Weekly Articles "Road to Riches" by Rich 'Tighty' Prew
The Road to Riches Weekend of 8th-9th July
Coming up this weekend
- Horse Racing, On the flat at Beverly, Carlisle, Haydock, Leicester, Nottingham and Sandown
- Cricket, the third Ashes Test continues at Headingley and the T20 Blast Quarter Finals
- Formula One, the British Grand Prix
- Rugby Union, the Rugby Championship begins
- Tennis Wimbledon continues
- Golf the Barbasol Championship on the USPGA and the Scottish Open on the DP World Tour
Free Tip
Vitality T20 Blast Quarter Final Lancashire v Surrey Friday 6.30pm
One of three Quarter Finals being played on Friday night, this between the second placed finisher in the North Group and the third placed finisher in the South Group.
Surrey were in the top two of the South Group for much of the Group stages but faded down the stretch losing four of their last five matches with the issues primarily being able to defend big totals at home, meaning no home Quarter final and this tough trip to Old Trafford. Overall Surrey lost five home Group matches at the high scoring Oval, so perhaps won’t be too disappointed to be away this weekend.
Lancashire meanwhile were consistently one of the best sides in the North Group, winning eight games and post the IPL they have been fielding a batting line up containing Buttler, Livingstone and Salt alongside their top scorer in the competition New Zealand overseas pro Daryl Mitchell and an experienced domestic bowling line up. Outright odds have Lancashire 4/5 favourites
I have two ideas in the player sub-markets. Firstly top Lancashire batsman where understandably enough the favourites are Buttler and Livingstone but my eye was drawn to Buttler’s opening partner Phil Salt, once of Sussex and now of the England T20 team. Salt is a big hitter and his form can be streaky and it’s currently in a sweet spot. He ended the group stages well with a 74* last Sunday following a 50 in the Championship win last midweek over Surrey.
In the Lancashire top bowler market Luke Wood took 17 wickets in the Group stages, he’s a left arm opening bowler that played franchise competitions overseas in the winter and his unorthodox style will be a challenge for Surrey’s hard hitting top order who don’t worry about technique if the pitch is suitable, merely hitting.
8 points Phil Salt top Lancashire batsman at 7/2 with Bet365
8 points Luke Wood top Lancashire bowler at 21/10 with Bet365
Other firms will price in the 24 hours leading up to the game
Refinery
2-0 down in the Ashes and writing before the start of the Third Test, England have come close to winning both games against a superb opponent. That they haven’t done so is due to a series of unforced errors in both games. As the inferior team, their execution has to be better to get them over the line.
In the Edgbaston Test there was a naivete in the England second innings. One such example was with Jonny Bairstow. England were 200 ahead and five wickets down and with the possibility of setting a commanding target, but one or two wickets away from not doing so. Australia, unlike the teams England roared past in the last twelve months, have had a plan to counter Bazball, putting players on the boundary and accepting that they are going to allow 4-5 runs and over but not wanting to go at 8-9 an over, thus staying within the game and waiting for mistakes knowing that few of the England batsman display patience.
Bairstow continued to play “big” with no adjustment for the Australian tactics and the game situation. Lyon bowled to him with nine fielders out. Playing slightly within himself for half an hour, the only way he could get out would be bowled or LBW. Cue the Bairstow reverse sweep attempt, caught in front, out LBW and England ended up setting 280 and losing by two wickets.
At Lords England were 188-1 in the first innings and with a realistic shot at a first innings lead. Cue Australia having another tactic to counter the England batsmen, the short ball. Pope, Root and Brook fell to poorly executed hook shots, Brook’s egregiously so and England eventually conceded a first innings lead of nearly 100. The situation demanded consolidation and some conservatism. Instead England kept their foot to the floor and perished. Of course there is no guarantee that a different approach would have succeeded but it felt the better match option in that instance than happy hooking to four boundary fielders with the odds unlikely to be in your favour consistently.
Ultimately of course Australia won despite having the worst of the conditions throughout and being a bowler down for an innings and a half. Only Stokes’ brilliance got England close.
England will say that they trust the process, that they are looking to entertain and rather than changing the approach merely the execution of the shots need to be better. Through four England batting innings in the series so far though, nine unforced dismissals of top seven batsmen suggest that executing high tariff shots against Starc, Cummins and Hazlewood enough not to concede unnecessary wickets is a long shot, especially now they are up against an opponent with plans against them.
“Bazball” and its players need to mature and have different strings to its bow to allow for better risk-reward in match situations. Ben Stokes has showed signs of this in both games, defending well at times and rotating the strike, many of the younger batsmen haven’t taking the philosophy to extremes where doesn’t consistently pay off against this strong opponent.
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The Road to Riches Weekend of 1st-2nd July
Coming up this weekend
- Horse Racing, On the flat at Chester, Doncaster, Linfield, Newcastle, Newmarket and Windsor
- Cricket, the second Ashes Test continues at Lords
- Formula One, the Austrian Grand Prix
- Tennis Wimbledon begins on Monday
- Golf the John Deere Classic on the USPGA and the Made in Himmerland tournament Masters on the DP World Tour
Free Tip
Vitality T20 Blast Surrey v Somerset Friday 6.30pm
Two rounds of games left in the group stages. Somerset have already guaranteed a home Quarter-final, four points clear at the top of the South Group but still have motivation to win this, as in doing so would win them the group and give them the easiest Quarter-Final, theoretically, against the fourth place finisher in the North group
Surrey are second in the South Group, well placed for the Quarter Finals but yet to be guaranteed a place after failing to defend 252 against then winless Middlesex last week
When these two teams met at Taunton earlier in the competition Surrey defended 190 by 28 runs
The last time we looked at Surrey this column backed Will Jacks to be Surrey top scorer, and he was out for a duck. Since that game Jacks has top scored in both games, scoring 69 and 96. Overall with 468 runs in 12 games so far this season at a strike rate of 160 including 27 sixes, second only to opening partner Laurie Evans with 481 runs. Bet365 offer 6/4 Jacks over 1.5 sixes. If he makes it through the first few overs, he will smash this quote.
For Somerset leading run scorer is the one-day specialist, opener Will Smeed with 404 runs at a strike rate of 180. His last five scores in the competition are 78,66,36,8 and 94.
These are two outstanding young hitters, likely to be playing on a great surface in a high scoring game, opening the batting.
8 points Will Jacks Top Surrey run scorer at 13/5 with Bet365
8 points Will Smeed Top Somerset scorer at 3/1 with Bet365
10 points Jacks over 1.5 sixes 6/4 Bet365
(More firms to price the markets on Friday)
Devalued
There’s a reason two of the NFL’s three unsigned “franchise” players are running backs and the term “devalued” is routinely used when discussing the position. Teams argue they can get by with a plug-and-play mentality or a committee approach. Consequently, compensation for running backs under the franchise tag trails every other position group except kickers and punters. On offense alone, their $10.1m tender this season is nearly $1.3m less than tight ends, $8.15m less than offensive linemen, $9.7m behind wide receivers and $22.3m behind quarterbacks.
Take Josh Jacobs, for instance. He unquestionably was the best offensive player on the Raiders last season, finishing the year as the league leader in rushing yards and scrimmage yards. He accounted for 49.9% of the team’s touches from scrimmage, which was the highest percentage in the league and nearly 37 points above the next Raider. His 93 rushing first downs were 24 more than anyone else in the league and equalled or surpassed the total of eight teams.
Yet the Raiders are asking him to play 2023 on a franchise tag that trails six teammates in terms of salary cap allocation. Jacobs has yet to sign the tender or participate in offseason activities, and if the sides fail to reach an agreement on a multiyear deal before July 17, he will be required by league rules to play under the tag this season.
Running backs have been struggling to be compensated at high rates since the 2011 collective bargaining agreement. In the lead-up to those negotiations, the NFL made it clear to the players association that it wanted a rookie wage scale as part of any agreement. The owners were tired of paying massive moneys to unproven players. That change has been as devastating to running backs drafted in the first round.
As part of the agreement, teams were allowed to contractually tie up first-round picks for up to eight years; the first four on fully guaranteed deals, followed by a fifth-year team option, then three consecutive years of franchise tags. With the average career span being 3.2 years, according to NFLPA data, that means first-rounders might go their entire career without receiving a multiyear extension or reaching the open market in free agency. It’s critical for backs to get as much as they can as quickly as they can because they tend to have an abbreviated shelf life. Of the 173 players who took snaps at the position last season, only 15 were 30 or older. Good running backs tend to get used heavily when young and then wear down. Ezekiel Elliott is a good example of this, released in the summer and still without another club.
Four years ago, an effort was made to carve NFL running backs out of the NFL Players Association, in order to create their own union and have their own bargaining unit, and their own bargaining power. Maybe their own salary cap.
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Betting Emporium results
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If you bet £10 per point on every recommended bet since launch you would be winning + £61,936 All bets have an ROI +2.91%
A £4000 bank betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth £61,936 a 1448% increase
The Road to Riches Weekend of 24th-25th June
Coming up this weekend
- Horse Racing, On the flat AT Bath, Chester, Leicester, Sandown and York and over the jumps at Hexham and Uttoxeter
- Cricket, the second Ashes Test next week at Lords
- Rugby Union, the Super Rugby Final
- Tennis ATP Mallorca, Rothesay International and Wimbledon Qualification
- Golf the Rocket Mortgage Classic on the USPGA and the British Masters on the DP World Tour
Free Tip
Super Rugby Final Chiefs v Crusaders Saturday 8.05am
The four month Super Rugby Pacific season concludes with the Chiefs and Crusaders meeting in the final this weekend in Hamilton.
The Crusaders finished second in the regular season table and thrashed the Blues, third place finishers, in the semi-final 52-15 whilst the table topping Chiefs struggled past the Reds in their quarter-final and then only pulled away late I the game to beat the Brumbies 19-6 in their semi-final.
The Chiefs earned the right to host the final after losing only one match in the regular season, a run stitched together with help from their consistently high-performing attacking talents along with a pack led by Sam Cane and Brodie Retallick. However, they have struggled over the past fortnight to break teams open and given the way the Crusaders dominated the Blues defensively and at the breakdown, they will have a big challenge against the defending champions on Saturday night.
In moving their home playoff record to 29-0, the Crusaders confirmed their pedigree in favourable conditions at this time of year. And last year they proved again that they can do it away from home when beating the Blues in the grand final at Eden Park.
One area the Crusaders might have an advantage in is preparation and coaching. The way the Crusaders exposed the Blues’ midfield of Bryce Heem and Rieko Ioane on Friday night would have been largely down to assistant coach Scott Hansen’s analysis and strategy. Hansen, joining next All Blacks coach Scott Robertson (this his last game coaching the Crusaders) and former Blues coach Leon MacDonald at the All Blacks, is known as one of the sharpest thinkers in the New Zealand game and will present a plan designed to exploit the Chiefs’ defensive idiosyncrasies.
Outright prices are the Chiefs 5/6, Crusaders 11/10 and +1 on the handicap. I like the Crusaders outright and retain their title.
12 points Crusaders to win the Super Rugby final at 6/5 Coral and 11/10 generally
No Easy Answer
The selection dilemmas created by having the choice between a great wicket-keeper and a wicket-keeper batsman in the side has cropped up through generations for English cricket, in the Alec Stewart/Jack Russell debates of 30 years ago and it was thrown into sharp relief during the first Ashes test this time round.
Jonny Bairstow’s 78 in 78 balls in England’s first innings was crucial to getting England up towards 400 on day one and laying the foundation for Root’s century at the other end. It was an innings in style that Ben Foakes, a technically correct player and an accumulator of runs would be unlikely to play.
On days 2 and 3 though we saw the downsides of not selecting the top wicket-keeper, a position so influential in English test matches with Bairstow missing three chances, two caught behind and a stumping from Green, Carey and Khawaja that you would expect a specialist keeper to take. Add in Stuart Broad’s wicket from a no-ball and the four let offs led to Australia scoring another 108 runs and made the difference between England securing a comfortable first innings lead and only a marginal one and ultimately between losing the game and at least drawing it. It could also be argued that it indirectly caused Moeen’s finger injury as he, fresh off not bowling a long spell in first class cricket for nine months, ended up bowling 33 overs.
There is no perfect solution for England though. You either accept the missed chances or forgo some batting at a tempo consistent with the approach the team is trying to play with.
Of course there was never any doubt that Bairstow would be selected again after missing the winter through injury. He averages 37 as a batsman in Tests but over 50 batting at 5 under McCullum and Stokes. Batting him at 7 isn’t perfect but in the meantime since his injury Harry Brook has emerged and cemented his place at 5 in the line-up. Ben Foakes meanwhile averages 32 in 20 Tests.
Might though there be a time later in this Ashes series where England decide they have to pick both thereby getting your best XI on the field. Doing so would seem optimal but causes difficulties elsewhere. Who in the top six is dropped to make way for both? Pope, Root, Brook and Stokes are undroppable, which leads to the debate over the openers most notably Zak Crawley.
Crawley’s attacking technique is better than his defensive technique (He’s been dismissed 29 times in tests playing a defensive shot) but perhaps if the plan as stated is to produce fast but true pitches all series (to aid England’s rate of scoring but nullify the skills of the Australian quicks) putting a square peg in a round hole and opening with say Brook is a possibility, which you wouldn’t do on a green wicket (but then again you wouldn’t want Crawley opening on that either) to help you get Foakes in and take 20 wickets on the said flat pitches. We’ll see.
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Betting Emporium results
The detailed results page has been updated on 1st January 2023. They can be found by clicking RESULTS
If you bet £10 per point on every recommended bet since launch you would be winning + £61,936 All bets have an ROI +2.91%
A £4000 bank betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth £61,936 a 1448% increase
The Road to Riches Weekend of 17th-18th June
Coming up this weekend
- Horse Racing, On the flat AT Bath, Chester, Leicester, Sandown and York and over the jumps at Hexham and Uttoxeter
- Football, European Championship Qualifying Matches
- Cricket, the first Ashes Test continues at Edgbaston
- Formula One, the Canadian Grand Prix
- Tennis ATP Queens and Halle
- Golf the Travelers Championship on the USPGA and the BMW International on the DP World Tour
Royal Ascot
Neil Channing’s package for Royal Ascot (20th-24th June) is now available for subscription here, cost is £199
Free Tip
Vitality T20 Blast Surrey v Hampshire 2.30pm Sunday
Heading into the second half of the Group stages of the T20 Blast Surrey are second in the South Group with six wins from 8 games and Hampshire third with five wins. With four teams from each group making it through to the Knockout stages this is an important game, with the top two finishers in each group guaranteed a home Quarter Final.
Surrey have played four of their six games so far away, with the first stages of the competition coinciding with the World Test Championship final at the Oval. In one of those away games they beat Hampshire at Southampton by six wickets.
Surrey are an extremely strong T20 outfit, albeit one that has flattered to deceive at the business end in the competition.
The batting line up tees off right from the start knowing that the line-up is so deep whilst the plethora of international and franchise all-rounders means the side routinely has seven bowlers that can be called upon depending on conditions and game circumstance
This is being written before Friday night’s games, Surrey away at Somerset and Hampshire away at Sussex . At the time of writing Surrey’s batting in this competition has been dominated by the top three in the order
Laurie Evans 327 at a strike rate of 166 with a hundred and two fifties (including a 93)
Will Jacks 243 runs at a strike rate of 151 with a 50 (83* v Hampshire)
Sam Curran 237 runs at a strike rate of 155 and three 50s.
Any are candidates in the top batsman market here, with one or more “coming off” most games and I have a marginal preference for Will Jacks
The bowling line-up (Curran and Jordan at the death, Sean Abbott up front) has the advantage of being to call on the brilliant Sunil Narine, the veteran West Indian/franchise spinner at the end of the powerplay overs. Irrespective of surface he has caused all opponents problems. He has a team leading 14 wickets in the 8 games and an economy rate of a competition leading 6.3, just over a run a ball. He should give us a good run for our money in the top Surrey bowler market.
These prices are taken from those for Friday night's game, with prices live for Sunday from Saturday (will update then)
8 points Will Jacks top Surrey batsman at 12/5 with Bet365, more firms to follow over the weekend
8 points Sunil Narine top Surrey bowler at 4/1 with Bet365, more firms to follow over the weekend
Hitting the rocks
Last week brought London Irish were suspended from the Premiership for the 2023/24 season due to financial issues, a third club from 13 professional teams to be so in eight months.
After a season in which two Premiership clubs in Worcester Warriors and Wasps experienced administration, enforced relegation and continue to face the threat of extinction London Irish, who finished fifth in the table just missing out on the play-offs, have now followed suit while every remaining club holds high levels of debt.
London Irish could not provide evidence they would be able to adequately fund themselves through the 2023/24 campaign.
Seeking assurances the RFU sought one of the following resolutions a) A takeover of the club has been completed and approved by the RFU, with the buyers undertaking to provide all required working capital to meet the club's obligations as they fall due for at least season 2023/24; or b) The club evidences that it will continue to be funded to operate throughout the 2023/24 season.
Irish have £30m of debt and three winding-up petitions from HMRC due to unpaid taxes of £1m. With a takeover falling through the RFU suspended them from all leagues after failing to meet their commitments to pay staff and players in full for May.
After losing three professional clubs in just eight months, the Premiership is expected to adopt a 10-team league from next season, but it is clear the financial model for clubs within the competition is not fit for purpose, and this may not be the end of the problems. Leicester for example, needed a £13m cash injection last season to avoid administration.
Like most sports, the Covid-19 pandemic hit rugby hard, with most unions and domestic leagues still in recovery mode from the revenue lost.
The Premiership has found itself in a circumstance where its clubs are spending more and more in a competitive global environment for talent, particularly from France where the salary cap is bigger.
Clubs have seen wage bills of £9m per year, but an average of just £4m brought in per club from match ticket sales. Premiership clubs throughout the country are debt heavy without a host of commercial avenues apart from match-days.
In response to the pandemic and with sustainability in mind, the Premiership reduced its yearly player salary cap per club to £5m from £6.4m for the start of the 2021/22 season.
The cap, in original plans, is set to return to £6.4m in 2024, though clubs are thought to be in discussions to keep it at £5m.
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Stattobets write ups, analysis and bets are available to monthly subscribers.
Results = points bet 26860 profit +1132.47 ROI +4.22% Full details here
Monthly subs are £50 a month and can be cancelled at any time. You can sign up here.
Betting Emporium results
The detailed results page has been updated on 1st January 2023. They can be found by clicking RESULTS
If you bet £10 per point on every recommended bet since launch you would be winning + £61,936 All bets have an ROI +2.91%
A £4000 bank betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth £61,936 a 1448% increase
The Road to Riches Weekend of 10th-11th June
Coming up this weekend
- Horse Racing, On the flat at Beverley, Catterick, Chepstow, Haydock and Lingfield and over the jumps at Bangor
- Football, the Champions League final in Istanbul, Manchester City v Inter Milan
- Cricket, the World Test Championship final at the Oval continues, Australia v India and next week the start of the Ashes.
- Tennis ATP Libema, Stuttgart and Nottingham Opens
- Golf the US Open next week in Los Angeles
Royal Ascot
Neil Channing’s package for Royal Ascot (20th-24th June) is now available for subscription here, cost is £199
Free Tip
The Ashes
Outright odds for the five Test Ashes series that begins at Edgbaston next week are England 5/4 Australia 13/10 and the draw 6/1. Recent England form, they’ve won 10 out of 12 Tests under Stokes in their “Bazball” approach and recent Ashes form, England have won four of the last five home Ashes series and drew the last one at home, would support England’s favouritism. However England lack the depth that Australia have, an issue that could be accentuated by playing the whole series in a six week span ahead of August being given over to the Hundred. In any case, Bazball now meets its biggest Test as the top six faces combinations of Cummins/Starc/Hazlewood/Boland and Neser.
In the very short-term England have injury issues. Leach is out, Anderson has been out, Stokes hasn’t bowled since before Christmas, Archer is absent and we should expect more rotation in the England bowling line up anyway, it being a big ask to expect Anderson at 42 and Broad at 36 to play five tests on the spin and combinations of Potts/Tongue/Woakes and others are going to be required over the next six weeks. Australia have an injury issue of their own with Hazlewood missing the World Test Championship this weekend.
I am tempted to think the outright series prices are the wrong way round, and Australia for the series at 13/10 is a much more attractive price than England’s. Weather allowing I don’t see any draws, the pace of scoring these days means many games aren’t going to go five days. If I was after a correct score, Australia 3-2 at 6/1 (Bet365) would be the play.
Aside from dealing with Australia’s bowling attack England’s key priority is going to be restricting the two major Australian batsmen Steve Smith and Marnus Labuschagne. Their test match statistics tell the story.
Smith averages 60 in 169 Test innings, Labuschagne who first came into the side as Smith’s concussion replacement in the English Ashes series four years ago, averages 58 in 64 Test innings. In the Top Australian series batsman market the two are unsurprisingly favourites, with Travis Head the most attractive price of the next three realistic winners in the market but a point and a half lower than last week since his big hundred this week at the Oval:
Smith 6/4
Labuschagne 5/2
Head 13/2
Khawaja 7/1
Warner 8/1
Bar 22/1
Since the last English Ashes series Labuschagne has spent four years at Glamorgan dealing with the Dukes bowl and pulverising county attacks, is a fixture at 3 in the Australian line-up and is set for s huge series.
10 points Marnus Labuschagne top Australian series scorer at 5/2 William Hill, StarSports 21/10 Betfair Sportsbook/Paddy Power
What-Ifs?
Some of the key questions facing England ahead of the first Ashes Test at Edgbaston next week
Who will replace Jack Leach?
Leach is an important bowler for England, he’s bowled 200 more overs than any other bowler under Ben Stokes’ captaincy and holds up and end allowing the fast bowlers to be rotated at the other, keeping them fresh. Especially if Stokes cannot bowl, see below, this is a big loss. During the winter both Rehan Ahmed and Will Jacks played, but Ahmed is inexperienced and Jacks more of a part-time spinner. Moeen Ali has been persuaded out of Test retirement and into the squad for the first two tests as a stock bowler and also he lengthens the batting. It remains to be seen whether the final side will contain the extra seamer with Stokes and Root in support or contain Moeen.
Will James Anderson be fit and for how long?
Anderson suffered a groin strain playing for Lancashire a few weeks ago and was kept out of the Ireland test as a precaution. All the signs are that he will play the first Test but at 42 years old the nature of this series, five Tests in six weeks, does him no favours. It remains a long shot that he would play all five Tests.
Is Ben Stokes going to be able to bowl?
Stokes struggled badly with the chronic injury to his left knee during the winter and then bowled one over for Chennai Super Kings in the IPL. He didn’t bowl in the Ireland Test and visibly winced a couple of times in the field. He expects to be ready to bowl in the Ashes, important as in doing so it balances the side from the all-rounder position but it remains to be seen whether he’ll be hobbling around and putting himself through 12 overs a day during the series.
Should Zak Crawley have been dropped?
Crawley averages 27.6 in Tests and hasn’t convinced yet in the way that his opening partner Duckett has. Perhaps he has survived for now due the paucity of other opening options capable of playing in a Bazball style, which doesn’t suit Burns, Sibley and Hameed to name a few and the reluctance to make room for a Foakes, say by promoting Stokes to opener.
Was making Jonny Bairstow wicketkeeper the right call?
Bairstow’s four centuries and average of 75.6 last summer playing as a specialist batsman meant his return to the side was assured once he had recovered from injury. In his absence the huge success of Harry Brook at 5 created a logjam of middle order batsmen that Bairstow has been introduced back as batsman-wicketkeeper at the expense of the unfortunate Ben Stokes.
That probably costs the side in the field at some point in the Ashes series but could all being well mean a couple of hundred runs extra from the number seven position.
Do England still want flat pitches despite losing express pace options in Jofra Archer and Olly Stone?
Stokes admitted last month he wants pitches to suit his fast bowlers and quick pitches would suit his fast-scoring batting line-up. Have the injuries to Archer, Stone and the fragility of Wood all three the main “enforcers” changed that?
StattoBets Dave Monthly Subscription - Soccer - Tennis - Darts
Stattobets write ups, analysis and bets are available to monthly subscribers.
Results = points bet 26860 profit +1132.47 ROI +4.22% Full details here
Monthly subs are £50 a month and can be cancelled at any time. You can sign up here.
Betting Emporium results
The detailed results page has been updated on 1st January 2023. They can be found by clicking RESULTS
If you bet £10 per point on every recommended bet since launch you would be winning + £61,936 All bets have an ROI +2.91%
A £4000 bank betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth £61,936 a 1448% increase
