Weekly Articles "Road to Riches" by Rich 'Tighty' Prew
The Road to Riches: Weekend of 19th-20th March
Coming up this weekend
- Horse Racing Over the jumps at Fontwell, Kempton, Newcastle and Uttoxeter and on the all-weather at Wolverhampton.
- Football, The FA Cup Quarter Finals
- Formula One, the Bahrain Grand Prix
- Rugby Union, the final weekend of the Six Nations
- Cricket the second Test between the West Indies and England in Barbados continues
- Golf The WGC-Dell Matchplay in Austin, on the USPGA the Corales Punta Cana Championship and the Qatar Masters
- Tennis the ATP Miami Open next week
Free tip
Super Rugby: Crusaders v Blues 06.05am Saturday
Since the advent of COVID a Super Rugby Tournament including teams from Argentina, South Africa and Japan has morphed into a Super Rugby Pacific competition involving 5 teams each from Australia and New Zealand plus teams from Fiji and the Pacific Islands.
The Crusaders were the class of the larger Super Rugby tournament winning three editions in a row from 2017-2019, were leading again after seven rounds in 2020 when the tournament was cancelled and won Super Rugby Aoterea, the version for the New Zealand sides during the lockdowns, in 2021.
As you would expect this is a side stacked with All Blacks and so far in this new-ish season the Crusaders have won 3 out of 4 games, their first loss coming to the Chiefs 21-24 last weekend
The Blues have spent the last decade in the lower half of the Super Rugby standings and the weakest of the New Zealand sides. Now, they are more competitive
Blues last decade lower half of standings and weakest of NZ provinces now more competitive. Beauden Barrett was a significant signing near the beginning of the pandemic, played in 2020 then took a year’s sabbatical in Japan before returning this season. With him in the line up the Blues have won 2 out of 3 games beating the Highlanders 32-20 and the Chiefs 24-22 and only losing to the Hurricanes 32-33 with a very physical style of rugby. They are not going to be an easy “out” for any opponent this season.
I was going to suggest this, but no prices up with under 24 hours to go until match
11 points Blues +7 at 10/11
instead, lets go for the outright upset
10 points Blues to win at 11/5 with William Hill
Blockbuster
Russell Wilson’s trade from the Seattle Seahawks to the Denver Broncos for multiple first round draft picks and players exacerbates the current imbalance between Quarterback talent in the two NFL conferences the AFC and the NFC.
Now the likes of Drew Brees and Wilson through retirement and trade moved out of the NFC without young top quarterbacks emerging into the conference franchises through the draft
Contrast that with the AFC, where we find the following star players. As well as now Wilson, the draft has brought the conference Patrick Mahomes, Justin Herbert, Joe Burrow, Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson and more.
In the NFC Aaron Rodgers has this month re-upped with the Packers but beyond that there is Matthew Stafford and the next tier, Kyler Murray and Dak Prescott before we are into the likes of Kirk Cousins.
There is a stark imbalance of talent from one conference to the next, one that this year’s draft is unlikely to rectify with only a few potential first round draft picks and amongst them no “locks” or guaranteed potential superstars.
Perhaps this is a reason why Tom Brady’s retirement lasted a month, the NFC looks wide open without the number of franchise quarterbacks that the AFC currently has.
With so many teams struggling at Quarterback, and no depth of talent at the position, this explains why a team like the Washington Commanders, with a strong roster at most positions but no long term quarterback option, has become the latest team to trade for Carson Wentz after his one season in Indianapolis. Four or five teams are chasing DeShaun Watson in what will be the next blockbuster trade then the likes of Jimmy Garoppolo and Jamies Winston are next on the block.
For now, the Buccaneers, Packers and Rams look superbly placed in the NFC. In the AFC, to get to the superbowl you are going to need to have one of these star quarterbacks and/or a top top defense to stop these juggernaut offenses that are going to be seen in the division over the next 5-10 years.
StattoBets Dave Monthly Subscription
Stattobets write ups, analysis and bets are available to monthly subscribers.
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Betting Emporium results
The detailed results page has been updated on 1st January as have the spreadsheets with the detailed bets. They can be found by clicking RESULTS
If you bet £10 per point on every recommended bet since launch you would be winning + £52,282.40 All bets have an ROI +2.62%
A £4000 bank betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth £56,282.40 a 1307% increase
The Road to Riches: Weekend of 12th-13th March
Coming up this weekend
- Horse Racing Over the jumps at Ayr, Hereford and Sandown and on the all-weather at Chelmsford City, Lingfield and Wolverhampton.
- Football, Premier League fixtures include Manchester United v Tottenham Hotspur
- Rugby Union, the fourth weekend of the Six Nations
- Cricket the first Test between the West Indies and England in Antigua continues
- Golf The Valspar Championship on the USPGA and the Steyn City Championship on the DP World Tour
- Tennis Indian Wells continues
The Cheltenham Festival 15th-18th March
Neil’s package for next week will be available at here, cost is £199
Free tip
Gallagher Premiership Bristol v Harlequins 3pm Sunday
Bristol, having made the League play-offs last year, have been inconsistent to poor all season with only six wins from their 17 league games to date. Since they beat Newcastle 37-21 at home in early February they’ve lost to London Irish 32-49, to Worcester 19-14, beat Wasps 31-19, and most recently lost to Bath 29-27. These losses include to the bottom two sides.
Harlequins are 3rd in the table having won 11-7 games having recently beat Newcastle 24-10, Worcester 29-21 away and Wasps 29-24 at home after successive losses to Saracens and Sale.
The match is a replay of last year’s play-off semi that Quins won 43-36 after extra time coming from 28-0 down, following which then went on to beat Exeter 40-38 in the final.
A far more consistent and reliable team this season, to see the match as a “pick-em” on the handicap is interesting, even with Quins the away side that has the look of a generous price
15 points Harlequins to win at 10/11 generally.
Diversify
The long-awaited Chinese dominance appears to be closer in World snooker.
Ding Junhui kicked it off in 2005, winning the China Open and UK Championship. Whilst he is still the most decorated Chinese player with 14 ranking titles which includes 3 UK Championship victories he is now out of the Top 16 in the rankings.
The unpredictable Liang Wenbo won the English Open in 2016. He's been in more ranking finals and showed some good form at the European Masters last week.
Yan Bingtao has a ranking title under his belt and won last year’s Masters, beating John Higgins in the final from behind. Zhao Xintong won the 2021 UK Championship and followed that up with the German Masters title recently. Then last week 21 year old Fan Zhengyi won the European Masters final beating Ronnie O'Sullivan in the decider.
There are the likes of Zhou Yuelong, Cao Yupeng, Xiao Guodong, Zhang Anda, Yu Delu, Tian Pengfei, Li Hang, Yuan Sijun and Si Jiahui to name some more potential ranking event winners.
Is there a potential World Champion amongst Zhao, Bingtong and the others? It's the only thing missing now from China.
More generally the era of a few years ago where the same 4-5 players, most of whom have been on the scene since the early 1990s, won every event appears now behind us. Of the last seven ranking events before the Welsh Open whilst Neil Robertson has won two the nationalities of the winners are China (3), Australia (2), Belgium and Iran. Furthermore of the seven youngest current tour players with a ranking title none are British. Then at the Welsh Open 47 year old Joe Perry became the second oldest ranking event winner, whilst ranked 45th in the world. Predictable it is not!
StattoBets Dave Monthly Subscription
Stattobets write ups, analysis and bets are available to monthly subscribers.
Monthly subs are £50 a month and can be cancelled at any time. You can sign up here.
Betting Emporium results
The detailed results page has been updated on 1st January as have the spreadsheets with the detailed bets. They can be found by clicking RESULTS
If you bet £10 per point on every recommended bet since launch you would be winning + £52,282.40 All bets have an ROI +2.62%
A £4000 bank betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth £56,282.40 a 1307% increase
The Road to Riches: Weekend of 5th-6th March
Coming up this weekend
- Horse Racing Over the jumps at Doncaster, Kelso and Newbury and on the all-weather at Lingfield and Southwell.
- Football, Premier League fixtures include Manchester City v Manchester United
- Cricket the first Test between the West Indies and England in Antigua next week
- Golf The Players Championship at TPC Sawgrass
- Tennis Indian Wells next week
The Cheltenham Festival 15th-18th March
Neil’s package will be available here, cost is £199
Free tip
Gallagher Premiership Saracens v Leicester Tigers Saturday 3pm
Second placed Saracens host league leaders Leicester in this match albeit Leicester are 16 points clear at the top of the having only lost two of their seventeen league matches this season.
Saracens lost 33-30 at London Irish two weeks ago and are a very solid side even without their current six nations players. They can field the likes of Goode and Lozowski in the backs and the Vunipola brothers and Ben Earl in the forwards and furthermore they come into the match off 14 days rest.
Leicester were behind at half time last weekend at home to Gloucester but eventually gained a bonus point win 35-23
In round three early in the season Leicester needed a late penalty try to win 13-12, and this game is likely to be equally close. Leicester’s formidable pack is difficult to best. Saracens are four point favourites in the handicap market, and the value is with the visitors and the points
12 points Leicester +4 points at Evens Bet365 and 10/11 generally
Super
A Los Angeles Rams Super-Bowl win could be the impetus for contending teams to start trading draft picks and long-term success plans by going all in by acquiring big-name free agents to “buy” a championship.
The 2021 Rams weren’t the first attempt at a super team in the NFL. The Rams do have some drafted star players in Aaron Donald and Cooper Kupp but their moves bringing in Matthew Stafford, Von Miller, and Odell Beckham Jr were the highlights of the franchise largely outsourcing to roster their stars.
Maybe setting a path to go seven years without drafting a player with a first-round pick, as the Rams are doing/have done is never going to be the standard plan of the future, but perhaps we shouldn’t be surprised if quarterbacks like Aaron Rodgers and Russell Wilson try to force their way onto the next super team. The era of super teams is upon us. It also may be the end of an era where quarterbacks stay many years in one place, especially after seeing zero Super Bowl appearances in the last 11 seasons for Drew Brees in New Orleans (2010-20), Ben Roethlisberger in Pittsburgh (2011-21), and Aaron Rodgers in Green Bay (2011-21).
If Matthew Stafford, with an 8-68 record in Detroit against Winning Teams Before 2021, can leave the Lions and instantly win a Super Bowl, why can’t any other top 12 quarterback do the same?
StattoBets Dave Monthly Subscription
Stattobets write ups, analysis and bets are available to monthly subscribers.
Monthly subs are £50 a month and can be cancelled at any time. You can sign up here.
Betting Emporium results
The detailed results page has been updated on 1st January as have the spreadsheets with the detailed bets. They can be found by clicking RESULTS
If you bet £10 per point on every recommended bet since launch you would be winning + £52,282.40 All bets have an ROI +2.62%
A £4000 bank betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth £56,282.40 a 1307% increase
The Road to Riches: Weekend of 26th-27th February
Coming up this weekend
- Horse Racing Over the jumps at Chepstow, Kempton and Newcastle and on the all-weather at Chelmsford City and Lingfield
- Rugby Union The third weekend of the Six Nations
- Football, Premier League fixtures include Leeds v Tottenham
- Golf The Arnold Palmer Invitational at Bay Hill and the Puerto Rico Open on the USPGA
- Tennis Davis Cup Qualifiers next week
The Cheltenham Festival 15th-18th March
Neil’s package will be available here and the cost is £199
Free tip
Gallagher Premiership Leicester Tigers v Gloucester Saturday 3pm
The Leicester Tigers remain top of the league with 14 wins in sixteen games, the latest 24-20 at Bath, their first win there for 11 years. Under coach Steve Borthwick their pack is a formidable unit and there is plenty of young talent meaning the side remains highly competitive even with the current England absences.
This is set to be a real scrap of a game. Gloucester are much improved, sitting 4th in the table with nine wins so far this season already having scored 47 tries in the Premiership, 2 more than the whole of last season when the side was near the bottom of the table throughout. Under their relatively new coaching team Gloucester also have a renowned pack with a dominant maul that has led to 30 of their tries. Louis Rees-Zammit is available, though that’s not where this game is going to be won or lost.
As evidenced by last weekend, when the six Premiership games were settled by an aggregate of 19 points, this is one of the best domestic seasons we have had and this is going to be a very close contest.
11 points Gloucester +6 points 10/11 generally
Switch
The Springboks could reportedly still be set for a switch to the Six Nations in what would be a seismic shift in rugby’s global structure. According to a Daily Mail report, the reigning world champions are intent on joining the Six Nations from 2025. They are committed to the southern-hemisphere partnership and the Rugby Championship until 2025 but according to the report, sources have suggested that if the Springboks join the Six Nations, the plan is not to expand the northern-hemisphere tournament. Instead, the Boks would replace Italy, a controversial move that would undoubtedly enhance the tournament’s competitiveness but would ultimately reduce any chance of a promotion-relegation system in Europe. This has since been denied by the Six Nations, and alternative suggestions of an expansion to a seven-team competition have been mooted.
Since joining the Six Nations in 2000, Italy have finished as wooden spoonists in 16 out of 21 seasons. While they have started overhauling their youth structures, with their U20 team recently claiming a win over England U20 in the youth version of the tournament, those results have yet to translate to their senior team.
The Six Nations last year received a massive cash injection after private-equity company CVC Capital bought a one-seventh stake in the competition. It is believed that CVC is one of the driving forces behind bringing the Springboks into the Six Nations. CVC’s investment in professional rugby is currently worth more than £700m and if they invest in the Springboks they will have a stake in 7 of the world’s top ten test teams.
South African rugby has been gradually aligning with the north. After being left out of Super Rugby in 2020, the four franchises – the Sharks, Vodacom Bulls, Lions and Stormers – joined the newly branded Vodacom United Rugby Championship in 2021 and from next season could play in European tournaments.
StattoBets Dave Monthly Subscription
Stattobets write ups, analysis and bets are available to monthly subscribers.
Monthly subs are £50 a month and can be cancelled at any time. You can sign up here.
Betting Emporium results
The detailed results page has been updated on 1st January as have the spreadsheets with the detailed bets. They can be found by clicking RESULTS
If you bet £10 per point on every recommended bet since launch you would be winning + £52,282.40 All bets have an ROI +2.62%
A £4000 bank betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth £56,282.40 a 1307% increase
The Road to Riches: Weekend of 12th-13th February
Please note, I am away next week, no column.
Coming up this weekend
- Horse Racing Over the jumps at Newbury, Uttoxeter and Warwick and on the all-weather at Lingfield and Wolverhampton
- NFL The Superbowl
- Rugby Union The second weekend of the Six Nations
- Football, the return of the Premier League
- Winter Olympics continues in Beijing
- Golf The Hero Indian Open and on the USPGA the Genesis Invitational
- Tennis ATP events in Delray Beach, Marseillie, Qatar and Rio
Free tip
Gallagher Premiership: Wasps v Bath 3pm Saturday
Wasps have a 50% record so far this season, won seven lost 7. They beat both Leicester and Saracens at home in January then last weekend beat Exeter away to claim another big scalp.
Bath meanwhile, rooted to the bottom of the table (albeit with no relegation this season) had seen their form pick up slightly beating Worcester and Harlequins for their first wins of the season but it was back to the drawing board last weekend with a 40-3 loss at Saracens including a whopping 20 penalties conceded and 49 missed tackles. There is a new coaching team coming in the summer of 2022 but for now they are going to be heavy underdogs for games like this, especially with Wasps improving.
Wasps are 18 point favourites here and I like them to cover.
11 points Wasps -18 at 10/11 generally
Overtime
After Josh Allen’s sensational performance in the AFC Divisional round for the Bills, the current NFL overtime rules did not give him a chance to match Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs who won the toss, took the ball and scored a touchdown, and he did not touch the ball in overtime.
Playoff teams have a 90% win rate in overtime if they win the coin toss (10 out of 11) and 70% of those wins have come from opening drive touchdowns. The bigger picture though shows a more balanced picture. Of the 163 Overtime games (regular season + playoffs) under the current rules, only 35 of them were decided by touchdowns on the first possession of overtime. This implies that whilst winning the coin toss is important, strategy and execution matters as much if not more.
The following week in the Conference Championship overtime the Bengals stopped the Chiefs and then went down the field for a game winning field goal.
There have been alternative overtimes used effectively by the competing and minor leagues for decades. The Alliance of American Football used alternating first-and-goal from the 10-yard line possessions in overtime. If you scored, you went for two. Both teams get a shot. The XFL had alternating, single-play possessions from the 5-yard line, almost the football equivalent of penalty kicks. Team A runs a play, then team B runs a play. You get two points for each successful conversion in a best-of-five scenario. Go until someone is eliminated.
Last year, the Baltimore Ravens proposed a spot-and-choose scenario, which awards the team that wins the coin toss the right to pick where to spot the ball or whether they want to play offense or defense.
Will a change now be proposed and adopted? We’ll wait and see but perhaps the Bengals stop and subsequent win has relieved some of the pressure for change, which would have been immense if Mahomes had scored on the single overtime possession two weeks running in such high profile games.
StattoBets Dave Monthly Subscription
Stattobets write ups, analysis and bets are available to monthly subscribers.
Monthly subs are £50 a month and can be cancelled at any time. You can sign up here.
Betting Emporium results
The detailed results page has been updated on 1st January as have the spreadsheets with the detailed bets. They can be found by clicking RESULTS
If you bet £10 per point on every recommended bet since launch you would be winning + £52,282.40 All bets have an ROI +2.62%
A £4000 bank betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth £56,282.40 a 1307% increase
