Weekly Articles "Road to Riches" by Rich 'Tighty' Prew

The Road to Riches: Weekend of 30th April – 1st May

Posted on 28 Apr 2022 10:47 in Weekly Articles "Road to Riches" by Rich 'Tighty' Prew

Coming up this weekend

Horse Racing On the flat at Doncaster, Goodwood, Newmarket and Thirsk and Over the jumps at Hexham and Uttoxeter
Football, Premier League fixtures include Leeds v Manchester City and Newcastle v Liverpool
Snooker, the World Snooker Championship concludes this weekend
Cricket the IPL Continues
Golf The Wells Fargo Championship next week on the USPGA Tour and the British Masters at the Belfry on the DP Honda World Tour
Tennis ATP Madrid Open

Free tip

The 2000 Guineas, Newmarket by Neil Channing

I definitely don't have much bad to say about the form of Native Trail, the hot favourite in the 2,000 Guineas, who won the Dewhurst as an odds-on favourite at two and who came here and won over the trip at heavy odds-on in The Craven. In official ratings he is a mile clear and you could easily make a case for any odds-against being value. Having said all of that he does sometimes hit a flat spot in his races, the faster ground might be an issue and being drawn out on the wing is not ideal. His trainer is operating at a ridiculous rate of close to 40% winners to runners and I don't think I'd like to lay him. Luckily we don't have to worry about this conundrum as the 1/5th 1234 that a few bookmakers are offering gives us a great chance to have a value each-way bet and be happy to at least place.

I've spoken before about the Favourite/Longshot bias and how the exchanges reflect a true picture of a horses chance to win but the bookies have to be careful when they are offering such generous place terms and they will make the outsiders a fair bit under the exchange. The ones that are 33/1 with bookies can often drift to 70.0 or 80.0 on exchanges and we don't want to give away the value of our extra place by taking a bad price. For that reason I'll focus on the six runners that are under 33/1 which are not Native Trail...

Coroebus is the stablemate of Native Trail and on form they are pretty close as this one won his maiden, then got caught on the line in a Group 2 here before winning a Group 3 here at odds-on over this trip pretty easily. He won't mind this drying ground but he is drawn right on the other wing for his first race of the season. The trainer seemed to suggest he wasn't quite ready or he'd be better in time and he took him to a racecourse gallop instead of a trial. It's not ideal and doesn't make me think solid each-way especially when the market vibes going into the week of The Craven were bad.

Perfect Power won the Norfolk at Royal Ascot and later the Prix Morny so he has great juvenile form but six furlongs was the furthest he went. This year he was favourite and comfortably won The Greenham over seven furlongs but if you make an each-way bet you must avoid losing both bets for the same reason and if he doesn't stay it'll be hard to finish in the places. Easy one to cross off.

Point Lonsdale bolted up in his maiden and then was sent to The Chesham at Royal Ascot, which would be the race that Aidan O'Brien would send his slower staying two year olds to. After winning that he won a Group 3 at 1/8 and a Group 2 at 1/6 before getting beaten when odds-on by Native Trail in the National Stakes again over seven furlongs. This one will surely stay and obviously Aidan O'Brien can get his horses ready but I don't really want to back a horse on their seasonal debut when we don't know they have trained on and they are up in trip.

Luxembourg won his maiden, then a Group 2 at odds-on before winning the Futurity at odds-on again so we haven't really seen him have to battle yet. All his races have been over a mile but apart from the coming here without a trial I'm slightly put off by his head carraige plus the fact this ground will be faster than any he has raced on.

Checkedandchallenge is an interesting runner who we know will stay, as last time out he won over the trip at Newcastle in a Listed Race on all-weather finals day. This is a big step up in class, his first time on grass and he is bred to want cut in the ground so he isn't solid for an each-way bet.

Eydon was slightly unlucky on his debut over a mile on the all-weather last year and this year he was beaten on the line in a photo in his novice race also over a mile on the all-weather. It was his last run that really quickened the pulse though, as he could be called the winner a long way from home when he cruised into the race and swept round the field. That was a Listed Race and he is up in class here but he stays further than this and looks like a possible Derby Prospect for me so I'm sure they'd be happy for him to be held-up and come late here and if he is 2nd or 3rd we'll all be happy at these prices.

I'm having 10 Points each-way Eydon at 22/1 1/5th 1234 with Spreadex, (I would happily take 20/1 and I think you can get 25/1 if you are quick but make sure you get the valuable four places).

Before I go I should maybe mention that The Tote are operating the World Pool at Newmarket which basically means people from all around the world are ploughing into the horses on 2,000 Guineas day meaning some will get very overbet and because of their Tote Guarantee, (it's a bit like BOG...you get the biggest of the SP or the Tote Dividend), it does mean the take-out is way lower and the Tote offers real value. They are also doing a free to enter betting tournament with cash prizes which you can find details of on their website. I say all this simply because a lot of people in racing say that a strong Tote would be good for the betting landscape but they forget that we do all need to help that to happen.

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Root Cause

Joe Root has stepped down as England Test captain having succeeded Sir Alastair Cook as captain in 2017 and ends his tenure with the most matches (64) and wins (27) as an England men's Test skipper.

Root's decision follows a run of just one win in England's last 17 Test matches, stretching back to February 2021, which ended with a series defeat in the West Indies last month.

Root is currently England's second-highest Test run-scorer of all time, trailing only Cook, while Root's 14 centuries as captain helped him to a record tally of 5,295 runs for an England captain.

His resignation follows the sackings of England men's cricket managing director Ashley Giles and head coach Chris Silverwood, with the pair dismissed before the West Indies tour after a 4-0 Ashes defeat in Australia over the winter.

Vice-captain Ben Stokes is the choice to replace Root, from what must have been a very short list of options, but probably not an ideal candidate given his injury concerns.

In many ways Root wasn’t a natural captain and this played out in the last 18 months with many strategy mistakes on the field and an absence of feel for situations. Mainly though he hasn’t received much support on or off the field.

On the field this was most evident in the batting line up which has underperformed throughout his captaincy. In test matches whilst captain Root was far and away England’s best performer. Consider:

Most tons: Joe Root 14 (33% of total ENG tons)

Most 50+ scores: Joe Root 40 (22% of total)

Most runs: Joe Root 5295 (16% of total)

Haphazard selection policies also didn’t help, with often excessive rotation and a clear focus on major white ball tournaments, then as the cherry on top the odd decision to leave both Anderson and Broad out of recent West Indies tour. More generally Root was asked to front a team picked from a system which isn't working or producing a conveyor belt of test ready talent. Whoever succeeds him will face the same problems

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Betting Emporium results

The detailed results page has been updated on 1^st January as have the spreadsheets with the detailed bets. They can be found by clicking RESULTS

If you bet £10 per point on every recommended bet since launch you would be winning + £52,282.40 All bets have an ROI +2.62%

A £4000 bank betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth £56,282.40 a 1307% increase

The Road to Riches: Weekend of 23rd-24th April

Posted on 20 Apr 2022 11:10 in Weekly Articles "Road to Riches" by Rich 'Tighty' Prew

Coming up this weekend

Horse Racing Over the jumps at Sandown, on the flat at Doncaster, Haydock, Leicester, Ripon and on the all-weather at Wolverhampton
Football, Premier League fixtures include Arsenal v Manchester United and Liverpool v Everton
Snooker, the World Snooker Championship continues this weekend
Cricket the IPL Continues
Motor Racing, the Emilia Romagna Grand Prix at Imola
Golf The Mexico Open next week on the USPGA Tour and the Catalunya Championship on the DP Honda World Tour
Tennis ATP BMW and Madrid Opens

Free tip

Gallagher Premiership Harlequins v Leicester 3pm Saturday

In the final stages of the regular season and the run to the four team play-offs, this match featuring first and third in the league.

Reigning Premiership Champions Harlequins are a team with a very attacking style and won the title scoring 40 and 38 points in the two games in last year’s play-offs having finished regular season in 4^th place. Led by the half back axis of Danny Care and Marcus Smith they narrowly failed to reach the quarter-finals of the Champions cup last weekend, winning their home second leg 33-20 against Montpellier.

Leicester have a very different style based off forward power and a good kicking game allied to a lot of young academy talent that has come through. They are superbly coached by Steve Borthwick a leading candidate to succeed Eddie Jones as England coach when the time comes. A very difficult team to beat with only three losses in the league this season and the second best defensive record in league.

That said Harlequins are at home and priced up as home underdogs for a game which should be close, and they have a lot of firepower.

10 points Harlequins to win at 11/10 William Hill and SkyBet

Not a level playing field

A new proposal for the English domestic cricket game is being mooted. It involves the creation of a 12-team Premier League to replace the existing model of 10 teams in Division One and eight in Division Two, as a way to bridge the gap to international cricket as well as reducing the overall number of County Championship fixtures, creating more time for players to rest and prepare.

A new compensation system could be introduced rewarding teams for producing players, but making it easier for players to move counties. Under the current system, players can only be approached from June 1 in the season their contracts expire.

The high-performance review was launched to address the struggles of the England Test team and the series defeat to the West Indies, which extended the a losing run to one victory in their last 17 matches, has injected greater urgency into the process.

Any reforms advocated by the high-performance review would need to be approved by two-thirds of county chairmen or 12 of the 18 first-class counties and those counties who consistently remained in the second tier, below an enlarged top division, might fear that if they did not improve their performances their long-term first-class status could be jeopardised.

A new structure would lead to a reduction in the volume of County Championship cricket, with the current structure of 14 games per county widely viewed as leading to a reduction in intensity, forcing fast bowlers to either be rested or bowl well within themselves, and also make it harder for ground staff to prepare good quality pitches.

Under the proposed restructuring, the 12 teams in a Premier League would each play 11 matches, meeting each opponent either home or away. The six teams in the second tier would each play ten games, playing each other side in their division both home and away.

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Stattobets write ups, analysis and bets are available to monthly subscribers.

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Betting Emporium results

The detailed results page has been updated on 1^st January as have the spreadsheets with the detailed bets. They can be found by clicking RESULTS

If you bet £10 per point on every recommended bet since launch you would be winning + £52,282.40 All bets have an ROI +2.62%

A £4000 bank betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth £56,282.40 a 1307% increase

The Road to Riches: Weekend of 16th-17th April

Posted on 13 Apr 2022 15:00 in Weekly Articles "Road to Riches" by Rich 'Tighty' Prew

Coming up this weekend

Horse Racing Over the jumps at Carlisle and Haydock, on the flat at Brighton, Musselburgh, Newbury and Nottingham
Football, the FA Cup semi-finals including Manchester City v Liverpool
Snooker, the World Snooker Championship starts this weekend
Rugby Union, the European Champions Cup Last sixteen second leg ties
Cricket the IPL Continues
Golf The Zurich Classic of New Orleands next week on the USPGA Tour and ISPS Handa Championship on the DP Honda World Tour
Tennis ATP Barcelona and Serbia

Free tip

European Champions Cup, Last Sixteen Second Leg

Exeter Chiefs v Munster 3pm Saturday

As expected the majority of the games in the first leg ties last weekend were very close with winning margins of 19, 19, 14, 13, 6, 5, 5 and 1 points across the 8 ties, interesting with six away wins from the higher seeded sides.

One of the two home wins saw Exeter beat Munster 13-8 and the two sides now go to the febrile atmosphere of Thormond Park, Limerick for the second leg on Saturday.

Exeter looked on their way to a sizeable victory after first-half tries by full-back Stuart Hogg and flanker Jacques Vermeulen put them 10 points clear. However injury-hit Munster rallied after Exeter were reduced to 13 men for a quarter of the second period in which Munster scored 8 points before Hogg's drop-goal late on gave Exeter a five point lead to take to Ireland in the latest step of their attempt to win a second Champions cup in three seasons.

This should also be a very close game, with Exeter more vulnerable than they have been in recent seasons having lost 9 games in the Gallagher Premiership. Munster meanwhile sit fourth in the URC.

I like Munster to win the game with a real chance of overturning the five point deficit with a few key players back like Carbery and O’Mahoney (if Tadhg Beirne is back, a very decent chance) and the spread assumes they just fall short

11 points Munster -4 points at 10/11 generally

Not a level playing field

The English Premiership Rugby’s salary cap was reduced this season to £5m from £6.4m, aiming to help clubs cope with the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic, and as a result it will be become harder for English to compete for European Championships.

The main competitive issue is the comparison with the French Top14 clubs operating to a €10m cap, which has been reduced in recent seasons but still way above the other Northern Hemisphere leagues whilst there is no salary cap for sides in Wales, Scotland or Ireland and Welsh regions for example are spending £5m+.

From next season the marquee signings permitted by Premiership clubs, whose salaries sit outside the cap, will be reduced from two to one. The headline limit is due to return to a minimum of £6.4m by the start of the 2024-25 season at the latest, but there could be further pressure from some clubs to raise the ceiling before then if their competitiveness in Europe is compromised.

The United Rugby Championship has been considering the introduction of a wage cap, although officials feel it would be difficult to introduce due to the variety of currencies and ownership models of the clubs who compete in the tournament, who are based in five countries: Ireland, Scotland, Wales, Italy and South Africa.

StattoBets Dave Monthly Subscription

Stattobets write ups, analysis and bets are available to monthly subscribers.

Monthly subs are £50 a month and can be cancelled at any time. You can sign up here.

Betting Emporium results

The detailed results page has been updated on 1^st January as have the spreadsheets with the detailed bets. They can be found by clicking RESULTS

If you bet £10 per point on every recommended bet since launch you would be winning + £52,282.40 All bets have an ROI +2.62%

A £4000 bank betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth £56,282.40 a 1307% increase

The Road to Riches: Weekend of 9th-10th April

Posted on 7 Apr 2022 12:03 in Weekly Articles "Road to Riches" by Rich 'Tighty' Prew

Coming up this weekend

Horse Racing Over the jumps at Aintree including the Grand National, Bangor and Newcastle, on the flat at Thirsk and on the all-weather at Wolverhampton.
Football, Premier League fixtures include Manchester City v Liverpool
Formula One, the Australian Grand Prix in Melbourne
Snooker, the World Snooker Championship starts next weekend
Rugby Union, the European Champions Cup Last sixteen first leg ties
Cricket the IPL Continues
Golf The RBC Heritage Tournament next week on the USPGA Tour
Tennis the ATP Monte Carlo Masters

Aintree festival by Neil Channing

After an amazing Cheltenham winning just under 600 points with an ROI +55.7% we move onto Aintree. If any of you would like to see the Cheltenham results in full or read the write ups by Neil for each day please just email support@bettingemporium.com and we'll get you access.

The full package for the Grand National festival between 7^th-9^th April is now available for £99 here

Free tip

European Champions Cup, Last Sixteen First Leg

Sale v Bristol 1pm Saturday

The Last sixteen of the European Champions Cup has an unusual look. COVID issues primarily for the French sides meant cancelled matches in the pool stages and strong teams like Toulouse, Montpellier and Clermont are in the bottom half of the pool qualifiers.

This tie features two English sides, Sale finished 5^th in Pool A with 2 wins, a cancelled match draw and a loss and Bristol 4^th in Pool B with three wins out of 4 (including two cancelled matches, one recorded as a draw and the other a 28-0 win after the Scarlets were stuck in South Africa) and Bristol have home advantage for the second leg in this new format for the first knockout round.

That doesn’t reflect the relative strengths of the two sides this season though. In the Gallagher Premiership Sale are on the cusp of the play-offs in 5^th with 9 wins and 3 draws in their 20 matches. Bristol have been very inconsistent with only six wins in their 19 matches to sit 10^th in the table

These are the first two leg ties in the European Champions Cup and I doubt many will be effectively decided before the return legs and conservative play could be the order of the day. Sale are about to go through a changing of the guard ahead of a tighter salary cap next season with two of their world class South African contingent leaving and more domestic recruits on their way. For now though they should win this first leg by a score or two.

11 points Sale -5 points at 10/11 generally

Overtime

NFL Overtime rules were modified last week at the NFL’s annual meeting, by a 29–3 vote with a proposal submitted jointly by the Colts and Eagles going into the rulebook. The change will guarantee both teams get a possession in overtime (but for the playoffs only), shifting from the previous format in which a touchdown on the extra period’s first possession could end the game.

This is a response to January’s divisional playoff game between the Chiefs and the Bills which ended without Josh Allen and the Buffalo offense touching the ball part a larger trend over the 12 years since the current format went in for playoff games. Of the 12 playoff games that have gone to overtime since, 10 were won by the team that won the coin toss, and seven of those 10 were won on the first possession.

Part of the reason this was so lopsided is the talent influx of great young quarterbacks like Mahomes and Allen alongside veterans like Brady, Rodgers and Brees having a distinct edge as a result of winning the coin toss because the league’s best Quarterbacks became too hard to stop in one-off situations.

Whilst this isn’t exactly a creative solution its perceived to be better for fans, because both Quarterbacks now get the ball and thus essentially this is a new rule for viewership and entertainment purposes

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The Road to Riches: Weekend of 2nd-3rd April

Posted on 31 Mar 2022 09:49 in Weekly Articles "Road to Riches" by Rich 'Tighty' Prew

Coming up this weekend

Horse Racing Over the jumps at Ayr, Chepstow, Hereford, Newbury, Plumpton and on the all-weather at Lingfield and Wolverhampton.
Football, Premier League fixtures include Manchester United v Leicester City
Cricket the IPL Continues
Golf The Masters next week in Augusta
Tennis the ATP US Clay Court Championships and ATP Morocco

Aintree festival by Neil Channing

The full package for the Grand National festival between 7^th-9^th April is now available for £99 here

Free tip

The Masters, April 7^th-10th

Viktor Hovland finished 21st last year in his first attempt in the Masters as a pro having finished low amateur in 32^nd in 2019 when he was the US Amateur champion, This year, and recent form is an important indicator of a good Masters performance, Hovland has five top 10 finishes (including the Players Championship, the Arnold Palmer and the HSBC) and a win in Dubai, his sixth as a pro on the way to a world number 3 ranking.

We know Augusta is about length. It’s 7,400+ yards long but plays closer to 7,800 as the holes are mown against the grain/away from the hole. Hovland ranks 35^th of 213 season to date on the PGA Tour for driving distance and 57^th of 213 on the “distance to apex” stat. Whilst he is not overwhelmingly powerful, he’s long enough.

He comes into his own in two other areas though. Firstly ball striking where since the beginning of 2019-20 season Hovland is one of only 17 of 200+ players to average at least 1 full stroke gained tee-to-green per round. Players on the PGA tour gain 2 or more strokes on the field tee-to-green in about 19% of rounds played. Hovland has done this 33.8% of the time over the last 3 seasons, the 13th-highest rate of any player.

Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green incorporates short game shots, like chips and bunker shots. When you isolate just performance off the tee and on approach, his numbers are even more impressive. Hovland has averaged 1.22 Strokes Gained: Ball-Striking (off-the-tee plus approach) per round over the last three seasons. In that span, only three players have averaged more: Collin Morikawa (+1.39), Jon Rahm (+1.30) and Justin Thomas (+1.25).

He spends lot of time hitting fairways. He hits them 67%. More impressively, he’s on the green in regulation 76% of the time. 44^th driving accuracy percentage

Secondly last season Hovland rose from 40th to 6th in birdie average. Since the 2019-20 season began, Hovland has recorded six birdies-or-better in a round 43 times, tied for 10th-most of any player. This season he is 4^th in birdie average.

All in all, looks like a player that should be in contention here sitting just inside the top ten in the market.

As we get closer to the tournament it could be that friendly neighbourhood bookmaker marketing departments will be offering us extra places but for now the best terms on offer are as follows:

10 points each way Viktor Hovland 20/1 Betfred 1/5 the odds 6 places, 18/1 generally either 5 or 6 places.

All Change

It has been a dramatic NFL off-season with a number of huge trades and within this activity there has been a power shift: Every single big trade has involved the top player moving from an AFC team to another AFC team or from an NFC team to an AFC team. The only trade involving a player going from AFC to NFC is Carson Wentz going from Indianapolis to Washington.

NFC To AFC

Davante Adams Packers to Raiders

Amari Cooper Cowboys to Raiders

Russell Wilson Seahawks to Broncos

Khalil Mack Bears to Chargers

Matt Ryan Falcons to Colts

Robert Woods Rams to Titans

And AFC to AFC

Tyreek Hill Chiefs to Dolphins

Deshaun Watson Texans to Browns

Yannick Ngakoue Raiders to Colts

These nine players have a combined 39 Pro Bowl selections, and amongst them are seven first round draft picks.

The blockbuster deals continue a trend that has seen teams trader premium draft picks in exchange for veteran stars they hope will strengthen their Super Bowl aspirations. To date, seven first-round picks have been used to facilitate trades for some of the game’s biggest names. There are various reasons for this.

Firstly this offseason represented a continued evolution of a player empowerment era. Prominent football players following the blueprint provided by the NBA have taken control of their futures and forced the hands of their teams rather than allowing terms to be dictated to them. Unsatisfied with the state of their rosters, their financial situations or both, they have leveraged their way into more desirable situations. Teams operating within a salary cap then find themselves in difficult situations. I do find it interesting that both the Packers and Chiefs, two winning organisations, decided to move on from their Wide receivers Adams and Hill instead of paying them top of the market deals. The two teams that took them, the Raiders and Dolphins, have minimal playoff appearances over the last 20 years.

Secondly One of the most aggressive teams in the NFL over the last six years, the Los Angeles Rams ripped up the traditional roster construction manual in favuor of a more aggressive approach. Rather than value early draft picks as potential building blocks for a championship roster as is customary, they instead viewed early selections as bargaining chips to secure high-profile veterans who could help them win immediately. The Rams are coming up on their sixth straight offseason without a first-round draft pick, and they have already traded away next year’s as well. Yet they have reached the playoffs in four of the last five campaigns. This offseason some teams are following game plans similar to that of the Rams.

Finally the NFL draft features talent every year, but some draft classes tend to offer fewer obvious “can’t miss” prospects. This year seemingly falls in that category as it appears heavy on quality offensive and defensive linemen, but short on generational talent quarterbacks. The general managers and coaches of the most aggressive teams of this offseason have sized up their rosters and seemingly deemed themselves to be one game-changer away from championship contention. After evaluating the draft, they appear to have determined that this year’s draft classes lacked immediate impact players at their specific area of need. Rather than wait for a rookie to develop, they pulled the trigger on trades that they believe will catapult them to the elite ranks, even if that means parting with a boatload of picks in coming years.

In each of the last two years, aggressive offseason moves in the pursuit of a game-changing talent has delivered teams to Super Bowl victories. In 2020, it was the Tampa Bay Buccaneers’ pursuit of Tom Brady and several new pieces in free agency. Last season saw the Rams, after knocking on the door multiple years while taking the all-in for the present approach, finally achieve their goal. Now, their counterparts feel a sense of urgency to make big, bold leaps in acquiring elite-level talent.

StattoBets Dave Monthly Subscription

Stattobets write ups, analysis and bets are available to monthly subscribers.

Monthly subs are £50 a month and can be cancelled at any time. You can sign up here.

Betting Emporium results

The detailed results page has been updated on 1^st January as have the spreadsheets with the detailed bets. They can be found by clicking RESULTS

If you bet £10 per point on every recommended bet since launch you would be winning + £52,282.40 All bets have an ROI +2.62%

A £4000 bank betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth £56,282.40 a 1307% increase

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