Weekly Articles "Road to Riches" by Rich 'Tighty' Prew
The Road to Riches Weekend of 28th-29th October
Coming up this weekend
- Horse Racing, On the flat at Doncaster and Newbury, on the all-weather at Chelmsford City and over the jumps at Cheltenham and Kelso.
- Football, Premier League fixtures include Manchester United v Manchester City
- Rugby Union, the Rugby World Cup Final.
- NFL, Week Eight
- Cricket, the ODI World Cup continues in India.
- Formula One, the Mexican Grand Prix
- Tennis ATP China Open followed by the Shanghai Rolex Masters.
- Golf on Worldwide Technology Championship on the USPGA Tour.
Free Tip
Gallagher Premiership Bath v Leicester 3.05pm Saturday
Bath finished last season with four consecutive wins and an eventual 8th placed finish, up from 13th the season before. With wealthy benefactors, the club is well funded and able to spend up to the salary cap, a competitive advantage in an era where the league is down to 10 clubs and few clubs are self-sustaining financially. This off-season Bath have added Finn Russell from the French Top 14 and South Africa prop Thomas Du Toit into a squad that had already begun to turn round a few seasons of disappointing results.
It's early days but after two rounds of games this season Bath are top of the league with back to back bonus point wins, firstly they beat Newcastle 34-26 with a hat-trick of Ben Spencer tries and then, in a statement victory, went to champions Saracens and won 25-16.
There is continuity, with the same coaching team as last year and the side is comparatively unaffected by absences in the late stage of the World Cup with Stuart, Underhill and Lawrence due to return from the England squad after the weekend.
Compared to Bath, Leicester have had a tricky start under a new coaching team led by Australian Dan McKellar. On the opening weekend they lost 25-14 at Bristol having been 25-0 down in a terrible start and last weekend lost 24-17 to title contenders Sale.
Leicester are still missing 8 players at the World Cup (Pollard, Montoya, Cole, Martin, Chessum, Wiese, Youngs and Steward) and it’s the very early stages of establishing what the coaching team requires. During the Premiership Rugby Cup games that took place during the World Cup Leicester were playing an exciting brand of 15-man rugby, often against inferior opponents. In the first two league games they’ve reverted to a forward led game with kicking and relying on strong defense, a typical Leicester style under previous coaches Borthwick and Wigglesworth.
The problem so far has been that the defence has allowed 49 points in two games and the whole team looks like a work in progress. The contrast between a Bath side which at Saracens had Russell in control with great off-loads firing an attacking game was marked.
Outright odds see Bath 2/5 and Leicester 12/5 with Leicester +7 on the handicap. I expect Bath to win and overcome the conditions which nevertheless look a little better for the weekend and cover.
11 points Bath -7 points at 10/11 generally
Growing the game
The plan for the expanded 2027 Rugby World Cup in Australia is to divide the 24 teams into six groups of four. The top two in each group, plus the four best third-placed sides, would progress to a new knockout round of 16. In that scenario the eight nations who do not qualify from the pool stage would play one match fewer than at this World Cup.
This is at odds with the imperative to grow the game outside the Tier One countries. So, it might be argued is the World Nations Championship due to start in 2026. The biennial two-tiered competition, with a 12-team top division to include Japan and Fiji, is not slated to feature promotion and relegation until 2030 at the earliest.
Portugal, Georgia, Fiji, Uruguay and Chile all impressed to varying degrees in the 2023 World Cup. Just taking one example, although Portugal’s performances against Wales and Australia were enjoyable they are not certain to play another Six Nations or Rugby Championship team outside of a World Cup for at least seven years.
To help, creating a plate competition at the 2027 World Cup would ensure that developing nations get at least the same number of matches as at a 20-team tournament but also get to enjoy more exposure and more games on the biggest stage. Theoretically the top two in each pool and the four best third-placed teams would progress, with the draw based on the same model used for the past two European Championships in football. Those who then lose in the round of 16 would drop into the plate competition and join the eight who did not qualify from the pool stage. The plate fixtures would be played in midweek. Some jeopardy could be added by awarding the winners automatic qualification to the next World Cup.
The two-tiered event would not be any longer than this year’s tournament and would retain World Rugby’s commitment to five-day rest periods. The sides who drop down to the plate from the round of 16 would play eight matches if they reach the final, but that is preferable to some teams being eliminated after only three group games.
As well as potential ideas such as this, the promising Tier 2 teams need much more regular and meaningful competitive games in between World Cups in the huge four year gaps, but there is little sign of this happening. Why not, for example, improve the Six Nations by expanding it to Eight Nations (including Georgia and Portugal), calling it the European Rugby Championship, with a relegation promotion dynamic? Or a return to the Five Nations with automatic promotion and relegation to a Five Nations B. One of the bigger teams would be compelled to tour a second tier country in non-World Cup years and those second tier sides would get a visit to one of the big sides every Autumn.
Whilst the need to earn revenue from big tours to the big sides and Autumn Internationals against the big boys that will sell out venues of course exists, currently there is nothing compelling the Tier One sides to assist in growing the game.
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The Road to Riches Weekend of 21st-22nd October
Coming up this weekend
- Horse Racing, On the flat at Ascot and Catterick, on the all-weather at Wolverhampton and over the jumps at Market Rasen, Newton Abbot and Stratford
- Football, Premier League fixtures include Liverpool v Everton and Chelsea v Arsenal
- Rugby Union, the Rugby World Cup Semi-Finals.
- NFL, Week Seven
- Cricket, the ODI World Cup continues in India.
- Formula One, the USA Grand Prix
- Tennis ATP Ernst Bank Open and the Swiss Open Indoor Championship.
- Golf the Qatar Masters on the DP World Tour
Free Tip
The US Grand Prix, Austin, Sunday at 6.30pm
Five Grand Prix left this season, four of which are in the Americas incouding the return of a Grand Prix in Las Vegas for the penultimate race of the season, guaranteed to be a thrilling spectacle running down the strip.
In the Qatar Grand Prix a fortnight ago we were slightly unfortunate not to get a top two finish from Lando Norris in the Sunday race over a weekend which confirmed Max Verstappen’s third World Championship.
Lando Norris qualified second but started the race only 10th after his fastest qualifying time was deleted when he fell foul of the very tough track limit regulations imposed by the Stewards. He finished the race third, only a second behind his team-mate. He finished a second behind his team-mate in third place.
Afterwards Norris bemoaned his mistakes over the weekend, as in addition a mistake at the last corner on his final lap in Saturday’s second qualifying session opened the door for Piastri to take pole position and win the sprint race.
Afterwards he said:
“If I want to be honest with myself, I should have fought for two pole positions this weekend and potentially two victories”
The McLaren had the pace on the fast corners that enabled him to overtake Ferraris and Aston Martins during the race and he felt he would have been competitive with Mercedes too.
Austin this weekend is another track that should suit the upgraded McLaren with two fast DRS zones and long sweeping corners.
Each-way terms are 1/3 the odds two places and we get virtually the same price on Norris that we did last weekend. Apart from the obvious favourite Verstappen and the other McLaren of Piastri, it’s 20/1 bar the front three.
10 points each way Lando Norris to win the US Grand Prix at 12/1 (1/3 two places) with Bet365, BetVictor, SkyBet
Back to Basics
Coinciding with the Rugby World Cup reaching the knockout stages the Gallagher Premiership returned last weekend.
This season the Premiership is for the first time in 18 years a ten-team league but not by choice. The demise of London Irish, Worcester Warriors and Wasps last season means that every team now plays one another home and away in the regular season. At the end of the regular season the top four will face off in two one-legged semi-finals, and then a final at Twickenham.
All teams except the bottom two will qualify for the European Champions Cup, while the ninth-placed team qualifies into the Challenge Cup. The bottom side faces a two-legged promotion/relegation play-off against the Championship winners, who are unlikely to have met the RFU’s ground criteria for Premiership eligibility but nevertheless its an improvement on the closed shop of recent seasons.
The marketing teams have been hard at work to generate interest in the league in a competitive sporting landscape, and this season sees five “themed weekends” including “Derby Weekend” “Showdown weekend” and a “Big Summer Kick Off”.
The domestic game in England remains under financial pressure with an uneasy relationship with the RFU and the national side, a salary cap operating at a lower level than notably the French Top 14 and so with continued competition for playing talent from other leagues.
At least this season there is a partial reversal of the talent drain seen in recent years, headed by Finn Russell’s signing by Bath. Also back in the Premiership are Zach Mercer at Gloucester (via Montpellier); Joe Launchbury at Harlequins (from Japan) and Tom Willis at Saracens (from Bordeaux).
Champions Saracens are the favourites again (6/4) and can offset likely England losses with four signings from London Irish (Tom Parton, Ollie Hoskins, Lucio Cinti and Juan Martín González) alongside Willis.
After Saracens in the market come Sale (7/2), Leicester (5/1) and Harlequins (8/1), 14/1 bar including Northampton and Bath where a resurgence is expected under their big spending owner. Both Saracens and Leicester suffered losses over the first weekend, a potential sign of a competitive season ahead.
First things first though for all teams in the league, let’s hope for financial stability across the board to ensure the league does not contract further.
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The Road to Riches Weekend of 14th-15th October
Coming up this weekend
- Horse Racing, On the flat at Chepstow, Chester, Newmarket and York, on the all-weather at Chelmsford City and over the jumps at Hexham.
- Football, European Championship Qualifying matches.
- Rugby Union, the Rugby World Cup continues, the Quarter-Finals.
- NFL, Week Six
- Cricket, the ODI World Cup continues in India.
- Tennis ATP Japan Open.
- Golf the ZOZO Championship on the USPGA
Free Tip
The Cesarewitch Newmarket Saturday 2.40pm by Neil Channing
The racing at Newmarket on Friday was run on good to soft ground but with 9mm of rain expected Friday night, maybe 5mm more on Saturday morning and further rain during racing it does seem likely that this year's Cesarewitch will be run on extremely testing ground, probably heavy.
Given that the big handicap is run over 2m2f it really ought to be a massive slog and I think we ought to only bet horses that have won over the trip and who want this kind of ground. The quandary slightly comes because the race contains a whole load of horses that stay further than this over jumps who have yet to prove they can do it on the flat. I've seen enough racing to know that I want to see that a horse has done something before I bet them to do it, so I'll scratch those jumps runners who I can't be sure will get home and that includes the favourite Pied Piper, who has had a couple of goes at long distances without convincing me and The Shunter, who connections could easily know more than me about the horse.
Goshen is not a horse I've ever warmed to and on the flat he's mostly run over shorter trips so I don't see him as a solid option here, Jesse Evans has been thought of as not wanting soft ground and we don't know about his stamina, Oh So Sleepy was 4th in this in 2019, 4th again in 2020 and 3rd last year but in all three races he faded late on and didn't quite seem to stay the trip. I'm fairly sure Zoffee, who was 4th last year, and Tritonic both stay this trip but I don't think either of them wanted the rain to fall so hard. Basically there is only one horse under 28/1 who runs both on jumps and the flat who I can consider and that is Sheishybird.
I'm not going to look at horses over 28/1 as only a couple have shown they can win on the trip and our old friend the Favourite/Longshot bias makes it hard for us to get value betting horses each-way at big prices with the bookmakers as the true price is more accurately reflected on exchanges and these are generally going to be much bigger.
Of the horses that haven't tried further than this jumping only Grand Providence, Temporize, Vino Vetrix, Tahkhan and Blazeon Five have won or come 2nd over this trip and I'll throw out Vino Vetrix and Blazeon Five whose stables are really out of form at the moment.
I'm left with just four possible bets...
Sheishybird ran 2nd in a trial for this recently and off this mark would appear to have a good chance. The problem is she has run 18 times on the flat and only once she's run on soft and that didn't go well. It looks like it's not what her connections think she'll want.
Grand Providence won the recent trial race off 85 and has gone up five pounds for that. She is pretty inexperienced having just run five times on turf and she's been in the first three in all five. One of those runs was on heavy where she was 3rd. Just looks very solid to me.
Temporize has run eleven times on turf and the only two on soft were both wins. He won the Goodwood 2m4f race really easily and so he'll definitely stay here and this looks like a solid bet.
Taskhan won easily enough over this trip and on soft ground last time. He has gone up just three pounds and he loves this ground but after 20 runs we basically know where we are with him and although I can see him plodding round in 4th or 5th he may not have enough up his sleeve.
I'm having 8 Points each-way Temporize at 14/1 1/5th 123456 easily available.
I'm having 10 Points each-way Grand Providence at 9/1 1/5th 123456 easily available.
Suffer Jets.
New York Jets Quarterback Aaron Rodgers’ torn Achilles in Week one of the NFL season was one of the most significant injuries, and the most devastating to a team and fan base in NFL history. There never has been a player who received more off-season hype for a high-profile big city team that has languished in the doldrums for over a decade. With expectations raised, Rodgers’ season ended after just four plays of the first game without him ever completing a pass.
Against the odds the Jets team then went on to beat the Bills in that game but with a 1-3 record are winless since with former second overall draft pick Zach Wilson at Quarterback, a player who under-performed so far in his rookie season that he was benched.
In four starts this season Wilson has 911 passing yards, four touchdowns and five interceptions.
The Jets are winless in his first three starts despite a terrific defense, one of the league’s best with stars such as cornerback Sauce Gardner and defensive lineman Quinnen Williams, both recent first round draft picks performing well. Also the Jets have some young foundational offensive skill players in last year’s first round selection wide receiver Garrett Wilson and running back Breece Hall.
Only in the Week four Sunday night football defeat at home to the Kansas City Chiefs did Wilson begin to show some encouraging sides, with the offense adapted to include some pre-snap motion, a change from a Rodgers offense which typically operated without any.This continued with a better performance at Denver last weekend where he completed 73% of passes against the league’s worst defense.
The Jets have so far resisted the temptation to trade for a bona fide NFL Quarterback starter, a Kirk Cousins say, who is in the last year of his Vikings contract at the age of 5. They have brought in journeyman Trevor Siemian who may replace Zach Wilson at some point before it is too late to salvage any play-off prospects.
One of the reasons they may not have done so is that Rodgers is under contract beyond this season, for $75m guaranteed until the end of next season. Whilst this represents a $35m pay cut from his recent Green Bay Packer contract, with the aim of allowing the Jets to build out the rest of the roster alongside him, it does preclude a big Quarterback acquisition without changing other player contracts or trading players away.
For the Jets this is looking like anther lost season, for a team that last made the play-offs in 2010 and has only done so seven times since 1990.
They represent an extreme case of what happens when a franchise Quarterback is injured, as they aren’t 32 Quarterbacks good enough to start at the required standard in the NFL let alone allowing teams to have the depth to roster back-ups that can send teams to winning seasons if they are required to play for a significant number of weeks through the regular season.
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A £4000 bank betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth £71,176 a 1678% increase
The Road to Riches Weekend of 7th-8th October
Coming up this weekend
- Horse Racing, On the flat at Ascot, Newmarket, Redcar, Wolverhampton and over the jumps at Fontwell
- Football, the Premier League matches include Arsenal v Manchester City.
- Rugby Union, the Rugby World Cup continues, the last round of Pool Matches.
- NFL, the new season continues, week 5.
- Cricket, the ODI World Cup continues in India.
- Formula One, the Qatar Grand Prix
- Tennis ATP Zhengzhou Open.
- Golf the Shriners Children’s Open on the USPGA and the Spanish Open on the DP World Tour
Free Tip
The Qatar Grand Prix 6pm Sunday
The second edition of this Grand Prix. After Lewis Hamilton won the inaugural race in 2021, the 2022 race didn’t take place due to planning for the then upcoming Football World Cup. The race resumes this year on a 10 year contract and it’s a night race.
A fast circuit with long fast corners it will be no surprise if Max Verstappen wins for Red Bull and therefore wins his third world title this weekend. He’s won 13 races this season and Red Bull have won 14 of 15, the exception being Ferrari’s recent win in Singapore. There are six races of the season to go.
Behind Verstappen, Sergio Perez’s inconsistent form leaves a couple of podium positions to be won at most races and therefore often each-way interest for bettors.
Amongst the other teams Mercedes have performed consistently all season, and are currently second in the Constructors Championship with both drivers typically finishing 3rd-6th without the raw pace or speed in the fast corners of a couple of other teams they are opposable in markets.
Aston Martin began the season like a house on fire but have fallen away relative to some competitors, into the midfield, as they’ve been out-developed by the big teams. That leaves Ferrari and McLaren to look at.
Ferrari can often be expected to make strategy mistakes, their team management is not up to the quality of some other teams and as a result their two drivers LeCler and Sainz have only 5 top three finishes in 15 races this season combined. Contrast that with Lando Norris at McLaren who has four top three finishes in the last seven races alone, as McLaren have upgraded consistently during the second part of the season towards the front of the grid.
On this track McLaren, whether it be Norris or Piastri, but especially Norris should be in contention for a podium position.
8 points each way Lando Norris Qatar Grand Prix at 12/1 1/3 1,2 with Bet365, Bet Victor and Entain brands
Green Shoots
This Rugby World Cup has been a showcase of the potential among many so-called ‘Tier 2’ countries. Chile qualified for the first time and fellow South American side Uruguay pushed hosts France to the brink with a fine performance. Portugal gave Wales a major fright showing attacking ambition as well as organisation and resilience and went on to draw with higher-ranked Georgia.
In 2026 the Nations Championship will be launched with the intention of providing a meaningful narrative for Test fixtures outside of World Cup and Lions-tour years. However the event will feature only the Six Nations and Rugby Championship teams plus Japan and Fiji. There is no place for Teams like Samoa and Georgia and the tournament has no promotion and relegation until at least 2030.
Some of the excluded teams outside the top tier establishment are not excluded on merit, several teams are higher in the World rankings than both Italy (12th) and Japan (14th) for example.
The proposal to ring-fence the Tier one teams seems like a backward move in the context of growing the game globally where there are green shoots everywhere but in danger of them not being developed.
The likes of Georgia, Portugal and Uruguay should be given a shot at improvement. The USA at least have a home World Cup in 2031, while the game would benefit from funding to help struggling Canada and Romania. Brazil are another country with massive rugby potential.
World Rugby have funded the development of the Fijian Drua and Moana Pasifika teams in Super Rugby and we can see Fijian rugby has taken a big step forward in this world Cup.
In Europe the big issue is the closed shop of the Six Nations where nothing is done to jeopardise the familiar format which accounts for so much of the participants annual P and Ls. It is a blockbuster event every year but having that as a ring-fenced tournament stifles growth elsewhere in Europe.
As Georgia have found over many years there is no space to increase the size of the Six Nations without a merit-based system to do so. At the very least, a play-off system between the wooden spoon team and the winners of the second-tier Rugby Europe Championship would be progress.
Italy’s experience is that entry into the tournament is no guarantee of success but the Six Nations funding has enabled an academy system to eventually flourish and that talent is now reaching an exciting first team with improving performances.
European rugby is reaching a crossroads. It is genuinely two tier and not the lead part of a vibrant, thriving, expanding global game, which is encouraging a sustained push into new territories. There is enormous potential to grow in Continental Europe currently hindered by a glass ceiling. A Nations Championship which locks out so much potential is not the answer.
Whilst the Northern Hemisphere Autumn Internationals see the major Tier One teams invited this is because they are a cash cow for the home nations, we shouldn’t expect Tier two teams to be invited to these fixtures ahead of New Zealand and South Africa.
Smaller teams need the context of big tournaments to sell. Instead World Rugby has created a mid-world cup cycle big tournament for big teams only and excluded smaller teams only playing them in friendlies.
Most fans would I think like to see more involvement of Tier Two teams in big games. One partial solution might be the suggestion of an increase in the number of World Cup teams for 2027 onwards to 24. Fiji’s win over Australia and South Africa’s ongoing absence from the competition also must push the Pacific Islands teams into the conversation for inclusion in the Rugby Championship.
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Betting Emporium results
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If you bet £10 per point on every recommended bet since launch you would be winning + £67,126 All bets have an ROI +3.05%
A £4000 bank betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth £71,176 a 1678% increase
The Road to Riches Weekend of 30th September-1st October
Coming up this weekend
- Horse Racing, On the flat at Ayr, Catterick, Newbury, Newmarket, Wolverhampton and York
- Football, the Premier League matches include Tottenham Hotspur v Liverpool.
- Rugby Union, the Rugby World Cup continues.
- NFL, the new season continues, week 4.
- Cricket, the ODI World Cup begins in India next week.
- Tennis ATP Shanghai Rolex Masters.
- Golf the Sanderson Farms Championship on the USPGA and the Alfred Dunhill Links Championship on the DP World Tour
The Cricket World Cup
The 2023 Cricket World Cup starts next week running until 19th November. We’ll have full coverage of the tournament including the outright and props markets ante-post and each match through to the final. The cost of the package is £50 and you can sign up here
Free Tip
India v England Cricket World Cup Warm Up Match, Saturday 9.30am BST start
With the Cricket World Cup starting next week England have two warm up matches in Guwahati, North East India (had to google ecactly where it was!) tomorrow and then on Monday, firstly against World Cup favourites India and then Bangladesh.
England flew from London on Thursday all smiles on social media turning left on their plane for the long flight. 38 hours later they arrived in Guwahati, with Jonny Bairstow for example posting publically that the flights/onward travel had been "utter chaos". Less than 24 hours later they take the field against India. Not ideal. India arrived, apparently without incident, the day before.
India should be favourites anyway, they've just come off a 2-1 warm-up series win against Australia at home and it would be unreasonable to expect England to be at full pelt for this. The main aim must be to avoid injuries whilst they adjust to Asian conditions.
India are 8/11 to win in two places, 4/6 generally. I suggest they should be shorter, warm up game or not, in these circumstances.
22 points India to win at 8/11 Betfred and Skybet, 4/6 generally
The death of the deep ball?
Patrick Mahomes’ longest completion in the Super Bowl was 22 yards by Travis Kelce, a pass that went 14 yards through the air and had 8 yards after the catch and Mahomes attempted only four passes over 15 yards in the entire match. In his first Super Bowl appearance three seasons earlier, he attempted twice as many of those passes.
In the interim between the two games defense had adjusted to his skill and began to make him face deep coverages, forcing Mahomes to take shorter options to move the ball down the field.
This mirrors a league-wide trend that last season saw the fewest number of deep balls attempted, passes travelling at least 15 yards since 2006.
When quarterbacks did air it out they were successful. Completion percentages on those attempts of at least 15 yards downfield was 45% the second-highest completion percentage in a single season since 2006.
The trend continued through the first two weeks of the 2023 regular season too. Both air yards per attempt and number of passes attempted of more than 20 air yards were lower than the 2022 averages. Just 9% of all passes attempted were deep balls, down from 10.4% in Week 1 of 2022.
Two reasons are put forward for this change in the game. Firstly defenses are using more “two-high looks” putting two safeties back deep and making it more difficult for receivers to get open on the vertical routes. Secondly in 2006, about 43.5% of the passing yards generated by offenses were produced by receivers after catching the football. By 2022, that mark was north of 50%. The most notable example of this is Tyreek Hill.
In response to the deeper defenses NFL teams have been drafting smaller, very quick receivers that can get up to full speed very quickly, receive short passes and out-run defenses after the catch, a trend that has come to the NFL from college football.
The NFL is cyclical. An offensive concept rises up through the levels of football, NFL defenses adapt to it and take it away, offenses find a new answer and so on, At some stage defenses will react to the smaller, faster receivers on the field and at that point the deep ball will open up again. For all teams it’s about being ahead of the curve.
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Betting Emporium results
The detailed results page has been updated on 1st July 2023. They can be found by clicking RESULTS
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A £4000 bank betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth £71,176 a 1678% increase
