Weekly Articles "Road to Riches" by Rich 'Tighty' Prew

Road to Riches 14th May 2021 (with a guest write up)

Posted on 14 May 2021 11:49 in Weekly Articles "Road to Riches" by Rich 'Tighty' Prew

Whilst Rich 'Tighty' is convalescing one of our friends of BettingEmporium kindly volunteered a guest article that we have pleasure in publishing below.

Checking The Checkers - by Simon 'Tal' Williams

The World Chess Championship takes place in Dubai from late November this year, but the challenger to Magnus Carlsen's crown won't be able to play under his national flag.

Ian Nepomniachtchi is Russian and the World Anti-Doping Agency's ban on Russians competing in major sporting events applies to the main event in chess. "Nepo" was allowed to call himself Russian in the qualifying event, known as the Candidates Tournament, but his 14-game match at the end of this year will see him play under a neutral flag: that of the world chess association, FIDE.

Chess has been caught by its desire to be recognised internationally as a sport, so it gets lumped in with athletics, weightlifting, cycling, triathlon and the rest. This means drug tests will be required for the title match, just like for other sports. Isn't that ridiculous? Well, maybe not.

A 2017 study in the journal 'European Neuropsychopharmacology' found that two drugs in particular offered significant improvements to a sample of chess players' ability and one is well-known as Ritalin. The advantage is not in enhancing speed of thought or the distance the players could calculate moves in advance, but in allowing the players to focus and concentrate for longer.

Concentration and the ability to invest in a position are essential for the best. The great Garry Kasparov was known in his heyday for the intensity of his concentration during games and for the breadth and depth of his preparation for them.

It nevertheless seems odd to be drug testing chess players under WADA regulations and banning a Russian chess player from playing under his flag because of some of his countrymen's actions in more active pursuits. There's no suggestion Nepo - or Carlsen or Kasparov for that matter - has done anything wrong. Top flight chess isn't like you might have seen in 'Queen's Gambit', although there are a number of great players over the years who've battled alcohol issues.

Performance enhancing drugs in chess might be a pharmacological possibility, but the first world chess championship drugs scandal is unlikely to happen this year. Nepo will hope to join the long list of Russian World Chess Champions this winter, even if he can't do so with the white, blue and red flag alongside him.

UEFA EUROS 2020 (11th June - 11th July 2021) - by Stattobets

The much awaited Euros start in less than a month and Dave' Statobets' will be covering them for Bettingemporium included in his monthly subs.

A message from Dave...

The Euros, 'Euro 2020 (?!)' begins on the 11th June 2021, and after a couple of weeks to recharge my batteries, I'll (@Stattobets Dave) be back to cover all of the action.

I'd expect to put out a pre-tournament preview sometime towards the end of the first week in June a few days before things kick off. It obviously depends when firms publish their markets but I would be surprised if the majority of markets aren't priced up by the start of June.

After that, I'll be publishing regular previews with all the bets I fancy. I'll try to look at all the games, but if the pickings are slim there may not be action in every game.

If you're subscribed, remember that Wimbledon takes places from the 28th June-11th July, so will be running at the same time, while the French Open is another event I'll be covering which begins sooner - kicking off on the 30th May.

Stattobets record in 2021

January staked 705 profit +180.28 ROI +25.57%

February staked 800 profit +153.82 ROI +19.23%

March staked 525 profit + 201.21 ROI+ 38.32%

April staked 889 profit +371.18 ROI +41.75%

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Best regards,

Neil, Joe and the Bettingemporium Team

Rich 'Tighty' Prew

Posted on 10 May 2021 10:03 in Weekly Articles "Road to Riches" by Rich 'Tighty' Prew

Some of you may be aware that Rich 'Tighty' Prew had a heart attack last week. He went to hospital in Leicester and had some amazing treatment from the doctors, nurses and paramedics. The good news is that he is fine and on the mend. He is now back at home and he is convalescing.

On doctors advice he is taking sometime off and 'Road to Riche's will have to wait but hopefully we'll have him back for a busy summer of sport.

Best wishes,

Neil, Joe and the Team at Bettingemporium

The Road to Riches: Weekend of 8th - 9th May

Posted on 7 May 2021 17:00 in Weekly Articles "Road to Riches" by Rich 'Tighty' Prew

There is unfortunately no 'Road to Riches' article this week. We hope to return to normal as soon as possible.

Tighty, Neil, Joe and the Team at Bettingemporium

The Road to Riches: Weekend of 1st-2nd May

Posted on 30 Apr 2021 07:24 in Weekly Articles "Road to Riches" by Rich 'Tighty' Prew

Coming up this weekend

Football, Premier League fixtures include Manchester United v Liverpool
Horse Racing, On the flat at Doncaster, Goodwood, Guineas weekend at Newmarket and Thirsk. Over the jumps at Hexham and Uttoxeter
Rugby Union, the European Champions Cup Semi-Finals
Cricket, the IPL continues
Motor Racing, the Portuguese Grand Prix at Portimao
Golf, next week the Wells Fargo Championship at Quail Hollow GC on the USPGA and the Tenerife Championship on the European Tour.
Tennis, ATP Madrid Open

Free tip

The 2000 Guineas by Neil Channing

Tighty must have enjoyed the pain I was put through (editor's note, He didn't) when last week's horse Kitty's Light traded 1.05 and lost after getting battered in the final furlong and despite getting bumped up a place in the Stewards Enquiry. He decided to give me more agony this week and hopefully this one will go more smoothly. I would usually do a Saturday free tip on The Oscars but I'm afraid the change of date meant we missed it. For anyone who has followed the Oscars betting keenly over the years there were seven categories where the favourite didn't win, making it a pretty weird year. Anyway, on to the gee-gees...

The 2,000 Guineas is a good race to bet each-way in as we have 15 runners and five are over 50/1 so we have a decent edge if we take 1/5th 1234 and a really good edge if we can get 1/5th 12345. Generally if you bet any of the ten remaining each-way at close to the Betfair price you'll probably be having a plus ev bet but I will try and narrow it down.

In past years the 2,000 Guineas field splits up and in Newmarket races this year a rail draw has been favoured when the stalls are close to the rail and although the near rail gives you a bigger edge, that has also worked for the far rail. The stalls will be in the middle for this race though and with fifteen runners it's possible that the horses run up the centre in a diamond. If I had to guess though I would say that horses with a middle to low draw may possibly suffer a disadvantage.

Normally when I'm talking about the handicaps I often bet in, I would stress that it's bad to bet horses each-way when they've never been over the trip as their chance of placing does not correlate well with their chance of winning...they win or blow out. The slight problem with applying that rule to a race like the 2,000 Guineas is that horses who have already tried a mile at this stage of their career are often staying types who don't have the pace to win this race. There are just five distance winners in this field Albadri, who is going to be outclassed here, Van Gogh, who looks much more of a Derby horse and who could easily finish placed here without winning and the three trained by Charlie Appleby. Naval Crown, who was beaten fair and square in the Free Handicap and who looks the Godolphin 3rd string I can easily rule out plus he is bigger than 50/1. Master of the Seas looks a headstrong type and pretty quirky too. He won well enough in The Craven but I'm not sure that is great form and the feeling seemed post race to be that One Ruler was the better horse. Now William Buick has picked this one over One Ruler I'm going to take that as a negative for One Ruler, who hasn't been out this season. I do slightly worry about the form of the stable who had almost 40 runners without a winner until Thursday. I think I'll have to break my rule and look at a colt trying the step up in trip.

Looking at the official ratings, we have horses at 114, 114, 116, 117 and 118. It's hard to see those that are rated under 110 improving past all of those without any of those improving further so I'm going to rule out those who have a bit to find although I appreciate these are young colts who can improve rapidly at this stage of their careers. That eliminates Legion of Honour, Albadri, Mystery Smiles, Poetic Flare and Mutasaabeq although the former three were over 50/1 so they were off the list already. Mutasaabeq might go off favourite and is definitely an interesting horse and I don't want to knock the form of his recent win over seven furlongs on this course as the time looked good, but this is a massive step up in class and he isn't the sort of solid bet that will place if he doesn't win...looks like a place lay to me.

I'm basically left with five possibles so let me go through them...

Battleground won the poor relation of the Ascot two year old races that is the Chesham last year and then went to Goodwood and won nicely again in a Group Two over seven. At the Breeders Cup he raced wide and was slow out so his 2nd was a good result plus he proved he stays. The high draw and the guaranteed stamina makes him a bet for me.

Chindit will like the drying ground and looks like he'll stay but he ran badly on this course last year and although it could have been the ground that day it might be that he won't handle the dip. Not one for me.

Wembley is the one of the three O'Brien horses chosen by Ryan Moore so he has to be at least close to favourite. He was beaten four times as a two year old though and we haven't seen what he's like on fast ground. I think he's easy enough to pass on.

Thunder Moon is a massive traveller and he could go short in running here. I could definitely see him winning and the form of his win in the National Stakes where he beat Wembley, Master of the Seas and Lucky Vega should make him close to favourite here. He was beaten here in the Dehurst where the soft ground might have been the problem but there are doubts that he'll stay the trip and I also read somewhere about sons of Zoffany failing to train on as three year olds. At the prices I can leave him.

The final one is Lucky Vega who ran five times at two and was beaten on three occasions. He was really unlucky in that National Stakes where he got murdered in running and the 2nd here in the Middle Park showed he'll like it here but stamina could be a possible doubt so he might be good for a win bet as a saver but not for a place.

I think there is just one obvious solid bet here..

I'm having 12 Points each-way Battleground at 7/1 1/5th 1234 with Betfair Sportsbook/Paddy Power and Spreadex (would happily take 13/2 1/5th 1234 or 6/1 1/5th 12345).

The Elephant in the Room

After the 48 hour announcement, outcry then abandonment of the European Super League plans the proposed changes to the Champions league format by UEFA from 2024 remain on the table. The 12 clubs who instigated the ESL are not expected to be directly punished by UEFA but could be hit by changes to the new Champions League format that would remove the proposal to award places based on historical performances.

Plans to introduce an expanded 36-team “Swiss-style system” from 2024 that would mean every club plays 10 league stage games against 10 opponents were approved by Uefa’s executive committee last week. Already UEFA is under pressure from clubs not involved in the breakaway to reconsider its plan. Its intention is to reserve two of the four new Champions League spots for “clubs with the highest club coefficient over the last five years” that have not qualified for the Champions League but have qualified for the Europa League or Europa Conference League.

That could mean almost guaranteed entry for a club from one of Europe’s top five leagues which has traditionally performed well in its domestic league but has failed to secure a spot after underperforming. There could be alterations before the end of the year that would see the extra places awarded to champions of smaller domestic leagues that might otherwise have to pre-qualify.

Despite the ESL’s collapse the divisions between UEFA and its leading clubs remain strong with particular concern from players about the proposed number of extra games using this moment to fight for more time off and an end to the meat grinder schedule.

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The Road to Riches: Weekend of 24-25th April

Posted on 23 Apr 2021 06:29 in Weekly Articles "Road to Riches" by Rich 'Tighty' Prew

Coming up this weekend

Football, Premier League fixtures include Leeds United v Manchester United
Horse Racing, On the flat at Doncaster, Leicester, Haydock, Ripon. Over the jumps at Sandown
Cricket, the IPL continues
Golf, next week the Valspar Championship on the USPGA and the Tenerife Open on the European Tour.
Tennis, ATP Miami Open

Free tip

The Bet365 Gold Cup at Sandown Saturday 3.40pm by Neil Channing

The Bet365 Gold Cup gives us a rare chance to attack a 16-runner handicap on a Saturday so I'm having a Road to Riches outing. Hopefully I won't ruin the free bet figures. We ought to get the full 16 runners, they must have known we should expect pretty fast ground when they declared, and most will have been aiming at this race for a while. I'm happy with either the 1/4 1234 from the sponsors, the 1/5th 123456 with Sky Bet or you can have a look at SportingBet and RedZone to get 1/4 1234, use the Betfair each-way market where a non-runner doesn't change the 1/4 1234 or go to our friends at Bet Connect who offer the choice of prices from lots of firms but all at the 1/4 1234 terms.

I started out by knocking out all the horses that are over 25/1 on the exchanges. If you are playing each-way to benefit from the good place terms you can't be giving up too much on your win bet and it's really no good betting at a couple of clicks under the exchange price which happens due to the users of the exchange understanding the concept of the favourite/longshot bias and making those outsiders a fair bit bigger than they are with the bookies.

Next I crossed out all that are over ten years old as that seems a bit much to win this one and all those carrying eleven-nine or more as historically you've needed to be little lower in the weights over this extreme trip. Next I crossed off the one horse running out of the handicap which is Supreme Escape who runs with three pounds more than the handicapper thinks he ought to. Some horses now had more than one cross by their name.

My last filter was to get rid of horses that have not run well at three miles two furlongs or more. Not many will have form at today's extreme distance so I didn't want to limit it strictly to distance winners but I felt like they had to have shown they at least stay a bit over three miles. I crossed off Enrilo at this stage as he has only had two races at three miles and two in a touch less and in two of those races he's run poorly, one where he may not have got home. This is his 2nd handicap and as a seven year old he could easily improve here but he's a bit short in the market with the stamina doubt. There was one other with a small stamina doubt but I left him on my shortlist of four and I'll go through them and have a bet...

Irish Prophecy has placed in five of his seven chases, he had a little warm up for this in a hurdle last time and he won a handicap chase very easily the time before. The trip is a tiny bit of a worry as finishing 3rd of six in a race where he faded late and was really just left in 3rd was on the only try over more than three miles. In other races he has stayed on strongly though. Tough to discard but I think I'll leave him although he would have been my saver bet if I had one.

Plan of Attack is a strong and obvious favourite. He is the only Irish runner here and for many that will be enough plus he has the excellent Rachael Blackmore on top. At Cheltenham he fell late on in the Kim Muir when still going Ok and that is over 3m2f so he ought to be Ok over today's trip. At home he's raced a lot on ground with cut in it, but it's not his fault it rains a lot in Ireland. Horses definitely do better the 2nd time they try blinkers and I could easily see him win but earlier in the week he was 12/1 for this just a few days ago and 9/2 looks skinny to me.

Golan Fortune ran 18 times over hurdles winning four and placing in five but he comes here on just his fifth start over fences. He won his opening beginner's chase very easily then ran in a couple of top class novice chases where he ran Ok but was a bit outclassed and in his latest run they stuck him in the Midland's Grand National over four miles, two furlongs and he never really got into it and finished down the field looking like he didn't stay. He is definitely hard to weigh up and that makes him potentially interesting but he just isn't solid enough to take each-way.

Kitty's Light is the one I have left and that's going to be my bet. This one is just a five year old so obviously he is improving and he has only run in six chases winning four and placing in the other two. In his five chases last year he stepped up in trip and improved in each one. He particularly wants this fast ground and this year he has had just a couple of bumpers and a handicap hurdle to get himself fit and then an easy win over 3m2f last time at Kelso where they went for the decent ground. He's up just four pounds for that run and if he jumps a bit better here and gets round safely I think he has a great chance of winning and can at least place.

I'm having 12 Points each-way Kitty's Light at 13/2 1/4 1234 with Bet365 and Red Zone.

Choose your play

With the IPL final confirmed for May 30, it is unlikely any England player involved can take much part in the New Zealand Test series starting on June 2, part of the ongoing challenge to fit Test match plans into an ever more crowded international schedule across all three formats of the game with England's multi-format players especially affected.

For example, how long will Jofra Archer accept the injury risk of bowling long spells in Test cricket ahead of concentrating on T20? He is 25. He could have a decade of IPL earnings ahead of him worth £15m plus including commercial opportunities on top. England are less likely to win the Ashes without Archer’s pace on the hard Australian surfaces but with his IPL contract and place in the white ball team, as well as fitness issues to consider, he is likely at best to only be used sparingly.

It is nine months until the first Test in Australia but already England's Ashes plans look tricky. England’s coaches believe England have a better chance of winning in Australia later this year because players will be fresher for missing some cricket now but building consistency is tough when players come in and out of the team, especially when it affects senior players.

Of the big three, this is a problem for England more so than Australia and India. Australia do not play the same volume of Test cricket so burn out is less of an issue. India's schedules are cleared for IPL and they bar their players from appearing in other tournaments so there is no clash of priorities.

Next winter is busier than ever and the choice that faces the England management and players is working out what is really important and what is not. Do they all desperately want to regain the Ashes or are priorities mixed now? It feels like the picture is cloudier than ever.