Weekly Articles "Road to Riches" by Rich 'Tighty' Prew
The Road to Riches: Weekend of 8th-9th January
Coming up this weekend
- Horse Racing Over the jumps at Newcastle, Sandown, Wincanton and on the all-weather at Kempton and Lingfield
- Football, the FA Cup 3rd Round
- Cricket, the fifth Ashes Test in Hobart next Friday
- NFL Week 18
- Golf On the USPGA the Sony Open in Hawaii
- Tennis ATP Events in Adelaide and Sydney
Free tip
Squad rotation and differing priorities are always a feature of FA Cup teams that take the pitch for Premier League teams and this season with Omnicron/COVID and many re-arranged fixtures pending the challenges are more complex still. At least there are no replays in the 3rd/4th rounds this year. This column takes this weekend of this year to try and identify some ante-post value for the FA Cup and last season reached the semi-finals with Southampton at 33-1.
The aim is to avoid those Premier League teams that might be in a relegation battle, on the grounds that if push comes to shove the FA Cup will be secondary in importance to Premier League games. Also avoid the top end of the market. As in every other year the “big six” are 16-1 or shorter.
Instead look at sides each way that are mid table to lower half of the top ten and, whilst any selection is going to need luck with the draw in later rounds, at least a favourable third round draw preferable at home. My shortlist before starting writing, with current odds in brackets, was as follows
West Ham (22-1)
Wolves (40-1)
Brighton (33-1)
Aston Villa (33-1)
Crystal Palace (50-1)
I think the stand-out is Wolves, who helped by one of the stand-out summer purchases goalkeeper Jose Sa have only conceded 14 goals in 19 Premier League games, the second best defensive record in the league behind Man City. A very solid side, with Sheffield United at home in the third round on Sunday at 2pm. Wolves of course will rotate, and aren’t prolific in front of goal but 40-1 seems fair to me for this type of side who could go deep
10 points each way (1/2 1,2) Wolverhampton Wanderers to win the FA Cup at 40-1 with SkyBet, 33/1 generally
The Six Nations is coming
2022 appears to be the most competitive Six Nations in a long time, and the next pre-cursor to 2023 World Cup. For England the attacking ambition, pace and talent in the domestic Premiership is at an all-time high. The top teams play fast, open rugby with plenty of width and try-scoring. Whilst the space in Test rugby is more limited, England beat South Africa and Australia in the autumn by getting outside them and attacking space and major challenge for the upcoming tournament will be to continue this in what is usually mixed weather and tight games.
At the moment, England’s first choice back row trio average a try only every 26 Test matches, well short of the very best which is a key area for team selection. Courtney Lawes, Sam Underhill and Tom Curry are the best defensive trio but it will be interesting to see who is selected with 2023 around the corner. England also need to find a centre alternative to the frequently injured Manu Tuilagi.
One bright spot will be the continued emergence of fly half Marcus Smith and we should see Eddie Jones continuing to use positional fluidity. Expect to see only one wing selected, with three centres and the use of Slade at 15 more often than in the three-quarters and allow Smith to ease into leading the team’s attacking structures.
In this Six Nations England have 3 of their 5 matches away from home including Scotland, who beat England away last year, first up and favourites France at the end of the tournament. 9/4 England looks skinny to me and there is more value probably around Ireland 9/2 and Wales 6/1 (not sure which yet though!) if opposing France who look to have matured into solid favourites in the last two years.
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Betting Emporium results
The detailed results page has been updated on 1st September as have the spreadsheets with the detailed bets. They can be found by clicking RESULTS
If you bet £10 per point on every recommended bet since launch you would be winning + £52,096.80 All bets have an ROI +2.66%
A £4000 bank betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth would now be worth £56,096.80 a 1302% increase
The Road to Riches: Weekend of 1st-2nd January
Happy New Year to all readers.
Coming up this weekend
- Horse Racing Over the jumps at Exeter, Cheltenham, Fakenham and Musselburgh and on the all-weather at Southwell
- Football, Premier League fixtures include Arsenal v Manchester City and Chelsea v Liverpool
- Cricket, the fourth Ashes Test in Sydney
- NFL Week 17
- Tennis ATP Events in Adelaide and Sydney
Free tip
Ashes fourth test, Sydney, starting Tuesday 4th January
England capitulated in Melbourne and now move to Sydney with the Ashes lost, morale at rock bottom and a 5-0 defeat looming, if COVID allows the series to be completed. The pitch in Melbourne was atypically green and England were put into bat and yet again their top order struggled. This pitch accounted for Marnus Labuschagne who scored 1 in Australia’s only innings, a rare failure.
So far in this series Labuschagne has scored 74,103 and 51 and 1 and Sydney’s pitch should be more to his liking, it typically is good for batting and turns later in contests.
First introduced to test cricket as a concussion substitute for Steve Smith in the 2019 Lords Test, by the end of that year he was the leading run scorer in test cricket. He now has 2,114 runs in 21 Test matches at an average of over 60 with six centuries and twelve fifties. In Adelaide he became the fourth fastest player in Test cricket to 2,000 runs.
In seven Test matches against England, Labuschagne has scored 582 runs with one century and six fifties. Against this England side, looking deflated, he should be able to resume form.
10 points Marnus Labuschagne Top Australian run-scorer at 5/2 with Betfair Sportsbook and Paddy Power with more firms to follow
A long haul
If you can't bat, you will not win games of cricket and England have barely batted in the first three Ashes Tests with totals of 147, 297, 236, 192, 185 and 68. In 29 innings in 2021, England have failed to pass 200 14 times and they have scored no less than 54 ducks and have lost 9 of 15 Tests. England's top seven batting, excluding Joe Root, averages 22 so far this series. Joe Root and Dawid Malan were the only two players to average more than 30 with the bat for England in 2021.
There are a number of short-term reasons why the tour has not going well, largely down to lack of preparation where COVID concerns and a crowded international calendar led them to intra-squad practice matches in the weeks before the series, then there has been no opportunity for match practice between Tests for players to find form and players have gone into the Tests underprepared but of course the main debates in the aftermath of a meek loss surround the more structural problems which look a long way off from being solved.
In no particular order: A County Championship schedule played at the start and end of seasons in mixed weather and on poor pitches, a governing body that prioritises the white ball game and more and more franchise competitions worldwide that the best players prioritise rather than spending time in England honing their long form skills are the most often mentioned factors but beyond that there are cyclical problems (England have not produced a replacement for Strauss who retired in 2012 let alone Cook who retired in 2018) and structural problems based around coaching and batting lack of technique, where a lot of players are unorthodox and also lack the temperament to bat for long periods as test match cricket demands. There are also few signs that the international coaches take the players coming through from county cricket and improve them, partly because the schedule is so crowded
Nor can it be said that there are many stand-out candidates that haven’t been picked yet, suggesting this is a malaise for the long haul and not merely a cyclical problem. For example Rory Burns had the best record in county cricket of any domestic opener over the last five years. In the test team since 2019 he averages 31 and specifically 19 against seam bowling. The cupboard is bare!
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Stattobets write ups, analysis and bets are available to monthly subscribers.
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Betting Emporium results
The detailed results page has been updated on 1st September as have the spreadsheets with the detailed bets. They can be found by clicking RESULTS
If you bet £10 per point on every recommended bet since launch you would be winning + £52,096.80 All bets have an ROI +2.66%
A £4000 bank betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth would now be worth £56,096.80 a 1302% increase
The Road to Riches: Weekend of 25th-26th December
Happy Christmas to all readers.
Coming up this weekend
- Horse Racing On Boxing Day over the jumps at Fontwell, Huntingdon, Kempton, Market Rasen, Sedgefield, Wetherby and Wincanton and on the all-weather at Wolverhampton
- Football, Premier League fixtures include Liverpool v Leeds and Manchester City v Leicester City
- Cricket, the third Ashes Test in Melbourne
- NFL Week 16
Free tip
Ashes third test, Melbourne starting Boxing Day
At 2-0 down and with the Ashes series almost lost a clear culprit is England’s batting, especially in first innings compounded by two questionable team selections, a poor toss decision in Brisbane and multiple dropped catches. At the MCG starting in the early hours of Boxing Day it will probably be a conventional case of win the toss and bat and if that decision falls to Australia the evidence of the series so far is that Australia will make hay with Marus Labuschagne batting at three one of the major threats.
So far in this series Labuschagne has scored 74,103 and 51. He has been in early in two of the three innings to date, had a bit of luck in Adelaide but there is nothing to suggest won’t continue to churn out runs this series and beyond.
First introduced to test cricket as a concussion substitute for Steve Smith in the 2019 Lords Test, by the end of that year he was the leading run scorer in test cricket. He now has 2,113 runs in 20 Test matches at an average of 62.14 withs six centuries and twelve fifties. In Adelaide he became the fourth fastest player in Test cricket to 2,000 runs.
In six Test matches against England, Labuschagne has scored 581 runs at an average of 58.10 with one century and six fifties. Against this England side, looking deflated, he shows no sign of slowing down.
10 points Marnus Labuschagne Top Australian run-scorer at 23/10 with Netfair Sportsbook and Paddy Power, 2/1 Betfred with more firms to follow
Running, running….
The NFL is cyclical, and after years of personnel moves and defensive schemes focused on stopping the pass, the NFL's top rushing attacks are having a great season.
As the 2021 season has worn on, the NFL has seen run games surge on a stage set for outsized passing numbers. We’ve seen from the Patriots, Eagles, Colts, Ravens, 49ers and Titans, too teams leaning on the run game winning on the ground, and for an easy-to-understand reason.
Most teams, in 2021, are built to throw the ball and stop other teams from throwing it. A minority of teams are built on the offensive and defensive lines and carry full backs and multiple blocking tight ends on their roster and have begun to dominate the smaller teams especially as season has worn on.
The Eagles have rushed for 200 yards as a team four times, and all four have come since Halloween. The Patriots have gone for more than 150 yards three times, and all three were after the end of October. Likewise, the 49ers’ top three games of the year are all over 155 yards and have come from November onwards as have the Colts’, with each of those games above 230 yards. The Titans’ top rushing number for the year, 270 yards (without Derrick Henry!), was during Thanksgiving week. The Ravens had a 247-yard day in early November.
Whilst the early draft picks will inevitably continue to be around skill positions involving passing the ball and on defense stopping the pass (cornerback, pass rusher) soon enough, other teams will be drafting run stoppers and road-grading offensive linemen earlier than they have done in recent years as the NFL continues its strategic, play-calling and drafting cycles.
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Stattobets write ups, analysis and bets are available to monthly subscribers.
Monthly subs are £50 a month and can be cancelled at any time. You can sign up here.
Betting Emporium results
The detailed results page has been updated on 1st September as have the spreadsheets with the detailed bets. They can be found by clicking RESULTS
If you bet £10 per point on every recommended bet since launch you would be winning + £52,096.80 All bets have an ROI +2.66%
A £4000 bank betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth would now be worth £56,096.80 a 1302% increase
The Road to Riches: Weekend of 18th-19th December
Coming up this weekend
- Horse Racing Over the jumps at Ascot, Haydock and Newcastle and on the all-weather at Lingfield and Wolverhampton
- Football, Premier League fixtures include Tottenham Hotspur v Liverpool
- Cricket, the second Ashes Test in Adelaide continues
- Rugby Union, the European Champions Cup
- NFL Week 15
Free tip
European Champions Cup Rugby 5.30pm Saturday
Glasgow Warriors v Exeter Chiefs
Glasgow Warriors were edged 20-13 by last season’s runners-up La Rochelle in their European Champions Cup opener leading briefly in the second half. They earned a losing bonus point and host Exeter Chiefs here needing to win to hope to qualify out of the pool for the knockout stages.
That will be a very tough task. Defending Premiership champions Exeter opened the pool thrashing Montpellier 42-6 at home and although their domestic record is not so strong this season having won six lost four games they have been hitting form, grinding out a recent win against Saracens for example.
Exeter should win but it is going to be a grind away from home against a pack containing several current Scottish Internationals in December weather.
11 points Glasgow Warriors +8 at 10/11 with William Hill and Coral/Ladbrokes
Root
In the first Ashes Test in Brisbane Joe Root scored 89 in the second innings finishing just short a first century on Australian soil (he still averaged 47 on England’s last Ashes tour) and set a new England record for most Test runs in a calendar year, with two tests remaining at Adelaide this week and Melbourne from Boxing Day.
So far in 25 test Innings in 2021 he has scored 1,544 runs with a high score of 228 at an average of 59.3 with 6 hundreds. The calendar year record is 1,788.
Overall Root’s test average is 50 with 23 hundreds and in ODIs his average is 51 in 142 innings. In 2021 the next highest England test run scorer is Burns with 492 which illustrates the problem: the rest of England’s batting order. England's collective batting average this year is currently 23.6, with seven centuries in 13 Tests. Away in Australia against a top bowling attack on good pitches, others apart from Root need to consistently come to the party to give England a shot at the sort of totals to make them competitive.
StattoBets Dave Monthly Subscription
Stattobets write ups, analysis and bets are available to monthly subscribers.
Monthly subs are £50 a month and can be cancelled at any time. You can sign up here.
Betting Emporium results
The detailed results page has been updated on 1st September as have the spreadsheets with the detailed bets. They can be found by clicking RESULTS
If you bet £10 per point on every recommended bet since launch you would be winning + £52,096.80 All bets have an ROI +2.66%
A £4000 bank betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth would now be worth £56,096.80 a 1302% increase
The Road to Riches: Weekend of 11th-12th December
Coming up this weekend
- Horse Racing Over the jumps at Cheltenham, Doncaster and Hereford and on the all-weather at Wolverhampton and Newcastle
- Football, Premier League fixtures include Liverpool v Aston Villa
- Cricket, the first Ashes Test in Brisbane continues
- Rugby Union, the European Champions Cup
- Formula One, the Abu Dhabi Grand Prix to conclude the season
- NFL Week 14
Free tip
European Champions Cup Rugby 3.15pm Saturday
Bordeaux-Begles v Leicester Tigers
This season’s European Cup competition, as last year in a changed format, has 24 sides in 2 pools with the top 4 in each advancing to the last 8.
Pool play will feature the Tier 1/top ranked teams playing Tier 4/bottom ranked teams in their pool (that are not from the same league) twice in a home and away manner, while the Tier 2 and 3 clubs will follow in a similar manner.
The four teams from each pool with the best points will qualify for the knockout stage. Teams finishing 5th through 8th after pool play will join the Challenge Cup at the round of 16 stage (joining eight qualifiers from the Challenge Cup pool stage) In total, eight weekends of play will be provided for, one less than in previous seasons.
Bordeaux are a tier 2 seed, currently sitting in second place in the French top 14 with 8 wins in their 11 matches to date. They were semi-finalists in this competition last year, losing 21-9 to eventual winners Toulouse. The side features French stars like Trinh-Duc, Picamoles, Woki plus the usual smattering of Southern Hemisphere imports helping them field a big strong forward pack
Leicester are a tier 3 seed this season but their vast improvement under Steve Borthwick means they are an unfortunate Tier 3 draw for tier 2 sides. Leicester have won 9 out of 9 in the Gallagher Premiership this season with a functional style based around a rumbling forward pack and the kicking of George Ford, the line up now augmented by a slew of young players that have emerged from the Academy system.
In this competition Four points are awarded for a win, two points for a draw, one attacking bonus point for scoring four or more tries in a match and one defensive bonus point for losing a match by seven points or fewer. This is going to be an arm wrestle, the Tigers best hope might be a loss by no more than one score and a losing bonus point, but it should be very close
15 points Leicester +4 at Evens with Bet365 and Betfred
Drive to Survive
F1 heads to the final Grand Prix of the season this weekend in Abu Dhabi after a fantastic season long battle for the driver’s title between Hamilton and Verstappen, now tied on points, which came to a head in the dramatic Saudi Arabian Grand Prix last weekend with crashes, overtakes, penalties and controversy galore.
F1 has struck lucky with a battle for the ages, but also deserves credit for a number of strategic moves under Liberty Media’s ownership that has allowed the sport to really capitalise on the current season, leading to massive viewing figures.
One of those is “Drive to Survive” the Netflix series about F1 now in its fourth season, has offered an intimate look into a notoriously secretive sport and, has drawn the American fans they have been eager to attract for years. The Mclaren CEO has said “People are going from ‘I’ve never watched a Formula 1 race in my life’ to ‘I’ll never miss a Formula 1 race again.’
Eight of the 10 Formula 1 teams agreed to be part of the first season, minus Ferrari and Mercedes. Missing the two most famous and successful teams did not stop the first season from being a success. Fans learned about the inner workings of the sport, the personalities, politics and pettiness. by the time Season 2 began filming, Ferrari and Mercedes had changed their minds.
“It showed me a new angle to attract a new audience, different to how I perceive F1,” Toto Wolff, team principal of Mercedes, said in 2019, explaining why the team got involved starting in Season 2.
The three seasons have captured many of Formula 1’s biggest moments, including drivers’ being fired midseason and scoring emotional first wins. One of the most dramatic episodes in Season 3 was Romain Grosjean’s escape from a crash that had left him trapped in the burning wreckage of his car for about 27 seconds. But a large part of the success of “Drive to Survive” has come from showcasing the personalities and lives of drivers off the track.
“Drive to Survive” ranked No. 1 for TV series worldwide shortly after Season 3’s release in March. It also brought in more viewers than the first season
Formula 1’s TV audience in the United States has jumped since “Drive to Survive” was released. ESPN said its average viewers per race had risen to about 928,000 in 2021 from about 547,000 in 2018.
The growth in popularity in the United States comes at an important time for Formula 1. A second Grand Prix in the United States, in Miami, will be added in 2022, as the sport tries to expand further into the country.
The way the sport tries to sell itself in terms of access to drivers and team principals both on race weekends and via Netflix is something a lot of sports could learn from.
Whatever happens this weekend, given the arguments and action during the 2021 F1 season, season 4 should be a terrific watch
StattoBets Dave Monthly Subscription
Stattobets write ups, analysis and bets are available to monthly subscribers.
Monthly subs are £50 a month and can be cancelled at any time. You can sign up here.
Betting Emporium results
The detailed results page has been updated on 1st September as have the spreadsheets with the detailed bets. They can be found by clicking RESULTS
If you bet £10 per point on every recommended bet since launch you would be winning + £52,096.80 All bets have an ROI +2.66%
A £4000 bank betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth would now be worth £56,096.80 a 1302% increase
