated on 1st January 2023. They can be found by clicking RESULTS
If you bet £10 per point on every recommended bet since launch you would be winning + £61,936 All bets have an ROI +2.91%
A £4000 bank betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth £61,936 a 1448% increase
The Road to Riches Weekend of 28th-29th January
Coming up this weekend
- Horse Racing Over the jumps at Ascot, Haydock and Taunton and on the all-weather at Lingfield and Wolverhampton
- Football The Fourth round of the FA Cup
- NFL The Conference Championships.
- Cricket the One Day International series between South Africa and England continues in Bloemfontein on Sunday
- Tennis the Australian Open concludes
- Golf The Pebble Beach Pro-Am on the USPGA and the Ras-Al-Khaimah Desert Classic on the DP World Tour
The Cheltenham Festival
Neil’s package of selections for the Chelteham Festival in mid-March costs £199 and you can subscribe HERE
Free tip
The 2023 Six Nations
In the key game in last year’s Six Nations France beat Ireland 30-24 in Paris on their way to a Grand Slam title. It was the only game that Ireland lost.
This season once again the two sides are the favourites, it’s 9/2 bar the front two. However in 2023 the schedule reverses. Ireland the two toughest looking games at home, England and France and France have three games away.
Added spice to the tournament is provided by the return of Warren Gatland as Wales coach and Steve Borthwick replacing Eddie Jones at England.
With Ireland at home to France and likely to be narrow favourites for the game in which both sides are likely to be favourites to beat any other side in the competition its tempting to consider their prospects for the Grand Slam. However a Grand Slam is available at 3/1 currently, and Evens no Grand Slam. Why might that be? Well firstly Ireland travel to Cardiff first up, a more formidable prospect than it might have been a few weeks ago with a change of coach and grittier team selection
Secondly every team is going to have to contend with extra variance on results from the incidence of yellow and red cards and new tackling laws.
Thirdly Wales should be much more competitive, Italy should win a game or two too if their improvement continues as it did at the back end of last year’s tournament, so we could see a very close championship
In the outright market prices are as follows
Ireland 11/8
France 13/8
England 9/2
Wales 14/1
Scotland 25/1
Italy 500/1
Ireland look good favourites to me with the Ireland/France game in Dublin clearly the key
16 points Ireland to win the Six Nations Championship at 11/8 generally
Spicy
Warren Gatland is back as Wales head coach ahead of the Six Nations, while Eddie Jones has returned to lead Australia following his England departure. Wales and Australia are both in Pool C for this year's Rugby World Cup and meet in Lyon on September 24. Intriguingly both sides are in the same half of the World Cup draw as England, and the consensus expectation would be that one of the two sides would meet England in the Quarter-Finals depending on who finishes first and second in their groups, with now added spice to both potential encounters.
2022 was a hard year for the Wallabies. In the July test series against England, they won the opening game in Perth 30-28, but went on to lose the series losing 17-25 in Brisbane and 17-21 in Sydney. In their opening Rugby Championship match against Argentina, they were down 16-10 at halftime but made a comeback to win 26-41 in Mendoza, only for them to get thumped by the Pumas 48-17 the next week. They then dominated the Springboks 25-17 in Adelaide, but got beaten the next week in Sydney by the Boks (8-24) Then in September the Wallabies dropped to their lowest-ever World Rugby ranking after losing to the All Blacks in Melbourne. The team fell to ninth on World Rugby's rankings ladder. They sunk even lower after losing 40-14 to the All Blacks at Eden Park. The Wallabies then managed a close win against Scotland at Murrayfield (15-16) but went on to lose to France (30-29), a stunning loss to Italy (28-27) and to world no. 1 Ireland (13-10). The Wallabies were down 34-13 to Wales after 58 minutes of their last game of the season, but pulled off another comeback to finish a woeful season on a high (34-39) and are currently the sixth ranked side in the World, up from their low of 9th in the middle of last year.
Jones previously coached the Wallabies from 2001 to 2005, guiding them to the 2003 World Cup final where they were beaten by England, and has been swiftly re-appointed on a five-year contract after his England exit in place of Dave Rennie.
Of course ten months is not much time to do root and branch reform but no doubt there will be overtures to rugby league players to join the squad and selection changes in time for the Autumn
Gatland enjoyed a hugely successful 12-year spell as Wales head coach from 2007 to 2019, overseeing four Six Nations triumphs and three Grand Slams during that period, as well as finishing runners-up twice. He then returned home to take up a position with Super Rugby outfit Chiefs along with leading the British and Irish Lions on their 2021 tour of South Africa, but the door opened for his return after Wayne Pivac was sacked in December after a disappointing 2021 which included defeats to Italy and Georgia.
Already in his squad selection for the upcoming Six Nations you can see clues as to the approach with a bigger team with more ball winners in the back row. At its core, Wales are an experienced team for whom the World Cup will be last hurrah for the likes of Wyne-Jones, Faletau, Biggar, North and Halfpenny. With that experience and Gatland’s knowledge a quick fix towards at least competitiveness in 2023 is very likely.
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Betting Emporium results
The detailed results page has been updated on 1st January 2023. They can be found by clicking RESULTS
If you bet £10 per point on every recommended bet since launch you would be winning + £61,936 All bets have an ROI +2.91%
A £4000 bank betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth £61,936 a 1448% increase
The Road to Riches Weekend of 21st-22nd January
Coming up this weekend
- Horse Racing Over the jumps at Ascot, Haydock and Taunton and on the all-weather at Lingfield and Wolverhampton
- Football Premier League fixtures include Liverpool v Chelsea and Arsenal v Manchester United
- NFL The Play-Offs Divisional round.
- Rugby Union European Champions Cup Pool Matches
- Tennis the Australian Open continues
- Golf The Farmers Insurance Open on the USPGA and the Dubai Desert Classic on the DP World Tour
The Cheltenham Festival
Neil’s package of selections for the Chelteham Festival in mid-March costs £199 and you can subscribe here
Free tip
European Champions Cup Rugby Pool B
Ulster v Sale 8pm Saturday
The Final round of pool matches this weekend and for both of these sides this is the last chance to scrape into the top 8 of each Pool and on into the last sixteen. Both are currently outside the qualifying positions. Ulster have lost their three games picking up three bonus points. Sale won one game and have 5 points from that win. With 5 points on offer for a bonus point win a high scoring winner of this game may make the top 8 depending on other results.
Ulster have now lost six of their last seven games in this competition, though it has to be said that the fixtures for both these sides this year have been very tough, in a mini-group with tournament champions La Rochelle and European powerhouses Toulouse. That’s been reflected in results, with Ulster’s losses of 39-0 to Sale, 36-29 to La Rochelle in Dublin and then 7-3 in a resilient performance the reverse fixture in terrible conditions last weekend
Meanwhile Sale have also had it tough. After their Ulster win they lost 45-19 to Toulouse and 27-5 in the reverse game last weekend, down to 14 men for much of the game.
Domestically Sale are 2nd in the Gallagher Premiership having won 9 of their 12 games. A strong side. Ulster meanwhile are 4th in the URC with 7 wins from their 11 matches. Whilst the competition doesn’t have the depth of some of the other European leagues it is strong at the top end with Leinster, Munster and the South African sides.
The game elsewhere in the Pool between Clermont and the Stormers finishes just before this match starts so the sides will know the situation as they take to the field. If the Stormers win as expected, this becomes a winner take all game. If Clermont do the upset, the Ulster are out and Sale need a bonus point win to have a chance.
The weather forecast for Belfast on Saturday is rough, rain and snow so this may be primarily a tight battle in the forwards but Sale are in better form and should be capable of winning narrowly here and we can get up to 2/1 on that outcome
12 points Sale to win at 2/1 Betfred, 15/8 generally
Globetrotters
England may be playing only six one-day internationals (in South Africa and Bangladesh), three T20s (Bangladesh) and two Test matches (New Zealand) between now and the end of May but their players will be involved in the five T20 domestic tournaments taking place during that period as the franchise format proliferates around the world game with action in Australia, the UAE, South Africa, Pakistan and India over the next five months.
The Australian Big Bash League runs until February 4th and features Sam Billings, Alex Hales, Chris Jordan and James Vince.
The new South African franchise league, the SAT20, is underway running unti the middle of February. Jofra Archer has returned to competitive action for the first time since May 2021 and the tournament also features Sam Curran, Olly Stone, Reece Topley, Harry Brook, Jos Buttler, Jason Roy, Will Jacks and Adil Rashid,
The inaugural UAE T20 tournament (the ILT20) is scheduled at the same time as the new South African tournament. Joe Root plays for the Dubai Capitals, having been rested for England’s one-day series against South Africa and the tournament also features Moeen Ali, Ben Duckett, Rehan Ahmed and Dan Lawrence.
The Pakistan Super League is being held until March 19. Among those scheduled to play are Hales, Ali, Vince, Brook, Rashid, Roy and Will Smeed.
All this ahead of the IPL featuring 15 English players from the end of March to the end of May which allows England’s Test players to return before the first Test of the summer against Ireland at Lord’s, starting on June 1.
A lucrative time to be a T20 cricketer with the proliferation of leagues across the cricket playing world, with still questions longer term about player workload, availability for longer form cricket.
StattoBets Dave Monthly Subscription - Soccer - Tennis - Darts
Stattobets write ups, analysis and bets are available to monthly subscribers.
Results = points bet 26860 profit +1132.47 ROI +4.22% Full details here
Monthly subs are £50 a month and can be cancelled at any time. You can sign up here.
Betting Emporium results
The detailed results page has been updated on 1st January 2023. They can be found by clicking RESULTS
If you bet £10 per point on every recommended bet since launch you would be winning + £61,936 All bets have an ROI +2.91%
A £4000 bank betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth £61,936 a 1448% increase
